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Predicted star counts in selected fields and photometric bands Applications to galactic structure, the disk luminosity function, and the detection of a massive halo

Tables are presented of predicted star counts in 17 selected directions on the sky as a function of apparent B, V, R, and I magnitudes and absolute visual magnitudes calculated from the Bahcall-Soneira Galaxy model. It is noted that eight of the fields were selected ab initio for their usefulness in determining from star counts either parameters of galactic structure, the faint end of the disk luminosity function, or the detection of a massive stellar halo. Star counts in specified fields to m sub I = 19 mag are able to reveal the faint end of the disk luminosity function down to the end of the hydrogen-burning main sequence. It is thought that star counts at high galactic latitudes to m sub I = 22 mag should reveal the stellar constituents of a massive halo if they are massive enough to be on the hydrogen-burning main sequence.

Bahcall, J. N.↗

X-ray spectra of clusters of galaxies

The X-ray emission from luminous clusters of galaxies is dominated by thermal bremsstrahlung from an intergalactic medium. The central density of the gas is strongly correlated with the X-ray surface brightness. The X-ray surface brightness S(sigma) of many clusters is well modeled by a law of the form S(sigma) alpha S(o) 1 + R(2)/A(2) to the minus 3 beta + 1/2 power with beta approximately equal to 0.66. However, this model does not fit the X-ray spectral or optical galaxy counts well. In clusters with cooling flows in their center there is a strong correlation between the cooling rates of X-ray emitting material and optical H alpha emission. It is not clear, at present, what percentage of the virial mass of the cluster is in hot gas but if beta = 0.66, it is possible for the values to be of the order of 1/2. Spatially resoled X-ray spectroscopy is necessary to determine this value with any accuracy.

Mushotzky, R. F.↗

The best-fit universe

Inflation provides very strong motivation for a flat Universe, Harrison-Zel'dovich (constant-curvature) perturbations, and cold dark matter. However, there are a number of cosmological observations that conflict with the predictions of the simplest such model: one with zero cosmological constant. They include the age of the Universe, dynamical determinations of Omega, galaxy-number counts, and the apparent abundance of large-scale structure in the Universe. While the discrepancies are not yet serious enough to rule out the simplest and most well motivated model, the current data point to a best-fit model with the following parameters: Omega(sub B) approximately equal to 0.03, Omega(sub CDM) approximately equal to 0.17, Omega(sub Lambda) approximately equal to 0.8, and H(sub 0) approximately equal to 70 km/(sec x Mpc) which improves significantly the concordance with observations. While there is no good reason to expect such a value for the cosmological constant, there is no physical principle that would rule out such.

Turner, Michael S.↗

Parameter Estimation in Astronomy with Poisson-Distributed Data: The (CHI)2(gamma) Statistic - 1

Applying the standard weighted mean formula, [Sigma (sub i)n(sub i)ssigma(sub i, sup -2)], to determine the weighted mean of data, n(sub i), drawn from a Poisson distribution, will, on average, underestimate the true mean by approx. 1 for all true mean values larger than approx.3 when the common assumption is made that the error of the i th observation is sigma(sub i) = max square root of n(sub i), 1).This small, but statistically significant offset, explains the long-known observation that chi-square minimization techniques which use the modified Neyman'chi(sub 2) statistic, chi(sup 2, sub N) equivalent Sigma(sub i)((n(sub i) - y(sub i)(exp 2)) / max(n(sub i), 1), to compare Poisson - distributed data with model values, y(sub i), will typically predict a total number of counts that underestimates the true total by about 1 count per bin. Based on my finding that weighted mean of data drawn from a Poisson distribution can be determined using the formula [Sigma(sub i)[n(sub i) + min(n(sub i), 1)](n(sub i) + 1)(exp -1)] / [Sigma(sub i)(n(sub i) + 1)(exp -1))], I propose that a new chi(sub 2) statistic, chi(sup 2, sub gamma) equivalent, should always be used to analyze Poisson- distributed data in preference to the modified Neyman's chi(exp 2) statistic. I demonstrated the power and usefulness of,chi(sub gamma, sup 2) minimization by using two statistical fitting techniques and five chi(exp 2) statistics to analyze simulated X-ray power - low 15 - channel spectra with large and small counts per bin. I show that chi(sub gamma, sup 2) minimization with the Levenberg - Marquardt or Powell's method can produce excellent results (mean slope errors approx. less than 3%) with spectra having as few as 25 total counts.

Mighell, Kenneth J.↗

HVAC control fine-grained occupancy pattern estimation

A thermal state of a plurality of zones of the building is updated according to a building thermal model and information received from temperature sensors of the building. Predicted occupant counts for an upcoming plurality of time slots for each of the plurality of zones are updated using actual occupancy counts for each of the plurality of zones. A misprediction type distribution for the upcoming plurality of time slots for each of the plurality of zones is updated, the misprediction type distribution indicating misprediction for true negatives, false positives, false negatives, and true positives. A total misprediction cost expectation is updated according to the predicted occupant counts and the misprediction type distribution. HVAC power for each of the plurality of zones is determined to optimize occupant thermal comfort weighted according to the predicted occupant counts while minimizing the total misprediction cost expectation. HVAC operation is controlled per the HVAC power.

Lin, Shan↗

Constraining Cosmology with Simulation-based inference and Optical Galaxy Cluster Abundance

We test the robustness of simulation-based inference (SBI) in the context of cosmological parameter estimation from galaxy cluster counts and masses in simulated optical datasets. We construct ``simulations'' using analytical models for the galaxy cluster halo mass function (HMF) and for the observed richness (number of observed member galaxies) to train and test the SBI method. We compare the SBI parameter posterior samples to those from an MCMC analysis that uses the same analytical models to construct predictions of the observed data vector. The two methods exhibit comparable performance, with reliable constraints derived for the primary cosmological parameters, ($\Omega_m$ and $\sigma_8$), and richness-mass relation parameters. We also perform out-of-domain tests with observables constructed from galaxy cluster-sized halos in the Quijote simulations. Again, the SBI and MCMC results have comparable posteriors, with similar uncertainties and biases. Unsurprisingly, upon evaluating the SBI method on thousands of simulated data vectors that span the parameter space, SBI exhibits worsened posterior calibration metrics in the out-of-domain application. We note that such calibration tests with MCMC is less computationally feasible and highlight the potential use of SBI to stress-test limitations of analytical models, such as in the use for constructing models for inference with MCMC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering

Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

ON THE BARYONIC CONTENTS OF LOW-MASS GALAXIES

The baryonic Tully-Fisher relation is an important observational constraint on cosmological and galactic models. However, it is critical to keep in mind that in observations only stars and molecular and atomic gas are counted, while the contribution of the ionized gas is almost universally missed. The ionized gas is, however, expected to be present in the gaseous disks of dwarf galaxies simply because they are exposed to the cosmic ionizing background and to the stellar radiation that manages to escape from the central regions of the galactic disks into their outer layers. Such an expectation is, indeed, born out both by cosmological numerical simulations and by simple analytical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observations of PKS 2155-304 with the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer

We present a high-accuracy light curve for the BL Lac object PKS 2155-304, observed with the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer. The light curve shows variations of about 10 percent over a 1.3 d observing period. The observed EUV flux is a factor of 1.7 fainter than when PKS 2155-304 was observed by the ROSAT Wide Field Camera (WFC) during the EUV survey. The optical flux during our observations is about a factor of 2 fainter than during the WFC observations, so we conclude that the overall spectral shape is invariant as the flux varies. These observations support the model in which the spectrum from the optical to the X-ray band is given by a synchrotron spectrum. Extrapolating an X-ray power-law spectrum with an energy index of 1.66 into the EUV only slightly overpredicts the observed EUV count rates so that changing any one of several spectral parameters within the uncertainties gives an acceptable model.

Marshall, H. L.↗

Impact of dilution on microbial community structure and functional potential: comparison of numerical simulations and batch culture experiments

A series of microcosm experiments was performed using serial dilutions of a sewage microbial community to inoculate a set of batch cultures in sterile sewage. After inoculation, the dilution-defined communities were allowed to regrow for several days and a number of community attributes were measured in the regrown assemblages. Based upon a set of numerical simulations, community structure was expected to differ along the dilution gradient; the greatest differences in structure were anticipated between the undiluted-low-dilution communities and the communities regrown from the very dilute (more than 10(-4)) inocula. Furthermore, some differences were expected among the lower-dilution treatments (e.g., between undiluted and 10(-1)) depending upon the evenness of the original community. In general, each of the procedures used to examine the experimental community structures separated the communities into at least two, often three, distinct groups. The groupings were consistent with the simulated dilution of a mixture of organisms with a very uneven distribution. Significant differences in community structure were detected with genetic (amplified fragment length polymorphism and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism), physiological (community level physiological profiling), and culture-based (colony morphology on R2A agar) measurements. Along with differences in community structure, differences in community size (acridine orange direct counting), composition (ratio of sewage medium counts to R2A counts, monitoring of each colony morphology across the treatments), and metabolic redundancy (i.e., generalist versus specialist) were also observed, suggesting that the differences in structure and diversity of communities maintained in the same environment can be manifested as differences in community organization and function.

Non-NASA Center↗

Boron-10 ABUNCL Prototype Models And Initial Active Testing

The Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Safeguards and Security (NA-241) is supporting the project Coincidence Counting With Boron-Based Alternative Neutron Detection Technology at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the development of a 3He proportional counter alternative neutron coincidence counter. The goal of this project is to design, build and demonstrate a system based upon 10B-lined proportional tubes in a configuration typical for 3He-based coincidence counter applications. This report provides results from MCNPX model simulations and initial testing of the active mode variation of the Alternative Boron-Based Uranium Neutron Coincidence Collar (ABUNCL) design built by General Electric Reuter-Stokes. Initial experimental testing of the as-delivered passive ABUNCL was previously reported.

coincidence counter↗

Comparing Observed Stellar Kinematics and Surface Densities in a Low-latitude Bulge Field to Galactic Population Synthesis Models

We present an analysis of Galactic bulge stars from Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 observations of the Stanek window (l, b = [0.25, −2.15]) from two epochs approximately two years apart. This data set is adjacent to the provisional Wide-field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) microlensing field. Proper motions are measured for approximately 115,000 stars down to 28th mag in V band and 25th mag in I band, with accuracies of 0.5 mas/yr (20 km/s) at I ≈ 21. A cut on the longitudinal proper motion μl allows us to separate disk and bulge populations and produce bulge-only star counts that are corrected for photometric completeness and efficiency of the proper-motion cut. The kinematic dispersions and surface density in the field are compared to the nearby SWEEPS sight line, finding a marginally larger-than-expected gradient in stellar density. The observed bulge star counts and kinematics are further compared to the Besançon, Galaxia, and GalMod Galactic population synthesis models. We find that most of the models underpredict low-mass bulge stars by ∼33% below the main-sequence turnoff, and upwards of ∼70% at redder J and H wavebands. While considering inaccuracies in the Galactic models, we give implications for the exoplanet yield from the WFIRST microlensing mission.

Sean Kyle Terry↗

A novel semi-structured kinetic model of methanotroph-photoautotroph cocultures for biogas conversion

Through metabolic coupling of methane oxidation and oxygenic photosynthesis, methanotroph-photoautotroph (M-P) cocultures offer a highly promising technology platform for biogas conversion. However, there has not been any quantitative modeling of the coculture growth kinetics. This is mainly due to the inherent difficulty associated with real time characterization of the M-P cocultures and the complex interactions such as the cross-feeding mechanism within the coculture. To address this challenge, we recently developed a novel experimental-computational (E-C) protocol to accurately characterize the M-P coculture in real-time, and validated its accuracy through cell counting. Enabled by the E-C protocol, this work presents the very first kinetic model for M-P cocultures. By explicitly modeling the exchange of in situ produced O 2 /CO 2 within the M-P coculture and coupling the individual biomass growth with mass transfer between the gas and liquid phases, the semi-structured kinetic model accurately predicts the growth dynamics of the M-P coculture under a wide range of growth conditions. The proposed model is validated by a series of wet-lab experiments using Methylomicrobium buryatense 5GB1 - Arthrospira platensis as the model coculture. Although it has been speculated that there may exist other emergent metabolic interactions within the M-P coculture, in addition to the exchange of in situ produced O 2 /CO 2 , there has not been any experimental validation prior to this study. By integrating designed experiments with the semi-structured kinetic model, this study is the first to confirm the existence of the additional emergent metabolic exchanges within the coculture. Furthermore, this study further quantifies the effect of these unknown metabolic interactions on the growth of both species in the model coculture, supporting further research to identify these exchanged metabolites for metabolic engineering.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Detailed modal testing of a solid rocket motor using a portable test system

Modern analytical techniques have expended the ability to evaluate solid rocket motors used in launch vehicles. As more detailed models of solid rocket motors were developed, testing methods were required to verify the models. Experimental modal analysis (modal testing) of space structures and launch vehicles has been a requirement for model validation for many years. However, previous testing of solid rocket motors has not typically involved dynamic modal testing of full scale motors for verification of solid propellant or system assembly properties. Innovative approaches to the testing of solid rocket motors were developed and modal testing of a full scale, two segment Titan 34D Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) was performed to validate detailed computer modeling. Special modifications were made to convert an existing facility into a temporary modal test facility which would accommodate the test article. The assembly of conventional data acquisition equipment into a multiple channel count portable system has made modal testing in the field feasible. Special purpose hydraulic exciters were configured to apply the dynamic driving forces required. All instrumentation and data collection equipment were installed at the test site for the duration of the test program and removed upon completion. Conversion of an existing test facility into a temporary modal test facility, and use of a multiple channel count portable test data acquisition system allowed all test objectives to be met and resulted in validation of the computer model in a minimum time.

Glozman, Vladimir↗

SU-E-J-82: Intra-Fraction Proton Beam-Range Verification with PET Imaging: Feasibility Studies with Monte Carlo Simulations and Statistical Modeling

Purpose: To study the feasibility of intra-fraction proton beam-range verification with PET imaging. Methods: Two phantoms homogeneous cylindrical PMMA phantoms (290 mm axial length, 38 mm and 200 mm diameter respectively) were studied using PET imaging: a small phantom using a mouse-sized PET (61 mm diameter field of view (FOV)) and a larger phantom using a human brain-sized PET (300 mm FOV). Monte Carlo (MC) simulations (MCNPX and GATE) were used to simulate 179.2 MeV proton pencil beams irradiating the two phantoms and be imaged by the two PET systems. A total of 50 simulations were conducted to generate 50 positron activity distributions and correspondingly 50 measured activity-ranges. The accuracy and precision of these activity-ranges were calculated under different conditions (including count statistics and other factors, such as crystal cross-section). Separate from the MC simulations, an activity distribution measured from a simulated PET image was modeled as a noiseless positron activity distribution corrupted by Poisson counting noise. The results from these two approaches were compared to assess the impact of count statistics on the accuracy and precision of activity-range calculations. Results: MC Simulations show that the accuracy and precision of an activity-range are dominated by the number (N) of coincidence events of the reconstructed image. They are improved in a manner that is inversely proportional to 1/sqrt(N), which can be understood from the statistical modeling. MC simulations also indicate that the coincidence events acquired within the first 60 seconds with 10{sup 9} protons (small phantom) and 10{sup 10} protons (large phantom) are sufficient to achieve both sub-millimeter accuracy and precision. Conclusion: Under the current MC simulation conditions, the initial study indicates that the accuracy and precision of beam-range verification are dominated by count statistics, and intra-fraction PET image-based beam-range verification is feasible. This work was supported by a research award RP120326 from Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Boron-10 ABUNCL Models of Fuel Testing

The Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Safeguards and Security (NA-241) is supporting the project Coincidence Counting With Boron-Based Alternative Neutron Detection Technology at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the development of a 3He proportional counter alternative neutron coincidence counter. The goal of this project is to design, build and demonstrate a system based upon 10B-lined proportional tubes in a configuration typical for 3He-based coincidence counter applications. This report provides results from MCNP simulations of the General Electric Reuter-Stokes Alternative Boron-Based Uranium Neutron Coincidence Collar (ABUNCL) active configuration model with fuel pins previously measured at Los Alamos National Laboratory. A comparison of the GE-ABUNCL simulations and simulations of 3He based UNCL-II active counter (the system for which the GE-ABUNCL was targeted to replace) with the same fuel pin assemblies is also provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

SQuaD: Smart Quantum Detection for Photon Recognition and Dark Count Elimination

Quantum detectors of single photons are an essential component for quantum information processing across computing, communication and networking. Today's quantum detection system, which consists of single photon detectors, timing electronics, control and data processing software, is primarily used for counting the number of single photon detection events. However, it is largely incapable of extracting other rich physical characteristics of the detected photons, such as their wavelengths, polarization states, photon numbers, or temporal waveforms. This work, for the first time, demonstrates a smart quantum detection system, SQuaD, which integrates a field programmable gate array (FPGA) with a neural network model, and is designed to recognize the features of photons and to eliminate detector dark-count. The SQuaD is a fully integrated quantum system with high timing-resolution data acquisition, onboard multi-scale data analysis, intelligent feature recognition and extraction, and feedback-driven system control. Our \name experimentally demonstrates 1) reliable photon counting on par with the state-of-the art commercial systems; 2) high-throughput data processing for each individual detection events; 3) efficient dark count recognition and elimination; 4) up to 100% accurate feature recognition of photon wavelength and polarization. Additionally, we deploy the SQuaD to an atomic (erbium ion) photon emitter source to realize noise-free control and readout of a spin qubit in the telecom band, enabling critical advances in quantum networks and distributed quantum information processing.

Linne, Karl C. [U. Chicago (main)] (ORCID:00090009↗