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Data Collection and Analysis Challenges and Mitigation Strategies for Quantitative Human Factors Research Studies in Nuclear Power Plant Modernization

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program Plant Modernization Pathway is conducting targeted research and development (R&D) to address aging and reliability concerns with the legacy instrumentation and control and related information systems of the U.S. LWR fleet. In this effort, the application of human factors engineering (HFE) provides an important role in ensuring new digital plant technologies enable broad innovation and business improvement with continued operational safety. Evaluation is a key activity in HFE, which often occurs iteratively through the system design lifecycle. While qualitative methods are important in collecting information of how users perform tasks through observations, quantitative methods are equally important in assessing system design based on performance. In collecting and analyzing this quantitative data, there are notable challenges in the nuclear HFE domain that may threaten the validity and reliability of the inferences made in these studies. Notable challenges include small sample size and limited resources, large error variance and small effect size, an “adding test features to losing degrees of freedom” dilemma, non-normal distribution, and heterogeneity of variance. The results in control room usability studies are often statistically non-significant, which makes it hard to interpret. This work discusses these challenges across different scientific viewpoints and provides real-world examples of these challenges in practice. Collectively, the objective of this work is to position these challenges to the larger data science community as a means of identifying future opportunities to address these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Studies of social group dynamics under isolated conditions. Objective summary of the literature as it relates to potential problems of long duration space flight

Scientific literature which deals with the study of human behavior and crew interaction in situations simulating long term space flight is summarized and organized. A bibliography of all the pertinent U.S. literature available is included, along with definitions of the behavioral characteristics terms employed. The summarized studies are analyzed according to behavioral factors and environmental conditions. The analysis consist of two matrices. (1) The matrix of factors studied correlates each research study area and individual study with the behavioral factors that were investigated in the study. (2) The matrix of conclusions identifies those studies whose investigators appeared to draw specific conclusions concerning questions of importance to NASA.

Vinograd, S. P.↗

Vibration Analysis Reduces Computer Time

Improved calculation method promises to reduce computer time by factor of 10 for vibration analysis of complex structures. Method originally developed to predict mechanical response of spacecraft to maneuvers in various cases in which same booster is used with different payloads. Method is more exact than conventional normal-mode methods; it involves no initial approximations of assumptions. Calculation cost is reduced without loss of accuracy.

Engels, R. C.↗

Alternate Methods in Refining the SLS Nozzle Plug Loads

Numerical analysis has shown that the SLS nozzle environmental barrier (nozzle plug) design is inadequate for the prelaunch condition, which consists of two dominant loads: 1) the main engines startup pressure and 2) an environmentally induced pressure. Efforts to reduce load conservatisms included a dynamic analysis which showed a 31% higher safety factor compared to the standard static analysis. The environmental load is typically approached with a deterministic method using the worst possible combinations of pressures and temperatures. An alternate probabilistic approach, utilizing the distributions of pressures and temperatures, resulted in a 54% reduction in the environmental pressure load. A Monte Carlo simulation of environmental load that used five years of historical pressure and temperature data supported the results of the probabilistic analysis, indicating the probabilistic load is reflective of a 3-sigma condition (1 in 370 probability). Utilizing the probabilistic load analysis eliminated excessive conservatisms and will prevent a future overdesign of the nozzle plug. Employing a similar probabilistic approach to other design and analysis activities can result in realistic yet adequately conservative solutions.

Burbank, Scott↗

Vibration transmission through rolling element bearings. IV - Statistical energy analysis

A theoretical broadband coupling-loss factor is developed analytically for use in the statistical energy analysis (SEA) of a shaft-bearing-plate system. The procedure is based on the solution of the boundary-value problem at the plate-bearing interface and incorporates a bearing-stiffness matrix developed by the authors. Three examples are utilized to illustrate the SEA incorporating the coupling-loss factor including: (1) a shaft-bearing-plate system; (2) a plate-cantilevered beam; and (3) a circular-shaft-bearing plate. The coupling-loss factor in the case of the thin plate-cantilevered beam is found to be more accurate than that developed by Lyon and Eichler (1964). The coupling-loss factor is described for the bearing system and extended to describe the mean-square vibratory response of a rectangular plate. The proposed techniques are of interest to the study of vibration and noise in rotating machinery such as gearboxes.

Lim, T. C.↗

Automatic Imagery Data Analysis for Proactive Computer-Based Workflow Management during Nuclear Power Plant Outages

This report is being submitted for the task “Final Report” of DOE NEUP Project 15-8121 “Automatic Imagery Data Analysis for Proactive Computer-Based Workflow Management during Nuclear Power Plant Outages.” Typical nuclear power plant (NPP) outages always involve thousands of maintenance and refueling activities and a large number of workers in limited workspaces, while having tight schedules and zero-tolerance for accidents. During an outage, thousands of workers will be working in various workspaces across the NPP. High outage costs and expensive delays (approximately 1.5 million dollars of loss per day of delay) in NPP maintenance demand tight outage schedules. In packed workspaces, an automatic system that monitors human behaviors in real-time and provides insights about current and pending schedule deviations from the plan is critical for ensuring: 1) effective collaboration among workers and worker teams from different trades; 2) less waste of time and resources due to the lack of situational awareness; and 3) proactive outage project control. The overall goal of this project is to test the hypothesis that real-time imagery-based object tracking and spatial analysis, as well as human behavior modeling of outage participants, will significantly improve the efficiency of outage control while lowering the rates of accidents and incidents. Three objectives of this project are: 1) Establish real-time object tracking and spatiotemporal analysis methods that automatically assess the productivity of field activities and detect anomalous spatiotemporal relationships among activities that cause inefficiencies and risks; 2) Establish realtime human tracking and human factor modeling methods for automatically diagnosing unexpected actions of and interactions between outage participants, those which cause inefficient collaborations between Advanced Outage Control Center (AOCC), satellite outage centers, NPP workers, and maintenance service providers; and 3) Test the proposed automated object tracking, human behavior modeling, and spatiotemporal analysis methods in outage control case studies in order to characterize the effectiveness of automated imagery-data-driven methods in proactively improving the efficiency and safety of workflows in outage coordination and risk management. Recent studies of detailed human behavior monitoring on construction sites have examined the potential of applying advanced computer vision algorithms in detecting and tracking anomalous workers (i.e., workers who do not wear hard hats or safety vests) for ensuring job site safety. Some studies of human factor studies revealed the importance of modeling detailed interactions between individuals within and across teams in better understanding the impact of human in proactive project control. Other studies in the construction domain have developed computational simulation frameworks that formalize detailed spatiotemporal interactions between tasks in order to simulate the impacts of individual tasks on the performance of workflows. While integrated analyses that combine human factor assessment, as well as image processing and simulation, are in demand for effective decision-making, limited studies have examined the potential of such integrated analyses in NPP outage control. This research project has examined an automatic outage monitoring and control system that integrates human factor analysis, computer vision techniques, and simulation methods in order to enable engineers to better understand the interactions between humans, resources, and workflows during outage processes. The project aims at providing NPP maintenance agencies insights into more efficient use of limited resources in extending the life of a nuclear plant, as well as reducing waste while ensuring sufficient generation of electricity. This study is significant for the safety of nuclear plants, sustainable electricity generation for livable communities, and cost savings for maintaining electricity infrastructures in the United States.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Integrated transcriptomic and metabolomic investigation of the genes and metabolites involved in swine follicular cyst formation

Follicular cysts are a common reproductive disorder in mammals that is usually caused by stress. However, the pathogenesis of follicular cysts in sows remains unclear. To provide new insights into the mechanisms of follicular cyst formation in pigs, we conducted a combined transcriptomic and metabolomic analysis on theca interna and mural granulosa cells of follicular cysts and mature follicles. We identified 2,533 up-regulated and 1,355 down-regulated genes in follicular cysts, compared with mature follicles. These differentially expressed genes were mainly found in signaling pathways related to tumor formation and cortisol synthesis and secretion as shown by Ingenuity Pathway Analysis, which predicted 4,362 upstream regulatory factors. The combined gene expression and pathway analysis identified the following genes as potential biomarkers for porcine follicular cysts: cytochrome P450 family 2 subfamily C polypeptide 18, L-lactate dehydrogenase, carbamoyl-phosphate synthase, fibroblast growth factor 7, integrin binding sialoprotein, interleukin 23 receptor, prolactin receptor, epiregulin, interleukin 1 receptor type II, arginine vasopressin receptor 1A, fibroblast growth factor 10, claudin 7, G Protein Subunit Gamma 3, cholecystokinin B receptor and cytosolic phospholipase A2 . Metabolomics analysis found significant differences in 87 metabolites, which were enriched in unsaturated fatty acid biosynthesis, and sphingolipid signaling pathways. These results provide valuable information on the molecular mechanisms of follicular cyst formation, which may facilitate the development of new therapeutics to prevent and treat follicular cysts.

Dai, Jiage↗

Lunar South Pole Regenerative Fuel Cell System Efficiency Analysis

It is expected that future NASA mission energy storage needs can be adequately met by regenerative fuel cells (RFCs). Aerospace RFCs package proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrochemical conversion devices based on hydrogen, oxygen, and water. To optimize system designs and direct further development, the most useful system metric is round-trip efficiency (RTE). Improving RTE generally increases specific energy and reduces system mass. The following analysis models the impact of several factors on RTE for RFCs at the lunar south pole scaling from 0.1 kW to 50 kW. The analysis demonstrates that higher electrolyzer operational pressure most negatively impacts both RFC RTE and specific energy. Optimal electrolyzer membrane thickness is evaluated as a function of operational current density and pressure. Reactant storage heating and power management losses are significant for RFCs of any scale but are reduced in impact at the south pole compared to colder equator applications. Solenoid valve power remains a noticeable parasitic load for smaller RFCs. Larger electrolyzers enable higher peak theoretical efficiencies when recharging at higher rates, if the RFC can be coupled with a corresponding higher power source. RFC design is a compromise of many interrelated factors, but this analysis provides a starting point for difficult decisions that must be made when designing a lunar south pole RFC.

regenerative fuel cell↗

Effective field theory factorization for diffraction

We derive a factorization formula for coherent and incoherent ep diffraction using the soft collinear effective theory, utilizing multiple power expansion parameters to handle different kinematic regions. This goes beyond the known hard-collinear diffractive factorization to address the small-x Regge dynamics and Pomeron exchange from first principles. The effective field theory analysis also uncovers and factorizes an important irreducible incoherent background generated by color-nonsinglet exchange, dubbed “quasi-diffraction”, for which we calculate the associated Sudakov suppression. For unpolarized scattering we show that there are four diffractive structure functions at leading power, and point out the importance of studying ${F}_{3,4}^D$ through asymmetries, in addition to ${F}_{2,L}^D$. For the quasi-diffractive background, we make model independent predictions for ratios of the corresponding structure functions in a perturbative kinematic region. Our analysis also makes predictions for six leading-power spin-dependent structure functions. Finally, we provide connections to diffractive parton distributions, and assess the Ingelman-Schlein model. Our work lays a path for further QCD-based studies of diffraction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Simple Factors Associated With Radiation-Induced Lung Toxicity After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy of the Thorax: A Pooled Analysis of 88 Studies

Purpose: To study the risk factors for radiation-induced lung toxicity (RILT) after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) of the thorax. Methods and Materials: Published studies on lung toxicity in patients with early-stage non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) or metastatic lung tumors treated with SBRT were pooled and analyzed. The primary endpoint was RILT, including pneumonitis and fibrosis. Data of RILT and risk factors were extracted from each study, and rates of grade 2 to 5 (G2+) and grade 3 to 5 (G3+) RILT were computed. Patient, tumor, and dosimetric factors were analyzed for their correlation with RILT. Results: Eighty-eight studies (7752 patients) that reported RILT incidence were eligible. The pooled rates of G2+ and G3+ RILT from all 88 studies were 9.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.15-11.4) and 1.8% (95% CI: 1.3-2.5), respectively. The median of median tumor sizes was 2.3 (range, 1.4-4.1) cm. Among the factors analyzed, older patient age (P=.044) and larger tumor size (the greatest diameter) were significantly correlated with higher rates of G2+ (P=.049) and G3+ RILT (P=.001). Patients with stage IA versus stage IB NSCLC had significantly lower risks of G2+ RILT (8.3% vs 17.1%, odds ratio = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.29-0.64, P<.0001). Among studies that provided detailed dosimetric data, the pooled analysis demonstrated a significantly higher mean lung dose (MLD) (P=.027) and V20 (P=.019) in patients with G2+ RILT than in those with grade 0 to 1 RILT. Conclusions: The overall rate of RILT is relatively low after thoracic SBRT. Older age and larger tumor size are significant adverse risk factors for RILT. Lung dosimetry, specifically lung V20 and MLD, also significantly affect RILT risk.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Source apportionment of airborne volatile organic compounds near unconventional oil and gas development

Oil and natural gas (ONG) extraction emits volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Certain VOCs are identified as hazardous air pollutants (HAPS) while others contribute to ozone formation. This study examines the impact of ONG operations on VOC levels during the development of multi-well ONG pads in suburban Broomfield, Colorado. From October 2018 to December 2020, weekly VOC measurements were taken at 18 sites across the area. These included spots near well pads, in adjacent neighborhoods, and at a background site, covering various stages of well pad development including drilling, hydraulic fracturing, flowback, and production. Analysis using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) identified six factors, including combustion, background/biogenic sources, light and complex alkanes, drilling activities, and ONG acetylene. Factors linked to local ONG activities exhibited clear temporal and spatial correlations with Broomfield well development. Benzene source analysis revealed distinct contribution gradients, with ONG-related sources notably influencing areas near the well pads, particularly in pre-production. ONG-related weekly benzene contributions varied from 9% to 63% at a community background site and 18% to 89% in a neighborhood close to a well pad.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

$\overline{B}\rightarrow D^\ast\ell\overline{\nu}$ at Non-Zero Recoil

We present preliminary results from our analysis of the form factors for the $\overline{B}\rightarrow D^\ast\ell\overline{\nu}$ decay at non-zero recoil. Our analysis includes 15 MILC asqtad ensembles with $N_f=2+1$ flavors of sea quarks and lattice spacings ranging from $a\approx 0.15$ fm down to $0.045$ fm. The valence light quarks employ the asqtad action, whereas the heavy quarks are treated using the Fermilab action. We conclude with a discussion of future plans and phenomenological implications. When combined with experimental measurements of the decay rate, our calculation will enable a determination of the CKM matrix element $|V_{cb}|$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilots taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that all of the events that caused the accident occurred well before the moment when the pilot switched to direct control. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

accident investigation↗

The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilot's taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that, rather than events following the pilot's switch to direct control, it was the events preceding the switch that led to the accident. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

X-15↗

New physics from COHERENT data with an improved quenching factor

A recent new measurement and re-analysis of past measurements suggested an improved quenching factor value and uncertainty for CsI[Na]. This implies a measurement of the COHERENT experiment of coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering that is closer to the Standard Model prediction and has less uncertainty. We illustrate the impact of this improvement by revisiting fits to the Weinberg angle, neutrino magnetic moments, neutron rms and neutrino charge radii, neutrino non-standard interactions (in particular those relevant for LMA-Dark) and new scalar as well as vector bosons. Significant improvement is observed, particularly for those scenarios coherently affecting the electroweak SM process.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Application of a Chemical Index to Aerosol Mass Spectrometry: Delta Plots and Functional Group Distributions

A better understanding of the chemical properties of organic aerosol (OA) particles will improve our ability to characterize their sources and predict their lifetime. The high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) is widely used to measure OA in real time using thermal vaporization followed by electron ionization (EI). EI creates fragment ions that can be assigned to functional groups using delta analysis, a method of classifying mass spectra according to the presence of different chemically related ion series. In this study, we demonstrate the application of delta analysis to characterize molecular structures using a new visualization method. We also use delta analysis to quantify the functional group distribution with an average absolute error of ∼5–6% for individual standard molecules, comparable to the error observed for OA mixtures from biomass and coal combustion fit with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Finally, we apply delta functional group analysis to AMS positive matrix factorization (PMF) factors across seven different field campaigns and find a similar composition across the more oxidized factors with about 55% acid and 26% alcohol groups. The analysis method described here can be applied to any HR-ToF-AMS data set to provide quantitative relative functional group distributions for OA mixtures.

aerosol↗

Analysis of the time-of-flight neutron scattering cross-section data for light water measured at the SEQUOIA spectrometer, Spallation Neutron Source (SNS)

Thermal neutron scattering cross-section data for light water available in the major nuclear data libraries observes significant differences especially at reactor operating temperatures. During the past few years there has been a renewed interest in reviewing the existing thermal scattering models and generating more accurate and reliable thermal scattering cross sections using existing experimental data and in some cases based on Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. There is a need for performing new time-of-flight experiments at high temperatures and pressures, to have a better understanding of the physics involved in the scattering process that could help improve the existing TSL data.Lack of experimental thermal scattering data for light water at high temperatures led to a new measurement campaign within the INSIDER project at the Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN). Double differential scattering cross section for light water have been measured at the SEQUOIA spectrometer based at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, United States. Several measurements have been carried out at different temperatures and pressures corresponding to liquid light water. Measurements at five different incident neutron energies Ei (8, 60, 160, 280 and 800 meV) have been carried out to help exploring different regions of the frequency spectrum. This paper presents the analysis of the dynamic structure factor and the derived frequency spectrum of light water. The analysis of the experimental data would provide one with better confidence, the behavior of thermal scattering cross sections for light water at high temperatures, knowledge of which is very important for the design of novel reactors as well as existing pressurized water reactors.

Jaiswal, V↗