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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Measurement Uncertainties in the Jupiter High-240 Experiment

The Jupiter High-240 experiment performed in May of 2019 was previously discussed as a variant of the original Jupiter experiment incorporating plutonium metal alloy fuel plates with higher 240Pu content and lead plates, using both a reference configuration and a second configuration where eight lead plates were replaced with aluminum to simulate voiding. Measurements were recorded for experiment period, the “pressure” of the Comet ram upon closure for each near-critical measurement, and temperature. The experiment reactor period is the time it would take to increase the neutron population by a factor of e. For this experiment, the copper reflectors and upper third of the fuel sits upon a support structure with the lower fuel arrays raised up into the center of the reflectors using a ram (see Fig. 1). The recorded logbook temperature for each measurement corresponds to a resistance temperature detector (RTD) located at the top center of the upper fuel array. This paper summarizes the evaluated uncertainties for the Jupiter High 240 experiment as contributed via the recorded measurements and nuclear data and their assessed impact upon the computation of system reactivity and eigenvalue.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Integrating Data Quality Assessments and Radiometer Uncertainty for Determining the Expanded Uncertainty of Three-Component Solar Radiation Measurements

Accurate solar irradiance data are fundamental for determining the design and performance characteristics of photovoltaic systems. The uncertainty of solar irradiance measurements depends on many factors including radiometer design, calibration, installation, maintenance, and operational environment. The key contributors to this uncertainty can be classified as the measurement uncertainty of a particular radiometer and the operational uncertainty determined for the time of measurement. Radiometer measurement uncertainty estimates (U R ) can be based on well-established methods used as part of the radiometer calibration process. Estimates of operational uncertainties (U o ) require consideration of additional site-specific factors that affect data quality. A method is needed for establishing the accuracy of solar irradiance data by integrating an existing data quality process and measurement uncertainty estimates for specific radiometers. An algorithm has been developed to integrate data quality analyses and measurement uncertainty estimates for three-component solar irradiance data: global horizontal (total hemispheric) irradiance, direct normal (beam) irradiance, and diffuse horizontal (sky) irradiance collected at one- to 60-minute intervals. The algorithm has been tested using one-minute irradiance measurements. The goal of the project is to distribute a user-friendly software package based on the new algorithm.

data integrity↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification for equations of state: copper as an example

Equations of state are essential for providing a fundamental description of materials properties in thermodynamic equilibrium and are used to provide closure relations for hydrodynamics simulations. Generally, equations of state rely on simple physics-based parameterized materials models to inform on the free energy of a material through out a given thermodynamic state space. Historically the parameters of these models have been tuned by hand to fit various experimental data. However, modern optimization and uncertainty quantification techniques allow us to quickly test thousands of parameter combinations and obtain meaningful uncertainty estimates on the parameters, opening opportunities for assessing systematic uncertainties in experiments, assessing model adequacy, and more. In this report, we use Bayesian inference to fit the solid (fcc) equation of state of copper. We focus on fitting five different experimental datasets, including the isobaric density, isobaric heat capacity, room temperature isotherm, principal isentrope, and principal Hugoniot. We fit all five data types simultaneously, and then explore the extent to which combinations of 2 subsets of the 5 datasets can constrain the EOS parameters, as compared to the fit to all 5. This information is useful for investigating the extent to which different datasets can con strain EOS models and thereby help guide experimental investigations in order to best constrain the EOS. We also discuss ways that the methodologies can be used to investigate systematic discrepancies between experiments, as well as how the methods can be used to assess model uncertainty. The framework we develop is general, in that it can be used with a variety of optimization or uncertainty quantification techniques and with a variety of data sources, including both experimental and ab-inito data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

BioSTEAM-LCA: An Integrated Modeling Framework for Agile Life Cycle Assessment of Biorefineries under Uncertainty

Biorefineries will play a critical role in sustainable bioeconomies, but projections of their environmental impacts vary widely. A core challenge with life cycle assessments (LCAs) of biorefineries is that they are often disconnected from biorefinery design, simulation, and techno-economic analysis (TEA). This lack of integration is a barrier to early stage technology and process evaluations, reducing consistency and transparency across sustainability indicators while limiting our understanding of the relative importance of individual factors (e.g., design decisions, greenhouse gas emission accounting procedures), how these factors interact, and trade-offs or synergies with process economics. In this study, we propose a new agile LCA framework, BioSTEAMLCA, which layers onto BioSTEAM (Biorefinery Simulation and Techno-Economic Analysis Modules, which automates biorefinery design, simulation, and TEA) to characterize the environmental impacts of biorefineries across a landscape of designs, technology performance assumptions, and contexts. Inventory databases and impact assessment methods are integrated to enable flexible user defined LCA system models, and the implications of uncertainties throughout the production system are characterized via Monte Carlo simulation. To demonstrate the capabilities of BioSTEAMLCA, we present a case study for sugarcane ethanol production. Overall, BioSTEAM-LCA enables computationally efficient, agile gate-to-gate LCA to evaluate biorefinery processes, the production of candidate biofuels and bioproducts, and trade-offs among productivity, economics, and environmental impacts under uncertainty.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the Uncertainty in the Technical Performance Level Assessment for Wave Energy

In recent years, the design and development of wave energy converters (WECs) has been explored with intense interest, with highly varying design concepts emerging globally across both research enterprises and industry. The design space for WECs is vast - many concepts ranging in functionality, control systems, power development systems, materials, and scale have been ideated and prototyped, but WEC technology has yet to converge. One critical element of the technology trajectory that governs the speed of adoption is the performance of a WEC concept. In analogous but more-established industries (such as aerospace, and environmentally sustainable electronics design), performance assessment is a quantitative method, based on historical data, that is used as an iterative tool to improve the design of these systems early on in the design process. Though more nascent than these approaches, in wave energy R&D, WEC performance has been assessed using the Technology Performance Level (TPL) assessment, which provides designers with a quantitative score, situating a grid-scale WEC concept on a scale from 1-9 (1 being the lowest performance, and 9 being the highest, trending with the oft-used Technology Readiness Level, or TRL). The TPL assessment is designed to be used during design iteration, when a WEC concept is fully ideated, to enable designers to consider potential means of improving the downstream performance of the concept. One concern that may be slowing the adoption of TPL among WEC developers is the inherent uncertainty in the assessment, and how uncertainty in the individual questions asked as part of the assessment may contribute to perceived inaccuracies in the final score. In this work, we explore the uncertainty present in the assessment and quantify this uncertainty using both traditional mathematical operations and a Monte Carlo simulation. Results imply areas of improvement of the TPL assessment, where reducing uncertainty will be most helpful to end users, enabling both TPL practitioners and users to understand with more accuracy those design elements that can be improved to impact device performance most substantively.

techno-economic analysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving and Assessing the Quality of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning

Deep learning (DL) models have enjoyed increased attention in recent years because of their powerful predictive capabilities. While many successes have been achieved, standard deep learning methods suffer from a lack of uncertainty quantification (UQ). While the development of methods for producing UQ from DL models is an active area of current research, little attention has been given to the quality of the UQ produced by such methods. In order to deploy DL models to high-consequence applications, high-quality UQ is necessary. This report details the research and development conducted as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Sandia National Laboratories. The focus of this project is to develop a framework of methods and metrics for the principled assessment of UQ quality in DL models. This report presents an overview of UQ quality assessment in traditional statistical modeling and describes why this approach is difficult to apply in DL contexts. An assessment on relatively simple simulated data is presented to demonstrate that UQ quality can differ greatly between DL models trained on the same data. A method for simulating image data that can then be used for UQ quality assessment is described. A general method for simulating realistic data for the purpose of assessing a model’s UQ quality is also presented. A Bayesian uncertainty framework for understanding uncertainty and existing metrics is described. Research that came out of collaborations with two university partners are discussed along with a software toolkit that is currently being developed to implement the UQ quality assessment framework as well as serve as a general guide to incorporating UQ into DL applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty in determining carbon dioxide removal potential of biochar

A quantitative and systematic assessment of uncertainty in life-cycle assessment is critical to informing sustainable development of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. Biochar is the most commonly sold form of CDR to date and it can be used in applications ranging from concrete to agricultural soil amendments. Previous analyses of biochar rely on modeled or estimated life-cycle data and suggest a cradle-to-gate range of 0.20–1.3 kg CO 2 net removal per kg of biomass feedstock, with the range reported driven by differences in energy consumption, pyrolysis temperature, and feedstock sourcing. Herein, we quantify the distribution of CDR possible for biochar production with a compositional life-cycle inventory model paired with scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation in a 'best practice' (incorporating lower transportation distances, high pyrolysis temperatures, high energy efficiency, recapture of energy for drying and pyrolysis energy requirements, and co-generation of heat and electricity) and 'poor practice' (higher transportation distances, lower pyrolysis temperatures, low energy efficiency, natural gas for energy requirements, and no energy recovery) scenarios. In the best-practice scenario, cradle-to-gate CDR (which is representative of the upper limit of removal across the entire life cycle) is highly certain, with a median removal of 1.4 kg of CO 2 e/kg biomass and results in net removal across the entire distribution. In contrast, the poor-practice scenario results in median net emissions of 0.090 kg CO 2 e/kg biomass. Whether this scenario emits (66% likelihood) or removes (34% likelihood) carbon dioxide is highly uncertain. The emission intensity of energy inputs to the pyrolysis process and whether the bio-oil co-product is used as a chemical feedstock or combusted are critical factors impacting the net carbon dioxide emissions of biochar production, together responsible for 98% of the difference between the best- and poor-practice scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Refined Method to Translate Solar Data Quality Assessment Flags to Estimated Measurement Uncertainty

Integrating solar resource uncertainties due to radiometer measurement performance and operational data quality assessment can provide improved estimates of economic bankability, system design performance, and compliance of solar energy conversion systems. Estimating radiometer measurement uncertainty is an established procedure consistent with recognized best practices and international guidelines. SERI QC is a robust solar data quality assessment software tool that has been in continuous use for more than three decades. This report, the fourth of six for the Data Quality and Uncertainty Integration Project, presents a refined algorithm description for software to translate solar resource data quality assessment results into estimated uncertainty values in a Solar Resource Operational Uncertainty Integrator (SROUI) application. This algorithm requires three-component solar irradiance measurements - global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, and diffuse horizontal irradiance - collected at 1- to 60-minute intervals, as described in the previous deliverables. The development of this report as Deliverable 6.4 was an iterative process that included reviews and feedback from the project team on initial drafts designed to refine how the new software could best support determining solar resource data uncertainty. The results of this effort will contribute to the final software system development by National Renewable Energy Laboratory staff.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Biases in preconstruction estimates of wind plant annual energy production

Estimating the energy yield of a wind plant during the preconstruction phase is a historically difficult task, even with industry improvements in these estimations. We build on prior research comparing the realized energy production of wind plants and their estimated annual energy production P50 values (median energy production), using owner-provided energy production and losses. We produced similar results to prior studies but with a slightly increasing bias of overestimating median energy production (a bias between realized and estimated energy production of −7.4 % to −6.6 %, depending on the scenario, as opposed to −6.7 % to −5.5 % from earlier studies). In addition to assessing annual energy production P50 bias, we compared both the 1-year and the long-term annual energy production P90 and uncertainty energy yield assessment estimates to the observed long-term-corrected energy production. We found that neither the energy yield assessment uncertainty nor the P90 is conservative enough compared to the observed distribution of prediction errors, suggesting significant room for improvement in the energy yield assessment process.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in inventories for life cycle assessment: State‐of‐the‐art, challenges, and new technologies

Uncertainty is a critical factor that can hinder the quality and potential applications of life cycle assessment (LCA) results. A prominent source of uncertainty stems from the life cycle inventory (LCI) data. Various methodologies exist to estimate the uncertainty associated with LCI data, primarily based on the widely used structured pedigree matrix approach or the computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulation. This perspective review explores how new technologies (e.g., computational algorithms and data collection methods) from data science and related fields can contribute to identifying, quantifying, and reducing uncertainty in LCI modeling. A brief overview of the sources of uncertainty in LCI modeling and how they are addressed in current LCA practice is provided. Additionally, several new technologies are identified, and the potential benefits of their implementation in reducing uncertainties in LCI modeling are discussed. This perspective review concludes by identifying potential areas that require further development for these technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Driven Rapid Thermodynamic Assessment of Nb-Ta-Zr System and Effects of C impurities (L25GF9298S): Annual Progress Report

An integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) method is in development for rapid thermodynamic experimental investigation and high-fidelity computational modeling of refractory multi-principal element alloys (RMPEAs). These ultra-high-temperature (UHT) alloys are of interest for structural applications in extreme environments, but deficiency of reliable data, especially melting temperatures, impedes the prediction of alloys with favorable properties. The method leverages UHT capabilities and computational expertise of LLNL’s Materials Science Division and the McCormack Lab’s UHT conical nozzle levitation (CNL) system to iteratively map the Nb-Ta-Zr phase space, with focus on the liquidus surface, through targeted experiments selected by quantifying uncertainty in the thermodynamic model fitting parameters. This method will reduce the time to map uncharted RMPEA phase space and thereby accelerate discovery and development of advanced materials for applications in extreme environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting proton–proton fusion in chiral effective field theory

We calculate the S-factor for proton–proton fusion using chiral effective field theory interactions and currents. By performing order-by-order calculations with a variety of chiral interactions that are regularized and calibrated in different ways, we assess the uncertainty in the S-factor from the truncation of the effective field theory expansion and from the sensitivity of the S-factor to the short-distance axial current determined from three- and four-nucleon observables. We find that S(0) = (4.100 ± 0.024(syst) ± 0.013(stat) ± 0.008(g$_{A}$)) × 10$^{−23}$ MeV fm$^{2}$, where the three uncertainties arise, respectively, from the truncation of the effective field theory expansion, use of the two-nucleon axial current fit to few-nucleon observables and variation of the axial coupling constant within the recommended range. The increased value of S(0) compared to previous calculations is mainly driven by an increase in the recommended value for the axial coupling constant and is in agreement with a recent analysis based on pionless effective field theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗