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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Some effects of dust on photometry of high-z galaxies: Confounding the effects of evolution

Photometric observations of very distant galaxies--e.g., color vs. z or magnitude vs. z, have been used over the past decade or so in investigations into the evolution of the stellar component. Numerous studies have predicted significant color variations as a result of evolution, in addition to the shifting of different rest wavelengths into the band of observation. Although there is significant scatter, the data can be fit with relatively straightforward, plausible models for galaxian evolution. In very few cases are the effects of dust extinction included in the models. This is due in a large part to the uncertainty about the distribution and optical properties of the grains, and even whether or not they are present in significant numbers in some types of galaxies such as ellipticals. It is likely that the effects of dust on broadband observations are the greatest uncertainty in studies of very distant galaxies. We use a detailed Monte Carlo radiative transfer model within a spherical geometry for different star/dust distributions to examine the effects of dust on the broadband colors of galaxies as a function of redshift. The model fully accounts for absorption and angular redistribution in scattering. In this summary, we consider only the effects on color vs. redshift for three simple geometries each with the same total dust optical depth. Elsewhere at this conference, Capuano, Thronson, & Witt consider other effects of altering the relative dust/star distribution.

Thronson, H. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Managing Lunar and Mars Mission Radiation Risks: Cancer Risks, Uncertainties, and Shielding Effectiveness - Part 1

This document addresses calculations of probability distribution functions (PDFs) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPEs). PDFs are used to test the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Monte-Carlo techniques are used to propagate uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. The cancer risk uncertainty is about four-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missins (<180 d), SPEs present the most significant risk, but one effectively mitigated by shielding. For long-duration (>180 d) lunar or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits. While shielding materials are marginally effective in reducing GCR cancer risks because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativisitc particles, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding. Therefore, improving our knowledge of space radiobiology to narrow uncertainties that lead to wide PDFs is the best approach to ensure radiation protection goals are met for space exploration.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Cormack Research Project: Glasgow University

The aim of this project was to investigate and improve upon existing methods of analysing data from COMITEL on the Gamma Ray Observatory for neutrons emitted during solar flares. In particular, a strategy for placing confidence intervals on neutron energy distributions, due to uncertainties on the response matrix has been developed. We have also been able to demonstrate the superior performance of one of a range of possible statistical regularization strategies. A method of generating likely models of neutron energy distributions has also been developed as a tool to this end. The project involved solving an inverse problem with noise being added to the data in various ways. To achieve this pre-existing C code was used to run Fortran subroutines which performed statistical regularization on the data.

Skinner, Susan↗
NASA NTRS1988

Advanced probabilistic methods for quantifying the effects of various uncertainties in structural response

The effects of actual variations, also called uncertainties, in geometry and material properties on the structural response of a space shuttle main engine turbopump blade are evaluated. A normal distribution was assumed to represent the uncertainties statistically. Uncertainties were assumed to be totally random, partially correlated, and fully correlated. The magnitude of these uncertainties were represented in terms of mean and variance. Blade responses, recorded in terms of displacements, natural frequencies, and maximum stress, was evaluated and plotted in the form of probabilistic distributions under combined uncertainties. These distributions provide an estimate of the range of magnitudes of the response and probability of occurrence of a given response. Most importantly, these distributions provide the information needed to estimate quantitatively the risk in a structural design.

Nagpal, Vinod K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Stratosphere chemistry in a 2-D model with residual circulation

The objective of this research was to examine the effects of chemical perturbations on the stratosphere using models which can incorporate fully interactive radiative, chemical, and dynamical responses, in the context of a zonally averaged model. Model runs for the unperturbed, chlorine-perturbed and simultaneously chlorine-and CO2-perturbed cases were completed using the JPL-87 chemical kinetics data. The base case was analyzed and submitted for publication. The perturbed cases show substantial sensitivity of the predicted column ozone depletion to the perturbations affecting lower stratosphere temperature, but less to far dynamical perturbations. The column ozone distribution changed substantially when the kinetics data was changed. This implies a greater-than-expected uncertainty in predicted latitude distributions of ozone depletion, due to uncertainty about the accuracy and completeness of the chemical kinetics data set.

Guthrie, Paul D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Color constancy and the natural image

Color vision is useful only if it is possible to identify an object's color across many viewing contexts. Here, consideration is given to recent results on how to estimate the surface reflectance function of an object from image data, despite (1) uncertainty in the spectral power distribution of the ambient lighting, and (2) uncertainty about what other surfaces will be in the field of view.

Wandall, Brian A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Optical and Radar Measurements of the Meteor Speed Distribution

The observed meteor speed distribution provides information on the underlying orbital distribution of Earth-intersecting meteoroids. It also affects spacecraft risk assessments; faster meteors do greater damage to spacecraft surfaces. Although radar meteor networks have measured the meteor speed distribution numerous times, the shape of the de-biased speed distribution varies widely from study to study. Optical characterizations of the meteoroid speed distribution are fewer in number, and in some cases the original data is no longer available. Finally, the level of uncertainty in these speed distributions is rarely addressed. In this work, we present the optical meteor speed distribution extracted from the NASA and SOMN allsky networks [1, 2] and from the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory (CAMO) [3]. We also revisit the radar meteor speed distribution observed by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) [4]. Together, these data span the range of meteoroid sizes that can pose a threat to spacecraft. In all cases, we present our bias corrections and incorporate the uncertainty in these corrections into uncertainties in our de-biased speed distribution. Finally, we compare the optical and radar meteor speed distributions and discuss the implications for meteoroid environment models.

Moorhead, A. V.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Three dimensional model calculations of the global dispersion of high speed aircraft exhaust and implications for stratospheric ozone loss

Two-dimensional (zonally averaged) photochemical models are commonly used for calculations of ozone changes due to various perturbations. These include calculating the ozone change expected as a result of change in the lower stratospheric composition due to the exhaust of a fleet of supersonic aircraft flying in the lower stratosphere. However, zonal asymmetries are anticipated to be important to this sort of calculation. The aircraft are expected to be restricted from flying over land at supersonic speed due to sonic booms, thus the pollutant source will not be zonally symmetric. There is loss of pollutant through stratosphere/troposphere exchange, but these processes are spatially and temporally inhomogeneous. Asymmetry in the pollutant distribution contributes to the uncertainty in the ozone changes calculated with two dimensional models. Pollutant distributions for integrations of at least 1 year of continuous pollutant emissions along flight corridors are calculated using a three dimensional chemistry and transport model. These distributions indicate the importance of asymmetry in the pollutant distributions to evaluation of the impact of stratospheric aircraft on ozone. The implications of such pollutant asymmetries to assessment calculations are discussed, considering both homogeneous and heterogeneous reactions.

Douglass, Anne R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Dark matter near the sun

The amount of dark matter in the disk of the Galaxy at the solar position is determined by comparing the observed distributions of tracer stars with the predictions obtained from different assumptions of how the unseen matter is distributed. The major uncertainties, observational and theoretical, are estimated. For all the observed samples, typical models imply that about half of the mass in the solar vicinity must be in the form of unobserved matter. The volume density of unobserved material near the sun is about 0.1 solar mass/cu pc; the corresponding column density is about 30 solar masses/cu pc. This, so far unseen, material must be in a disk with an exponential scale height of less than 0.7 kpc. All the existing observations are consistent with the unseen disk material being in the form of stars not massive enough to burn hydrogen. It is suggested that the unseen material that is required to hold up the rotation curves of galaxies and to satisfy the virial theorem for clusters of galaxies might also be in the form of low-mass stars.

Bahcall, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Composition of metal in aubrites - Constraints on core formation

Aubrites are differentiated stone meteorites with small amounts of metal. Study of eight aubrites reveals that Fe,Ni grains occur in a variety of textures, from irregular micron-sized particles to rounded nodules of up to 1.5 cm in diameter. The pattern of siderophile element abundances in the silicates is characteristic of igneous metal segregation (the more siderophilic elements are more depleted). Despite large uncertainties in metal/silicate distribution coefficients, the calculated minimum metal content of the aubrite precursor is not unlike that of enstatite chondrites and suggests that metal segregation was an extensive process in the early magmatic evolution of the aubrite parent body. However, the lack of appreciable fractionation in the trace element signature of the metal suggests that the metal now observed in aubrites did not undergo fractional crystallization in a core. We argue instead that the analyzed metal nodules represent a fraction of the iron-nickel that, during partial melting, was not completely segregated from the silicates.

Casanova, Ignacio↗
NASA NTRS2001

Challenges Facing Design and Analysis Tools

The design and analysis of future aerospace systems will strongly rely on advanced engineering analysis tools used in combination with risk mitigation procedures. The implications of such a trend place increased demands on these tools to assess off-nominal conditions, residual strength, damage propagation, and extreme loading conditions in order to understand and quantify these effects as they affect mission success. Advances in computer hardware such as CPU processing speed, memory, secondary storage, and visualization provide significant resources for the engineer to exploit in engineering design. The challenges facing design and analysis tools fall into three primary areas. The first area involves mechanics needs such as constitutive modeling, contact and penetration simulation, crack growth prediction, damage initiation and progression prediction, transient dynamics and deployment simulations, and solution algorithms. The second area involves computational needs such as fast, robust solvers, adaptivity for model and solution strategies, control processes for concurrent, distributed computing for uncertainty assessments, and immersive technology. Traditional finite element codes still require fast direct solvers which when coupled to current CPU power enables new insight as a result of high-fidelity modeling. The third area involves decision making by the analyst. This area involves the integration and interrogation of vast amounts of information - some global in character while local details are critical and often drive the design. The proposed presentation will describe and illustrate these areas using composite structures, energy-absorbing structures, and inflatable space structures. While certain engineering approximations within the finite element model may be adequate for global response prediction, they generally are inadequate in a design setting or when local response prediction is critical. Pitfalls to be avoided and trends for emerging analysis tools will be described.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Estimating Marine Aerosol Particle Volume and Number from Maritime Aerosol Network Data

As well as spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol composition and concentration (number, volume, or mass) are of interest for a variety of applications. However, remote sensing of these quantities is more difficult than for AOD, as it is more sensitive to assumptions relating to aerosol composition. This study uses spectral AOD measured on Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) cruises, with the additional constraint of a microphysical model for unpolluted maritime aerosol based on analysis of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) inversions, to estimate these quantities over open ocean. When the MAN data are subset to those likely to be comprised of maritime aerosol, number and volume concentrations obtained are physically reasonable. Attempts to estimate surface concentration from columnar abundance, however, are shown to be limited by uncertainties in vertical distribution. Columnar AOD at 550 nm and aerosol number for unpolluted maritime cases are also compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, for both the present Collection 5.1 and forthcoming Collection 6. MODIS provides a best-fitting retrieval solution, as well as the average for several different solutions, with different aerosol microphysical models. The average solution MODIS dataset agrees more closely with MAN than the best solution dataset. Terra tends to retrieve lower aerosol number than MAN, and Aqua higher, linked with differences in the aerosol models commonly chosen. Collection 6 AOD is likely to agree more closely with MAN over open ocean than Collection 5.1. In situations where spectral AOD is measured accurately, and aerosol microphysical properties are reasonably well-constrained, estimates of aerosol number and volume using MAN or similar data would provide for a greater variety of potential comparisons with aerosol properties derived from satellite or chemistry transport model data.

Sayer, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) Evaluation: Accounting for Uncertainty in Sparing Assessments

There are two general shortcomings to the current annual sparing assessment: 1. The vehicle functions are currently assessed according to confidence targets, which can be misleading- overly conservative or optimistic. 2. The current confidence levels are arbitrarily determined and do not account for epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) in the ORU failure rate. There are two major categories of uncertainty that impact Sparing Assessment: (a) Aleatory Uncertainty: Natural variability in distribution of actual failures around an Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) (b) Epistemic Uncertainty : Lack of knowledge about the true value of an Orbital Replacement Unit's (ORU) MTBF We propose an approach to revise confidence targets and account for both categories of uncertainty, an approach we call Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) evaluation.

Anderson, Leif↗
NASA NTRS2004

Precipitation and Latent Heating Distributions from Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometry: Method and Uncertainties - Part 1

A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Olson, William S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Position Error Covariance Matrix Validation and Correction

In order to calculate operationally accurate collision probabilities, the position error covariance matrices predicted at times of closest approach must be sufficiently accurate representations of the position uncertainties. This presentation will discuss why the Gaussian distribution is a reasonable expectation for the position uncertainty and how this assumed distribution type is used in the validation and correction of position error covariance matrices.

Frisbee, Joe, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Origin and propagation of galactic cosmic rays

The study of systematic trends in elemental abundances is important for unfolding the nuclear and/or atomic effects that should govern the shaping of source abundances and in constraining the parameters of cosmic ray acceleration models. In principle, much can be learned about the large-scale distributions of cosmic rays in the galaxy from all-sky gamma ray surveys such as COS-B and SAS-2. Because of the uncertainties in the matter distribution which come from the inability to measure the abundance of molecular hydrogen, the results are somewhat controversial. The leaky-box model accounts for a surprising amount of the data on heavy nuclei. However, a growing body of data indicates that the simple picture may have to be abandoned in favor of more complex models which contain additional parameters. Future experiments on the Spacelab and space station will hopefully be made of the spectra of individual nuclei at high energy. Antiprotons must be studied in the background free environment above the atmosphere with much higher reliability and presion to obtain spectral information.

Cesarsky, Catherine J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Reliability and risk assessment of structures

Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

Chamis, C. C.↗