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At least 721 records · Page 40

Electrolysis' Potential Value for Supporting the Electrical Grid

The H2@Scale concept includes a value proposition for electrolysis that benefits both hydrogen markets and the electricity system. Electrolysis has the potential to be an alternative low-cost hydrogen source by using low-price electricity that may be available for only a limited number of hours annually. It also has the potential to provide value to the grid through use of that low-cost electricity. By doing so, electrolysis can create a price floor which could support additional investment in low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE) generation such as photovoltaic solar, wind, and nuclear. The rapid-response characteristics of low-temperature electrolysis enables it to also provide ancillary services to the grid such as operating reserves and frequency control. We evaluate the economic performance of water electrolysis in a selection of electricity markets - both current and potential future markets. To perform that evaluation, we collect locational marginal prices (LMPs) in each market, calculate levelized hydrogen costs, and compare them to cost estimates of producing hydrogen via steam methane reforming of natural gas. Those calculations also include electolyzer capital and operating costs. We perform the calculations across a range of capacity factors to identify the minimum levelized hydrogen cost in that range. We discuss the implications of that capacity factor for each market analyzed. For a couple of the analyzed electricity markets, we include the potential value of providing ancillary services in the calculation and discuss those impacts. LDE generation has been shown to suppress electricity prices because it generates electricity when the resource is available (i.e., the sun is shining, wind is blowing, nuclear heat is being produced) and the generation cannot be reduced without an economic penalty. Price suppression is likely to reduce investment in those technologies due to reductions in projected income of each marginal unit. If electrolyzers are willing to pay for the LDE, it could provide a price floor for electricity. We analyze how setting a price for LDE could impact the electricity generation fleet, the availability of LDE, and the potential levelized costs of producing hydrogen using that LDE. Among other results, we will present a set of supply curves showing potential production costs and availability for hydrogen produced from LDE in a future with high penetrations of renewable electricity on the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Trust Model System for the Energy Grid of Things Network Communications

Network communication is crucial in the Energy Grid of Things (EGoT). Without a network connection, the energy grid becomes just a power grid where the energy resources are available to the customer uni-directionally. A mechanism to analyze and optimize the energy usage of the grid can only happen through a medium, a communications network, that enables information exchange between the grid participants and the service provider. Security implementers of EGoT network communication take extraordinary measures to ensure the safety of the energy grid, a critical infrastructure, as well as the safety and privacy of the grid participants. With the dynamic nature of network communication of the EGoT, the information provided by the customer or the service provider can be falsified by a malicious attacker. Therefore, a trust model is necessary to monitor any abnormal activities. This paper describes a distributed trust model system that meets the need of the EGoT. This paper describes methods for evaluating and improving the distributed trust model using standard hypothesis testing metrics such as true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative, equal error rate, and F1 score. Example calculations are shown based on generated sample data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Managing Subsurface Pressure Buildup and Interference in Commercial-Scale CO 2 Storage Project with Proximal Injection Wells

Large-scale decarbonization using carbon capture and storage (CCS) is likely to involve many commercial-scale CO 2 storage projects located in close proximity to each other. This close proximity raises concerns over pressure interference among the storage projects. Pressure interference between injection and storage efforts can reduce the practicable CO 2 storage resource and force wells to inject CO 2 at a lower rate to avoid the fracture pressure thresholds per United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI well regulations to preserve injection and confining zone integrity and potentially mitigate against inducing seismic activity. These analyses employ numerical full-physics reservoir modeling to evaluate how pressure buildup fronts and CO 2 plumes evolve under commercial-scale injection volumes of CO 2 in which multiple storage sites located in close proximity occur in tandem. The simulation models mimic injection at pseudo basin-scale and assume homogeneous saline formation(s) as storage targets with a pair of upper and lower homogeneous seal layer/s. These analyses specifically investigate the efficacy of two basin-wide reservoir pressure management strategies in addressing the technical challenges associated with pressure buildup and CO 2 plume commingling. The strategies explored include: 1) enlarging the area of injection well spacing (WS) and 2) storing CO 2 in a stacked sequence (SSS) of saline formations compared to a single formation. The storage and confining zones properties assumed were held common across the scenarios, unless specified otherwise. Analyses results show that after injecting 4 million tons per year for 30 years using 4 separate wells (each injecting 1 million metric tons per year), the radius of CO 2 plume extends to a mere 3 km or less from injection wells. Meanwhile, the radius of pressure buildup ranges on the order of tens to a few hundreds of kilometers, depending on the magnitude of pressure buildup threshold that one would use to define the front. CO 2 plume commingling from different injection wells appears to occur 50 years post-injection, especially under scenarios with narrowly spaced (i.e., < 5 km apart) injection well locations. Findings from sensitivity cases on the well spacing suggest that storage formations modeled would require different well spacing to avoid fracture pressure thresholds. For instance, modeled storage formations with high fracture gradients (i.e., 0.8 psi/ft) would need less than 5–km well spacing, whereas those with lower fracture gradients (i.e., 0.7 psi/ft) would need approximately 20–km well spacing, based on assumed modeling parameters. Under stacked injection, the pressure challenges (described above) still exist but are more alleviated due to distributing the same injection volume across more available reservoir volume. These analyses demonstrate that stacked-sequence storage can effectively address the challenges, while still providing the same target CO 2 storage volumes and allowing a large number of storage projects to be deployed in the same basin by better utilizing the available storage resource across different reservoir depths. Among cases modeled, the resulting pressure buildup front is most suppressed when each storage project distributes injection volumes over several wells, each of which injects a portion of the total CO 2 across the stacked sequence. This strategy results in the smallest CO 2 aerial footprint amongst scenarios evaluated but also shows the largest reduction in the pressure buildup at the top of perforation at the injection wells (upwards of approximately 42 percent compared to the commercial-scale single-formation storage), the result of which is crucial to maintain caprock integrity. The findings presented by this research draw attention to the importance of greater coordination among storage operators and regulatory stakeholders to foster the upscaling and deployment of CCS. These analyses provide insights into required decision-making when considering multi-project deployment in a shared basin. Because these analyses evaluate a very specific geologic situation, they bear further investigations across other geologic situations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Plant Diversity and Fertilizer Management Shape the Belowground Microbiome of Native Grass Bioenergy Feedstocks

Plants may actively cultivate microorganisms in their roots and rhizosphere that enhance their nutrition. To develop cropping strategies that substitute mineral fertilizers for beneficial root symbioses, we must first understand how microbial communities associated with plant roots differ among plant taxa and how they respond to fertilization. Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and rhizobacteria are of particular interest because they enhance nutrient availability to plants and perform a suite of nutrient cycling functions. The purpose of this experiment is to examine the root and soil microbiome in a longterm switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) biofuel feedstock experiment and determine how AM fungi and rhizobacteria respond to plant diversity and soil fertility. We hypothesize that intra- and interspecific plant diversity, nitrogen fertilization (+N), and their interaction will influence the biomass and community composition of AM fungi and rhizobacteria. We further hypothesize that +N will reduce the abundance of nitrogenase-encoding nifH genes on the rhizoplane. Roots and soils were sampled from three switchgrass cultivars (Cave-in-Rock, Kanlow, Southlow) grown in monoculture, intraspecific mixture, and interspecific planting mixtures with either Andropogon gerardii or diverse native tallgrass prairie species. Molecular sequencing was performed on root and soil samples, fatty acid extractions were assessed to determine microbial biomass, and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was performed on nifH genes from the rhizoplane. Sequence data determined core AM fungal and bacterial microbiomes and indicator taxa for plant diversity and +N treatments. We found that plant diversity and +N influenced AM fungal biomass and community structure. Across all plant diversity treatments, +N reduced the biomass of AM fungi and nifH gene abundance by more than 40%. The AM fungal genus Scutellospora was an indicator for +N, with relative abundance significantly greater under +N and in monoculture treatments. Community composition of rhizobacteria was influenced by plant diversity but not by +N. Verrucomicrobia and Proteobacteria were the dominant bacterial phyla in both roots and soils. Our findings provide evidence that soil fertility and plant diversity structure the root and soil microbiome. Optimization of soil communities for switchgrass production must take into account differences among cultivars and their unique responses to shifts in soil fertility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Remediation Guidance for Major Airports after a Bioterrorist Attack

This document provides general guidelines for airport managers, local officials, and other stakeholders for developing a response and recovery plan for a major airport following the release of a biological warfare agent, with specific guidance for remediation. San Francisco International Airport was selected as the example airport during development of the guidance to illustrate specific details. The spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis was selected as the biological agent of primary concern because it is the most difficult of known bioterrorism agents to inactivate and is considered to be one of the agents most likely to be used as a biological weapon. The focus of the guidance is on cleanup and disposal activities associated with the Characterization, Decontamination, and Clearance Phases that are defined herein. Activities associated with the Notification and First-Response Phases are brieÀy discussed in Appendixes A and B, respectively. In addition to the main text of this Remediation Guidance document and associated appendixes, a data supplement was developed specifically for San Francisco International Airport. Requests for the data supplement must be made directly to the Emergency Planning Operations Division of San Francisco International Airport. This document does not describe public health responses to release of a biological warfare agent. If laboratory analytical results confirm the presence of a biological agent, the responsible public health agency involved in the response will commence appropriate public health actions, such as treatment (CDC 2004) and decontamination of potentially contaminated individuals, distribution of prophylaxis, and medical examinations. See the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention web site for more information on emergency public health responses (http://www.bt.cdc.gov/). Effective communication with the media and the public is an essential component of airport remediation and recovery. Whereas such communication is beyond the scope of this document, many helpful resources are available. (See Section 1.1 for more information.) The concept of operations described in this document for cleanup of a Bacillus anthracis release at a major airport conforms to the National Response Framework (NRF) (DHS 2008) and implementation of the National Incident Management System (NIMS 2004). In most cases, a Unified Command would be formed to direct the cleanup process jointly and to take ultimate responsibility for all cleanup decisions. The Unified Command would likely include the Airport Manager or Airport Emergency Operations Manager, representatives from state and local public health and emergency management agencies, and Federal agencies, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The Unified Command and Incident Command Staff would ideally be co-located in an Incident Command Post in an uncontaminated area of the airport. If a release is large or complex, co-location of all key players may not be possible. If a major incident is declared, a Principal Federal Official may be appointed by the Department of Homeland Security to facilitate Federal support to the Unified Command. In some facilities and jurisdictions, additional response plans or procedures (such as BioWatch or other emergency response plans, procedures, or protocols) may govern notification and first response. Facility personnel, responders, and emergency management coordinators should be aware of all applicable plans and procedures and how to implement them. Cleanups following the anthrax attacks of 2001 in the U.S. pre-dated the NRF and NIMS and did not make use of a NIMS Incident Command System as we know it today. Most Incident Commanders for the larger of those cleanups chose to convene a Technical Working Group (TWG) of multi-agency, multi-disciplinary, outside experts to advise in developing sampling and decontamination plans. Most of the Incident Commanders also convened a separate Environmental Clearance Committee (ECC) to independently review pre- and post decontamination sampling data as well as data on decontamination parameters, to evaluate whether the decontamination was effective, and to add credibility regarding a decision that decontaminated areas may be reoccupied. Use of such specialized technical expertise is strongly recommended, although it would now operate within the construct of the NIMS Incident Command System. The TWG, if convened, would act in an advisory capacity to the Environmental Unit within the Planning Section. Likewise, the ECC, if convened, would provide independent peer review of products and recommendations by the Environmental Unit. For maximum impartiality, the ECC could also provide recommendations directly to the Unified Command. Cleanup activities commence with site characterization. The principal goal of characterization is to define the extent of contamination and to gather information needed to design the decontamination approach. Initial sampling data collected by first responders are assessed to approximate the location(s) of contamination. Confirmation of the agent type and viability is obtained from a Laboratory Response Network laboratory. Additional characterization data are collected to determine the extent of contamination and where decontamination actions are needed. Areas suspected of being contaminated are contained and isolated to the degree possible to prevent further movement of an agent to uncontaminated areas or the environment, and to reduce the potential for future exposure from the agent or fumigant, if fumigation is needed. Agent air monitoring in areas adjacent to the contained contamination zones is done to ensure the protection of remediation personnel and to monitor any release from the contained zones. Various sampling approaches are considered. For example, wipe samples can be used to sample hard, nonporous surfaces. Swab samples can be used to sample nooks, crannies, joints, and seams. Appendix I is a template for preparing an incident-specific, operational characterization plan. Upon completion of the characterization plan, an internal review is initiated. Upon approval of the plan by the Unified Command, characterization commences. The Site Safety Officer develops a Health and Safety Plan to ensure that coordinated health and safety measures are in place for all responding personnel. This plan describes physical, chemical, and biological hazards at the site, personal protective equipment, personal decontamination procedures, and emergency procedures to be used by sampling and remediation personnel. An incident-specific Remediation Action Plan is developed, which describes the decontamination methods to be used and other details, including waste disposal. Under NIMS, this overall plan, as well as other plans described below, are implemented through a series of standardized, shorter-term Incident Action Plans, which describe specific activities that will take place during a shift or a day. The template in Appendix J is designed to facilitate preparation of the Remediation Action Plan. If fumigation will be done, a Sampling and Analysis Plan will be needed, as well as an Ambient Air Monitoring Plan, which can be a component of the Remediation Action Plan. These three plans are needed to obtain a crisis exemption from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for authorized use of an unregistered sterilant or pesticide during cleanup. If pesticide products become registered for inactivation of B. anthracis in the future, the three plans will likely be required by the product’s labeling, but the plans would no longer be submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for approval; rather, the Incident Commander would approve them. If fumigation is used, an Emergency Response Plan is also recommended, although such a plan is not required for a crisis exemption. For some nonpersistent biological warfare agents, natural attenuation may be an adequate decontamination option. In cases where contamination is not extensive or an agent is not persistent, application of surface decontaminants or other methods of medical infection control may be effective. For extensive contamination by persistent agents, such as Bacillus anthracis, fumigation may be necessary. In those cases, the Decontamination Phase commences with source reduction, such as pre-cleaning surfaces to reduce the contaminant load. To expedite cleanup and prevent costs from escalating unnecessarily, a cost–benefit analysis should be incorporated in the decision process related to retention versus disposal of facility items and materials. Certain materials and structural components can be decontaminated for reuse, but it may not be feasible or cost-effective to decontaminate other items. Those items must be pre-treated, packaged (with the package decontaminated externally), and removed for disposal as waste. Site preparation includes sealing openings to prevent leaks and setting up equipment. Decontamination reagents and delivery systems are selected, and pre-testing all systems is done before carrying out chemical treatment(s). The important choice of decontamination technologies depends on characteristics of the agent, the nature and extent of contamination, and other site parameters identified during characterization. Decontamination-related decisions can have a major impact on waste-disposal costs, and it is necessary to develop a disposal plan that identifies a means of disposal, necessary approvals, transportation, and other details. A clearance strategy is developed to ensure that after decontamination, the risk of exposure to residual contamination is negligible. A clearance sampling plan is developed, which sets clearance criteria, specifies how to determine whether the criteria have been met, and describes how and where to collect clearance samples after decontamination. In most cases, clearance sampling includes both surface and aggressive air samples. Appendix K is a clearance plan template that identifies the types of required information. To determine whether the decontaminated area may be reoccupied, the Environmental Unit (and the ECC separately, if one is convened) evaluates the results of clearance samples. For the anthrax incidents to date, and given methods that have been used, cleanup was considered successful only when there was no growth of B. anthracis cultured from any environmental samples taken after decontamination. Other factors that will be considered include the decontamination process parameters (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, decontaminant concentration, and contact time) and the results from post-decontamination culture of biological indicators that may have been used during fumigation or sterilization processes. From such an evaluation the Environmental Unit or ECC, or both, recommend whether the area may be reoccupied, or whether further decontamination is necessary. The UC makes the final decision that a facility is appropriately decontaminated for reoccupancy. The facility owner or responsible public health agency makes the final decision to reopen a decontaminated facility. A theme that is emphasized throughout this document is that many activities can greatly reduce the time required to restore airport operations if those activities are conducted prior to an actual release of biological warfare agent. A summary of specific resources (such as Federal, state, and local agency contacts; contractors; prospective team members; subject-matter experts; laboratory facilities; and other entities) that should be identified in advance by airport officials is provided in each pertinent section of this document, and summary contact lists of such resources are provided in Appendix L. A summary of overall pre-planning actions that should be completed by airport officials is presented at the end of this document.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A GRACE ‐based assessment of interannual groundwater dynamics in the C ommunity L and M odel

Abstract The estimation of groundwater storage variations is important for quantifying available water resources and managing storage surpluses to alleviate storage deficiencies during droughts. This is particularly true in semi‐arid regions, where multiyear droughts can be common. To complement the local information provided by soil moisture and well level measurements, land models such as the Community Land Model (CLM) can be used to simulate regional scale water storage variations. CLM includes a bulk aquifer model to simulate saturated water storage dynamics below the model soil column. Aquifer storage increases when it receives recharge from the overlying soil column, and decreases due to lateral flow (i.e., base flow) and capillary rise. In this study, we examine the response of the CLM aquifer model to transitions between low and high recharge inputs, and show that the model simulates unrealistic long‐period behavior relative to total water storage (TWS) observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We attribute the model's poor response to large wetting events to the lack of a finite lower boundary in the bulk aquifer model. We show that by removing the bulk aquifer model and adding a zero‐flux boundary condition at the base of the soil column, good agreement with GRACE observations can be achieved. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of simulated total water storage to the depth at which the zero‐flux boundary is applied, i.e., the thickness of the soil column. Based on comparisons to GRACE, an optimal soil thickness map is constructed. Simulations using the modified CLM with the derived soil thickness map are shown to perform as well or better than standard CLM simulations. The improvements in simulated, climatically induced, long‐period water storage variability will reduce the uncertainty in GRACE‐based estimates of anthropogenic groundwater depletion.

Swenson, S. C.↗

Establishing radiation therapy advanced practice in New Zealand

Introduction: Advanced practice (AP) is of increasing interest to many radiation therapists (RTs) both nationally and internationally. In New Zealand, initial research (2005–2008) showed strong support for the development of an AP role for medical radiation technologists (MRTs). Here, we report on a nationwide survey in which RTs validated and prioritised nine AP profiles for future development. Methods: All registered RTs in New Zealand (n = 260) were invited to take part in a survey in December 2011; 73 of whom returned a complete response. Results: RTs supported the implementation of AP roles in New Zealand and the requirement of a Master's degree qualification to underpin clinical knowledge. Most RTs endorsed the criteria attributed to each of the nine proposed AP profiles. The study identified that activities may qualify as either advanced practice or standard practice depending on the department. All participants agreed that an advanced practitioner should be a leader in the field, able to initiate and facilitate future developments within as well as outside this specific role. Acceptance of the AP roles by RTs and other health professionals as well as the availability of resources for successful implementation, were concerns expressed by some RTs. Conclusion: The authors recommend (1) the development of one scope of practice titled ‘advanced practitioner’ with generic and specialist criteria for each profile as the future career pathway, (2) promotion and support for the AP pathway by the New Zealand Institute of Medical Radiation Technology and the New Zealand Medical Radiation Technologists Board.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

OpenMP in VASP: Threading and SIMD

Abstract The Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP) is a widely used electronic structure code that originally exploits process‐level parallelism through the Message Passing Interface (MPI) for work distribution within and across nodes. Architectural changes of modern parallel processors urge programmers to address thread‐ and data‐level parallelism as well to benefit most from the available compute resources within a node. We describe for VASP how to approach for an MPI + OpenMP parallelization including data‐level parallelism through OpenMP SIMD constructs together with a generic high‐level vector coding scheme. We can demonstrate an improved scalability of VASP and more than 20% gain over the MPI‐only version as well as a 2× increased performance of collective operations using the multiple‐endpoint MPI feature. The high‐level vector coding scheme applied to VASP's general gradient approximation routine gives up 9× performance gain on AVX512 platforms with the Intel compiler.

Wende, Florian↗

An extensible vector toolkit and parts library for advanced engineering of plant genomes

Abstract Plant biotechnology is rife with new advances in transformation and genome engineering techniques. A common requirement for delivery and coordinated expression in plant cells, however, places the design and assembly of transformation constructs at a crucial juncture as desired reagent suites grow more complex. Modular cloning principles have simplified some aspects of vector design, yet many important components remain unavailable or poorly adapted for rapid implementation in biotechnology research. Here, we describe a universal Golden Gate cloning toolkit for vector construction. The toolkit chassis is compatible with the widely accepted Phytobrick standard for genetic parts, and supports assembly of arbitrarily complex T‐DNAs through improved capacity, positional flexibility, and extensibility in comparison to extant kits. We also provision a substantial library of newly adapted Phytobricks, including regulatory elements for monocot and dicot gene expression, and coding sequences for genes of interest such as reporters, developmental regulators, and site‐specific recombinases. Finally, we use a series of dual‐luciferase assays to measure contributions to expression from promoters, terminators, and from cross‐cassette interactions attributable to enhancer elements in certain promoters. Taken together, these publicly available cloning resources can greatly accelerate the testing and deployment of new tools for plant engineering.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Prioritizing the selection of CMIP6 model ensemble members for downscaling projections of CONUS temperature and precipitation

Given the mismatch between the large volume of data archived for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and limited personnel and computational resources for downscaling, only a small fraction of the CMIP6 archive can be downscaled. In this work, we develop an approach to robustly sample projected hydroclimate states in CMIP6 for downscaling to test whether the selection of a single initial condition (IC) ensemble member from each CMIP6 model is sufficient to span the range of modeled hydroclimate over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and CONUS sub-regions. We calculate the pattern-centered root mean square difference of IC ensemble member anomalies relative to each model’s historical climatology for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections over 30-year time periods and compare the ratio of inter-model to intra-model variability for this metric. Regardless of SSP, inter-model variability is generally much greater than intra-model variability at the scales of the CONUS as a whole, as well as for most CONUS sub-regions. However, for some variables and scenarios, inter- and intra-model variability are similar at sub-CONUS scales, indicating that selecting a single IC ensemble member per model may be sufficient to sample the range of projected hydroclimate states in the 21st Century across CONUS, but for specific regions and variables, more careful selection of ensemble members may be necessary. Regionally resolved Taylor diagrams identify where more IC ensemble member downscaling efforts should be focused if resources are available to do so. Our results suggest that, with parsimonious sampling, the requisite computational expense of downscaling temperature and precipitation fields over the CONUS for subsequent CMIP activities may increase only marginally despite the great increase in data volumes with each successive CMIP phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation of ACTS into sPHENIX Track Reconstruction

Abstract sPHENIX is a high energy nuclear physics experiment under construction at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The primary physics goals of sPHENIX are to study the quark-gluon-plasma, as well as the partonic structure of protons and nuclei, by measuring jets, their substructure, and heavy flavor hadrons in $$p$$ p $$+$$ + $$p$$ p , p + Au, and Au + Au collisions. sPHENIX will collect approximately 300 PB of data over three run periods, to be analyzed using available computing resources at BNL; thus, performing track reconstruction in a timely manner is a challenge due to the high occupancy of heavy ion collision events. The sPHENIX experiment has recently implemented the A Common Tracking Software (ACTS) track reconstruction toolkit with the goal of reconstructing tracks with high efficiency and within a computational budget of 5 s per minimum bias event. This paper reports the performance status of ACTS as the default track fitting tool within sPHENIX, including discussion of the first implementation of a time projection chamber geometry within ACTS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Chapter 2: Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

The global geothermal power market has shown significant growth since the last decade and is expected to reach a total installed capacity of 18.4 gigawatts electric (GWe) by the end of 2021 (GEA, 2016). The global geothermal power plant turbine market is dominated by a small number of manufacturers. Between 2005 and 2015, 82% of the geothermal steam turbines were manufactured in Japan, and 74% of the geothermal binary cycle turboexpanders were manufactured in Israel. During this period, the United States played an important role in the global trade flow of fully assembled turbine units and turbine parts, with a high volume of imports and exports. Another significant growth area was in Italian turbine/turboexpander manufacturers, who have increased their market share in the last couple of years. One other important change in the manufacturing market was in Turkey, where the bonus on feed-in-tariff (FIT) for domestic hardware components boosted the national manufacturing sector between 2010 and 2020. When planning geothermal power projects, developers customize their power plant size to fit the available geothermal resource capacity. The turbine is designed and sized to optimize the efficiency and utilization of resource and revenue production. The rest of the power plant components such as heat exchangers (HX), water-cooled cooling towers (WCCT), or air-cooled condensers (ACC) are then chosen to complement the turbine size and design. These one-off manufacturing custom design turbines have relatively higher manufacturing set-up costs, longer lead times, and higher capital costs than the standard design turbines manufactured in larger volumes. However, turbines produced in standard increments and in larger manufacturing volumes could result in lower costs per turbine, but potentially lower efficiency. Based on pipeline projects and resource assessments, there is significant potential value in creating standard turbine sizes that could offer an economic advantage, as is done for modular microturbines.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bumble bee colony growth and reproduction depend on local flower dominance and natural habitat area in the surrounding landscape

Conservation measures for bees often focus on increasing the diversity and abundance of floral resources. But it has not been clear if observed benefits of floral enhancements result from greater population growth, which is critical for the long-term success of conservation, or from mobile foragers aggregating in high-resource locations. Experimental evidence is only beginning to emerge in favor of the former mechanism and it is not well-established how different aspects of floral resources affect population growth. For example, bumble bee colonies may benefit from greater overall floral abundance, richness, or relative dominance of resource species. Because bumble bees are highly mobile, resource variability in the surrounding landscape is also important for colonies and may mediate local-scale effects. We experimentally assessed the growth and reproduction of bumble bee colonies (Bombus impatiens) deployed in grasslands in different local- and landscape-scale resource environments. Furthermore, we found that floral dominance, rather than the overall abundance or richness of floral resources, was the most important local factor for colony growth and reproduction. This may reflect more efficient foraging on a few numerically dominant and abundant resource species. Local- and landscape-scale predictor variables had interacting effects on colony growth and reproduction, suggesting that foraging distance depends on where in the landscape efficiently used resources are located. Our results provide further evidence that conservation strategies aimed at enhancing floral resources can increase bumble bee population growth. However, the most effective form of floral enhancement may vary among bee species.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Impact of soiling on Si and CdTe PV modules: Case study in different Brazil climate zones

Soiling, particulate accumulation on photovoltaic (PV) module surfaces, reduces the available solar resource and the resulting generated device power. This case-study summarizes initial results of 5-year research on the contrasting soiling conditions in the tropical, subtropical, and semi-arid climates in Brazil. A major objective is to present a case study of the effects of soiling on PV module performance in different Brazil climate zones that represent the primary areas for the current and expanding Brazil solar installations. For this, the paper presents methodologies to quantify the soiling ratio (SRatio) and soiling rate (SRate) for two representative commercial technologies, polycrystalline or multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) and thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules, through soiling monitoring stations deployed in the selected climate regions. An aim is to add to the growing soiling-research knowledge base through addressing these key factors and their relationships to critical electrical, solar resource, thermal, and local meteorological and environmental parameters. This paper presents, evaluates, and compares soiling rates and losses in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (Equatorial Tropical: 19.92° S, 43.99° W), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul (Humid-Subtropical: 30.05° S, 51.17° W), and Brotas de Macaúbas, Bahia (Semi-Arid: 12.00° S, 42.63° W). The results show that soiling is moderate in all 3-regions, for example with 0.1%/day < SRate < 0.2%/day for Belo Horizonte. Precipitation dominates the cleaning of the modules in the summertime in this climate zone, while it is the major factor year-round in Rio Grande do Sul. Wind is the major issue mitigating the soiling accumulation for the Bahia installation. The methodology incorporates several key refinements, including the normalization and adjustment for the meteorological parameters (temperature, irradiance, wind, precipitation). The evaluations include the region-specific differing effects of non-uniform soiling, natural cleaning, and ambient temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-performance of CrOx/HZSM-5 catalyst on non-oxidative dehydrogenation of C 2 H 6 to C 2 H 4 : Effect of supporting materials and associated mechanism

Ethane (C 2 H 6 ) is an important inexpensive and widely available fuel resource. High-value use of C 2 H 6 has become increasingly important. Catalytic dehydrogenation of C 2 H 6 to ethylene (C 2 H 4 ) has attracted much attention in recent years due to its high energy efficiency. The direct non-oxidative ethane dehydrogenation (EDH) to ethylene is a promising strategy to produce ethylene and hydrogen at the same time. In this research, Cr/HZSM-5 catalyst with superior stability was synthesized and exhibited an C 2 H 6 converting activity of 1.47 µmol/(g·s) with the corresponding C 2 H 6 conversion and C 2 H 4 selectivity of 37.3% and 90%, respectively. Herein, the synergistic effects of Si and Al in supporting materials were investigated by comparing Cr/HZSM-5 with SBA-15, SiO 2 and Al 2 O 3 supported ones, which contains either Al or Si with different structures. Characterization results indicated that the intimate interactions between Cr and support significantly improved the catalytic performance. The presence of Al in the support promoted the formation of more active Cr 6+ species by forming the aluminum-chromium-chromate (Cr-O-Al) structures which were more efficient to active C-H bond and form (Cr, Al)-OH groups during the reaction. Meanwhile, the formation of internal silanol group with the dissociative adsorbed H* could stabilized the active Cr phase to achieve a stable dehydrogenation activity.

03 NATURAL GAS↗