SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “wave forecast”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2014

The Sensitivity of WRF Daily Summertime Simulations over West Africa to Alternative Parameterizations. Part 1: African Wave Circulation

The performance of the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a West African regional-atmospheric model is evaluated. The study tests the sensitivity of WRF-simulated vorticity maxima associated with African easterly waves to 64 combinations of alternative parameterizations in a series of simulations in September. In all, 104 simulations of 12-day duration during 11 consecutive years are examined. The 64 combinations combine WRF parameterizations of cumulus convection, radiation transfer, surface hydrology, and PBL physics. Simulated daily and mean circulation results are validated against NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis 2. Precipitation is considered in a second part of this two-part paper. A wide range of 700-hPa vorticity validation scores demonstrates the influence of alternative parameterizations. The best WRF performers achieve correlations against reanalysis of 0.40-0.60 and realistic amplitudes of spatiotemporal variability for the 2006 focus year while a parallel-benchmark simulation by the NASA Regional Model-3 (RM3) achieves higher correlations, but less realistic spatiotemporal variability. The largest favorable impact on WRF-vorticity validation is achieved by selecting the Grell-Devenyi cumulus convection scheme, resulting in higher correlations against reanalysis than simulations using the Kain-Fritch convection. Other parameterizations have less-obvious impact, although WRF configurations incorporating one surface model and PBL scheme consistently performed poorly. A comparison of reanalysis circulation against two NASA radiosonde stations confirms that both reanalyses represent observations well enough to validate the WRF results. Validation statistics for optimized WRF configurations simulating the parallel period during 10 additional years are less favorable than for 2006.

variability↗

NASA NTRS1979

A comparison of limited-area energetic processes between observations and primitive equation model predictions

Energetic analyses of the NMC initial conditions and NMC six-layer primitive equation operational prediction model 12-hr forecast for a developing cyclone are presented. Consideration is given to the total kinetic energy, the energetics of the divergent and nondivergent flows and the baroclinic (vertical shear flow) and barotropic (vertical mean flow) components of the kinetic energy. It is found that the model initial conditions lose 10-15% of the kinetic energy at various levels compared to a limited-area multivariate statistical analysis of the observational data, leading to a decrease in the horizontal kinetic energy flux, a misrepresentation of the synoptic scale wave system in the 12-hr forecast. Similar results are obtained for the nondivergent flow, while the divergent flow energetics are not reproduced accurately by the model. The horizontal flux terms of the vertical mean and vertical shear energetics are also not found to be reproduced in the upper levels, although horizontal flux contributions to the baroclinic component are improved at middle and lower levels. Finally, vertical shear kinetic energy generation is found to be well represented in the model prediction, however kinetic energy conversion between vertical shear and mean flow is not reproduced in the lower layer.

Alpert, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1984

SPECTRASAT: A concept for the collection of global directional wave spectra

The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery from SEASAT revealed a rich tapestry of backscatter patterns from the surface of the ocean. Although still far from being fully understood, these patterns occurred on nearly all spatial scales accessible to the SAR, that is from its spatial resolution of 25 m to its full swath width of 100 km. Futhermore, the backscatter signature appear to reveal a large variety of atmospheric and oceanic processes that occur above, at, and below the ocean surface. Proper interpretation of these signatures of varying scales with respect to their underlying geophysical causes is a major objective of SAR ocean research. Even now, however, it is clear that SAR offers a unique means to monitor wind and waves over global scales. A properly designed, configured, and complimented orbiting SAR system should yield substantial improvements in operational forecasts vital to marine activities. Since wind and wave information is optimally extracted in the spectral domain, the name SPECTRASAT is proposed for this global collection scheme.

Beal, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Solitary Rossby waves in zonal shear flows and their interactions

Interactions of long-wave solitons propagating in shear flows are described by a coupled pair of Korteweg-de Vries equations. The basic equation of motion for the analysis is the quasi-geostrophic forecast equation, and the interaction of two wave modes is studied. The solution for mode 1-mode 2 interaction of solitary waves in an asymmetric shear flow of a barotropic atmosphere with divergence is constructed. Streamline patterns for certain flows are obtained. An unsteady solitary wave solution for a modified Korteweg-de Vries equation is derived.

Redekopp, L. G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Statrospheric warmings during the winter of 1979

Some of the arguments crucial to the current understanding of stratospheric warmings are recapitulated briefly. The circulation at 10 mb during the winter of 1979 is described. A review of numerical forecasts of stratospheric warmings reveals that, in general, these events are predictable from several days in advance. In some cases, however, relatively small errors in the predicted tropospheric zonal mean wind produce large differences in upward wave propagation and, consequently, in the stratospheric forecast.

Mechoso, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Boreal Winter Predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The Role of Boundary Forcing and Initial Conditions

Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.

Chang, Yehui↗

NASA NTRS1985

Objective Determination of Heat Wave Patterns

A simple index was developed in order to objectively characterize a heat wave pattern in either analyses or forecasts of 500 mb height. 500 mb height was chosen because this parameter is usually among the most accurate fields predicted by numerical models. In addition, it is highly correlated with the surface air temperature on many time scales. The heat index IN is designed to be applied to any region of interest and to be used for any objectively analyzed data and specifically those of NWP models.

Wolfson, N.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Potential to kinetic energy conversion in wave number domain for the Southern Hemisphere

Preliminary results of a wave number study conducted for the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) using FGGE data for the period January 10-27, 1979 are reported. In particular, three variables (geomagnetic height, z, vertical p-velocity, omega, and temperature, T) and one energy conversion quantity, omega-alpha (where alpha is the specific volume), are shown. It is demonstrated that wave number 4 plays an important role in the conversion from available potential energy to kinetic energy in the Southern Hemisphere tropics, particularly in the vicinity of the SPCZ. It is therefore suggested that the development and movement of wave number 4 waves be carefully monitored in making forecasts for the South Pacific region.

Huang, H.-J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Detection of the Earth with the SETI microwave observing system assumed to be operating out in the galaxy

This paper estimates the maximum range at which radar signals from the Earth could be detected by a search system similar to the NASA Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Microwave Observing Project (SETI MOP) assumed to be operating out in the galaxy. Figures are calculated for the Targeted Search, and for the Sky Survey parts of the MOP, both operating, as currently planned, in the second half of the decade of the 1990s. Only the most powerful terrestrial transmitters are considered, namely, the planetary radar at Arecibo in Puerto Rico, and the ballistic missile early warning systems (BMEWS). In each case the probabilities of detection over the life of the MOP are also calculated. The calculation assumes that we are only in the eavesdropping mode. Transmissions intended to be detected by SETI systems are likely to be much stronger and would of course be found with higher probability to a greater range. Also, it is assumed that the transmitting civilization is at the same level of technological evolution as ours on Earth. This is very improbable. If we were to detect another technological civilization, it would, on statistical grounds, be much older than we are and might well have much more powerful transmitters. Both factors would make detection by the NASA MOP a much more likely outcome.

NASA Center ARC↗

NASA NTRS1986

A simple diagnostic tool for the investigation of persistent phenomena with application to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

A simple and readily-computed index for diagnostic and numerical weather prediction studies of heat waves and other persistent anomalies has been developed. The index takes into account the two important factors of intensity and persistence and it is highly correlated to the surface air temperature on a variety of time-scales. The utilization of this index for investigating the severe, summer 1980 U.S. heat wave and drought results in an instructive description of the spatial and temporal development of the phenomenon. An assessment of the skill of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) model in forecasting the initiation and breakdown of the heat wave in terms of the index is also illustrated.

Wolfson, Noah↗

NASA NTRS1987

Numerical experiments related to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order GCM was used in a series of medium-range numerical forecast experiments in order to improve understanding of the severe summer 1980 heat wave over the U.S. The results show that the derived soil moisture anomalies in the summer of 1980 contributed positively to the model's simulation of the heat wave maintenance, and suggest that once a region of reduced soil moisture is established, it tends to persist and maintain warmer and drier conditions. The lower soil moisture values resulted in reduced evaporation, higher ground temperatures, increased sensible heat flux from ground to air, higher surface air temperature, lower sea-level pressure, and higher 500-mb height. The effects of North Pacific sea-surface-temperature anomalies were mostly opposite to those of the soil-moisture anomalies: enhanced northerly flow of cooler drier air, increased evaporation, lower ground and air temperature, higher sea level pressure, and lower 500 mb heights over the Great Plains.

Wolfson, N.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Investigation of the 2016 Eurasia heat wave as an event of the recent warming

This study investigates the physical mechanisms that contributed to the 2016 Eurasian heat wave during boreal summer season (July–August, JA), characterized by much higher than normal temperatures over eastern Europe, East Asia, and the Kamchatka Peninsula. It is found that the 2016 JA mean surface air temperature, upper-tropospheric height, and soil moisture anomalies are characterized by a tri-pole pattern over the Eurasia continent and a wave train-like structure not dissimilar to recent (1980–2016) trends in those quantities. A series of forecast experiments designed to isolate the impacts of the land, ocean, and sea ice conditions on the development of the heat wave is carried out with the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5. The results suggest that the tri-pole blocking pattern over Eurasia, which appears to be instrumental in the development of the 2016 summer heat wave, can be viewed as an expression of the recent trends, amplified by record-breaking oceanic warming and internal land-atmosphere interactions.

Eunkyo Seo↗

NASA NTRS1987

The effect of increased horizontal resolution on GLA Fourth Order model forecasts

A benchmark series of ten-day weather forecasts has been run with the GLA Fourth Order GCM with both a 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude resolution and a 2 deg latitude by 2.5 deg longitude resolution. Ensemble statistics of forecast skill and maps of systematic error fields have been generated for both resolutions. The enhanced resolution added 24 hours of useful predictive skill to the sea level pressure forecasts and 6 hours to the 500 mb height forecasts, but 5 to 6 days into the forecasts the advantage of the finer resolution was lost. The systematic error fields showed that by 8 days the 'climate drift' of the 2 x 2.5 deg forecasts had become pronounced and had caused the loss of predictive skill relative to the 4 x 5 deg forecasts. Additional results indicate that a gravity wave drag parameterization scheme might alleviate the climate drift problem.

Helfand, H. M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Measurements of Stratospheric Mountain Waves from Space

Temperatures acquired by the Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere (CRISTA) during shuttle mission STS-66 have provided measurements of stratospheric mountain waves from space. Large-amplitude, long-wavelength mountain waves at heights of 15 to 30 kilometers above the southern Andes Mountains were observed and characterized, with vigorous wave breaking inferred above 30 kilometers. Mountain waves also occurred throughout the stratosphere (15 to 45 kilometers) over a broad mountainous region of central Eurasia. The global distribution of mountain wave activity accords well with predictions from a mountain wave model. The findings demonstrate that satellites can provide the global data needed to improve mountain wave parameterizations and hence global climate and forecast models.

Eckermann, Stephen D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Sub-Picometer Dynamic Measurements of a Diffuse Surface

Future space observatory missions are forecasting the need for sensing and controlling wave front error and system alignment stability to picometer scale. Picometer stability performance demands precision knowledge of the mirror and metering structure materials to the same degree. A high-speed electronic speckle pattern interferometer was designed and built to demonstrate measurements of both static and dynamic responses of picometer amplitudes in materials of diffuse surface subjected to very low energy disturbances. This paper describes the details of a test to impart a dynamic disturbance of picometer scale and measure the response of a composite material.The results of the test are also reported and show conclusively that sub-picometer scale effects can be accurately measured in an open test environment outside a vacuum chamber.

Saif, Babak↗

NASA NTRS2004

Sensitivity of Middle Atmospheric Analysis to the Representation of Gravity Wave Drag

This study examines the sensitivity of middle atmospheric analyses to the representation of gravity wave drag (GWD) in the general circulation model (GCM). A strong sensitivity of temperatures near the stratopause to the inclusion and representation of waves with non-zero phase speeds is isolated; this is consistent with the induced mean meridional circulation. The change (between a control analysis and one with no GWD) decreases with decreasing altitude and has a vertical structure with alternating positive and negative differences that are caused by the constraint on thick-layer radiances offered by near-nadir sounding radiometers. Without the non-zero phase-speed GWI), there is a large observation minus forecast residual that is substantially smaller when these waves are included, indicating the need for these waves in the GCM. Moreover, the sensitivity of analyzed temperatures to the inclusion of these waves reveals the importance of using a non-biased GCM in regions where the observational constraint (thick-layer radiances) is indirect.

Li, Shu-Hua↗

NASA NTRS1986

Comparison of vertical velocities analyzed by a numerical model and measured by a VHF wind profiler

The use of wind profilers for measuring vertical velocities in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is potentially of great interest for verification of forecasts, diagnosis of mesoscale circulations, and studies of wave motions. The studies of profiler vertical velocities to date have shown that the observed patterns of ascent and subsidence are reasonable when compared to the synoptic conditions. However, difficulties arise when a direct verification of the profiler vertical winds is sought. Since no other technique can measure the vertical velocities over the same height range and with the same claimed accuracy as the profilers, direct comparisons are impossible. The only alternative is to compare the measurements to analyzed vertical velocity fields. Here, researchers compare vertical measurements made with the SOUSY VHF radar over a period of 11 days at the beginning of November 1981 to the analyzed vertical velocities produced by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model for grid points near the radar site.

Larsen, M. F.↗