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At least 721 records · Page 40

Detectability Simulations of a Near-infrared Surface Biosignature on Proxima Centauri b with Future Space Observatories

Telescope missions are currently being designed that will make direct imaging of habitable exoplanets possible in the near future, and studies are needed to quantify the detectability of biosignature features in the planet's reflectance spectrum. We simulated the detectability of a near-infrared-absorbing surface biosignature feature with simulated observations of the nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b. We modeled a biosignature spectral feature with a reflectance spectrum based on an anoxygenic photosynthetic bacterial species that has strong absorption at 1 μm, which could make it well suited for life on an M-dwarf-hosted planet. We modeled the distribution of this organism across the planet's surface based on climate states from a 3D general circulation model (GCM) that were Archean- and Proterozoic-like exo-Earth analogs. We included the GCM states' prognostically simulated water clouds and added organic haze into the Archean-like atmospheres. We simulated observations of these Proxima Centauri b scenarios with the LUVOIR-A and B telescope concepts, with LUVOIR-B serving as a proxy to the planned Habitable Worlds Observatory. We calculated the integration times necessary to detect the biosignature and found that it would be detectable on Proxima Centauri b if the organism is moderately abundant (greater than a 1%–4% global surface area coverage), as long as the atmosphere is transmitting in the wavelength range under consideration. Small amounts of methane, clouds, and haze do not greatly impede detectability. We found preliminary evidence that such a biosignature would be detectable on exoplanets within 15 pc, but further investigations are needed to corroborate this.

Exoplanet astronomy↗

Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

Source record↗

Characterization of oceanic post-cold frontal clouds and their model representation. Final report

Low-level clouds are ubiquitous over the oceans, and their impact on the Earth’ radiative budget is important. However, general circulation models (GCMs) that are used to represent our climate and its evolution still experience problems to represent their correct amount and radiative impact. In the extratropical latitudes (~30-60 N/S), cloud properties are strongly modulated by the occurrence of anti-cyclones (high pressure systems) and cyclones (low pressure systems). While deep clouds dominate in cyclones near the center and along the cold and warm fronts, low-level clouds populate the colder regions of the cyclones, and more specifically the region in the wake of the cold fronts, the post-cold frontal region (PCF). The GCMs mentioned above were found to underestimate the amount of these PCF clouds, and this caused errors in their representation of the amount of solar radiation at the surface of the southern hemisphere oceans, causing an excess in absorption and errors in long-term predictions. To better understand which processes are ill-represented in the GCMs to cause such issues, we used ground-based observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) ARM site and a high resolution regional model (called WRF) to examine the properties of PCF clouds. With the WRF model, we simulated the passage of a cold front at the ENA site using theoretically distinct representations of convection and the physics of the boundary layer. While these physical representations had little impact on the timing, structure and circulation of the cold front, we found a high sensitivity to how the large scale information was fed into the model. Errors rapidly developed if the incoming flow information was injected too far from the site, but 1000 km was found to be an optimal distance between the outer boundary and the ENA site for a realistic cold front passage. With this model, we then conducted a series of experiment where convection and boundary layer schemes were changed, and revealed that 1) the clouds were more sensitive to the convection than boundary layer schemes and 2) the interaction between the two has a large impact. Furthermore, changing the representation of the physics in the model had greater impacts on PCF clouds than changing the initial conditions. As large-scale models increase their spatial resolution, convection will eventually be resolved but it remains that their representation of the physics of the boundary layer will matter for the correct representation of shallow (low-level) clouds. Observations were used to find which large-scale information had a clear relationship with PCF cloud and precipitation properties, in view of helping with GCM parameterizations and evaluation. Both lower troposphere stability and surface forcing were found to be important for PCF clouds that experience more vigorous dynamics than their tropical or subtropical counterparts. For cloud base and top heights, a simple measure of the change in potential temperature between the surface and the 800 hPa was found to be a good predictor. This relationship was found to hold as well when using data from campaigns recently conducted in the southern ocean south of Tasmania. A recent GCM was found to succeed in representing similar relations. For cloud depth, water content, and different characteristics of precipitation both the temperature contrast between the surface and near-air and the near-surface wind speed had a strong relationship. To summarize, through observational constraints and regional model experiments, the project has provided guidance to evaluate GCMs and tools to improve their representation of low-level clouds in the extratropics. It has also highlighted differences in behavior between these clouds and those typically found in the subtropics, thus opening new avenues of research for shallow clouds in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combining regional mesh refinement with vertically enhanced physics to target marine stratocumulus biases as demonstrated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1

Abstract. In this paper we develop a novel framework aimed to significantly reduce biases related to marine stratocumulus clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) while circumventing excessive computational cost requirements. Our strategy is to increase the horizontal resolution using a regionally refined mesh (RRM) over our region of interest in addition to using the Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (FIVE) to increase the vertical resolution only for specific physical processes that are important for stratocumulus. We apply the RRM off the coast of Peru in the southeastern Pacific, a region that climatologically contains the most marine stratocumulus in the subtropics. We find that our new modeling framework is able to replicate the results of our high-resolution benchmark simulation with much fidelity, while reducing the computational cost by several orders of magnitude. In addition, this framework is able to greatly reduce the long-standing biases associated with marine stratocumulus in GCMs when compared to the standard-resolution control simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design for and efficient dynamic climate model with realistic geography

The long term climate sensitivity which include realistic atmospheric dynamics are severely restricted by the expense of integrating atmospheric general circulation models are discussed. Taking as an example models used at GSFC for this dynamic model is an alternative which is of much lower horizontal or vertical resolution. The model of Heid and Suarez uses only two levels in the vertical and, although it has conventional grid resolution in the meridional direction, horizontal resolution is reduced by keeping only a few degrees of freedom in the zonal wavenumber spectrum. Without zonally asymmetric forcing this model simulates a day in roughly 1/2 second on a CRAY. The model under discussion is a fully finite differenced, zonally asymmetric version of the Heid-Suarez model. It is anticipated that speeds can be obtained a few seconds a day roughly 50 times faster than moderate resolution, multilayer GCM's.

Suarez, M. J.↗

Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the GISS GCM: Tropospheric Chemistry Model Description and Evaluation - Part 1

A tropospheric chemistry module has been developed for use within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to study interactions between chemistry and climate change. The model uses a simplified chemistry scheme based on CO-NOx-CH4 chemistry, and also includes a parameterization for emissions of isoprene, the most important non-methane hydrocarbon. The model reproduces present day annual cycles and mean distributions of key trace gases fairly well, based on extensive comparisons with available observations. Examining the simulated change between present day and pre-industrial conditions, we find that the model has a similar response to that seen in other simulations. It shows a 45% increase in the global tropospheric ozone burden, within the 25% - 57% range seen in other studies. Annual average zonal mean ozone increases by more than 125% at Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes near the surface. Comparison of model runs that allow the calculated ozone to interact with the GCM's radiation and meteorology with those that do not shows only minor differences for ozone. The common usage of ozone fields that are not calculated interactively seems to be adequate to simulate both the present day and the pre-industrial ozone distributions. However, use of coupled chemistry does alter the change in tropospheric oxidation capacity, enlarging the overall decrease in OH concentrations from the pre-industrial to the present by about 10% (-5.3% global annual average in uncoupled mode, -5.9% in coupled mode). This indicates that there may be systematic biases in the simulation of the pre-industrial to present day decrease in the oxidation capacity of the troposphere (though a 10% difference is well within the total uncertainty). Global annual average radiative forcing from pre-industrial to present day ozone change is 0.32 W/sq m. The forcing seems to be increased by about 10% when the chemistry is coupled to the GCM. Forcing values greater than 0.8 W/sq m are seen over large areas of the United States, Southern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Arctic. Radiative forcing is greater than 1.5 W/sq m over parts of these areas during Northern summer Though there are local differences, the radiative forcing is overall in good agreement with the results of other modeling studies in both its magnitude and spatial distribution, demonstrating that the simplified chemistry is adequate for climate studies.

Shindell, Drew T.↗

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1∕8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

extreme climate index↗

Multi-Sensor Cloud and Aerosol Retrieval Simulator and Remote Sensing from Model Parameters : Aerosols - Part 2

The Multi-sensor Cloud Retrieval Simulator (MCRS) produces a simulated radiance product from any high-resolution general circulation model with interactive aerosol as if a specific sensor such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were viewing a combination of the atmospheric column and land ocean surface at a specific location. Previously the MCRS code only included contributions from atmosphere and clouds in its radiance calculations and did not incorporate properties of aerosols. In this paper we added a new aerosol properties module to the MCRS code that allows users to insert a mixture of up to 15 different aerosol species in any of 36 vertical layers. This new MCRS code is now known as MCARS (Multi-sensor Cloud and Aerosol Retrieval Simulator). Inclusion of an aerosol module into MCARS not only allows for extensive, tightly controlled testing of various aspects of satellite operational cloud and aerosol properties retrieval algorithms, but also provides a platform for comparing cloud and aerosol models against satellite measurements. This kind of two-way platform can improve the efficacy of model parameterizations of measured satellite radiances, allowing the assessment of model skill consistently with the retrieval algorithm. The MCARS code provides dynamic controls for appearance of cloud and aerosol layers. Thereby detailed quantitative studies of the impacts of various atmospheric components can be controlled. In this paper we illustrate the operation of MCARS by deriving simulated radiances from various data field output by the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model. The model aerosol fields are prepared for translation to simulated radiance using the same model sub grid variability parameterizations as are used for cloud and atmospheric properties profiles, namely the ICA technique. After MCARS computes modeled sensor radiances equivalent to their observed counterparts, these radiances are presented as input to operational remote-sensing algorithms. Specifically, the MCARS-computed radiances are input into the processing chain used to produce the MODIS Data Collection 6 aerosol product (MOYD04). TheMOYD04 product is of course normally produced from MOYD021KM MODIS Level-1B radiance product directly acquired by the MODIS instrument. MCARS matches the format and metadata of a MOYD021KM product. The resulting MCARS output can be directly provided to MODAPS (MODIS Adaptive Processing System) as input to various operational atmospheric retrieval algorithms. Thus the operational algorithms can be tested directly without needing to make any software changes to accommodate an alternative input source. We show direct application of this synthetic product in analysis of the performance of the MOD04 operational algorithm. We use biomass-burning case studies over Amazonia employed in a recent Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)-sponsored study of aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction (Freitas et al., 2015). We demonstrate that a known low bias in retrieved MODIS aerosol optical depth appears to be due to a disconnect between actual column relative humidity and the value assumed by the MODIS aerosol product.

aerosol retrieval↗

Modeling South Pacific Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Global Climate System

The objective of this project has been to improve the modeling of interactions between large Antarctic ice shelves and adjacent regions of the Southern Ocean. Our larger goal is to gain a better understanding of the extent to which the ocean controls ice shelf attrition, thereby influencing the size and dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Melting and freezing under ice shelves also impacts seawater properties, regional upwelling and sinking and the larger-scale ocean circulation. Modifying an isopycnal coordinate general circulation model for use in sub-ice shelf cavities, we found that the abrupt change in water column thickness at an ice shelf front does not form a strong barrier to buoyancy-driven circulation across the front. Outflow along the ice shelf base, driven by melting of the thickest ice, is balanced by deep inflow. Substantial effort was focused on the Filchner-Ronne cavity, where other models have been applied and time-series records are available from instruments suspended beneath the ice. A model comparison indicated that observed changes in the production of High Salinity Shelf Water could have a major impact on circulation within the cavity. This water propagates into the cavity with an asymmetric seasonal signal that has similar phasing and shape in the model and observations, and can be related to winter production at the sea surface. Even remote parts of the sub-ice shelf cavity are impacted by external forcing on sub-annual time scales. This shows that cavity circulations and products, and therefore cavity shape, will respond to interannual variability in sea ice production and longer-term climate change. The isopycnal model gives generally lower net melt rates than have been obtained from other models and oceanographic data, perhaps due to its boundary layer formulation, or the lack of tidal forcing. Work continues on a manuscript describing the Ross cavity results.

Holland, David M.↗

Ocean Turbulence I: One-Point Closure Model Momentum and Heat Vertical Diffusivities

Since the early forties, one-point turbulence closure models have been the canonical tools used to describe turbulent flows in many fields. In geophysics, Mellor and Yamada applied such models using the 1980 state-of-the art. Since then, no improvements were introduced to alleviate two major difficulties: 1) closure of the pressure correlations, which affects the correct determination of the critical Richardson number Ri(sub cr) above which turbulent mixing is no longer possible and 2) the need to express the non-local third-order moments (TOM) in terms of lower order moments rather than via the down-gradient approximation as done thus far, since the latter seriously underestimates the TOMs. Since 1) and 2) are still being dealt with adjustable parameters which weaken the credibility of the models, alternative models, not based on turbulence modeling, have been suggested. The aim of this paper is to show that new information, partly derived from the newest 2-point closure model discussed, can be used to solve these shortcomings. The new one-point closure model, which in its simplest form is algebraic and thus simple to implement, is first shown to reproduce a variety of data. Then, it is used in a Ocean-General Circulation Model (O-GCM) where it reproduces well a large variety of ocean data. While phenomenological models are specifically tuned to ocean turbulence, the present model is not. It is first tested against laboratory data on stably stratified flows and then used in an O-GCM. It is more general, more predictive and more resilient, e.g., it can incorporate phenomena like wave-breaking at the surface, salinity diffusivity, non-locality, etc. One important feature that naturally comes out of the new model is that the predicted Richardson critical value Ri(sub cr) is Ri (sub cr approx. = 1) in agreement with both Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and empirical evidence while all previous models predicted Ri (sub cr approx. = 0.2) which led to a considerable underestimate of the extent of turbulent mixing and thus to an incorrect mixed layer depth. The predicted temperature and salinity profiles (vs. depth) are presented and compared with those of the Kolmogorov-Petruvsky-Piskunuv (KPP) model and Levitus data.

Canuto, V. M.↗

Preliminary Evaluation of GEOS-5 Aerosol and CO Distributions Forecast During TC4

The NASA Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) Mission was based out San Jose, Costa Rica during July and August 2007. During TC4 the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) ran twice-daily 0.5 x 0.666 global 5-day forecasts of the Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system (GEOS-5). This implementation of GEOS-5 contained an aerosol and carbon monoxide (CO) model to provide online forecast tropospheric distributions of dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols and CO for both the planning of flights and for science. Here we provide a description of the aerosol and CO modeling system and give a preliminary evaluation of forecast tracer distributions. Our comparisons to satellite observations of aerosol and CO show qualitatively similar simulated distributions of tracers to those observed. During TC4 copious amounts of dust were observed in the Caribbean. The model generally reproduced the observations of the timing of dust events and the vertical structure in the lower atmosphere. However, the model simulations had too much aerosol at high altitudes relative to airborne Cloud Physics Lidar observations. The results were similar for biomass burning aerosol and CO tracers, where the model showed higher simulated concentrations of these tracers at aircraft flight altitude than observations.

Colarco, Peter R.↗

Thermodynamic balance of three-dimensional stratospheric winds derived from a data assimilation procedure

The NASA/Goddard three-dimensional chemistry and transport model is driven by winds from a stratospheric data assimilation system. Synoptic- and planetary-scale patterns, apparent in satellite observations of trace constituents, are successfully reproduced for seasonal integrations. As model integrations proceed, however, the quality of simulations decreases, and systematic differences between calculation and measurement appear. The differences are explained by examining the zonal-mean residual circulation. The vertical velocity w-bar (sup star) is calculated two ways: (1) from the diabatic heating rates and temperature tendency and (2) from the Eulerian vertical velocity and the horizontal eddy heat flux convergence. The results from these calculations differ substantially. Periodic insertion of observational data during the assimilation process continually shocks the general circulation model and produces these differences, which leads to an overestimate of the mean vertical heat and cconstituent transport. Such differences are expected to be general to all data assimilation products. This interpretation is corroborated by two-dimensional (2D) model calculations. When w-bar(sup star) is calculated from (2), the 2D ozone evolution is unrealistic and qualitatively similar to the 3D model simulation. The 2D ozone evolution is reasonable when w-bar (sup star) from (1).

Weaver, Clark J.↗

Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in the frequency of the most intense TCs over most domains. Finally, our study shows robust responses often, but not always, in line with previous studies, still implying the presence of significant uncertainties in the projection of TC characteristics, which need to be addressed using large ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A protocol and analysis of year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models and beyond

We propose a protocol to evaluate and analyze year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models (GSRMs). The proposed protocol complements an earlier 40-day simulation protocol under the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains) project to allow the analysis of the seasonal cycle and associated climatic relevant phenomena. This intercomparison aims to reveal how GSRMs, which can simulate mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the global domain, reproduce atmospheric large-scale structures related to convection beyond month-long simulations. The intercomparison for one-year simulations is conducted by either atmosphere-only models or atmosphere–ocean coupled models with atmospheric horizontal mesh sizes less than 5 km. We recommend the continuous four seasons from March 2020 to February 2021 as a target period for the intercomparison but with options for many groups to join more flexibly. The output variables are collected at 0.25° resolution, and archives of a small set of native grid variables are encouraged to analyze tropical cyclones and MCSs. Through the proposed global storm-resolving simulation, we will evaluate the climatological distributions of the atmospheric large-scale circulations, such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoon, midlatitude jets, their time evolution, and the upscale impacts on them. We present sample analyses from a one-year simulation using the 3.5 km mesh Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), revealing the realistic zonal contrast of tropical precipitation, no double ITCZ structure, the reasonable midlatitude jet position and intensity but a weak bias of storm track activities, and a warm bias over the Eurasia during boreal winter. We also clarify the cross-scale interaction, such as the effects of cold pools on mean precipitation over the Maritime Continent through the precipitation diurnal cycle and the effects of resolved gravity waves on midlatitude mean flows. The proposed one-year simulation protocol is referred to as the “Sendai Protocol.” This protocol is not unique or definite for evaluating GSRMs; we prospect a hierarchical set of experiments from short-term to multi-year simulations as GSRM intercomparisons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Continuing Development of a Hybrid Model (VSH) of the Neutral Thermosphere

We propose to continue the development of a new operational model of neutral thermospheric density, composition, temperatures and winds to improve current engineering environment definitions of the neutral thermosphere. This model will be based on simulations made with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-Ionosphere- Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) and on empirical data. It will be capable of using real-time geophysical indices or data from ground-based and satellite inputs and provides neutral variables at specified locations and times. This "hybrid" model will be based on a Vector Spherical Harmonic (VSH) analysis technique developed (over the last 8 years) at the University of Michigan that permits the incorporation of the TIGCM outputs and data into the model. The VSH model will be a more accurate version of existing models of the neutral thermospheric, and will thus improve density specification for satellites flying in low Earth orbit (LEO).

Burns, Alan↗

Global Propagation of Gravity Waves Generated with the Whole Atmosphere Transfer Function Model

A brief review is presented of the Transfer Function Model (TFM) [e.g., Mayr et al., Space Science Reviews, 1990], which describes acoustic gravity waves (AGW) that propagate across the globe in a dissipative and static (no winds) background atmosphere with globally uniform temperature and density variations extending from the ground to 700 km. Unique among existing models, the TFM can be placed between the analytical approach on one end, and the rigorous numerical approach of general circulation models (GCM). The time consuming numerical integration of the conservation equations is restricted to compute the transfer function (TF) for a broad range of frequencies and spherical harmonics. Given TF, the atmospheric response for a chosen source configuration is then obtained in short order. Computationally efficient, the model is well suited to serve as experimental and educational tool for simulating propagating wave patterns across the globe. By design, the TFM is also semi-analytical and therefore well suited to explore the different wave modes that can be generated under different dynamical conditions.

Transfer Function Model↗

GCAP 2.0: A Global 3-D Chemical-Transport Model Framework for Past, Present, and Future Climate Scenarios

This manuscript describes version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). Meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem has been archived from the E2.1 contributions to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the preindustrial and recent past. In addition, meteorology is available for the near future and end-of-the century for seven future scenarios ranging from extreme mitigation to extreme warming. Emissions and boundary conditions have been prepared for input to GEOS-Chem that are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. The model meteorology, emissions, transport and chemistry are evaluated in the recent past and found to be largely consistent with GEOS-Chem driven by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) product and with observational constraints.

Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model↗

Increasing Contribution of the Atmospheric Vertical Motion to Precipitation in a Warming Climate

Global warming already influences precipitation, with more intense precipitation in many locations. Although the ‘wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier’ tendency in mean precipitation holds in many locations, the situations for precipitation extremes are more complex, due to changes in dynamic and thermodynamic influences on atmospheric moisture distributions. Here, we build a dynamically interactive atmospheric moisture model for the present (2006–2025) and the future climate (2081–2100), using outputs from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. We find that the dynamic process of vertical advection of moisture dominates the same-day precipitation, while the smaller impact of the thermodynamic process provides available moisture for several days. As climate warms, we find that the dynamical-induced precipitation more completely exhausts the vertically-integrated moisture and the distribution of the dynamic process’s impact on precipitation exhibits a greater spread in the warmer future. The dynamical process is primarily responsible for more extreme heavy precipitation as climate warms, at all latitudes.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗