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At least 73 records · Page 4

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 41 : GDIS Workshop Report

The workshop "An International Global Drought Information System Workshop: Next Steps" was held on 10-13 December 2014 in Pasadena, California. The more than 60 participants from 15 countries spanned the drought research community and included select representatives from applications communities as well as providers of regional and global drought information products. The workshop was sponsored and supported by the US National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) program, the World Climate Research Program (WCRP: GEWEX, CLIVAR), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) programs on Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) and Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP). NASA/JPL hosted the workshop with logistical support provided by the GEWEX program office. The goal of the workshop was to build on past Global Drought Information System (GDIS) progress toward developing an experimental global drought information system. Specific goals were threefold: (i) to review recent research results focused on understanding drought mechanisms and their predictability on a wide range of time scales and to identify gaps in understanding that could be addressed by coordinated research; (ii) to help ensure that WRCP research priorities mesh with efforts to build capacity to address drought at the regional level; and (iii) to produce an implementation plan for a short duration pilot project to demonstrate current GDIS capabilities. See http://www.wcrp-climate.org/gdis-wkshp-2014-objectives for more information.

GEO↗

Multifrequency observations of the optically active radio-quiet quasar GQ Comae. II - Ultraviolet, optical, and infrared continuum variability

This paper summarizes the data and preliminary results of a 3 yr long project to monitor the continuum variability of GQ Comae (PG 1202 + 281) from 0.12 micron to 3.5 microns. Substantial variability in the optical/UV flux was observed. The variability is examined using a geometrically thin accretion disk model. The model is able to reproduce the variations, but contains problems with physical consistency. A comparison of the optical/UV data and the IR data indicates that the flux at 2.2 microns did not respond to the optical-UV continuum increase until nearly 250 days after the outburst and suggests that the variable flux at this wavelength is due to heated dust. We model the IR emission with a dust component which is heated by the radiation from the accretion disk. We show that a simple model using a disklike distribution of heated dust grains can explain most of the IR variability in a natural way.

Sitko, Michael L.↗

The influence of land-atmosphere interactions on variability of the North American Monsoon

Our project focused on the influence of land-atmosphere interactions on variability of North American Monsoon System (NAMS) precipitation is summarized in seven published manuscripts (listed below). Three of these manuscripts (Matsui et al. 2003; Matsui et al. 2005; Small and Kurc 2003) were completed solely with support from this NASA project. The remaining four were completed with additional support from NOAA. Our primary results are summarized: 1) Test of Rocky Mountains snowcover-NAMS rainfall hypothesis. Testing radiation and convective precipitation parameterization in MM5. Analysis of soil moisture-radiation feedbacks in semiarid environments from field observations and modeling.

Small, Eric↗

Project management - Factors leading to success or failure

This paper presents initial findings of a study designed to detail the relationships among situational, structural, and process variables as they relate to project effectiveness. In the paper, emphasis is placed on delineating those variables which tend to improve and those which tend to impede project effectiveness.

Kelley, A. J.↗

Determinants of project success

The interactions of numerous project characteristics, with particular reference to project performance, were studied. Determinants of success are identified along with the accompanying implications for client organization, parent organization, project organization, and future research. Variables are selected which are found to have the greatest impact on project outcome, and the methodology and analytic techniques to be employed in identification of those variables are discussed.

Murphy, D. C.↗

Stage-by-Stage and Parallel Flow Path Compressor Modeling for a Variable Cycle Engine, NASA Advanced Air Vehicles Program - Commercial Supersonic Technology Project - AeroServoElasticity

This paper covers the development of stage-by-stage and parallel flow path compressor modeling approaches for a Variable Cycle Engine. The stage-by-stage compressor modeling approach is an extension of a technique for lumped volume dynamics and performance characteristic modeling. It was developed to improve the accuracy of axial compressor dynamics over lumped volume dynamics modeling. The stage-by-stage compressor model presented here is formulated into a parallel flow path model that includes both axial and rotational dynamics. This is done to enable the study of compressor and propulsion system dynamic performance under flow distortion conditions. The approaches utilized here are generic and should be applicable for the modeling of any axial flow compressor design accurate time domain simulations. The objective of this work is as follows. Given the parameters describing the conditions of atmospheric disturbances, and utilizing the derived formulations, directly compute the transfer function poles and zeros describing these disturbances for acoustic velocity, temperature, pressure, and density. Time domain simulations of representative atmospheric turbulence can then be developed by utilizing these computed transfer functions together with the disturbance frequencies of interest.

Compressor Modeling Modeling↗

The contribution of CEOP data to the understanding and modeling of monsoon systems

CEOP has contributed and will continue to provide integrated data sets from diverse platforms for better understanding of the water and energy cycles, and for validating models. In this talk, I will show examples of how CEOP has contributed to the formulation of a strategy for the study of the monsoon as a system. The CEOP data concept has led to the development of the CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS), which focuses on the identification of model bias, and improvement of model physics such as the diurnal and annual cycles. A multi-model validation project focusing on diurnal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and using CEOP reference site data, as well as CEOP integrated satellite data is now ongoing. Similar validation projects in other monsoon regions are being started. Preliminary studies show that climate models have difficulties in simulating the diurnal signals of total rainfall, rainfall intensity and frequency of occurrence, which have different peak hours, depending on locations. Further more model diurnal cycle of rainfall in monsoon regions tend to lead the observed by about 2-3 hours. These model bias offer insight into lack of, or poor representation of key components of the convective,and stratiform rainfall. The CEOP data also stimulated studies to compare and contrasts monsoon variability in different parts of the world. It was found that seasonal wind reversal, orographic effects, monsoon depressions, meso-scale convective complexes, SST and land surface land influences are common features in all monsoon regions. Strong intraseasonal variability is present in all monsoon regions. While there is a clear demarcation of onset, breaks and withdrawal in the Asian and Australian monsoon region associated with climatological intraseasonal variability, it is less clear in the American and Africa monsoon regions. The examination of satellite and reference site data in monsoon has led to preliminary model experiments to study the impact of aerosol on monsoon variability. I will show examples of how the study of the dynamics of aerosol-water cycle interactions in the monsoon region, can be best achieved using the CEOP data and modeling strategy.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Development of toughened epoxy polymers for high performance composite and ablative applications

A survey of current procedures for the assessment of state of cure in epoxy polymers and for the evaluation of polymer toughness as related to nature of the crosslinking agent was made to facilitate a cause-effect study of the chemical modification of epoxy polymers. Various conformations of sample morphology were examined to identify testing variables and to establish optimum conditions for the selected physical test methods. Dynamic viscoelasticity testing was examined in conjunction with chemical analyses to allow observation of the extent of the curing reaction with size of the crosslinking agent the primary variable. Specifically the aims of the project were twofold: (1) to consider the experimental variables associated with development of "extent of cure" analysis, and (2) to assess methodology of fracture energy determination and to prescribe a meaningful and reproducible procedure. The following is separated into two categories for ease of presentation.

Allen, V. R.↗

Accelerated life tests of specimen heat pipe from Communication Technology Satellite (CTS) project

A gas-loaded variable conductance heat pipe of stainless steel with methanol working fluid identical to one now on the CTS satellite was life tested in the laboratory at accelerated conditions for 14 200 hours, equivalent to about 70 000 hours at flight conditions. The noncondensible gas inventory increased about 20 percent over the original charge. The observed gas increase is estimated to increase operating temperature by about 2.2 C, insufficient to harm the electronic gear cooled by the heat pipes in the satellite. Tests of maximum heat input against evaporator elevation agree well with the manufacturer's predictions.

Tower, L. K.↗

From the Upper Troposphere Through the Stratosphere: How Satellite Measurements Help Us Decode the Past to Better Project the Future

Decades of observations of key chemical species are allowing us to more fully understand processes important to transport and composition from the upper troposphere through the stratosphere. This talk will focus on a few examples and how they are informing our understanding of variability, trends, and future projections. The growth of the Antarctic ozone hole (late 1970s – mid 1990s) caused a dynamical perturbation to the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation visible in ozone, one of our longest and best observed chemical constituents, and illustrates the connection between chemical change and the coupled radiative and dynamical response that challenges chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical stratosphere, however its impacts on stratospheric circulation and composition can be traced globally. The QBOs timing with respect to the seasonal cycle in each hemisphere is significant in understanding its impact on up to decadal scale variability. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which dominates tropical tropospheric interannual variability, also affects the stratosphere and its influence is visible in our growing record of tropospheric and stratospheric composition measurements. I will discuss how our knowledge of response has grown and how representation of these observed responses in CCMs is key both to understanding recent trends and to reducing uncertainty in future changes of composition.

Luke David Oman↗

IMS/Satellite Situation Center report. Predicted orbit plots for IMP-H-1976

Predicted orbit plots are shown in three projections. The time period covered by each set of projections is 12 days 6 hours, corresponding approximately to the period of IMP-H satellite. The three coordinate systems used are the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic system (GSE), the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric system (GSM), and the Solar Magnetic system (SM). For each of the three projections, time ticks and codes are given on the satellite trajectories. The codes are interpreted in the table at the base of each plot. Time is given in the table as year/day/decimal hour. The total time covered by each plot is shown at the bottom of each table. An additional variable is given in the table for each time tick. For the GSM and SM projection this variable is the geocentric distance to the satellite in earth radii, and for the GSE projection the variable is satellite ecliptic latitude in degrees.

Source record↗

IMS/Satellite Situation Center report. Predicted orbit plots for Hawkeye 1, 1976

The predicted orbit plots are shown in three projections. The time period covered by each set of projections is 2 days 1 hour, corresponding approximately to the period of Hawkeye 1. The three coordinate systems used are the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic system (GSE), the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric system (GSM), and the Solar Magnetic system (SM). For each of the three projections, time ticks and codes are given on the satellite trajectories. The codes are interpreted in the table at the base of each plot. Time is given in the table as year/day/decimal hour. The total time covered by each plot is shown at the bottom of each table, and an additional variable is given in the table for each time tick. For the GSM and SM projection this variable is the geocentric distance to the satellite in earth radii, and for the GSE projection the variable is satellite ecliptic latitude in degrees.

Source record↗

Probabilistic Reasoning for Plan Robustness

A planning system must reason about the uncertainty of continuous variables in order to accurately project the possible system state over time. A method is devised for directly reasoning about the uncertainty in continuous activity duration and resource usage for planning problems. By representing random variables as parametric distributions, computing projected system state can be simplified in some cases. Common approximation and novel methods are compared for over-constrained and lightly constrained domains. The system compares a few common approximation methods for an iterative repair planner. Results show improvements in robustness over the conventional non-probabilistic representation by reducing the number of constraint violations witnessed by execution. The improvement is more significant for larger problems and problems with higher resource subscription levels but diminishes as the system is allowed to accept higher risk levels.

autonomous planning↗

Finding relationships between effort and other variables in the SEL

Estimating the amount of effort required for a software development project is one of the major aspects of resource estimation for that project. In this study, the relationship between effort and other variables for 23 Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) projects that were developed for NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center was examined. These variables fell into two categories: those which can be determined in the early stages of project development and may therefore be useful in a baseline equation for predicting effort in future projects, and those which can be used mainly to characterize or evaluate effort requirements and thus enhance the understanding of the software development process in this environment. Some results of the analyses are presented.

Basili, Victor R.↗

Multi-Epoch XMM Observations of NGC4258

The goal of this project was detection of variability in the X-ray absorption column of the AGN in NGC4258 through monitoring with the XMM satellite. We have accomplished this goal and submitted the results to ApJ for publication in a paper entitled, "X-ray Luminosity and Absorption Column Fluctuations in the H2O Maser Galaxy NGC4258 from Weeks to Years," by Fruscione, A., Greenhill, L.J., Filippedco, A.V., Moran, J.M., Hermstein, J.R., and Galle, E. We have received a favorable referee report and expect the article will appear in 2005. To complete the project, we reduced our four epochs of XMM data for NGC4258, one archival XMM observation, and all existing Chandra datasets for NGC4258 (with the latest calibration tables and a grid of corrections for pileup). Self-consistent reduction of all these data permitted detailed comparison that could not have been accomplished simply by taking published model fits that appear in the literature. To accumulate a broader monitoring record, we combined the Chandra and XMM results with those published for SAX and ASCA. We modeled the Chandra and XMM data self-consistently with partially absorbed, hard power-law, soft thermal plasmas, and soft power-law components. Over nine years, the photo-electric absorbing column exhibited a 40% drop between two ASCA epochs separated by 3 years and a 60% rise between two XMM epochs separated by just 5 months. In contract, uncorrelated factor of of 2-3 changes were seen in absorbed flux on te timescale of years, which suggests intrinsic variability of the central engine. The warped disk that is a known source of H2O maser emission in 4258 is believed to cross the line of sight to the central engine. We have proposed that the variations in absorbing column arise from inhomogeneities in the rotating disk, as they sweep across the line of sight. We estimate from the XMM data that the inhomogeneities are about 1E+15 cm in size at radii greater than 0.27 pc. This is consistent with the estimated radius of the disk crossing estimated entirely independently, and it solidifies evidence that the warped accretion disk is the absorber in this (and possible other) AGN.

Greenhill, Lincoln J.↗

JIGSAW: Preference-directed, co-operative scheduling

Techniques that enable humans and machines to cooperate in the solution of complex scheduling problems have evolved out of work on the daily allocation and scheduling of Tactical Air Force resources. A generalized, formal model of these applied techniques is being developed. It is called JIGSAW by analogy with the multi-agent, constructive process used when solving jigsaw puzzles. JIGSAW begins from this analogy and extends it by propagating local preferences into global statistics that dynamically influence the value and variable ordering decisions. The statistical projections also apply to abstract resources and time periods--allowing more opportunities to find a successful variable ordering by reserving abstract resources and deferring the choice of a specific resource or time period.

Linden, Theodore A.↗

Two XTE A01 Projects: A Multifrequency Study of Circinus X-1 and a Search for Microsecond Variability From Bright Galactic X-Ray Source

This final report describes the research of a single common portion of the above-named two projects, conducted by G. Jernigan, i.e., the theory for a new method, a variation of a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, for determining the fastest variability present in an X-ray source. The current phase involves testing the newly developed code on real example sources (CYG X1). Unfortunately, there are no calibration sources for testing the code, which therefore required the development of an X-ray source simulation code. The goal is to evaluate the sensitivity of the code for the detection of a range of different types of variability (bursts, pulsations, etc.).

Jernigan, Garrett↗

Comprehensive Modeling and Analysis of Rotorcraft Variable Speed Propulsion System With Coupled Engine/Transmission/Rotor Dynamics

This project develops comprehensive modeling and simulation tools for analysis of variable rotor speed helicopter propulsion system dynamics. The Comprehensive Variable-Speed Rotorcraft Propulsion Modeling (CVSRPM) tool developed in this research is used to investigate coupled rotor/engine/fuel control/gearbox/shaft/clutch/flight control system dynamic interactions for several variable rotor speed mission scenarios. In this investigation, a prototypical two-speed Dual-Clutch Transmission (DCT) is proposed and designed to achieve 50 percent rotor speed variation. The comprehensive modeling tool developed in this study is utilized to analyze the two-speed shift response of both a conventional single rotor helicopter and a tiltrotor drive system. In the tiltrotor system, both a Parallel Shift Control (PSC) strategy and a Sequential Shift Control (SSC) strategy for constant and variable forward speed mission profiles are analyzed. Under the PSC strategy, selecting clutch shift-rate results in a design tradeoff between transient engine surge margins and clutch frictional power dissipation. In the case of SSC, clutch power dissipation is drastically reduced in exchange for the necessity to disengage one engine at a time which requires a multi-DCT drive system topology. In addition to comprehensive simulations, several sections are dedicated to detailed analysis of driveline subsystem components under variable speed operation. In particular an aeroelastic simulation of a stiff in-plane rotor using nonlinear quasi-steady blade element theory was conducted to investigate variable speed rotor dynamics. It was found that 2/rev and 4/rev flap and lag vibrations were significant during resonance crossings with 4/rev lagwise loads being directly transferred into drive-system torque disturbances. To capture the clutch engagement dynamics, a nonlinear stick-slip clutch torque model is developed. Also, a transient gas-turbine engine model based on first principles mean-line compressor and turbine approximations is developed. Finally an analysis of high frequency gear dynamics including the effect of tooth mesh stiffness variation under variable speed operation is conducted including experimental validation. Through exploring the interactions between the various subsystems, this investigation provides important insights into the continuing development of variable-speed rotorcraft propulsion systems.

DeSmidt, Hans A.↗