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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Cross‐Instrument Comparison of MapCam and OVIRS on OSIRIS‐REx

Two of the instruments onboard the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, the MapCam color imager and the OVIRS visible and 20 infrared spectrometer, observed the surface of asteroid (101955) Bennu in partially overlapping wavelengths. 21 Significant scientific advances have been enabled by using data from these two instruments in tandem, but a robust 22 statistical understanding of their relationship is needed for future analyses to cross-compare their data as accurately 23 and sensitively as possible. Here we present a cross-instrument comparison of data acquired by MapCam and 24 OVIRS, including methods and results for all global and site-specific observation campaigns in which both 25 instruments were active. In our analysis, we consider both the absolute radiometric offset and the relative 26 (normalized) variation between the two instruments; we find that both depend strongly on the photometric and 27 instrumental conditions during the observation. The two instruments have a large absolute offset (>15%) due to their 28 independent radiometric calibrations. However, they are very consistent (relative offset as low as 1%) when each 29 instrument’s response is normalized at a single wavelength, particularly at low phase angles where shadows on 30 Bennu’s rough surface are minimized. We recommend using the global datasets acquired at 12:30 pm local solar 31 time for cross-comparisons; data acquired at higher phase angles have larger uncertainties.

D R Golish↗
NASA NTRS2002

Crystal Growth of ZnSe and Related Ternary Compound Semiconductors by Vapor Transport

The objective of the project is to determine the relative contributions of gravity-driven fluid flows to the compositional distribution, incorporation of impurities and defects, and deviation from stoichiometry observed in the crystals grown by vapor transport as results of buoyance-driven convection and growth interface fluctuations caused by irregular fluid-flows. ZnSe and related ternary compounds, such as ZnSeS and ZnSeTe, were grown by vapor transport technique with real time in-situ non-invasive monitoring techniques. The grown crystals were characterized extensively to correlate the grown crystal properties with the growth conditions. The following are the research progress in the past two years. In-situ monitoring of partial pressure by optical absorption technique and visual observation of the growing crystal were performed during vapor growth of ZnSe. Low-temperature photoluminescence (PL) spectra and glow discharge mass spectroscopy (GDMS) were measured on ZnSe starting materials provided by various vendors and on bulk crystals grown from these starting materials by physical vapor transport (PVT) to study the effects of purification and contamination during crystal growth process. Optical characterization was performed on wafers sliced from the grown crystals of ZnSe, ZnTe and ZnSe(1-x),Te(x), (0<x<0.4). Energy band gaps at room temperature were determined from optical transmission measurements and a best fit curve to the band gap vs. composition, x, data gives a bowing parameter of 1.45. Low-temperature photoluminescence (PL) spectra of ZnSe and ZnTe were dominated by near band edge emissions and no deep donor-acceptor pairs were observed. The PL spectrum exhibited a broad emission for the ZnSe(1-x),Te(x), samples, 0.09<x<0.39. The single broad PL emission spectra and the spectra measured as a function of temperature were interpreted as being associated with the exciton bound to Te clusters because of the high Te content in these samples. To validate numerical codes, in-situ monitoring during the PVT of HgI2 was designed. Optical absorption spectra of the vapor phase over HgI2 were measured for wavelengths between 200 and 600nm at sample temperatures between 349 and 610K. The Beer's Law constants for 15 wavelengths between 200 and 440 nm were determined. From these constants the vapor pressure of HgI2 was established as a function of temperature for the liquid and the solid Beta-phases To characterize the growth conditions during the PVT growth of In-doped ZnSe the optical absorbance of the vapor phase over the In-Se system were measured and were used to obtain the partial pressures of Se2(g) and In2Se(g).

Su, Ching-Hua↗
NASA NTRS1975

Preflight studies on tolerance of pocket mice to oxygen and heat. III - Effects on eyes

A study was made of the eyes of eight pocket mice exposed to oxygen at partial pressures of 8, 10, or 12 psi over a period of 7 d. At the termination of the exposure, the animals were decompressed to sea-level O2, either immediately or over a period of 30, 60, or 90 min. No pathological changes were found in any of the eyes, except in the retina of one of the animals exposed to 12 psi O2. Here, only a single rod photoreceptor was found damaged, an observation not regarded as significant. Hence, an oxygen partial pressure as high as 12 psi in the canister in which pocket mice were expected to fly on Apollo XVII would probably have no deleterious effect on the eyes of the animals.

Philpott, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

A reduced adaptive observer for multivariable systems

An adaptive observer for multivariable systems of order n having p output measurements is developed. The adaptive observer allows both the generation of the state of the system and - at least - the partial identification of the unknown parameters of the system. The order of this adaptive observer is n - p plus 1. The adaptive algorithm, based upon Liapunov synthesis, may be implemented in real time without the use of derivative operators. Eigenvalues of the observer may be arbitrarily or almost arbitrarily located. With some mild restriction upon the structure of the multivariable system, and upon the command system input, both generation of state and identification of parameters is guaranteed globally.

Carroll, R. L.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Are IRIS bombs connected to Ellerman bombs?

Recent observations by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) have revealed pockets of hot gas (∼2–8 × 10{sup 4} K) potentially resulting from magnetic reconnection in the partially ionized lower solar atmosphere (IRIS bombs; IBs). Using joint observations between IRIS and the Chinese New Vacuum Solar Telescope, we have identified 10 IBs. We find that 3 are unambiguously and 3 others are possibly connected to Ellerman bombs (EBs), which show intense brightening of the extended H{sub α} wings without leaving an obvious signature in the H{sub α} core. These bombs generally reveal the following distinct properties: (1) the O iv 1401.156 Å and 1399.774 Å lines are absent or very weak; (2) the Mn i 2795.640 Å line manifests as an absorption feature superimposed on the greatly enhanced Mg ii k line wing; (3) the Mg ii k and h lines show intense brightening in the wings and no dramatic enhancement in the cores; (4) chromospheric absorption lines such as Ni ii 1393.330 Å and 1335.203 Å are very strong; and (5) the 1700 Å images obtained with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal intense and compact brightenings. These properties support the formation of these bombs in the photosphere, demonstrating that EBs can be heated much more efficiently than previously thought. We also demonstrate that the Mg ii k and h lines can be used to investigate EBs similarly to H{sub α}, which opens a promising new window for EB studies. The remaining four IBs obviously have no connection to EBs and they do not have the properties mentioned above, suggesting a higher formation layer, possibly in the chromosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of Aerosol-cloud Interaction in the GISS Model E Using ARM Observations

Observations from the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program are used to evaluate the ability of the NASA GISS ModelE global climate model in reproducing observed interactions between aerosols and clouds. Included in the evaluation are comparisons of basic meteorology and aerosol properties, droplet activation, effective radius parameterizations, and surface-based evaluations of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). Differences between the simulated and observed ACI are generally large, but these differences may result partially from vertical distribution of aerosol in the model, rather than the representation of physical processes governing the interactions between aerosols and clouds. Compared to the current observations, the ModelE often features elevated droplet concentrations for a given aerosol concentration, indicating that the activation parameterizations used may be too aggressive. Additionally, parameterizations for effective radius commonly used in models were tested using ARM observations, and there was no clear superior parameterization for the cases reviewed here. This lack of consensus is demonstrated to result in potentially large, statistically significant differences to surface radiative budgets, should one parameterization be chosen over another.

Clouds↗
NASA NTRS2005

Polymer based nanocomposites with nanofibers and exfoliated clay

Polymer solutions, containing clay sheets, were electrospun into nanofibers and microfibers that contained clay sheets inside. Controllable removal of polymer by plasma etching from the surface of fibers revealed the arrangement of clay. The shape, flexibility, size distribution and arrangement of clay sheets were observed by transmission and scanning electron microscopy. The clay sheets were partially aligned in big fibers with normal direction of clay sheets perpendicular to fiber axis. Crumpling of clay sheets inside fibers was observed when the fiber diameter was comparable to the lateral size of clay sheets. Single sheets of clay were observed both by catching clay sheets dispersed in water with electrospun nanofiber mats and by the deliberate removal of most of the polymer in the fibers. Thin, flexible gas barrier films, that are reasonably strong, were assembled from clay sheets and polymer nanofibers. Structure of composite films was characterized with scanning electron microscopy. Continuous film of clay sheets were physically attached to the surface of fiber mats. Spincoating film of polymer and clay sheets was reinforced by electrospun fiber scaffold. Certain alignment of clay sheets was observed in the vicinity of fibers.

Meador, Michael A.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Automated data extraction from in situ protein stable isotope probing studies

Protein stable isotope probing (protein-SIP) has strong potential for revealing key metabolizing taxa in complex microbial communities. While most protein-SIP work to date has been performed under controlled laboratory conditions to allow extensive isotope labeling of the target organism, a key application will be in situ studies of microbial communities under conditions that result in small degrees of partial labeling. One hurdle restricting large scale in situ protein-SIP studies is the lack of algorithms and software for automated data processing of the massive data sets resulting from such studies. In response, we developed Stable Isotope Probing Protein Extraction Resources software (SIPPER) and applied it for large scale extraction and visualization of data from short term (3 h) protein-SIP experiments performed in situ on Yellowstone phototrophic bacterial mats. Several metrics incorporated into the software allow it to support exhaustive analysis of the complex composite isotopic envelope observed as a result of low amounts of partial label incorporation. SIPPER also enables the detection of labeled molecular species without the need for any prior identification.

13C labeling↗
NASA NTRS1993

Surface pressure field mapping using luminescent coatings

In recent experiments we demonstrated the feasibility of using the oxygen dependence of luminescent molecules for surface pressure measurement in aerodynamic testing. This technique is based on the observation that for many luminescent molecules the light emitted increases as the oxygen partial pressure, and thus the air pressure, the molecules see decreases. In practice the surface to be observed is coated with an oxygen permeable polymer containing a luminescent molecule and illuminated with ultraviolet radiation. The airflow induced surface pressure field is seen as a luminescence intensity distribution which can be measured using quantitative video techniques. Computer processing converts the video data into a map of the surface pressure field. The experiments consisted of evaluating a trial luminescent coating in measuring the static surface pressure field over a two-dimensional NACA-0012 section model airfoil for Mach numbers ranging from 0.3 and 0.66. Comparison of the luminescent coating derived pressures were made to those obtained from conventional pressure taps. The method along with the experiment and its results will be described.

Mclachlan, B. G.↗
DOE OSTI2016

A study of 3π production in γp → n - π + π + π - and γ-p → Δ + + π + π - π - with CLAS at Jefferson Lab ->n

Apart from the mesons that the constituent quark model predicts, QCD allows for additional states beyond the qq system. Previous experiments have performed partial wave analysis on pion-production data and claim observation of an exotic J PC = 1 -+ state decaying via p-π. The g12 experiment took place at Jefferson Lab using the CLAS spectrometer, a liquid hydrogen target was used and a tagged photon beam. By studying the reactions γp → n - π + π + π - and γp → Δ + + π + π - π - , the photoproduction of mesons decaying to 3-pi was studied using two different but complimentary channels. Events are selected with low four-momentum transfer to the baryon, in order to enhance one pion exchange production. For both 3-pi systems the data exhibit two intermediate decays, p-pi and f 2 π. For the γp → n - π + π + π - reaction over 600k events were acquired resulting in the largest 3 photoproduction dataset to date. The exotic J PC = 1 -+ partial wave does not show resonant behavior and more so it is strongly consistent with a non-resonant non-interfering wave relative to a resonant π 2 (1670). Furthermore, the partial wave analysis shows production of the a 2 (1320) and π 2 (1670) mesons. For the first time we report observation of a photoproduced a 1 (1260) meson. For the γp → Δ + + π + π - π - reaction nearly 350k events were analyzed. A partial wave analysis was performed for the first time on this channel. The a1(1260), a2(1320), and the 2(1670) mesons were observed. Observation of the a1(1260) confirms the result first reported in γp → n - π + π + π - reaction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2001

Highly Siderophile Element Abundances in Martian Meteorites

Critical evaluation of new and literature data for highly siderophile elements (HSE) in Martian (SNC) meteorites allows several first order conclusions to be drawn. (i) Re concentrations in SNC meteorites are nearly constant (within a factor of two) and do not correlate with rock type. Exceptions to this rule are Chassigny and Dar al Gani (DaG) 476, both of which are inferred to have experienced terrestrial Re contamination. (ii) Fractionations between Rh and Pd are small. Excluding Shergotty, the Rh/Pd ratio of the SNC suite is 0.22\pm0.05. (iii) Os and Ir contents vary by about four orders of magnitude; and positive correlations with MgO, Cr, and Ni suggest that these variations are not controlled by sulfide fractionation. A possible exception is the orthopyroxenite ALH84001, whose HSE's (including Ni, which is compatible in opx) are very low. (iv) Zagami, Shergotty, and Nakhla have nearly identical HSE signatures. Shergotty and Zagami have experienced assimilation-fractional crystallization (AFC) and have "crustal" Sr and Nd isotopic signatures. Conversely, the Nakhla parent was a small degree partial melt of a depleted mantle that interacted little with the Martian crust. These observations suggest that "evolved" HSE signatures can be produced by either fractional crystallization or small degrees of partial melting. (v) Chassigny and other mafic SNC's have HSE signatures that are very distinct from those of Nakhla-Zagami-Shergotty. The HSE elemental ratios of mafic SNC's approach chondritic, implying that the Martian mantle has nearly chondritic relative abundances of the HSE's. (vi) This chondritic HSE signature is observed in SNC's of various ages, suggesting that this is an ancient feature that has not evolved over time. (vii) No correlation is observed between HSE's and signatures of crustal contamination (e.g., Sr isotopes), indicating that the HSE signatures of the SNC suite are not derived from the crust. (vii) The Ru/Pd for the SNC suite ratio is about 0.5 chondritic. We attribute this depletion of Ru to the presence of spinel in the SNC source regions. (viii) Assignment of this depletion of Ru to spinel seems to also imply that spinel is not the cause of Os and Ir fractionations, requiring some other mafic phase to account for the observed variations. -----.

Jones, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Preflight studies on tolerance of pocket mice to oxygen and heat. IV - Observations on the brain

Experiments designed to ascertain the effects of oxygen at 8, 10, and 12 psi partial pressure on the brains of pocket mice (Perognathus longimembris) were carried out at room temperature (24 C, 75 F) and at 32 C (90 F). The animals exposed to 8-12 psi at 32 C had been in earlier KO2 oxygen tests. Five animals exposed either to 10 or 12 psi (517 mm or 620 mm Hg) O2 partial pressure at 32 C died during the course of the tests, possibly as a consequence of injury sustained by the earlier O2 partial pressure testing. Autopsy was not carried out. In the other 36 exposed animals, no pathological changes were observed in the brain. It is thus highly probable that oxygen pressures at the hyperbaric levels to which the pocket mice would be exposed during the Apollo XVII mission would not result in any lesions in the brain.

Bailey, O. T.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Retrieval of Daily Maps of PM2.5 Aerosol in the Problematic California Valleys: Bright, Speckled Reflectances, Thin AOT, but High Pollution

The San Joaquin Valley suffers from severe episodes of respirable aerosol (PM2.5) in wintertime.We provide maps of aerosol episodes using daily snapshots of PM2.5 and its changing features despite numerous difficulties inherent to sampling the region. Linear relationships relating aerosol optical thickness (AOT) to PM2.5 give an explained variance of approximately 3.The GEO-CAPE mission has as a goal the provision of relevant measures of respirable aerosol to the community,but has not formulated a science goal beyond the limited goal of retrieval of AOT, bringing the usefulness of GEO-CAPE into doubt.Our special focus was on the DISCOVER-AQ period, Jan-Feb 2013, which had many supporting measurements.Both high pollution and retrieval difficulties tend to occur in many Mediterranean agricultural regions like the San Joauin. One difficulty is the relatively bright surfaces with considerable exposed soil. NASAs MAIAC and MODIS Deep Blue retrieval techniques are shown to have considerable skill even at low aerosol optical thickness (AOT) values, as evaluated by concurrent AERONET sunphotometer measurements.More significantly, these AOT values can correspond to high daytime PM2.5 since aerosol mixed layer depth is thin and variable, 200m 600 m. The thin layers derive from typical subsidence of dry air between more stormy periods. This situation provides an advantage: water vapor column is also almost completely limited to a similar mixed layer depth, and can thus serve as a measure of aerosol dilution.Using the MAIAC Water Vapor Column:In order to make the maps below, we used the MAIAC data but subtracted partial water-vapor columns estimated from MERRA Reanalysis Data availabe from the GSFC GMAO using kriging. We did not use the mixed-layer estimates from MERRA, since such analyses were found problematic during our forecasting exercises for DISCOVER-AQ. Observations from the aircraft soundings suggested that this overlying moisture was mostly due to larger scale flows, not ML venting.However, the specific humidity at the surface and a nearly well-mixed ML was analyzed by kriging from the surface network (MesoWest, University of Utah). These were thought to be truer, uninfluenced by physical process modeling that combines with data observations. (TBD: How different are they?) Procedure: Subtract overlying partial water columns from MAIAC column water and divide this by a surface value of water vapor. (MAIAC column is expressed in cm of water, i.e., water vapor at surface conditions.This method appears to bring out useful details in the distribution of submicron particles in the very problematic Wintertime San Joaquin Valley, and allow analysis of pollution episodes throughout the valley, rather than long-term averages.

san joaquin valley↗
DOE OSTI2016

Brady Well Coordinates and Observation Sensor Depths

Contains metadata associated with the wells used in the 2016 Spring Campaign led partially by UW - Madison, LBNL, and LLNL scientists. Included with the well coordinates are the depths to the pressure sensors used in observation and pumping wells. Read me files are included for each .csv file.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1985

Destabilization of yttria-stabilized zirconia induced by molten sodium vanadate-sodium sulfate melts

The extent of surface destabilization of ZrO2 - 8 wt percent Y2O3 ceramic disks was determined after exposure to molten salt mixtures of sodium sulfate containing up to 15 mole percent sodium metavanadate (NaVO3) at 1173 K. The ceramic surface was observed to transform from the cubic/tetragonal to monoclinic phase, concurrent with chemical changes in the molten salt layer in contact with the ceramic. Significant attack rates were observed in both pure sulfate and metavanadate sulfate melts. The rate of attack was found to be quite sensitive to the mole fraction of vanadate in the molten salt solution and the partial pressure of sulfur trioxide in equilibrium with the salt melt. The observed parabolic rate of attack is interpreted to be caused by a reaction controlled by diffusion in the salt that penetrates into the porous layer formed by the destabilization. The parabolic rate constant in mixed sodium metavanadate - sodium sulfate melts was found to be proportional to the SO3 partial pressure and the square of the metavanadate concentration. In-situ Raman spectroscopic measurements allowed simultaneous observations of the ceramic phases and salt chemistry during the attack process.

Nagelberg, A. S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dislocation mediated alignment during metal nanoparticle coalescence

Dislocation mediated alignment processes during gold nanoparticle coalescence were studied at low and high temperatures using molecular dynamics simulations and transmission electron microscopy. Particles underwent rigid body rotations immediately following attachment in both low temperature (500 K) simulated coalescence events and low temperature (~315 K) transmission electron microscopy beam heating experiments. In many low temperature simulations, some degree of misorientation between particles remained after rigid body rotations, which was accommodated by grain boundary dislocation nodes. These dislocations were either sessile and remained at the interface for the duration of the simulation or dissociated and cross-slipped through the adjacent particles, leading to improved co-alignment. Minimal rigid body rotations were observed during or immediately following attachment in high temperature (1100 K) simulations, which is attributed to enhanced diffusion at the particles' interface. However, rotation was eventually induced by {111} slip on planes parallel to the neck groove. These deformation modes led to the formation of single and multi-fold twins whose structures depended on the initial orientation of the particles. The driving force for {111} slip is attributed to high surface stresses near the intersection of low energy {111} facets in the neck region. The details of this twinning process were examined in detail using simulated trajectories, and the results reveal possible mechanisms for the nucleation and propagation of Shockley partials on consecutive planes. Deformation twinning was also observed in-situ using transmission electron microscopy, which resulted in the co-alignment of a set of the particles' {111} planes across their grain boundary and an increase in their dihedral angle. As a result, this constitutes the first detailed experimental observation of deformation twinning during nanoparticle coalescence, validating simulation results presented here and elsewhere.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Effects of Partial Mechanical Loading and Ibandronate on Skeletal Tissues in the Adult Rat Hindquarter Suspension Model for Microgravity

We report initial data from a suspended rat model that quantitatively relates chronic partial weightbearing to bone loss. Chronic partial weightbearing is our simulation of the effect of limited artificial gravity aboard spacecraft or reduced planetary gravity. Preliminary analysis of bone by PQCT, histomorphometry, mechanical testing and biochemistry suggest that chronic exposure to half of Earth gravity is insufficient to prevent severe bone loss. The effect of episodic full weightbearing activity (Earth Gravity) on rats otherwise at 50% weightbearing was also explored. This has similarity to treatment by an Earth G-rated centrifuge on a spacecraft that normally maintained artificial gravity at half of Earth G. Our preliminary evidence, using the above techniques to analyze bone, indicate that 2 hours daily of full weightbearing was insufficient to prevent the bone loss observed in 50% weightbearing animals. The effectiveness of partial weightbearing and episodic full weightbearing as potential countermeasures to bone loss in spaceflight was compared with treatment by ibandronate. Ibandronate, a long-acting potent bisphosphonate proved more effective in preventing bone loss and associated functionality based upon structure than our first efforts at mechanical countermeasures. The effectiveness of ibandronate was notable by each of the testing methods we used to study bone from gross structure and strength to tissue and biochemistry. These results appear to be independent of generalized systemic stress imposed by the suspension paradigm. Preliminary evidence does not suggest that blood levels of vitamin D were affected by our countermeasures. Despite the modest theraputic benefit of mechanical countermeasures of partial weightbearing and episodic full weightbearing, we know that some appropriate mechanical signal maintains bone mass in Earth gravity. Moreover, the only mechanism that correctly assigns bone mass and strength to oppose regionally specific force applied to bone is mechanical, a process based upon bone strain. Substantial evidence indicates that the specifics of dynamic loading i.e. time-varying forces are critical. Bone strain history is a predictor of the effect that mechanical conditions have on bone structure mass and strength. Using servo-controlled force plates on suspended rats with implanted strain gauges we manipulated impact forces of ambulation in the frequency (Fourier) domain. Our results indicate that high frequency components of impact forces are particularly potent in producing bone strain independent of the magnitude of the peak force or peak energy applied to the leg. Because a servo-system responds to forces produced by the rat's own muscle activity during ambulation, the direction of ground-reaction loads act on bone through the rat's own musculature. This is in distinction to passive vibration of the floor where forces reach bone through the natural filters of soft tissue and joints. Passive vibration may also be effective, but it may or may not increase bone in the appropriate architectural pattern to oppose the forces of normal ambulatory activity. Effectiveness of high frequency mechanical stimulation in producing regional (muscle directed) bone response will be limited by 1. the sensitivity of bone to a particular range of frequencies and 2. the inertia of the muscles, limiting their response to external forces by increasing tension along insertions. We have begun mathematical modeling of normal ambulatory activity. Effectiveness of high frequency mechanical stimulation in producing regional (muscle directed) bone response will be limited by 1. the sensitivity of bone to a particular range of frequencies and 2. the inertia of the muscles, limiting their response to external forces by increasing tension along insertions. We have begun mathematical modeling of the rat forelimb as a transfer function between impact force and bone strain to predict optimal dynamic loading conditions for this system. We plan additional studies of mechanical counter-measures that incorporate improved dynamic loading, features relevant to anticipated evaluation of artificial gravity, exercise regimens and exposure to Martian gravity, The combination of mechanical countermeasures with ibandronate will also be investigated for signs of synergy.

Schultheis, Lester W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment

The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a significant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/floods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/flood over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identified where June precipitation is significantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT effect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT effect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST effect has also been tested and 6 regions with significant SST effects were identified in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT effect is a first-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST effect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefly presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗