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At least 73 records · Page 4

Valuing Residential Energy Efficiency: Analysis for a Prototypical Southeastern Utility [Slides]

The increasing amount of variable renewable energy resources and shifts towards more end-use and vehicle electrification suggests profound changes to power system planning and operation. Specifically, renewable energy is expected to shift net peak demand from late afternoon to early evening and end-use electrification may significantly increase winter peak demand. Residential energy efficiency is likely to align well with these shifts as it tends to produce savings in the early evening (e.g., from lighting measures) and coincident with heating loads (e.g., from envelope and space conditioning measures). Despite the opportunity to decrease system costs and emissions, residential energy efficiency is often limited by static valuation methods and its economic potential is considerably less than its technical potential. Using hourly residential energy efficiency characterizations, utility program cost data, and a capacity expansion model, we estimate the benefits of residential energy efficiency for a prototypical, summer-peaking utility in the Southeastern region. We first establish the cost-effective residential energy efficiency portfolio through “competition” with supply-side resources in a forward-looking capacity expansion model. Importantly, we then evaluate several scenarios intended to drive an increasing amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency through measure cost reductions, increased customer adoption, policy goals (e.g., carbon price), and delivery of an integrated package of measures. The results quantify total system cost and emissions reductions, fossil-fuel plant retirements, and peak demand reductions. Results suggest the design and prioritization of policies and programs to access the untapped amount of cost-effective residential energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Class of Sparse Johnson–Lindenstrauss Transforms and Analysis of their Extreme Singular Values

The Johnson–Lindenstrauss (JL) lemma is a powerful tool for dimensionality reduction in modern algorithm design. The lemma states that any set of high-dimensional points in a Euclidean space can be projected into lower dimensions while approximately preserving pairwise Euclidean distances. Random matrices satisfying this lemma are called JL transforms (JLTs). Inspired by existing $s$-hashing JLTs with exactly $s$ nonzero elements on each column, the present work introduces an ensemble of sparse matrices encompassing so-called $s$-hashing-like matrices whose expected number of nonzero elements on each column is $s$. The independence of the sub-Gaussian entries of these matrices and the knowledge of their exact distribution play an important role in their analyses. Using properties of independent sub-Gaussian random variables, these matrices are demonstrated to be JLTs, and their smallest nontrivial singular values and largest singular values are estimated nonasymptotically using a technique from geometric functional analysis. As the dimensions of the matrix grow to infinity, these singular values are proved to converge almost surely to fixed quantities (by using the universal Bai–Yin law) and in distribution to the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble Tracy–Widom law after proper rescalings. Understanding the behaviors of extreme singular values is important in general because they are often used to define a measure of stability of matrix algorithms. For example, JLTs were recently used in derivative-free optimization algorithmic frameworks to select random subspaces in which are constructed random models or poll directions to achieve scalability, and hence estimating their smallest singular value in particular helps determine the dimension of these subspaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Market analysis for the integration of new power technologies: A case study of the deployment of hybrid fossil-based generator plus energy storage (ES-FE)

This study examines the national landscape of hybridized fossil energy (FE) power plants with energy storage (ES) technologies (“ES-FE”) and presents the compilation of an ES-FE dataset, which includes over 65 ES-FE projects and concepts in the United States, comprising approximately 500 MWh of co-located ES capacity with FE power plants. This study also estimates the economic feasibility of adding ES to existing FE power plants by characterizing the potential revenues that can be generated by the ES component through flexibility and capacity value. The analysis focuses on ES technologies with 2- to 10-h. durations located in four U.S. independent system operators (ISOs): Midcontinent ISO (MISO), Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), PJM Interconnection (PJM), and California ISO (CAISO), which have +70,000 MW of combined FE power capacity that could add ES. Annual revenues are estimated for the ES component using a what-if-analysis approach, for capacity value, price arbitrage, or ancillary services provision. The results show that annual revenues depend on the end-use storage service, wholesale electricity and capacity market prices, and ES technology operation parameters such as discharging duration and cycling frequency. When performing a sensitivity analysis, ES accrues $7–178/kW-yr. via price arbitrage and ancillary services provision in the four ISOs, and $13–92/kW-yr. when providing capacity value only in MISO and PJM. A cash flow analysis is performed to estimate the net present value (NPV) of the ES addition using a range of ES costs. The study finds that for most ES technologies considered, these revenues alone are insufficient to achieve economic feasibility. In conclusion, of the 1645 total runs analyzed, 115 had positive NPVs (7%). Therefore, other revenue streams or monetizable benefits are necessary to achieve the break-even point.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

The cardiac molecular setting of metabolic syndrome in pigs reveals disease susceptibility and suggests mechanisms that exacerbate COVID-19 outcomes in patients

Abstract Although metabolic syndrome (MetS) is linked to an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the cardiac-specific risk mechanism is unknown. Obesity, hypertension, and diabetes (all MetS components) are the most common form of CVD and represent risk factors for worse COVID-19 outcomes compared to their non MetS peers. Here, we use obese Yorkshire pigs as a highly relevant animal model of human MetS, where pigs develop the hallmarks of human MetS and reproducibly mimics the myocardial pathophysiology in patients. Myocardium-specific mass spectroscopy-derived metabolomics, proteomics, and transcriptomics enabled the identity and quality of proteins and metabolites to be investigated in the myocardium to greater depth. Myocardium-specific deregulation of pro-inflammatory markers, propensity for arterial thrombosis, and platelet aggregation was revealed by computational analysis of differentially enriched pathways between MetS and control animals. While key components of the complement pathway and the immune response to viruses are under expressed, key N6-methyladenosin RNA methylation enzymes are largely overexpressed in MetS. Blood tests do not capture the entirety of metabolic changes that the myocardium undergoes, making this analysis of greater value than blood component analysis alone. Our findings create data associations to further characterize the MetS myocardium and disease vulnerability, emphasize the need for a multimodal therapeutic approach, and suggests a mechanism for observed worse outcomes in MetS patients with COVID-19 comorbidity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Economic evaluation of infrastructures for thermochemical upcycling of post-consumer plastic waste

Thermochemical technologies, such as pyrolysis, offer a potentially scalable pathway for upcycling diverse types of plastic waste (PW) into value-added chemicals. However, deploying these technologies in waste management infrastructures is not straightforward because such systems involve a wide range of interdependent stakeholders, processing facilities, and products. In this work, we present a holistic optimization framework that integrates value-chain analysis, techno-economic analysis, and life-cycle analysis for investigating the economic viability and environmental benefits of upcycling infrastructures that collect, sort, clean, and process post-consumer PW for producing virgin polymer resins. The framework is applied to a case study in the upper Midwest region of the US. Our analysis reveals that the infrastructures are economically viable and could activate a regional circular economy that generates over 1 billion USD in annual profit. Moreover, our analysis reveals that this economy can reduce the carbon footprint of PW incineration by half. Our framework also determines the inherent values of post-consumer PW and of derived products such as plastic bales and pyrolysis oil; we find that, in these infrastructures, PW becomes a highly valuable feedstock with a market value of 500 USD per tonne. Here, we discuss how this market value can generate incentives that foster more effective waste pre-sorting practices by consumers that can help bypass material recycling facilities and increase total system profit.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Measurement of the Neutron Electromagnetic Form Factor Ratio from a Rosenbluth Technique with Simultaneous Detection of Neutrons and Protons

The internal structure of protons and neutrons provides insight into both the dynamical behavior of the constitute quarks and gluons, and emergent properties of the nucleons (such as mass, spin, and electromagnetic distributions). Elastic electron-nucleon scattering can probe the elastic electromagnetic form factors of the nucleon. The electric and magnetic form factors, respectively, encode information about the internal charge and magnetization distributions within the nucleon. Precision data for these form factors, over a broad range of the four-momentum transfer squared, Q^2, can benchmark theoretical models describing the strong interaction of nuclear physics. The Super BigBite Spectrometer (SBS) program in Hall A at Jefferson Lab, is a series of high-precision experiments which seek to significantly extend the Q^2 reach of previous data for the nucleon electromagnetic form factors. The first two experiments of this program are known as G_M^n and the neutron Two Photon Exchange (nTPE) and the data were collected from October 2021 to February 2022. Both experiments were conducted with the simultaneous measurement of D(e,e'n) and D(e,e'p) reactions for quasi-elastic electron-deuteron scattering. The scattered electrons were detected in the BigBite Spectrometer, which features multiple large-acceptance Gas Electron Multiplier (GEM) detectors. The Super BigBite Spectrometer provided simultaneous detection of scattered nucleons, and utilized a large acceptance dipole magnet and Hadron Calorimeter (HCal). The G_M^n experiment provides precision measurements of the neutron magnetic form factor, via the ratio method, over a Q^2 range of 3.0 to 13.5 (GeV/c)2. From this data analysis, preliminary values for G_M^n/µ_n G_D are extracted. For Q^2=4.48 (GeV/c)2 we find G_M^n/µ_n G_D=0.9546±0.0132 and for Q^2=4.476 (GeV/c)2 we find G_M^n/µ_n G_D=0.9563±0.0110. These preliminary G_M^n/µ_n G_D values are more precise than existing world data in this Q^2 regime and are consistent with the most recent parameterization of the G_M^n/µ_n G_D world data. The nTPE experiment provides a first measurement of the neutron Rosenbluth Slope and seeks to quantify the two-photon exchange(TPE) contribution to elastic electron-neutron scattering at a fixed Q^2=4.5 (GeV/c)2 with two different beam energies and scattering angle values. For data of the proton form factor ratio, µ_p G_E^p/G_M^p, significant discrepancies exist between values obtained from Rosenbluth Separation and polarization transfer measurement, particularly at large Q^2, and TPE contributions are thought to resolve this discrepancy. The impacts of TPE contributions have not yet been experimentally established for the neutron. From the data analysis presented in this dissertation, a preliminary result for the neutron Rosenbluth Slope is found as S^n=(G_E^n )^2/t_n (G_M^n )^2=0.0916±0.0476 for Q^2=4.48 (GeV/c)2. This value of the neutron Rosenbluth Slope is consistent with the world data extrapolation and the absence of large TPE corrections.

Wertz, Ezekiel [Thomas Jefferson National Accelera↗

Historical Hydropower Operations and Economic Value

This report on historical hydropower operations and economic value focuses primarily on addressing HydroWIRES Objective 1.3: Advance valuation of conventional and pumped-storage hydropower assets. It is informed by previous work performed by Argonne and other national laboratories on the modeling and analysis of value of pumped storage and conventional hydropower. The results from this report will feed into the new projects that are planned under the HydroWIRES initiative and that will examine hydropower’s value in providing grid reliability and resilience, as well as in improving the modeling and representation of hydropower in power system models. Other relevant DOE efforts include various WPTO-funded projects, such as the Beyond Levelized Cost of Energy Project and Integrated Hydropower and Storage Systems, that are currently addressing similar challenges associated with defining grid service values that arise from hydropower machine capabilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Role of Intense Arctic Storm in Accelerating Summer Sea Ice Melt: An In Situ Observational Study

Abstract Intense storms have been more frequently observed in the Arctic during recent years, in coincidence with extreme sea ice loss events. However, it is still not fully understood how storms drive such events due to deficient observations and modeling discrepancies. Here we address this problem by analyzing in situ observations acquired during an Arctic expedition, which uniquely captured an intense storm in summer 2016. The result shows a pronounced acceleration of sea ice loss during the storm process. Diagnostic analysis indicates a net energy loss at the ice surface, not supporting the accelerated melting. Although the open water surface gained net heat energy, it was insufficient to increase the mixed‐layer temperature to the observed values. Dynamic analysis suggests that storm‐driven increase in ocean mixing and upward Ekman pumping of the Pacific‐origin warm water tremendously increased oceanic heat flux. The thermal advection by the Ekman pumping led to a warmed mixed layer by 0.05°C–0.12°C and, in consequence, an increased basal sea ice melt rate by 0.1–1.7 cm day −1 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A computational analysis of effective R-values of buried ducts – the dynamic performance of buried ducts

Here, this paper evaluates the thermal performance of ducts partially or fully buried in loose-fill attic insulation. The overall thermal resistance between the ducts and the attic is referred to as an effective R-value. This paper shows a strong dependency of assumed attic temperature on the effective R-value. Based on the results, the effective R-value can be about twice as much with an attic temperature of 130 °F [54.4 °C], compared to when the attic temperature is 80 °F [26.7 °C]. Thus, this paper provides a polynomial regression equation based on a large set of simulations to determine the effective R-value of buried ducts depending on attic temperature and whether the HVAC system runs in cooling or heating mode. Further, the work presented in this paper investigated the potential impact of convective airflow within the attic insulation, particularly around the ducts. The analysis was based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and indicated that convectional forces are presented around the exterior surface of the ducts, but with negligible impact on the overall heat balance between the duct and the attic space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

Abstract While various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seamless integration of commercial Clouds with ATLAS Distributed Computing

The CERN ATLAS Experiment successfully uses a worldwide dis-tributed computing Grid infrastructure to support its physics programme at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The Grid workflow system PanDA routinely manages up to 700,000 concurrently running production and analysis jobs to process simulation and detector data. In total more than 500 PB of data are distributed over more than 150 sites in the WLCG and handled by the ATLAS data management system Rucio. To prepare for the ever growing data rate in future LHC runs new developments are underway to embrace industry accepted protocols and technologies, and utilize opportunistic resources in a standard way. This paper reviews how the Google and Amazon Cloud computing ser-vices have been seamlessly integrated as a Grid site within PanDA and Rucio. Performance and brief cost evaluations will be discussed. Such setups could offer advanced Cloud tool-sets and provide added value for analysis facilities that are under discussions for LHC Run-4.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

IDAES-PSE 2.3.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost, most environmentally sustainable solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications.. New Features and Models • New diagnostics toolboxes and examples o Tutorial for using the DiagnosticsToolbox o Methods to identify potential evaluation errors in models o SVDToolbox for performing singular value decomposition analysis on models to identify possible degeneracies and poor scaling o DegeneracyHunter for identifying irreducible degenerate sets in models • Model for solid-liquid separation which takes two inputs (solid and liquid streams) and produces three outlets (solids, liquid entrained with solids and pure liquid) • Example of temperature swing adsorption in models_extra Deprecation Warnings • With the update to Pyomo 6.7.0, the plate heat exchanger model has begun failing tests on some CI platforms. If this is not addressed by the February release, this model may be removed due to failing tests. See #1294. Offers to help identify the cause and fix this issue are welcome. Improvements and bug fixes • Fixed oversight which precluded using Mixer and Separator models when inherent reactions were present in property package • Added reporting methods to the MSContactor model • Minor corrections in some examples where values were being fixed outside of declared variable bounds

DiagnosticsToolbox,IDAES,PSE,Process Systems Engin↗

A cost–benefit framework to evaluate capacity upgrade options in overhead line transmission planning

This paper presents the methodology behind the new Reconductoring Economic and Financial Analysis (REFA) tool, an open-access software, used by transmission utilities to evaluate transmission capacity enhancement options. The proposed methodology is intended to be used in a new planning stage, after the capacity expansion and prior to the individual transmission project engineering, allowing capacity upgrade options (reconductoring, rebuild or voltage upgrade), and respective conductor selection, to be compared under the same economic basis. Furthermore, the REFA tool implements a methodology to rank project options and conductor types based on economic criteria, considering an approximation of the ampacity and sag constraints. Results, using 5 real transmission lines in the US, show that least-cost combinations of project and conductor types can be very diverse, which emphasizes the need for the proposed methodology and tool.

Advanced conductors↗

Investigation of grain size and geometrically necessary dislocation density dependence of flow stress in Mg-4Al by using nanoindentation

Models for grain size dependence of flow stress typically ignore contributions from geometrically necessary dislocations (GNDs) in the grain boundary regions. Ashby had proposed the following equation for flow stress (τ) as a function of grain size (d) and effective plastic strain ($\bar{ε}$): $τ = τ_{0} + C'G\sqrt{^{b\bar{ε}}_{d}}$ using an unknown empirical coefficient, C’, In this study, the coefficient, C’, and equation for the grain size dependence of flow stress were investigated in Mg-4Al using nanoindentation. C’ ranges from 1.4 to 7.11 that is related to the hardness difference (∆H0) between the adjacent grains as $C' + 0.62\sqrt{ΔH_{0}}$. Ashby equation was used to predict uniaxial stress-strain curves in grain sizes of 55 µm, 187 µm, and 333 µm. The results showed lower flow stress and lower hardening rate compared to experimentally measured tensile stress-strain response. The discrepancy seems to be a result of hardening effect of SSDs. Here, we propose a modified Ashby equation that takes into account the hardening effect of SSDs and GNDs separately, resulting in a better agreement between calculated and experimentally measured values. This analysis demonstrates estimation of uniaxial stress-strain response using nanoindentation measurements that captures effects of grain size, and strain hardening from SSDs and GNDs. The combination of the revised equation and nanoindentation method will enable rapid exploration of stress-strain response of a diverse range of single-phase polycrystalline alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-objective sizing and dispatch for building thermal and battery storage towards economic and environmental synergy

The role of building thermal and battery storage is pivotal in advancing smart cities and achieving sustainability goals through effective energy management. Despite their significance, there are several limitations in the sizing approach and value stream analysis with various objectives for their widespread adoption in buildings. This work proposes a flexible and scalable multi-objective optimization framework for optimal sizing and dispatch of building thermal and battery storage, addressing conflicting objectives simultaneously using mixed-integer linear programming. The weighted-sum method is adapted, combining multiple objectives into a single function. The two-stage procedure iterates over different weights, generating optimal solutions and forming the Pareto front. Case studies are performed to assess the energy, economic, and environmental benefits of building energy storage systems for a large office building in three climate locations. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework efficiently determines optimal sizing and dispatch strategies, addressing the balance between economic viability and emission reduction. The dynamic relationship between time-of-use energy charges and emission factors leads to significantly different strategies based on whether economic or environmental concerns are prioritized. This research enhances our understanding of the benefits of TES and BES systems in buildings, providing valuable guidance to stakeholders.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Climate-extreme modeling framework for sustainable flood management in the Arabian Peninsula

Evaluating extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for building climate-resilient water management strategies, but it remains a major challenge in ungauged basins. Using the 26,070 km 2 Wadi al-Rummah basin in central Saudi Arabia as a case study, we developed an alternative, reliable, cost-effective satellite-based framework that combines empirically derived EPE thresholds, imagery-calibrated 2D hydrodynamic modeling, GRACE water-storage diagnostics, and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections to assess flood hazards and recharge potential under current and future climate scenarios in ungauged basins. The integrated approach and the resulting findings followed four key steps: (1) Identified a 22.5 mm EPE threshold, the 80th percentile of 3-day GPM/IMERG rainfall (2000–2024), aligned with flood-triggering events (Nov 2018: 23–28 mm; Apr, 2023: 42 mm); (2) Developed and calibrated a RiverFlow2D model using Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope imagery for the November 2018 flood, accurately reproducing flood depth and extent (RMSE ≤0.31 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.91), and estimating runoff (41 %), infiltration (25 %), and evaporation (34 %); (3) Independently validated the model with the April 2023 event (RMSE ≤0.35 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.86); (4) Conducted climate projections (2025–2100) from five bias-corrected NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models that revealed a 34 % increase in EPE intensity under SSP2-4.5 and 48 % under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, relative to 20th-century baselines. Our findings indicate that while intensifying extremes in the 21st century increase flood risk, the results highlight the potential for episodic recharge if effective retention strategies are employed, and offer a transferable model for climate-informed planning in data-scarce arid regions.

CMIP6↗