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At least 721 records · Page 40

From Images to Dark Matter: End-to-end Inference of Substructure from Hundreds of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Abstract Constraining the distribution of small-scale structure in our universe allows us to probe alternatives to the cold dark matter paradigm. Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique window into small dark matter halos (<10 10 M ⊙ ) because these halos impart a gravitational lensing signal even if they do not host luminous galaxies. We create large data sets of strong lensing images with realistic low-mass halos, Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observational effects, and galaxy light from HST’s COSMOS field. Using a simulation-based inference pipeline, we train a neural posterior estimator of the subhalo mass function (SHMF) and place constraints on populations of lenses generated using a separate set of galaxy sources. We find that by combining our network with a hierarchical inference framework, we can both reliably infer the SHMF across a variety of configurations and scale efficiently to populations with hundreds of lenses. By conducting precise inference on large and complex simulated data sets, our method lays a foundation for extracting dark matter constraints from the next generation of wide-field optical imaging surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bootstrap inversion technique for atmospheric trace gas source detection and quantification using long open-path laser measurements

Advances in natural gas extraction technology have led to increased activity in the production and transport sectors in the United States and, as a consequence, an increased need for reliable monitoring of methane leaks to the atmosphere. We present a statistical methodology in combination with an observing system for the detection and attribution of fugitive emissions of methane from distributed potential source location landscapes such as natural gas production sites. We measure long (> 500 m), integrated open-path concentrations of atmospheric methane using a dual frequency comb spectrometer and combine measurements with an atmospheric transport model to infer leak locations and strengths using a novel statistical method, the non-zero minimum bootstrap (NZMB). The new statistical method allows us to determine whether the empirical distribution of possible source strengths for a given location excludes zero. Using this information, we identify leaking source locations (i.e., natural gas wells) through rejection of the null hypothesis that the source is not leaking. The method is tested with a series of synthetic data inversions with varying measurement density and varying levels of model–data mismatch. It is also tested with field observations of (1) a non-leaking source location and (2) a source location where a controlled emission of 3.1 &times; 10 -5 kg s -1 of methane gas is released over a period of several hours. This series of synthetic data tests and outdoor field observations using a controlled methane release demonstrates the viability of the approach for the detection and sizing of very small leaks of methane across large distances (4 + km 2 in synthetic tests). The field tests demonstrate the ability to attribute small atmospheric enhancements of 17 ppb to the emitting source location against a background of combined atmospheric (e.g., background methane variability) and measurement uncertainty of 5 ppb (1 σ ), when measurements are averaged over 2 min. The results of the synthetic and field data testing show that the new observing system and statistical approach greatly decreases the incidence of false alarms (that is, wrongly identifying a well site to be leaking) compared with the same tests that do not use the NZMB approach and therefore offers increased leak detection and sizing capabilities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

IUE observations of RW Hydrae /gM2 + pec/

Analysis of the intense UV continuum observed between 1100 and 2000 A suggested that observations of the late type star RW Hya is a binary system in which the secondary is the central star of a planetary nebula. The UV spectrum is characterized by semiforbidden and allowed transition lines, of which the C IV doublet is particularly strong. Tidal interaction from the M giant is proposed as a method of forming a nebula with the characteristic densities inferred from the UV line analysis. RW Hya is suggested as a possible source of soft X-ray emission if material is accreting onto the surface of the secondary.

Kafatos, M.↗

Cosmic-ray exposure records and origins of meteorites

The cosmic-ray records of meteorites are used to infer much about their origins and recent histories. The methods used to interpret meteorites' cosmic-ray records, especially identifying simple or complex exposure histories, often are inadequate. Spallogenic radionuclides, stable nuclides, and measurements of products that have location-sensitive production rates, such as the tracks of heavy cosmic-ray nuclei or neutron-capture nuclides, are very useful in accurately determining a meteorite's history. Samples from different, known locations of a meteorite help in studying the cosmic-ray record. Such extensive sets of meteorite measuremetns, plus theoretical modeling of complex histories, improves the ability to predict the production of cosmogenic nuclides in meteorites, to distinguish simple and complex exposure histories, and to better determine exposure ages.

Reedy, R. C.↗

Design of a Flush Airdata System (FADS) for the Hypersonic Air Launched Option (HALO) Vehicle

This paper presents a design study for a pressure based Flush airdata system (FADS) on the Hypersonic Air Launched Option (HALO) Vehicle. The analysis will demonstrate the feasibility of using a pressure based airdata system for the HALO and provide measurement uncertainty estimates along a candidate trajectory. The HALO is a conceived as a man-rated vehicle to be air launched from an SR-71 platform and is proposed as a testbed for an airbreathing hydrogen scramjet. A feasibility study has been performed and indicates that the proposed trajectory is possible with minimal modifications to the existing SR71 vehicle. The mission consists of launching the HALO off the top of an SR-71 at Mach 3 and 80,000 ft. A rocket motor is then used to accelerate the vehicle to the test condition. After the scramjet test is completed the vehicle will glide to a lakebed runway landing. This option provides reusability of the vehicle and scramjet engine. The HALO design will also allow for various scramjet engine and flowpath designs to be flight tested. For the HALO flights, measurements of freestream airdata are considered to be a mission critical to perform gain scheduling and trajectory optimization. One approach taken to obtaining airdata involves measurement of certain parameters such as external atmospheric winds, temperature, etc to estimate the airdata quantities. This study takes an alternate approach. Here the feasibility of obtaining airdata using a pressure-based flush airdata system (FADS) methods is assessed. The analysis, although it is performed using the HALO configuration and trajectory, is generally applicable to other hypersonic vehicles. The method to be presented offers the distinct advantage of inferring total pressure, Mach number, and flow incidence angles, without stagnating the freestream flow. This approach allows for airdata measurements to be made using blunt surfaces and significantly diminishes the heating load at the sensor. In the FADS concept a matrix of flush ports is placed in the vicinity of the aircraft nose, and the airdata are inferred indirectly from the measured pressures.

Whitmore, Stephen A.↗

Pressure Gradient Effects on Hypersonic Cavity Flow Heating

The effect of a pressure gradient on the local heating disturbance of rectangular cavities tested at hypersonic freestream conditions has been globally assessed using the two-color phosphor thermography method. These experiments were conducted in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel and were initiated in support of the Space Shuttle Return-To-Flight Program. Two blunted-nose test surface geometries were developed, including an expansion plate test surface with nearly constant negative pressure gradient and a flat plate surface with nearly zero pressure gradient. The test surface designs and flow characterizations were performed using two-dimensional laminar computational methods, while the experimental boundary layer state conditions were inferred using the measured heating distributions. Three-dimensional computational predictions of the entire model geometry were used as a check on the design process. Both open-flow and closed-flow cavities were tested on each test surface. The cavity design parameters and the test condition matrix were established using the computational predictions. Preliminary conclusions based on an analysis of only the cavity centerline data indicate that the presence of the pressure gradient did not alter the open cavity heating for laminar-entry/laminar-exit flows, but did raise the average floor heating for closed cavities. The results of these risk-reduction studies will be used to formulate a heating assessment of potential damage scenarios occurring during future Space Shuttle flights.

Everhart, Joel L.↗

Upper Torso Control for HOAP-2 Using Neural Networks

Humanoid robots have similar physical builds and motion patterns as humans. Not only does this provide a suitable operating environment for the humanoid but it also opens up many research doors on how humans function. The overall objective is replacing humans operating in unsafe environments. A first target application is assembly of structures for future lunar-planetary bases. The initial development platform is a Fujitsu HOAP-2 humanoid robot. The goal for the project is to demonstrate the capability of a HOAP-2 to autonomously construct a cubic frame using provided tubes and joints. This task will require the robot to identify several items, pick them up, transport them to the build location, then properly assemble the structure. The ability to grasp and assemble the pieces will require improved motor control and the addition of tactile feedback sensors. In recent years, learning-based control is becoming more and more popular; for implementing this method we will be using the Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). When using neural networks for control, no complex models of the system must be constructed in advance-only input/output relationships are required to model the system.

Sandoval, Steven P.↗

Pressure Gradient Effects on Hypersonic Cavity Flow Heating

The effect of a pressure gradient on the local heating disturbance of rectangular cavities tested at hypersonic freestream conditions has been globally assessed using the two-color phosphor thermography method. These experiments were conducted in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel and were initiated in support of the Space Shuttle Return-To-Flight Program. Two blunted-nose test surface geometries were developed, including an expansion plate test surface with nearly constant negative pressure gradient and a flat plate surface with nearly zero pressure gradient. The test surface designs and flow characterizations were performed using two-dimensional laminar computational methods, while the experimental boundary layer state conditions were inferred using the measured heating distributions. Three-dimensional computational predictions of the entire model geometry were used as a check on the design process. Both open-flow and closed-flow cavities were tested on each test surface. The cavity design parameters and the test condition matrix were established using the computational predictions. Preliminary conclusions based on an analysis of only the cavity centerline data indicate that the presence of the pressure gradient did not alter the open cavity heating for laminar-entry/laminar-exit flows, but did raise the average floor heating for closed cavities. The results of these risk-reduction studies will be used to formulate a heating assessment of potential damage scenarios occurring during future Space Shuttle flights.

Everhart, Joel L.↗

On the Nature of the Variability Power Decay towards Soft Spectral States in X-Ray Binaries. Case Study in Cyg X-1

A characteristic feature of the Fourier Power Density Spectrum (PDS) observed from black hole X-ray binaries in low/hard and intermediate spectral states is a broad band-limited noise, characterized by a constant below some frequency (a "break" frequency) and a power law above this frequency. It has been shown that the variability of this type can be produced by the inward diffusion of the local driving perturbations in a bounded configuration (accretion disk or corona). In the framework of this model, the perturbation diffusion time to is related to the phenomenological break frequency, while the PDS power-law slope above the "break" is determined by the viscosity distribution over the configuration. The perturbation diffusion scenario explains the decay of the power of X-ray variability observed in a number of compact sources (containing black hole and neutron star) during an evolution of theses sources from low/hard to high/soft states. We compare the model predictions with the subset of data from Cyg X-1 collected by the Rossi X-ray Time Explorer (RXTE). Our extensive analysis of the Cyg X-1 PDSs demonstrates that the observed integrated power P(sub x), decreases approximately as a square root of the characteristic frequency of the driving oscillations v(sub dr). The RXTE observations of Cyg X-1 allow us to infer P(sub dr), and t(sub o) as a function of v(sub dr). We also apply the basic parameters of observed PDSs, power-law index and low frequency quasiperiodic oscillations. to infer Reynolds (Re) number from the observations using the method developed in our previous paper. Our analysis shows that Re-number increases from values about 10 in low/hard state to that about 70 during the high/soft state. Subject headings: accretion, accretion disks-black hole physics-stars:individual (Cyg X-1) :radiation mechanisms: nonthermal-physical data and processes

Titarchuk, Lev↗

Effect of Ceramic Ball and Hybrid Stainless Steel Bearing/Wheel Combinations on the Lifetime of a Precision Translation Stage for the SIM Flight Project

A study of hybrid material couples using the Spiral Orbit Tribometer (SOT) was initiated to investigate both lubricated (Pennzane X2000 and Brayco 815Z) and unlubricated Si3N4, 440C SS, Rex 20, Cronidur X30 and X40 plates with Cerbec SN-101-C (Si3N4) and 440C balls. The hybrid wheel/bearing assembly will be used on the Linear Optical Delay Line (LODL) stage as an element of the NASA Space Interferometry Mission (SIM). SIM is an orbiting interferometer linking a pair of telescopes within the spacecraft and, by using an interferometry technique and several precision optical stages, is able to measure the motions of known stars much better than current ground or space based systems. This measurement will provide the data to "infer" the existence of any plants, undetectable by other methods, orbiting these known stars.

Lo, C. John↗

GRB 091127: The Cooling Break Race on Magnetic Fuel

Using high-quality, broad-band afterglow data for GRB 091127, we investigate the validity of the synchrotron fireball model for gamma-ray bursts, and infer physical parameters of the ultra-relativistic outflow. Methods. We used multi-wavelength (NIR to X-ray) follow-up observations obtained with GROND simultaneously in the g' r' t' i' z' JH filters and the XRT onboard the Swift satellite in the 0.3 to 10 keY energy range. The resulting afterglow light curve is of excellent accuracy with relative photometric errors as low as 1 %, and the spectral energy distribution (SED) is well-sampled over 5 decades in energy. These data present one of the most comprehensive observing campaigns for a single GRB afterglow and allow us to test several proposed emission models and outflow characteristics in unprecedented detail. Results. Both the multi-color light curve and the broad-band SED of the afterglow of GRB 091127 show evidence of a cooling break moving from high to lower energies. The early light curve is well described by a broken power-law, where the initial decay in the optical/NlR wavelength range is considerably flatter than at X-rays. Detailed fitting of the time-resolved SED shows that the break is very smooth with a sharpness index of 2.2 +/- 0.2, and evolves towards lower frequencies as a power-law with index -1.23 +/- 0.06. These are the first accurate and contemporaneous measurements of both the sharpness of the spectral break and its time evolution. Conclusions. The measured evolution of the cooling break (V(sub c) varies as t(sup -1.2) is not consistent with the predictions of the standard model, wherein V(sub c) varies as t(sup -05) is expected. A possible explanation for the observed behavior is a time dependence of the microphysical parameters, in particular the fraction of the total energy in the magnetic field epsilon(sub Beta). This conclusion provides further evidence that the standard fireball model is too simplistic, and time-dependent micro-physical parameters may be required to model the growing number of well-sampled afterglow light curves.

Filgas, R.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-11045-DND

The International TOVS Working Group (ITWG) is convened as a sub-group of the International Radiation Commission (IRC) of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (IAMAP). The ITWG continues to organize international TOVS study conferences which have met approximately every 18 months since 1983. The most recent conference, the seventeenth International TOVS Study Conference (ITSC-XVII) was held in Monterey, California from 12 to 20 April 2010. This report will cover the current ITWG status, objectives, activities, along with recommendations formulated during the recent ITSC conference to be forwarded to space agencies, operational NWP centers and the scientific community on issues ranging from data processing methods, derived products, and the impacts of radiances and inferred atmospheric temperature and moisture fields on numerical weather prediction, and weather and climate studies. Also to be reported on are activities of the technical sub-groups which meet informally to coordinate ATOVS processing software, radiative transfer models, sounding data for climate studies, use of sounding data in data assimilation/NWP, international issues, and future systems and frequency protection issues relevant to ATOVS. As the result of ITSC-XVII, a paper report and electronic proceedings are being formulated and will soon be published and distributed. The conference Working Group Report will summarize the recommendations and actions of these working sub-groups. Technical Proceedings of the scientific presentations and posters will also published. The ITWG web site (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/itwg/) contains electronic versions of the conference papers, presentations and posters from earlier ITSCs. Together, these documents and web pages reflect the conduct of highly successful international collaborations.

Steve English↗

Thermal Modeling and Testing of High-Temperature Refractory Ceramic Insulation Felts

Heat transfer in high-temperature, high-porosity, flexible refractory ceramic fibrous insulation felts is investigated. Heat transfer in these insulation materials consists of combined gas conduction, solid conduction, and radiation modes, with the precise theoretical modeling of the latter two modes being formidable. A semi-empirical model that requires inverse methods and steady-state thermal test data to infer some of the required model parameters is further developed in this study, and applied to five insulation materials for temperatures between 300 K and 1900 K. The steady-state thermal test setup at NASA Langley Research Center with recent modifications to increase its testing capability to 1900 K is discussed. Design considerations to ensure one-dimensional heat transfer in the test setup are described. Test data and corresponding thermal models for alumina and zirconia-based fibrous insulation felts are presented. Furthermore, test data and thermal models on two fibrous insulation samples containing additives to further suppress either radiation or gas conduction modes of heat transfer are presented. Previously published alumina-based insulation data are also re-processed using the updated modeling methodology. The significance of various heat transfer modes in typical insulation samples is discussed and used to provide general guidance on optimum insulation layups.

Kamran Daryabeigi↗

The Next Generation of Lightning Mapping

With the removal of the Lightning Imaging Sensor from the International Space Station, a gap has opened in lightning observation from low-Earth orbit. The CubeSpark mission concept aims to fill this role using a constellation of satellites with radio frequency (RF) sensors and bi-spectral optical imagers to observe lightning flashes more completely and with better resolution than is currently possible from space. In this study, we assess the feasibility of multiple methods of not only mapping lightning locations, but also inferring 3D flash and charge structures. This is done primarily by simulating lightning emissions in the very high frequency (VHF) band, modeling their propagation to orbital sensors, and reconstructing their locations using time-of-arrival (TOA) minimization algorithms. Constellation shape, number, and atmospheric conditions are varied in order to quantify the three main sources of geolocation error: geometric, ionospheric, and instrumental effects. The promising results presented here demonstrate 3D resolution better than 1-2 km in many cases, enabling new applications in meteorology and climate sciences.

CubeSpark↗

A Data Processing Pipeline for Adversarial Socio-Technical Network Analysis

With the rapid adoption of emerging technologies, there is a need to catalog and model sociotechnical interdependencies that have been historically used to influence the operation of Critical Infrastructure networks including the impacts of mergers and acquisitions, hostile takeovers, and foreign investment. Our research intends to address this need with two primary contributions. First, we have developed a data curation and processing pipeline to generate sociotechnical networks extracted from a variety of data sources including SEC filings and infrastructure asset databases. The pipeline, implemented in Apache Airflow, extracts and normalizes the representation of entities and relations, specified within ontologies. Our intent is to provide an extensible, machine-actionable approach to quickly communicate such models, reproduce previous results, and adapt them to new, unanticipated situations. Second, networks produced by our pipeline enable the development of graph-theoretic metrics that consider the properties of network components in addition to its topology. Metadata associated with network components---whether semantic, temporal, or geospatial---affects the alignment of generated networks with assumptions underlying complexity metrics. Validation of generated networks relative to component types defined by an ontology, may allow the research community to adapt metrics to the semantics of the domains being studied. Generated networks may be processed as knowledge, dynamic, or spatial graphs and enables a variety of analyses including automated reasoning and measures of network complexity. Automated reasoning views extracted entities and relations as a knowledge graph; this enables application of inference rules that represent historically-attested adversarial business methods and applies that behavior to a specific geographic context. Measures of network complexity, including degree distribution, reachability analyses, temporal analysis, and community detection can be adapted to indicate adversarial organizational influence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Measurements of three-flavor neutrino oscillations from a PISCES two-detector fit to the NOvA Experiment data

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA s primary physics goals are to measure the neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ with high precision, determine the neutrino mass hierarchy, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, primarily via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. Extracting values for oscillation parameters from fits to data usually relies on treating systematic uncertainties as nuisance parameters, a strategy that suffers from poor scalability as the number of uncertainties becomes larger. This work introduces PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics), a novel method that circumvents this scalability problem by encoding systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix. PISCES utilizes a nested minimization in which optimal systematic pulls are first computed using the covariance matrix in an inner minimization step, then the oscillation parameters are profiled over in the outer minimization. PISCES also uses a Poisson Likelihood term, making it ideal for the inclusion of low-statistic samples in the fits. PISCES is a flexible framework that also supports complex fits, such as a joint Near and Far detector fit. In the standard NOvA analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data indirectly constrain the FD prediction via a ratio method. PISCES, on the other hand, enables a simultaneous ND+FD fit, allowing the high-statistics ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. This thesis presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, details its implementation, and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method using the full NOvA 10-year data set. The results demonstrate that PISCES can successfully fit NOvA data while incorporating the constraints from the ND detectors consistently, using physically motivated systematic uncertainties to account for data/MC discrepancies.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.]↗

Representations of the language recognition problem for a theorem prover

Two representations of the language recognition problem for a theorem prover in first order logic are presented and contrasted. One of the representations is based on the familiar method of generating sentential forms of the language, and the other is based on the Cocke parsing algorithm. An augmented theorem prover is described which permits recognition of recursive languages. The state-transformation method developed by Cordell Green to construct problem solutions in resolution-based systems can be used to obtain the parse tree. In particular, the end-order traversal of the parse tree is derived in one of the representations. An inference system, termed the cycle inference system, is defined which makes it possible for the theorem prover to model the method on which the representation is based. The general applicability of the cycle inference system to state space problems is discussed. Given an unsatisfiable set S, where each clause has at most one positive literal, it is shown that there exists an input proof. The clauses for the two representations satisfy these conditions, as do many state space problems.

Minker, J.↗

Bayesian Model Calibration for Extrapolative Prediction via Gibbs Posteriors

The current standard Bayesian approach to model calibration, which assigns a Gaussian process prior to the discrepancy term, often suffers from issues of unidentifiability and computational complexity and instability. When the goal is to quantify uncertainty in physical parameters for extrapolative prediction, then there is no need to perform inference on the discrepancy term. With this in mind, we introduce Gibbs posteriors as an alternative Bayesian method for model calibration, which updates the prior with a loss function connecting the data to the parameter. The target of inference is the physical parameter value which minimizes the expected loss. We propose to tune the loss scale of the Gibbs posterior to maintain nominal frequentist coverage under assumptions of the form of model discrepancy, and present a bootstrap implementation for approximating coverage rates. Our approach is highly modular, allowing an analyst to easily encode a wide variety of such assumptions. Furthermore, we provide a principled method of combining posteriors calculated from data subsets. We apply our methods to data from an experiment measuring the material properties of tantalum.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗