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NASA NTRS1983

Diagnosing convective instability using VAS data

The utility of combining visible and various infrared images from the VAS to produce a forecasting tool, that can be available on a near real time basis, to predict severe weather development is shown. Areas where dry air in the midtroposphere overlays substantial moisture at low levels are used to diagnose mesoscale regions that have the potential for being convectively unstable before the onset of severe convection. Specifically, 6.7 micron water vapor imagery, used for isolating regions of substantial midlevel dryness, are combined with images of low level clouds or with split-window low level moisture images to delineate regions that have the potential for convective instability. In areas where scattered low level clouds are present, computer generated, color image combinations are used to isolate those warm, low level clouds that are in potential convectively unstable environments from clouds that exist under a deeply moist atmosphere. In clear regions, the split window technique is used for delineating areas of substantial boundary layer moisture. These images are again computer overlayed by the midlevel dryness to produce a color coded image of potential convective instability.

Petersen, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Super Tuesday Outbreak: Forecast Sensitivities to Single-Moment Microphysics Schemes

Forecast precipitation and radar characteristics are used by operational centers to guide the issuance of advisory products. As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, convective precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being determined explicitly through single- or multi-moment bulk water microphysics routines. Gains in forecasting skill are expected through improved simulation of clouds and their microphysical processes. High resolution model grids and advanced parameterizations are now available through steady increases in computer resources. As with any parameterization, their reliability must be measured through performance metrics, with errors noted and targeted for improvement. Furthermore, the use of these schemes within an operational framework requires an understanding of limitations and an estimate of biases so that forecasters and model development teams can be aware of potential errors. The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) Spring Experiments have produced daily, high resolution forecasts used to evaluate forecast skill among an ensemble with varied physical parameterizations and data assimilation techniques. In this research, high resolution forecasts of the 5-6 February 2008 Super Tuesday Outbreak are replicated using the NSSL configuration in order to evaluate two components of simulated convection on a large domain: sensitivities of quantitative precipitation forecasts to assumptions within a single-moment bulk water microphysics scheme, and to determine if these schemes accurately depict the reflectivity characteristics of well-simulated, organized, cold frontal convection. As radar returns are sensitive to the amount of hydrometeor mass and the distribution of mass among variably sized targets, radar comparisons may guide potential improvements to a single-moment scheme. In addition, object-based verification metrics are evaluated for their utility in gauging model performance and QPF variability.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

L' AND M' Photometry Of Ultracool Dwarfs

We have compiled L' (3.4-4.1 microns) and M' (4.6- 4.8 microns) photometry of 63 single and binary M, L, and T dwarfs obtained at the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope using the Mauna Kea Observatory filter set. This compilation includes new L' measurements of eight L dwarfs and 13 T dwarfs and new M' measurements of seven L dwarfs, five T dwarfs, and the M1 dwarf Gl 229A. These new data increase by factors of 0. 6 and 1.6, respectively, the numbers of ultracool dwarfs T (sub eff) </= 2400 K for which L' and M' measurements have been reported. We compute L(sub bol), BC(sub K), and T(sub eff) for 42 dwarfs whose flux-calibrated JHK spectra, L' photometry, and trigonometric parallaxes are available, and we estimate these quantities for nine other dwarfs whose parallaxes and flux-calibrated spectra have been obtained. BC(SUB K) is a well-behaved function of near-infrared spectral type with a dispersion of approx. 0.1 mag for types M6-T5 it is significantly more scattered for types T5-T9. T (sub eff) declines steeply and monotonically for types M6-L7 and T4-T9, but it is nearly constant at approx. 1450 K for types L7-T4 with assumed ages of approx. 3 Gyr. This constant T(sub eff) is evidenced by nearly unchanging values of L'-M' between types L6 and T3. It also supports recent models that attribute the changing near-infrared luminosities and spectral features across the L-T transition to the rapid migration, disruption, and/or thinning of condensate clouds over a narrow range of T(sub eff). The L' and M' luminosities of early-T dwarfs do not exhibit the pronounced humps or inflections previously noted in l through K bands, but insufficient data exist for types L6-T5 to assert that M(Sub L') and M(sub M') are strictly monotonic within this range of typew. We compare the observed K, L', and M' luminosities of L and T dwarfs in our sample with those predicted by precipitation-cloud-free models for varying surface gravities and sedimentation efficiencies.

COOL STARS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Machine Learning Based Aerosol and Ocean Color Joint Retrieval Algorithm for Multiangle Polarimeters over Coastal Waters

NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission, recently launched in February 2024, carries two multiangle polarimeters (MAPs): the UMBC Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (HARP2) and SRON Spectropolarimeter for Planetary Exploration One (SPEXone). Measurements from these MAPs will greatly advance ocean ecosystem and aerosol studies as their measurements contain rich information on microphysical properties of aerosols and hydrosols. The Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (MAPOL) joint retrieval algorithm has been developed to retrieve aerosol and ocean color information, which uses a vector radiative transfer (RT) model as the forward model. The RT model is computationally expensive, which makes processing a large amount of data challenging. FastMAPOL was developed to expedite retrieval using neural networks to replace the RT forward models. As a prototype study, FastMAPOL was initially limited to open ocean applications where the ocean Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs) were parameterized in terms of one parameter: chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla). In this study we further expand the FastMAPOL joint retrieval algorithm to incorporate NN based forward models for coastal waters, which use multi-parameter bio-optical models. In addition, aerosols are represented by six components, i.e., fine mode non absorbing insoluble (FNAI), brown carbon (BrC), black carbon (BC), fine mode non absorbing soluble (FNAS), sea salt (SS) and non-spherical dust (Dust). Sea salt and dust are coarse mode aerosols, while the other components are in the fine mode. The sizes and spectral refractive indices are fixed for each aerosol component, while their abundances are retrievable. The multi-parameter bio-optical model and aerosol components are chosen to represent the coastal marine environment. The retrieval algorithm is applied to synthetic measurements in three different configurations ofMAPs in the PACE mission: HARP2 observations only, SPEXone observations only and combined HARP2 and SPEXone observations. The retrieval results from synthetic measurements show that for aerosol retrieval the SPEXone-only configuration works equally well with the HAPR2-only configuration. On the other hand, for ocean color retrieval the SPEXone instrument provides better information due to its larger spectral coverage. For the surface parameters (wind speed), HARP2 measurements provide better information due to its wide field of view. Combined measurement configuration HARP2+SPEXone performed the best to retrieve all aerosol, ocean color and surface parameters. We also studied the impact of sun glint to aerosol and ocean color retrievals. The retrieval test revealed that wind speed and absorbing aerosol retrieval improves significantly when including measurements at glint geometries. Furthermore, the retrieval algorithm is equipped with modules for atmospheric correction and bidirectional reflectance distribution (BRDF) correction to obtain the remote sensing reflectance, which enables ocean biogeochemistry studies using the PACE polarimeter data.

PACE↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Comparison of Visual Statistics for the Image Enhancement of FORESITE Aerial Images with Those of Major Image Classes

Aerial images from the Follow-On Radar, Enhanced and Synthetic Vision Systems Integration Technology Evaluation (FORESITE) flight tests with the NASA Langley Research Center's research Boeing 757 were acquired during severe haze and haze/mixed clouds visibility conditions. These images were enhanced using the Visual Servo (VS) process that makes use of the Multiscale Retinex. The images were then quantified with visual quality metrics used internally with the VS. One of these metrics, the Visual Contrast Measure, has been computed for hundreds of FORESITE images, and for major classes of imaging--terrestrial (consumer), orbital Earth observations, orbital Mars surface imaging, NOAA aerial photographs, and underwater imaging. The metric quantifies both the degree of visual impairment of the original, un-enhanced images as well as the degree of visibility improvement achieved by the enhancement process. The large aggregate data exhibits trends relating to degree of atmospheric visibility attenuation, and its impact on limits of enhancement performance for the various image classes. Overall results support the idea that in most cases that do not involve extreme reduction in visibility, large gains in visual contrast are routinely achieved by VS processing. Additionally, for very poor visibility imaging, lesser, but still substantial, gains in visual contrast are also routinely achieved. Further, the data suggest that these visual quality metrics can be used as external standalone metrics for establishing performance parameters.

Johnson, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Spacelab 1 experiments on interactions of an energetic electron beam with neutral gas

An unusual signature of return current and spacecraft charging potential was observed during the Spacelab 1 mission launched on November 28, 1983. The phenomenon occurred during neutral gas releases from the SEPAC (Space Experiments with Particle Accelerators) magnetoplasma-dynamic arcjet (MPD) concurrent with firings of the PICPAB (Phenomena Induced by Charged Particle Beams) electron gun and was recorded by the instruments of the SEPAC diagnostic package (DGP). Data from the langmuir probe, floating probes, neutral gas pressure gauge, and the plasma wave probes are reported. As the dense neutral gas was released, the return current measured by the langmuir probe changed from positive to negative and a positive potential relative to the spacecraft was measured by the floating probe. The anomalous return current is believed to be attributable to secondary electron fluxes escaping from the spacecraft, and the unusual charging situation is attributed to the formation of a double-layer structure between a hot plasma cloud localized to the MPD and the spacecraft. The charging scenario is supported by a computer simulation.

Marshall, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Barium Nitrate Raman Laser Development for Remote Sensing of Ozone

In order to understand the impact of anthropogenic emissions upon the earth's environment, scientists require remote sensing techniques which are capable of providing range-resolved measurements of clouds, aerosols, and the concentrations of several chemical constituents of the atmosphere. The differential absorption lidar (DIAL) technique is a very promising method to measure concentration profiles of chemical species such as ozone and water vapor as well as detect the presence of aerosols and clouds. If a suitable DIAL system could be deployed in space, it would provide a global data set of tremendous value. Such systems, however, need to be compact, reliable, and very efficient. In order to measure atmospheric gases with the DIAL technique, the laser transmitter must generate suitable on-line and off-line wavelength pulse pairs. The on-line pulse is resonant with an absorption feature of the species of interest. The off-line pulse is tuned so that it encounters significantly less absorption. The relative backscattered power for the two pulses enables the range-resolved concentration to be computed. Preliminary experiments at NASA LaRC suggested that the solid state Raman shifting material, Ba(NO3)2, could be utilized to produce these pulse pairs. A Raman oscillator pumped at 532 nm by a frequency-doubled Nd:YAG laser can create first Stokes laser output at 563 nm and second Stokes output at 599 nm. With frequency doublers, UV output at 281 nm and 299 nm can be subsequently obtained. This all-solid state system has the potential to be very efficient, compact, and reliable. Raman shifting in Ba(NO3)2, has previously been performed in both the visible and the infrared. The first Raman oscillator in the visible region was investigated in 1986 with the configurations of plane-plane and unstable telescopic resonators. However, most of the recent research has focused on the development of infrared sources for eye-safe lidar applications.

McCray, Christopher L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Cloud Structure and Cloud-Radiation Interaction: From Smallest Observable Scales (Less than 10 m) to GCM Grid Scales (More than 100 km)

In this presentation we review the fractal nature of internal cloud structure from cm- to km-scales as captured by in-situ probes during long horizontal penetrations by aircraft. We uncover the non-Poissonian spatial distribution of cloud droplets at submeter scales and confirm scale-invariant behavior for large scales. Based on these structural characteristics, we generate simple fractal cloud models that reproduce statistical scaling properties of real clouds. These stochastic models represent a link between nonlinear science, in general, and cloud-radiation interaction, in particular. Next we run three-dimensional radiative transfer computations on these synthetic fractal clouds and compare the structure of the resulting radiation fields with the known structure of the cloud model and with satellite images of real clouds. The different behaviors observed for small and large-scale variabilities will be discussed in detail. We find that while the large-scale fluctuations of the resulting radiation fields resemble those in the original scale-invariant cloud structure, the radiation at small scales is much smoother than its cloud liquid water counterpart. This violates scale-invariance and produces a scale-break at 0.2-0.5 km that is clearly observed in high-resolution satellite data such as from Landsat. Finally, we show how radiative transfer Green function theory in the photon diffusion limit explains (and predicts) the above phenomena of "radiative smoothing."

Marshak, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2004

Simple Models of the Spatial Distribution of Cloud Radiative Properties for Remote Sensing Studies

This project aimed to assess the degree to which estimates of three-dimensional cloud structure can be inferred from a time series of profiles obtained at a point. The work was motivated by the desire to understand the extent to which high-frequency profiles of the atmosphere (e.g. ARM data streams) can be used to assess the magnitude of non-plane parallel transfer of radiation in thc atmosphere. We accomplished this by performing an observing system simulation using a large-eddy simulation and a Monte Carlo radiative transfer model. We define the 3D effect as the part of the radiative transfer that isn't captured by one-dimensional radiative transfer calculations. We assess the magnitude of the 3D effect in small cumulus clouds by using a fine-scale cloud model to simulate many hours of cloudiness over a continental site. We then use a Monte Carlo radiative transfer model to compute the broadband shortwave fluxes at the surface twice, once using the complete three-dimensional radiative transfer F(sup 3D), and once using the ICA F (sup ICA); the difference between them is the 3D effect given.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2022

Satellite-derived cyanobacteria frequency and magnitude in headwaters & near-dam reservoir surface waters of the Southern U.S.

Reservoirs are dominant features of the modern hydrologic landscape and provide vital services. However, the unique morphology of reservoirs can create suitable conditions for excessive algae growth and associated cyanobacteria blooms in shallow in-flow reservoir locations by providing warm water environments with relatively high nutrient inputs, deposition, and nutrient storage. Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) are costly water management issues and bloom recurrence is associated with economic costs and negative impacts to human, animal, and environmental health. As cyanoHAB occurrence varies substantially within different regions of a water body, understanding in-lake cyanoHAB spatial dynamics is essential to guide reservoir monitoring and mitigate potential public exposure to cyanotoxins. Cloud-based computational processing power and high temporal frequency of satellites enables advanced pixel-based spatial analysis of cyanoHAB frequency and quantitative assessment of reservoir headwater in-flows compared to near-dam surface waters of individual reservoirs. Additionally, extensive spatial coverage of satellite imagery allows for evaluation of spatial trends across many dozens of reservoir sites. Surface water cyanobacteria concentrations for sixty reservoirs in the southern U.S. were estimated using 300m resolution European Space Agency (ESA) Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) satellite sensor for a five year period (May 2016–April 2021). Of the reservoirs studied, spatial analysis of OLCI data revealed 98% had more frequent cyanoHAB occurrence above the concentration of >100,000 cells/mL in headwaters compared to near-dam surface waters (P < 0.001). Headwaters exhibited greater seasonal variability with more frequent and higher magnitude cyanoHABs occurring mid-summer to fall. Examination of reservoirs identified extremely high concentration cyanobacteria events (>1,000,000 cells/mL) occurring in 70% of headwater locations while only 30% of near-dam locations exceeded this threshold. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests of cyanoHAB magnitudes using paired-observations (dates with observations in both a reservoir's headwater and near-dam locations) confirmed significantly higher concentrations in headwater versus near-dam locations (p < 0.001).

cyanobacteria↗
NASA NTRS2022

Satellite-derived Cyanobacteria Frequency and Magnitude in Headwaters & Near-dam Reservoir Surface Waters of the Southern U.S.

Reservoirs are dominant features of the modern hydrologic landscape and provide vital services. However, the unique morphology of reservoirs can create suitable conditions for excessive algae growth and associated cyanobacteria blooms in shallow in-flow reservoir locations by providing warm water environments with relatively high nutrient inputs, deposition, and nutrient storage. Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHAB) are costly water management issues and bloom recurrence is associated with economic costs and negative impacts to human, animal, and environmental health. As cyanoHAB occurrence varies substantially within different regions of a water body, understanding in-lake cyanoHAB spatial dynamics is essential to guide reservoir monitoring and mitigate potential public exposure to cyanotoxins. Cloud-based computational processing power and high temporal frequency of satellites enables advanced pixel-based spatial analysis of cyanoHAB frequency and quantitative assessment of reservoir headwater in-flows compared to near-dam surface waters of individual reservoirs. Additionally, extensive spatial coverage of satellite imagery allows for evaluation of spatial trends across many dozens of reservoir sites. Surface water cyanobacteria concentrations for sixty reservoirs in the southern U.S. were estimated using 300 m resolution European Space Agency (ESA) Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) satellite sensor for a five year period (May 2016–April 2021). Of the reservoirs studied, spatial analysis of OLCI data revealed 98% had more frequent cyanoHAB occurrence above the concentration of >100,000 cells/mL in headwaters compared to near-dam surface waters (P < 0.001). Headwaters exhibited greater seasonal variability with more frequent and higher magnitude cyanoHABs occurring mid-summer to fall. Examination of reservoirs identified extremely high concentration cyanobacteria events (>1,000,000 cells/mL) occurring in 70% of headwater locations while only 30% of near-dam locations exceeded this threshold. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests of cyanoHAB magnitudes using paired-observations (dates with observations in both a reservoir's headwater and near-dam locations) confirmed significantly higher concentrations in headwater versus near-dam locations (p < 0.001).

Amber R Ignatius↗
NASA NTRS2005

Principal Component-Based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) for Hyperspectral Sensors: Theoretical Concept - Part I

Modern infrared satellite sensors such as Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer (CrIS), Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES), Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) are capable of providing high spatial and spectral resolution infrared spectra. To fully exploit the vast amount of spectral information from these instruments, super fast radiative transfer models are needed. This paper presents a novel radiative transfer model based on principal component analysis. Instead of predicting channel radiance or transmittance spectra directly, the Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) predicts the Principal Component (PC) scores of these quantities. This prediction ability leads to significant savings in computational time. The parameterization of the PCRTM model is derived from properties of PC scores and instrument line shape functions. The PCRTM is very accurate and flexible. Due to its high speed and compressed spectral information format, it has great potential for super fast one-dimensional physical retrievals and for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) large volume radiance data assimilation applications. The model has been successfully developed for the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Airborne Sounder Testbed - Interferometer (NAST-I) and AIRS instruments. The PCRTM model performs monochromatic radiative transfer calculations and is able to include multiple scattering calculations to account for clouds and aerosols.

Liu, Xu↗
NASA NTRS2008

1D-VAR Retrieval Using Superchannels

Since modern ultra-spectral remote sensors have thousands of channels, it is difficult to include all of them in a 1D-var retrieval system. We will describe a physical inversion algorithm, which includes all available channels for the atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface parameter retrievals. Both the forward model and the inversion algorithm compress the channel radiances into super channels. These super channels are obtained by projecting the radiance spectra onto a set of pre-calculated eigenvectors. The forward model provides both super channel properties and jacobian in EOF space directly. For ultra-spectral sensors such as Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the NPOESS Airborne Sounder Testbed Interferometer (NAST), a compression ratio of more than 80 can be achieved, leading to a significant reduction in computations involved in an inversion process. Results will be shown applying the algorithm to real IASI and NAST data.

Liu, Xu↗
NASA NTRS2011

Contributions to Climate Research Using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 Products

This paper compares recent spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLRCLR (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using CERES and AIRS observations over the time period September 2002 through June 2010. We find excellent agreement in OLR anomaly time series of both data sets in almost every detail, down to the 1 x 1 spatial grid point level. This extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper then examines anomaly time series of AIRS derived products over the extended time period September 2002 through April 2011. We show that OLR anomalies during this period are closely in phase with those of an El Nino index, and that recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR and OLR(sub CLR) are a result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. This relationship can be explained by temporal changes of the distribution of mid-tropospheric water vapor and cloud cover in two spatial regions that are in direct response to El Nino/La Nina activity which occurs outside these spatial regions

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2014

Spinoff 2013

Topics covered include: Innovative Software Tools Measure Behavioral Alertness; Miniaturized, Portable Sensors Monitor Metabolic Health; Patient Simulators Train Emergency Caregivers; Solar Refrigerators Store Life-Saving Vaccines; Monitors Enable Medication Management in Patients' Homes; Handheld Diagnostic Device Delivers Quick Medical Readings; Experiments Result in Safer, Spin-Resistant Aircraft; Interfaces Visualize Data for Airline Safety, Efficiency; Data Mining Tools Make Flights Safer, More Efficient; NASA Standards Inform Comfortable Car Seats; Heat Shield Paves the Way for Commercial Space; Air Systems Provide Life Support to Miners; Coatings Preserve Metal, Stone, Tile, and Concrete; Robots Spur Software That Lends a Hand; Cloud-Based Data Sharing Connects Emergency Managers; Catalytic Converters Maintain Air Quality in Mines; NASA-Enhanced Water Bottles Filter Water on the Go; Brainwave Monitoring Software Improves Distracted Minds; Thermal Materials Protect Priceless, Personal Keepsakes; Home Air Purifiers Eradicate Harmful Pathogens; Thermal Materials Drive Professional Apparel Line; Radiant Barriers Save Energy in Buildings; Open Source Initiative Powers Real-Time Data Streams; Shuttle Engine Designs Revolutionize Solar Power; Procedure-Authoring Tool Improves Safety on Oil Rigs; Satellite Data Aid Monitoring of Nation's Forests; Mars Technologies Spawn Durable Wind Turbines; Programs Visualize Earth and Space for Interactive Education; Processor Units Reduce Satellite Construction Costs; Software Accelerates Computing Time for Complex Math; Simulation Tools Prevent Signal Interference on Spacecraft; Software Simplifies the Sharing of Numerical Models; Virtual Machine Language Controls Remote Devices; Micro-Accelerometers Monitor Equipment Health; Reactors Save Energy, Costs for Hydrogen Production; Cameras Monitor Spacecraft Integrity to Prevent Failures; Testing Devices Garner Data on Insulation Performance; Smart Sensors Gather Information for Machine Diagnostics; Oxygen Sensors Monitor Bioreactors and Ensure Health and Safety; Vision Algorithms Catch Defects in Screen Displays; and Deformable Mirrors Capture Exoplanet Data, Reflect Lasers.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1985

The Landsat thematic mapper World Data Base

A World Data Base of potential thematic mapper (TM) scenes was developed to aid in acquisition planning. The World Data Base contains geopolitical, geographic and economic regions along with a format that enables users to find the satellite day, sun angle and cloud cover probability for any month of the year. Scenes that have been acquired by TM and have an average cloud cover of 30 percent of less from July 1982 when TM was launched until the Landsat system was taken over by NOAA in September 1984 are also in the World Data Base. Processed data are referenced in maps and data bases at EROS Data Center; however, a large number of acquistions have never been processed and therefore are not accessible. The World Data Base enables the rapid location of scenes and areas with the least effort making it invaluable in TM scheduling. Users of TM data can use the World Data Base to determine if scenes of interest have been acquired, the acquisition date, and if scenes have been processed to computer-compatible tape (CCT). These uses of the World Data Base make it a valuable tool in the acquisition and location of TM scenes.

Ludwig, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗
NASA NTRS1993

Cirrus microphysics observations made during FIRE 2: Small particles, high concentrations, and probe comparisons

Aircraft observations of cirrus cloud microphysics were made near Coffeyville, Kansas during Nov. and Dec. 1991. Cloud microphysics measurements were made using both a PMS 2DC probe and an ice particle replicator, both were mounted on the UND Citation aircraft. Intercomparison is made of the size, area, and ice mass spectra determined from these probes. The PMS 2DC undercounts particles for D less than 70 microns and the replicator oversizes particles for D greater than 150 microns, at least when column rosettes are encountered. High concentrations of particles with D less than 50 microns are noted in selected portions of the 22 Nov. 91 replicator data set. Relations between the maximum dimension of a crystal and its shadow area (known as area dimensional relationships) are computed from the PMS data. Area and mass dimensional relationships are used to give a simple analytical expression for computing the wavelength dependent absorption coefficient averaged over a size bin. Calculations based upon the replicator data show that crystals with D less than 50 microns contribute significantly to the solar extinction and infrared absorption coefficients during some time intervals.

Arnott, W. P.↗