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At least 721 records · Page 40

Multifidelity, Multidisciplinary Design Under Uncertainty with Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos

The primary objective of this work is to develop an approach for multifidelity uncertainty quantification and to lay the framework for future design under uncertainty efforts. In this study, multifidelity is used to describe both the fidelity of the modeling of the physical systems, as well as the difference in the uncertainty in each of the models. For computational efficiency, a multifidelity surrogate modeling approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos using the point-collocation technique is developed for the treatment of both multifidelity modeling and multifidelity uncertainty modeling. Two stochastic model problems are used to demonstrate the developed methodologies: a transonic airfoil model and multidisciplinary aircraft analysis model. The results of both showed the multifidelity modeling approach was able to predict the output uncertainty predicted by the high-fidelity model as a significant reduction in computational cost.

West, Thomas K., IV↗

Version 4 of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Algorithm and Data Product

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with a mean latency of ~2.5 days. The underlying L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP radiometer brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially-distributed ensemble Kalman filter. Version 4 of the L4_SM modeling system includes a reduction in the upward recharge of surface soil moisture from below under non-equilibrium conditions, resulting in reduced bias and improved dynamic range of L4_SM surface soil moisture compared to earlier versions. This change and additional technical modifications to the system reduce the mean and standard deviation of the observation-minus-forecast Tb residuals and overall soil moisture analysis increments while maintaining the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture estimates versus independent in situ measurements; the average, bias-adjusted RMSE in Version 4 is 0.039 m(exp 3) m(exp -3) for surface and 0.026 m(exp 3) m(exp -3) for root-zone soil moisture. Moreover, the coverage of assimilated SMAP observations in Version 4 is near-global owing to the use of additional satellite Tb records for algorithm calibration. L4_SM soil moisture uncertainty estimates are biased low (by 0.01-0.02 m(exp 3) m(exp -3)) against actual errors (computed versus in situ measurements). L4_SM runoff estimates, an additional product of the L4_SM algorithm, are biased low (by 35 mm year (exp -1)) against streamflow measurements. Compared to Version 3, bias in Version 4 is reduced by 46% for surface soil moisture uncertainty estimates and by 33% for runoff estimates.

RMSE↗

Modeling Whitecaps on Global Scale

Whitecaps play an important role in the surface-atmosphere interactions across the ocean. They are directly linked to the energy dissipation rate during wave breaking and transfer of heat, momentum, and gas/aerosol exchange from the wind to the sea surface. Although the first models of W were dependent only on wind speeds, a large number of diverse models based on wind and sea state which include wave height, wave age, friction velocity, and stability effects have been proposed since then. However, it is recognized that most of the proposed W models have strong systematic (e.g., zonal bias) and random errors when compared against observations. This is partly due to the differences in environmental conditions, measurement techniques, and geographical locations among these studies. But, some of these biases are linked to the inability of the proposed models to capture the variability in W in certain wind/wave regimes. Despite the knowledge of existing biases, W residual relationships from the models with wind and wave fields remain highly uncertain, with residual trends varying between the published studies. Here, we take advantage of the availability of relatively dense observations of W from WindSat microwave satellite retrievals in combination with the University of Miami wave model which was recently incorporated within the NASA GMAO/GEOS system (GEOS-UMWM). We use Windsat W retrievals to assess and constrain the previously published W models and understand the relationships of residuals from models in different wind/wave regimes. We link these unexplained residual variations to additional factors such as swell index, drag coefficient etc and add information to the existing whitecap models. Since Windsat retrievals cover wide range of environmental conditions, it helps to reduce the uncertainties associated with differences in measurement techniques. Regression of wind-wave fields against all Windsat data points (CTL) results in larger residuals for lower wave age and W is overestimated upto ~4% for wave age < 10 and underestimated by upto ~2% as wave age increases. We attest to this bias by considering two approaches. One is to perform regression separately for different stages of wave development such as developing sea, fully developed, and wind sea regimes thereby understanding the sensitivity of regression coefficients to sea state (EXP1). Another is to derive coefficients of W models in EXP1 as a function of additional wind/wave factors such as swell index, drag coefficient, and mean squared slope, deriving more nonlinear W models (EXP2). EXP2 provides reduction in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 0.1-0.3%. Sea surface drag has a stronger relationship with regression coefficients compared to swell index.These additional factors provide improved parameterizations in different wind and wave age regimes, with smaller unexplained/residual variations in W that has been a major concern in the W community.

Raman, Aishwarya↗

Precision X-Band Doppler and Ranging Navigation For Current and Future Mars Exploration Missions

This paper describes a navigation error convariance analysis of two scenarios derived from the Mars Observer mission and the planned Mars Environmental Survey (MESUR) Pathfinder mission, respectively. The analysis was performed to establish the potential navigational performance of the X-band tracking system in NASA's Deep Space Network, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the Predicted performance to variations in the quantity of data acquired, the ground system error modeling assumptions, and data reduction schemes.

Precision↗

Investigation on the Origins of Comets as Revealed through IR High Resolution Spectroscopy: I. Molecular Abundances

We report and analyze molecular abundances updatedin twenty comets by employingmodern data reduction procedures and molecular models. Using boxplots and scatterplots, we examine how the different molecular species are distributed among the comet population, while by means of pie charts we investigate the relative proportions of these molecular species in each comet. We compare these results with the orbital parametersof the selected targets in order to identify trends related to the dynamical history of each comet. In this way, we identify at least three chemical classes based mainly on relative abundances of CO, CH3OH, CH4, C2H6, HCN and NH3. The combination of relative abundances and orbital parameters is then compared with chemical models of planetary system formation and may offer an alternative approach to investigate the origin and evolution of the material in cometary nuclei.Our study also confirms the need to add more objects to our sample in order to improve the statistics, especially for hyper-volatiles (i.e. CH4and CO) in Jupiter Family comets.

M Lippi↗

Blunt Body Pitch Damping Measurements from Multiple Subsonic Free-to-Pitch Magnetic Suspension Trials

The yaw damping coefficients of two blunt entry vehicle models, measured from free-to-oscillate tests in the ODU/NASA subsonic magnetic suspension wind tunnel are presented. Multiple repeat trials were conducted for both models. Two separate data reduction methods were used to extract damping coefficients and yaw moment slope. Both methods identified similar damping and stability values, with differences being consistent with their known limitations.

magnetic suspension↗

Preliminary Measurement of Pitch Damping of Blunt Entry Vehicles in a Subsonic Magnetic Suspension Wind Tunnel

The yaw damping coefficients of two blunt entry vehicle models, measured from free-to-oscillate tests in the ODU/NASA subsonic magnetic suspension wind tunnel are presented. Multiple repeat trials were conducted for both models. Two separate data reduction methods were used to extract damping coefficients and yaw moment slope. Both methods identified similar damping and stability values, with differences being consistent with their known limitations.

magnetic suspension↗

Toward the fabrication of a 5 μm resolution Wolter microscope for the National Ignition Facility

Advancements in computer-controlled polishing, metrology, and replication have led to a x-ray mirror fabrication process that is capable of producing high-resolution Wolter microscopes. The mirror is a nickel-cobalt replicated full-shell mirror that was electroformed from a finely figured and polished mandrel. This mandrel was designed and fabricated for a 8 m source-to-detector distance microscope, with 10× magnification. A computer controlled polishing process corrected the low-frequency mandrel figure to < 2.0 nm RMS error. The mandrel design was optimized to reduce shell distortions that occur mainly < 20 mm from the shell ends. This design, in combination with improved replication tooling design and refined bath parameters informed by a detailed COMSOL model, have led to reductions in replication errors in the mirror shell. X-ray tests performed on a pair of mirror shells replicated from the mandrel have demonstrated < 10 μm FWHM source plane imaging resolution. Here we discuss the development process, highlight results from metrology and x-ray testing, and define a path for achieving 5 μm FWHM resolution.

Grazing Incidence, Wolter Microscope, X-ray Optics↗

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts↗

Orthogonal canonical forms for second-order systems

The authors prove that a linear second-order system with arbitrary damping cannot be reduced to Hessenberg-triangular form by means of orthogonal transformations, while this reduction is always possible for the modal damping commonly assumed for models of flexible structures. The type of canonical form obtainable by means of orthogonal transformations acting on a second-order system is heavily dependent on the type of damping considered. If the damping matrix is merely positive semi-definite symmetric, it is generally not possible to obtain a reduction to Hessenberg-triangular form, while this reduction is trivial for zero or Rayleigh damping. If damping is modal, however, as is commonly assumed in structural models, the reduction exists and is nontrivial. Furthermore, reduction to triangular second-order Schur form is always possible for such damping: this canonical form appears likely to have applications to second-order system theory.

Williams, Trevor↗

Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks

The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Helicopter Flight Procedures for Community Noise Reduction

A computationally efficient, semiempirical noise model suitable for maneuvering flight noise prediction is used to evaluate the community noise impact of practical variations on several helicopter flight procedures typical of normal operations. Turns, "quick-stops," approaches, climbs, and combinations of these maneuvers are assessed. Relatively small variations in flight procedures are shown to cause significant changes to Sound Exposure Levels over a wide area. Guidelines are developed for helicopter pilots intended to provide effective strategies for reducing the negative effects of helicopter noise on the community. Finally, direct optimization of flight trajectories is conducted to identify low noise optimal flight procedures and quantify the magnitude of community noise reductions that can be obtained through tailored helicopter flight procedures. Physically realizable optimal turns and approaches are identified that achieve global noise reductions of as much as 10 dBA Sound Exposure Level.

Greenwood, Eric↗

A model for the evolution of opaques in mare lavas

The apparent 'reduced' state of the opaque mineral assemblages of mare basalts has led to various hypotheses on their origin through reduction by various media. A model is developed whereby the presence of trivalent titanium (Ti/3+/) and metallic iron in mare lavas at low oxygen fugacities automatically leads to the production of the observed assemblages by cooling near the mare basalt solidus. The 'reduced' assemblages may evolve isochemically at oxygen fugacities near the iron-ilmenite-ferropseudobrookite buffer by a reaction of the form Fe(2+)+2 Ti(3+) = metallic iron +2 Ti(4+).

Haselton, J. D.↗

Neural Active Manifolds: Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction for Uncertainty Quantification

We present a new approach for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, specifically designed for computationally expensive mathematical models. We leverage autoencoders to discover a one-dimensional neural active manifold (NeurAM) capturing the model output variability, through the aid of a simultaneously learnt surrogate model with inputs on this manifold. Our method only relies on model evaluations and does not require the knowledge of gradients. The proposed dimensionality reduction framework can then be applied to assist outer loop many-query tasks in scientific computing, like sensitivity analysis and multifidelity uncertainty propagation. In particular, we prove, both theoretically under idealized conditions, and numerically in challenging test cases, how NeurAM can be used to obtain multifidelity sampling estimators with reduced variance by sampling the models on the discovered low-dimensional and shared manifold among models. Several numerical examples illustrate the main features of the proposed dimensionality reduction strategy and highlight its advantages with respect to existing approaches in the literature.

Autoencoders↗

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions due to COVID-19: Initial Results from CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. Twelve models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID- 19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Chris D. Jones↗

The Effect of Mass Distribution on the Lateral Stability and Control Characteristics of an Airplane as Determined by Tests of a Model in the Free-Flight Tunnel

The effects of mass distribution on lateral stability and control characteristics of an airplane have been determined by flight tests of a model in the NACA free-flight tunnel. In the investigation, the rolling and yawing movements of inertia were increased from normal values to values up to five times normal. For each moment-of-inertia condition, combinations of dihedral and vertical-tail area representing a variety of airplane configurations were tested. The results of the flight tests of the model were correlated with calculated stability and control characteristics and, in general, good agreement was obtained. The tests showed the following effects of increased rolling and yawing moments of inertia: no appreciable change in spiral stability; reductions in oscillatory stability that were serious at high values of dihedral; a reduction in the sensitivity of the model to gust disturbances; and a reduction in rolling acceleration provided by the ailerons, which caused a marked increase in time to reach a given angle of bank. The general flight behavior of the model became worse with increasing moments of inertia but, with combinations of small effective dihedral and large vertical-tail area, satisfactory flight characteristics were obtained at all moment-of-inertia conditions.

STABILITY & CONTROL, LATERAL↗

Stratospheric ozone decrease due to chlorofluoromethane photolysis - Predictions of latitude dependence

A two-dimensional model is used to predict the 1990 reduction in ozone due to the chlorine compounds formed by chlorofluoromethane (CFM) photolysis when the CFM release rate is held constant at the 1975 value. The predicted globally averaged ozone reduction of 3.5% is similar to that predicted by one-dimensional models that did not include chlorine nitrate chemistry, and used lower values for the reactions rates of NO + HO2 yielding NO2 + OH and O3 + HO2 yielding OH + 2O2. When the 5.7 ppbv increase in chlorine compounds predicted by one-dimensional models to occur under steady-state conditions is simulated by the two-dimensional model, a 26% decrease in atmospheric ozone is predicted. The latitude dependence of the ozone reduction is discussed in terms of the relevant photochemical reaction and transport. The chemical reactions that most strongly influence the meridional dependence of the ozone depletion are identified as those associated with the reactions of chlorine monoxide and atomic oxygen, the recombination of ozone and atomic oxygen, and the photodissociation of molecular oxygen.

Borucki, W. J.↗

Dynamic modeling and adaptive control for space stations

Of all large space structural systems, space stations present a unique challenge and requirement to advanced control technology. Their operations require control system stability over an extremely broad range of parameter changes and high level of disturbances. During shuttle docking the system mass may suddenly increase by more than 100% and during station assembly the mass may vary even more drastically. These coupled with the inherent dynamic model uncertainties associated with large space structural systems require highly sophisticated control systems that can grow as the stations evolve and cope with the uncertainties and time-varying elements to maintain the stability and pointing of the space stations. The aspects of space station operational properties are first examined, including configurations, dynamic models, shuttle docking contact dynamics, solar panel interaction, and load reduction to yield a set of system models and conditions. A model reference adaptive control algorithm along with the inner-loop plant augmentation design for controlling the space stations under severe operational conditions of shuttle docking, excessive model parameter errors, and model truncation are then investigated. The instability problem caused by the zero-frequency rigid body modes and a proposed solution using plant augmentation are addressed. Two sets of sufficient conditions which guarantee the globablly asymptotic stability for the space station systems are obtained.

Ih, C. H. C.↗