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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere

Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technical Cooperation on Verification and its Role in Trust Building

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it will demonstrate how technical cooperation on verification contributed to the softening of tensions and the improvement of trust between the United States and the Soviet Union. Because the scope of this endeavor is too broad to be adequately considered in the length of this work, the primary focus will be on the private and public partnerships on seismic and hydroacoustic test ban treaty verification that were forged between Soviet and American scientists from 1986-1988. In order to orient the analysis within the political-scientific landscape of the time, the discussion begins with a brief description of the arms control landscape in the early 1980s, including both the stances of the Reagan and Gorbachev administrations vis a vis nuclear test ban verification. The section concludes with an analysis of the two primary US-USSR collaborative projects in this key sphere – the test ban verification project conducted by the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and Soviet Academy of Sciences (SAS) and the Joint Verification Experiment (JVE) between the US and Soviet National Laboratories.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Collateral benefits: River flow normalization for endangered fish enabled riparian rejuvenation

Abstract Like most rivers worldwide, the transboundary North American Kootenay/i River has experienced multiple impacts including watershed developments, river channelization, and floodplain clearing, draining, and diking. Construction of Libby Dam was authorized by the 1964 Columbia River Treaty (CRT) between the United States and Canada, and in 1975 began regulating downstream flows for flood risk management and hydropower generation. Following cumulative impacts, the endemic Kootenai River White Sturgeon population collapsed and was designated as endangered in 1994 (U.S. Endangered Species Act). Subsequent Biological Opinions from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service prescribed Libby Dam operations to provide springtime flow pulses for sturgeon spawning. These provided the unanticipated benefit of substantial seedling recruitment of native and introduced riparian cottonwoods and willows. The regulated flow regime was further adaptively managed to provide a more normative (natural) regime, to balance ecological functions with flood risk management and hydropower generation. The broadened ecological considerations would be consistent with the proposed priorities for the modernization of the international CRT. The observed responses revealed that (1) diverse aquatic and riparian organisms are dependent on common river flow characteristics; (2) a normalized flow regime provided substantial ecological benefits; and (3) due to multiple influences, hybrid ecosystems develop along regulated rivers, with a blending of natural and altered processes and communities. For other regulated rivers, we recommend that (1) high springtime flows be allowed, as feasible; (2) followed by the gradual post‐peak recession; and (3) the maintenance of sufficient flows through the warm and dry interval of mid to late summer.

Rood, Stewart B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emigration and Survival of Hatchery‐Reared Coho Salmon Released as Parr and Smolts in a Reintroduction Program

ABSTRACT Releasing fish at varied life stages is an underutilized hatchery‐rearing practice. Columbia River Treaty tribes have been working to reintroduce extirpated Coho Salmon to historical habitats in upper watersheds. This effort has included the release of hatchery‐origin fish at both the parr and smolt life stages in the Yakima River Basin (Washington State USA), a tributary to the Columbia River. We evaluated releases of parr and smolts tagged with passive integrated transponders over 11 brood years. We assessed emigration timing, fish survival, and age‐at‐return for the two release groups. Emigrating juveniles released as smolts had higher survival and arrived downstream earlier than fish released as parr. Survival from release locations to adult return did not significantly differ for the two release groups. However, we observed a difference in apparent marine survival as fish released as parr had mean juvenile‐to‐adult return rates greater than fish released as smolts. Parr releases also tended to return at older age than smolt releases. Our results indicate that implementing practices to reduce homogenization of hatchery releases may produce survival and diversity benefits as fish mature to later life stages. Given the rapid ecosystem changes Pacific Salmon are experiencing throughout their life cycles, practices such as this may have increasing utility and import.

Bosch, William J. [Yakama Nation Fisheries Toppeni↗
DOE OSTI2023

Radioxenon Detection for Monitoring Subsurface Nuclear Explosion

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans the testing of nuclear weapons anywhere on the earth (atmospheric, surface, underwater and subsurface). Identification of nuclear explosions in the atmosphere, surface, and underwater is relatively straightforward considering a wide range of signatures resulting from such an event. However, for a subsurface explosion, most of the signatures traditionally associated with a nuclear explosion are not readily available. Therefore, the international community has increasingly relied on the atmospheric measurement of noble gases to identify subsurface nuclear weapon explosions. This chapter initially covers the basic principles of subsurface nuclear explosion identification and the importance of detecting radioxenon. This is followed by reviewing some of the early radioxenon detection systems that were developed by research groups around the world in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The detection media employed, results from laboratory and field testing, and some challenges/drawbacks for these systems are detailed. The next section of the chapter is dedicated to innovative detector concepts that have emerged in the past ten to fifteen years using novel detection material, algorithms, and signal readout techniques. The advances achieved in terms of energy resolution, coincidence detection efficiencies, system performance, and the minimum detectable concentration are covered. The final section goes over some of the potential improvements that can be incorporated in the design to enhance detector sensitivity and new detection material that can be explored in the field of radioxenon detection.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Review of Global Radioxenon Background Research and Issues

Among the most important problems for the world-wide nuclear explosion monitoring is the interference of naturally occurring and man-made radionuclides. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) frequently detects these interferences using sensitive radionuclide measurement equipment. We commonly refer to the presence of radionuclides that are relevant to the CTBT but do not originate from a nuclear explosion as “background”. Backgrounds are highest near the sources but are known to have regional and global effects on the IMS. This review paper summarizes much of the relevant work in the area of background and discusses issues of interest for nuclear explosion detection.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 1. Tomography

Abstract A function of global monitoring of nuclear explosions is the development of Earth models for predicting seismic travel times for more accurate calculation of event locations. Most monitoring agencies rely on fast, distance-dependent one-dimensional (1D) Earth models to calculate seismic event locations quickly and in near real-time. RSTT (Regional Seismic Travel Time) is a seismic velocity model and computer software package that captures the major effects of three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure on regional seismic travel times, while still allowing for fast prediction speed (milliseconds). We describe updates to the RSTT model using a refined data set of regional phases (i.e., Pn, Pg, Sn, Lg) using the Bayesloc relative relocation algorithm. The tomographic inversion shown here acts to refine the previous RSTT public model ( rstt201404um ) and displays significant features related to areas of global tectonic complexity as well as further reduction in arrival residual values. Validation of the updated RSTT model demonstrates significant reduction in median epicenter mislocation (15.3 km) using all regional phases compared to the iasp91 1D model (22.1 km) as well as to the current station correction approach used at the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (18.9 km).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 2. Path-dependent Travel-time Uncertainty

Abstract The regional seismic travel time (RSTT) model and software were developed to improve travel-time prediction accuracy by accounting for three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure. Travel-time uncertainty estimates are used in the process of associating seismic phases to events and to accurately calculate location uncertainty bounds (i.e. event location error ellipses). We improve on the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The random effects model separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The path-specific travel-time uncertainty is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path. We demonstrate that event location error ellipses computed for a 90% coverage ellipse metric (used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (IDC)), and using the path-specific travel-time uncertainty approach, are more representative (median 82.5% ellipse percentage) of true location error than error ellipses computed using distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties (median 70.1%). We also demonstrate measurable improvement in location uncertainties using the RSTT method compared to the current station correction approach used at the IDC (median 74.3% coverage ellipse).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of environmental backgrounds on atmospheric monitoring of nuclear explosions

Radionuclide monitoring for nuclear explosions includes measuring radioactive aerosol and noble gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has made such measurements for decades, revealing much about how atmospheric radioactivity impacts the sensitivity of the network. For example, civilian emissions of radioiodine make a substantial regional impact, but a minor global impact, while civilian radioxenon emissions create major regional and complex global impacts. This example statement is strongly influenced by the minimum signal level anticipated to be interesting. The original design of the IMS anticipated relatively large signal levels, and the accomplished IMS network substantially meets or exceeds the sensitivity needed to detect those signal levels. Much lower signal levels can be motivated, which could require reconsideration of station sensitivity. Using measured and simulated background concentrations, various possible desired signal levels, and an innovative anomaly threshold, maps of sensitivity and a station ranking are developed for current and future stations. These provide a strong motivation for additional experimentation to learn about sources and the potential plusses of new technology.

Eslinger, Paul W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Radioxenon signatures of molten salt reactors

Developments of molten salt reactor (MSR) technologies are making rapid progress across the globe. These reactor designs involve properly controlling radionuclides through off-gas systems. This work examines radioxenon emissions and assesses treaty detection technology to be used for monitoring. This work also includes a sensitivity study with ORIGEN on the nuclear forensic signals possible from a MSR. Multiple Isotope Ratio Comparison (MIRC) plots are used to compare the ratios of radioxenon isotopes in an MSR to a highly enriched uranium (HEU) reactor. Finally, the results show that MSR emissions may significantly overlap with signals produced in a HEU reactor and that changing reactor operations or retaining emissions in an off-gas system can significantly shift the radioxenon signature away from the HEU pulse.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Experimental Method to Measure Gaseous Diffusivity in Tight and Partially Saturated Porous Media via Continuously Monitored Mass Spectrometry

Detection of radioxenon and radioargon produced by underground nuclear explosions is one of the primary methods by which the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test–Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitors for nuclear activities. However, transport of these noble gases to the surface via barometric pumping is a complex process relying on advective and diffusive processes in a fractured porous medium to bring detectable levels to the surface. To better understand this process, experimental measurements of noble gas and chemical surrogate diffusivity in relevant lithologies are necessary. However, measurement of noble gas diffusivity in tight or partially saturated porous media is challenging due to the transparent nature of noble gases, the lengthy diffusion times, and difficulty maintaining consistent water saturation. Here, the quasi-steady-state Ney–Armistead method is modified to accommodate continuous gas sampling via effusive flow to a mass spectrometer. An analytical solution accounting for the cumulative sampling losses and induced advective flow is then derived. Experimental results appear in good agreement with the proposed theory, suggesting the presence of retained groundwater reduces the effective diffusivity of the gas tracers by 10–1000 times. Finally, by using a mass spectrometer, the method described herein is applicable to a broad range of gas species and porous media.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

127 Xe quantification method development and intercomparison exercise

Monitoring of the atmosphere for fission products ( 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe) is performed by various laboratories to detect nuclear explosions. Quantification of 127 Xe is not routinely performed by laboratories measuring atmospheric radioxenon because it is not a fission product. 127 Xe was recently detected by a ground-based beta-gamma air monitoring system. When measured using beta-gamma coincidence detector systems, such as those in use on the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), 127 Xe can interfere with the quantification of fission product radioxenon due to overlap of the 127 Xe beta-gamma coincidence signatures with those of fission product radioxenon. Here, this work demonstrates quantification of 127 Xe at different laboratories with different measurement techniques. Production and purification of 127 Xe was performed by neutron activation of enriched 126 Xe. The purified 127 Xe was then split between laboratories, and detection and quantification methods were developed. At Idaho National Laboratory, a quantification method involving high purity germanium detectors was devised that included self-attenuation correction. At AWE, a beta-gamma coincidence counting method, as used in support of the IMS, was modified to enable the measurement and analysis of the 127 Xe samples. Corrections were made for self-attenuation, which showed a strong xenon volume dependency, for some coincidence signatures. The gas sample activity concentration was used as the comparison metric and it showed excellent agreement between the methods.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2026

High sensitivity measurement of femtogram-level 238 Pu by thermal ionization mass spectrometry with correction of background 238 U

Low-concentration plutonium isotopic measurements provide a valuable fingerprint to identify possible material origins in the context of environmental contamination monitoring, environmental tracing, nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and treaty monitoring. Thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) has long been recognized as one of the most sensitive techniques for plutonium isotopic measurement, but has not generally been utilized for 238 Pu determination, especially at low concentrations, due to an isobaric interference from 238 U, prevalent as background. Here, this work demonstrates a new analytical technique for correction of background 238 U from the 238 Pu counts collected during a TIMS analysis. The technique takes advantage of the higher ionization temperature of U relative to Pu and uses a 235 U tracer added after plutonium purification chemistry for 238 U semi-quantitative determination. This technique has been successfully applied to the determination of 238 Pu concentration and the 238 Pu/ 239 Pu ratio in sample types including single-isotope standards, isotopic certified reference materials, matrix-containing environmental reference materials, and simulated nuclear detonation debris. The results have been directly compared on a sample-by-sample basis to alpha spectrometry results. The detection limit by this new technique is 0.23 fg 238 Pu, which was previously unachievable by mass spectrometry and is possible in around 1 h of analysis time post-chemistry compared to weeks of required counting time by alpha spectrometry (at the same atom amount). We also present original, high precision data for Pu isotope concentrations in IAEA-384, Fangataufa Sediment, including 242 Pu results for the first time. The new technique allows measurement of a key isotope, 238 Pu, that was previously not measured in small environmental or nuclear forensics collections.

238Pu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Iodine effective diffusion coefficients through volcanic rock: Influence of iodine speciation and rock geochemistry

Accurate prediction of the subsurface transport of iodine species is important for the assessment of long-term nuclear waste repository performance, as well as monitoring compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, given that radioiodine decays into radioxenon. However, the transport of iodine through intact geologic media is not well understood, compromising our ability to assess risk associated with radioiodine migration. The current study's goal is to quantify the matrix diffusion of iodine species through saturated volcanic rock, with particular attention paid to the redox environment and potential speciation changes. Here, diffusion experiments were run for iodide through lithophysae-rich lava, lithophysae-poor lava, and welded tuff, whereas iodate diffusion was studied through welded tuff. Iodine transport was compared with a conservative tracer, HDO, and effective diffusion coefficients were calculated. Likely due to a combination of size and anion exclusion effects, iodine species diffused more slowly than the conservative tracer through all rock types tested. Furthermore, oxidation of iodide to iodate was observed in the lithophysae-poor lava, affecting transport. Results provide much needed data for subsurface transport models that predict radioiodine migration from underground sources, and indicate the pressing need for geochemical and redox interactions to be incorporated into these models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of near-background concentrations of Argon-37 and Xenon-133 in the Atmosphere

Radioisotopes of noble gases xenon and argon can be important indicators of underground nuclear explosions. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) includes monitoring capabilities to identify potential nuclear explosions conducted in violation of the CTBT. This monitoring currently focuses on measurement of the xenon isotopes 133Xe, 135Xe, 131mXe and 133mXe. However, it is predicted that within 100 days of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) 37Ar would be released to the atmosphere at higher concentrations than xenon isotopes (Haas et al. 2010) and with a higher signal to background ratio, depending on the radioxenon background levels. Therefore, inclusion of 37Ar measurement capabilities at atmospheric International Monitoring System (IMS) stations may represent an improvement in the capability to detect a nuclear explosion. At an IMS station, it could be difficult to determine what constitutes an elevated concentration as a result of an UNE without first understanding the expected range of background concentrations. This work describes our analysis of atmospheric samples for 37Ar to evaluate the range of background concentrations. Samples were collected at multiple locations, with approximately half coming from a sampler co-located with an IMS xenon monitoring station (RN75). The range of 37Ar concentrations measured in atmospheric air samples was relatively narrow; for samples considered detectable, the minimum and maximum measured concentrations were 0.56 and 2.3 mBq/m3, respectively. Comparison of 37Ar and 133Xe concentrations measured at the IMS station indicated some correlation between the measured concentrations. The results presented here demonstrate the capability to detect background concentrations of 37Ar in atmospheric air and provide a basis for potential implementation of 37Ar monitoring at IMS stations.

Fritz, Brad G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of fission and activation products in molten salt reactors and their potential impact on the radionuclide monitoring stations of the International Monitoring System

Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are one of six Generation IV reactor designs currently under development around the world. Because of the unique operating conditions of MSRs, which include molten fuel and the continuous removal of gaseous fission products during operation, work was performed to analyze the potential impact of emissions on the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Simulations were performed to predict the production of IMS-relevant radionuclides in four MSR designs operating under two scenarios: (1) a sealed reactor with releases only during operational shutdown, and (2) continuous reprocessing or sparging of the fuel salt. From these production estimates the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures were extracted and compared to three current reactor designs (Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), BWR, RBMK). In cases where continuous reprocessing of the fuel salt occurred, both the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures were nearly indistinguishable from a nuclear explosion. Estimates were also made of the potential emission rate of radioxenon for three reactor designs and it was found that MSRs have the potential to emit radioxenon isotopes at a rate of 10^15-8×10^16 Bq/d for 133Xe if no abatement is used. An assessment was made of activation products using a candidate fuel salt (FLiBe) mixed with corrosion products for the Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR-LF1).

Johnson, Christine M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Projected network performance for multiple isotopes using next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski et al., 2014) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent 235U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for 133 Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for 131m Xe and 133m Xe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple 133 Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. In conclusion, signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗