Results for “uncertainty estimation” — Page 4

NASA NTRS1993

Improved Treatment of Global Positioning System Force Parameters in Precise Orbit Determination Applications

Data collected from a worldwide 1992 experiment have been processed at JPL to determine precise orbits for the satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS). A filtering technique has been tested to improve modeling of solar-radiation pressure force parameters for GPS satellites. The new approach improves orbit quality for eclipsing satellites by a factor of two, with typical results in the 25- to 50-cm range. The resultant GPS-based estimates for geocentric coordinates of the tracking sites, which include the three DSN sites, are accurate to 2 to 8 cm, roughly equivalent to 3 to 10 nrad of angular measure.

Y Vigue↗

NASA NTRS2026

Recommended Practices in Laser-Induced Fluorescence (LIF) Diagnostics for Electric Propulsion

Laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) spectroscopy uses Doppler-shifted laser photons to excite a bound electron transition in an atom or ion, with subsequent fluorescence emission detected in order to measure the local velocity distribution function (VDF) and/or particle density. Due to its non-invasive nature, high spatial resolution, and acceptable difficulty of implementation, LIF has become a favored diagnostic for electric propulsion (EP) plasmas, particularly in the study of Hall thrusters. This paper presents recommended best practices for LIF measurements in electric thrusters, drawn from over three decades of implementation heritage in the EP community. Focusing on both single-photon LIF (typically used to measure VDFs) and two-photon LIF (TALIF, typically used to determine densities), the paper covers selection of atomic transitions to target, experimental setups, and interpretation of data. A number of special topics and advanced applications are discussed, including uncertainty analysis, techniques for high-speed measurements, and applications to a variety of propellants.

plasma plume↗

NASA NTRS2023

Satellite characterization of global stratospheric sulfate aerosols released by Tonga volcano

Large volcanic eruptions create an enhanced layer of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere. These sulfuric acid droplets persist for many months, altering the climate and stratospheric chemistry. Sulfate aerosols scatter sunlight back to space, cooling the surface of the Earth and absorb outgoing thermal radiation, heating the stratosphere. The calculation of the climate impact of sulfate aerosols depends on their physical properties such as droplet size and chemical composition. These properties are not well known, and this uncertainty contributes to the errors in climate model predictions. Here we derive the first empirical formula that predicts the composition of stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions from the air temperature and water vapor pressure. Measurements of atmospheric infrared transmittance of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai sulfate aerosol plume by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite were analyzed to determine composition (weight percent of sulfuric acid) and median particle radius. These data are supplemented by measurements of the Raikoke and Nabro eruptions. Our analysis allows the properties of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere to be predicted reliably in atmospheric models.

P Bernath↗

NASA NTRS1983

VII. Plasma Effects

Radio communication with space probes requires sending signals through the Earth's ionosphere and usually the solar wind. During planetary flybys, the signal may also pass through the ionosphere of another planet. These ionized media can perturb the radio signal in a variety of ways. Examples of these perturbations are variations in the electrical length between the spacecraft and the ground station, Faraday rotation of linearly polarized signals, amplitude and phase scintillations, and spectral and angular broadening. These plasma effects can have undesirable influences on telemetry performance and thus need to be understood from a communications engineering viewpoint. The plasma effects are, however, useful from a scientific viewpoint, since the effects on the communications link can often be inverted to estimate the physical conditions in the plasma.

John W Armstrong↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Evaluation Profiles for X-57 and Future Urban Electric Aircraft

Battery energy density is one of the most critical design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft, however it’s easily overestimated. Establishing the effective, usable energy density is confused by varying degrees of margin needed to account for structural and thermal management between different cell chemistry and pack designs. Therefore, a better methodology is needed to fairly compare emerging battery technologies for electric aircraft. Currently, there is a loss of critical information when vehicle trade studies are performed using “nominal” published cell-level performance metrics. Aircraft power demands rarely match these nominal power profiles, and aircraft designers lack the ability to accurately simulate the battery performance and temperature off-nominally unless the battery chemistry is well established. Conversely, battery suppliers have no generalized reference cases to publish more realistic performance metrics. This can lead to poor assumptions, such as aircraft studies assuming a fixed discharge efficiency of a battery, when in reality the usable energy in a pack is dependent on the power and thermal profile. Information needed to properly assess weight penalties for thermal management is also typically poorly characterized when assessing candidate batteries. This paper serves to better inform battery development, and similarly, provide aircraft designers with more realistic assumptions for applying knockdown margins in their designs. Detailed power and thermal performance estimates are provided, which provide a starting point for sizing power and thermal budgets using experimentally derived battery models. Results show that the X-57 battery-to-shaft efficiency is 77.3% for a particular optimized mission. Considering a 25% reserve on the battery capacity, this means that only roughly half of the original 55.3kWh ‘nominal’ pack energy can be converted to useful work during a mission. Further estimates on a clean-sheet VTOL optimization show an average 82.7% battery-to-shaft efficiency, using 98% peak efficiency inverters and 97.4% peak efficiency motors. Although higher battery efficiencies are possible, the resulting weight penalty negates improvement in vehicle performance. These trade-offs and resulting power profiles are provided as a starting point to better assess future battery designs.

Battery↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Cell-to-Pack Scaling Laws for Electric Aircraft

Battery pack gravimetric energy density is one of the most important, yet often miss-estimated design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft. Proper accounting for thermal, structural, and operational safety margins are frequently lost when extrapolating performance from the cell level to the aircraft level. This paper summarizes the relevant engineering and certification details needed to better account for the penalties associated when assembling battery packs. The relationship between the cell and pack energy density is not linear, as is often assumed. Furthermore, the relationship varies depending on pack requirements, cell chemistry, and architecture. Parametric, high-fidelity models are used to determine optimal battery pack sizes over a range of conditions to better quantify technology scaling effects.

Battery Electric Aircraft↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Cell-to-Pack Scaling Trends for Electric Aircraft

Battery pack gravimetric energy density is one of the most important, yet often miss- estimated design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft. Proper accounting for thermal, structural, and operational safety margins are frequently lost when extrapolating performance from the cell level to the aircraft level. This paper summarizes the relevant engineering and certification details needed to better account for the penalties associated when assembling battery packs. The relationship between the cell and pack energy density is not linear, as is often assumed. Furthermore, the relationship varies depending on pack requirements, cell chemistry, and architecture. Parametric, high-fidelity models are used to determine optimal battery pack sizes over a range of conditions to better quantify technology scaling effects.

Battery Electric Aircraft↗

NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of LDEF micrometeoroid/debris data and damage to composite laminates

A nomogram based on the number/distribution of micrometeoroid/debris hits recorded on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) is presented. The nomogram permits the user to estimate the total number of impacts that a space structure would encounter as a function of time in orbit, exposed area, and angular location associated with the LDEF. Examples are presented on the application of the nomogram to satellites and space structures of different cross-sections to that of the LDEF. The effects of altitude and orbit inclination are also discussed. To further demonstrate the usefulness of this nomogram, results are compared to impact data measured on the UTIAS polymer matrix composite experiment (AO180). The impact damage occurring on these composite materials is examined, and data on hole size, penetration depth, and delamination area are presented.

R. C. Tennyson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Controls for Electrified Aircraft Propulsion

Advanced electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) concepts with integrated power, propulsion, and thermal systems require the development of equally sophisticated controllers to fly safe and efficient missions. Hybrid electric aircraft utilize electric machines mechanically coupled to the engine shafts to extract and insert power for a variety of purposes. Additionally, electric machines may drive propulsive fans pulling from a combination of on-board energy storage devices and engine extracted power. NASA’s investment in hybrid electric aircraft hardware-in-the-loop testing enables controls research on representative engine models using a novel emulation and scaling methodology. High-voltage, high-power electrical powertrain presents several technical risks at altitude. High-power requires high efficiency to minimize losses. Superconducting electric machines and power distribution research at NASA has identified key challenges with potential controls solutions. These risks necessitate the development of controllers robust to model uncertainty, disturbances, and fault conditions. System health management and fault detection schemes play an important role in a multi-layer controls approach that utilizes a supervisor which oversees inner loops for the highly coupled power, propulsion, and thermal systems. Such a supervisory controller enables coordinates energy transfer between engines, energy storage devices, electric machines, propulsors, and heat exchangers. Existing methods have shown an improvement in engine operability using the hybrid electric powertrain.

Halle E Buescher↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Evaluation Profiles for X-57 and Future Urban Electric Aircraft

Battery energy density is one of the most critical design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft, however it’s easily overestimated. Establishing the effective, usable energy density is confused by varying degrees of margin needed to account for structural and thermal management between different cell chemistry and pack designs. Therefore, a better methodology is needed to fairly compare emerging battery technologies for electric aircraft. Currently, there is a loss of critical information when vehicle trade studies are performed using “nominal” published cell-level performance metrics. Aircraft power demands rarely match these nominal power profiles, and aircraft designers lack the ability to accurately simulate the battery performance and temperature off-nominally unless the battery chemistry is well established. Conversely, battery suppliers have no generalized reference cases to publish more realistic performance metrics. This can lead to poor assumptions, such as aircraft studies assuming a fixed discharge efficiency of a battery, when in reality the usable energy in a pack is dependent on the power and thermal profile. Information needed to properly assess weight penalties for thermal management is also typically poorly characterized when assessing candidate batteries. This paper serves to better inform battery development, and similarly, provide aircraft designers with more realistic assumptions for applying knockdown margins in their designs. Detailed power and thermal performance estimates are provided, which provide a starting point for sizing power and thermal budgets using experimentally derived battery models. Results show that the X-57 battery-to-shaft efficiency is 77.3% for a particular optimized mission. Considering a 25% reserve on the battery capacity, this means that only roughly half of the original 55.3kWh ‘nominal’ pack energy can be converted to useful work during a mission. Further estimates on a clean-sheet VTOL optimization show an average 82.7% battery-to-shaft efficiency, using 98% peak efficiency inverters and 97.4% peak efficiency motors. Although higher battery efficiencies are possible, the resulting weight penalty negates improvement in vehicle performance. These trade-offs and resulting power profiles are provided as a starting point to better assess future battery designs.

Battery Electric Aircraft↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design of an AI Trash Sorting Machine for Use on the Moon and Mars

As NASA prepares for Mars colonization, resource conservation will be critical for survival. Artificial Intelligence (AI) powered waste sorting technologies, already emerging on Earth, offer promising solutions for recycling and material recovery. These systems use advanced sensors and machine learning algorithms to identify and separate materials with remarkable accuracy. On Mars, where every item has significant value, efficient recycling will be essential to reduce resupply needs and support closed-loop life support systems. This paper explores how terrestrial AI-based trash sorting technologies can be adapted for Martian conditions, focusing on challenges such as the harsh surface environment, minimizing system mass, power, volume, and estimating waste composition. Addressing these issues will be key to enabling sustainable operations on the Red Planet.

Sorting↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design of an AI Trash Sorting Machine for Use on the Moon and Mars

As NASA prepares for Mars colonization, resource conservation will be critical for survival. Artificial Intelligence (AI) powered waste sorting technologies, already emerging on Earth, offer promising solutions for recycling and material recovery. These systems use advanced sensors and machine learning algorithms to identify and separate materials with remarkable accuracy. On Mars, where every item has significant value, efficient recycling will be essential to reduce resupply needs and support closed-loop life support systems. This paper explores how terrestrial AI-based trash sorting technologies can be adapted for Martian conditions, focusing on challenges such as the harsh surface environment, minimizing system mass, power, volume, and estimating waste composition. Addressing these issues will be key to enabling sustainable operations on the Red Planet.

AI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Boundary Layer Analysis of Shock Tube Flows

Shock tubes offer a controlled environment to reproduce kinetic and radiative phenomena characteristic of atmospheric entry flows under ground-test conditions. The boundary layer developing behind the incident shock wave determines the available test time, influences particle residence times important for similarity scaling, and can affect radiative energy transport. In this study, we couple a quasi-1D space marcher with the compressible boundary-layer equations to numerically compute the post-shock flow in a shock frame of reference for various test gas mixtures representative of different planetary atmospheres. The solvers are individually verified against CFD simulations and analytical correlations available in the literature. Coupled solutions are computed for a finite-rate chemistry in the boundary layer and a non-catalytic isothermal wall. Results yield refined estimates of the maximum separation distance, as well as insights into concentration profiles of relevant species within the boundary layer.

Andrea Fagnani↗

NASA NTRS1996

Multifrequency, Multipolarization External Calibration of the SIR-C/X-SAR Radars

Progress and the future plans for the following objectives are discussed: (1) Assess the accuracy at which the SIR-C/X-SAR standard data products can be calibrated through the use of ground calibrators to estimate the end-to-end system polarization calibration constants (or distortion parameters) and incorporate the constants into the data processing; (2) Study the cross-calibration between three multipolarization systems: SIR-C, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (NASA/JPL) DC-8 SAR, and the University of Michigan ground-based polarimetric scatterometer; (3) Evaluate the calibration "stability" of SIR-C/X-SAR (measured by variations in the calibration constants) over the range swath width and over a specified distance in azimuth. Variations over a 12-hour period (between ascending and descending passes) will also be studied; and (4) Develop a cost-effective calibration plan including development of inexpensive polarimetric active calibrators.

Anthony Freeman↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nasa’S Development of Merino - A New Family of Advanced, Low-Cost, Non-Woven Ablative Tps Materials

The Mars Exploration Program (MEP) and NASAs Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) are investing in approaches to reduce the cost and increase the frequency of future Mars missions while also seeking to help emerging commercial space companies which have an immediate need to demonstrate their capability to return samples from space - at a fraction of the cost of a conventional NASA mission. Of particular interest and relevance to commercial space and low-cost Mars, is the work developing and advancing MERINO-LD, an ablative carbon/phenolic blanket that is ~75% faster to produce with an estimated ~75% reduction in cost when compared to rigid PICA or Conformal-PICA TPS.

Matthew Gasch↗

NASA NTRS2026

Development and Experimental Validation of a Path-Dependent Spin Forming Finite Element Model

Spin forming is an advanced manufacturing process widely used in the aerospace and defense sectors to produce lightweight, high-strength cylindrical components with tight dimensional tolerances. This study explores the applicability of the path-dependent Mechanical Threshold Stress (MTS) constitutive model by simulating the evolution of geometry, machining forces, and plastic deformation during the spin forming of a 10-mm thick 6061-O aluminum cylinder. While numerical modeling of spin forming has advanced substantially over the past decade, systematic verification and experimental validation of material models remain limited, particularly in predicting through-thickness process evolution. The MTS model, incorporating a Voce hardening rule, is employed for its ability to represent cyclic loading, rapidly varying temperature fields, and strain rates characteristic of spin forming. Numerical convergence analysis indicates discretization uncertainties between 0.3% and 9.2% for key quantities of interest. Experimental validation demonstrates that the MTS model, when implemented with a verified mesh, accurately reproduces both elastic and plastic behavior of 6061-O aluminum, predicting peak roller loads within 11–18% of measurements, geometric tolerances within 3%, and plastic strain distributions within 10% of experimental values. Collectively, these results establish a validated computational framework for predictive spin-forming simulations with quantified confidence, providing a foundation for extension to other alloys, geometries, and forming conditions.

Spin forming↗

NASA NTRS2014

Opportunities to Intercalibrate Radiometric Sensors from International Space Station

Highly accurate measurements of Earth's thermal infrared and reflected solar radiation are required for detecting and predicting long-term climate change. Consideration is given to the concept of using the International Space Station to test instruments and techniques that would eventually be used on a dedicated mission, such as the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO). In particular, a quantitative investigation is performed to determine whether it is possible to use measurements obtained with a highly accurate (0.3%,with 95%confidence) reflected solar radiation spectrometer to calibrate similar, less accurate instruments in other low Earth orbits. Estimates of numbers of samples useful for intercalibration are made with the aid of yearlong simulations of orbital motion. Results of this study support the conclusion that the International Space Station orbit is ideally suited for the purpose of intercalibration between spaceborne sensors.

Intercalibrate↗

NASA NTRS2026

Hyperspectral Detail Meets Radiometric Accuracy: A Foundational Reflected Solar Capability for the Coming Decade

Hyperspectral Earth-reflected solar measurements contain rich, detailed information about clouds, aerosols, and the atmosphere. This information compounds when paired with high, SI-traceable radiometric accuracy. Unlike spectral resolution, which can be resampled to coarser spectral resolutions, radiometric accuracy cannot be recovered once a measurement is made, making the choice to invest in this capability now a decision with lasting consequences for the climate record. CLARREO Pathfinder is demonstrating that this combination of hyperspectral sampling and benchmark-quality accuracy is achievable today, but no follow-on mission is currently planned within NASA's Earth Science Division portfolio, and the recent cancellation of the European Space Agency TRUTHS mission has heightened the urgency of sustaining this capability. We recommend prioritizing investment in a follow-on to CLARREO Pathfinder, along with dedicated support for the science community to fully exploit these measurements. This capability would reduce long-standing uncertainties in cloud feedback, aerosol forcing, and global energy imbalance, while providing a degradation-resistant, gap-resilient calibration foundation for the broader Earth observing system. Building on flight-proven technology and an engaged science community, this is a near-term, fiscally realistic opportunity to secure a foundational Earth observation capability for the coming decade.

satellite↗