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NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity of WFIRST Coronagraph Broadband Contrast Performance to DM Actuator Errors

The WFIRST/AFTA 2.4 m space telescope currently under study includes a stellar coronagraph for the imaging and the spectral characterization of extrasolar planets. The coronagraph employs sequential deformable mirrors to compensate for phase and amplitude errors. Using the optical model of an Occulting Mask Coronagraph (OMC) testbed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), we have investigated the sensitivity of a Hybrid Lyot Coronagraph (HLC) broadband contrast performance to DM actuator errors and actuator limits. Considered case include drifts in actuator gains or actuator response curves, paired actuators, as well as the limits imposed by a neighboring-actuator rule. Actual data about the actuator drifts and the knowledge about the paired-actuators obtained in several DM characterization experiments conducted at JPL, as well as the neighboring-actuator rule implemented on the OMC testbed were used in simulations. We obtained good agreement between the model prediction and the testbed measurement in terms of static HLC contrast floor and contrast chromaticity.

Sidick, Erkin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Harmonic analysis of discrete tracers of large-scale structure

It is commonplace in cosmology to analyze fields projected onto the celestial sphere, and in particular density fields that are defined by a set of points e.g. galaxies. When performing an harmonic-space analysis of such data (e.g. an angular power spectrum) using a pixelized map one has to deal with aliasing of small-scale power and pixel window functions. We compare and contrast the approaches to this problem taken in the cosmic microwave background and large-scale structure communities, and advocate for a direct approach that avoids pixelization. We describe a method for performing a pseudo-spectrum analysis of a galaxy data set and show that it can be implemented efficiently using well-known algorithms for special functions that are suited to acceleration by graphics processing units (GPUs). The method returns the same spectra as the more traditional map-based approach if in the latter the number of pixels is taken to be sufficiently large and the mask is well sampled. The method is readily generalizable to cross-spectra and higher-order functions. It also provides a convenient route for distributing the information in a galaxy catalog directly in harmonic space, as a complement to releasing the configuration-space positions and weights, and a route to spectral apodization. Finally, we make public a code enabling the application of our method to existing and upcoming datasets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

KAZR Hydrometeor and Insect Masks

The Ka-band ARM zenith pointing radar (aka, KAZR) is so sensitive that it detects cloud particles and individual insects. While detecting insects with Ka-band radar is beneficial and desirable to advance radar entomology, this sensitivity can be detrimental to radar meteorology because insects could be interpreted as clouds or precipitation. For example, misclassifying insects as clouds has been a problem for the ARM Active Remote Sensing of Clouds (ARSCL) Value Added Product since its inception (Clothiaux et al. 2000). Based on cloud particle and insect radar scattering properties, an algorithm was developed that identifies clouds, raindrops, ice particles, and insects in KAZR co- and cross-polarimeteric Doppler velocity spectra. The algorithm produces affirmative masks in the KAZR native time and height resolution indicating time-height locations of hydrometeors and insects. The hydrometeor mask contains binary information (e.g., yes/no hydrometeor presence), and the insect mask includes a proxy for insect activity that increases when more insects are detected in the Doppler velocity spectra. The algorithm was developed using KAZR medium sensitivity mode (MD) observations and was applied to two summer seasons of KAZR observations at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility: May-October 2018 and 2019. In the future, this data set will be expanded to include other KAZR operating modes and observations from other ARM field sites. Details of the algorithm and data set can be found in: Williams, C.R., K.L. Johnson, S.E. Giangrande, J. C. Hardin, R. Oktem, and D. M. Romps, 2021: Identifying Insects, Clouds, and Precipitation using Vertically Pointing Polarimetric Radar Doppler Velocity Spectra. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, submitted 6-Feb-2021. https://amt.copernicus.org/preprints/amt-2021-27/#discussion.For more information on the ARSCL VAP, see Clothiaux, E. E., T. P. Ackerman, G. G. Mace, K. P. Moran, R. T. Marchand, M. A. Miller, and B. E. Martner, 2000; J. Appl. Meteor., 39, 645-665.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

TPSAS-NF1676L-32014-DND

The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), on-board the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) is a satellite-borne polarization sensitive lidar. It has been providing the vertical distributions of clouds and aerosols along with their microphysical and optical properties since 2006. One of its important Level 2 products, feature classification, has been determined using the lidar information from 532 nm parallel and perpendicular channels, and 1064 nm channel measurements of layer integrated backscatter. Deep machine learning methods which combine both the channel and texture information to recognize feature patterns is uniquely beneficial when applied to this data. In this study, we will use Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a deep machine learning method, to classify lidar aerosol subtypes by using the lidar profile observations. This method uses additional information from the vertical texture of the feature instead of using only the layer information. Note that in the integrated layer properties, the texture information has been masked due to averaging. Our results will show how the texture information plays a role in the classification. This preliminary work explores the benefits and potential of deep machine learning methods for lidar retrievals and focuses on the aerosol subtype classification. The broader application extends to the classification of other feature types. Future applications include the developing deep machine learning methods with neural networks to retrieve properties of the features, and studies of indirect effect of cloud-aerosol interaction from lidar measurements.

Shan Zeng Kowalski↗

NASA NTRS1991

Rainfall estimation over oceans from scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and special sensor microwave/imager microwave data

The brightness temperature (T sub b) measured at 37 GHz shows fairly strong emission from rain, and only slight effects caused by scattering by ice above the rain clouds. At frequencies below 37 GHz, were the fov is larger and the volume extinction coefficient is weaker, it is found that the observations do not yield appreciable additional information about rain. At 85 GHz (fov = 15 km), where the volume extinction is considerably larger, direct information about rain below the clouds is usually masked. Based on the above ideas, 37 GHz observations with a 30 km fov from SMMR and SSM/I are selected to develop an empirical method for the estimation of rain rate. In this method, the statistics of the observed T sub b's at 37 GHz in a rain storm are related to the rain rate statistics in that storm. The underestimation of rain rate, arising from the inability of the radiometer to respond sensitively to rain rate above a given threshold, is rectified in this technique with the aid of two parameters that depend on the total water vapor content in the atmosphere. The retrieved rain rates compare favorably with radar observations and monthly mean global maps of rain derived from this technique over the oceans.

Prabhakara, C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Rainfall estimation over oceans from SMMR and SSM/I microwave data

The brightness temperature (T sub b) measured at 37 GHz shows fairly strong emission from rain, and only slight effects caused by scattering by ice above the rain clouds. At frequencies below 37 GHz, where the FOV is larger and the volume extinction coefficient is weaker, it is found that the observations do not yield appreciable additional information about rain. At 85 GHz (FOV = 15 km), where the volume extinction is considerably larger, direct information about rain below the clouds is usually masked. Based on the above idea, 37 GHz observations with a 30 km FOV from SMMR and SSM/I are selected to develop an empirical method for the estimation of rain rate. In this method, the statistics of the observed T sub b's at 37 GHz in a rain storm are related to the rain rate statistics in that storm. The underestimation of rain rate, arising from the inability of the radiometer to respond sensitively to rain rate above a given threshold is rectified in this technique with the aid of two parameters that depend on the total water vapor content in the atmosphere. The retrieved rain rates compare favorably with radar observations and monthly mean global maps of rain derived from this technique over the oceans.

Prabhakara, C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Field, frequency, and temperature dependencies of the surface resistance of nitrogen diffused niobium superconducting radio frequency cavities

We investigate the rf performance of several single-cell superconducting radio-frequency cavities subjected to low temperature heat treatment in nitrogen environment. The cavities were treated at temperature 120 – 165 ° C for an extended period of time (24–48 h) either in high vacuum or in a low partial pressure of ultrapure nitrogen. The improvement in Q 0 with a Q rise was observed when nitrogen gas was injected at ∼ 300 ° C during the cavity cooldown from 800 ° C and held at 165 ° C , without any degradation in accelerating gradient over the baseline performance. The treatment was applied to several elliptical cavities with frequency ranging from 0.75 to 3.0 GHz, showing an improved quality factor as a result of low temperature nitrogen treatments. The Q rise feature is similar to that achieved by nitrogen alloying Nb cavities at higher temperature, followed by material removal by electropolishing. The surface modification was confirmed by the change in electronic mean free path and tuned with the temperature and duration of heat treatment. The decrease of the temperature-dependent surface resistance with increasing rf field, resulting in a Q rise, becomes stronger with increasing frequency and decreasing temperature. The data suggest a crossover frequency of ∼ 0.95 GHz above that the Q rise phenomenon occurs at 2 K. Some of these results can be explained qualitatively with an existing model of intrinsic field-dependence of the surface resistance with both equilibrium and nonequilibrium quasiparticle distribution functions. The change in the Q slope below 0.95 GHz may result from masking contribution of trapped magnetic flux to the residual surface resistance. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning Image Segmentation for Atmospheric Rivers

Abstract The identification of atmospheric rivers (ARs) is crucial for weather and climate predictions as they are often associated with severe storm systems and extreme precipitation, which can cause large impacts on society. This study presents a deep learning model, termed ARDetect, for image segmentation of ARs using ERA5 data from 1960 to 2020 with labels obtained from the TempestExtremes tracking algorithm. ARDetect is a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based U-Net model, with its structure having been optimized using automatic hyperparameter tuning. Inputs to ARDetect were selected to be the integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and total column water (TCW) fields, as well as the AR mask from TempestExtremes from the previous time step to the one being considered. ARDetect achieved a mean intersection-over-union (mIoU) rate of 89.04% for ARs, indicating its high accuracy in identifying these weather patterns and a superior performance than most deep learning–based models for AR detection. In addition, ARDetect can be executed faster than the TempestExtremes method (seconds vs minutes) for the same period. This provides a significant benefit for online AR detection, especially for high-resolution global models. An ensemble of 10 models, each trained on the same dataset but having different starting weights, was used to further improve on the performance produced by ARDetect, thus demonstrating the importance of model diversity in improving performance. ARDetect provides an effective and fast deep learning–based model for researchers and weather forecasters to better detect and understand ARs, which have significant impacts on weather-related events such as floods and droughts.

Galea, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identification and mapping of quantitative trait loci for Fusarium head blight resistance in a synthetic hexaploid × hard red spring wheat population

Abstract Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused byFusarium graminearumSchwabe, is one of the most devastating diseases in wheat (Triticum aestivumL.). The synthetic hexaploid wheat line Largo was developed from a cross between the durum wheat [T. turgidumssp.durum(Desf.) Husn.] variety Langdon and theAegilops tauschiiCosson accession PI 268210, and it was previously found to have a moderate level of FHB resistance. This study was conducted to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with FHB resistance using a population of 188 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from a cross between Largo and the susceptible wheat line ND495. The RILs were evaluated for Type II resistance in two greenhouse and two field environments. The disease severity and 90K single‐nucleotide polymorphism marker data were used for QTL analysis, which revealed six QTL on chromosomes 1D, 2D, 5B, and 7D. Four QTL (QFhb.rwg‐1D,QFhb.rwg‐5B,QFhb.rwg‐7D.1, andQFhb.rwg‐7D.3) from Largo had minor effects, whereas two QTL (QFhb.rwg‐2DandQFhb.rwg‐7D.2) from ND495 showed large effects on FHB resistance. The result suggested that ND495 may possess suppressor or susceptibility gene(s) suppressing or masking FHB resistance controlled by the resistance QTL. Among these QTL, four coincided with previously reported QTL, includingFhb9, and two (QFhb.rwg‐1DandQFhb.rwg‐7D.1) are likely novel QTL. From the six QTL regions, 10 Kompetitive allele‐specific PCR markers were developed and validated for marker‐assisted selection. The QTL detected from the resistant and susceptible parents enhance our understanding of FHB resistance expression and provide new resources for improving FHB resistance in wheat.

Genetics & Heredity↗

DOE OSTI2020

Genesis and Propagation of Fractal Structures During Photoelectrochemical Etching of n-Silicon

The genesis, propagation, and dimensions of fractal-etch patterns that form anodically on front- or back-illuminated n-Si(100) photoelectrodes in contact with 11.9 M NH 4 F (aqueous) have been investigated during either a linear potential sweep or a constant potential hold ( E = +6.0 V versus Ag/AgCl). Optical images collected in situ during electrochemical experiments reflected the location and underlying mechanism of initiation and propagation of the structures on the surface. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopic (XPS) data collected for samples emersed from the electrolyte at varied times provided detailed information about the chemistry of the surface during fractal etching. The fractal structure was strongly influenced by the orientation of the crystalline Si sample. Furthermore, the etch patterns were initially generated at points along the circumference of bubbles that formed upon immersion of n-Si(100) samples in the electrolyte, most likely due to the electrochemical and electronic isolation of areas beneath bubbles. XPS data showed the presence of a tensile-stressed silicon surface throughout the etching process as well as the presence of SiO x F y on the surface. The two-dimensional fractal dimension, D f,2D , of the patterns increased with etching time to a maximum observed value of D f,2D = 1.82. Promotion of fractal etching near etch masks that electrochemically and electronically isolated areas of the photoelectrode surface enabled the selective placement of highly branched structures at desired locations on an electrode surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2017

Collaborative, Rapid Mapping of Water Extents During Hurricane Harvey Using Optical and Radar Satellite Sensors

On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor, Texas, bringing with it unprecedented amounts of rainfall and record flooding. In times of natural disasters of this nature, emergency responders require timely and accurate information about the hazard in order to assess and plan for disaster response. Due to the extreme flooding impacts associated with Hurricane Harvey, delineations of water extent were crucial to inform resource deployment. Through the USGS's Hazards Data Distribution System, government and commercial vendors were able to acquire and distribute various satellite imagery to analysts to create value-added products that can be used by these emergency responders. Rapid-response water extent maps were created through a collaborative multi-organization and multi-sensor approach. One team of researchers created Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) water extent maps using modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2017), processed by ESA. This group used backscatter images, pre-processed by the Alaska Satellite Facility's Hybrid Pluggable Processing Pipeline (HyP3), to identify and apply a threshold to identify water in the image. Quality control was conducted by manually examining the image and correcting for potential errors. Another group of researchers and graduate student volunteers derived water masks from high resolution DigitalGlobe and SPOT images. Through a system of standardized image processing, quality control measures, and communication channels the team provided timely and fairly accurate water extent maps to support a larger NASA Disasters Program response. The optical imagery was processed through a combination of various band thresholds and by using Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Water Index (MNDWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and cloud masking. Several aspects of the pre-processing and image access were run on internal servers to expedite the provision of images to analysts who could focus on manipulating thresholds and quality control checks for maximum accuracy within the time constraints. The combined results of the radar- and optical-derived value-added products through the coordination of multiple organizations provided timely information for emergency response and recovery efforts.

SERVIR↗

NASA NTRS2022

An Algorithm for Statistical Audibility Prediction (SAP) of an Arbitrary Signal in the Presence of Noise

A method for predicting the audibility of an arbitrary time-varying noise (signal) in the presence of masking noise has been developed. The statistical audibility prediction (SAP) method relies on the specific loudness, or loudness perceived through the individual auditory filters, for accurate statistical estimation of audibility vs. time. More recent development has focused on derivation and inclusion of frequency-dependent correction factors in SAP’s model to account for the ability to hear signals below the level of the masking noise. Audibility prediction vs. time is intuitive since it captures changes in audibility with time as it occurs, which is critical for the study of human response to noise. Concurrently time-frequency prediction of audibility may also provide valuable information about the root cause(s) for audibility useful for the design and operation of sources of noise. Empirical data, gathered under a three-alternative forced-choice (3AFC) test paradigm for low-frequency sound, has been used to examine the accuracy of SAP.

audibility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Harmonized Sentinel-1 SAR Global River Geometry and Inundation Database

Satellite-based observations on river geometries are sporadic in time, space, or both. Most satellite-based surface water maps, river widths, water surface elevations (WSE), slopes, and bathymetry are asynchronized in time and space. The current configuration of satellites such as Sentinel-6 measured the WSE but is missing the river width, slopes, and depths. To advance hydrological sciences research, there is a need to produce a harmonized time series of river geometry data of non-SWOT satellites in partnership with the upcoming SWOT mission. The SWOT satellite will measure river width, height, and slope but missing river depth measurements in space and time. Further, none of these current satellites measure the WSE, river width, and slopes synchronously. In this work, we use the Sentinel-1 SAR satellite data archive from 2015 to the present to create a global river width and surface water database at the reach scale. A modified version of the Sentinel SAR surface water classification algorithm from ASF is used to quantify the surface water extent on the stream approximately every six days (at the equator) at 10m spatial resolution globally. This 10m water mask is fed into a workflow to quantify the river widths, surface water inundations, slopes, and synthetic bathymetry in SWORD (SWOT River Database) stream networks. A Satellite HAND is used to address the cloud obscured surface water observations using a trained machine learning algorithm. We use WSE derived from the Global Water Monitor from NASA GSFC, Hydroweb from LEGOS, and ICESat-2 to harmonize the WSE observation. And Landsat-8/9 and Sentinel-2 water observations to fill the gaps in the Sentinel-1 SAR database. We use Congo River Basin as a test case where we have more than 500 radar altimetry-based WSE, continuous series of Sentinel-1, ICESat-2, Landsat-8/9, and Sentinel-2 observations. A Congo River hydrologic model is used to generate the streamflow discharge. The satellite observed river reaches are assimilated with the stream flows computed by the routing models. And the downstream reaches in the river network without satellite observations get optimized for discharge/river geometry at each observation cycle. Our final product is a harmonized river geometry dataset (reach's water extent, WSE, slope, synthetic bathymetry) for Congo Basin's SWORD reaches.

Chandana Gangodagamage↗

DOE OSTI2024

EHR-BERT: A BERT-based model for effective anomaly detection in electronic health records

Objective: Physicians and clinicians rely on data contained in electronic health records (EHRs), as recorded by health information technology (HIT), to make informed decisions about their patients. The reliability of HIT systems in this regard is critical to patient safety. Consequently, better tools are needed to monitor the performance of HIT systems for potential hazards that could compromise the collected EHRs, which in turn could affect patient safety. In this paper, we propose a new framework for detecting anomalies in EHRs using sequence of clinical events. This new framework, EHR-Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), is motivated by the gaps in the existing deep-learning related methods, including high false negatives, sub-optimal accuracy, higher computational cost, and the risk of information loss. EHR-BERT is an innovative framework rooted in the BERT architecture, meticulously tailored to navigate the hurdles in the contemporary BERT method; thus, enhancing anomaly detection in EHRs for healthcare applications.Methods: The EHR-BERT framework was designed using the Sequential Masked Token Prediction (SMTP) method. This approach treats EHRs as natural language sentences and iteratively masks input tokens during both training and prediction stages. This method facilitates the learning of EHR sequence patterns in both directions for each event and identifies anomalies based on deviations from the normal execution models trained on EHR sequences.Results: Extensive experiments on large EHR datasets across various medical domains demonstrate that EHR-BERT markedly improves upon existing models. It significantly reduces the number of false positives and enhances the detection rate, thus bolstering the reliability of anomaly detection in electronic health records. This improvement is attributed to the model’s ability to minimize information loss and maximize data utilization effectively.Conclusion: EHR-BERT showcases immense potential in decreasing medical errors related to anomalous clinical events, positioning itself as an indispensable asset for enhancing patient safety and the overall standard of healthcare services. The framework effectively overcomes the drawbacks of earlier models, making it a promising solution for healthcare professionals to ensure the reliability and quality of health data.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Heavy flavor dynamics across system size at the LHC

One of the fundamental signatures of the Quark Gluon Plasma has been the suppression of heavy flavor (specifically D mesons), which has been measured via the nuclear modification factor, R AA and azimuthal anisotropies, v n , in large systems. However, multiple competing models can reproduce the same data for R AA to v n . In this talk we break down the competing effects that conspire together to successfully reproduce R AA and v n in experimental data using Trento+v-USPhydro+DAB-MOD. Then using our best fit model we make predictions for R AA and v n across system size for 208 PbPb, 129 XeXe, 40 ArAr, and 16 OO collisions. We find that 0–10% centrality has a non-trivial interplay between the system size and eccentricities such that system size effects are masked in v 2 whereas in 30–50% centrality the eccentricities are approximately constant across system size and, therefore, is a better centrality class to study D meson dynamics across system size.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing the target selection pipeline for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Bright Galaxy Survey

ABSTRACT We present the steps taken to produce a reliable and complete input galaxy catalogue for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) using the photometric Legacy Survey DR8 DECam. We analyse some of the main issues faced in the selection of targets for the DESI BGS, such as star–galaxy separation, contamination by fragmented stars and bright galaxies. Our pipeline utilizes a new way to select BGS galaxies using Gaia photometry and we implement geometrical and photometric masks that reduce the number of spurious objects. The resulting catalogue is cross-matched with the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey to assess the completeness of the galaxy catalogue and the performance of the target selection. We also validate the clustering of the sources in our BGS catalogue by comparing with mock catalogues and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data. Finally, the robustness of the BGS selection criteria is assessed by quantifying the dependence of the target galaxy density on imaging and other properties. The largest systematic correlation we find is a 7 per cent suppression of the target density in regions of high stellar density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Self-Referencing Hartmann Test for Large-Aperture Telescopes

A method is proposed for end-to-end, full aperture testing of large-aperture telescopes using an innovative variation of a Hartmann mask. This technique is practical for telescopes with primary mirrors tens of meters in diameter and of any design. Furthermore, it is applicable to the entire optical band (near IR, visible, ultraviolet), relatively insensitive to environmental perturbations, and is suitable for ambient laboratory as well as thermal-vacuum environments. The only restriction is that the telescope optical axis must be parallel to the local gravity vector during testing. The standard Hartmann test utilizes an array of pencil beams that are cut out of a well-corrected wavefront using a mask. The pencil beam array is expanded to fill the full aperture of the telescope. The detector plane of the telescope is translated back and forth along the optical axis in the vicinity of the nominal focal plane, and the centroid of each pencil beam image is recorded. Standard analytical techniques are then used to reconstruct the telescope wavefront from the centroid data. The expansion of the array of pencil beams is usually accomplished by double passing the beams through the telescope under test. However, this requires a well-corrected, autocollimation flat, the diameter or which is approximately equal to that of the telescope aperture. Thus, the standard Hartmann method does not scale well because of the difficulty and expense of building and mounting a well-corrected, large aperture flat. The innovation in the testing method proposed here is to replace the large aperture, well-corrected, monolithic autocollimation flat with an array of small-aperture mirrors. In addition to eliminating the need for a large optic, the surface figure requirement for the small mirrors is relaxed compared to that required of the large autocollimation flat. The key point that allows this method to work is that the small mirrors need to operate as a monolithic flat only with regard to tip/tilt and not piston because in collimated space piston has no effect on the image centroids. The problem of aligning the small mirrors in tip/tilt requires a two-part solution. First, each mirror is suspended from a two-axis gimbal. The orientation of the gimbal is maintained by gravity. Second, the mirror is aligned such that the mirror normal is parallel to gravity vector. This is accomplished interferometrically in a test fixture. Of course, the test fixture itself needs to be calibrated with respect to gravity.

Korechoff, Robert P.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗