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At least 721 records · Page 40

Do energy costs really affect commercial mortgage default risk? New results and implications for energy efficiency investments [PowerPoint]

This paper presents new results on the link between energy factors and commercial mortgage default. First, we summarize results from an empirical analysis of the impact of source energy use intensity (EUI) and electricity prices on mortgage default. We used a unique data set that merges building-level energy use data from city benchmarking ordinances and financial data for commercial mortgages on the same buildings. We found that building source EUI and electricity price are statistically and economically associated with commercial mortgage defaults. Next, we present five case studies on the impact of energy use and price variations on default risk: three office buildings, a hotel, and a multi-family residential building. We use the empirical model coefficients to compute the default risk impacts due to variations in source EUI and electricity price over the course of the mortgage term. We found that variations in source EUI could raise or lower the default rates in these properties by between 5% and 40%, depending on the property type and geography. Electricity pricing has an even greater effect – roughly 60% change in default rate in the Denver area and nearly 90% in northern California. Finally, we propose an energy risk score that lenders can use to assess energy risk and inform mortgage terms. The score is being developed and piloted in collaboration with three mortgage lenders. We conclude with implications of this score as a market signal and mechanism for incentivizing energy efficiency investments through the commercial mortgage channel.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Radiomics-based prediction of microsatellite instability in colorectal cancer at initial computed tomography evaluation

Purpose: To predict microsatellite instability (MSI) status of colon cancer on preoperative CT imaging using radiomic analysis. Methods: This retrospective study involved radiomic analysis of preoperative CT imaging of patients who underwent resection of stage II–III colon cancer from 2004 to 2012. A radiologist blinded to MSI status manually segmented the tumor region on CT images. 254 Intensity-based radiomic features were extracted from the tumor region. Three prediction models were developed with (1) only clinical features, (2) only radiomic features, and (3) “combined” clinical and radiomic features. Patients were randomly separated into training (n = 139) and test (n = 59) sets. The model was constructed from training data only; the test set was reserved for validation only. Model performance was evaluated using AUC, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV. Results: Of the total 198 patients, 134 (68%) patients had microsatellite stable tumors and 64 (32%) patients had MSI tumors. The combined model performed slightly better than the other models, predicting MSI with an AUC of 0.80 for the training set and 0.79 for the test set (specificity = 96.8% and 92.5%, respectively), whereas the model with only clinical features achieved an AUC of 0.74 and the model with only radiomic features achieved an AUC of 0.76. The model with clinical features alone had the lowest specificity (70%) compared with the model with radiomic features alone (95%) and the combined model (92.5%). Conclusions: Preoperative prediction of MSI status via radiomic analysis of preoperative CT adds specificity to clinical assessment and could contribute to personalized treatment selection.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Predicting Atomistic Transitions with Transformers

Accurate knowledge of the atomistic transition pathways in materials and material surfaces is crucial for many material science problems. However, conventional simulation techniques used to find these transitions are extremely computationally intensive. Even with large-scale, accelerated material simulations, the computational cost constrains the applicable domain in practice. Machine learning models, with the potential to learn the complex emergent behaviors governing atomistic transitions as a fast surrogate model, have great promise to predict transitions with a vastly reduced computational cost. Here, we demonstrate how transformers can be trained to predict atomistic transitions in nano-clusters. We show how we evaluate physical validity of the predictions and how a multitude of additional, different microstates can be generated by slightly varying the data provided to the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MO-G-304-02: Knowledge Based DVH Prediction Using a Geometric Dose Transform

Purpose: To demonstrate a novel method for predicting patient dose-volume histograms (DVHs) using a prior database of optimized radiotherapy treatment plans. Such predicted DVHs could be useful for automating treatment planning. Methods: Our initial demonstration utilized a database of 100 prostate intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) data-sets. Each data-set contained a CT image with contours of the planning target volume (PTV), rectum, and bladder, the parameters of a clinically approved IMRT plan, and a corresponding simulated dose distribution. We applied a novel geometric transformation to remove the influence of the PTV size, shape, and location on the dose distribution. We termed the transformed distribution the geometrically normalized dose distribution (GNDD). This normalization transform was applied to 80 data-sets randomly selected from the database, and a population GNDD was computed as the average. Next, the population GNDD was mapped onto each of the remaining 20 patient datasets using the reverse of the geometric normalization transform, and predicted DVHs were calculated from the reverse transformed dose distributions (GNDD-DVHs). In addition, a state of the art machine learning based method from the literature was tested for comparison. Results: DVH prediction accuracy was quantified by calculating the relative root mean squared error (rRMSE) on predicted DVHs for the 20 test patients using their known DVHs. For bladder, rectum, and PTV average rRMSEs for the GNDD method were 9.7 ± 4.2%, 13.9 ± 6.0%, and 2.3 ± 0.5% respectively. Prediction results using GNDD were roughly equivalent to that from the machine learning method. Conclusion: We developed a new method for predicting DVH curves from a database of prior patient plans. We demonstrated that our simple approach achieves accuracy comparable to a method using a complicated machine learning based approach.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The antibody mining toolbox: An open source tool for the rapid analysis of antibody repertoires

In vitro selection has been an essential tool in the development of recombinant antibodies against various antigen targets. Deep sequencing has recently been gaining ground as an alternative and valuable method to analyze such antibody selections. The analysis provides a novel and extremely detailed view of selected antibody populations, and allows the identification of specific antibodies using only sequencing data, potentially eliminating the need for expensive and laborious low-throughput screening methods such as enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay. The high cost and the need for bioinformatics experts and powerful computer clusters, however, have limited the general use of deep sequencing in antibody selections. Here, we describe the AbMining ToolBox, an open source software package for the straightforward analysis of antibody libraries sequenced by the three main next generation sequencing platforms (454, Ion Torrent, MiSeq). The ToolBox is able to identify heavy chain CDR3s as effectively as more computationally intense software, and can be easily adapted to analyze other portions of antibody variable genes, as well as the selection outputs of libraries based on different scaffolds. The software runs on all common operating systems (Microsoft Windows, Mac OS X, Linux), on standard personal computers, and sequence analysis of 1–2 million reads can be accomplished in 10–15 min, a fraction of the time of competing software. Use of the ToolBox will allow the average researcher to incorporate deep sequence analysis into routine selections from antibody display libraries.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Discrete Green’s functions and spectral graph theory for computationally efficient thermal modeling

Here, this work concerns solutions of the heat equation with the spectral graph method, for which the temperature is defined at discrete points in the domain and the spatial relationship among the points is described by a graph. The heat equation on the graph is solved using matrix techniques involving the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the Laplacian matrix. The spectral graph approach precludes the computationally intensive meshing and numerous time-integration steps of the finite element method. In the present work, the spectral graph method is extended to include heat loss at the boundaries with a generalized boundary condition, and physics-based edge weights are introduced which simplify the calibration process. From this approach a discrete Green’s function is defined which allows for solutions under a variety of heating conditions including: space-varying initial conditions; time-and-space varying internal heating; and, time-and-space-varying heating at boundaries of type 1 (Dirichlet), type 2 (Neumann) and type 3 (Robin). Results are provided for benchmark heat transfer problems in one spatial dimension and in three spatial dimensions, and verification is provided by comparison with exact analytical solutions and finite difference solutions. The spectral graph method converges within 0.4% error of the analytical solution. The practical utility of the approach is demonstrated by thermal simulation of a multilayer additive manufacturing process. The spectral graph results are compared to experimentally-obtained temperature data for two metal parts, with error less than 5% of the experimental measurements, with computation time less than one minute on a desktop computer.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

WellSTIC: A Cost-Effective Sensor for Performing Point Dilution Tests to Measure Groundwater Velocity in Shallow Aquifers

Many individual measurement points are required to characterize groundwater velocity within an aquifer. Groundwater velocity is most commonly measured using a network of >5 cm diameter monitoring wells, which, if not already present at a site, are expensive and labor-intensive to install. Drive-point piezometers—simple, cost-effective wells that can be installed by hand—are a common tool for sampling groundwater in shallow, alluvial aquifers, but most groundwater velocity measurement techniques require equipment that is too large for these narrow (usually <2 cm inside diameter) piezometers. In this technical note, we introduce a low-cost sensor and well packer system (<$90 USD) for performing point dilution tests in narrow piezometers. Field data show that the magnitude of groundwater velocity measured with this technique agrees with velocities computed from natural gradient tracer tests. Additionally, with proper calibration, these sensors can be used to continuously monitor in-well specific conductance, either during inter-well tracer tests with saline tracers or for water quality monitoring. Finally, this system is a viable tool for rapid assessment of the magnitude of groundwater velocity in shallow aquifers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simit: A Language for Physical Simulation

With existing programming tools, writing high-performance simulation code is labor intensive and requires sacrificing readability and portability. Here, the alternative is to prototype simulations in a high-level language like Matlab, thereby sacrificing performance. The Matlab programming model naturally describes the behavior of an entire physical system using the language of linear algebra. However, simulations also manipulate individual geometric elements, which are best represented using linked data structures like meshes. Translating between the linked data structures and linear algebra comes at significant cost, both to the programmer and to the machine. High-performance implementations avoid the cost by rephrasing the computation in terms of linked or index data structures, leaving the code complicated and monolithic, often increasing its size by an order of magnitude. In this article, we present Simit, a new language for physical simulations that lets the programmer view the system both as a linked data structure in the form of a hypergraph and as a set of global vectors, matrices, and tensors depending on what is convenient at any given time. Simit provides a novel assembly construct that makes it conceptually easy and computationally efficient to move between the two abstractions. Using the information provided by the assembly construct, the compiler generates efficient in-place computation on the graph. We demonstrate that Simit is easy to use: a Simit program is typically shorter than a Matlab program; that it is high performance: a Simit program running sequentially on a CPU performs comparably to hand-optimized simulations; and that it is portable: Simit programs can be compiled for GPUs with no change to the program, delivering 4 to 20× speedups over our optimized CPU code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Specimen Size Artifacts Associated with a Glovebox Deployable Laser Flash Diffusivity Measurement System

To accelerate nuclear fuel qualification and deployment efforts, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has led the world in developing vehicles for accelerating burnup accumulation in nuclear fuel by testing miniature samples in the High Flux Isotope Reactor. However, a challenge remains to establish parity between post irradiation characterization methods for miniature fuel specimens in comparison to conventional fuel elements. This work aims to identify artifacts associated with the thermal analysis of miniature disk specimens in comparison to samples of standardized dimensions through a combination of experimental and computational tools. Using a newly procured Netzsch 427 laser flash diffusivity system, preliminary data on mild steel specimens were collected, and finite element techniques were used to model heat transfer using 1D conditions to assess issues associated with pulse width and data collection frequency effects. These preliminary investigations found that significant variability in measured thermal diffusivity exist within datasets. These variations are not necessarily attributed to limitations with respect to data collection rate; nor are they associated with limitations on pulse width. Instead, these artifacts may be a result of limitations in detector intensity. Future work aims to design a focusing lens to better measure the smaller surface area of miniature specimens analyzed using the laser flash analysis system.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Gaussian Kernel Methods for Seismic Fragility and Risk Assessment of Mid-Rise Buildings

Seismic fragility functions can be evaluated using the cloud analysis method with linear regression which makes three fundamental assumptions about the relation between structural response and seismic intensity: log-linear median relationship, constant standard deviation, and Gaussian distributed errors. While cloud analysis with linear regression is a popular method, the degree to which these individual and compounded assumptions affect the fragility and the risk of mid-rise buildings needs to be systematically studied. This paper conducts such a study considering three building archetypes that make up a bulk of the building stock: RC moment frame, steel moment frame, and wood shear wall. Gaussian kernel methods are employed to capture the data-driven variations in the median structural response and standard deviation and the distributions of residuals with the intensity level. With reference to the Gaussian kernels approach, it is found that while the linear regression assumptions may not affect the fragility functions of lower damage states, this conclusion does not hold for the higher damage states (such as the Complete state). In addition, the effects of linear regression assumptions on the seismic risk are evaluated. For predicting the demand hazard, it is found that the linear regression assumptions can impact the computed risk for larger structural response values. However, for predicting the loss hazard with downtime as the decision variable, linear regression can be considered adequate for all practical purposes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep Neural Network High Spatiotemporal Resolution Precipitation Estimation (Deep-STEP) Using Passive Microwave and Infrared Data

Recent developments in “headline-making” deep neural networks (DNNs), specifically convolutional neural networks (CNNs), along with advancements in computational power, open great opportunities to integrate massive amounts of real-time observations to characterize spatiotemporal structures of surface precipitation. This study aims to develop a CNN algorithm, named Deep Neural Network High Spatiotemporal Resolution Precipitation Estimation (Deep-STEP), that ingests direct satellite passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures (Tbs) at emission and scattering frequencies combined with infrared (IR) Tbs from geostationary satellites and surface information to automatically extract geospatial features related to the precipitable clouds. These features allow the end-to-end Deep-STEP algorithm to instantaneously map surface precipitation intensities with a spatial resolution of 4 km. The main advantages of Deep-STEP, as compared to current state-of-the-art techniques, are 1) it learns and estimates complex precipitation systems directly from raw measurements in near–real time, 2) it uses the automatic spatial neighborhood feature extraction approach, and 3) it fuses coarse-resolution PMW footprints with IR images to reliably retrieve surface precipitation at a high spatial resolution. We anticipate our proposed DNN algorithm to be a starting point for more sophisticated and efficient precipitation retrieval systems in terms of accuracy, fine spatial pattern detection skills, and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Survey of Deep Learning and Physics-Based Approaches in Computational Wave Imaging

Computational wave imaging (CWI) extracts hidden structure and physical properties of a volume of material by analyzing wave signals that traverse that volume. Applications include seismic exploration of the Earth’s subsurface, acoustic imaging and nondestructive testing (NDT) in material science, and ultrasound computed tomography (USCT) in medicine. Current approaches for solving CWI problems can be divided into two categories: those rooted in traditional physics and those based on deep learning. Physics-based methods stand out for their ability to provide high-resolution and quantitatively accurate estimates of acoustic properties within the medium. However, they can be computationally intensive and are susceptible to ill-posedness and nonconvexity typical of CWI problems. Machine learning (ML)-based computational methods have recently emerged, offering a different perspective to address these challenges. Diverse scientific communities have independently pursued the integration of deep learning in CWI. This review discusses how contemporary scientific ML techniques, and deep neural networks in particular, have been developed to enhance and integrate with traditional physics-based methods for solving CWI problems. We present a structured framework that consolidates existing research spanning multiple domains, including computational imaging, wave physics, and data science. This study concludes with important lessons learned from existing ML-based methods and identifies technical hurdles and emerging trends through a systematic analysis of the extensive literature on this topic.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An X-ray Intensity Operations Monitor (AXIOM) (Final LDRD Project Report)

The Saturn accelerator has historically lacked the capability to measure time-resolved spectra for its 3-ring bremsstrahlung x-ray source. This project aimed to create a spectrometer called AXIOM to provide this capability. The project had three major development pillars: hardware, simulation, and unfold code. The hardware consists of a ring of 24 detectors around an existing x-ray pinhole camera. The diagnostic was fielded on two shots at Saturn and over 100 shots at the TriMeV accelerator at Idaho Accelerator Center. A new Saturn x-ray environment simulation was created using measured data to validate. This simulation allows for timeresolved spectra computation to compare the experimental results. The AXIOM-Unfold code is a new parametric unfold code using modern global optimizers and uncertainty quantification. The code was written in Python, uses Gitlab version control and issue tracking, and has been developed with long term code support and maintenance in mind.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NARUC grid data sharing playbook

In 2022, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) launched an initiative to support its members in addressing issues related to grid data sharing. The Grid Data Sharing Collaborative was funded by the DOE’s Office of Electricity and Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER). NARUC invited programmatic, policy, technical, and cybersecurity subject matter experts from public utility commissions, utilities, non-governmental organizations, energy service companies, and DOE to join the two-year Grid Data Sharing Collaborative to help develop a flexible framework for states to use as a starting point when navigating complex decision-making inherent in grid data sharing. The framework took shape through a series of intensive workshops during which Collaborative participants explored illustrative use cases to identify data needs, articulate the benefits and risks of sharing such data, and assess the trade-offs. Along the way, participants offered suggestions for how the framework could be used in practice. The purpose of this playbook is to describe the elements of the Grid Data Sharing Framework and to begin supporting its implementation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Path-BigBird: An AI-Driven Transformer Approach to Classification of Cancer Pathology Reports

PURPOSE Surgical pathology reports are critical for cancer diagnosis and management. To accurately extract information about tumor characteristics from pathology reports in near real time, we explore the impact of using domain-specific transformer models that understand cancer pathology reports. METHODS We built a pathology transformer model, Path-BigBird, by using 2.7 million pathology reports from six SEER cancer registries. We then compare different variations of Path-BigBird with two less computationally intensive methods: Hierarchical Self-Attention Network (HiSAN) classification model and an offthe-shelf clinical transformer model (Clinical BigBird). We use five pathology information extraction tasks for evaluation: site, subsite, laterality, histology, and behavior. Model performance is evaluated by using macro and micro F 1 scores. RESULTS We found that Path-BigBird and Clinical BigBird outperformed the HiSAN in all tasks. Clinical BigBird performed better on the site and laterality tasks. Versions of the Path-BigBird model performed best on the two most difficult tasks: subsite (micro F 1 score of 72.53, macro F 1 score of 35.76) and histology (micro F 1 score of 80.96, macro F 1 score of 37.94). The largest performance gains over the HiSAN model were for histology, for which a Path-BigBird model increased the micro F 1 score by 1.44 points and the macro F 1 score by 3.55 points. Overall, the results suggest that a Path-BigBird model with a vocabulary derived from wellcurated and deidentified data is the best-performing model. CONCLUSION The Path-BigBird pathology transformer model improves automated information extraction from pathology reports. Although Path-BigBird outperforms Clinical BigBird and HiSAN, these less computationally expensive models still have utility when resources are constrained.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Systemwide Planning with a Branch-and-Price Algorithm for Pavement-Marking Assessment Data Collection via the Mobile Retroreflectivity Unit Routing Model

The visibility of pavement markings is one of the most critical factors for traffic safety, and a periodical assessment plan is crucial for maintaining this function. Traditional assessment methods, such as visual windshield surveys or manual testing using handheld devices, are unsafe, time-consuming, and labor-intensive. In recent years, transportation agencies have begun to adopt the use of mobile retroreflectivity units (MRUs) for condition assessment of pavement markings. MRUs, different from other manual methods, can be utilized to collect large-scale retroreflectivity data in an efficient manner. However, no relevant research has yet proposed a mathematical optimization model for arranging the evaluation schedule and paths of MRUs. This study aims to propose a MRU routing model, and an efficient solution methodology. A branch-and-price algorithm, including column generation and branch-and-bound, was implemented. Computational experiments have been conducted based on actual tasks from the Florida MRU program for validation. In conclusion, results show that the proposed solution methodology with a set partitioning model in this study not only finds the optimal solution for problems with tasks less than 60, but also effectively narrows the solution gap to be within 1.0% for problems with tasks less than 131.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Eulerian crystal plasticity framework for modeling large anisotropic deformations in energetic materials under shocks

Here, this paper demonstrates a novel Eulerian computational framework for modeling anisotropic elastoplastic deformations of organic crystalline energetic materials (EM) under shocks. While Eulerian formulations are advantageous for handling large deformations, constitutive laws in such formulations have been limited to isotropic elastoplastic models, which may not fully capture the shock response of crystalline EM. The present Eulerian framework for high-strain rates, large deformation material dynamics of EM incorporates anisotropic isochoric elasticity via a hypo-elastic constitutive law and visco-plastic single-crystal models. The calculations are validated against atomistic calculations and experimental data and benchmarked against Lagrangian (finite element) crystal plasticity computations for shock-propagation in a monoclinic organic crystal, octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7 tetrazocine (β-HMX). The Cauchy stress components and the resolved shear stresses calculated using the present Eulerian approach are shown to be in good agreement with the Lagrangian computations for different crystal orientations. The Eulerian framework is then used for computations of shock-induced inert void collapse in β-HMX to study the effects of crystal orientations on hotspot formation under different loading intensities. The computations show that the hotspot temperature distributions and the collapse profiles are sensitive to the crystal orientations at lower impact velocities (viz., 500 m/s); when the impact velocity is increased to 1000 m/s, the collapse is predominantly hydrodynamic and the role of anisotropy is modest. The present methodology will be useful to simulate energy localization in shocked porous energetic material microstructures and other situations where large deformations of single and polycrystals govern the thermomechanical response.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 9%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗