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At least 73 records · Page 4

Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO 2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 in the United States. Here, this paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO 2 capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO 2 in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO 2 , and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Majorana zero modes in impurity-assisted vortex of LiFeAs superconductor

The iron-based superconductor is emerging as a promising platform for Majorana zero mode, which can be used to implement topological quantum computation. One of the most significant advances of this platform is the appearance of large vortex level spacing that strongly protects Majorana zero mode from other low-lying quasiparticles. Despite the advantages in the context of physics research, the inhomogeneity of various aspects hampers the practical construction of topological qubits in the compounds studied so far. Here we show that the stoichiometric superconductor LiFeAs is a good candidate to overcome this obstacle. By using scanning tunneling microscopy, we discover that the Majorana zero modes, which are absent on the natural clean surface, can appear in vortices influenced by native impurities. Our detailed analysis reveals a new mechanism for the emergence of those Majorana zero modes, i.e. native tuning of bulk Dirac fermions. The discovery of Majorana zero modes in this homogeneous material, with a promise of tunability, offers an ideal material platform for manipulating and braiding Majorana zero modes, pushing one step forward towards topological quantum computation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hidden amplitude zeros from the double-copy map

Recently, Arkani-Hamed proposed the existence of zeros in scattering amplitudes in certain quantum field theories including the cubic adjoint scalar theory Tr ( ϕ 3 ) , the S U ( N ) nonlinear sigma model and Yang-Mills theory. These hidden zeros are special kinematic points where the amplitude vanishes and factorizes into a product of lower-point amplitudes, similar to factorization near poles. In this paper, we show a close connection between the existence of such zeros and the double-copy map. In fact, compatibility with the Bern-Carrasco-Johansson relations requires the presence of these zeros. We also show that these zeros extend via the Kawai-Lewellen-Tye relations to special Galileon amplitudes and their corrections, evincing that these hidden zeros are also present in permutation-invariant amplitudes. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Bartsch, Christoph (ORCID:0000000174296682)↗

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

Net Zero World Initiative: Accelerating Global Energy System Decarbonization

The United States, partner countries and philanthropies are joining forces to accelerate the transition to clean, secure energy systems and build a Net Zero World. The Net Zero World Initiative leverages expertise across U.S. government agencies and Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, in partnership with other governments and philanthropies, to accelerate the decarbonization of global energy systems. This whole-of-government approach supports countries committed to raising their climate ambitions by creating and implementing highly tailored, actionable technical and investment strategies that put net zero within reach. The Net Zero World Initiative enables country partners to harness the power and technical expertise of U.S. and international industry, think tanks, and universities.

clean energy investment strategies↗

Net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal

As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. In this study, we show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170–200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16–29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120–210 km 3 /year), avoided air pollution damages (220–300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300–500 thousand km 2 ). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Removal of As(V) from wastewaters using magnetic iron oxides formed by zero-valent iron electrocoagulation

Electrocoagulation of zero-valent iron has been widely applied to the removal of dissolved arsenic, but the solid-liquid separation of arsenic-containing precipitates remains technically challenging. In this work, zero-valent iron was electrochemically oxidized to magnetic iron oxides for the removal of As(V) from simulated and actual mining wastewaters. The results indicated that lepidocrocite was formed when zero-valent iron was oxidized by dissolved oxygen, but ferrihydrite and green rust were first formed and then transformed to magnetic iron oxides (mainly magnetite and maghemite) in the electrochemical oxidation from 0 to 0.9 V (vs. SCE), which facilitates the adsorption of As(V) and subsequent solid-liquid separation under a magnetic field. In simulated As(V)-containing solution with initial pH 7.0, zero-valent iron was electrochemically oxidized to magnetite and maghemite at 0.6 V (vs. SCE) for 2 h. The As(V) concentration first decreased from 5127.5 to 26.8 μg L -1 with a removal ratio of 99.5%. In actual mining wastewaters, zero-valent iron was electrochemically oxidized to maghemite at 0.6 V (vs. SCE) for 24 h, and the As(V) concentration decreased from 5486.4 to 3.6 μg L -1 with a removal ratio of 99.9%. The removal ratio of As(V) increased slightly with increasing potential, and increased first and then decreased with increasing initial pH. Compared with that of SO 4 2- and NO 3 - , the presence of Cl - significantly enhanced the removal of As(V). This work provides a highly efficient, facile and low-cost technique for the treatment of arsenic-containing wastewaters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Signature of a pair of Majorana zero modes in superconducting gold surface states

Under certain conditions, a fermion in a superconductor can separate in space into two parts known as Majorana zero modes, which are immune to decoherence from local noise sources and are attractive building blocks for quantum computers. Promising experimental progress has been made to demonstrate Majorana zero modes in materials with strong spin–orbit coupling proximity coupled to superconductors. Here we report signatures of Majorana zero modes in a material platform utilizing the surface states of gold. Using scanning tunneling microscope to probe EuS islands grown on top of gold nanowires, we observe two well-separated zero-bias tunneling conductance peaks aligned along the direction of the applied magnetic field, as expected for a pair of Majorana zero modes. This platform has the advantage of having a robust energy scale and the possibility of realizing complex designs using lithographic methods.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Net-Zero Carbon Microgrids

The microgrid concept has been effective in creating aggregations of distributed energy resources—generation, storage and loads—for resiliency, in the form of energy security. The success of microgrids in bringing energy security to a wide range of customers—from individual residences to commercial and industrial installations to military bases—has been exemplified during power disruptions and extended outages due to extreme weather events, cybersecurity attacks, and equipment failures. Now microgrids have an opportunity to meet the challenges of climate change and contribute to a carbon-free power delivery system. The transition to net-zero starts within microgrids themselves. In fact, today’s microgrids are largely dominated by generators using fossil fuels, natural gas and diesel, with high greenhouse gas emissions. In short, the transition to net-zero means replacing fossil fueled generators with renewable generation in microgrids. This transition is extended by including new dispatchable generation technologies that are 100% carbon-free and that offer additional advantage of a more-dependable and sustainable source of energy and power. Basically, the decarbonization of microgrids requires three elements: 1) maximizing generation from renewable energy resources, 2) management of storage and flexible loads to balance the variability and intermittency of renewable energy resources, and 3) introducing new clean power sources, including hydrogen-based generation and small modular reactors. This report affirms a need for specific focus by governmental agencies at national, regional, and local levels to establish technology, policy, and investment in this area. The intention of the Net-Zero Microgrid (NZM) Program is to inform these constituencies with cross-cutting research and tools for the reduction of GHG in microgrids – to net-zero in the near term eventually to zero in the longer term. The NZM Program is committed to achieving decarbonization for resiliency and for providing clean energy at the local or distribution level, from remote communities to underserved communities, and large industrial and military facilities. The NZM Planning and Design Platform is a core tool to be developed as an early deliverable of the NZM Program because only a fully integrated microgrid-design approach will ensure maximum carbon reduction in energy production.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Improved ELMv1-ECA simulations of zero-curtain periods and cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions at Alaskan Arctic tundra sites

Field measurements have shown that cold-season methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions contribute a substantial portion to the annual net carbon emissions in permafrost regions. However, most earth system land models do not accurately reproduce cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions, especially over the shoulder (i.e., thawing and freezing) seasons. Here we use the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model version 1 (ELMv1-ECA) to tackle this challenge and fill the knowledge gap of how cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions contribute to the annual totals at Alaska Arctic tundra sites. Specifically, we improved the ELMv1-ECA soil water phase-change scheme, environmental controls on microbial activity, and the methane module. Results demonstrate that both soil temperature and the duration of zero-curtain periods (i.e., the fall period when soil temperatures linger around 0°C) simulated by the updated ELMv1-ECA were greatly improved; e.g., the mean absolute error (MAE) in zero-curtain durations at 12 cm depth was reduced by 62 % on average. Furthermore, the MAEs of simulated cold-season carbon emissions at three tundra sites were improved by 72 % and 70 % on average for CH 4 and CO 2 , respectively. Overall, CH 4 emitted during the early cold season (September and October), which often includes most of the zero-curtain period in Arctic tundra, accounted for more than 50 % of the total emissions throughout the entire cold season (September to May) in the model, compared with around 49.4 % (43 %–58 %) in observations. From 1950 to 2017, both CO 2 emissions during the zero-curtain period and during the entire cold season showed increasing trends, for example, of 0.17 and 0.36 gC m -2 yr -1 at Atqasuk. This study highlights the importance of zero-curtain periods in facilitating cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from tundra ecosystems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Path to Zero Energy Ready Home Construction

This paper will be presented at the 5th Residential Building Design & Construction Conference in State College, Pennsylvania. While the number of zero energy homes constructed in the U.S. has grown dramatically, increasing nearly 400% since 2015, zero energy homes still accounted for less than 1% of all U.S. homes constructed as of December 2018. Concerns about high costs or implementation challenges have kept many builders from attempting zero energy home construction. However, builders participating in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Zero Energy Ready Home Program are showing that zero energy ready home construction can be achieved simply and cost effectively with off-the-shelf equipment and materials and common construction techniques. Construction methods used by builders in the DOE program are compared with those used in just-to-code new homes and existing homes for several key components, including wall assemblies and HVAC systems. Examples of cost-effective assemblies used in the Mid Atlantic states are provided.

U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Pr↗

Investigating Net-Zero Carbon Microgrids for DOE’s National Laboratory Facilities: A Case Study for Idaho National Laboratory

The concept of net-zero carbon microgrids (NZMs) has received significant interest in recent years considering its promises to provide both energy resilience and carbon reduction. This paper investigates the practical constraints of NZM deployment in a government facility, exploring various cases revolving around the objectives of cost, emission, and energy resilience. The technoeconomic results for one of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) facilities are discussed to identify a practical and economic approach to achieve the net-zero target considering both present and future scenarios. The study shows the carbon reduction, resilience, and economic success of net-zero initiatives are tied directly to the energy portfolio of its electricity provider. The NZMs typically required a hybrid mix of renewable generation and storage assets to maximize onsite clean generation and to provide reliable power during grid outages. Besides supporting the ongoing net-zero effort at INL, this work also provides a framework that can be directly used in other facilities aspiring to become a net zero in the future.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Future of Zero Energy Buildings: Produce, Respond, Regenerate: Preprint

The zero energy buildings concept is more than 20 years old, and the paradigm shift from buildings as energy consumers to buildings as energy producers is underway. Buildings also consume land and material resources, however, with attendant environmental impacts. Another paradigm is emerging: a built environment that produces energy and is environmentally responsive and regenerative. This paper investigates an updated framework for thinking about zero energy buildings that includes discussions of prioritizing renewables; determining on-site versus off-site generation; exploring how and when buildings should use energy; and balancing renewables, storage, and energy efficiency. Buildings are typically connected to the utility grid and the utility grid develops largely in response to the built environment. If more buildings’ real time electricity use aligned with renewable generation, more renewables would be added to the grid. Ultimately, the goal for zero energy buildings will be to use 100% renewables, 100% of the time, matching loads with energy storage and renewable generation at each discrete timestep over a year. This target is beyond the current zero energy definitions, which focus on an annual balance of renewable supply and energy demand and use the grid to “store” excess production to make up for hours without sufficient on-site renewable generation. This paper expands this upgraded concept and outlines simple metrics to evaluate the alignment of renewable sources and storage with building loads. This process can provide insights on building design considerations, including the use of flexible loads and optimal resource management.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Mott insulators with boundary zeros

The topological classification of electronic band structures is based on symmetry properties of Bloch eigenstates of single-particle Hamiltonians. In parallel, topological field theory has opened the doors to the formulation and characterization of non-trivial phases of matter driven by strong electron-electron interaction. Even though important examples of topological Mott insulators have been constructed, the relevance of the underlying non-interacting band topology to the physics of the Mott phase has remained unexplored. Here, we show that the momentum structure of the Green’s function zeros defining the “Luttinger surface" provides a topological characterization of the Mott phase related, in the simplest description, to the one of the single-particle electronic dispersion. Considerations on the zeros lead to the prediction of new phenomena: a topological Mott insulator with an inverted gap for the bulk zeros must possess gapless zeros at the boundary, which behave as a form of “topological antimatter” annihilating conventional edge states. Placing band and Mott topological insulators in contact produces distinctive observable signatures at the interface, revealing the otherwise spectroscopically elusive Green’s function zeros.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Slowly decaying zero mode in a weakly nonintegrable boundary impurity model

The transverse field Ising model (TFIM) on the half-infinite chain possesses an edge zero mode. This work considers an impurity model: TFIM perturbed by a boundary integrability-breaking interaction. For sufficiently large transverse field, but in the ordered phase of the TFIM, the zero mode is observed to decay. The decay is qualitatively different from zero modes where the integrability-breaking interactions are nonzero all along the chain. It is shown that for the impurity model, the zero mode decays by relaxing to a nonlocal quasiconserved operator, the latter being exactly conserved when the opposite edge of the chain has no noncommuting perturbations so as to ensure perfect degeneracy of the spectrum. In the thermodynamic limit, the quasiconserved operator vanishes, and a regime is identified where the decay of the zero mode obeys Fermi's golden rule. Furthermore, a toy model for the decay is constructed in Krylov space and it is highlighted how Fermi's golden rule may be recovered from this toy model.

1-dimensional systems↗

Propagator Zeros and Lattice Chiral Gauge Theories

Symmetric mass generation (SMG) has been advocated as a mechanism to render mirror fermions massive without symmetry breaking, ultimately aiming for the construction of lattice chiral gauge theories. It has been argued that in an SMG phase, the poles in the mirror fermion propagators are replaced by zeros. Using an effective Lagrangian approach, we investigate the role of propagator zeros when the gauge field is turned on, finding that they act as coupled ghost states. In four dimensions, a propagator zero makes an opposite-sign contribution to the one-loop beta function as compared to a normal fermion. In two dimensional Abelian theories, a propagator zero makes a negative contribution to the photon mass squared. In addition, propagator zeros generate the same anomaly as propagator poles. Thus, gauge invariance will always be maintained in an SMG phase, in fact, even if the target chiral gauge theory is anomalous, but unitarity of the gauge theory is lost. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

On the Effectiveness of Neural Operators at Zero-Shot Weather Downscaling [SWR-25-20]

Code repository for the experiments performed in the paper: On the Effectiveness of Neural Operators at Zero-Shot Weather Downscaling (https://doi.org/10.1017/eds.2025.11) Overall, our work investigates the zero-shot downscaling potential of neural operators. To summarize, our contributions are: 1. We provide a comparative analysis based on two challenging weather downscaling problems, between various neural operator and non-neural-operator methods with large upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) and fine grid resolutions (e.g., 2 km × 2 km wind speed). 2. We examine whether neural operator layers provide unique advantages when testing downscaling models on upsampling factors higher than those seen during training, i.e., zero-shot downscaling. Our results instead show the surprising success of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with a parameter-free interpolation step at zero-shot weather downscaling. 3. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms all neural operator models in terms of average error metrics, whereas an enhanced super-resolution generative adversarial network (ESRGAN)-based approach is better than most models in capturing the physics of the system, and suggests their use in future work as strong baselines. However, these approaches still do not capture variations at smaller spatial scales well, including the physical characteristics of turbulence in the HR data. This suggests a potential for improvement in transformer or GAN-based methods and neural-operator-based methods for zero-shot weather downscaling.

Sinha, Saumya [National Renewable Energy Laborator↗