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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Tracer-based Determination of Vortex Descent in the 1999/2000 Arctic Winter

A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999/2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for 26 November 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences we inferred descent prior to 26 November: as much as 397 plus or minus 15 K (lsigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and falling to 28 plus or minus 13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from 26 November through 12 March, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between 26 November and 27 January: 0.82 plus or minus 0.20 K/day averaged over 50- 250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (26 February to 12 March), the average rate had decreased to 0.10 plus or minus 0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (26 November to 5 March) descent rate varied from 0.75 plus or minus 0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40 plus or minus 0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999/2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Greenblatt, Jeffrey B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Abrupt Decline in the Arctic Winter Sea Ice Cover

Maximum ice extents in the Arctic in 2005 and 2006 have been observed to be significantly lower (by about 6%) than the average of those of previous years starting in 1979. Since the winter maxima had been relatively stable with the trend being only about -1.5% per decade (compared to about -10% per decade for the perennial ice area), this is a significant development since signals from greenhouse warming are expected to be most prominent in winter. Negative ice anomalies are shown to be dominant in 2005 and 2006 especially in the Arctic basin and correlated with winds and surface temperature anomalies during the same period. Progressively increasing winter temperatures in the central Arctic starting in 1997 is observed with significantly higher rates of increase in 2005 and 2006. The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) indices correlate weakly with the sea ice and surface temperature anomaly data but may explain the recent shift in the perennial ice cover towards the western region. Results suggest that the trend in winter ice is finally in the process of catching up with that of the summer ice cover.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Summer and Winter California Central Valley Aerosol Distributions from Lidar and MODIS Measurements

Aerosol distributions from two aircraft lidar campaigns conducted in the California Central Valley are compared in order to identify seasonal variations. Aircraft lidar flights were conducted in June 2003 and February 2007. While the ground PM(sub 2.5) concentration is highest in the winter, the aerosol optical depth measured from MODIS is highest in the summer. A seasonal comparison shows that PM(sub 2.5) in the winter can exceed summer PM(sub 2.5) by 55%, while summer AOD exceeds winter AOD by 43%. Higher temperatures and wildfires in the summer produce elevated aerosol layers that are detected by satellite measurements, but not surface particulate matter monitors. Temperature inversions, especially during the winter, contribute to higher PM(sub 2.5) measurements at the surface. Measurements of the boundary layer height from lidar instruments provide valuable information need to understand the relationship between satellite measurements of optical depth and in-situ measurements of PM(sub 2.5).

Lewis, Jasper↗
NASA NTRS2011

Titan's Emergence from Winter

We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from winter to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the winter northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of winter shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic warming as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the warm temperatures observed higher up at the winter polar stratopause cool significantly.

Flasar, F. Michael↗
NASA NTRS2012

Atmospheric Effects of Energetic Particle Precipitation in the Arctic Winter 1978-1979 Revisited

The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) measured polar stratospheric enhancements of NO2 mixing ratios due to energetic particle precipitation (EPP) in the Arctic winter of 1978-1979. Recently reprocessed LIMS data are compared to more recent measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to place the LIMS measurements in the context of current observations. The amount of NOx (NO + NO2) entering the stratosphere that has been created by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (EPP-NOx) has been quantified for the 1978-1979 and 2002-2003 through 2008-2009 Arctic winters. The NO2 enhancements in the LIMS data are similar to those in MIPAS and ACE-FTS data in the Arctic winters of 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2006-2007, and 2007-2008. The largest enhancement by far is in 2003-2004 (approximately 2.2 Gmol at 1500 K), which is attributed to a combination of elevated EPP and unusual dynamics that led to strong descent in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere in late winter. The enhancements in 2005-2006 and 2008-2009, during which large stratospheric NOx enhancements were caused by a dynamical situation similar to that in 2003 2004, are larger than in all the other years (except 2003-2004) at 3000 K. However, by 2000 K the enhancements in 2005-2006 (2008-2009) are on the same order of magnitude as (smaller than) all other years. These results highlight the importance of the timing of the descent in determining the potential of EPP-NOx for reaching the middle stratosphere.

Holt, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons

The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.

Variability↗
NASA NTRS2020

Over-Winter Persistence of Supraglacial Lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet: Results and Insights From a New Model

We present a newly developed 1-D numerical energy-balance and phase transition supraglacial lake model: Glacier Lake. Glacier Lake incorporates snowfall, in situ snow and ice melt, incoming water from the surrounding catchment, ice lid formation, basal freeze-up and thermal stratification. Snow cover and temperature are varied to test lake development through winter and the maximum lid thickness is recorded. Average wintertime temperatures of −2 to −30◦C and total snowfall of 0 to 3.45 m lead to a range of the maximum lid thickness from 1.2 to 2.8 m after ~250 days, with snow cover exerting the dominant control. An initial ice temperature of −15◦C with simulated advection of cold ice from upstream results in 0.6 m of basal freeze-up. This suggests that lakes with water depths above 1.3 to 3.4 m (dependent on winter snowfall and temperature) upon lid formation will persist through winter. These buried lakes can provide a sizeable water store at the start of the melt season, expedite future lake formation and warm underlying ice even in winter.

glacier hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2022

Volcanic Stratospheric Injections up to 160 Tg(S) Yield a Eurasian Winter Warming Indistinguishable from Internal Variability

Early observational and modeling work suggested that low-latitude volcanic eruptions, comparable to the one of Pinatubo in 1991 or Krakatau in 1883, cause substantial surface warming over the northern continents at mid-latitudes in winter. The proposed mechanism consists of the formation of an anomalously strong Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere due to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the tropics, which are accompanied by an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex, which then shifts the Northern Annular Mode into a positive phase, resulting in warming surface temperatures over Eurasia. However, a large body of research in the past decade has shown that, for eruptions such as Pinatubo or Krakatau, no such warming is seen in simulations with more recent climate models which, in general, have much finer vertical and horizontal resolution than the early ones, and which have separated the forced response from the internal variability by using large ensembles of integrations. Since the proposed physical mechanism is sound, it is then possible that eruptions comparable to those of Pinatubo or Krakatau are simply too weak, but even larger ones might indeed be capable of causing Eurasian surface warming in winter. In this study, we explore this possibility using a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving climate model, forced with prescribed aerosols from the Easy Volcanic Aerosol protocol. We consider eruptions with stratospheric sulfur injections of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 Tg(S). With 20-member ensembles, we find that with injections of 20 Tg(S) or more – roughly twice the amplitude of the Pinatubo and Krakatau eruptions – our model simulates a winter surface warming over Eurasia, which is statistically significant with a t test given our 20-member ensembles. However, the forced volcanic signal on Eurasian winter surface temperatures is very small, barely exceeding the 1σ range of internal variability for the 160 Tg(S) injection case, and much smaller for smaller eruptions. Most importantly, the number of eruptions needed to establish statistical significance is considerably larger than the number of eruptions known to have occurred in the past 2000 years.

Volcanic eruptions↗
NASA NTRS2024

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Winter Fram Strait Ice Area Export: Model vs Observations

Observations show predictive skill of the minimum sea ice extent (Min SIE) from late winter anomalous off-shore ice drift along the Eurasian coastline – leading to local ice thickness anomalies at the onset of the melt season – a signal then amplified by the ice-albedo feedback. We assess whether the observed seasonal predictability of September sea ice extent (Sept SIE) from Fram Strait Ice Area Export (FSIAE, a proxy for Eurasian coastal divergence) is present in Global Climate Model (GCM) large ensembles, namely the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1, and CanESM5. All models show distinct periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are negatively correlated with the May sea ice thickness (May SIT) anomalies along the Eurasian coastline, and the following Sept Arctic SIE, as in observations. Counter-intuitively, several models show occasional periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are positively correlated with the following Sept SIE anomalies when the mean ice thickness is large or late in the simulation when the sea ice is thin, and/or when internal variability increases. More importantly, periods with weak correlation between FSIAE and the Sept SIE dominate, suggesting that summer melt processes dominate over late winter preconditioning and May SIT anomalies. In general, we find that the coupling between the FSIAE and ice thickness anomalies along the Eurasian coastline is an ubiquitous feature of GCMs and that the relationship with the following Sept SIE is dependent on the mean Arctic sea ice thickness.

off-shore ice drift↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamics of the Remarkable Southern Hemisphere Winter of 2024

Typical Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric winters are characterized by relatively weak planetary wave dynamics when compared to the Northern Hemisphere winter, especially in early and mid-winter. However, the SH stratospheric winter 2024 saw the development of two large wave events in July. These wave events were associated with the slowing of the polar vortex winds and positive polar temperature anomalies. The second of these two events saw the development of a zonal wavenumber two that was larger in amplitude than seen in the 1980-present record from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications – version 2 (MERRA-2). Here we present diagnostics characterizing the wave and mean circulation such as EP (Eliassen-Palm Flux) and residual mean meridional circulation during these events and trace the origin of these stratospheric disturbances to the troposphere. Results show the increase in wave activity associated with the slowing of the zonal wind and the increase in the strength of the poleward and downward circulation associated with the warm anomaly. Analysis of the wave and circulation anomalies will continue through September 2024.

Lawrence Coy↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improving the Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in the United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day Information

Wheat is themost important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely production forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop typemasks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel (area within the CMG pixel occupied by wheat), and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: the Unites States (US), Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest), while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

Production↗
NASA NTRS1973

Partial-reflection studies of D-region winter variability

D-region electron densities were measured from December, 1972, to July, 1973, at Urbana, Illinois (latitude 40.2N) using the partial-reflection technique. During the winter, electron densities at altitudes of 72, 76.5, and 81 km show cyclical changes with a period of about 5 days that are highly correlated between these altitudes, suggesting that the mechanism responsible for the winter anomaly in D-region ionization applies throughout this height region. From January 13 to February 3, a pronounced wave-like variation occurred in the partial-reflection measurements, apparently associated with a major stratospheric warming that developed in that period. During the same time period, a traveling periodic variation is observed in the 10-mb height; it is highly correlated with the partial-reflection measurements. Electron density enhancements occur approximately at the same time as increases in the 10-mb height. Comparison of AL and A3 absorption measurements with electron density measurements below 82 km indicates that the winter anomaly in D-region ionization is divided into two types. Type 1, above about 82 km, extends horizontally for about 200 km while type 2, below about 82 km, extends for a horizontal scale of at least 1000 km.

Denny, B. W.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A direct measurement of the winter helium bulge

In late December 1975, the orbital configuration of the Atmosphere Explorer-D satellite made possible the measurement of the winter helium bulge within a single perigee pass. Shortly after the winter solstice, the perigee of the polar-orbiting AE-D satellite crossed the equator, at which time descending and ascending portions of the orbit stretched symmetrically over the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. The open-source neutral mass spectrometer (OSS) on board AE-D measured helium densities between the perigee (about 150 km) and altitudes of 650 km. During the time the perigee was at the equator, altitudes above approximately 550 km were located north and south at latitudes greater than 50-deg. Helium showed, in the winter hemisphere, densities that were a factor of 20 higher than at corresponding altitudes and latitudes in the Southern (summer) Hemisphere. Absolute densities of helium agree well with previous measurements.

Mauersberger, K.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Comparisons of observed seasonal climate features with a winter and summer numerical simulation produced with the GLAS general circulation model

Results are presented from numerical simulations performed with the general circulation model (GCM) for winter and summer. The monthly mean simulated fields for each integration are compared with observed geographical distributions and zonal averages. In general, the simulated sea level pressure and upper level geopotential height field agree well with the observations. Well simulated features are the winter Aleutian and Icelandic lows, the summer southwestern U.S. low, the summer and winter oceanic subtropical highs in both hemispheres, and the summer upper level Tibetan high and Atlantic ridge. The surface and upper air wind fields in the low latitudes are in good agreement with the observations. The geographical distirbutions of the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance and of the precipitation rates over the oceans are well simulated, but not all of the intensities of these features are correct. Other comparisons are shown for precipitation along the ITCZ, rediation balance, zonally averaged temperatures and zonal winds, and poleward transports of momentum and sensible heat.

Halem, M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Winter Anomaly of the Lower Ionosphere and Its Possible Causes

It is a well-known fact that in winter the midlatitude lower ionosphere differs considerably from that in summer. Attempts to explain the possible causes of the winter anomaly in the lower ionosphere were made. Integrated ground-based and rocket experiments were performed in the USSR. The rockets M-100B launched in Volgograd (psi = 48.7 deg N; lambda = 44.3 deg E; psi = 43.1 deg) provided weight profiles of electron density, wind and temperature. Radio wave absorption data obtained by a I method in Volgograd and F sub min parameters values obtained at a number of Soviet ionosone stations were used to determine the situation in the lower ionosphere. It was found that a correct interpretation of the midlatitude winter radio wave absorption changes is possible only if the whole spatial-time pattern of the event is taken into account.

Rapoport, Z. T.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The integrated enstrophy budget of the winter stratosphere diagnosed from LIMS data

The quasi-geostrophic integrated enstrophy budget for the 1978 to 1979 winter has been analyzed from 10-0.1 mb using LIMS data. During January and late February periods a significant imbalance in the budget appears at 10mb. This imbalance is attributed to Rossby wave breaking. It is produced by the irreversible transfer of enstrophy to smaller scales not resolved by LIMS. The imbalance episodes correspond well to the appearance of Ertel vorticity filaments shown by McIntyre and Palmer (1984). From a seasonal viewpoint, the integrated enstrophy shows an average (although irregular) transfer from a zonal mean reservoir to waves which are then dissipated. On a shorter time scale the integrated enstrophy sloshes back and forth between the waves and mean flow in early winter; then, beginning with the January sudden warming, the total enstrophy is reduced more rapidly. Between 10 mb and 1 mb this reduction is more or less continuous until the end of February. However, in the mesosphere the total enstrophy decrease is very short lived, being quickly restored after the January warming. Even though the zonal mean integrated enstrophy is large, only about 10% can be utilized by the waves. The available integrated potential enstrophy is introduced, which is a better measure of how close the flow is to saturation by Rossby waves. The largest amount of available potential enstrophy in early January is at 1 mb with decreasing amounts above and below. Saturation of the flow by Rossby waves occurs below 1 mb only coincident with sudden warmings; however, at mesospheric heights the flow appears to be nearly saturated throughout the winter.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Aerosol nucleation in the winter Arctic and Antarctic stratospheres

The formation rate of sulfuric-acid-water aerosol particles is calculated as a function of altitude for the conditions of the winter Arctic and Antarctic stratospheres. The theoretical results indicate that sulfate particle formation can occur in the polar winter stratosphere. Conditions for new particle formation are increasingly favorable as the altitude increases between 20 and 30 km because of the decrease in surface area of preexisting particles and increasing sulfuric-acid vapor supply. The theoretical predictions are consistent with observations of a high-altitude CN layer over Antarctica in the spring. Available vapor-pressure data indicate that ternary particles composed of sulfuric acid, nitric acid, and water are not thermodynamically stable under winter stratospheric conditions.

Hamill, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1991

Quasi-biennial modulation of planetary-wave fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter

Using 25 years of National Meteorological Center (NMC) data for 1964-88 the relation between tropical and extratropical quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) was examined for zonally averaged quantities and planetary-wave Eliassen-Palm fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The extratropical QBO discussed by Holton and Tan (1980) existed in both temporal halves of the dataset. Autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that it was an important mode of interannual variability in the extratropical winter stratosphere. Correlation with the tropics was strongest when 40-mb equatorial winds were used to define the tropical QBO. Easterly phase at 40 mb implied a weaker than normal polar night jet and warmer than normal polar temperature and vice versa. An opposite relationship was obtained using 10-mb equatorial winds. The association between tropical and extratropical QBOs was observed in about 90 percent of the winters and was statistically significant. It is shown that planetary-wave Eliassen-Palm fluxes were generally consistent with the extratropical QBO. These fluxes were more (less) convergent in the midlatitude (subtropical) upper stratosphere in the 40-mb east (= easterly) phase category relative to the west category.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗