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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical wave modeling for operational and survival analyses of wave energy converters at the US Navy Wave Energy Test Site in Hawaii

The US Navy Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) is currently operating three grid-connected berths off Marine Corps Base Hawaii in support of technological development through scaled-model testing and pre-commercial prototyping. The location on the east shore of Oahu is open to year-round wind waves and seasonal north swells as well as severe seas from subtropical systems and hurricanes. We have assembled a spectral wave model system comprising WAVEWATCH III and SWAN on a hierarchy of global, regional, and nearshore computational grids. With wind forcing from global forecast and rean-alysis datasets as well as their regional downscaling, the system produces operational 7-day wave forecasts and a long-term hindcast. The daily forecasts, validated with real-time buoy measurements, facilitate safe deployment, operation, and retrieval of wave energy converters (WECs). The wave hindcast from 1979 to 2017 defines the intra- and inter-annual variations for statistical analysis of sea states and energy resources. Due to limited occurrences of hurricanes in Hawaii waters, their wind forcing is determined parametrically with simulated tracks from climate model downscaling. Finally, systematic analysis of the hindcast and simulation datasets provides significant wave heights from trade winds, swells, subtropical systems, and hurricanes with return periods up to 100 years for WECs survival analysis.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

The effect of a gravity wave drag parameterization scheme on GLA fourth order GCM forecasts

Ten-day forecast experiments have been performed to determined whether the introduction of a simple orographic gravity wave drag scheme into a fourth-order GCM would reduce the climate drift of the fine resolution model and improve the model's medium range predictive skill. Error reduction due to the gravity waves is found in stratospheric predictions, where the improvement is confined mainly to the zonal mean component. Improvements are noted in the Northern Hemisphere climatology, where low level westerlies are weakened and shifted poleward, and in the Southern Hemisphere, where the roaring forties and fifties are better simulated.

Helfand, H. M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Spatial evolution of ocean wave spectra

The spatially evolving deep water synthetic aperture radar (SAR) directional spectra of a mixed ocean wave system are compared with a comprehensive set of surface and aircraft measurements. The evolution of the SAR spectra, at least for ocean wavelengths greater than 80 m, is seen as generally consistent with the auxiliary data set in both time and space. From the spatial evolution of the angular component of the spectra, it is possible to project back to an apparent remote storm source that is also consistent with the storm location via GOES satellite imagery. The data provide compelling evidence that the spatial evolution of SAR ocean wave spectra can be a useful tool in global ocean wave monitoring and forecasting.

Beal, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Shuttle imaging radar-C science plan

The Shuttle Imaging Radar-C (SIR-C) mission will yield new and advanced scientific studies of the Earth. SIR-C will be the first instrument to simultaneously acquire images at L-band and C-band with HH, VV, HV, or VH polarizations, as well as images of the phase difference between HH and VV polarizations. These data will be digitally encoded and recorded using onboard high-density digital tape recorders and will later be digitally processed into images using the JPL Advanced Digital SAR Processor. SIR-C geologic studies include cold-region geomorphology, fluvial geomorphology, rock weathering and erosional processes, tectonics and geologic boundaries, geobotany, and radar stereogrammetry. Hydrology investigations cover arid, humid, wetland, snow-covered, and high-latitude regions. Additionally, SIR-C will provide the data to identify and map vegetation types, interpret landscape patterns and processes, assess the biophysical properties of plant canopies, and determine the degree of radar penetration of plant canopies. In oceanography, SIR-C will provide the information necessary to: forecast ocean directional wave spectra; better understand internal wave-current interactions; study the relationship of ocean-bottom features to surface expressions and the correlation of wind signatures to radar backscatter; and detect current-system boundaries, oceanic fronts, and mesoscale eddies. And, as the first spaceborne SAR with multi-frequency, multipolarization imaging capabilities, whole new areas of glaciology will be opened for study when SIR-C is flown in a polar orbit.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1990

Simulations of winter blocking episodes using observed sea surface temperatures

The formation of major Northern Hemisphere blockings during January 1979 is studied in numerical simulations of the global atmosphere with a sea surface temperature (SST) field updated with observations during the model integration. Both the standard 4 x 5 degrees latitude-longitude and high-resolution 2 x 2.5 degrees versions of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres general circulation models (GCMs) are employed. The SST field is provided by a blend analysis of in situ and satellite-retrieved data. The simulations by the high-resolution GCM with a realistic SST field of the ocean surface are shown to be capable of producing two successive realistic major blockings in the Pacific and Atlantic through a one-month period. The skill in predicting the blocking formation as obtained in the simulations is due to improved skill in forecasting of ultralog waves. Although the results are encouraging, only one initial state is involved in this series of simulations; therefore, the results should not be generalized yet at this stage of investigation.

Kung, Ernest C.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Altimetry for the Future: Building on 25 Years of Progress

In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved by this methodology in the fields of global and coastal oceanography, hydrology, geodesy and cryospheric sciences. Many symbolic major events have celebrated these developments, e.g., in Venice, Italy, the 15th (2006) and 20th (2012) years of progress and more recently, in 2018, in Ponta Delgada, Portugal, 25 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry. On this latter occasion it was decided to collect contributions of scientists, engineers and managers involved in the worldwide altimetry community to depict the state of altimetry and propose recommendations for the altimetry of the future. This paper summarizes contributions and recommendations that were collected and provides guidance for future mission design, research activities, and sustainable operational radar altimetry data exploitation. Recommendations provided are fundamental for optimizing further scientific and operational advances of oceanographic observations by altimetry, including requirements for spatial and temporal resolution of altimetric measurements, their accuracy and continuity. There are also new challenges and new openings mentioned in the paper that are particularly crucial for observations at higher latitudes, for coastal oceanography, for cryospheric studies and for hydrology. The paper starts with a general introduction followed by a section on Earth System Science including Ocean Dynamics, Sea Level, the Coastal Ocean, Hydrology, the Cryosphere and Polar Oceans and the ‘‘Green” Ocean, extending the frontier from biogeochemistry to marine ecology. Applications are described in a subsequent section, which covers Operational Oceanography, Weather, Hurricane Wave and Wind Forecasting, Climate projection. Instruments’ development and satellite missions’ evolutions are described in a fourth section. A fifth section covers the key observations that altimeters provide and their potential complements, from other Earth observation measurements to in situ data. Section 6 identifies the data and methods and provides some accuracy and resolution requirements for the wet tropospheric correction, the orbit and other geodetic requirements, the Mean Sea Surface, Geoid and Mean Dynamic Topography, Calibration and Validation, data accuracy, data access and handling (including the DUACS system). Section 7 brings a transversal view on scales, integration, artificial intelligence, and capacity building (education and training). Section 8 reviews the programmatic issues followed by a conclusion.

Saleh Abdalla↗
NASA NTRS1987

Toward operational forecasting and detection of weather-producing gravity waves

Detecting (or nowcasting) mesoscale gravity waves whose horizontal wavelengths are 200 km or more is discussed. Synthesis of bandpass-filtered synoptic barograph data with geostationary satellite imagery sequences can accomplish this goal in an operational environment, but only if changes to the operational data collection and transmission systems are made.

Koch, Steven E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Impacts of Waves on Hub-Height Winds off the U.S. West Coast Using Lidar Buoys and Coupled Modeling Approaches

Given the importance of offshore wind energy development to the U.S. clean energy targets, it is vital to be able to characterize the wind resource in that environment accurately. Toward that end, two Bureau of Ocean Energy Management buoys equipped with Doppler lidar are being maintained by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on behalf of the Department of Energy and deployed to regions of potential offshore wind development. In addition to standard meteorological and oceanographic measurements, the buoys document the wind profile between about 40 m and 250 m above the sea surface through Doppler lidar retrievals. After a multiyear deployment of two buoys along the U.S. East Coast, the buoys were redeployed to the U.S. West coast from 2020 – 2022 to locations near the Humboldt and Morro Bay lease areas. The buoys provide nearly continuous, multiyear datasets that can be used to evaluate predictions of hub-height (~100 m) wind speed for standard atmospheric models in the region. In the absence of measurements at the study site, offshore wind developers rely on model-based data to assess site conditions. Potential sources of model error in this environment include under-resolution or misrepresentation of coastal topographically forced flows, marine boundary layer dynamics and the evolution of their associated cloud and turbulence fields, the role of upwelling and other currents on surface heat fluxes into the boundary layer, and the impact of wave fields on surface momentum fluxes and thus the wind speed profile. In particular, most predictive models of wind speed do not predict wave fields at all, relying on parameterizations to represent their effects. In thus study, we focus on evaluating the role of wind / wave interactions on modeled hub-height wind speed and error by using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment–Transport Modeling System to capture two-way interactions between an atmospheric model (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)) and a wave model (WAVEWATCHIII (WW3)) and compare to both stand-alone WRF and one-way coupled WRF / WW3 configurations. Our approach is similar to that used in Gaudet et al. (2022) to evaluate wind / wave coupling over the U.S. East Coast, but applied to the very different environment of the U.S. West Coast. We show examples for two cases, a cold-season frontal case and a warm-season low-level jet case. We find that wind / wave coupling makes little impact on model error for these cases at the location of the lidar buoys, for which other misrepresentations of model physics seems to be responsible for model-observation discrepancies. However, domain-wide evaluations, which also make use of the National Buoy Data Center network, show that a two-way coupling approach is less prone to systematic errors in the hub-height wind field than the one-way coupled approach. WRF resolution of kilometer-scale or less is needed to properly capture the sharp wind speed gradients that can be found along the coastline, and WW3 simulations driven by the downscaled WRF produce better bulk and spectral wave fields when compared to observations. Implications of the results for wind resource characterization are then discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of a midband gravitational wave experiment on detectability of cosmological stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds

In this report we make forecasts for the impact a future “midband” space-based gravitational wave experiment, most sensitive to 10 -2 - 10Hz,could have on potential detections of cosmological stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds (SGWBs). Specific proposed midband experiments considered are TianGo, B-DECIGO, and AEDGE. We propose a combined power-law integrated sensitivity (CPLS) curve combining GW experiments over different frequency bands, which shows the midband improves sensitivity to SGWBs by up to two orders of magnitude at 10 -2 - 10 Hz . We consider GW emission from cosmic strings and phase transitions as benchmark examples of cosmological SGWBs. We explicitly model various astrophysical SGWB sources, most importantly from unresolved black hole mergers. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo, we demonstrated that midband experiments can, when combined with LIGO A+ and LISA, significantly improve sensitivities to cosmological SGWBs and better separate them from astrophysical SGWBs. In particular, we forecast that a midband experiment improves sensitivity to cosmic string tension G μ by up to a factor of 10, driven by improved component separation from astrophysical sources. For phase transitions, a midband experiment can detect signals peaking at 0.1–1 Hz, which for our fiducial model corresponds to early Universe temperatures of T * ~10 4 – 10 6 GeV , generally beyond the reach of LIGO and LISA. The midband closes an energy gap and better captures characteristic spectral shape information. It thus substantially improves measurement of the properties of phase transitions at lower energies of T * ~ O(10 3 ) GeV , potentially relevant to new physics at the electroweak scale, whereas in this energy range LISA alone will detect an excess but not effectively measure the phase transition parameters. Our modeling code and chains are publicly available.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

The wave energy converter control competition (WECCCOMP): Wave energy control algorithms compared in both simulation and tank testing

The wave energy control competition established a benchmark problem which was offered as an open challenge to the wave energy system control community. The competition had two stages: In the first stage, competitors used a standard wave energy simulation platform (WEC-Sim) to evaluate their controllers while, in the second stage, competitors were invited to test their controllers in a real-time implementation on a prototype system in a wave tank. The performance function used was based on converted energy across a range of standard sea states, but also included aspects related to economic performance, such as peak/average power, peak force, etc. This paper compares simulated and experimental results and, in particular, examines if the results obtained in a linear system simulation are borne out in reality. Overall, within the scope of the device tested, the range of sea states employed, and the performance metric used, the conclusion is that high-performance WEC controllers work well in practice, with good carry-over from simulation to experimentation. However, the availability of a good WEC mathematical model is deemed to be crucial.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS2000

Long-Term Global Morphology of Gravity Wave Activity Using UARS Data

Gravity waves in satellite data from CRISTA and MLS are studied in depth this quarter. Results this quarter are somewhat limited due to the PI'S heavy involvement throughout this reporting period in on-site forecasting of mountain wave-induced turbulence for the NASA's ER-2 research aircraft at Kiruna, Sweden during the SAGE Ill Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE). Results reported concentrate on further mesoscale modeling studies of mountain waves over the southern Andes, evident in CRISTA and MLS data. Two-dimensional mesoscale model simulations are extended through generalization of model equations to include both rotation and a first-order turbulence closure scheme. Results of three experiments are analyzed in depth and submitted for publication. We also commence simulations with a three-dimensional mesoscale model (MM5) and present preliminary results for the CRISTA 1 period near southern South America. Combination of ground-based temperature data at 87 km from two sites with global HRDl data was continued this quarter, showing stationary planetary wave structures. This work was also submitted for publication.

Eckermann, Stephen D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Large-Eddy Simulation Study in WRF on Wind over Broadband Waves of Different Directions and Spreading Widths

We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with moving waves to conduct large-eddy simulations (LESs) of wind over broadband waves with different propagating directions and spreading widths. Our results show that wind-opposing waves can double the form drag, and the wave propagating direction affects the mean wind velocity, velocity variances, and pressure stress. On the other hand, waves with wider spread tend to reduce the form drag in the streamwise direction. Results further indicate that the wave direction can impact the bulk drag coefficient by as much as 25%, while the wave directional spreading width can change it by 5%. Based on our wave-phase-resolved simulations, we demonstrate that the parameterization of sea surface roughness is significantly influenced by the direction of wave propagation relative to the wind, a factor that the commonly used Charnock relation does not account for.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems

Abstract. Two-way coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere is recognized as an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and can open windows of opportunity for improved forecasts. Model biases can, however, lead to a poor representation of such coupling processes; drifts in a model's circulation related to model biases, resolution, and parameterizations have the potential to feed back on the circulation and affect stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We introduce a set of diagnostics using readily available data that can be used to reveal these biases and then apply these diagnostics to 22 S2S forecast systems. In the Northern Hemisphere, nearly all S2S forecast systems underestimate the strength of the observed upward coupling from the troposphere to the stratosphere, downward coupling within the stratosphere, and the persistence of lower-stratospheric temperature anomalies. While downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is well represented in the multi-model ensemble mean, there is substantial intermodel spread likely related to how well each model represents tropospheric stationary waves. In the Southern Hemisphere, the stratospheric vortex is oversensitive to upward-propagating wave flux in the forecast systems. Forecast systems generally overestimate the strength of downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere, even as most underestimate the radiative persistence in the lower stratosphere. In both hemispheres, models with higher lids and a better representation of tropospheric quasi-stationary waves generally perform better at simulating these coupling processes.

Garfinkel, Chaim I. (ORCID:000000017258666X)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validating simulated mountain wave impacts on hub-height wind speed using SoDAR observations

The ascent of stably stratified air over a mountain barrier can trigger the generation of mountain waves. Mountain waves occur frequently over the Columbia River Gorge in western North America and can impact wind power generation over the area. Therefore, predicting the details of mountain waves events (e.g., dominant wavelength, timing, and duration) can be very valuable for the wind energy community. In this study, the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate mountain waves and their impact on hub-height wind speed is investigated. Our results suggest that the WRF model has moderate skill in simulating observed mountain wave. Further, given WRF predictions of wavelength range and wave period, the Fast Fourier Transform can calculate the simulated mountain wave impact on hub-height wind speed. The resulting wind speeds agree well with SoDAR observations in terms of both magnitude and pattern. Finally, for the simulated cases, WRF consistently predicts impacts of significant mountain wave events about an hour earlier than the actual observations. Overall, in this work, the sensitivities as well as uncertainties associated with our methodology are discussed in detail.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mountain waves can impact wind power generation

Abstract. Mountains can modify the weather downstream of the terrain. In particular, when stably stratified air ascends a mountain barrier, buoyancy perturbations develop. These perturbations can trigger mountain waves downstream of the mountains that can reach deep into the atmospheric boundary layer where wind turbines operate. Several such cases of mountain waves occurred during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River basin in the lee of the Cascade Range bounding the states of Washington and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Signals from the mountain waves appear in boundary layer sodar and lidar observations as well as in nacelle wind speeds and power observations from wind plants. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations also produce mountain waves and are compared to satellite, lidar, and sodar observations. Simulated mountain wave wavelengths and wave propagation speeds (group velocities) are analyzed using the fast Fourier transform. We found that not all mountain waves exhibit the same speed and conclude that the speed of propagation, magnitudes of wind speeds, or wavelengths are important parameters for forecasters to recognize the risk for mountain waves and associated large drops or surges in power. When analyzing wind farm power output and nacelle wind speeds, we found that even small oscillations in wind speed caused by mountain waves can induce oscillations between full-rated power of a wind farm and half of the power output, depending on the position of the mountain wave's crests and troughs. For the wind plant analyzed in this paper, mountain-wave-induced fluctuations translate to approximately 11 % of the total wind farm output being influenced by mountain waves. Oscillations in measured wind speeds agree well with WRF simulations in timing and magnitude. We conclude that mountain waves can impact wind turbine and wind farm power output and, therefore, should be considered in complex terrain when designing, building, and forecasting for wind farms.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗