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DOE OSTI2013

Fundamental Drivers of the Cost and Price of Operating Reserves

Operating reserves impose a cost on the electric power system by forcing system operators to keep partially loaded spinning generators available for responding to system contingencies variable demand. In many regions of the United States, thermal power plants provide a large fraction of the operating reserve requirement. Alternative sources of operating reserves, such as demand response and energy storage, may provide more efficient sources of these reserves. However, to estimate the potential value of these services, the cost of reserve services under various grid conditions must first be established. This analysis used a commercial grid simulation tool to evaluate the cost and price of several operating reserve services, including spinning contingency reserves and upward regulation reserves. These reserve products were evaluated in a utility system in the western United States, considering different system flexibilities, renewable energy penetration, and other sensitivities. The analysis demonstrates that the price of operating reserves depend highly on many assumptions regarding the operational flexibility of the generation fleet, including ramp rates and the fraction of fleet available to provide reserves.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

EVI-EnSitePy (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Energy Estimation and Site Optimization Tool in Python) [EVI-X Modeling Suite] [SWR-25-07]

EVI-EnSitePy is a comprehensive agent-based tool designed for the analysis and design of high-power charging sites, encompassing a wide array of site agents including Electric Vehicles (EVs), chargers, energy storage units (ESS), renewable energy resources (DER), and loads. This versatile tool offers diverse functionalities and a modular modeling approach, allowing detailed configuration of agents based on power ratings, port numbers, energy capacities, demand requirements, charger interfaces, and flexibility to customize the tool for project specific goals. By simulating agent interactions and employing various metrics, EVI-EnSitePy enables the assessment of site performance, exploration of energy management systems (EMS), and implementation of innovative EV charging policies. Utilizing EV charge schedules and arrival states, the tool performs thorough charging site simulations, with outputs consisting of agent and site-level power profiles and statistical metrics. Employing a tree graph structure, EVI-EnSitePy supports nested site structures and power distribution modeling. The tool's ability to generate charging schedules deterministically or via stochastic analysis further enhances its versatility. Through its features and capabilities, EVI-EnSitePy offers a powerful platform for informed decision-making in the realm of high-power charging site design and operation.

Jackson, Derek [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

NASA NTRS2016

Coupled Inertial Navigation and Flush Air Data Sensing Algorithm for Atmosphere Estimation

This paper describes an algorithm for atmospheric state estimation based on a coupling between inertial navigation and flush air data-sensing pressure measurements. The navigation state is used in the atmospheric estimation algorithm along with the pressure measurements and a model of the surface pressure distribution to estimate the atmosphere using a nonlinear weighted least-squares algorithm. The approach uses a high-fidelity model of atmosphere stored in table-lookup form, along with simplified models propagated along the trajectory within the algorithm to aid the solution. Thus, the method is a reduced-order Kalman filter in which the inertial states are taken from the navigation solution and atmospheric states are estimated in the filter. The algorithm is applied to data from the Mars Science Laboratory entry, descent, and landing from August 2012. Reasonable estimates of the atmosphere are produced by the algorithm. The observability of winds along the trajectory are examined using an index based on the observability Gramian and the pressure measurement sensitivity matrix. The results indicate that bank reversals are responsible for adding information content. The algorithm is applied to the design of the pressure measurement system for the Mars 2020 mission. A linear covariance analysis is performed to assess estimator performance. The results indicate that the new estimator produces more precise estimates of atmospheric states than existing algorithms.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Characteristics of ionospheric convection and field-aligned current in the dayside cusp region

The assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) technique has been used to estimate global distributions of high-latitude ionospheric convection and field-aligned current by combining data obtained nearly simultaneously both from ground and from space. Therefore, unlike the statistical patterns, the 'snapshot' distributions derived by AMIE allow us to examine in more detail the distinctions between field-aligned current systems associated with separate magnetospheric processes, especially in the dayside cusp region. By comparing the field-aligned current and ionospheric convection patterns with the corresponding spectrograms of precipitating particles, the following signatures have been identified: (1) For the three cases studied, which all had an IMF with negative y and z components, the cusp precipitation was encountered by the DMSP satellites in the postnoon sector in the northern hemisphere and in the prenoon sector in the southern hemisphere. The equatorward part of the cusp in both hemispheres is in the sunward flow region and marks the beginning of the flow rotation from sunward to antisunward. (2) The pair of field-aligned currents near local noon, i.e., the cusp/mantle currents, are coincident with the cusp or mantle particle precipitation. In distinction, the field-aligned currents on the dawnside and duskside, i.e., the normal region 1 currents, are usually associated with the plasma sheet particle precipitation. Thus the cusp/mantle currents are generated on open field lines and the region 1 currents mainly on closed field lines. (3) Topologically, the cusp/mantle currents appear as an expansion of the region 1 currents from the dawnside and duskside and they overlap near local noon. When B(sub y) is negative, in the northern hemisphere the downward field-aligned current is located poleward of the upward current; whereas in the southern hemisphere the upward current is located poleward of the downward current. (4) Under the assumption of quasi-steady state reconnection, the location of the separatrix in the ionosphere is estimated and the reconnection velocity is calculated to be between 400 and 550 m/s. The dayside separatrix lies equatorward of the dayside convection throat in the two cases examined.

Lu, G.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Fundamental Drivers of the Cost and Price of Operating Reserves

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Dissection of the angle of single fluorophore attached to the nucleotide in corkscrewing microtubules

Direct dissection of the angles of single fluorophores under an optical microscope has been a challenging approach to study the dynamics of proteins in an aqueous solution. For angle quantifications of single substrates, however, there was only one report (Nishizaka et al., 2014) because of difficulties of construction of experimental systems with active proteins working at the single-molecule level. We here show precise estimation of orientation of single fluorescent nucleotides bound to single tubulins that comprise microtubule. When single-headed kinesins immobilized on a glass surface drive the sliding of microtubules, microtubules show corkscrewing with regular pitches (Yajima et al., 2005 & 2008). We found, by using a three-dimensional tracking microscope, that S8A mutant kinesin also showed precise corkscrewing with a 330-nm pitch, which is 13% longer than that of the wild type. The assay with the mutant was combined with a defocused imaging technique to visualize the rotational behavior of fluorescent nucleotide bound to corkscrewing microtubule. Notably, the defocused pattern of single TAMRA-GTP periodically changed, precisely correlating to its precession movement. The time course of the change in the fluorophore angle projected to the xy-plane enabled to estimate both the fluorophore orientation against microtubule axis and the precision of angle-determination of analyses system. The orientation showed main distribution with peaks at∼40°, 50° and 60°. To identify their molecular conformations, the rigorous docking simulations were performed using an atomic-level structure modeled by fitting x-ray crystal structures to the cryo-electron microscopy map. Among isomers, 2′-O-EDA-GDP labeled with 5- or 6-TAMRA were mainly specified as possible candidates as a substrate, which suggested the hydrolysis of TAMRA-GTP by tubulins. - Highlights: • The mutant of single-headed kinesin drives the corkscrewing of microtubules with a longer pitch. • Orientation of single fluorescent GTP on rotating microtubule was measured by defocused imaging. • The orientation showed the distribution with peaks at∼40°, 50° and 60° against microtubule axis. • Docking simulation reveals possible molecular conformations and state of nucleotide on tubulin.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Time-varying value of electric energy efficiency

Electric energy efficiency resources save energy and may reduce peak demand. Historically, quantification of energy efficiency benefits has largely focused on the economic value of energy savings during the first year and lifetime of the installed measures. Due in part to the lack of publicly available research on end-use load shapes (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings) and energy savings shapes, consideration of the impact of energy efficiency on peak demand reduction (i.e., capacity savings) has been more limited. End-use load research and the hourly valuation of efficiency savings are used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity and demand response planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service. This study reviews existing literature on the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings, provides examples in four geographically diverse locations of how consideration of the time-varying value of efficiency savings impacts the calculation of power system benefits, and identifies future research needs to enhance the consideration of the time-varying value of energy efficiency in cost-effectiveness screening analysis. Findings from this study include: -The time-varying value of individual energy efficiency measures varies across the locations studied because of the physical and operational characteristics of the individual utility system (e.g., summer or winter peaking, load factor, reserve margin) as well as the time periods during which savings from measures occur. -Across the four locations studied, some of the largest capacity benefits from energy efficiency are derived from the deferral of transmission and distribution system infrastructure upgrades. However, the deferred cost of such upgrades also exhibited the greatest range in value of all the components of avoided costs across the locations studied. -Of the five energy efficiency measures studied, those targeting residential air conditioning in summer-peaking electric systems have the most significant added value when the total time-varying value is considered. -The increased use of rooftop solar systems, storage, and demand response, and the addition of electric vehicles and other major new electricity-consuming end uses are anticipated to significantly alter the load shape of many utility systems in the future. Data used to estimate the impact of energy efficiency measures on electric system peak demands will need to be updated periodically to accurately reflect the value of savings as system load shapes change. -Publicly available components of electric system costs avoided through energy efficiency are not uniform across states and utilities. Inclusion or exclusion of these components and differences in their value affect estimates of the time-varying value of energy efficiency. -Publicly available data on end-use load and energy savings shapes are limited, are concentrated regionally, and should be expanded.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2024 Edition [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.7 million systems installed through year-end 2023, representing close to 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, roof-coverage ratios, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and customer segmentation -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive analysis and a multi-variate regression to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2023.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1991

The Pilot Land Data System (PLDS) at the Ames Research Center manages aircraft data in collaboration with an ecosystem research project

The Pilot Land Data System (PLDS) is a data and information system serving NASA-supported investigators in the land science community. The three nodes of the PLDS, one each at the Ames Research Center (ARC), the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), cooperate in providing consistent information describing the various data holding in the hardware and software (accessible via network and modem) that provide information about and access to PLDS-held data, which is available for distribution. A major new activity of the PLDS node at the Ames Research Center involves the interaction of the PLDS with an active NASA ecosystem science project, the Oregon Transect Ecosystems Research involves the management of, access to, and distribution of the large volume of widely-varying aircraft data collected by OTTER. The OTTER project, is managed by researchers at the Ames Research Center and Oregon State University. Its principal objective is to estimate major fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water of forest ecosystems using an ecosystem process model driven by remote sensing data. Ten researchers at NASA centers and universities are analyzing data for six sites along a temperature-moisture gradient across the western half of central Oregon (called the Oregon Transect). Sensors mounted on six different aircraft have acquired data over the Oregon Transect in support of the OTTER project.

Angelici, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1996

Durability and Damage Tolerance of High Temperature Polymeric Composites

Modern durability and damage tolerance predictions for composite material systems rely on accurate estimates of the local stress and material states for each of the constituents, as well as the manner in which the constituents interact. In this work, an number of approaches to estimating the stress states and interactions are developed. First, an elasticity solution is presented for the problem of a penny-shaped crack in an N-phase composite material system opened by a prescribed normal pressure. The stress state around such a crack is then used to estimate the stress concentrations due to adjacent fiber fractures in composite materials. The resulting stress concentrations are then used to estimate the tensile strength of the composite. The predicted results are compared with experimental values. In addition, a cumulative damage model for fatigue is presented. Modifications to the model are made to include the effects of variable amplitude loading. These modifications are based upon the use of remaining strength as a damage metric and the definition of an equivalent generalized time. The model is initially validated using results from the literature. Also, experimental data from APC-2 laminates and IM7/K3B laminates are used in the model. The use of such data for notched laminates requires the use of an effective hole size, which is calculated based upon strain distribution measurements. Measured remaining strengths after fatigue loading are compared with the predicted values for specimens fatigued at room temperature and 350 F (177 C).

Case, Scott W.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Optical eye tracking system for real-time noninvasive tumor localization in external beam radiotherapy

Purpose: External beam radiotherapy currently represents an important therapeutic strategy for the treatment of intraocular tumors. Accurate target localization and efficient compensation of involuntary eye movements are crucial to avoid deviations in dose distribution with respect to the treatment plan. This paper describes an eye tracking system (ETS) based on noninvasive infrared video imaging. The system was designed for capturing the tridimensional (3D) ocular motion and provides an on-line estimation of intraocular lesions position based on a priori knowledge coming from volumetric imaging. Methods: Eye tracking is performed by localizing cornea and pupil centers on stereo images captured by two calibrated video cameras, exploiting eye reflections produced by infrared illumination. Additionally, torsional eye movements are detected by template matching in the iris region of eye images. This information allows estimating the 3D position and orientation of the eye by means of an eye local reference system. By combining ETS measurements with volumetric imaging for treatment planning [computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR)], one is able to map the position of the lesion to be treated in local eye coordinates, thus enabling real-time tumor referencing during treatment setup and irradiation. Experimental tests on an eye phantom and seven healthy subjects were performed to assess ETS tracking accuracy. Results: Measurements on phantom showed an overall median accuracy within 0.16 mm and 0.40° for translations and rotations, respectively. Torsional movements were affected by 0.28° median uncertainty. On healthy subjects, the gaze direction error ranged between 0.19° and 0.82° at a median working distance of 29 cm. The median processing time of the eye tracking algorithm was 18.60 ms, thus allowing eye monitoring up to 50 Hz. Conclusions: A noninvasive ETS prototype was designed to perform real-time target localization and eye movement monitoring during ocular radiotherapy treatments. The device aims at improving state-of-the-art invasive procedures based on surgical implantation of radiopaque clips and repeated acquisition of X-ray images, with expected positive effects on treatment quality and patient outcome.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Piecewise Local Partial Least Squares (PLS) Method for the Quantitative Analysis of Plutonium Nitrate Solutions

We have developed a piecewise local (PL) partial least squares (PLS) analysis method for total plutonium measurements by absorption spectroscopy in nitric acid-based nuclear material processing streams. Instead of using a single PLS model that covers all expected solution conditions, the method selects one of several local models based on an assessment of solution absorbance, acidity, and Pu oxidation state distribution. The local models match the global model for accuracy against the calibration set, but were observed in several instances to be more robust to variations associated with measurements in the process. The improvements are attributed to the relative parsimony of the local models. Not all of the sources of spectral variation are uniformly present at each part of the calibration range. Thus, the global model is locally overfitting and susceptible to increased variance when presented with new samples. A second set of models quantifies the relative concentrations of Pu(III), (IV), and (VI). Standards containing a mixture of these species were not at equilibrium due to a disproportionation reaction. Therefore, a separate principal component analysis is used to estimate of the concentrations of the individual oxidation states in these standards in the absence of independent confirmatory analysis. The PL analysis approach is generalizable to other systems where the analysis of chemically complicated systems can be aided by rational division of the overall range of solution conditions into simpler sub-regions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2014

LOW-COST LED LUMINAIRE FOR GENERAL ILLUMINATION

During this two-year Solid-State Lighting (SSL) Manufacturing R&D project Cree developed novel light emitting diode (LED) technologies contributing to a cost-optimized, efficient LED troffer luminaire platform emitting at ~3500K correlated color temperature (CCT) at a color rendering index (CRI) of >90. To successfully achieve program goals, Cree used a comprehensive approach to address cost reduction of the various optical, thermal and electrical subsystems in the luminaire without impacting performance. These developments built on Cree’s high- brightness, low-cost LED platforms to design a novel LED component architecture that will enable low-cost troffer luminaire designs with high total system efficacy. The project scope included cost reductions to nearly all major troffer subsystems as well as assembly costs. For example, no thermal management components were included in the troffer, owing to the optimized distribution of compact low- to mid-power LEDs. It is estimated that a significant manufacturing cost savings will result relative to Cree’s conventional troffers at the start of the project. A chief project accomplishment was the successful development of a new compact, high-efficacy LED component geometry with a broad far-field intensity distribution and even color point vs. emission angle. After further optimization and testing for production, the Cree XQ series of LEDs resulted. XQ LEDs are currently utilized in Cree’s AR series troffers, and they are being considered for use in other platforms. The XQ lens geometry influenced the independent development of Cree’s XB-E and XB-G high-voltage LEDs, which also have a broad intensity distribution at high efficacy, and are finding wide implementation in Cree’s omnidirectional A-lamps.

Lowes, Ted↗

NASA NTRS2025

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As Lunar missions increase in complexity, inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) capability to support the upcoming Lunar users. The navigation service should also be compatible with the smaller platforms, like CubeSats, being sent by the public and private sectors. A non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation can provide PNT services on-demand using the non-dedicated swarm assets. Swarm members cooperatively and autonomously localize themselves with minimal interaction from Earth, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. The autonomous localization of Lunar constellations utilizes neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements in a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) system to minimize operating costs. Because the decentralized Lunar PNT system relies on relay communication amongst the agents, network failures or loss of assets among ad-hoc Lunar constellations may impact localization performance. This study presents an evaluation of localization performance under increasing levels of network degradation. A simulation of an ad-hoc Lunar PNT swarm is augmented to include system faults and the impacts of intermittent and permanent failures on localization performance are evaluated. We investigate three potential causes of network degradation: single spacecraft loss, multiple spacecraft loss, and antenna failure. The numerical assessments from the simulation show that the LPNT system under study, based on an autonomous decentralized concept of operation, is highly robust and resilient to communication failures. Minor faults, such as single spacecraft loss, solar interference, technical malfunctions, message delays, and antenna outages, have minimal impact on state estimation, with only a 4.47% and 3.75% degradation in median position error for assets and a representative ground user, respectively, compared to an ideal communication scenario. However, major faults, such as hardware failures or meteor strikes leading to the loss of multiple spacecrafts, are more concerning. The permanent loss of three spacecraft results in a more severe performance degradation, with median position error increasing by 23.3% for assets and 11.7% for a representative ground user, despite the Lunar PNT system remaining functional.

Yeji Kim↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving probabilistic infectious disease forecasting through coherence

With an estimated $10.4 billion in medical costs and 31.4 million outpatient visits each year, influenza poses a serious burden of disease in the United States. To provide insights and advance warning into the spread of influenza, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) runs a challenge for forecasting weighted influenza-like illness (wILI) at the national and regional level. Many models produce independent forecasts for each geographical unit, ignoring the constraint that the national wILI is a weighted sum of regional wILI, where the weights correspond to the population size of the region. We propose a novel algorithm that transforms a set of independent forecast distributions to obey this constraint, which we refer to as probabilistically coherent. Enforcing probabilistic coherence led to an increase in forecast skill for 79% of the models we tested over multiple flu seasons, highlighting the importance of respecting the forecasting system’s geographical hierarchy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Dynamical Model for the Zodiacal Cloud and Sporadic Meteors

The solar system is dusty, and would become dustier over time as asteroids collide and comets disintegrate, except that small debris particles in interplanetary space do not last long. They can be ejected from the solar system by Jupiter, thermally destroyed near the Sun, or physically disrupted by collisions. Also, some are swept by the Earth (and other planets), producing meteors. Here we develop a dynamical model for the solar system meteoroids and use it to explain meteor radar observations. We find that the Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) are the main source of the prominent concentrations of meteors arriving to the Earth from the helion and antihelion directions. To match the radiant and orbit distributions, as measured by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) and Advanced Meteor Orbit Radar (AMOR), our model implies that comets, and JFCs in particular, must frequently disintegrate when reaching orbits with low perihelion distance. Also, the collisional lifetimes of millimeter particles may be longer (approx. > 10(exp 5) yr at 1 AU) than postulated in the standard collisional models (approx 10(exp 4) yr at 1 AU), perhaps because these chondrule-sized meteoroids are stronger than thought before. Using observations of the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) to calibrate the model, we find that the total cross section and mass of small meteoroids in the inner solar system are (1.7-3.5) 10(exp 11) sq km and approx. 4 10(exp 19) g, respectively, in a good agreement with previous studies. The mass input required to keep the Zodiacal Cloud (ZC) in a steady state is estimated to be approx. 10(exp 4)-10(exp 5) kg/s. The input is up to approx 10 times larger than found previously, mainly because particles released closer to the Sun have shorter collisional lifetimes, and need to be supplied at a faster rate. The total mass accreted by the Earth in particles between diameters D = 5 micron and 1 cm is found to be approx 15,000 tons/yr (factor of 2 uncertainty), which is a large share of the accretion flux measured by the Long Term Duration Facility (LDEF). Majority of JFC particles plunge into the upper atmosphere at <15 km/s speeds, should survive the atmospheric entry, and can produce micrometeorite falls. This could explain the compositional similarity of samples collected in the Antarctic ice and stratosphere, and those brought from comet Wild 2 by the Stardust spacecraft. Meteor radars such as CMOR and AMOR see only a fraction of the accretion flux (approx 1- 10% and approx 10-50%, respectively), because small particles impacting at low speeds produce ionization levels that are below these radars detection capabilities.

Nesvorny, David↗

DOE OSTI2013

High-Performance Computing for Real-Time Grid Analysis and Operation

Power grids worldwide are undergoing an unprecedented transition as a result of grid evolution meeting information revolution. The grid evolution is largely driven by the desire for green energy. Emerging grid technologies such as renewable generation, smart loads, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and distributed generation provide opportunities to generate energy from green sources and to manage energy use for better system efficiency. With utility companies actively deploying these technologies, a high level of penetration of these new technologies is expected in the next 5-10 years, bringing in a level of intermittency, uncertainties, and complexity that the grid did not see nor design for. On the other hand, the information infrastructure in the power grid is being revolutionized with large-scale deployment of sensors and meters in both the transmission and distribution networks. The future grid will have two-way flows of both electrons and information. The challenge is how to take advantage of the information revolution: pull the large amount of data in, process it in real time, and put information out to manage grid evolution. Without addressing this challenge, the opportunities in grid evolution will remain unfulfilled. This transition poses grand challenges in grid modeling, simulation, and information presentation. The computational complexity of underlying power grid modeling and simulation will significantly increase in the next decade due to an increased model size and a decreased time window allowed to compute model solutions. High-performance computing is essential to enable this transition. The essential technical barrier is to vastly increase the computational speed so operation response time can be reduced from minutes to seconds and sub-seconds. The speed at which key functions such as state estimation and contingency analysis are conducted (typically every 3-5 minutes) needs to be dramatically increased so that the analysis of contingencies is both comprehensive and real time. An even bigger challenge is how to incorporate dynamic information into real-time grid operation. Today’s online grid operation is based on a static grid model and can only provide a static snapshot of current system operation status, while dynamic analysis is conducted offline because of low computational efficiency. The offline analysis uses a worst-case scenario to determine transmission limits, resulting in under-utilization of grid assets. This conservative approach does not necessarily lead to reliability. Many times, actual power grid scenarios are not studied, and they will push the grid over the edge and resulting in outages and blackouts. This chapter addresses the HPC needs in power grid analysis and operations. Example applications such as state estimation and contingency analysis are given to demonstrate the value of HPC in power grid applications. Future research directions are suggested for high performance computing applications in power grids to improve the transparency, efficiency, and reliability of power grids.

Contingency Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2017

Spatial representation of organic carbon and active-layer thickness of high latitude soils in CMIP5 earth system models

Soil properties such as soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and active-layer thickness are used in earth system models (F.SMs) to predict anthropogenic and climatic impacts on soil carbon dynamics, future changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated climate changes in the permafrost regions. Accurate representation of spatial and vertical distribution of these soil properties in ESMs is a prerequisite for redudng existing uncertainty in predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. We compared the spatial representation of SOC stocks and active-layer thicknesses predicted by the coupled Modellntercomparison Project Phase 5 { CMIP5) ESMs with those predicted from geospatial predictions, based on observation data for the state of Alaska, USA. For the geospatial modeling. we used soil profile observations {585 for SOC stocks and 153 for active-layer thickness) and environmental variables (climate, topography, land cover, and surficial geology types) and generated fine-resolution (50-m spatial resolution) predictions of SOC stocks (to 1-m depth) and active-layer thickness across Alaska. We found large inter-quartile range (2.5-5.5 m) in predicted active-layer thickness of CMIP5 modeled results and small inter-quartile range (11.5-22 kg m-2) in predicted SOC stocks. The spatial coefficient of variability of active-layer thickness and SOC stocks were lower in CMIP5 predictions compared to our geospatial estimates when gridded at similar spatial resolutions (24.7 compared to 30% and 29 compared to 38%, respectively). However, prediction errors. when calculated for independent validation sites, were several times larger in ESM predictions compared to geospatial predictions. Primaly factors leading to observed differences were ( 1) lack of spatial heterogeneity in ESM predictions, (2) differences in assumptions concerning environmental controls, and (3) the absence of pedogenic processes in ESM model structures. Our results suggest that efforts to incorporate these factors in F.SMs should reduce current uncertainties associated with ESM predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks.

Active-layer thickness↗