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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Subsurface heatwaves in lakes

Abstract Lake heatwaves (extreme hot water events) can substantially disrupt aquatic ecosystems. Although surface heatwaves are well studied, their vertical structures within lakes remain largely unexplored. Here we analyse the characteristics of subsurface lake heatwaves (extreme hot events occurring below the surface) using a spatiotemporal modelling framework. Our findings reveal that subsurface heatwaves are frequent, often longer lasting but less intense than surface events. Deep-water heatwaves (bottom heatwaves) have increased in frequency (7.2 days decade −1 ), duration (2.1 days decade −1 ) and intensity (0.2 °C days decade −1 ) over the past 40 years. Moreover, vertically compounding heatwaves, where extreme heat occurs simultaneously at the surface and bottom, have risen by 3.3 days decade −1 . By the end of the century, changes in heatwave patterns, particularly under high emissions, are projected to intensify. These findings highlight the need for subsurface monitoring to fully understand and predict the ecological impacts of lake heatwaves.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Aircraft-derived particle fluxes distinguish entrainment zone and decoupled layer nucleation in marine boundary layers

The vertical distribution of freshly nucleated aerosol particles in the marine boundary layer remains poorly constrained, limiting our ability to represent new particle formation in climate models. Here we characterize 3–10 nm particle events, termed small particle events (SPEs), by deriving their vertical turbulent fluxes from aircraft measurements during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign. To overcome stationarity limitations of traditional eddy covariance methods, we applied continuous wavelet transform analysis to data collected during June–July 2017 and January–February 2018 flights over the Azores. Our flux-based analysis revealed two distinct SPE scenarios with different vertical structures and spatial extents. The first featured nucleation in the entrainment zone, where free tropospheric air entrains into the boundary layer. The second showed nucleation in the decoupled layer, a stratified region between the well-mixed surface layer and cloud-topped upper boundary layer. In both cases, convergence of air masses from different layers diluted preexisting aerosol surface area to very low levels, creating conditions favorable for nucleation and generating strong downward particle fluxes. SPEs occurred in 15 % of flights, challenging prevailing theoretical expectations that new particle formation should rarely occur in marine boundary layers due to high condensation and coagulation sink capacity of sea spray aerosols. Aircraft-derived particle fluxes provide first observational constraints on the vertical location and source strength of likely nucleation regions in the remote marine boundary layer, improving aerosol source representations in climate models and reducing uncertainties in aerosol-cloud interactions.

Rasheeda Satheesh, Ajmal [North Carolina State Uni↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiple Environmental Influences on the Lightning of Cold-Based Continental Convection. Part II: Sensitivity Tests for Its Charge Structure and Land–Ocean Contrast

In Part I, an electrification scheme was described and a simulation of an observed cold-based storm from the U.S. Great Plains was validated with electrical observations. Most charge in the storm was separated by rebounding collisions of secondary ice originating from prior graupel–snow collisions. In this Part II, sensitivity tests are performed with the control simulation (Part I) and influences from environmental factors (aerosols, temperature, moisture, and shear) on lightning are elucidated. Environmental factors [e.g., convective available potential energy (CAPE)] controlling updraft speed are salient. When ascent is reduced by 30% and 70%, flashes become 70% fewer and disappear, respectively; faster ascent promotes positive cloud-to-ground (+CGs) flashes. Since cloud base is too cold (1°C) for coalescence, cloud condensation nucleus aerosol concentrations do not influence the lightning appreciably. The electrical response to varying concentrations of active ice nuclei is limited by most ice particles being secondary and less sensitive—a natural “buffer.” Imposing a maritime sounding suggests that the land–sea contrast in lightning for such storms is due to the vertical structure of environmental temperature and humidity. Weak CAPE, and both entrainment and condensate weight from a low cloud base, suppress ascent and charging. Maritime thermodynamic conditions reduce simulated flash rates by two orders of magnitude. Reducing aerosol loadings from continental to maritime only slightly reinforces this suppression. Last, a conceptual model is provided for how any simulated storm is either normal because graupel/hail is mostly positively charged or else is inverted/anomalous because graupel/hail is mostly negatively charged, with environmental factors controlling the charging. Impacts from microphysical processes, including three processes of secondary ice production, on lightning are analyzed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Annual cycle of aerosol properties over the central Arctic during MOSAiC 2019–2020 – light-extinction, CCN, and INP levels from the boundary layer to the tropopause

Abstract. The MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition was the largest Arctic field campaign ever conducted. MOSAiC offered the unique opportunity to monitor and characterize aerosols and clouds with high vertical resolution up to 30 km height at latitudes from 80 to 90∘ N over an entire year (October 2019 to September 2020). Without a clear knowledge of the complex aerosol layering, vertical structures, and dominant aerosol types and their impact on cloud formation, a full understanding of the meteorological processes in the Arctic, and thus advanced climate change research, is impossible. Widespread ground-based in situ observations in the Arctic are insufficient to provide these required aerosol and cloud data. In this article, a summary of our MOSAiC observations of tropospheric aerosol profiles with a state-of-the-art multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar aboard the icebreaker Polarstern is presented. Particle optical properties, i.e., light-extinction profiles and aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and estimates of cloud-relevant aerosol properties such as the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are discussed, separately for the lowest part of the troposphere (atmospheric boundary layer, ABL), within the lower free troposphere (around 2000 m height), and at the cirrus level close to the tropopause. In situ observations of the particle number concentration and INPs aboard Polarstern are included in the study. A strong decrease in the aerosol amount with height in winter and moderate vertical variations in summer were observed in terms of the particle extinction coefficient. The 532 nm light-extinction values dropped from >50 Mm−1 close to the surface to <5 Mm−1 at 4–6 km height in the winter months. Lofted, aged wildfire smoke layers caused a re-increase in the aerosol concentration towards the tropopause. In summer (June to August 2020), much lower particle extinction coefficients, frequently as low as 1–5 Mm−1, were observed in the ABL. Aerosol removal, controlled by in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging processes (widely suppressed in winter and very efficient in summer) in the lowermost 1–2 km of the atmosphere, seems to be the main reason for the strong differences between winter and summer aerosol conditions. A complete annual cycle of the AOT in the central Arctic could be measured. This is a valuable addition to the summertime observations with the sun photometers of the Arctic Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). In line with the pronounced annual cycle in the aerosol optical properties, typical CCN number concentrations (0.2 % supersaturation level) ranged from 50–500 cm−3 in winter to 10–100 cm−3 in summer in the ABL. In the lower free troposphere (at 2000 m), however, the CCN level was roughly constant throughout the year, with values mostly from 30 to 100 cm−3. A strong contrast between winter and summer was also given in terms of ABL INPs which control ice production in low-level clouds. While soil dust (from surrounding continents) is probably the main INP type during the autumn, winter, and spring months, local sea spray aerosol (with a biogenic aerosol component) seems to dominate the ice nucleation in the ABL during the summer months (June–August). The strong winter vs. summer contrast in the INP number concentration by roughly 2–3 orders of magnitude in the lower troposphere is, however, mainly caused by the strong cloud temperature contrast. A unique event of the MOSAiC expedition was the occurrence of a long-lasting wildfire smoke layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Our observations suggest that the smoke particles frequently triggered cirrus formation close to the tropopause from October 2019 to May 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS): A Methodology to Collect Radar Observations of Convective Cell Life Cycle

Abstract Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS), a smart sensing framework, was adapted to increase the likelihood of observing the vertical structure (with little to no gaps), spatial variability (at subkilometer scale), and temporal evolution (at ∼2-min resolution) of convective cells. This adaptation of MAAS guided two mechanically scanning C-band radars (CSAPR2 and CHIVO) by automatically analyzing the latest NEXRAD data to identify, characterize, track, and nowcast the location of all convective cells forming in the Houston domain. MAAS used either a list of predetermined rules or real-time user input to select a convective cell to be tracked and sampled by the C-band radars. The CSAPR2 tracking radar was first tasked to collect three sector plan position indicator (PPI) scans toward the selected cell. Edge computer processing of the PPI scans was used to identify additional targets within the selected cell. In less than 2 min, both the CSAPR2 and CHIVO radars were able to collect bundles of three to six range–height indicator (RHI) scans toward different targets of interest within the selected cell. Bundles were successively collected along the path of cell advection for as long as the cell met a predetermined set of criteria. Between 1 June and 30 September 2022 over 315 000 vertical cross-section observations were collected by the C-band radars through ∼1300 unique isolated convective cells, most of which were observed for over 15 min of their life cycle. To the best of our knowledge, this dataset, collected primarily through automatic means, constitutes the largest dataset of its kind.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Optimized Parameterization of Sub‐Grid Scale Advection for Convection Permitting Models

Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve deep convection yet under‐resolve the organized lateral exchanges among drafts and their environment that control entrainment/detrainment, precipitation efficiency, and mesoscale structure. In this work, we introduce the Optimized Advection Scheme (OAS), which introduces a small rotation of the Cartesian frame of reference for the horizontal winds relative to other variables used in advection that induces cross‐gradient transport to mimic under‐resolved convective mixing. The rotation angle is selected to minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the simulated and satellite observed precipitation intensity distributions, yielding a physically consistent perturbation that is computationally inexpensive and portable. Optimized Advection Scheme is implemented in WRF and evaluated over Amazon (April 2014). It shifts precipitation–precipitable‐water joint distributions toward lighter rain, reduces overly intense rates, and improves mesoscale convective system (MCS) lifetime and propagation. Mechanistically, the added cross‐gradient transport promotes convective detrainment and environmental mixing, which cools and moistens the mid‐troposphere, weakens downward momentum transport, alleviates excessive downwelling shortwave biases, and warms the surface temperature. The optimized rotation angle yields comparable improvements at 4‐km and 1‐km grid spacing, demonstrating resolution‐independent benefits across the CPM gray zone. By targeting the dynamical root of under‐mixed convective circulations, rather than tuning model microphysics or closures, OAS delivers robust, scale‐aware improvements in precipitation statistics, cloud vertical structure, and characteristics of MCS (MCSs), offering a practical pathway to more reliable CPM simulations for weather and climate applications.

CPM↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Library of Atomically Thin 2D Materials Featuring the Conductive-Point Resistive Switching Phenomenon

Non-volatile resistive switching (NVRS) is a widely available effect in transitional metal oxides, colloquially known as memristors, and of broad interest for memory technology and neuromorphic computing. Until recently, NVRS was not known in other transitional metal dichalcogenides (TMDs), an important material class owing to their atomic thinness enabling the ultimate dimensional scaling. Here, various monolayer or few-layer 2D materials are presented in the conventional vertical structure that exhibit NVRS, including TMDs (MX 2 , M = transitional metal, e.g., Mo, W, Re, Sn, or Pt; X = chalcogen, e.g., S, Se, or Te), TMD heterostructure (WS2/MoS2), and an atomically thin insulator (h-BN). These results indicate the universality of the phenomenon in 2D non-conductive materials, and feature low switching voltage, large ON/OFF ratio, and forming-free characteristic. A dissociation–diffusion–adsorption model is proposed, attributing the enhanced conductance to metal atoms/ions adsorption into intrinsic vacancies, a conductive-point mechanism supported by first-principle calculations and scanning tunneling microscopy characterizations. Our results motivate further research in the understanding and applications of defects in 2D materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clouds and Radiation Processes in Regional Climate Models Evaluated Using Observations Over the Ice‐free Arctic Ocean

Abstract The presence of clouds in the Arctic regulates the surface energy budget (SEB) over the sea‐ice surface and the ice‐free ocean. Following several previous field campaigns, the cloud‐radiation relationship, including cloud vertical structure and phase, has been elucidated; however, modeling of this relationship has matured slowly. In recognition of the recent decline in the Arctic sea‐ice extent, representation of the cloud system in numerical models should consider the effects of areas covered by sea ice and ice‐free areas. Using an in situ stationary meteorological observation data set obtained over the ice‐free Arctic Ocean by the Japanese Research Vessel Mirai (September 2014), coordinated evaluation of six regional climate models (RCMs) with nine model runs was performed by focusing on clouds and the SEB. The most remarkable findings were as follows: (1) reduced occurrence of unstable stratification with low‐level cloud water in all models in comparison to the observations, (2) significant differences in cloud water representations between single‐ and double‐moment cloud schemes, (3) extensive differences in partitioning of hydrometeors including solid/liquid precipitation, and (4) pronounced lower‐tropospheric air temperature biases. These issues are considered as the main sources of SEB uncertainty over ice‐free areas of the Arctic Ocean. The results from a coupled RCM imply that the SEB is constrained by both the atmosphere and the ocean (and sea ice) with considerable feedback. Coordinated improvement of both stand‐alone atmospheric and coupled RCMs would promote a more comprehensive and improved understanding of the Arctic air‐ice‐sea coupled system.

Inoue, Jun↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Illumination of Thunderclouds by Lightning: 3. Retrieving Optical Source Altitude

Abstract Optical space‐based lightning sensors such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) detect and geolocate lightning by recording rapid changes in cloud top illumination. While lightning locations can be determined to within a pixel on the GLM imaging array, these instruments are not individually able to natively report lightning altitude. It has previously been shown that thunderclouds are illuminated differently based on the altitude of the optical source. In this study, we examine how altitude information can be extracted from the spatial distributions of GLM energy recorded from each optical pulse. We match GLM “groups” with Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) source data that accurately report the 3‐D positions of coincident Radio‐Frequency (RF) emitters. We then use machine learning methods to predict the mean LMA source altitudes matched to GLM groups using metrics from the optical data that describe the amplitude, breadth, and texture of the group spatial energy distribution. The resulting model can predict the LMA mean source altitude from GLM group data with a median absolute error of <1.5 km, which is sufficient to determine the location of the charge layer where the optical energy originated. This model is able to capture changes to the source altitude distribution in response to convective processes in the thunderstorm, and the GLM predictions can reveal the vertical structure of individual flashes ‐ enabling 3‐D flash geolocation with GLM for the first time. Future work will account for differences in thunderstorm charge/precipitation structures and viewing angle across the GLM Field of View.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Conventional and Constrained Variational Methods for Computing Large-Scale Budgets and Forcing Fields

Analyses of atmospheric heat and moisture budgets serve as an effective tool to study convective characteristics over a region and to provide large-scale forcing fields for various modeling applications. This paper examines two popular methods for computing large-scale atmospheric budgets: the conventional budget method (CBM) using objectively gridded analyses based primarily on radiosonde data and the constrained variational analysis (CVA) approach which supplements vertical profiles of atmospheric fields with measurements at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface to conserve mass, water, energy, and momentum. Successful budget computations are dependent on accurate sampling and analyses of the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere and the divergence field associated with convection and the large-scale circulation that influences it. Utilizing analyses generated from data taken during Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign conducted over the central Indian Ocean from October to December 2011, we evaluate the merits of these budget approaches and examine their limitations. While many of the shortcomings of the CBM, in particular effects of sampling errors in sounding data, are effectively minimized with CVA, accurate large-scale diagnostics in CVA are dependent on reliable background fields and rainfall constraints. Finally, for the DYNAMO analyses examined, the operational model fields used as the CVA background state provided wind fields that accurately resolved the vertical structure of convection in the vicinity of Gan Island. However, biases in the model thermodynamic fields were somewhat amplified in CVA resulting in a convective environment much weaker than observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Airborne Lidar Measurements of XCO 2 in Synoptically Active Environment and Associated Comparisons With Numerical Simulations

Frontal boundaries have been shown to cause large changes in CO 2 mole-fractions, but clouds and the complex vertical structure of fronts make these gradients difficult to observe. It remains unclear how the column average CO 2 dry air mole-fraction (XCO 2 ) changes spatially across fronts, and how well airborne lidar observations, data assimilation systems, and numerical models without assimilation capture XCO 2 frontal contrasts (ΔXCO 2 , i.e., warm minus cold sector average of XCO 2 ). We demonstrated the potential of airborne Multifunctional Fiber Laser Lidar (MFLL) measurements in heterogeneous weather conditions (i.e., frontal environment) to investigate the ΔXCO 2 during four seasonal field campaigns of the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport-America (ACT-America) mission. Most frontal cases in summer (winter) reveal higher (lower) XCO 2 in the warm (cold) sector than in the cold (warm) sector. During the transitional seasons (spring and fall), no clear signal in ΔXCO 2 was observed. Intercomparison among the MFLL, assimilated fields from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting-—Chemistry (WRF-Chem) showed that (a) all products had a similar sign of ΔXCO 2 though with different levels of agreement in ΔXCO 2 magnitudes among seasons; (b) ΔXCO 2 in summer decreases with altitude; and (c) significant challenges remain in observing and simulating XCO 2 frontal contrasts. A linear regression analyses between ΔXCO 2 for MFLL versus GMAO, and MFLL versus WRF-Chem for summer-2016 cases yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.95 and 0.88, respectively. The reported ΔXCO 2 variability among four seasons provide guidance to the spatial structures of XCO 2 transport errors in models and satellite measurements of XCO 2 in synoptically-active weather systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Convection-Permitting Simulations With the E3SM Global Atmosphere Model

This paper describes the first implementation of the Δx = 3.25 km version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) global atmosphere model and its behavior in a 40-day prescribed-sea-surface-temperature simulation (January 20 through February 28, 2020). This simulation was performed as part of the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) Phase 2 model intercomparison. Effective resolution is found to be ~ 6x the horizontal dynamics grid resolution despite using a coarser grid for physical parameterizations. Despite this new model being in an immature and untuned state, moving to 3.25 km grid spacing solves several long-standing problems with the E3SM model. In particular, Amazon precipitation is much more realistic, the frequency of light and heavy precipitation is improved, agreement between the simulated and observed diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation is excellent, and the vertical structure of tropical convection and coastal stratocumulus look good. In addition, the new model is able to capture the frequency and structure of important weather events (e.g., tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones including atmospheric rivers, and cold air outbreaks). Interestingly, this model does not get rid of the erroneous southern branch of the intertropical convergence zone nor the tendency for strongest convection to occur over the Maritime Continent rather than the West Pacific, both of which are classic climate model biases. Several other problems with the simulation are identified, underscoring the fact that this model is a work in progress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Response of Extreme Rainfall to Atmospheric Warming and Wetting: Implications for Hydrologic Designs Under a Changing Climate

Understanding the processes of rainfall extremes and their response to anthropogenic climate change is pivotal for improved adaptation of unprecedented flood hazards around the world. Here we take the record-breaking 20 July 2021 storm over central China as an example. We investigate the response of this particular storm to atmospheric warming (i.e., increase in air temperature) and wetting (i.e., increase in atmospheric moisture content) based on a series of convection-permitting model simulations. Our results show non-monotonic changes of the space-time rainfall variability to either increased temperature or atmospheric moisture content. The most extreme rain rate is produced when relative humidity is increased by 20~40 % or temperature is increased by less than 2°C. The non-monotonic rainfall response is more clearly revealed at fine spatial (100-1000 km 2 ) and temporal scales (less than 6 hours) rather than over the entire domain (~10 4 km 2 ) and aggregated over the storm duration (around two days). This is mainly attributable to the distinct feedbacks from atmospheric dynamics (i.e., moisture convergence and interaction with regional topography) rather than regulated by thermodynamic changes alone. Furthermore, atmospheric warming poses notable changes in the vertical structure of storm cells, contributing to reduced areal reduction factors at small spatial scales and short durations, while atmospheric wetting additionally modifies storm evolution properties. Our modeling analyses challenge the existing practices for hydrologic designs under a changing climate, highlighting particular vulnerability for cities or small basins to short-duration rainfall extremes and the resultant flash flood hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weakened Orographic Influence on Cool-Season Precipitation in Simulations of Future Warming Over the Western US

High-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations of global warming consistently predict larger percentage increases in precipitation in the lee of midlatitude mountain ranges than on their windward slopes, indicating a weakening of the orographic rain shadow. This redistribution of precipitation could have profound consequences for water resources and ecosystems, but its underlying mechanisms are unknown. Here we show that rain-shadow weakening is just one manifestation of a more general decrease in the influence of orography on precipitation under global warming. We introduce a simple model of precipitation change based on this principle, and find that it agrees well with an ensemble of high-resolution simulations performed over the western United States. We argue that diminished orographic influence can be explained by the unique vertical structure of orographically forced ascent, which tends to maximize in the lower atmosphere where condensation is thermodynamically less sensitive to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ship-based Observations and Climate Model Simulations of Cloud Phase over the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean (SO) clouds exert a significant influence on the Earth’s radiation budget. Here we analyzed ship-based remote sensing observations of SO clouds over a five-month long DOE ARM Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Oceans (MARCUS) field campaign to better understand cloud phase variability. We developed a method to classify eight categories of hydrometeors (ice, liquid, mixed phase, rain, drizzle, snow, aerosols, and clear sky) based on measurements of lidar, radar and radiosondes. Cloud thermodynamic phases (liquid, ice and mixed phase) at coarser scales were further derived to compare with the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) simulation and the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) instrument simulator. For a scale-aware comparison with climate model simulations, we found that spatially averaging the raw remote sensing data (e.g., backscatter, reflectivity) results in increased cloud cover and cloud liquid, whereas, directly averaging cloud phase from higher to lower resolution maintains clear air regions and is thus recommended for in-cloud frequency comparisons. For cloud thermodynamic phases in stratiform clouds, the E3SM underestimates cloud ice and overestimates cloud liquid at temperatures between -40 and 0°C. When latitudes increase, both observations and simulations show a transition of dominant phase from liquid to ice for cloud tops as well as for the entire cloud columns, but the model underestimation of ice phase is more severe at higher latitudes. Such model bias is unlikely caused by spatial scale differences or lack of heterogeneity in cloud vertical structure in the simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Lack of a QBO-MJO Connection in Climate Models With a Nudged Stratosphere

The observed stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the tropospheric Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are strongly connected in boreal winter, with stronger MJO activity when lower-stratospheric winds are easterly. However, the current generation of climate models with internally generated representations of the QBO and MJO do not simulate the observed QBO-MJO connection, for reasons that remain unclear. Furthermore, this study builds on prior work exploring the QBO-MJO link in climate models whose stratospheric winds are relaxed toward reanalysis, reducing stratospheric biases in the model and imposing a realistic QBO. A series of ensemble experiments are performed using four state-of-the-art climate models capable of representing the MJO over the period 1980–2015, each with similar nudging in the stratosphere. In these four models, nudging leads to a good representation of QBO wind and temperature signals, however no model simulates the observed QBO-MJO relationship. Biases in MJO vertical structure and cloud-radiative feedbacks are investigated, but no conclusive model bias or mechanism is identified that explains the lack of a QBO-MJO connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hyper‐Local Temperature Prediction Using Detailed Urban Climate Informatics

The accurate modeling of urban microclimate is a challenging task given the high surface heterogeneity of urban land cover and the vertical structure of street morphology. Recent years have witnessed significant efforts in numerical modeling and data collection of the urban environment. Nonetheless, it is difficult for the physical‐based models to fully utilize the high‐resolution data under the constraints of computing resources. The advancement in machine learning (ML) techniques offers the computational strength to handle the massive volume of data. In this study, we proposed a modeling framework that uses ML approach to estimate point‐scale street‐level air temperature from the urban‐resolving meso‐scale climate model and a suite of hyper‐resolution urban geospatial data sets, including three‐dimensional urban morphology, parcel‐level land use inventory, and weather observations from a sensor network. We implemented this approach in the City of Chicago as a case study to demonstrate the capability of the framework. The proposed approach vastly improves the resolution of temperature predictions in cities, which will help the city with walkability, drivability, and heat‐related behavioral studies. Moreover, we tested the model's reliability on out‐of‐sample locations to investigate the modeling uncertainties and the application potentials to the other areas. This study aims to gain insights into next‐gen urban climate modeling and guide the observation efforts in cities to build the strength for the holistic understanding of urban microclimate dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Cellular Convection Detection and Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks: Insights From Long-Term Observations at ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Marine boundary layer clouds are crucial in Earth's climate system. They frequently manifest as closed or open cell mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). MCC clouds are challenging to represent accurately in current climate models, highlighting the need for detailed observational data sets and in-depth analyses. This study utilizes over 8 years of observations from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site at Graciosa Island, Azores, to investigate these clouds. We first apply a convolutional neural network with a U-Net architecture to classify open and closed cells, marking the first application of such an approach for automatically detecting MCC patterns from ground-based radar measurements. This method addresses some observational gaps in satellite data related to low temporal resolution, nighttime challenges, and limited vertical structure capture. The analysis of the MCC cases shows clear differences between closed and open MCCs: Closed MCC clouds are characterized by lower cloud tops and bases, shallower cloud geometrical depth, weaker horizontal wind speeds, stronger atmospheric stability, and a more homogeneous liquid water path than open MCCs. Finally, we demonstrate two potential applications of our radar-based MCC classifications: (a) facilitating the investigation of aerosol-cloud interactions and (b) exploring meteorological factors along with MCC's evolution by integrating satellite imagery and back-trajectory analysis. The identified MCC cases offer a valuable resource for the scientific community to study MCC processes further and improve climate model accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗