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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Discovery of Active Nematic Hydrodynamics

Active nematics can be modeled using phenomenological continuum theories that account for the dynamics of the nematic director and fluid velocity through partial differential equations (PDEs). While these models provide a statistical description of the experiments, the relevant terms in the PDEs and their parameters are usually identified indirectly. We adapt a recently developed method to automatically identify optimal continuum models for active nematics directly from spatio-temporal data, via sparse regression of the coarse-grained fields onto generic low order PDEs. After extensive benchmarking, we apply the method to experiments with microtubule-based active nematics, finding a surprisingly minimal description of the system. Furthermore, our approach can be generalized to gain insights into active gels, microswimmers, and diverse other experimental active matter systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leading Energy Analysis: Data-Driven Insights That Power Our Energy Future

Energy analysts at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) use a broad set of expertise and cutting-edge tools to capture the complexities of our interconnected energy system. Decision-makers rely on these insights to drive cost savings, enhance grid reliability, support long-term innovation, and bolster America's energy workforce and global competitiveness. This fact sheet highlights some of NREL's high-impact analyses, data, and tools, largely focusing on power grid analysis.

data↗
DOE OSTI2024

Maximizing energy efficiency in wastewater treatment plants: A data-driven approach for waste heat recovery and an economic analysis using Organic Rankine Cycle and thermal energy storage

Maximizing energy efficiency through waste heat recovery (WHR) processes is crucial for sustainable and ecofriendly operations across multiple industries, notably in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). This work proposes a comprehensive approach for assessing the WHR feasibility in WWTPs, structured in two main objectives. Firstly, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is developed to accurately predict WHR based on operational data, including biogas temperature, biogas pressure, daily production in kWh, and WHR values in kWh th . The second objective focuses on economically evaluating the WHR feasibility based on the estimated WHR values obtained by the ANN model, and then realistically assessing the economic feasibility of integrating the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) and Seasonal Thermal Energy Storage (STES) systems. With an application to the As-Samra WWTP located in Jordan, the developed ANN model demonstrates promising results in the validation phase, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2206 kWh/day, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1674 kWh/day, and an R-squared (R 2 ) value of 68%. On the other hand, the economic analysis reveals that an optimal ORC system of 412.14 kW e capacity yields a Net Present Value (NPV) of 2.09 million US dollars, a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 0.0749 USD/kWh, a Payback Period (PBP) of 4.8 years, and annual revenues of 428 kUSD. This work also investigates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating ORC-STES. Results indicate that the LCOE and PBP are highly affected by the ORC's capital cost, and integrating STES increases the LCOE to 0.0824 USD/kWh, rendering its integration with ORC infeasible. In conclusion, this study aims to advance the understanding and application of WHR in WWTPs, paving the way for more efficient and sustainable practices in the field.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-Layered Distributed Data-Driven Framework for Enhanced Smart Grid Cyber-Physical Security

Smart Grid (SG) research and development has drawn much attention from academia, industry and government due to the great impact it will have on society, economics and the environment. Securing the SG is a considerably significant challenge due the increased dependency on communication networks to assist in physical process control, exposing them to various cyber-threats. In addition to attacks that change measurement values using False Data Injection (FDI) techniques, attacks on the communication network may disrupt the power system's real-time operation by intercepting messages, or by flooding the communication channels with unnecessary data. Addressing these attacks requires a cross-layer approach. In this paper a cross-layered strategy is presented, called Cross-Layer Ensemble CorrDet with Adaptive Statistics(CECD-AS), which integrates the detection of faulty SG measurement data as well as inconsistent network inter-arrival times and transmission delays for more reliable and accurate anomaly detection and attack interpretation. Numerical results show that CECD-AS can detect multiple False Data Injections, Denial of Service (DoS) and Man In The Middle (MITM) attacks with a high F1-score compared to current approaches that only use SG measurement data for detection such as the traditional physics-based State Estimation, Ensemble CorrDet with Adaptive Statistics strategy and other machine learning classification-based detection schemes.

cyber-physical security↗
DOE OSTI2018

Data-Driven Selection of Tessellation Models Describing Polycrystalline Microstructures

Tessellation models have proven to be useful for the geometric description of grain microstructures in polycrystalline materials. With the use of a suitable tessellation model, the complex morphology of grains can be represented by a small number of parameters assigned to each grain, which not only entails a significant reduction in complexity, but also facilitates the investigation of certain geometric features of the microstructure. However, for a given set of microstructural data, the choice of a particular geometric model is traditionally based on researcher intuition. The model should provide a sufficiently good approximation to the data, while keeping the number of parameters small. In this paper, we discuss general aspects of the process of model selection and suggest several criteria for selecting an appropriate candidate from a certain set of tessellation models. The choice of candidate represents a trade-off between accuracy and complexity of the model. Here, the selected model is used solely to approximate given data samples, but it also provides guidance for developing stochastic tessellation models and generating virtual microstructures. Model fitting is carried out by simulated annealing, applied in a consistent manner to twelve different tessellation models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Approach to Real-World Degradation of Backsheets

The objectives of this project are as follows: • The population behavior of fielded modules in various conditions of use • Predictions of materials in specific climatic zones • Understanding of a module’s local environment in the field on its degradation It aims to understand how and what backsheet materials of photovoltaic modules degrade in the real world field. • Field Survey Protocol This project is started from the protocol, because all the data, information, domain knowledge are from experience of the real world field surveys, which is based on the protocol. The Protocol is explored from the experience of the field survey observations. With the increasing of the field surveys, it is refined for three versions, which are Task 1.0 (Section 3.1), Task 6.0 (Section 3.6), Task 10.0 (Section 3.10) respectively. It includes a document and a training video, which is able to direct other teams to follow the same procedure with the sites surveyed during this project. The documents include the detailed information but is not limited to the terminology definition, instruments SOP, preparation items for the surveys, form for the data collections, the order of the information collection. The final version of the protocol can be found at Appendix A, see Section 5. Additional, It can also be found at Open Science Framework (OSF), see Section 3.18 for detail. • Written Waiver Request Before staring the field surveys, the request of the waiver for international surveys is completed, because the limitation of climate zone in the United States, see Appendix B in Section 6 for the request documents. Unfortunately, only 1 international site from Taiwan, China can be finished, due to the COVID-19. • Field Survey According to the protocol we built in Section 3.1, 3.6 and 3.10, 41 sites have been surveyed across seven different climate zones (Cfa, Csa, Csb, BSk, Dfa, Dfb, Am). A variety of materials, including Polyethylene Naphthalate (PEN), Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET), Polyvinyl Fluoride (PVF), Polyvinylidene Fluoride (PVDF), Acrylic PVDF, Fluoroethylene Vinyl Ether (FEVE), and Glass, were identified. These sites are located in various states including California, South Carolina, New Mexico, Maryland, Ohio, Tennessee, Florida, Massachusetts, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, and Taiwan, Republic of China. The ages of the sites ranged from 2 - 38 years in service and the field size varied from 1 MW - 25 MW. All requirements for the modeling have been satisfied. Some observations like ’Edge Effect’ for the rows and Junction box heating will also be a useful knowledge to build the model. Section 3.7 provides detailed information on the sites visited during this reporting period.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven cyber-attack detection for photovoltaic systems: A transfer learning approach

With increasing exposure to software-based sensing and control, power systems are facing higher risks of cyber/physical attacks. Here, to ensure system stability and minimize the potential economic losses, it is imperative to monitor the operating states and detect those attacks at the early stage. In this paper, a transfer learning method is proposed to detect cyber-attacks in photovoltaic (PV) systems with much less training data. First of all, two PV systems with a different number of PV inverters and power ratings are analyzed and their attack models are studied. Next, an attack detection Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model was trained with rich amount of data from PV #1. Then, transfer learning was proposed to transfer the well-trained features from PV #1 to PV #2. Lastly, the attack detection model on PV #2 was trained based on the transferred CNN model. The experiment results show that the proposed transfer learning method achieves better accuracy and a faster convergence rate with a much less training dataset than conventional deep learning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Data-Driven Residential Load Modeling and Validation in GridLAB-D

Accurately characterizing the impacts of high penetrations of distributed energy resources (DER) on the electric distribution system has driven modeling methods from traditional static snap shots, often representing a critical point in time (e.g., summer peak load), to quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulations capturing all the effects of variable DER, associated controls and hence, impacts on the distribution system over a given time period. Unfortunately, the high time resolution DER source and load data required for model inputs is often scarce or non-existent. This paper presents work performed within the GridLAB-D model environment to synthesize, calibrate, and validate 1-second residential load models based on measured transformer loads and physics-based models suitable for QSTS electric distribution system modeling. The modeling and validation approach taken was to create a typical GridLAB-D model home that, when replicated to represent multiple diverse houses on a single transformer, creates a statistically similar load to a measured load for a given weather input. The model homes are constructed to represent the range of actual homes on an instrumented transformer: square footage, thermal integrity, heating and cooling system definition as well as realistic occupancy schedules. House model calibration and validation was performed using the distribution transformer load data and corresponding weather. The modeled loads were found to be similar to the measured loads for four evaluation metrics: 1) daily average energy, 2) daily average and standard deviation of power, 3) power spectral density, and 4) load shape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2002

Investigation and Development of Data-Driven D-Region Model for HF Systems Impacts

Space Environment Corporation (SEC) and RP Consultants (RPC) are to develop and validate a weather-capable D region model for making High Frequency (HF) absorption predictions in support of the HF communications and radar communities. The weather-capable model will assimilate solar and earth space observations from NASA satellites. The model will account for solar-induced impacts on HF absorption, including X-rays, Solar Proton Events (SPE's), and auroral precipitation. The work plan includes: I . Optimize D-region model to quickly obtain ion and electron densities for proper HF absorption calculations. 2. Develop indices-driven modules for D-region ionization sources for low, mid, & high latitudes including X-rays, cosmic rays, auroral precipitation, & solar protons. (Note: solar spectrum & auroral modules already exist). 3. Setup low-cost monitors of existing HF beacons and add one single-frequency beacon. 4. Use PENEX HF-link database with HF monitor data to validate D-region/HF absorption model using climatological ionization drivers. 5. Develop algorithms to assimilate NASA satellite data of solar, interplanetary, and auroral observations into ionization source modules. 6. Use PENEX HF-link & HF-beacon data for skill score comparison of assimilation versus climatological D-region/HF absorption model. Only some satellites are available for the PENEX time period, thus, HF-beacon data is necessary. 7. Use HF beacon monitors to develop HF-link data assimilation algorithms for regional improvement to the D-region/HF absorption model.

Eccles, J. V.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Data-Driven Mathematical Modeling of the Effect of Particle Size Distribution on the Transitory Reaction Kinetics of Hot Metal Desulfurization

The aim of this work was to develop a prediction model for hot metal desulfurization. More specifically, the study aimed at finding a set of explanatory variables that are mandatory in prediction of the kinetics of the lime-based transitory desulfurization reaction and evolution of the sulfur content in the hot metal. The prediction models were built through multivariable analysis of process data and phenomena-based simulations. The model parameters for the suggested model types are identified by solving multivariable least-squares cost functions with suitable solution strategies. One conclusion we arrived at was that in order to accurately predict the rate of desulfurization, it is necessary to know the particle size distribution of the desulfurization reagent. It was also observed that a genetic algorithm can be successfully applied in numerical parameter identification of the proposed model type. It was found that even a very simplistic parameterized expression for the first-order rate constant provides more accurate prediction for the end content of sulfur compared to more complex models, if the data set applied for the modeling contains the adequate information.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating magnetic van der Waals materials using data-driven approaches

In this work, we investigate magnetic monolayers of the form A i A ii B 4 X 8 based on the well-known intrinsic topological magnetic van der Waals (vdW) material MnBi 2 Te 4 (MBT) using first-principles calculations and machine learning techniques. We select an initial subset of structures to calculate the thermodynamic properties, electronic properties, such as the band gap, and magnetic properties, such as the magnetic moment and magnetic order using density functional theory (DFT). Data analytics approaches are used to gain insight into the microscopic origin of materials’ properties. The dependence of materials’ properties on chemical composition is also explored. For example, we find that the formation energy and magnetic moment depend largely on A and B sites whereas the band gap depends on all three sites. Finally, we employ machine learning tools to accelerate the search for novel vdW magnets in the MBT family with optimized properties. Finally, this study creates avenues for rapidly predicting novel materials with desirable properties that could enable applications in spintronics, optoelectronics, and quantum computing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Estimating the National Carbon Abatement Potential of City Policies: A Data-Driven Approach

Cities are increasingly taking actions such as building code enforcement, urban planning, and public transit expansion to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide in their communities and municipal operations. However, many cities lack the quantitative information needed to estimate policy impacts and prioritize city actions in terms of carbon abatement potential and cost effectiveness. This report fills this research gap by providing methodologies to assess the carbon abatement potential of a variety of city actions. The methodologies are applied to an energy use data set of 23,458 cities compiled for the U.S. Department of Energy City Energy Profile tool. The analysis develops a national estimate of the carbon abatement potential of realizable city actions in six specific policy areas encompassing the most commonly implemented city actions. The results of this analysis suggest that, in aggregate, cities could reduce nationwide carbon emissions by about 210 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MMT CO2) per year in a 'moderate abatement scenario' by 2035 and 480 MMT CO2/year in a 'high abatement scenario' by 2035 through these common actions typically within a city's control in the six policy areas. The aggregate carbon abatement potential of these specific areas equates to a reduction of 3%-7% relative to 2013 U.S. emissions. At the city level, the results suggest the average city could reduce carbon emissions by 7% (moderate) to 19% (high) relative to current city-level emissions. In the context of U.S. climate commitments under the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21), the estimated national abatement potential of the city actions analyzed in this report equates to about 15%-35% of the remaining carbon abatement necessary to achieve the U.S. COP21 target. Additional city actions outside the scope of this report, such as community choice aggregation (city-level purchasing of renewable energy), zero energy districts, and multi-level governance strategies, could significantly augment the carbon abatement contributions of city actions toward national climate targets. The results suggest that cities may play a pivotal role in progress toward national climate targets. In addition to providing carbon and emissions estimates, this report estimates the national net economic impacts of policies for which cost and benefit data are available. Impact metrics include employment, worker earnings, and gross domestic product (GDP). For the policy areas studied, the economic analysis demonstrates that city carbon abatement may be achieved with only minimal and generally slightly positive economic impacts. Employment impacts range from 0.04% to 0.13% of U.S, employment during implementation and zero to 0.1% thereafter. GDP estimates show net impacts of 0.02% to 0.07% of GDP during implementation and impacts from -0.02% to zero thereafter. This report quantitatively demonstrates the material impact of a limited set of local policy areas on national carbon abatement potential. The magnitude of estimated carbon reductions from city policies, 3%-7% of national emissions by 2035, suggests an important role for city-led actions in reaching U.S. climate goals. Multi-level governance at the city, state, and national levels could augment the carbon abatement potential of city actions and make cities a key component of long-term U.S. climate strategies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a data-driven model of hadronization using normalizing flows

We introduce a model of hadronization based on invertible neural networks that faithfully reproduces a simplified version of the Lund string model for meson hadronization. Additionally, we introduce a new training method for normalizing flows, termed MAGIC, that improves the agreement between simulated and experimental distributions of high-level (macroscopic) observables by adjusting single-emission (microscopic) dynamics. Our results constitute an important step toward realizing a machine-learning based model of hadronization that utilizes experimental data during training. Finally, we demonstrate how a Bayesian extension to this normalizing-flow architecture can be used to provide analysis of statistical and modeling uncertainties on the generated observable distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Many-Body Models for Molecular Fluids: CO 2 /H 2 O Mixtures as a Case Study

In this study, we extend the scope of the many-body TTM-nrg and MB-nrg potential energy functions (PEFs), originally introduced for halide ion–water and alkali-metal ion–water interactions, to the modeling of carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O) mixtures as prototypical examples of molecular fluids. Both TTM-nrg and MB-nrg PEFs are derived entirely from electronic structure data obtained at the coupled cluster level of theory and are, by construction, compatible with MB-pol, a many-body PEF that has been shown to accurately reproduce the properties of water. Although both TTM-nrg and MB-nrg PEFs adopt the same functional forms for describing permanent electrostatics, polarization, and dispersion, they differ in the representation of short-range contributions, with the TTM-nrg PEFs relying on conventional Born–Mayer expressions and the MB-nrg PEFs employing multidimensional permutationally invariant polynomials. By providing a physically correct description of many-body effects at both short and long ranges, the MB-nrg PEFs are shown to quantitatively represent the global potential energy surfaces of the CO 2 –CO 2 and CO 2 –H 2 O dimers and the energetics of small clusters, as well as to correctly reproduce various properties in both gas and liquid phases. Furthermore, building upon previous studies of aqueous systems, our analysis provides further evidence for the accuracy and efficiency of the MB-nrg framework in representing molecular interactions in fluid mixtures at different temperature and pressure conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Data-Driven Method for Synthetic Extreme Weather Generation and Solar Impact Assessment: Preprint

High-resolution, high-fidelity weather datasets are essential for testing and evaluating the resilience of power systems, particularly under extreme weather conditions. However, existing extreme weather datasets are typically derived from historical events that are localized and may lack the spatial and temporal resolution or scenario diversity needed to test largescale power systems. In this work, we propose a synthetic extreme weather simulation approach capable of generating targeted extreme events, such as hurricanes, using publicly available data sources. Preliminary results demonstrate the impact of a simulated Category 1 hurricane on renewable generation and critical infrastructure in California. The work aims to provide a flexible approach for creating multiple types of extreme weather scenarios across different regions, enabling comprehensive system stress testing, training, and resilience assessment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Data-Driven Prediction of Downstream 1D River Flow to Overcome the Challenges of Hydrologic River Modeling

Methods for downstream river flow prediction can be categorized into physics-based and empirical approaches. Although based on well-studied physical relationships, physics-based models rely on numerous hydrologic variables characteristic of the specific river system that can be costly to acquire. Moreover, simulation is often computationally intensive. Conversely, empirical models require less information about the system being modeled and can capture a system’s interactions based on a smaller set of observed data. This article introduces two empirical methods to predict downstream hydraulic variables based on observed stream data: a linear programming (LP) model, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We apply both empirical models within the Colorado River system to a site located on the Green River, downstream of the Yampa River confluence and Flaming Gorge Dam, and compare it to the physics-based model Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) currently used by federal agencies. Results show that both proposed models significantly outperform the SSARR model. Moreover, the CNN model outperforms the LP model for hourly predictions whereas both perform similarly for daily predictions. Although less accurate than the CNN model at finer temporal resolution, the LP model is ideal for linear water scheduling tools.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fundamental Parameters of ∼30,000 M dwarfs in LAMOST DR1 Using Data-driven Spectral Modeling

M dwarfs are the most common type of star in the Galaxy, and because of their small size are favored targets for searches of Earth-sized transiting exoplanets. Current and upcoming all-sky spectroscopic surveys, such as the Large Sky Area Multi Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST), offer an opportunity to systematically determine physical properties of many more M dwarfs than has been previously possible. Here, we present new effective temperatures, radii, masses, and luminosities for 29,678 M dwarfs with spectral types M0–M6 in the first data release (DR1) of LAMOST. We derived these parameters from the supervised machine-learning code, The Cannon, trained with 1388 M dwarfs in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite Cool Dwarf Catalog that were also present in LAMOST with high signal-to-noise ratio (>250) spectra. Our validation tests show that the output parameter uncertainties are strongly correlated with the signal-to-noise of the LAMOST spectra, and we achieve typical uncertainties of 110 K in T{sub eff} (∼3%), 0.065 R{sub ⊙} (∼14%) in radius, 0.054 M{sub ⊙} (∼12%) in mass, and 0.012 L{sub ⊙} (∼20%) in luminosity. The model presented here can be rapidly applied to future LAMOST data releases, significantly extending the samples of well-characterized M dwarfs across the sky using new and exclusively data-based modeling methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven operational model for traffic at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

Airports are on the front line of significant innovations, allowing the movement of more people and goods faster, cheaper, and with greater convenience. As air travel continues to grow, airports will face challenges in responding to increasing passenger vehicle traffic, which leads to lower operational efficiency, poor air quality, and security concerns. This paper evaluates methods for traffic demand forecasting combined with traffic microsimulation, which will allow airport operations staff to accurately predict traffic and congestion. Using two years of detailed data describing individual vehicle arrivals and departures, aircraft movements, and weather at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport, we evaluate multiple prediction methods including the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models, traditional machine learning models, and DeepAR, a modern recurrent neural network (RNN). We find that these algorithms are able to capture the diurnal trends in the surface traffic, and all do very well when predicting the next 30 minutes of demand. Longer forecast horizons are moderately effective, demonstrating the challenge of this problem and highlighting promising techniques as well as potential areas for improvement. Traffic demand is not the only factor that contributes to terminal congestion, because temporary changes to the road network, such as a lane closure, can make benign traffic demand highly congested. Combining a demand forecast with a traffic microsimulation framework provides a complete picture of traffic and its consequences. The result is an operational intelligence platform for exploring policy changes, as well as infrastructure expansion and disruption scenarios. To demonstrate the value of this approach, we present results from a case study at DFW Airport assessing the impact of a policy change for vehicle routing in high demand scenarios. This framework can assist airports like DFW as they tackle daily operational challenges, as well as explore the integration of emerging technology and expansion of their services into long term plans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗