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Evaluating Nighttime CALIOP 0.532 micron Aerosol Optical Depth and Extinction Coefficient Retrievals

NASA Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) Version 3.01 5-km nighttime 0.532 micron aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets from 2007 are screened, averaged and evaluated at 1 deg X 1 deg resolution versus corresponding/co-incident 0.550 micron AOD derived using the US Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS), featuring two-dimensional variational assimilation of quality-assured NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) AOD. In the absence of sunlight, since passive radiometric AOD retrievals rely overwhelmingly on scattered radiances, the model represents one of the few practical global estimates available from which to attempt such a validation. Daytime comparisons, though, provide useful context. Regional-mean CALIOP vertical profiles of night/day 0.532 micron extinction coefficient are compared with 0.523/0.532 micron ground-based lidar measurements to investigate representativeness and diurnal variability. In this analysis, mean nighttime CALIOP AOD are mostly lower than daytime (0.121 vs. 0.126 for all aggregated data points, and 0.099 vs. 0.102 when averaged globally per normalised 1 deg. X 1 deg. bin), though the relationship is reversed over land and coastal regions when the data are averaged per normalised bin (0.134/0.108 vs. 0140/0.112, respectively). Offsets assessed within single bins alone approach +/- 20 %. CALIOP AOD, both day and night, are higher than NAAPS over land (0.137 vs. 0.124) and equal over water (0.082 vs. 0.083) when averaged globally per normalised bin. However, for all data points inclusive, NAAPS exceeds CALIOP over land, coast and ocean, both day and night. Again, differences assessed within single bins approach 50% in extreme cases. Correlation between CALIOP and NAAPS AOD is comparable during both day and night. Higher correlation is found nearest the equator, both as a function of sample size and relative signal magnitudes inherent at these latitudes. Root mean square deviation between CALIOP and NAAPS varies between 0.1 and 0.3 globally during both day/night. Averaging of CALIOP along-track AOD data points within a single NAAPS grid bin improves correlation and RMSD, though day/night and land/ocean biases persist and are believed systematic. Vertical profiles of extinction coefficient derived in the Caribbean compare well with ground-based lidar observations, though potentially anomalous selection of a priori lidar ratios for CALIOP retrievals is likely inducing some discrepancies. Mean effective aerosol layer top heights are stable between day and night, indicating consistent layer-identification diurnally, which is noteworthy considering the potential limiting effects of ambient solar noise during day.

aerosol optical depth↗

Quantifying Spatial and Seasonal Variability in Atmospheric Ammonia with In Situ and Space-Based Observations

Ammonia plays an important role in many biogeochemical processes, yet atmospheric mixing ratios are not well known. Recently, methods have been developed for retrieving NH3 from space-based observations, but they have not been compared to in situ measurements. We have conducted a field campaign combining co-located surface measurements and satellite special observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). Our study includes 25 surface monitoring sites spanning 350 km across eastern North Carolina, a region with large seasonal and spatial variability in NH3. From the TES spectra, we retrieve a NH3 representative volume mixing ratio (RVMR), and we restrict our analysis to times when the region of the atmosphere observed by TES is representative of the surface measurement. We find that the TES NH3 RVMR qualitatively captures the seasonal and spatial variability found in eastern North Carolina. Both surface measurements and TES NH3 show a strong correspondence with the number of livestock facilities within 10 km of the observation. Furthermore, we find that TES H3 RVMR captures the month-to-month variability present in the surface observations. The high correspondence with in situ measurements and vast spatial coverage make TES NH3 RVMR a valuable tool for understanding regional and global NH3 fluxes.

Pinder, Robert W.↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Offshore Wind Cost of Energy (Poster)

No matter the source, offshore wind energy plant cost estimates are significantly higher than for land-based projects. For instance, a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) review on the 2010 cost of wind energy found baseline cost estimates for onshore wind energy systems to be 71 dollars per megawatt-hour ($/MWh), versus 225 $/MWh for offshore systems. There are many ways that innovation can be used to reduce the high costs of offshore wind energy. However, the use of such innovation impacts the cost of energy because of the highly coupled nature of the system. For example, the deployment of multimegawatt turbines can reduce the number of turbines, thereby reducing the operation and maintenance (O&M) costs associated with vessel acquisition and use. On the other hand, larger turbines may require more specialized vessels and infrastructure to perform the same operations, which could result in higher costs. To better understand the full impact of a design decision on offshore wind energy system performance and cost, a system analysis approach is needed. In 2011-2012, NREL began development of a wind energy systems engineering software tool to support offshore wind energy system analysis. The tool combines engineering and cost models to represent an entire offshore wind energy plant and to perform system cost sensitivity analysis and optimization. Initial results were collected by applying the tool to conduct a sensitivity analysis on a baseline offshore wind energy system using 5-MW and 6-MW NREL reference turbines. Results included information on rotor diameter, hub height, power rating, and maximum allowable tip speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Building ENergy Demand (BEND) Model: A Comprehensive Composite Building Energy Modeling Framework

The Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model was developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate climate-dependent hourly building energy demand with the ability to disaggregate down to or aggregate up to any geographic area of interest, including counties, states, electric utility service territories, and census regions. The BEND modeling framework is designed to study the effects of climate change, economics, technology advancement, and various mitigation policies on aggregate building energy demand. To make the process computationally feasible, BEND reduces granularity in building characteristics and weather forcing while maintaining enough detail to minimize systematic differences (biases) between BEND results and data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Based on the Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) and Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) databases, BEND establishes a set of representative buildings with predefined sets of building types, sizes, and vintages. These representative buildings are defined for each of the four U.S. census regions and the five climate zones used by the EIA for building surveys (hereafter “EIA climate zones”). BEND’s representative buildings are based on a statistical analysis of the CBECS and RECS databases that infers detailed parameters such as construction type, thermal properties, internal loads, equipment and mechanical systems, and operation schedules from the high-level descriptors in those databases (building type, vintage, size, and location). The representative buildings are simplified and consolidated into a set of prototype buildings for the purpose of simulating building energy demand. Combining the prototype buildings with weather files from selected locations and years, BEND creates a set of simulation-ready building models to be run using the EnergyPlus simulation engine (EnergyPlus). The base spatial unit of each BEND simulation is a subregion that is the intersection of an International Energy Conservation Code climate zone, a census region, and an EIA climate zone; analysis for each spatial unit is influenced by the weather file BEND selects to represent the climate-similar area. The major simulation outputs of interest to BEND are hourly energy consumption values for each simulated year, possibly for multiple fuel types. Based on building-stock weights derived from the CBECS/RECS data, the hourly output streams are aggregated to a single, 8760-hour load profile for each of the major building categories—residential and commercial—with the possibility of segregating by fuel types. To correct for biases inherent in the use of a limited suite of representative buildings, BEND is calibrated against observational targets of total annual building energy consumption and hourly load profiles (including peak demand) obtained for the decision-relevant geographic scales of interest (e.g., total electric load data for individual balancing authorities available from EIA). Based on available data such as population distribution, BEND is able to aggregate both up and down scales, allowing the study of building energy demand over a range of spatial scales (e.g., states or counties within the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Eastern Interconnection, or the entire U.S.) and/or subsets of building types (e.g., office buildings with particular size ranges).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Multi-Isotope Process (MIP) Monitor Project: FY13 Final Report

The Multi-Isotope Process (MIP) Monitor provides an efficient approach to monitoring the process conditions in reprocessing facilities in support of the goal of “… (minimization of) the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism.” The MIP Monitor measures the distribution of the radioactive isotopes in product and waste streams of a nuclear reprocessing facility. These isotopes are monitored online by gamma spectrometry and compared, in near-real-time, to spectral patterns representing “normal” process conditions using multivariate analysis and pattern recognition algorithms. The combination of multivariate analysis and gamma spectroscopy allows us to detect small changes in the gamma spectrum, which may indicate changes in process conditions. By targeting multiple gamma-emitting indicator isotopes, the MIP Monitor approach is compatible with the use of small, portable, relatively high-resolution gamma detectors that may be easily deployed throughout an existing facility. The automated multivariate analysis can provide a level of data obscurity, giving a built-in information barrier to protect sensitive or proprietary operational data. Proof-of-concept simulations and experiments have been performed in previous years to demonstrate the validity of this tool in a laboratory setting for systems representing aqueous reprocessing facilities. However, pyroprocessing is emerging as an alternative to aqueous reprocessing techniques.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Qualification of System-Level Advanced Reactor Safety Analysis Software for Lead Systems: Final CRADA Report

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. With its origin as SAS1A in the late 1960s, the SAS series of codes has been under continuous use and development for over forty-five years and represents a critical investment in safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy. Although SAS4A/SASSYS-1 was developed to support the analysis of any liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactor, it has primarily been utilized to design and analyze Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs). As a result, most of the qualification basis for SAS4A/SASSYS-1 has utilized sodium as a coolant and geometry descriptions that are prototypic of SFR configurations. In this project, which partnered with Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC, the initial foundation for a qualification basis centered on prototypic pool-type lead-cooled systems has been established, where the end goal is to extend support for utilization of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in Lead Fast Reactor (LFR) licensing or authorization. This project included three fundamental technical tasks: LFR V&V test suite development (Task 1); qualification support for LFRs (Task 2); and LFR modeling capabilities evaluation and improvement (Task 3)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Initial Core Physics and Safety Analyses Supporting the Versatile Test Reactor

The Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) is a proposed integrated facility for investigations into the behavior of fuels and materials subjected to high, fast neutron fluxes prototypical of fast reactor environments. Detailed design of the reactor is currently being performed by a group of U.S. National Laboratories, including Argonne National Laboratory. The current design of the reactor is a 300 MW sodium-cooled pool-type fast reactor fueled with ternary U-20Pu-10Zr metallic fuel. This report documents reactor core physics and preliminary safety analyses that have been performed. The reference VTR core has 313 assembly positions, 66 of which contain fuel assemblies. The remaining assembly positions are loaded with reflector, shield, control rod duct, and test assemblies. Ten positions are available in the reference design for experimental or test assemblies, however the VTR will support test assemblies in any position in the core for alternate core loadings. The performance of the reference VTR core has been assessed for an assumed equilibrium cycle. The core power distribution and reactivity feedback coefficients have been calculated. Preliminary assessments of the reactivity coefficients have shown that each of them results in a negative reactivity change for increasing temperatures. Safety analysis of a VTR layout has been performed using the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. A model has been developed to represent the current core design and a reference heat transport system design. The model has been used to simulate and perform analysis of protected and unprotected loss of heat sink, station blackout, and transient overpower accident scenarios. These scenarios represent the three main ways to perturb the reactor core, through changes to the core inlet temperature, mass flow rate, or reactivity insertions and are credible bounding scenarios for the evaluated transient categories. The results of these simulations have been assessed against simplified criteria for Anticipated Operational Occurrences for the protected transients and for Beyond Design Basis Events for the unprotected transients. Because the primary heat transport system is able to transition quickly and effectively to natural circulation and because the shutdown heat removal system provides sufficient heat rejection capability, large margins for all criteria were predicted for all protected transients. Large margins were also predicted for the unprotected loss of heat sink and station blackout transients due to the strong negative reactivity feedbacks generated by the core. Because of the high power density in the reactor, smaller fuel melting margins are predicted for the unprotected transient overpower accident.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Proteo-Genomic Analysis Identifies Two Major Sites of Vulnerability on Ebolavirus Glycoprotein for Neutralizing Antibodies in Convalescent Human Plasma

Three clinically relevant ebolaviruses – Ebola (EBOV), Bundibugyo (BDBV), and Sudan (SUDV) viruses, are responsible for severe disease and occasional deadly outbreaks in Africa. The largest Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic to date in 2013-2016 in West Africa highlighted the urgent need for countermeasures, leading to the development and FDA approval of the Ebola virus vaccine rVSV-ZEBOV (Ervebo ® ) in 2020 and two monoclonal antibody (mAb)-based therapeutics (Inmazeb ® [atoltivimab, maftivimab, and odesivimab-ebgn] and Ebanga ® (ansuvimab-zykl) in 2020. The humoral response plays an indispensable role in ebolavirus immunity, based on studies of mAbs isolated from the antibody genes in peripheral blood circulating ebolavirus-specific human memory B cells. However, antibodies in the body are not secreted by circulating memory B cells in the blood but rather principally by plasma cells in the bone marrow. Little is known about the protective polyclonal antibody responses in convalescent plasma. Here we exploited both single-cell antibody gene sequencing and proteomic sequencing approaches to assess the composition of the ebolavirus glycoprotein (GP)-reactive antibody repertoire in the plasma of an EVD survivor. We first identified 1,512 GP-specific mAb variable gene sequences from single cells in the memory B cell compartment. Using mass spectrometric analysis of the corresponding GP-specific plasma IgG, we found that only a portion of the large B cell antibody repertoire was represented in the plasma. Molecular and functional analysis of proteomics-identified mAbs revealed recognition of epitopes in three major antigenic sites - the GP head domain, the glycan cap, and the base region, with a high prevalence of neutralizing and protective mAb specificities that targeted the base and glycan cap regions on the GP. Polyclonal plasma antibodies from the survivor reacted broadly to EBOV, BDBV, and SUDV GP, while reactivity of the potently neutralizing mAbs we identified was limited mostly to the homologous EBOV GP. Together these results reveal a restricted diversity of neutralizing humoral response in which mAbs targeting two antigenic sites on GP – glycan cap and base – play a principal role in plasma-antibody-mediated protective immunity against EVD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Objective models of compressed breast shapes undergoing mammography

Purpose: To develop models of compressed breasts undergoing mammography based on objective analysis, that are capable of accurately representing breast shapes in acquired clinical images and generating new, clinically realistic shapes. Methods: An automated edge detection algorithm was used to catalogue the breast shapes of clinically acquired cranio-caudal (CC) and medio-lateral oblique (MLO) view mammograms from a large database of digital mammography images. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on these shapes to reduce the information contained within the shapes to a small number of linearly independent variables. The breast shape models, one of each view, were developed from the identified principal components, and their ability to reproduce the shape of breasts from an independent set of mammograms not used in the PCA, was assessed both visually and quantitatively by calculating the average distance error (ADE). Results: The PCA breast shape models of the CC and MLO mammographic views based on six principal components, in which 99.2% and 98.0%, respectively, of the total variance of the dataset is contained, were found to be able to reproduce breast shapes with strong fidelity (CC view mean ADE = 0.90 mm, MLO view mean ADE = 1.43 mm) and to generate new clinically realistic shapes. The PCA models based on fewer principal components were also successful, but to a lesser degree, as the two-component model exhibited a mean ADE = 2.99 mm for the CC view, and a mean ADE = 4.63 mm for the MLO view. The four-component models exhibited a mean ADE = 1.47 mm for the CC view and a mean ADE = 2.14 mm for the MLO view. Paired t-tests of the ADE values of each image between models showed that these differences were statistically significant (max p-value = 0.0247). Visual examination of modeled breast shapes confirmed these results. Histograms of the PCA parameters associated with the six principal components were fitted with Gaussian distributions. The six-component model was also used to generate CC and MLO view mammogram breast shapes, using the mean PCA parameter values of these distributions and randomly generated values based on the fitted Gaussian distributions, which resemble clinically encountered breasts. A spreadsheet with the data necessary to apply this model is provided as the supplementary material. Conclusions: Our PCA models of breast shapes in both mammographic views successfully reproduce analyzed breast shapes and generate new clinically relevant shapes. This work can aid in research applications which incorporate breast shape modeling, such as x-ray scatter correction, dosimetry, and image registration.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Salt Sampling FY21 Technical Report

The goal of the salt sampling program at Argonne is to develop and deploy automated molten salt sampling approaches to enable high-precision in-process salt sample analysis to improve the timeliness of sampling-based accountancy measurements. Tools currently under development in support of this goal include (1) a modular vacuum sampler with an accompanying sample handling method for coupling vacuum sampling with high-precision at-line sample analysis, (2) a pneumatic sample generator that enables high-throughput sample analysis to improve the precision of existing analytical techniques, and (3) a windowless flow cell to enable on-line optical analysis of molten salt in a sampling loop. Compared to point sampling approaches (i.e., dip probes), vacuum sampling systems and on-line sampling loops facilitate access to a larger cross-section of a process fluid. This is known to improve the characterization of the process fluid by producing more representative samples and by enabling the analysis of a larger cross section of the fluid. A vacuum sampling approach for molten salts eliminates the risk of dross contamination of samples and avoids the use of moving parts in the salt. In FY21, two methods for integrating a vacuum sampler with a pneumatic sample generator were tested. These included direct fluidic coupling and coupling using a solid salt transfer mechanism. Solid salt transfer was ultimately selected over fluidic coupling, primarily to enable the transport of samples over longer distances to support automated at-line integration with high-precision techniques (such as microcalorimetry) that cannot withstand the extreme conditions near an electrorefining process. To facilitate rapid solid salt coupling, new mechanisms were developed for rapidly charging and discharging salt sample tubes at the vacuum sampler and pneumatic sample generator, respectively. While the charging mechanism will be deployed in FY22, the tube transfer method and discharge mechanism were tested in FY21. These were deployed at one of Argonne’s engineering-scale electrorefiners to implement at-line high-throughput pneumatic micro-sample generation capabilities. The method was used to generate precise uranium- and lanthanide-bearing electrorefiner micro-samples with the specific dimensions requested by researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use in testing their novel microcalorimeter x-ray techniques. The solid salt transfer mechanism proved not only to be an effective means of integrating the precision sample generator with vacuum sampling, but also improved the performance of the sampler generator. Because the modular sampling approach described here eliminates the need for new high-radiation sample handling capabilities, salt-wetted seals, salt-wetted moving parts, and heated transfer lines outside the electrorefiner, it will address most of the remaining technical challenges for the at-line deployment of high-precision analytical techniques. This will enable significant reductions in the time delay for sampling-based accountancy measurements by eliminating the need for manual off-line sample processing and analysis. On-line optical analysis of molten salt in a sampling loop would provide complementary information to at-line and in-situ techniques. In FY21, an open-aperture molten salt gravity flow cell with windowless optical access to flowing salt was successfully demonstrated. Future work should include the refinement and performance testing of the on-line and at-line sampling tools, integration of additional analysis techniques, stakeholder outreach and collaboration, evaluation of the integrated methods, and analyses to determine how the various tools might fit into an integrated safeguards monitoring system of unattended near real time monitoring tools.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Access Patterns and Performance Behaviors of Multi-layer Supercomputer I/O Subsystems under Production Load

Scientific computing workloads at HPC facilities have been shifting from traditional numerical simulations to AI/ML applications for training and inference while processing and producing ever-increasing amounts of scientific data. To address the growing need for increased storage capacity, lower access latency, and higher bandwidth, emerging technologies such as non-volatile memory are integrated into supercomputer I/O subsystems. With these emerging trends, we need a better understanding of the multilayer supercomputer I/O systems and ways to use these subsystems efficiently. In this work, we study the I/O access patterns and performance characteristics of two representative supercomputer I/O subsystems. Through an extensive analysis of year-long I/O logs on each system, we report new observations in I/O reads and writes, unbalanced use of storage system layers, and new trends in user behaviors at the HPC I/O middleware stack.

Bez, JL↗

Techno-economic analysis of high-efficiency natural-gas generators for residential combined heat and power

Residential combined heat and power (CHP) systems produce electricity onsite while utilizing waste heat to supplement home heating requirements, which can lead to significant reductions in CO 2 emissions and primary energy consumption. However, the current deployment of such CHP systems in the U.S. residential sector is extremely low primarily due to their high cost, short system life, and low system efficiency. Based on an analysis of average energy consumption of representative single-family homes in 10 U.S. cities across 7 different climate zones, it is concluded that there is no one-size-fits-all residential CHP system, but that a range of products are more likely to reflect consumer preferences. It is further identified via a systematic techno-economic analysis (TEA) that high-efficiency (e.g., 30% - 40% fuel to electricity), long-life (e.g., 15 years), low-cost (preferably less than U.S. $2,500 installed price), and low emissions are key requirements to enable widespread deployment of CHP systems in the U.S. residential sector. This article analyzes how the payback period would change for each city by varying nearly a dozen parameters and concludes with an evaluation on maximum market penetration based on a given set of parameters, and the resulting energy and emissions savings that can be practically achieved in some scenarios.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Evaluating CO 2 mitigation strategies in SAF biorefineries: Techno-economic and life cycle analysis

The aviation sector requires scalable decarbonization strategies, and lignocellulosic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) represents a promising pathway. This study comparatively evaluates the techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment (LCA) of three CO 2 management strategies integrated within a U.S.-based gasification–Fischer–Tropsch SAF biorefinery: (i) catalytic hydrogenation of captured CO 2 to methanol, (ii) geological CO 2 sequestration, and (iii) mineralization to sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO 3 ). Techno-economic analysis indicates that methanol synthesis requires approximately 26% higher capital investment and 33% higher operating costs than mineralization. Although methanol co-production generates the highest gross revenue, NaHCO 3 production reduces the SAF minimum selling price by approximately 38% relative to both methanol synthesis and geological sequestration pathways, reflecting a more balanced cost allocation through mineral co-product valorization. Geological sequestration lowers operating costs by nearly 50% compared with methanol synthesis but remains highly dependent on carbon credit mechanisms. LCA reveals substantial divergence in climate performance. Relative to methanol synthesis, sequestration improves net greenhouse gas performance by approximately 163%, transitioning the system from net-positive to net-negative emissions. Mineralization further enhances carbon mitigation, achieving roughly 85% greater carbon reduction than sequestration and over sixfold improvement relative to methanol synthesis within the defined system boundary. Sensitivity analysis identified hydrogen price, co-product market value, and process emissions as dominant drivers. Under baseline assumptions, CO 2 mineralization is found to offer the most balanced pathway.

Carbon capture and storage↗

LANDSAT TM image data quality analysis for energy-related applications

This project represents a no-cost agreement between National Aeronautic Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA GSFC) and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). PNL is a Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratory operted by Battelle Memorial Institute at its Pacific Northwest Laboratories in Richland, Washington. The objective of this investigation is to evaluate LANDSAT's thematic mapper (TM) data quality and utility characteristics from an energy research and technological perspective. Of main interest is the extent to which repetitive TM data might support DOE efforts relating to siting, developing, and monitoring energy-related facilities, and to basic geoscientific research. The investigation utilizes existing staff and facility capabilities, and ongoing programmatic activities at PNL and other DOE national laboratories to cooperatively assess the potential usefulness of the improved experimental TM data. The investigation involves: (1) both LANDSAT 4 and 5 TM data, (2) qualitative and quantitative use consideration, and 3) NASA P (corrected) and A (uncorrected) CCT analysis for a variety of sites of DOE interest. Initial results were presented at the LANDSAT Investigator's Workshops and at specialized LANDSAT TM sessions at various conferences.

Wukelic, G. E.↗

NASA ACC High Energy Dynamic Impact Methodology and Outcomes

For High Energy Dynamic Impact (HEDI) events, testing to evaluate the structural response of primary aircraft structure for design and certification is both expensive and time consuming. This paper discusses current work seeking to assess, develop, and validate appropriate analytical models that accurately predict physical response, damage, and failure modes for large scale composite structures in HEDI events. Four state-of-the-art Progressive Damage Analysis (PDA) methods were employed for this phased project: LS-DYNA MAT162, LS-DYNA MAT261, Smoothed Particle Galerkin (SPG), and EMU Peridynamics. Multiple material systems were considered, namely T700/5208 textile-infusion triaxial braid, T800/AMD-825 textile-infusion triaxial braid, IM7/8552 uni-directional tape, and SPG 196-PW/8552 plain-weave fabric. Extensive ballistic impact testing was performed to support this activity and measured results were compared to predictive models for assessment using panel delamination, panel displacement, force at the load cells, and threshold velocity as measures. Ultimately, the work under this activity provided significant progress in advancing the state-of-the-art in the use of PDA for HEDI events. Each material model had favorable performance comparing to test in some parameters and needed improvement in others. With the lessons learned from this activity, significant progress was made in the ability to predict panel behavior for a more general case beyond the flat panel in a ballistic impact event. Subsequent Phase II of the NASA ACC HEDI effort will continue to build on the coupon testing, flat panel ballistic impact testing, and analysis performed to-date with application of the PDA methods for intended material selections to test articles with greater complexity of configuration, curvature, and scale. It is not the intention of this paper to present a full set of data, but rather to give an overview of the NASA HEDI effort and show a small representative subset of the test and analysis results.

Hunziker, Kenneth J.↗

Integrated Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST): Structural-Thermal-Optical Analysis

This is a continuation of a series of papers on modeling activities for JWST. The structural-thermal- optical, often referred to as "STOP", analysis process is used to predict the effect of thermal distortion on optical performance. The benchmark STOP analysis for JWST assesses the effect of an observatory slew on wavefront error. The paper begins an overview of multi-disciplinary engineering analysis, or integrated modeling, which is a critical element of the JWST mission. The STOP analysis process is then described. This process consists of the following steps: thermal analysis, structural analysis, and optical analysis. Temperatures predicted using geometric and thermal math models are mapped to the structural finite element model in order to predict thermally-induced deformations. Motions and deformations at optical surfaces are input to optical models and optical performance is predicted using either an optical ray trace or WFE estimation techniques based on prior ray traces or first order optics. Following the discussion of the analysis process, results based on models representing the design at the time of the System Requirements Review. In addition to baseline performance predictions, sensitivity studies are performed to assess modeling uncertainties. Of particular interest is the sensitivity of optical performance to uncertainties in temperature predictions and variations in metal properties. The paper concludes with a discussion of modeling uncertainty as it pertains to STOP analysis.

Johnston, John D.↗

Multi-Satellite Synergy for Aerosol Analysis in the Asian Monsoon Region

Atmospheric aerosols represent one of the greatest uncertainties in environmental and climate research, particularly in tropical monsoon regions such as the Southeast Asian regions, where significant contributions from a variety of aerosol sources and types is complicated by unstable atmospheric dynamics. Although aerosols are now routinely retrieved from multiple satellite Sensors, in trying to answer important science questions about aerosol distribution, properties, and impacts, researchers often rely on retrievals from only one or two sensors, thereby running the risk of incurring biases due to sensor/algorithm peculiarities. We are conducting detailed studies of aerosol retrieval uncertainties from various satellite sensors (including Terra-/ Aqua-MODIS, Terra-MISR, Aura-OMI, Parasol-POLDER, SeaWiFS, and Calipso-CALIOP), based on the collocation of these data products over AERONET and other important ground stations, within the online Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS) framework that was developed recently. Such analyses are aimed at developing a synthesis of results that can be utilized in building reliable unified aerosol information and climate data records from multiple satellite measurements. In this presentation, we will show preliminary results of. an integrated comparative uncertainly analysis of aerosol products from multiple satellite sensors, particularly focused on the Asian Monsoon region, along with some comparisons from the African Monsoon region.

Ichoku, Charles↗

Gaining Confidence in Navigating Rosetta at Mars Swing-By

The Mars swing-by in the early morning of the 25th of February 2007 was one of the most critical events the Rosetta mission has experienced so far on its way to the comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The closest approach took place at a distance of only 250 km from the planet s surface. Missing the optimal target would have translated into considerable fuel cost. In order to achieve confidence in operating through this highly critical mission phase, a navigation analysis exercise was carried out beforehand. This paper describes the purpose and the chosen approach for this preparatory Flight Dynamics activity. It presents and discusses results of the analysis. Emphasis is put on the question of what is needed to simulate a valuable data set representative for operations. The results of the navigation analysis are compared with real data obtained during swing-by operations.

Crammn, Ruediger↗