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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1976

Uncertainties in derived temperature-height soundings A summary

It is shown that high-resolution low-uncertainty temperature-height profiles cannot be deduced from pressure-height data alone because the relative uncertainty in pressure data cannot be expected to be smaller than 1% or 2% in present-day practical instrumentation. The basic equations relating temperature to pressure-height or density-height data are subjected to error analysis to determine the uncertainty introduced into computed temperature-height values by observed data. The results show that the use of density data is much more preferable than the use of pressure data if atmospheric temperature is to be determined as a function of height with a fine height resolution and a small uncertainty from the height profiles of pressure or density and if pressures and densities can be measured with comparable accuracies.

Minzner, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Orbit determination for the Voyager II Uranus encounter

The Voyager II flyby of Uranus in January 1986 was the most distant planetary encounter ever attempted, and presented unique challenges to the process of orbit determination. Long light-times and spacecraft receiver difficulties hampered the collection of two-way radiometric data and helped bring about the maturation of a Very Long Baseline Interferometry navigational data type during the long cruise from Saturn. Planet and satellite ephemeris uncertainties necessitated the use of the onboard spacecraft optical system for Uranus-relative navigation. During the close approach phase, these optical data were combined with radiometric data to drive the Uranus system-relative uncertainties down to the level of a few tens of kilometers. This paper contains qualitative and quantitative results and conclusions based on orbit determination experience during Uranus cruise and encounter. Topics include an overview of the navigation-related mission events and requirements, and a review of the salient orbit determination results.

Taylor, T. H.↗

NASA NTRS2017

What is the Uncertainty in MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth in the Vicinity of Clouds?

MODIS dark-target (DT) algorithm retrieves aerosol optical depth (AOD) using a Look Up Table (LUT) approach. Global comparison of AOD (Collection 6 ) with ground-based sun photometer gives an Estimated Error (EE) of +/-(0.04 + 10%) over ocean. However, EE does not represent per-retrieval uncertainty. For retrievals that are biased high compared to AERONET, here we aim to closely examine the contribution of biases due to presence of clouds and per-pixel retrieval uncertainty. We have characterized AOD uncertainty at 550 nm, due to standard deviation of reflectance in 10 km retrieval region, uncertainty related to gas (H2O, O3) absorption, surface albedo, and aerosol models. The uncertainty in retrieved AOD seems to lie within the estimated over ocean error envelope of +/-(0.03+10%). Regions between broken clouds tend to have higher uncertainty. Compared to C6 AOD, a retrieval omitting observations in the vicinity of clouds (< or = 1 km) is biased by about +/- 0.05. For homogeneous aerosol distribution, clear sky retrievals show near zero bias. Close look at per-pixel reflectance histograms suggests retrieval possibility using median reflectance values.

Patadia, Falguni↗

NASA NTRS1978

Saturation of fluorescence in flames with a Gaussian laser beam

The method of saturated fluorescence for measuring species concentrations in flames is usually performed with laser beams that do not provide a constant intensity distribution across the focal volume. Because of the intensity distribution across the beam, the fluorescence signal does not depend on laser power or intensity in the same manner as for uniform illumination. This leads to anomolous apparent saturation intensities. In the following, the effect is considered for atomic fluorescence. Relations for the fluorescence signal under two common excitation geometries are derived and uncertainty relations used to consider the benefits of high laser intensity.

Daily, J. W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Nitrogen Shockwave Radiation at Velocity Around 7km/s

In the last decade, the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility has been widely used to provide experimental data aiming to validate radiative heating models used for atmospheric entry, mostly at velocities above 9km/s in air. In more recent years, another experimental campaign aimed to look at velocity below 9 km/s and its analysis resulted in a significant improvement of the air kinetic model using new rates found in the literature but discrepancies were still observed, especially for the N2 second positive system. Despite these previous studies, the overall uncertainties related to surface heating for lunar return remain around 50% To reduce these uncertainties, the last experimental campaign at EAST, named test 62, was conducted in pure nitrogen at velocity ranging from 6 to 11 km/s at a freestream pressure of 0.2 Torr to provide more fundamental data on nitrogen. A previous study analyzed the data obtained at a velocity of 10.3 km/s, where atomic radiation is dominant, and provided spatially resolved density measurements of different states of nitrogen. This study will focus on experimental data obtained at shock velocity of 6.88 and 7.15 km/s where molecular nitrogen is expected to be the dominant source of radiation.

Augustin Tibere-Inglesse↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Effects of Detector Modeling Uncertainties on Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Analysis with the ICARUS Detector

he ICARUS T600 LArTPC detector was refurbished after an initial run at the underground LNGS labs and is currently taking data within its experimental hall at Fermilab after full commissioning. Regular data taking began in May 2021 with neutrinos from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) and the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) off-axis beam. As the far detector of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program, the ICARUS detector's capability in searching for both muon neutrino disappearance and electron neutrino appearance will allow for unprecedented sensitivity to light sterile neutrinos with eV-scale mass. The ultimate sensitivity of the detector to sterile neutrino oscillations depends on the understanding of the detector response and the uncertainties remaining after calibrating the detector model. This poster will review how detector-model-related uncertainties are quantified, evaluated and their impact on expected sterile neutrino oscillation sensitivities using the existing ICARUS data. The work pursued here is broadly applicable to other ICARUS analysis pathways such as neutrino-argon cross-sections and Beyond the Standard Model physics searches. It will finally discuss improvement pathways to reduce the systematic uncertainties to the level needed for the joint sterile neutrino oscillation analysis with the Short Baseline Near Detector (SBND) within the SBN Program.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Seasonal Dependence of SMAP Radiometer-Based Soil Moisture Performance as Observed over Core Validation Sites

The NASA SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission provides a global coverage of soil moisture measurements based on its L-band microwave radiometer every 2-3 days at about 40 km resolution. The soil moisture retrieval algorithms model the brightness temperature as a function of soil moisture, surface conditions and vegetation. External data sources inform the algorithms about the surface conditions and vegetation, which enable the retrieval of soil moisture. The inversion process contains uncertainties related to radiometer measurements, forward model assumptions and ancillary data sources. This study focuses on the uncertainties that depend on the seasonal evolution of the surface conditions and vegetation. This study compares the SMAP and core validation site (CVS) soil moisture values over a period of three years to extract the evolution of performance metrics over time. The analysis showed that most CVS that include managed agriculture exhibit significant time-dependent seasonal bias. This bias was linked to seasonal temperature cycle, which is a proxy to several features that can cause seasonally dependent errors in the SMAP product.

core validation site↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optical potential uncertainties on exclusive tens-of-MeV Ar cross sections

Large liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detectors, such as those planned for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), show considerable promise as a platform for next-generation measurements of supernova neutrinos. Thanks to the neutron excess in $^{40}$Ar as well as the detailed tracking possible with LArTPCs, these detectors are expected to be uniquely capable of measuring supernova electron neutrinos with high statistics and minimal backgrounds. However, these technological advantages come at the price of complexities in data interpretation; reconstruction of the incident energies of supernova neutrinos in a future LArTPC-based analysis will be subject to a variety of systematic uncertainties related to nuclear interaction modeling. In this talk, we present a study of a subset of these uncertainties as implemented in the MARLEY event generator used by DUNE and other LArTPC neutrino experiments. Variations to the optical potential used in the MARLEY nuclear de-excitation model are applied to the calculation of exclusive tens-of-MeV neutrino-nucleus cross sections for the first time, and the impact on observables of interest for supernova neutrino detection is examined. We also discuss prospects for quantifying other sources of uncertainty on the MARLEY neutrino interaction model.

El-Haj, Luca Abu↗

NASA NTRS1986

Possibility of measuring gravity-wave momentum flux by single beam observation of MST radar

Vincent and Reid (1983) proposed a technique to measure gravity-wave momentum fluxes in the atmosphere by mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere (MST) radars using two or more radar beams. Since the vertical momentum fluxes are assumed to be due to gravity waves, it appears possible to make use of the dispersion and polarization relations for gravity waves in extracting useful information from the radar data. In particular, for an oblique radar beam, information about both the vertical and the horizontal velocities associated with the waves are contained in the measured Doppler data. Therefore, it should be possible to extract both V sub Z and V sub h from a single beam observational configuration. A procedure is proposed to perform such an analysis. The basic assumptions are: the measured velocity fluctuations are due to gravity waves and a separable model gravity-wave spectrum of the Garrett-Munk type that is statistically homogeneous in the horizontal plane. Analytical expressions can be derived that relate the observed velocity fluctuations to the wave momentum flux at each range gate. In practice, the uncertainties related to the model parameters and measurement accuracy will affect the results. A MST radar configuration is considered.

Liu, C. H.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constrained variational optimization of counting-time allocation in sequential scattering measurements: Application to Bonse–Hart USANS

Sequential scattering measurements are often performed under a fixed experimental-time budget, even though the expected count rate varies strongly across the measured coordinate. When the dwell time at each measurement position can be controlled independently, this variation creates a general resource-allocation problem: how should the available time be distributed to minimize the uncertainty of the reconstructed profile? We formulate this problem as a constrained variational optimization for measurements governed by Poisson counting statistics. When each measurement is treated independently, minimizing the averaged squared relative uncertainty yields an inverse-square-root intensity allocation. The formulation is then generalized to include correlations between neighboring measurements and an instrumental resolution operator, leading to an allocation criterion that equalizes the marginal reduction in posterior uncertainty per unit measurement time. Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS), in which reciprocal space is sampled sequentially through analyzer-angle stepping, provides an experimentally grounded application. Computational benchmarking shows that the optimized allocation outperforms uniform-time and constant-relative-error strategies, while application to an experimentally measured graphite USANS profile from the Spallation Neutron Source, using Poisson resampling under alternative schedules, demonstrates how counting time should be redistributed toward weak-intensity regions under an identical total duration. The resulting framework applies to sequential scattering and related scanning measurements whenever local dwell times are adjustable and directly determine the measurement uncertainties, and when the relevant correlation and instrumental-response models are available.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System Under Deep Climate Uncertainty

Climate change threatens the resource adequacy of future power systems. Existing research and practice lack frameworks for identifying decarbonization pathways that are robust to climate-related uncertainty. We create such an analytical framework, then use it to assess the robustness of alternative pathways to achieving 60% emissions reductions from 2022 levels by 2040 for the Western U.S. power system. Our framework integrates power system planning and resource adequacy models with 100 climate realizations from a large climate ensemble. Climate realizations drive electricity demand; thermal plant availability; and wind, solar, and hydropower generation. Among five initial decarbonization pathways, all exhibit modest to significant resource adequacy failures under climate realizations in 2040, but certain pathways experience significantly less resource adequacy failures at little additional cost relative to other pathways. By identifying and planning for an extreme climate realization that drives the largest resource adequacy failures across our pathways, we produce a new decarbonization pathway that has no resource adequacy failures under any climate realizations. This new pathway is roughly 5% more expensive than other pathways due to greater capacity investment, and shifts investment from wind to solar and natural gas generators. Our analysis suggests modest increases in investment costs can add significant robustness against climate change in decarbonizing power systems. Our framework can help power system planners adapt to climate change by stress testing future plans to potential climate realizations, and offers a unique bridge between energy system and climate modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1991

Electric fields in the solar atmosphere - A review

A review is presented of remote sensing techniques which measure the electric field component transverse to the line of sight and achieve a sensitivity range of 5-10 V/cm. Three models are shown to predict quasistatic, macroscopic values of E(parallel), the electric field component parallel to the magnetic vector, beyond the sensitivity range considered. These processes are: the discharge model of flares; the models of return currents related to flare particle beams; and the models of neutral sheets related to two-ribbon flares and postflare loops. Time dependent electric fields related to MHD and plasma waves, and to plasma disturbance, may allow the detection of both E components (parallel and perpendicular). The uncertainty relating to the emission measures, time scales, volumes, and plasma conditions of these flares and electrified plasma volumes is emphasized. It is pointed out, however, that important information can be obtained by observing electric fields at existing sensitivity levels. By measuring these E-fields, the understanding of flares and related dynamic events can be improved.

Foukal, P.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Studies of aerodynamic technology for VSTOL fighter/attack aircraft

The paper summarizes several studies to develop aerodynamic technology for high performance VSTOL aircraft anticipated after 1990. A contracted study jointly sponsored by NASA-Ames and David Taylor Naval Ship Research and Development Center is emphasized. Four contractors analyzed two vertical-attitude and three horizontal-attitude takeoff and landing concepts with gross weights ranging from about 10433 kg (23,000 lb) to 17236 kg (38,000 lb). The aircraft have supersonic capability, high maneuver performance (sustained load factor 6.2 at Mach 0.6, 3048 m (10,000 ft)) and a 4536 kg (10,000-lb) STO overload capability. The contractors have estimated the aerodynamics and identified aerodynamic uncertainties associated with their concept. Example uncertainties relate to propulsion-induced flows, canard-wing interactions, and top inlets. Wind-tunnel research programs were proposed to investigate these uncertainties.

Nelms, W. P.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1976

Multiplicity dependence of transverse momentum in hadronic collisions

The process of secondary-particle emission in hadron-hadron collisions is analytically studied using a simple model of hadron structure. The model neglects the 'size' of the hadron constituents, considering a hadron as a continuous distribution of matter according to a step function of radius R. A version of the eikonal approximation is applied to derive the relative probability for interaction and emission of secondaries when the impact parameter b is smaller than 2R. On the basis of these assumptions, and using the uncertainty relation, an empirical parameterization is obtained for the dependence of the transverse momentum of charged secondaries on their multiplicity in the case of high-energy proton-proton collisions. Comparison with experimental data at 28 GeV/c yields agreement to within about 3%. The analysis shows that at a fixed beam momentum, the transverse momentum decreases with increasing multiplicity, and that for a given multiplicity, the transverse momentum exhibits a slow increase with beam momentum.

Saint Amand, J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced antineutrino emission from 𝛽 decay in core-collapse supernovae with self-consistent weak decay rates

Nuclear weak-interaction rates are known to exert a prominent effect in the late stages of stellar collapse. Despite their importance, most studies to date on core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) have focused primarily on the effects of electron captures, neglecting 𝛽 decay contributions. In this work, we present the first CCSNe simulation incorporating global 𝛽 decay rates from a microscopic theory. These are enabled by a large-scale evaluation of both electron capture and 𝛽 decay rates, obtained self-consistently utilizing the relativistic energy density functional theory and finite-temperature quasiparticle random-phase approximation. Including 𝛽 decay leads to a dramatic enhancement of the pre-bounce antineutrino signal as the antineutrino emissivity increases by more than two orders of magnitude and the luminosity by a factor of 50 relative to thermal emission alone, while the average antineutrino energy increases by over 1 MeV. Furthermore, it is expected that these new rates could help us constrain the model uncertainties related to weak-interaction processes, improving the prediction of antineutrino signal during the final stages of stellar death.

Beta decay↗

DOE OSTI2025

Yes, No, Maybe So: Human Factors Considerations for Fostering Calibrated Trust in Foundation Models Under Uncertainty

High-stakes analytical environments require analysts to evaluate evidence and generate conclusions to inform critical decisions often under conditions of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision-making based on incomplete or inaccurate information can reduce productivity, compromise national interests, and endanger public safety. Researchers are developing expert systems built on foundation models (FMs) to support analysts’ decision-making processes by enabling human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming, in part through the quantification and expression of uncertainty information. As FMs continue to mature, it is imperative to correspondingly consider analysts’ needs for appropriately interpreting and using uncertainty information. However, prior research indicates that it remains unclear how analysts engage with FM-generated uncertainty information and the extent to which these interactions influence trust in, and reliance on, expert systems. We plan to review the state of the science and conduct an exploratory, qualitative study to (a) understand how properly communicated uncertainty can foster calibrated trust and appropriate reliance and (b) identify approaches for effectively conveying FM-generated uncertainty information during analytical workflows. We will administer semi-structured interviews with analysts from a specific high-stakes analytical environment to collect their current experiences with job-related uncertainty and their impressions when viewing FM-generated uncertainty information. During the interview protocol, participants will be presented with several different FM outputs and invited to discuss their thoughts and beliefs about the uncertainty information displayed. Participants may provide insights into how trust and reliance may be influenced by uncertainty. The results of this study will help us to better understand how analysts currently interpret and use uncertainty information. Our findings may inform human factors recommendations for effectively conveying uncertainty information to foster calibrated trust in, and appropriate reliance on, expert systems. Interaction designers and FM developers can use this knowledge to enhance human-AI teaming and ensure the responsible deployment of FM-based expert systems in analytical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗