SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Surface Source Banking”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

781 records · Page 40

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

A Reductively Stable Electrolyte Realizes Deep Cycling Behavior in Anode‐free Sodium Batteries

For anode‐free sodium batteries to achieve practical consideration, highly reversible chemistries require exceptional ≥99.95% coulombic efficiencies that maintain over prolonged cycling periods. To do so, consumption of this severely limited sodium inventory must be restricted while metal nucleation processes that comprise the in situ formed metal anode are improved. Herein, we describe a fluorine‐free carborane electrolyte that satisfies these criteria by emphasizing reductive stability and weakly coordinating anion behavior as design principles. We find this approach promotes the development of a thin, robust SEI chemistry rich in both organic speciation and boron. The electrolyte described herein exhibits ideal metal nucleation behavior on one‐micron thin carbonaceous current collector surfaces and achieves a metal deposition/stripping efficiency near parity for 400 cycles. This novel anode chemistry is introduced to anode‐free full cell configurations where 87% of the initial discharge capacity is retained after 1000 cycles at 2.0 C. In conclusion, post‐test characterization of deep‐cycled anode‐free cells reveals suppressed capacity fade in these systems is attributed to the chemical stability of the carborane anion.

anode-free↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving Marine Energy Production Through Commercialization of a Low Cost, Drag-Reducing Slippery Coating (CRADA 679 Abstract)

Marine energy capture systems offer great promise for providing clean energy, but they operate in a challenging and dynamic environment and must be optimized to the highest extent possible. Computational studies predict that drag reduction on marine energy and blue economy systems will result in meaningful improvements in energy efficiency. Based on extensive coating experience, PNNL is proposing to bring to market a new drag-reducing coating called Superhydrophobic Lubricant-Infused Drag-Efficient Coating – SLIDE-Coat. PNNL has a deep knowledge base regarding this class of slippery coatings, and we have a group of enthusiastic industry partners who have committed to partnering, conducting field testing, and providing well over 50% cost share. In addition to validating the technology, the team will create a commercialization roadmap to ensure the commercial success of the technology after the government-sponsored two-year program is complete. The main technical goal is to design, manufacture, and experimentally validate a new coating that can reduce hydrodynamic skin friction drag by 20%. The main commercialization goal is to develop a roadmap that identifies activities needed to complete SLIDE-Coat’s development after the conclusion of this project. Year 1 will focus on adaptation and modification of the existing SLIC coating system to optimize drag reduction and assessment and quantification of drag reduction on relevant materials in a laboratory setting. Year 2 will focus on optimizing and demonstrating drag reduction with preferred coatings. The manufacturability, ease of application, adhesion to relevant surfaces, and consistency will be assessed. Quantification of drag reduction on prototype materials in a relevant marine field setting will be executed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fracture‐Resistant and Thermally Insulating Ultrahigh‐Temperature Carbide Foams

Dense ultrahigh‐temperature ceramics (UHTCs) carbides are recognized as potential materials for thermal protection systems (TPS) owing to properties beyond existing structural materials’ capabilities. Recent advances in UHTCs have enabled the development of multiscale porous microstructures. Herein, it is highlighted that the porosity in UHTCs are no longer treated as a defect but as a functional property specifically tailored for thermal insulation. It is a promising solution to design and fabricate bulk UHTC foams via a freeze‐drying (FD) approach followed by calibrated pressureless spark plasma sintering. Herein, monolithic TaC and HfC UHTC foams and their composite show the partial solid–solution formation of (Ta, Hf)C with porosity ≥50%. TaC–HfC foam (≈80–92 N) shows an intermediate load‐bearing capability compared to monolithic TaC (≈120–135 N) and HfC (≈28–35 N) foams, with no evident cracking on the sample surface. The thermal conductivity of partial solid‐solution TaC–HfC foam increases up to fivefold compared to parent UHTC foams. In the results, solid solutions’ efficacy and pores’ unidirectionality in providing thermal insulation to TaC–HfC while maintaining its high‐load bearing capability are illustrated. In conclusion, the developed technique establishes a new paradigm shift in UHTCs, expanding their potential for TPS in extreme environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effect of Fe on Co-Based SiO2Al2O3 Mixed Support Catalyst for Fischer–Tropsch Synthesis in 3D-Printed SS Microchannel Microreactor

This research explores the effect of a composite support of SiO2 and Al2O3 with Fe and Co incorporated as catalysts for Fischer–Tropsch synthesis (FTS) using a 3D-printed stainless steel (SS) microchannel microreactor. Two mesoporous catalysts, FeCo/SiO2Al2O3 and Co/SiO2Al2O3, were synthesized via a one-pot (OP) method and extensively characterized using N2 physisorption, XRD, SEM, TEM, H2-TPR, TGA-DSC, FTIR, and XPS. H2-TPR results revealed that the synthesis method significantly affected the reducibility of metal oxides, thereby influencing the formation of active FTS sites. SEM-EDS and TEM further revealed a well-defined hexagonal matrix with a porous surface morphology and uniform metal ion distribution. FTS reactions, carried out in the 200–350 °C temperature range at 20 bar with a H2/CO molar ratio of 2:1, exhibited the highest activity for FeCo/SiO2Al2O3, with up to 80% CO conversion. Long-term stability was evaluated by monitoring the catalyst performance for 30 h on stream at 320 °C under identical reaction conditions. The catalyst was initially active for the methanation reaction for up to 15 h, after which the selectivity for CH4 declined. Correspondingly, the C4+ selectivity increased after 15 h of time-on-stream, indicating a shift in the product distribution toward longer-chain hydrocarbons. This trend suggests that the catalyst undergoes gradual activation or restructuring under reaction conditions, which enhances chain growth over time. The increase in C4+ products may be attributed to the stabilization of the active sites and suppression of methane or light hydrocarbon formation.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

NASA NTRS2006

Nitrile/Buna N Material Failure Assessment for an O-Ring used on the Gaseous Hydrogen Flow Control Valve (FCV) of the Space Shuttle Main Engine

After the rollout of Space Shuttle Discovery in April 2005 in preparation for return-to-flight, there was a failure of the Orbiter (OV-103) helium signature leak test in the gaseous hydrogen (GH2) system. Leakage was attributed to the Flow Control Valve (FCV) in Main Engine 3. The FCV determined to be the source of the leak for OV-103 is designated as LV-58. The nitrile/Buna N rubber O-ring seal was removed from LV-58, and failure analysis indicated radial cracks providing leak paths in one quadrant. Cracks were eventually found in 6 of 9 FCV O-rings among the three Shuttle Orbiters, though none were as severe as those for LV-58, OV-103. Testing by EM10 at MSFC on all 9 FCV O- rings included: laser dimensional, Shore A hardness and properties from a dynamic mechanical analyzer (DMA) and an Instron tensile machine. The following test data was obtained on the cracked quadrant of the LV-58, OV-103 O-ring: (1) the estimated compression set was only 9.5%, compared to none for the rest of the O-ring; (2) Shore A hardness for the O.D. was higher by almost 4 durometer points than for the rest of the O-ring; and (3) DMA data showed that the storage/elastic modulus E was almost 25% lower than for the rest of the O-ring. Of the 8 FCV O-rings tested on an Instron, 4 yielded tensile strengths that were below the MIL spec requirement of 1350 psi-a likely influence of rubber cracking. Comparisons were made between values of modulus determined by DNA (elastic) and Instron (Young s). Each nitrile/Buna N O-ring used in the FCV conforms to the MIL-P-25732C specification. A number of such O-rings taken from shelf storage at MSFC and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) were used to generate a reference curve of DMA glass transition temperature (Tg) vs. shelf storage time ranging from 8 to 26 years. A similar reference curve of TGA onset temperature (of rubber weight loss) vs. shelf storage time was also generated. The DMA and TGA data for the used FCV O-rings were compared to the reference curves. Correlations were also made between the DMA modulus (at 22 C) and Shore A hardness for all 9 of the FCV O-rings used among the three Shuttle Orbiters. The radial cracking in the FCV O-rings was determined to be due to ozone attack, as nitrile/Buna N rubber is susceptible to such attack. Nitrile/Buna N material under MIL-P25732C should be used in a hydraulic fluid environment to help protect it from cracking. However, the FCV O-rings were used in an air only environment. The FCV design has as much as a 9-mil gap that allows the O.D. of the O-ring to be directly exposed to ozone, pressurized air and some elevated temperatures, accelerating the weathering process that leads to O-ring cracking. Space Shuttle flights will likely not continue past 2010. Therefore, Shuttle management decided to continue using the nitrile/Buna N material for the FCVs, but have each O-ring replaced after 3 years to minimize any chances for crack initiation.

Doug Wingard↗

NASA NTRS2026

Multi-Agent Swarm State of the Art Report

The Next-Generation Multi-Agent Swarm (NGS) Study conducted by NASA’s Ames Research Center for NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) will develop a comprehensive understanding of emerging multi-agent swarm capabilities. The study aims to identify existing swarm capabilities and asses their potential for persistent lunar space situational awareness, surface monitoring, and distributed autonomy demonstrations. A key objective is to inform the design of a next-generation multi-agent swarm that can perform autonomous distributed remote sensing, position, navigation, and timing (PNT) services, automated deployment that leverages autonomy, edge computing, and interoperable networking to enable cooperative operations without the need for immediate human operation. This study will address specific shortfalls identified by STMD, including intelligent multi-agent constellations, autonomy, edge computation, position, navigation, and timing for small spacecraft, small spacecraft propulsion, and space situational awareness (1625, 1438, 1433, 1557, 1431, 1430, 1589). The NASA Ames Mission Design Center (MDC) will provide subject matter expertise to support systems engineering trades, while experts in autonomy and spacecraft swarms in NASA’s Intelligent Systems Division will lead the study and focus on identifying emerging next-generation swarm capabilities. The study objectives include: capturing the current state-of-the-art for multi-agent swarm capabilities, evaluating technologies and creating technology roadmaps, and developing at least one new technology demonstration mission concept. This initial NGS study report surveys the current state of the art in technology areas relevant for the next-generation multi-agent swarm design. Our primary focus is on surveying relevant deployed space systems1, supplemented with selective analysis of relevant proposed missions and technology developments that have yet to fly.

agent↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conformer-Specific Dissociation Dynamics in Dimethyl Methylphosphonate Radical Cation

The dynamics of the dimethyl methylphosphonate (DMMP) radical cation after production by strong field adiabatic ionization have been investigated. Pump-probe experiments using strong field 1300 nm pulses to adiabatically ionize DMMP and a 800 nm non-ionizing probe induce coherent oscillations of the parent ion yield with a period of about 45 fs. The yields of two fragments, PO 2 C 2 H 7 + and PO 2 CH 4 + , oscillate approximately out of phase with the parent ion, but with a slight phase shift relative to each other. We use electronic structure theory and nonadiabatic surface hopping dynamics to understand the underlying dynamics. The results show that while the cation oscillates on the ground state along the P=O bond stretch coordinate, the probe excites population to higher electronic states that can lead to fragments PO 2 C 2 H 7 + and PO 2 CH 4 + . The computational results combined with the experimental observations indicate that the two conformers of DMMP that are populated under experimental conditions exhibit different dynamics after being excited to the higher electronic states of the cation leading to different dissociation products. These results highlight the potential usefulness of these pump-probe measurements as a tool to study conformer-specific dynamics in molecules of biological interest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

15.3% AM1.5G Efficiency GaAs Solar Cells Fabricated via an Epitaxy-Free Process

Here, we report simple and potentially low-cost techniques for creating high-quality n-type gallium arsenide (GaAs) and GaAs p/n junctions and fabricate GaAs p/n junction solar cells. Detailed-balance modeling suggests that 20% AM1.5G efficiency p/n homojunction devices may be possible if the surface doping concentration can be limited to values less than ∼ 5 × 10 19 cm −3 . Our process exploits an open-tube, vapor-phase, deposition-free, zinc diffusion technique for forming p-type layers in melt-grown n-GaAs substrates that results in sheet resistances less than 1 kΩ/$\square$. In addition, we have improved the minority carrier diffusion lengths of melt-grown GaAs from less than one micron to over five microns using an open-tube, vacuum-free, annealing process which reduces the density of EL2 midgap defects. Finally, we have combined these advances to fabricate epitaxy-free, GaAs solar cells with a validated AM1.5G efficiency of 15.3%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2026

Optimization of X-ray Absorbers for High-Resolution TES Detectors in NewATHENA X-IFU

NewATHENA’s X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) uses a large-format array of Transition Edge Sensor (TES) microcalorimeters coupled with absorbers made of gold and bismuth providing 4 eV FWHM resolution up to 7 keV in the 0.2- 12 keV band. X-ray absorbers must be thick enough for photon absorption, maintain low heat capacity for energy resolution, and have good thermalization properties. The X-IFU requires total Quantum Efficiency (QE) of 96%, 87%, and 63% at 1, 7, and 9.5 keV, respectively. Optimal thicknesses are 1.05 µm gold and 5.5 µm bismuth to achieve 0.731 pJ/K at 90 mK and 87% QE at 7 keV. While typical TES absorbers are 3-4 µm thick, producing the required 5.5 µm Bi absorbers via standard electroplating creates enlarged grains and surface roughness. The increased roughness and grain size variability produced with our standard recipe have resulted in instances of 1) low energy spectral tails 2) spectral broadening of the energy resolution and 3) thermal shorts between pixels when a large grain bridges the gap between absorbers. In this study, we have introduced a new fabrication process and altered the morphology of the thick Bi through changes in the electroplating process. The process changes are intended to address all three issues as well as reduce particulate contamination observed on the finished detector arrays.

Absorber↗

NASA NTRS2026

Designing a Propylene-Glycol Coolant Servicer System for Gateway’s Internal Active Thermal Control System

A human spacecraft ATCS—especially one using single-phase coolant loops exposed to cabin atmospheric conditions—requires periodic degassing and refilling to support long-duration missions of 15 to 30 years. During initial fill operations, system maintenance, gas permeation, and quick-disconnect mating or de-mating, small amounts of gas can gradually enter the coolant system over time. This can lead to degraded heat transfer performance, pump cavitation, and potentially pump vapor lock if a significant gas volume accumulates over time. Additionally, system leaks and routine fluid sampling can gradually reduce accumulator volumes to unacceptable levels, requiring periodic refills. In more severe cases, catastrophic changes in fluid composition may necessitate emergency draining, refilling, and degassing to ensure continued system functionality. These risks were identified and mitigated on the ISS ITCS through the development of a dual-membrane degasser ORU and a Fluid Servicer System ORU for coolant refilling. These systems were developed for the fully water-based ISS ITCS Coolant[1]. The Gateway space station, the first permanent human habitat in lunar orbit, uses a propylene-glycol/water coolant mixture, which has significantly different fluid properties compared to pure water. Because microgravity degassing technologies are sensitive to fluid surface tension and viscosity, existing ISS hardware is not suitable for servicing a propylene-glycol-based TCS. Unlike the ISS, the Gateway will operate in a higher-radiation environment and must meet stricter mass constraints due to its location outside of low earth orbit. This Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) flight hardware project aims to develop a lightweight, radiation-resistant Coolant Servicer System (CSS) capable of degassing and refilling Gateway’s propylene-glycol water-based IATCS.

Propylene Glycol Water↗

DOE OSTI2026

Catalytic disproportionation on carbon superstructures enables long-life, high-loading Li–S batteries

Electrocatalysis has been widely explored as an effective strategy to accelerate polysulfide (PS) conversion and suppress the shuttle effect in lithium–sulfur (Li–S) batteries. However, the underlying mechanisms remain elusive, and electrocatalytic reactions are inactive during cell resting. In this work, we reveal and quantitatively analyze a previously unrecognized sulfur reduction route (SRR) driven by catalytic disproportionation at the carbon cathode surface—fundamentally distinct from conventional electrocatalysis. Unlike conventional stepwise pathways, this SRR enables high-order polysulfides (Sₓ²⁻, x = 5–8) to directly convert into S₈ and Li₂S₂, bypassing low-order intermediates. This sulfur-reduction shortcut is systematically elucidated through high-performance liquid chromatography, revealing the intrinsic catalytic contribution of carbon frameworks and the dynamic evolution of PS species. We demonstrate that carbon superstructures (CSS-0.5), assembled from nanosheet subunits with abundant N/O functionalities and interconnected charge-migration channels, synergistically promote this catalytic process. Benefiting from these features, CSS-0.5 delivers superior electrochemical performance under practical conditions, enabling high sulfur loading (6.0 mg cm⁻²) pouch cells with 80.5% capacity retention over 210 cycles. This study provides the first quantitative evidence of electrocatalytic disproportionation in Li–S batteries, offering mechanistic insights and design principles for advanced sulfur cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2026

Designing a Propylene-Glycol Coolant Servicer System for Gateway’s Internal Active Thermal Control System

Propylene Glycol Water↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chromium versus Aluminum: Impact of Nickel Alloy Composition and Interfacial Kinetics on High-Temperature Passivating Oxide Formation

High-temperature corrosion resistance depends critically on the formation of a passivating surface oxide, which is highly sensitive to alloy composition and structure. Such details often elude experimental investigation, and simplified analytical models fail to provide a truly chemical view of passivating oxide evolution. Here, we explicitly compare the fundamental chemistry of Cr and Al as prototypical passivating elements in Ni alloys by directly simulating competing reaction and diffusion processes within the oxide film using kinetic Monte Carlo and density functional theory. We find that the origin and expression of passivating behavior during early-stage thermal oxidation are qualitatively different between the two alloy systems. Ni–Cr alloys feature a sudden onset of passivation associated with a sharp phase transition upon Cr enrichment that directly couples oxidation kinetics to phase transformation behavior. In contrast, Ni–Al alloys display more continuous oxide phase variation with Al enrichment, ultimately resulting in a lower composition threshold for passivation and a thinner passivating layer. In addition, we elucidate the nonobvious role of metal exchange within the alloy near the oxide boundary, which fundamentally alters film composition and passivating behavior. Furthermore, our results have key implications for engineering improved corrosion-resistant alloys, both in terms of compositional variation and processing.

Alloys↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spacecraft Fire Safety Predictions using Verified Saffire Model

A model developed using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) that aimed to determine the effect of a fire in a spacecraft was validated by data collected during the Saffire campaign. The model used inlet and outlet temperatures and CO 2 concentrations of the Saffire payload where fire spread was taking place to determine the amount of heat and combustion products that made it into Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus vehicle. The model was then validated using six remote sensors in various places in the vehicle, as well as a far field device (FFD) in the open zenith section that was representative of average vehicle values. The current work focuses on using the model to predict fire safety scenarios. One simulation aimed to determine the fate of HCl, which sticks to surfaces. The model prediction showed that the HCl was removed from the atmosphere rapidly. This compared well against the FFD data in the Saffire VI campaign event where a bottle of 5% HCl was released into the vehicle. An additional simulation where the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) was shut off once the FFD reached 5 ppm of HCl showed that HCl stayed in the atmosphere considerably longer. Continuing the simulation with the ECLSS activated and after temperatures returned to their initial conditions, resulted in a rapid removal of HCL similar to that observed in the original HCl release scenario model. Finally, a simulation that used the heat release rate from a lithium-ion battery test to determine the effect it would have on a spacecraft was performed. This simulation used a heat addition rate that is considerably higher than what was determined from the burning of solid fuels in the Saffire campaign and hence produced a non-trivial temperature increase in more locations within the vehicle.

Fire Safety↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electrochemical Behavior of Cerium at an Indium Tin-Doped Oxide Electrode in Acidic Media

The redox behavior and speciation of cerium at mesoporous thin films composed of nanoparticles of indium tin-doped oxide (nITO) electrodes were characterized in pH 4.8, 0.1 M acetate buffer and both 0.1 and 1 M HNO 3 using electrochemical techniques and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Anodic deposition of ceria species from Ce(III) to the nITO electrode was achieved under all solvent conditions via spontaneous condensation of electrochemically generated ceric hydroxide species. In 1 M nitric acid, the rate of CeO 2 dissolution is on the same order as CeO 2 deposition, resulting in negligible amounts of CeO 2 electrodeposited at the nITO surface. The cathodic stripping of CeO 2 from the nITO substrate deposited in 0.1 M nitric acid or pH 4.8 acetate buffer follows a 2-step process where Ce(IV)-oxide is initially reduced to an unstable Ce(III)-oxide species that rapidly undergoes acid catalyzed dissolution to yield soluble Ce(III) (aq) . These findings provide a foundation for the pH and anodic potential controlled deposition of CeO 2 thin films to ITO substrates, which can aid in the development of materials composed of ceria. As a result, they can also be used to infer likely analogous actinide redox behavior and speciation at these electrodes.

Cerium↗

DOE OSTI2026

Liquified SO 2 induced solid/cathode electrolyte interphase for lithium ion batteries

Formation of robust solid/cathode electrolyte interphases (S/CEI) is vital for long-term stability and high-performance operation of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), particularly under high voltage regimes. However, engineering electrochemically stable S/CEIs that effectively suppress interfacial side reactions remains a key challenge. Herein, we introduce a liquefied sulfur dioxide (SO 2 )– ionic liquid complex as a fluorine-free multifunctional electrolyte additive for the first time that significantly improves the formation of sulfate/sulfite-rich S/CEI layers at both graphite and NMC811 interfaces. The unique SO 2 -N coordination with a 1,2,4-triazolide-based ionic liquid enables homogeneous SO 2 dissolution, resulting in controlled SO 2 decomposition during the initial electrochemical cycle. This decomposition yields sulfur-rich interphase species that stabilize the electrolyte-electrode interface, reduce impedance growth, and lessen electrolyte decomposition. Electrochemical tests show significantly improved cycle life, reduced polarization, and increased Coulombic efficiency for both anodes and cathodes. XPS confirms the presence of SO 2 -derived surface species that contribute to interfacial stability. In conclusion, this approach highlights a new direction for interphase engineering using liquefied gas additives and opens pathways for sulfur-based S/CEI chemistry in advanced battery systems.

Graphite↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗