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NASA NTRS2008

The Bess Investigation of the Origin of Cosmic-ray Antiprotons and Search for Cosmological Antimatter

The Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting Spectrometer (BESS) collaboration has made precise measurements of the spectra of cosmic ray antiprotons and light nuclei and conducted a sensitive search for antinuclei. Ten BESS high-latitude flights, eight from Canada and two from Antarctica, span more than a Solar cycle between 1993 and 2007/2008. BESS measurements of low-energy antiprotons constrain candidate models for dark matter including the possible signature of primordial black hole evaporation. The stringent BESS measurements of antiprotons and the elemental and isotopic spectra of H and He provide strong constraints on models of cosmic-ray transport in the Galaxy and Solar System. BESS has also reported the first antideuterium upper limit. BESS employs a superconducting magnetic-rigity spectrometer with time-of-flight and aerogel Cherenkov detectors to identify incident particles by charge, charge sign, mass, and energy. The BESS-Polar long-duration instrument has reduced lower energy limit of 100 MeV (top of the atmosphere) to increase its sensitivity to possible primary antiproton sources. BESS-Polar II was rebuilt with extended magnet lifetime, improved detector and electronic performance, and greater data storage capacity. It was flown fro Antarctica December 2007-January 2008, recording about 4.6 bission events during 24.5 days at float altitude with the magnet on. During the flight the influence of a high-speed stream in the Solar wind was observed. Details of the BESS-Polar II instrument and flight performance are reported elsewhere at this conference. The successful BESS-Polar II flight at Solar minimum is especially important. Most cosmic-ray antiprotons are secondary products of nuclear interactions of primary cosmic-ray nuclei with the interstellar gas, giving a spectrum that peaks at about 2 GeV and falls rapidly to higher and lower energies. However, BESS data taken in the previous Solar minimum show a small excess over secondary expectations at low energies, possibly suggesting the presence of an additional component that may be masked at higher levels of Solar modulation. The high-statistics Solar minimum data obtained by BESS-Polar II will provide a difinitive test of this component. We will review the BESS program and report the latest results including the antiproton and proton spectra measured in the BESS-Polar I flight, the search for cosmic antinuclei, and the status of the BESS-Polar II analysis.

Mitchell, John↗

DOE OSTI2022

PARETO 0.5.0 Release

PARETO 0.5.0 Release. Highlights: Treatment Center Modeling - New case study with desalination, clean brine, and evaporation treatment technologies - New option to reduce disposal capacity due to Seismic Response Areas (SRA) - New option to consider water sharing outside of system General Updates - New features for Sankey Diagram visualization (multiple regions, filtered time periods) - Introduce badges to README.md - Convert documentation to ASCII LaTeX - Code cleaning and maintenance - Correct strategic model documentation typo - Update and format treatment demo input spreadsheet Bug Fixes - Fix water quality operational model results printing bug - Piping and trucking variables are now built only over defined arcs instead of all possible connections - Revise pipeline expansion cost constraints, ensure that all pipelines built incur cost

PARETO,PARETO-UI,PSE,Process Systems Engineering,P↗

DOE OSTI2013

Evaporation-driven instability of the precorneal tear film

Tear-film instability is widely believed to be a signature of eye health. When an interblink is prolonged, randomly distributed ruptures occur in the tear film. "Black spots" and/or "black streaks" appear in 15 to 40 s for normal individuals. For people who suffer from dry eye, tear-film breakup time (BUT) is typically less than a few seconds. To date, however, there is no satisfactory quantitative explanation for the origin of tear rupture. It was proposed recently that tear-film breakup is related to locally high evaporative thinning. A spatial variation in the thickness of the tear-film lipid layer (TFLL) may lead to locally elevated evaporation and subsequent tear-film breakup. We examine the local-evaporation-driven tear-film-rupture hypothesis in a one-dimensional (1-D) model for the evolution of a thin aqueous tear film overriding the cornea subject to locally elevated evaporation at its anterior surface and osmotic water influx at its posterior surface. Evaporation rate depends on mass transfer both through the coating lipid layer and through ambient air. We establish that evaporation-driven tear-film breakup can occur under normal conditions but only for higher aqueous evaporation rates. Predicted roles of environmental conditions, such as wind speed and relative humidity, on tear-film stability agree with clinical observations. More importantly, locally elevated evaporation leads to hyperosmolar spots in the tear film and, hence, vulnerability to epithelial irritation. In addition to evaporation rate, tear-film instability depends on the strength of healing flow from the neighboring region outside the breakup region, which is determined by the surface tension at the tear-film surface and by the repulsive thin-film disjoining pressure. This study provides a physically consistent and quantitative explanation for the formation of black streaks and spots in the human tear film during an interblink.

dry eye↗

DOE OSTI2018

A conceptual geochemical model of the geothermal system at Surprise Valley, CA

Characterizing the geothermal system at Surprise Valley (SV), northeastern California, is important for determining the sustainability of the energy resource, and mitigating hazards associated with hydrothermal eruptions that last occurred in 1951. Previous geochemical studies of the area attempted to reconcile different hot spring compositions on the western and eastern sides of the valley using scenarios of dilution, equilibration at low temperatures, surface evaporation, and differences in rock type along flow paths. These models were primarily supported using classical geothermometry methods, and generally assumed that fluids in the Lake City mud volcano area on the western side of the valley best reflect the composition of a deep geothermal fluid. In this contribution, we address controls on hot spring compositions using a different suite of geochemical tools, including optimized multicomponent geochemistry (GeoT) models, hot spring fluid major and trace element measurements, mineralogical observations, and stable isotope measurements of hot spring fluids and precipitated carbonates. We synthesize the results into a conceptual geochemical model of the Surprise Valley geothermal system, and show that high-temperature (quartz, Na/K, Na/K/Ca) classical geothermometers fail to predict maximum subsurface temperatures because fluids re-equilibrated at progressively lower temperatures during outflow, including in the Lake City area. We propose a model where hot spring fluids originate as a mixture between a deep thermal brine and modern meteoric fluids, with a seasonally variable mixing ratio. The deep brine has deuterium values at least 3 to 4‰ lighter than any known groundwater or high-elevation snow previously measured in and adjacent to SV, suggesting it was recharged during the Pleistocene when meteoric fluids had lower deuterium values. The deuterium values and compositional characteristics of the deep brine have only been identified in thermal springs and groundwater samples collected in proximity to structures that transmit thermal fluids, suggesting the brine may be thermal in nature. On the western side of the valley at the Lake City mud volcano, the deep brine-meteoric water mixture subsequently boils in the shallow subsurface, precipitates calcite, and re-equilibrates at about 130 °C. On the eastern side of the valley, meteoric fluid mixes to a greater extent with the deep brine, cools conductively without boiling, and the composition is modified as dissolved elements are sequestered by secondary minerals that form along the cooling and outflow path at temperatures <130 °C. Re-equilibration of geothermal fluids at lower temperatures during outflow explains why subsurface temperature estimates based on classical geothermometry methods are highly variable, and fail to agree with temperature estimates based on dissolved sulfate-oxygen isotopes and results of classical and multicomponent geothermometry applied to reconstructed deep well fluids. Furthermore, the proposed model is compatible with the idea suggested by others that thermal fluids on the western and eastern side of the valley have a common source, and supports the hypothesis that low temperature re-equilibration during west to east flow is the major control on hot spring fluid compositions, rather than dilution, evaporation, or differences in rock type.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of lithium vapor box divertor evaporator location on NSTX-U using SOLPS-ITER

Commercial fusion reactors will be faced with extremely high divertor target heat fluxes that will require mitigation. Simulations of detachment in an NSTX-U scenario projected to have 92 MW/m 2 unmitigated peak target heat flux are presented, which reaches sub-10 MW/m 2 target heat flux using a highly dissipating lithium vapor box divertor design. The lithium vapor box is a detached divertor design which employs lithium vapor evaporation and condensation to contain lithium below the X-point. Previous SOLPS modeling has indicated a lithium vapor box can reduce the heat flux down to 10 MW/m 2 via simultaneous evaporation from the Private Flux Region (PFR) and the Common Flux Region (CFR) sides of the vapor box. It is found here that PFR evaporation has improved access to the separatrix leading to significantly more efficient power dissipation than CFR evaporation. Simulations of target evaporation with an evaporation distribution that is self-consistent with the temperature of a Capillary Porous System with Fast flowing liquid lithium (CPSF) could reach n Li / n e ~ 0.025-0.030 at the Last Closed Flux Surface (LCFS) depending on the liquid metal flow speeds and lithium sputtering yield, while PFR-side evaporation can reach acceptable heat fluxes with n Li / n e ~ 0.038 at the LCFS. However, PFR evaporator performance can be improved if the target is allowed to be hot enough such that it reflects lithium, reaching n Li / n e ~ 0.028 and reducing required lithium evaporation. Ultimately PFR evaporation and target evaporation are found to have similar ability to produce acceptable heat flux solutions with minimal upstream concentration.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2004

O VI Emission from the Interstellar Medium

This project's primary goal was to examine the Local Bubble, a large hot bubble surrounding the solar neighborhood. In order to do this, we observed the 1032 and 1038 A resonance line emission from O VI in the bubble and used the,results to comment on models for the Local Bubble and its embedded clouds. In order to maximize the signal to noise of our spectrum, we combined the awarded guest investigator observation with unpublished FUSE In Orbit Checkout observations. The resulting spectrum was sufficiently good as to enable us to place tight 2 sigma upper limits on the intensities of the 1032 and the 1038 A resonance lines. We also measured or placed upper limits on the other cosmic lines in the bandpass, including C III and C II. These are the first known ultraviolet emission line measurements and/or upper limits for the gas in the Local Bubble (as opposed to gas anywhere along long lines of sight). With the O VI upper limits, we were able to quantitatively evaluate competing theories for the origins of the Local Bubble. The upper limits are well below those expected in the Breitschwerdt model (which proposes that during its its early development, the Local Bubble rapidly expanded beyond its nascent cloud and, as a result, is now vastly underionized). The upper limits on the O VI resonance line doublet intensity and the measurement of the C III intensity, garnered from this project, combined with measurements of the O VI column density, garnered from another project, are so far below the predictions, that they make a good case for eliminating the Breitschwerdt model from the field of possibilities. Thus, instead of being vastly underionized, the Local Bubble is near ionizational equilibrium. In addition, the upper limits challenge the other well-known model for the Local Bubble. In that model, the Local Bubble was blown by a series of supernova explosions and winds and contains a myriad of evaporating clouds. The intensity of the O VI resonance line doublet predicted from models exceeds the observationally determined 2 sigma upper limits. The discrepancy prompts the exciting suggestion that there may be some astrophysics yet to be considered in standard hydrodynamic models. These measurements performed a second useful function. By subtract- ing them from the O VI intensity observed on long sight-lines through the Galactic halo and Local Bubble, we were able to estimate the intensity originating the Galactic halo.

Shelton, Robin L.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Design of a thermosyphon-based thermal valve for controlled high-temperature heat extraction

Conventional concentrated solar power (CSP) is a reliable alternative energy source that uses the sun’s heat to drive a heat engine to produce electrical power. An advantage of CSP is its ability to store thermal energy for use during off-sun hours which is typically done by storing sensible heat in molten salts. Alternatively, thermal energy may be stored as latent heat in a phase-change material (PCM), which stores large quantities of thermal energy in an isothermal process. On-sun, the PCM melts, storing energy. Off-sun, the latent heat is extracted to produce dispatchable electrical power. Here, this paper presents the design of a thermosyphon-based device with sodium working fluid that is able to extract heat from a source as demand requires. A prototype has been designed to transfer 37 kW of thermal energy from a 600°C molten PCM tank to an array of 9% efficient thermoelectric generators (TEGs) to produce 3 kW of usable electrical energy for 5 h. This “thermal valve” design incorporates a funnel to collect condensate and a central shut-off valve to control condensate gravity return to the evaporator. Three circumferential tubes allow vapour transport up to the condenser. Pressure and a thermal resistance models were developed to predict the performance of the thermal valve. The pressure model predicts that the thermal valve will function as designed. The thermal resistance model predicts a 5500× difference in total thermal resistance between “on” and “off” states. The evaporator and condenser walls comprise 96% of the “on” thermal resistance, while the small parasitic heat transfer in the “off” state is primarily (77%) due to radiation losses. Lastly, this simple and effective technology can have a strong impact on the feasibility, scalability, and dispatchability of CSP latent storage. In addition, other industrial and commercial applications can benefit from this thermal valve concept.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A hierarchical gray-box dynamic modeling methodology for direct-expansion cooling systems to support control stability analysis; Méthodologie de modélisation dynamique hiérarchique de type boîte grise pour les systèmes de refroidissement à détente directe afin de soutenir l'analyse de stabilité de la commande

In this paper, a gray-box dynamic modeling approach for direct-expansion cooling systems is presented. The overall approach incorporates a multi-stage training procedure that consists of 1) identification of component sub-models from quasi-steady-state performance data, 2) system model integration with estimation of refrigerant charge and 3) fine tuning of thermal capacitances of the evaporator and condenser to capture the system dynamic responses. Compared to traditional physics-based models, the proposed modeling approach has advantages including reduced engineering efforts in the model development phase, improved computational efficiency and enhanced prediction accuracy. The modeling method was validated using a 3-ton variable-speed heat pump and proved to be capable of accurately predicting the system transient behaviors over a wide range of operating conditions. The established dynamic model was then applied for control stability analysis, with a specific goal of determining a proper control execution time step. The case study results showed that the stable control execution time step could change significantly, from 3 sec to 19 sec, as the operating conditions and control settings vary, and a proper selection of the execution time step is critical to ensure stable and reliable operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1977

The July climate and a comparison of the January and July climates simulated by the GISS general circulation model

Results are presented for a study directed to evaluate the ability of the global general circulation model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in simulating seasonal differences as related to an experiment simulating the July climatology which parallels the January simulation presented by Somerville et al. (1974). The July and January simulations are compared with each other and with climatological data on seasonal changes, mainly for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere. The comparison shows that the model-generated energy cycle, distribution of winds, temperature, humidity and pressure, dynamical transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation and cloud cover are all realistic for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere in July. The model's simulation of seasonal differences is generally quite realistic since the systematic quantitative errors do not affect the simulation of relative changes, to first order. Defects that could seriously bias the model's performance in particular climate experiments are identified and discussed.

Stone, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Numerical analysis of natural convection in liquid droplets by phase change

A numerical analysis is performed on thermocapillary buoyancy convection induced by phase change in a liquid droplet. A finite-difference code is developed using an alternating-direction implicit (ADI) scheme. The intercoupling relation between thermocapillary force, buoyancy force, fluid property, heat transfer, and phase change, along with their effects on the induced flow patterns, are disclosed. The flow is classified into three types: thermocapillary, buoyancy, and combined convection. Among the three mechanisms, the combined convection simulates the experimental observations quite well, and the basic mechanism of the observed convection inside evaporating sessile drops is thus identified. It is disclosed that evaporation initiates unstable convection, while condensation always brings about a stable density distribution which eventually damps out all fluid disturbances. Another numerical model is presented to study the effect of boundary recession due to evaporation, and the 'peeling-off' effect (the removal of the surface layer of fluid by evaporation) is shown to be relevant.

Duh, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Flash Drought Onset and Development Mechanisms Captured With Soil Moisture and Vegetation Data Assimilation

Flash droughts evolve and intensify rapidly under the influence of anomalous atmospheric conditions. In this study, we investigate the role of assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture (SM) and vegetation properties in capturing the evolution and impacts of two flash droughts in the Northern Great Plains. We find that during 2016 drought triggered by anomalously high temperatures and excessive evaporative demands, multivariate data assimilation (DA) of MODIS-derived leaf area index (LAI) and Soil Moisture Active Passive SM within Noah-Multiparameterization model helps capture elevated transpiration at onset. Assimilation of LAI particularly helped model the resulting rapid decline in SM during onset with as high as 10.0% steeper rate of decline compared to the simulation without any assimilation. Modeled-SM anomalies exhibit a 7.5% and 11.7% increase in similarity with Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) data and U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) maps, respectively. In contrast, during 2017 flash drought driven by record-low precipitation during summers, SM assimilation resulted in largest rates of decline in rootzone SM, as large as 48.4% compared to results from no assimilation. Multivariate DA of SM and LAI results in 6.7% and 14.3% higher spatial similarity with ESI and USDM, respectively, and is necessary to model rapid intensification caused by anomalous precipitation deficits. This study elucidates the need to incorporate multiple observational constraints from remote sensing to effectively capture rapid onset rates, intensification, and severity of flash drought following different propagation mechanisms. This is fundamental for drought early detection to provide a wider window of response and implement efficient mitigation strategies.

Shahryar K. Ahmad↗

DOE OSTI2017

High Level Waste in Salt Repositories: Experiments and Simulations of Evaporation in the Underground - 17167

Advances in simulation of coupled heat and mass transfer in granular salt using the Finite Element Heat and Mass Transfer Code (FEHM) is presented in this paper. The modeling focuses on reproducing the results of an in-situ subsurface evaporation experiment beginning during the summer of 2015 carried out in the underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Run-of-mine (granular) salt was placed in a metal pan, and sample mass, as well as ambient temperature and humidity, were measured continuously on a data logger through May 2016. Changes in moisture content of the salt are interpreted from the change in mass, and these data provide insight into evaporation and water retention characteristics from salt in the WIPP underground. To allow simulation of the experimental data, FEHM was modified to include a variable humidity boundary condition. The new humidity boundary condition can adjust streams of inflowing air to reflect fractions of air and water at prescribed temperature and pressure conditions that in turn represent relative humidity. Attributes for the flow such as temperature, air mass fraction, and humidity can be specified for inflowing air. The in-situ experiment provided data for validation of FEHM code development to accurately compute water-vapor pressure lowering due to dissolved salt and capillary pressure for pore water stored granular WIPP salt. Using this new boundary condition capabilities, a numerical representation of the pan experiment was created. The numerical domain is a 2-dimensional square grid of 30 by 30 cm axes. Salt and air properties are assigned based on measured values. A low flow rate of air is specified across the pile of salt to represent drift ventilation airflow. Humidity and temperature of the flowing air are fixed to measured values, and the simulated pile of salt is allowed to take up or release water based only on gradients in humidity and water-vapor pressure. Mass changes of the modeled salt pan were compared to measured mass changes in the bench-scale experiment. Directionality of the modeled changes tracks well with measured values, with good correlation between peak and valley inflection points. This shows that in situations with airflow where the relative humidity boundary can apply, FEHM can produce accurate values if humidity, air flow, and initial conditions are well established. Finally, this work supports phased-field-thermal testing in salt planned for the underground at WIPP that is expected to begin in early 2017. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2016

Ground heat flux: An analytical review of 6 models evaluated at 88 sites and globally

Uncertainty in ground heat flux (G) means that evaluation of the other terms in the surface energy balance (e.g., latent and sensible heat fluxes (LE and H)) remains problematic. Algorithms that calculate LE and H require available energy, the difference between net radiation, R NET , and G. There are a wide range of approaches to model G for large-scale applications, with a subsequent wide range of estimates and accuracies. Here, we provide the largest review of these methods to date (N = 6), evaluating modeled G against measured G from 88 FLUXNET sites. The instantaneous midday variability in G is best captured by models forced with net radiation, while models forced by temperature show the least error at both instantaneous and daily time scales. We produce global decadal data sets of G to illustrate regional and seasonal sensitivities, as well as uncertainty. Global model mean midmorning instantaneous G is highest during September, October, and November at 63.42 (±16.84) Wm -2 , while over December, January, and February G is lowest at 53.86 (±18.09) Wm -2 but shows greater intermodel uncertainty. Results from this work have the potential to improve evapotranspiration estimates and guide appropriate G model selection and development for various land uses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty of Wheat Water Use: Simulated Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2

Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50 of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.

Sensitivity↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Numerical Analysis of The Pool Boiling Process in Flooded Evaporators Using Different Refrigerants

The pool boiling process can be observed in several energy conversion processes including commercial and industrial refrigeration, industrial air-cooling operations, and power generation. The process becomes more involved when pool boiling in a tube bundle is considered. In the current study, a numerical model is developed to predict the key performance parameters of a flooded evaporator while considering a range of working fluids. A kettle reboiler configuration was considered, and a performance model was developed to account for boiling on individual tubes, merging of vapor bubbles, and movement under gravity. A volume of fluid (VOF) model was used to deal with the different phases in the simulation. Various fluids were considered in this study including HFE-7000, HFE-7300, and water. The trajectories of the bubbles were tracked, and the resulting information has been summarized in physical measurable quantities.

Zhang, Mingkan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Determination of the 60 Zn level density from neutron evaporation spectra

Nuclear reactions of interest for astrophysics and applications often rely on statistical model calculations for nuclear reaction rates, particularly for nuclei far from β stability. However, statistical model parameters are often poorly constrained, where experimental constraints are particularly sparse for exotic nuclides. For example, our understanding of the breakout from the NiCu cycle in the astrophysical rp-process is currently limited by uncertainties in the statistical properties of the proton-rich nucleus 60 Zn. We have determined the nuclear level density of 60 Zn using neutron evaporation spectra from 58 Ni( 3 He,n) measured at the Edwards Accelerator Laboratory. We compare our results to a number of theoretical predictions, including phenomenological, microscopic, and shell-model-based approaches. Notably, we find the 60 Zn level density is somewhat lower than expected for excitation energies populated in the 59 Cu(p,γ) 60 Zn reaction under rp-process conditions. This includes a level density plateau from roughly 5 to 6 MeV excitation energy, which is counter to the usual expectation of exponential growth and all theoretical predictions that we explore. Here, a determination of the spin distribution at the relevant excitation energies in 60 Zn is needed to confirm that the Hauser-Feshbach formalism is appropriate for the 59 Cu(p,γ) 60 Zn reaction rate at x-ray burst temperatures

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

NASA NTRS2001

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microstructure in matrix elements

We investigate the simple model of Pennington, Shenker, Stanford and Yang for modeling the density matrix of Hawking radiation, but further include dynamics for EOW branes behind the horizon. This allows interactions that scatter one interior state to another, and also allows EOW loops. At strong coupling, we find that EOW states are no longer random; the ensemble has collapsed, and coupling constants encode the microscopic matrix elements of Hawking radiation. This suggests strong interior dynamics are important for understanding evaporating black holes, without any ensemble average. In this concrete model the density matrix of the radiation deviates from the thermal state, small off-diagonal fluctuations encode equivalences between naively orthogonal states, and bound the entropy from above. For almost evaporated black holes the off-diagonal terms become as large as the diagonal ones, eventually giving a pure state. We also find the unique analytic formula for all Renyi entropies.

2D gravity↗