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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Immersive Visualization in Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Management for Experimental Design and Planning

The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) represents a significant innovation in nuclear technology, offering several operational and safety benefits over traditional solid-fuel reactors. However, MSRs face uncertainties in waste management due to their flexible designs and variable waste compositions. To address these challenges, we propose a visualization platform that illustrates solutions and performance predictions for various waste management strategies, enhancing user experience and improving strategy and communication. Immersive visualizations are widely used in the nuclear industry for training, simulation, and safety enhancement. Our project aims to develop a visualization platform incorporating virtual reality (VR) technologies to illustrate MSR characteristics immediately following reactor shutdown. This immersive simulation will allow users to interact, explore, and understand different waste management strategies. The platform will display MSR reactor characterizations, including nuclide decay, salt solidification, and corrosion, which are crucial for assessing and selecting backend management strategies. Using the Meta Quest 3 VR headset with Unity software, our platform will provide real-scale visualizations, enabling users to experience and evaluate designs and plans as if they were physically present. This user-friendly interface will make complex data accessible and understandable for non-domain experts, aiding in decision-making for MSR waste management. Our proposed visualization workflow can be applied to other nuclear reactors, assisting in the design and planning of waste management strategies.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification of fireball features extracted from nuclear test films using computer vision

Films from the US’s historic nuclear testing era comprise the only extensive collection of imagery depicting high-yield detonations. These films offer unique insights into the characteristics of flows occurring on scales that are difficult to replicate experimentally, and they are a valuable source of data for the validation of models used to describe nuclear detonations. In recent work, we implemented modern computer vision and machine learning techniques to extract features of the fireball following nuclear detonation. With a training dataset of fireball films, we fine-tuned a You Only Look Once 11 (YOLO11) model to detect and track the fireball. Applied to a video, the outer bounding box produced in each frame by YOLO11 is used as an input prompt to Meta’s Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2), which is shown to accurately predict the boundary of the fireball over time with high resolution. These state-of-the-art computer vision foundation models exhibit impressive visual accuracy in their results but lack an output of values that robustly quantify uncertainty in scientific applications. In this paper, we develop procedures for uncertainty quantification of extracted fireball features. We outline the application of a parallel attention mechanism to calculate uncertainty ranges that complement and better pose model validation data. This higher quality fireball validation data may serve to improve prognostic models describing nuclear detonations in support of nuclear forensic and emergency response activities.

Khristy, Joel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000209963060)↗
DOE OSTI2026

A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films

While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Uncertainty in HPC Job Queue Time Predictions

High Performance Computing (HPC) has developed at an unprecedented pace in recent decades. This growth has demanded corresponding development in the area of HPC Operational Data Analytics (ODA), which encompasses a wide range of data analysis techniques, ML/AI efforts, tools, and visualizations. Published studies in ODA offer a variety of practical ways to inform HPC users, administrators, procurement managers, and other stakeholders. Uncertainty analysis, however, is rare in the related published literature. For instance, we identify only 1 out of 14 existing studies focused on job queue time prediction that investigates the uncertainty aspect of their proposed predictions. We recognize the utmost importance uncertainty quantification can have in such predictive analytics solutions, with consequences in how users interpret information they receive, and attempt to bridge this gap. With the goal of improving access to such insights, we develop a process for determining upper and lower bounds of the predicted queue times of a regression model at a specified confidence level. Our current research is focused on the uncertainty in predicting job queue times, yet our approach may be employed in predicting other metrics.

HPC↗
NASA NTRS2016

Thinking Outside of the Blue Marble: Novel Ocean Applications Using the VIIRS Sensor

While planning for future space-borne sensors will increase the quality, quantity, and duration of ocean observations in the years to come, efforts to extend the limits of sensors currently in orbit can help shed light on future scientific gains as well as associated uncertainties. Here, we present several applications that are unique to the polar orbiting Visual Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), each of which challenge the threshold capabilities of the sensor and provide lessons for future missions. For instance, while moderate resolution polar orbiters typically have a one day revisit time, we are able to obtain multiple looks of the same area by focusing on the extreme zenith angles where orbital views overlap, and pair these observations with those from other sensors to create pseudo-geostationary data sets. Or, by exploiting high spatial resolution (imaging) channels and analyzing patterns of synoptic covariance across the visible spectrum, we can obtain higher spatial resolution bio-optical products. Alternatively, non-traditional products can illuminate important biological interactions in the ocean, such as the use of the Day-Night-Band to provide some quantification of phototactic behavior of marine life along light polluted beaches, as well as track the location of marine fishing vessel fleets along ocean fronts. In this talk, we explore ways to take full advantage of the capabilities of existing sensors in order to maximize insights for future missions.

ocean color↗
NASA NTRS2005

Near-Earth Object Astrometric Interferometry

Using astrometric interferometry on near-Earth objects (NEOs) poses many interesting and difficult challenges. Poor reflectance properties and potentially no significant active emissions lead to NEOs having intrinsically low visual magnitudes. Using worst case estimates for signal reflection properties leads to NEOs having visual magnitudes of 27 and higher. Today the most sensitive interferometers in operation have limiting magnitudes of 20 or less. The main reason for this limit is due to the atmosphere, where turbulence affects the light coming from the target, limiting the sensitivity of the interferometer. In this analysis, the interferometer designs assume no atmosphere, meaning they would be placed at a location somewhere in space. Interferometer configurations and operational uncertainties are looked at in order to parameterize the requirements necessary to achieve measurements of low visual magnitude NEOs. This analysis provides a preliminary estimate of what will be required in order to take high resolution measurements of these objects using interferometry techniques.

Werner, Martin R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Mission Functionality for Deflecting Earth-Crossing Asteroids/Comets

Using astrometric interferometry on near-Earth objects (NEOs) poses many interesting and difficult challenges. Poor reflectance properties and potentially no significant active emissions lead to NEOs having intrinsically low visual magnitudes. Using worst case estimates for signal reflection properties leads to NEOs having visual magnitudes of 27 and higher. Today the most sensitive interferometers in operation have limiting magnitudes of 20 or less. The main reason for this limit is due to the atmosphere, where turbulence affects the light coming from the target, limiting the sensitivity of the interferometer. In this analysis, the interferometer designs assume no atmosphere, meaning they would be placed at a location somewhere in space. Interferometer configurations and operational uncertainties are looked at in order to parameterize the requirements necessary to achieve measurements of low visual magnitude NEOs. This analysis provides a preliminary estimate of what will be required in order to take high resolution measurements of these objects using interferometry techniques.

Park, Sang-Young↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Global Air Quality Management Needs With A Flexible Data Fusion Tool for Estimation and Forecasting in Google Earth Engine

High spatial and temporal resolution air quality estimation and forecasting can be enhanced by combining global data sources, like chemical transport models and satellite remote sensing, with local information from regulatory and low-cost air quality monitors. Successful integration of data from these diverse sources is complicated by many factors, however, including differences in spatial and temporal resolution, data availability and latency issues, varying data quality, and large computational and data storage requirements. This presentation will provide an overview of a NASA-funded effort to develop the foundation for future operationalization of air quality forecasting for world-wide end-users and integration into their air quality management decision processes, which will be achieved in future phases of this multi-year project. We will summarize our progress in developing a data fusion system using the Google Earth Engine platform which can integrate model, satellite, and surface-level monitoring datasets to enhance estimation and forecasting of air-quality-relevant pollutants at sub-daily and sub-city scales. The tool is being developed in close cooperation with several city- and regional-level air quality managers in the USA and around the world. Our end-goal is to provide these air quality managers with the information they need to assess and anticipate the impacts of poor air quality, track changes in air quality due to ongoing mitigation efforts and land use changes, and identify ways to improve their air quality monitoring strategies. This presentation will focus on recent advances achieved through the project, including integration of multiple air quality datasets in a prototype data fusion system in Google Earth Engine, the quantification of uncertainties associated with our data fusion approach, and the development of user interfaces and visualization tools to convey air quality information in a way which best meets end-user needs.

Carl Malings↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Global Air Quality Management Needs With A Flexible Data Fusion Tool for Estimation and Forecasting in Google Earth Engine

High spatial and temporal resolution air quality estimation and forecasting can be enhanced by combining global data sources, like chemical transport models and satellite remote sensing, with local information from regulatory and low-cost air quality monitors. Successful integration of data from these diverse sources is complicated by many factors, however, including differences in spatial and temporal resolution, data availability and latency issues, varying data quality, and large computational and data storage requirements. This presentation will provide an overview of a NASA-funded effort to develop the foundation for future operationalization of air quality forecasting for world-wide end-users and integration into their air quality management decision processes, which will be achieved in future phases of this multi-year project. We will summarize our progress in developing a data fusion system using the Google Earth Engine platform which can integrate model, satellite, and surface-level monitoring datasets to enhance estimation and forecasting of air-quality-relevant pollutants at sub-daily and sub-city scales. The tool is being developed in close cooperation with several city- and regional-level air quality managers in the USA and around the world. Our end-goal is to provide these air quality managers with the information they need to assess and anticipate the impacts of poor air quality, track changes in air quality due to ongoing mitigation efforts and land use changes, and identify ways to improve their air quality monitoring strategies. This presentation will focus on recent advances achieved through the project, including integration of multiple air quality datasets in a prototype data fusion system in Google Earth Engine, the quantification of uncertainties associated with our data fusion approach, and the development of user interfaces and visualization tools to convey air quality information in a way which best meets end-user needs.

Carl Malings↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Angular Power Spectrum of BATSE 3B Gamma-Ray Bursts

We compute the angular power spectrum C(sub l) from the BATSE 3B catalog of 1122 gamma-ray bursts and find no evidence for clustering on any scale. These constraints bridge the entire range from small scales (which probe source clustering and burst repetition) to the largest scales (which constrain possible anisotropics from the Galactic halo or from nearby cosmological large-scale structures). We develop an analysis technique that takes the angular position errors into account. For specific clustering or repetition models, strong upper limits can be obtained down to scales l approx. equal to 30, corresponding to a couple of degrees on the sky. The minimum-variance burst weighting that we employ is visualized graphically as an all-sky map in which each burst is smeared out by an amount corresponding to its position uncertainty. We also present separate bandpass-filtered sky maps for the quadrupole term and for the multipole ranges l = 3-10 and l = 11-30, so that the fluctuations on different angular scales can be inspected separately for visual features such as localized 'hot spots' or structures aligned with the Galactic plane. These filtered maps reveal no apparent deviations from isotropy.

Tegmark, Max↗
DOE OSTI2025

PySIDT: Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees for Molecular Property Prediction

Accurate molecular property prediction is important across all fields of chemistry. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become increasingly popular due to their ability to train automatically, avoiding the incredibly tedious process of constructing and extending traditional property estimation schemes. However, DNNs require large amounts of training data, are challenging to interpret, require large amounts of memory to load even during inference, and have severe difficulties incorporating qualitative chemical knowledge, which are often desired for molecular property prediction tasks. Here, in this study, we present PySIDT (https://github.com/zadorlab/PySIDT), a software for training and running inference on Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees (SIDTs). SIDTs are graph-based decision trees made of nodes associated with molecular substructures. Inference is done by descending target molecular structures down the decision tree to nodes with matching subgraph isomorphic substructures and making predictions based on the final (most specific) nodes matched. SIDTs scale down well to dataset sizes much smaller than is feasible for DNNs. As trees of molecular substructures, SIDTs are inherently readable and easy to visualize, making them easy to analyze. They are also straightforward to extend and retrain, facilitate uncertainty estimation, and enable easy integration of expert knowledge. We demonstrate the SIDT approach discussing its application to a diverse range of molecular prediction tasks: rate coefficient estimation, diffusion coefficient estimation, thermochemistry estimation, transition state bond stretch prediction, p K a prediction, stability of molecular structures, stability of surface structures, and prediction of surface lateral interaction energetics. Additionally, we demonstrate the power of the SIDT algorithms in two direct learning curve vanilla comparisons with the popular DNN-based software Chemprop and the popular gradient boosted trees-based software XGBoost on enthalpy of formation and rate coefficient prediction tasks. In particular, in the enthalpy of formation case, vanilla PySIDT is able to outperform vanilla Chemprop and XGBoost across the full range of training/validation set sizes out to 11,560 data points.

Johnson, Matthew Sean [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
NASA NTRS2002

The 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake, Southern California: Vector Near-Field Displacements from ERS InSAR

Two components of fault slip are uniquely determined from two line-of-sight (LOS) radar interferograms by assuming that the fault-normal component of displacement is zero. We use this approach with ascending and descending interferograms from the ERS satellites to estimate surface slip along the Hector Mine earthquake rupture. The LOS displacement is determined by visually counting fringes to within 1 km of the outboard ruptures. These LOS estimates and uncertainties are then transformed into strike- and dip-slip estimates and uncertainties; the transformation is singular for a N-S oriented fault and optimal for an E-W oriented fault. In contrast to our previous strike-slip estimates, which were based only on a descending interferogram, we now find good agreement with the geological measurements, except at the ends of the rupture. The ascending interferogram reveals significant west-sidedown dip-slip (approximately 1.0 m) which reduces the strike-slip estimates by 1 to 2 m, especially along the northern half of the rupture. A spike in the strike-slip displacement of 6 m is observed in central part of the rupture. This large offset is confirmed by subpixel cross correlation of features in the before and after amplitude images. In addition to strike slip and dip slip, we identify uplift and subsidence along the fault, related to the restraining and releasing bends in the fault trace, respectively. Our main conclusion is that at least two look directions are required for accurate estimates of surface slip even along a pure strike-slip fault. Models and results based only on a single look direction could have major errors. Our new estimates of strike slip and dip slip along the rupture provide a boundary condition for dislocation modeling. A simple model, which has uniform slip to a depth of 12 km, shows good agreement with the observed ascending and descending interferograms.

Sandwell, David T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Metrics for Offline Evaluation of Prognostic Performance

Prognostic performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. Currently, prognostics concepts lack standard definitions and suffer from ambiguous and inconsistent interpretations. This lack of standards is in part due to the varied end-user requirements for different applications, time scales, available information, domain dynamics, etc. to name a few. The research community has used a variety of metrics largely based on convenience and their respective requirements. Very little attention has been focused on establishing a standardized approach to compare different efforts. This paper presents several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics that were recently introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. These metrics have the capability of incorporating probabilistic uncertainty estimates from prognostic algorithms. In addition to quantitative assessment they also offer a comprehensive visual perspective that can be used in designing the prognostic system. Several methods are suggested to customize these metrics for different applications. Guidelines are provided to help choose one method over another based on distribution characteristics. Various issues faced by prognostics and its performance evaluation are discussed followed by a formal notational framework to help standardize subsequent developments.

Saxena, Abhinav↗
NASA NTRS2022

Visual Odometry Thinking While Driving for the Curiosity Mars Rover's Three-Year Test Campaign: Impact of Evolving Constraints on Verification and Validation

Over the first 9 years of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover's surface mission, more than 87\% of its driving has been performed using Visual Odometry (VO). The benefits of using VO during driving are that it minimizes rover position uncertainty and can be used to monitor wheel slip, halting a drive if excessive wheel slip is occurring. The VO implementation on board Curiosity acquires and processes VO images in between drive steps while the rover is stationary. A VO Thinking While Driving (VTWD) flight software capability has been developed which enables the processing of VO images during rover driving, increasing the distance Curiosity can drive with VO in a given time period up to as much as 1.75x total distance. Verification and Validation (V\&V) of the capability has been challenging due to impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic and unavailability of the JPL Mars Yard outdoor test site. The VTWD V\&V test procedures were modified to use a small indoor space with Mars-like terrain. This paper describes the 3 year V\&V effort under challenging conditions to approve the VTWD capability for use on the Curiosity rover.

Rankin, Arturo↗
NASA NTRS2014

ACES Study of DAA-Mitigated UAS Operations SC-228 Requirements Sub Group

Realization of the expected proliferation of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) depends on the development and validation of performance standards for UAS Detect and Avoid (DAA) Systems. The RTCA Special Committee 228 is charged with leading the development of draft Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for UAS DAA Systems. NASA, as a participating member of RTCA SC-228 is committed to supporting the development and validation of draft requirements as well as the safety substantiation and end-to-end assessment of DAA system performance. A recent study conducted using NASA's ACES (Airspace Concept Evaluation System) simulation capability begins to address questions surrounding the development of draft MOPS for DAA systems by assessing DAA performance in a NAS-wide context. ACES analyses were conducted to determine the impact of varying elements of UAS pilot performance and uncertainty mitigations on DAA system performance. Simulations were conducted with recorded cooperative and non-cooperative VFR (Visual Flight Rules) traffic to accurately model UAS encounters with other NAS traffic (ATC (Air Traffic Control) being responsible for separation with other IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) aircraft) and with roughly 25, 000 simulated UAS operations The number of Loss of Well Clear (LoWC) events were recorded across the range of independent variables: pilot response time, horizontal LoWC prediction buffer and horizontal LoWC resolution buffer. The number of LoWC events was compared to the unmitigated case (without the benefit of a DAA system) to determine the resultant risk-ratio for each of 8 simulation conditions. The parameter trades presented by the resultant DAA system performance (risk ratio) will be used by SC 228 to inform decisions about future requirements development and validation efforts.

Detect-and-Avoid↗
NASA NTRS1978

Heavy element abundances in Ap stars from ultraviolet data. I - The bright reference stars Alpha Lyrae and Alpha Canis Majoris A

Curve-of-growth analysis is used to derive chemical abundances in Alpha Lyr and Alpha CMa, based on ultraviolet spectra obtained with Copernicus. This analysis is part of a program to study the abundances of the heavy elements mercury and platinum and the short-lived element technetium in the atmospheres of Ap and Am stars. Ultraviolet Fe II lines are used to establish the curves of growth for Alpha Lyr and Alpha CMa A; abundances of a variety of elements, along with upper limits on Hg, Pt, and Tc, are derived. In cases where previous studies based on visual spectra have included elements in common with the present analysis, the agreement is good within the known uncertainties. One new element, cadmium, is observed for these two stars. The upper limits on Pt and Hg, as well as Tc, show that these elements are probably not enhanced in Alpha CMa A by more than about one order of magnitude.

Boiarchuk, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Acting to gain information

This report is concerned with agents that act to gain information. In previous work, we developed agent models combining qualitative modeling with real-time control. That work, however, focused primarily on actions that affect physical states of the environment. The current study extends that work by explicitly considering problems of active information-gathering and by exploring specialized aspects of information-gathering in computational perception, learning, and language. In our theoretical investigations, we analyzed agents into their perceptual and action components and identified these with elements of a state-machine model of control. The mathematical properties of each was developed in isolation and interactions were then studied. We considered the complexity dimension and the uncertainty dimension and related these to intelligent-agent design issues. We also explored active information gathering in visual processing. Working within the active vision paradigm, we developed a concept of 'minimal meaningful measurements' suitable for demand-driven vision. We then developed and tested an architecture for ongoing recognition and interpretation of visual information. In the area of information gathering through learning, we explored techniques for coping with combinatorial complexity. We also explored information gathering through explicit linguistic action by considering the nature of conversational rules, coordination, and situated communication behavior.

Rosenchein, Stanley J.↗