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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Self-Calibration of BICEP1 Three-Year Data and Constraints on Astrophysical Polarization Rotation

Cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarimeters aspire to measure the faint B-mode signature predicted to arise from inflationary gravitational waves. They also have the potential to constrain cosmic birefringence, rotation of the polarization of the CMB arising from parity-violating physics, which would produce nonzero expectation values for the CMB's temperature to B-mode correlation (TB) and E-mode to B-mode correlation (EB) spectra. However, instrumental systematic effects can also cause these TB and EB correlations to be nonzero. In particular, an overall miscalibration of the polarization orientation of the detectors produces TB and EB spectra which are degenerate with isotropic cosmological birefringence, while also introducing a small but predictable bias on the BB spectrum. We find that BICEP1 three-year spectra, which use our standard calibration of detector polarization angles from a dielectric sheet, are consistent with a polarization rotation of alpha = −2.77deg +/- 0.86deg (statistical) +/- 1.3deg (systematic). We have revised the estimate of systematic error on the polarization rotation angle from the two-year analysis by comparing multiple calibration methods. We also account for the (negligible) impact of measured beam systematic effects. We investigate the polarization rotation for the BICEP1 100 GHz and 150 GHz bands separately to investigate theoretical models that produce frequency-dependent cosmic birefringence. We find no evidence in the data supporting either of these models or Faraday rotation of the CMB polarization by the Milky Way galaxy's magnetic field. If we assume that there is no cosmic birefringence, we can use the TB and EB spectra to calibrate detector polarization orientations, thus reducing bias of the cosmological B-mode spectrum from leaked E-modes due to possible polarization orientation miscalibration. After applying this "self-calibration" process, we find that the upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio decreases slightly, from r < 0.70 to r < 0.65 at 95% confidence.

three-year↗
NASA NTRS2015

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over Australia.

AERONET↗
NASA NTRS2015

Optimization of Microphone Locations for Acoustic Liner Impedance Eduction

Two impedance eduction methods are explored for use with data acquired in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube. The first is an indirect method based on the convected Helmholtz equation, and the second is a direct method based on the Kumaresan and Tufts algorithm. Synthesized no-flow data, with random jitter to represent measurement error, are used to evaluate a number of possible microphone locations. Statistical approaches are used to evaluate the suitability of each set of microphone locations. Given the computational resources required, small sample statistics are employed for the indirect method. Since the direct method is much less computationally intensive, a Monte Carlo approach is employed to gather its statistics. A comparison of results achieved with full and reduced sets of microphone locations is used to determine which sets of microphone locations are acceptable. For the indirect method, each array that includes microphones in all three regions (upstream and downstream hard wall sections, and liner test section) provides acceptable results, even when as few as eight microphones are employed. The best arrays employ microphones well away from the leading and trailing edges of the liner. The direct method is constrained to use microphones opposite the liner. Although a number of arrays are acceptable, the optimum set employs 14 microphones positioned well away from the leading and trailing edges of the liner. The selected sets of microphone locations are also evaluated with data measured for ceramic tubular and perforate-over-honeycomb liners at three flow conditions (Mach 0.0, 0.3, and 0.5). They compare favorably with results attained using all 53 microphone locations. Although different optimum microphone locations are selected for the two impedance eduction methods, there is significant overlap. Thus, the union of these two microphone arrays is preferred, as it supports usage of both methods. This array contains 3 microphones in the upstream hard wall section, 14 microphones opposite the liner, and 3 microphones in the downstream hard wall section.

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation Analysis of NASA SMAP L3 and L4 and SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture Data in the United States

Soil moisture has a critical role in the development, frequency and persistence of climatic and hydrologic extremes such as drought, heat wave and flooding events. In situ soil moisture data are uneven and sparse in time and space. This highlights the need to utilize other soil moisture sources to fill this spatiotemporal gap. The goal of this study is to validate one satellite-based and two model-based soil moisture datasets with in situ data across the United States. Soil moisture information from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) enhanced level 3 (L3) (SMAP L3) and modeled level 4 (L4) (SMAP L4) data at 9-km resolution and Short-term Prediction Research and Transition-Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) modeled at 3-km resolution were selected for evaluation. SPoRT-LIS is a near real-time, high resolution operational land analysis data. Ground-based data were obtained from the North American Soil Moisture Database (NASMD) for 362 stations. Seven statistical indicators including anomaly, Spearman, and Pearson correlation coefficients, the systematic error (Bias), root mean square error (RMSE), unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), and normalized standard deviation (SDV) were used to evaluate the satellite- and model-derived soil moisture data. In addition, the triple collocation (TC) error model was used to measure the error among SMAP L4, SPoRT-LIS and ground-based data. This study assesses which satellite or modeled dataset is most appropriate for specific times and locations to use as a surrogate for in situ observations. Temporal and spatial analysis demonstrated that, overall, SMAP L4 performed better than SMAP L3 and SPoRT-LIS. Strong agreement was observed between SMAP L4 and in situ observations (ρ = 0.53, Bias = −0.006) in all seasons and most regions with various land covers, especially in winter and in the central regions of the United States. For croplands, SMAP L4 presented the best agreement with in situ data, analyzing all period (ρ = 0.60) and non-winter period (ρ = 0.61) separately.

Tavakol, Ameneh↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Examination of L-Band Brightness Temperature Forecasts in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission [4] has been providing L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations since April 2015. By assimilating the Tb observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model [5] using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office generates the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, which provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with ~2.5-day latency for use in research and applications [6]. The L4_SM product also includes estimates of soil temperature, land surface fluxes, and assimilation diagnostics such as the model forecast and observed Tb values [7]. The output from the L4_SM system is routinely monitored by the L4_SM team. Such monitoring provides valuable information; instances of unusually large Tb observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals can indicate events during which soil moisture conditions are poorly described in the land modeling system [7,8]. For example, repeated occurrences of very large Tb O-F values in central Australia were traced back to deficiencies in the gauge-based precipitation product used in the land modeling system through L4_SM Version 5; this discovery prompted the use, beginning in Version 6, of satellite- and gauge-based precipitation observations outside of North America [9]. Recently, a statistical analysis of the Tb O-F residuals revealed systematic errors in the “tau-omega” L-band radiative transfer model that converts the land-model simulated soil moisture and temperature into the forecast Tb prior to the L4_SM analysis. The L4_SM analysis is built on the ensemble Kalman filter and assumes unbiased forecast errors. The presence of systematic Tb forecast errors could thus adversely impact the quality of the analyzed soil moisture. In this paper, we examine the Tb O-F residuals of the latest Version 7 L4_SM data (Science Version ID Vv7030 and Vv7032) [10,11,12]. In the L4_SM Version 7 algorithm, key parameters of the L-band radiative transfer model, including soil roughness, scattering albedo, and a (seasonally varying) climatology of vegetation opacity, are obtained from the SMAP Level-2 Radiometer retrieval product (Version 5) [1]. Additionally, we also use ground measurements of surface soil moisture and soil temperature from the SMAP core validation sites as in situ reference of soil conditions [2,3]. As part of the L4_SM system calibration, the seasonally-varying bias between the model forecast Tb and the observed values is removed prior to the assimilation of the SMAP Tb observations [7]. That is, the L4_SM system is designed to only correct errors in synoptic-scale and interannual variations from the long-term mean seasonal cycle while maintaining the model’s (potentially erroneous) climatology. The Tb O-F residuals examined here are thus computed using SMAP Tb observations after they are rescaled to the mean seasonal cycle of Tb from the modeling system without SMAP data assimilation. Consequently, the long-term average of the Tb O-F residuals has a global mean of only 0.13 K and locally small values, ranging from -1 to 3 K. Despite the small time-average values of the Tb O-F residuals, the model forecast Tb was nevertheless found to exhibit undesirable systematic errors. At some locations, the time-average Tb O-F values strongly depend on surface soil moisture (SM). At the Yanco SMAP core validation site, for example, the Tb O-F residuals typically range from 5 to 15 K under dry soil moisture conditions (SM < 0.15 m3 m-3) yet are predominantly negative under wet soil moisture conditions (SM > 0.25 m3 m-3), with values ranging from 0 to -40 K. This results in soil moisture analysis increments that persistently make the soil drier under dry SM conditions and persistently make the soil wetter under wet SM conditions, suggesting an error in the dynamic range of the simulated Tb, soil moisture or soil temperature. In this paper, we describe the higher-order systematic Tb forecast errors in more detail, examine their impact on the L4_SM product quality, and explore potential avenues to further improve the L4_SM algorithm.

Rolf Reichle↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GeoXO Atmospheric Composition Instrument (AC) Measurements Conditions Assessment

NOAA’s next generation Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) satellite system will advance Earth observations from geostationary orbit. GeoXO will supply vital information supporting the U.S. weather, ocean, and climate operations. The recommended three-satellite constellation includes spacecraft at GOES-Central position, that will carry an Atmospheric Composition Instrument (ACX) among its payloads; the requirement on the ACX is to scan its region of interest in one hour. An assessment of ACX observational conditions is presented, based on view geometry and solar angle range over the year. The availability for observations of each pixel is estimated per day of the year, as function of the geometric air mass factor (AMF), which can be related to signal to noise ratio using a model of the ACX instrument performance, and ultimately to expected column error for specific atmospheric species. In addition, cloud climatology – based on statistics derived from GOES-16 ABI cloud product data – is considered to determine typical fractions of cloud-free ACX observations and typical cloud optical depths, for each pixel as function of time of day and season. The results of such assessments can be used to prepare for GeoXO ACX data and further the understanding and development of the future instrument operations.

Boryana Efremova↗
NASA NTRS1971

Solar activity prediction

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Slutz, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Examination of the relationship between outgoing infrared window and total longwave fluxes using satellite data

The relationship between narrowband and broadband thermal radiances is explored to determine the accuracy of outgoing longwave radiation derived from narrowband data. Infrared window (10.2-12.2 microns) data from the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite are correlated with longwave (5.0-50.0 microns) data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. A simple quadratic fit between the narrowband and longwave fluxes results in standard errors of 4.4-5.3 percent for data that are matched closely in time and space. The use of matched regional flux data with temporal differences up to 59 minutes yields standard errors of 4.1-5.4 percent. About 30 percent of the error may be attributed to limb darkening and spatial and temporal differences in the matched fluxes. The relationship shows a statistically significant dependence on the relative humidity of the atmosphere above the radiating surface. Although this dependency accounts for only about 1 percent of the standard error, it reduces the monthly mean regional errors by more than 10 percent. Data taken over land produced a relationship slightly different from data taken over water. The differences appear to be primarily due to daytime heating of the land surface.

Minnis, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1994

Suboptimal schemes for atmospheric data assimilation based on the Kalman filter

This work is directed toward approximating the evolution of forecast error covariances for data assimilation. The performance of different algorithms based on simplification of the standard Kalman filter (KF) is studied. These are suboptimal schemes (SOSs) when compared to the KF, which is optimal for linear problems with known statistics. The SOSs considered here are several versions of optimal interpolation (OI), a scheme for height error variance advection, and a simplified KF in which the full height error covariance is advected. To employ a methodology for exact comparison among these schemes, a linear environment is maintained, in which a beta-plane shallow-water model linearized about a constant zonal flow is chosen for the test-bed dynamics. The results show that constructing dynamically balanced forecast error covariances rather than using conventional geostrophically balanced ones is essential for successful performance of any SOS. A posteriori initialization of SOSs to compensate for model - data imbalance sometimes results in poor performance. Instead, properly constructed dynamically balanced forecast error covariances eliminate the need for initialization. When the SOSs studied here make use of dynamically balanced forecast error covariances, the difference among their performances progresses naturally from conventional OI to the KF. In fact, the results suggest that even modest enhancements of OI, such as including an approximate dynamical equation for height error variances while leaving height error correlation structure homogeneous, go a long way toward achieving the performance of the KF, provided that dynamically balanced cross-covariances are constructed and that model errors are accounted for properly. The results indicate that such enhancements are necessary if unconventional data are to have a positive impact.

Todling, Ricardo↗
NASA NTRS1984

Assessment of Thematic Mapper Band-to-band Registration by the Block Correlation Method

The design of the Thematic Mapper (TM) multispectral radiometer makes it susceptible to band-to-band misregistration. To estimate band-to-band misregistration a block correlation method is employed. This method is chosen over other possible techniques (band differencing and flickering) because quantitative results are produced. The method correlates rectangular blocks of pixels from one band against blocks centered on identical pixels from a second band. The block pairs are shifted in pixel increments both vertically and horizontally with respect to each other and the correlation coefficient for each shift position is computed. The displacement corresponding to the maximum correlation is taken as the best estimate of registration error for each block pair. Subpixel shifts are estimated by a bi-quadratic interpolation of the correlation values surrounding the maximum correlation. To obtain statistical summaries for each band combination post processing of the block correlation results performed. The method results in estimates of registration error that are consistent with expectations.

Card, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Statistics of equivalent width data and new oscillator strengths for Si II, Fe II, and Mn II

Equivalent width data from Copernicus and IUE appear to have an exponential, rather than a Gaussian distribution of errors. This is probably because there is one dominant source of error: the assignment of the background continuum shape. The maximum likelihood method of parameter estimation is presented for the case of exponential statistics, in enough generality for application to many problems. The method is applied to global fitting of Si II, Fe II, and Mn II oscillator strengths and interstellar gas parameters along many lines of sight. The new values agree in general with previous determinations but are usually much more tightly constrained. Finally, it is shown that care must be taken in deriving acceptable regions of parameter space because the probability contours are not generally ellipses whose axes are parallel to the coordinate axes.

Van Buren, Dave↗
NASA NTRS1970

Method of statistical filtering

Minimal formula for bounding the cross correlation between a random forcing function and the state error when this correlation is unknown is used in optimal linear filter theory applications. Use of the bound results in overestimation of the estimation-error covariance.

Battin, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Predictability of Ocean Heat Content From Electrical Conductance

Ocean heat content (OHC) is a key climate variable that needs to be monitored to know how Earth's energy imbalance is changing, yet observing OHC remains a challenge. The present study examines whether a depth integral of the ocean's electrical conductivity (“conductance”), which may be inferred from both in situ methods and satellite magnetometers over the global ocean, could help monitor OHC. The ocean's electrical conductivity locally depends on temperature, salinity, and pressure, but it is not as well known how the conductance depends on OHC and ocean salt content. By examining the output of an ocean state estimate shown to agree well with observations that have not been assimilated, this study evaluates the fundamental limitations of using perfectly known ocean conductance to predict OHC, rather than the challenges associated with accounting for observational error. It is found that the ocean's conductance and OHC fields are nonlinearly related but nevertheless highly correlated. A statistical framework tends to predict OHC more accurately than ocean salt content from ocean conductance in regions where conductivity is more sensitive to salinity than temperature. The annually (bidecadally) averaged OHC can be predicted from a combination of conductance and depth‐averaged conductivity ocean fields to within nearly 0.1% (1%) error globally and even more accurately in many poorly observed (e.g., ice‐covered) regions. Practical application of this statistical framework to monitor OHC requires examination of the effect of uncertainties in the observed bathymetry and ocean conductance, which vary with application.

Trossman, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Stochastic-Dynamical Modeling of Space Time Rainfall

The focus of this research work is the elucidation of the physical origins of the observed extreme-rainfall variability over tropical oceans. The quantitative results of this work may be used to establish links between deterministic models of the mesoscale and synoptic scale with statistical descriptions of the temporal variability of local tropical oceanic rainfall. In addition, they may be used to quantify the influence of measurement error in large-scale forcing and cloud scale observations on the accuracy of local rainfall variability inferences, important for hydrologic studies. A simple statistical-dynamical model, suitable for use in repetitive Monte Carlo experiments, is formulated as a diagnostic tool for this purpose. Stochastic processes with temporal structure and parameters estimated from observed large-scale data represent large-scale forcing.

Georgankakos, Konstantine P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

NovaDemux v39.07

This program is a sequence demultiplexer intended primarily for, but not limited to, Illumina sequencing machines. Typically, multiple experiments ("libraries") are pooled together and sequenced at once, with genetic molecules of these libraries tagged with a synthetic DNA "barcode". After sequencing, the data is demultiplexed into one file per library based on the barcode. However, errors in barcode reading cause misassignment and decrease yield. NovaDemux uses advanced statistical methods to maximize yield while minimizing misassignment compared to existing software.

Bushnell, Brian [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characteristics of the IBEX Ribbon and Their Implications for a Source Region Outside the Heliopause

This paper presents a comprehensive exploration of the Interstellar Boundary Explorer energetic neutral atom (ENA) ribbon, focusing on its spatial and temporal variations over 14 yr. Methodological advancements, including a refined map modeling procedure and a new ribbon separation technique with appropriate error propagation, enable a detailed investigation of the ribbon’s features. Utilizing statistically robust metrics, this study reveals details of the ribbon across energy and time. Key findings include energy- and time-dependent variations in flux, angular radius, ribbon profile width, and higher moments. By applying these metrics, we reveal new complexity to the evolution of the ribbon over time, highlighting the nuanced relationship between it and the solar wind. Furthermore, the study examines for the first time the ribbon as it passes through the starboard/heliotail region (Lon EC 120°–180°), revealing properties distinct from other portions of the ribbon. The analysis uncovers an anticorrelation between ribbon width and flux, which provides quantitative support for a multisource ribbon created by a combination of solar wind neutrals that generate a spatiall narrow ribbon component and heliosheath neutrals giving rise to a broad component. Finally, differences in the temporal evolution of the ENA flux at different energies provide additional support that the location of the ribbon source region is beyond the heliopause.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1976

Modeling laser velocimeter signals as triply stochastic Poisson processes

Previous models of laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) systems have not adequately described dual-scatter signals in a manner useful for analysis and simulation of low-level photon-limited signals. At low photon rates, an LDV signal at the output of a photomultiplier tube is a compound nonhomogeneous filtered Poisson process, whose intensity function is another (slower) Poisson process with the nonstationary rate and frequency parameters controlled by a random flow (slowest) process. In the present paper, generalized Poisson shot noise models are developed for low-level LDV signals. Theoretical results useful in detection error analysis and simulation are presented, along with measurements of burst amplitude statistics. Computer generated simulations illustrate the difference between Gaussian and Poisson models of low-level signals.

Mayo, W. T., Jr.↗