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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Amplification in the Community Earth System Models (CESM1 and CESM2)

We compare the Arctic amplification (AA) produced by the two Community Earth System Models CESM1 and CESM2, members of the CEMIP5 (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5) and CEMIP6 collections, respectively. We find that the CESM1 model reproduces the recent high values of the AA deduced from the observed temperature much better than the CESM2. The correlation coefficient within the 1970–2012 time period between CESM1-simulated AA and the observed one is 0.47, while the CESM2 simulation leads to an anticorrelation of r = –0.53. Even the more successful model (CESM1) is not able to reproduce recent high AA values of 4–5. The main cause of this failure is the model’s overestimate of the rate of increase in the mean global temperature in years post 1990. When the CESM1 model’s simulated trend of the mean global temperature is replaced in the expression for the AA by the observed temperature trend, the correlation coefficient increases from 0.47 to 0.75. The CESM1 model is among the best north American models in AA simulation while the CESM2 model is among the least successful.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Aerosol Impacts on California Winter Clouds and Precipitation during CalWater 2011: Local Pollution versus Long-Range Transported Dust

Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations are carried out for two cloud cases with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on February 16 (FEB16) and March 02 (MAR02) from the CalWater 2011 field campaign. In both cases, observations show the presence of dust and biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust and biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10-20% from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada Mountains for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a ~40% increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present but reduces precipitation by 5-8% if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology including the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet, and cloud dynamics. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental conditions for assessing aerosol effects on cold season precipitation in California.

aerosol impacts↗
DOE OSTI2017

Urbanization-induced urban heat island and aerosol effects on climate extremes in the Yangtze River Delta region of China

Abstract. The WRF-Chem model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is integrated for 5 years at convection-permitting scale to investigate the individual and combined impacts of urbanization-induced changes in land cover and pollutant emissions on regional climate in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in eastern China. Simulations with the urbanization effects reasonably reproduced the observed features of temperature and precipitation in the YRD region. Urbanization over the YRD induces an urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases the surface temperature by 0.53 °C in summer and increases the annual heat wave days at a rate of 3.7 d yr−1 in the major megacities in the YRD, accompanied by intensified heat stress. In winter, the near-surface air temperature increases by approximately 0.7 °C over commercial areas in the cities but decreases in the surrounding areas. Radiative effects of aerosols tend to cool the surface air by reducing net shortwave radiation at the surface. Compared to the more localized UHI effect, aerosol effects on solar radiation and temperature influence a much larger area, especially downwind of the city cluster in the YRD. Results also show that the UHI increases the frequency of extreme summer precipitation by strengthening the convergence and updrafts over urbanized areas in the afternoon, which favor the development of deep convection. In contrast, the radiative forcing of aerosols results in a surface cooling and upper-atmospheric heating, which enhances atmospheric stability and suppresses convection. The combined effects of the UHI and aerosols on precipitation depend on synoptic conditions. Two rainfall events under two typical but different synoptic weather patterns are further analyzed. It is shown that the impact of urban land cover and aerosols on precipitation is not only determined by their influence on local convergence but also modulated by large-scale weather systems. For the case with a strong synoptic forcing associated with stronger winds and larger spatial convergence, the UHI and aerosol effects are relatively weak. When the synoptic forcing is weak, however, the UHI and aerosol effects on local convergence dominate. This suggests that synoptic forcing plays a significant role in modulating the urbanization-induced land-cover and aerosol effects on individual rainfall event. Hence precipitation changes due to urbanization effects may offset each other under different synoptic conditions, resulting in little changes in mean precipitation at longer timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A consistent prescription of stratospheric aerosol for both radiation and chemistry in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

Here we describe an updated parameterization for prescribing stratospheric aerosol in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM1). The need for a new parameterization is motivated by the poor response of the CESM1 (formerly referred to as the Community Climate System Model, version 4, CCSM4) simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to colossal volcanic perturbations to the stratospheric aerosol layer (such as the 1991 Pinatubo eruption or the 1883 Krakatau eruption) in comparison to observations. In particular, the scheme used in the CMIP5 simulations by CESM1 simulated a global mean surface temperature decrease that was inconsistent with the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, and the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office (HADCRUT4). The new parameterization takes advantage of recent improvements in historical stratospheric aerosol databases to allow for variations in both the mass loading and size of the prescribed aerosol. An ensemble of simulations utilizing the old and new schemes shows CESM1's improved response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. Most significantly, the new scheme more accurately simulates the temperature response of the stratosphere due to local aerosol heating. Here, results also indicate that the new scheme decreases the global mean temperature response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption by half of the observed temperature change, and modelled climate variability precludes statements as to the significance of this change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A clustering-based approach to ocean model–data comparison around Antarctica

The Antarctic Continental Shelf seas (ACSS) are a critical, rapidly changing element of the Earth system. Analyses of global-scale general circulation model (GCM) simulations, including those available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6), can help reveal the origins of observed changes and predict the future evolution of the ACSS. However, an evaluation of ACSS hydrography in GCMs is vital: previous CMIP ensembles exhibit substantial mean-state biases (reflecting, for example, misplaced water masses) with a wide inter-model spread. Because the ACSS are also a sparely sampled region, grid-point-based model assessments are of limited value. Our goal is to demonstrate the utility of clustering tools for identifying hydrographic regimes that are common to different source fields (model or data), while allowing for biases in other metrics (e.g., water mass core properties) and shifts in region boundaries. We apply K-means clustering to hydrographic metrics based on the stratification from one GCM (Community Earth System Model version 2; CESM2) and one observation-based product (World Ocean Atlas 2018; WOA), focusing on the Amundsen, Bellingshausen and Ross seas. When applied to WOA temperature and salinity profiles, clustering identifies “primary” and “mixed” regimes that have physically interpretable bases. For example, meltwater-freshened coastal currents in the Amundsen Sea and a region of high-salinity shelf water formation in the southwestern Ross Sea emerge naturally from the algorithm. Both regions also exhibit clearly differentiated inner- and outer-shelf regimes. The same analysis applied to CESM2 demonstrates that, although mean-state model biases in water mass T–S characteristics can be substantial, using a clustering approach highlights that the relative differences between regimes and the locations where each regime dominates are well represented in the model. CESM2 is generally fresher and warmer than WOA and has a limited fresh-water-enriched coastal regimes. Given the sparsity of observations of the ACSS, this technique is a promising tool for the evaluation of a larger model ensemble (e.g., CMIP6) on a circum-Antarctic basis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest both the possibility of significant changes in large-scale aspects of circulation as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high-resolution global simulations at climate timescales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centres and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other model intercomparison projects (MIPs). Increases in high-performance computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enable a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal-resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950–2050, with the possibility of extending to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulations. Lastly, HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions, “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Stimulation at Desert Peak -modeling with the coupled THM code FEHM

Numerical modeling of the 2011 shear stimulation at the Desert Peak well 27-15. This submission contains the FEHM executable code for a 64-bit PC Windows-7 machine, and the input and output files for the results presented in the included paper from ARMA-213 meeting.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling supercritical CO 2 flow and mineralization in reactive host rocks with PFLOTRAN v7.0

Understanding the flow and reactivity of CO 2 injected into geological reservoirs is important for many subsurface applications including secure geologic carbon storage (GCS), critical mineral extraction, enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), and enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Traditionally, subsurface CO 2 injection for GCS applications has focused on geologic formations with favorable subsurface configurations for CO 2 migration and trapping through non-reactive mechanisms such as structural, solubility, and petrophysical trapping. Recently, CO 2 -reactive rocks such as mafic and ultramafic basalts have been investigated for their potential to react with injected CO 2 in situ to simultaneously dissolve host rock minerals and mineralize CO 2 as carbonates. Engineering rapid CO 2 mineralization in the subsurface is attractive because of the increased density of stored CO 2 , the additional safety factors associated with solidification, and the potential to extract valuable critical minerals. Here we present recent developments in the parallel flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to model coupled CO 2 -brine flow and reactive transport for a wide range of injection and production applications involving reactive CO 2 -brine systems. These developments are based on the well established and trusted CO 2 flow capabilities in the STOMP-CO 2 simulator. New capabilities added to PFLOTRAN include new CO 2 -brine equations of state with optional thermal coupling, several new constitutive relationships like capillary pressure smoothing and scanning path hysteresis, a fully implicit well model, and native linkage with PFLOTRAN's well-established reactive transport libraries. A series of benchmarks between PFLOTRAN and STOMP-CO 2 verify the newly developed CO 2 -brine flow capabilities. Demonstrations of coupled CO 2 -brine flow modeling and reactive transport show how CO 2 mineralization can be engineered in reactive host rocks. Finally, an example use case involving copper leaching by CO 2 and critical mineral extraction is presented to showcase the strengths of this new implementation. Several limitations still remain, including limited availability of field data to parameterize models. Future work should constrain the evolution of mineral surface area during mineralization and the temperature and/or pH dependence of geochemical reactions for specific systems of interest.

Critical Minerals↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial Investigation of Coupled Electron-Photon Transport with SCEPTRE and RAPTURE (Rev.1.1)

The SCEPTRE1 code models coupled photon and electron transport in material media using discrete ordinates methods. The code can use different solvers in 1D and 3D in parallel, promising users the ability to run problems that are significant both in physics and computational scale. One capability that is perhaps unique at this time in the NNSA complex is SCEPTRE’s coupled photon– electron transport physics in a discrete ordinates approach. For example, incident x–rays can generate a significant electron population, whose transport can be simulated within the same code. In this context, fully–coupled means that photons can produce electrons and electrons can produce photons; uncoupled or no–coupling means photons do not produce electrons. Partial–coupling, an intermediate option in which photons can produce electrons but electrons do not produce photons, is not considered in the present work. The MCNP code can treat this physics with a Monte Carlo approach. MCNP should be viewed as complementary to SCEPTRE in both computational method (Monte Carlo versus discrete ordinates) as well as data libraries. SCEPTRE and MCNP should provide important checks on each other, especially from complementary modeling frameworks of a S n (discrete ordinates) mesh based method versus Monte Carlo particle based method. In order to learn more about SCEPTRE, and how it might inform engineering work at the Laboratory, we used it to carry out a set of initial studies. This was a series of 1D simulations of photon beams hitting Aluminum slabs. Our studies mainly used SCEPTRE directly, and made little use of the closely associated RAPTURE code (more on this below). The goals of these studies were first, to familiarize ourselves with operating the code, and second, to begin to assess the importance of coupled electron–photon transport. To support these studies, we began to develop a set of scripts to initialize inputs, run tools, process outputs, and plot results. An initial version of these scripts has been committed to the Lightning workflow repository. This memo relates the results of those studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cost-optimal evaluation of centralized and distributed microgrid topologies considering voltage constraints

Optimal design of hybrid renewable mini-grids requires both economic and power quality considerations. Existing modeling approaches address these considerations via separate or loosely coupled models. Here, we extend REopt—a techno-economic optimization model developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory—to consider both within a single model. REopt formulates the design problem as a mixed-integer linear program that solves for a site's optimal technology mix, sizing, and operation to minimize life cycle cost. REopt has traditionally assumed a single node system. In the work presented here, we expand the REopt platform to consider multiple connected nodes with associated voltage constraints. In order to do this, we model power flow using a fixed-point linear approximation method. Additionally, we then use the model to explore design considerations of mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, we evaluate under what combinations of transmission line distance and capacity it is technically viable and economically preferable to build multiple isolated mini-grids versus an interconnected, centralized system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parametric Studies of Heat Pump Water Heater Using Low GWP Refrigerants

A storage heat pump water heater (HPWH) comprises a vapor compression system and a hot water tank. It can lead to more than 70% energy saving, compared with electric resistance heating. HPWH usually uses a wrapped-tank coil as the water heater. The wrapped coil has a strong interaction with the water tank and impose a new challenge for the engineering design and simulation study. Based on the US DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM), i.e., a public-domain, component-based thermal system modelling platform, a segment-to-segment wrapped-tank coil model coupled with a one-dimensional stratified water tank model were developed, which facilitates modeling and design HPWHs having various configurations and components. Additionally, the hardware-based design model was used to evaluate refrigerants having lower global warming potentials to replace R-134a, including R-1234yf, R-1234ze, R-290, R-513A and R-450A, when effects of compressor size, refrigerant charge on 24-hour uniform energy factor (UEF) and first-hour rating (FHR) were investigated.In the drop-in replacements, R-1234ze achieved the best UEF, and R-290 resulted in the lowest UEF. When downsizing the compressor to maximize the UEFs, the UEFs of R-134a, R-290, R1234yf, R-450A and R-513A ascended to the range of 4.4 to 4.53, with R-513A having the highest UEF. The R-1234ze ended up having the lowest UEF of 4.27. Refrigerants having larger volumetric vaporization heat led to higher FHRs if using the fixed-size compressor, that R-290 resulted in the highest FHR.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Roles of irrigation and reservoir operations in modulating terrestrial water and energy budgets in the Indian subcontinental river basins

Water management activities affect the terrestrial water cycle by increasing water supply and hence changing the partitioning of surface water and energy budgets over irrigated agricultural land, as well as modifying streamflow seasonality through reservoir operations (for irrigation, hydropower generation, and other purposes). Indian sub-continental basins are strongly influenced by human activities. However, the dynamics of how anthropogenic activities interact with the terrestrial water cycle have not been sufficiently studied over Indian sub-continental Basins. In this study, we applied a well-evaluated water management model, coupled with a large-scale land surface hydrological model with irrigation and reservoir operation schemes to examine the impacts of irrigation and reservoir operations on terrestrial water budgets over the Indian sub-continental basins. We conducted two simulations: one NATURAL (i.e., no irrigation and no reservoirs) and water management scenario (i.e., with irrigation and with reservoir regulations, referred to as MANAGED) over 18 basins from 1951 to 2012. The water management impacts were evaluated by comparing a number of key water and energy budget terms such as evapotranspiration (ET), total runoff (TR), land surface temperature (LST), reservoir storage, and discharge. Our results show that water management activities have significant (p-value < 0.05) impacts on ET and LST in most of the river basins during the pre-monsoon season (February-May). Comparing to the NATURAL scenario, ET under the MANAGED scenario is significantly increased in most basins during pre- and post-monsoon seasons especially in semi-arid regions, and LST is reduced predominately in the pre-monsoon season when irrigation water demand is high.

Shah, Harsh L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global-Scale Convergence Obscures Inconsistencies in Soil Carbon Change Predicted by Earth System Models

Soil carbon (C) responses to environmental change represent a major source of uncertainty in the global C cycle. Feedbacks between soil C stocks and climate drivers could impact atmospheric CO 2 levels, further altering the climate. Here, we assessed the reliability of Earth system model (ESM) predictions of soil C change using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). ESMs predicted global soil C gains under the high emission scenario, with soils taking up 43.9 Pg (95% CI: 9.2–78.5 Pg) C on average during the 21st century. The variation in global soil C change declined significantly from CMIP5 (with average of 48.4 Pg [95% CI: 2.0–94.9 Pg] C) to CMIP6 models (with average of 39.3 Pg [95% CI: 23.9–54.7 Pg] C). For some models, a small C increase in all biomes contributed to this convergence. For other models, offsetting responses between cold and warm biomes contributed to convergence. Although soil C predictions appeared to converge in CMIP6, the dominant processes driving soil C change at global or biome scales differed among models and in many cases between earlier and later versions of the same model. Random Forest models, for soil carbon dynamics, accounted for more than 63% variation of the global soil C change predicted by CMIP5 ESMs, but only 36% for CMIP6 models. Although most CMIP6 models apparently agree on increased soil C storage during the 21st century, this consensus obscures substantial model disagreement on the mechanisms underlying soil C response, calling into question the reliability of model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

A variational approach for dissipative quantum transport in a wide parameter space

Recent development of theoretical method for dissipative quantum transport has achieved notable progresses in the weak or strong electron-phonon coupling regime. However, a generalized theory for dissipative quantum transport in a wide parameter space had not been established. In this work, a variational polaron theory for dissipative quantum transport in a wide range of electron-phonon coupling is developed. The optimal polaron transformation is determined by the optimization of the Feynman-Bogoliubov upper bound of free energy. The free energy minimization ends up with an optimal mean-field Hamiltonian and a minimal interaction Hamiltonian. Hence, second-order perturbation can be applied to the transformed system, resulting in an accurate and efficient method for the treatment of dissipative quantum transport with different electron-phonon coupling strength. Numerical benchmark calculation on a single site model coupled to one phonon mode is presented.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

The origin of unequal bond lengths in the C 1 B 2 state of SO 2 : Signatures of high-lying potential energy surface crossings in the low-lying vibrational structure

Here the C 1 B 2 state of SO 2 has a double-minimum potential in the antisymmetric stretch coordinate, such that the minimum energy geometry has nonequivalent SO bond lengths. The asymmetry in the potential energy surface is expressed as a staggering in the energy levels of the v' 3 progression. We have recently made the first observation of low-lying levels with odd quanta of v' 3 , which allows us--in the current work--to characterize the origins of the level staggering. Our work demonstrates the usefulness of low-lying vibrational level structure, where the character of the wavefunctions can be relatively easily understood, to extract information about dynamically important potential energy surface crossings that occur at much higher energy. The measured staggering pattern is consistent with a vibronic coupling model for the double-minimum, which involves direct coupling to the bound 2 1 A 1 state and indirect coupling with the repulsive 3 1 A 1 state. The degree of staggering in the v' 3 levels increases with quanta of bending excitation, which is consistent with the approach along the C state potential energy surface to a conical intersection with the 2 1 A 1 surface at a bond angle of ~145°.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Study of Liquid Piston Compression Using Large-Eddy Simulation and Volume-of-Fluid Approach

Efforts to increase the efficiency of residential and commercial air conditioners and heat pumps have demonstrated that the compressor accounts for most of the system’s electrical energy usage. Therefore, the efficiency of this component should be improved to reduce its energy usage. The US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory developed a near-isothermal liquid piston compressor (LPC) that uses propylene glycol (PG) to compress CO2. This report presents numerical studies of the LPC in which the compression chamber fills with injected PG from the bottom inlet. Numerical simulations were performed using the large-eddy simulation (LES) with the wall-adapting local eddy-viscosity (WALE) subgrid-scale model coupled with the multiphase volume-of-fluid (VOF) model to simulate the transient interface between gas and liquid and to capture the heat and mass transfer within the compression chamber. In this effort, effects of boundary conditions applied to the LES-VOF calculations (e.g., no wall, an adiabatic wall, and a wall with a heat flux subscribed) to the overall pressure and temperature of CO2 gas as well as the transient evolution of flow and heat transfer evolution within the compression chamber are investigated and discussed. It was found that the LES calculation with no wall have shown no dynamical flow patterns and the volume-averaged temperature of CO2 increased from 305 to 392.7 K, while LES calculations with a constant wall temperature or a wall heat flux had similar increases of CO2 temperatures. Results of LES simulation using a wall heat flux showed different stages in the compression process and revealed dynamical formation and interaction of CO2 gas layers and circulation flow patterns within the chamber that contribute to the overall heat transfer between the solid wall, gas, and liquid surface in the compressor.

Nguyen, Thien D.↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-R-10: Selecting the Optimal Solution for Multi-Objective Radiomics Model

Purpose: To develop an evidential reasoning approach for selecting the optimal solution from a Pareto solution set obtained by a multi-objective radiomics model for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT. Methods: In the multi-objective radiomics model, both sensitivity and specificity are considered as the objective functions simultaneously. A Pareto solution set with many feasible solutions will be resulted from the multi-objective optimization. In this work, an optimal solution Selection methodology for Multi-Objective radiomics Learning model using the Evidential Reasoning approach (SMOLER) was proposed to select the optimal solution from the Pareto solution set. The proposed SMOLER method used the evidential reasoning approach to calculate the utility of each solution based on pre-set optimal solution selection rules. The solution with the highest utility was chosen as the optimal solution. In SMOLER, an optimal learning model coupled with clonal selection algorithm was used to optimize model parameters. In this study, PET, CT image features and clinical parameters were utilized for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT. Results: Total 126 solution sets were generated by adjusting predictive model parameters. Each Pareto set contains 100 feasible solutions. The solution selected by SMOLER within each Pareto set was compared to the manually selected optimal solution. Five-cross-validation was used to evaluate the optimal solution selection accuracy of SMOLER. The selection accuracies for five folds were 80.00%, 69.23%, 84.00%, 84.00%, 80.00%, respectively. Conclusion: An optimal solution selection methodology for multi-objective radiomics learning model using the evidential reasoning approach (SMOLER) was proposed. Experimental results show that the optimal solution can be found in approximately 80% cases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwestern United States

In 2011, exceptionally low atmospheric moisture content combined with moderately high temperatures to produce a record-high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the southwestern United States (SW). These conditions combined with record-low cold-season precipitation to cause widespread drought and extreme wildfires. Although interannual VPD variability is generally dominated by temperature, high VPD in 2011 was also driven by a lack of atmospheric moisture. The May–July 2011 dewpoint in the SW was 4.5 standard deviations below the long-term mean. Lack of atmospheric moisture was promoted by already very dry soils and amplified by a strong ocean-to-continent sea level pressure gradient and upper-level convergence that drove dry northerly winds and subsidence upwind of and over the SW. Subsidence drove divergence of rapid and dry surface winds over the SW, suppressing southerly moisture imports and removing moisture from already dry soils. Model projections developed for the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggest that by the 2050s warming trends will cause mean warm-season VPD to be comparable to the record-high VPD observed in 2011. CMIP5 projections also suggest increased interannual variability of VPD, independent of trends in background mean levels, as a result of increased variability of dewpoint, temperature, vapor pressure, and saturation vapor pressure. Increased variability in VPD translates to increased probability of 2011-type VPD anomalies, which would be superimposed on ever-greater background VPD levels. Although temperature will continue to be the primary driver of interannual VPD variability, 2011 served as an important reminder that atmospheric moisture content can also drive impactful VPD anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗