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NASA NTRS2014

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

surface energy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NESC GN&C TDT Workshop on 2D Image Motion Optical Transfer Functions, Pointing Performance Analysis, and Requirements

What You Will Learn: The focus is on payload imaging performance due to pointing motion. Some historical background on pointing performance analysis is given. The Optical Transfer Function (OTF) and Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) are defined. The imaging performance due to pointing motion is measured by image motion optical transfer functions (IM OTF). IM OTFs are defined for displacement, smear, and jitter motions, which are all rigorously defined. Deterministic and Statistical IM OTFs are briefly derived and graphically illustrated and compared. The IM OTFs are parameterized by pointing error metrics(PEM), which are means and covariances of displacement, smear, and jitter. Emphasis is on procedures and algorithms to evaluate the image motion optical transfer functions and pointing error metrics. Three procedures are covered, which depend on whether the pointing error data is from time-domain simulation, frequency-domain analysis, or stochastic modeling. A method to evaluate the relative contribution of disturbance sources and to identify the most significant contributors is presented. The presentation includes pertinent discussion of flexible structures and control-structure interaction. No single book can adequately cover this subject, so a book is not required for the course. A list of selected articles, reports, documents, and books is provided for reference and further study. Mathis kept to the minimum necessary to convey principles; lengthy derivations are left to the reference material. Graphics are used to illustrate concepts. As with any such learning endeavor, the knowledge gained will be retained and strengthened through actual practice.c©2019–2021 Mark E. Pittelkau— 5

NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI to Predict Glass Compositions Satisfying Property and Cooling Rate Criteria

This project aimed to develop a predictive, artificial intelligence/machine learning-based model to identify glass compositions satisfying specified property requirements. Such a model would provide a systematic approach for narrowing down the nearly infinite range of possible compositions for glasses and minimize unnecessary experimental trial and error. A large empirical data set for training and testing the algorithm was obtained from the SciGlass database. It contains glass compositions and corresponding property data from a wide range of literature sources. However, the currently available form of this data, recently released under an open database license, is not conducive to easy querying and use. The data structure was deciphered and a customized parsing code developed to make this data more usable for the current and future work. Neural network models were developed and trained on viscosity data from the database and demonstrated potential for improving prediction accuracy over a traditional regression model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Coronal mass ejections↗

DOE OSTI2023

Domain-aware Control-oriented Neural Models for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles

Conventional physics-based modeling is a time-consuming bottleneck in control design for complex nonlinear systems like autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). In contrast, purely data-driven models, require a large number of observations and lack operational guarantees for safety-critical systems. Data-driven models leveraging available partially characterized dynamics have potential to provide reliable systems models in a typical data-limited scenario for high value complex systems, thereby avoiding months of expensive expert modeling time. In this work we explore this middle-ground between expert-modeled and pure data-driven modeling. We present control-oriented parametric models with varying levels of domain-awareness that exploit known system structure and prior physics knowledge to create constrained deep neural dynamical system models. We employ universal differential equations to construct data-driven blackbox and graybox representations of the AUV dynamics. In addition, we explore a hybrid formulation that explicitly models the residual error related to imperfect graybox models. We compare the prediction performance of the learned models for different distributions of initial conditions and control inputs to assess their suitability for control.

Shaw Cortez, Wenceslao E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Regional-scale, sector-specific evaluation of global CO2 inversion models using aircraft data from the ACT-America project

We use vertical profiles of airborne measurements of CO2 from frontal cases during the summer 2016 Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-America) campaign to evaluate the skill of a set of ten global CO2 inversion models participating in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory – 2 (OCO-2) Model Intercomparison Project (MIP). Model errors and biases (model minus observation) were categorized by region (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and South), frontal sector (warm or cold), and transport model (predominantly Tracer Model 5 (TM5) and Goddard Earth Observing System – Chemistry (GEOS-Chem)). Overall, the inversions reproduce the general structures of the observed vertical profiles and the enhanced / depleted low-level CO2 in warm / cold sectors, but tend to underestimate the magnitude of the sector difference in each region. In the Midwest and South warm sectors, inversion biases were about 1 ppm above 1500 m AGL, though model spread (quantified by interquartile range) was often even smaller; below 1500 m AGL, model biases were negative and about -2 ppm near the surface. For the Midwest and South cold sectors, models had +2-3 ppm biases below 1500 m AGL, but with comparable model spread. Uniquely, in the Mid-Atlantic there was a consistent difference between TM5 and GEOS-Chem mole fractions for both sectors up to 3000 m AGL (TM5 lower by 2 ppm), on the order of the observation-relative biases. In the MidAtlantic TM5 inversions had negative biases in warm sectors, while GEOS-Chem inversions had positive biases in cold sectors. Possible reasons for the regional variability are discussed.

Gaudet, Brian J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learned features from density of states for accurate adsorption energy prediction

Materials databases generated by high-throughput computational screening, typically using density functional theory (DFT), have become valuable resources for discovering new heterogeneous catalysts, though the computational cost associated with generating them presents a crucial roadblock. Hence there is a significant demand for developing descriptors or features, in lieu of DFT, to accurately predict catalytic properties, such as adsorption energies. Here, we demonstrate an approach to predict energies using a convolutional neural network-based machine learning model to automatically obtain key features from the electronic density of states (DOS). The model, DOSnet, is evaluated for a diverse set of adsorbates and surfaces, yielding a mean absolute error on the order of 0.1 eV. In addition, DOSnet can provide physically meaningful predictions and insights by predicting responses to external perturbations to the electronic structure without additional DFT calculations, paving the way for the accelerated discovery of materials and catalysts by exploration of the electronic space.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatio-temporal Fourier Transformer for Long-term Dynamics Prediction (StFT) v1.0

We propose a novel machine learning model spatio-temporal Fourier transformer (StFT) to emulate long-term dynamics of multi-scale and multi-physics systems. Our method StFT overcomes the limitations of rapid error accumulation, particularly in long-term forecasting of systems characterized by complex and coupled dynamics. StFT achieves outstanding accuracy and computational efficiency by effectively capturing multi-scale interactions, and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the predictions. Our model leverages a structured hierarchy of StFT blocks, and explicitly captures dynamics across both macro- and micro- spatial scales. Evaluations conducted on three benchmark datasets (plasma, fluid, and atmospheric dynamics) demonstrate the advantages of our approach over state-of-the-art ML methods.

Bai, Zhe [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (L↗

NASA NTRS1984

Practical considerations in aeroelastic design

The structural design process for large transport aircraft is described. Critical loads must be determined from a large number of load cases within the flight maneuver envelope. The structural design is also constrained by considerations of producibility, reliability, maintainability, durability, and damage tolerance, as well as impact dynamics and multiple constraints due to flutter and aeroelasticity. Aircraft aeroelastic design considerations in three distinct areas of product development (preliminary design, advanced design, and detailed design) are presented and contrasted. The present state of the art is challenged to solve the practical difficulties associated with design, analysis, and redesign within cost and schedule constraints. The current practice consists of largely independent engineering disciplines operating with unorganized data interfaces. The need is then demonstrated for a well-planned computerized aeroelastic structural design optimization system operating with a common interdisciplinary data base. This system must incorporate automated interfaces between modular programs. In each phase of the design process, a common finite-element model for static and dynamic optimization is required to reduce errors due to modeling discrepancies. As the design proceeds from the simple models in preliminary design to the more complex models in advanced and detailed design, a means of retrieving design data from the previous models must be established.

Rommel, B. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Design of Software for Design of Finite Element for Structural Analysis

The concepts of software engineering which allow a user of the finite element method to describe a model, to collect and to check the model data in a data base as well as to form the matrices required for a finite element calculation are examined. Next the components of the model description are conceived including the mesh tree, the topology, the configuration, the kinematic boundary conditions, the data for each element, and the loads. The possibilities for description and review of the data are considered. The concept of the segments for the modularization of the programs follows the components of the model description. The significance of the mesh tree as a globular guiding structure will be understood in view of the principle of the unity of the model, the mesh tree, and the data base. The user-friendly aspects of the software system will be summarized: the principle of language communication, the data generators, error processing, and data security.

Helfrich, Reinhard↗

NASA NTRS1990

Investigation of automated task learning, decomposition and scheduling

The details and results of research conducted in the application of neural networks to task planning and decomposition are presented. Task planning and decomposition are operations that humans perform in a reasonably efficient manner. Without the use of good heuristics and usually much human interaction, automatic planners and decomposers generally do not perform well due to the intractable nature of the problems under consideration. The human-like performance of neural networks has shown promise for generating acceptable solutions to intractable problems such as planning and decomposition. This was the primary reasoning behind attempting the study. The basis for the work is the use of state machines to model tasks. State machine models provide a useful means for examining the structure of tasks since many formal techniques have been developed for their analysis and synthesis. It is the approach to integrate the strong algebraic foundations of state machines with the heretofore trial-and-error approach to neural network synthesis.

Livingston, David L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Dynamic Analysis and Control of Lightweight Manipulators with Flexible Parallel Link Mechanisms

The objective is the theoretical analysis and the experimental verification of dynamics and control of a two link flexible manipulator with a flexible parallel link mechanism. Nonlinear equations of motion of the lightweight manipulator are derived by the Lagrangian method in symbolic form to better understand the structure of the dynamic model. The resulting equation of motion have a structure which is useful to reduce the number of terms calculated, to check correctness, or to extend the model to higher order. A manipulator with a flexible parallel link mechanism is a constrained dynamic system whose equations are sensitive to numerical integration error. This constrained system is solved using singular value decomposition of the constraint Jacobian matrix. Elastic motion is expressed by the assumed mode method. Mode shape functions of each link are chosen using the load interfaced component mode synthesis. The discrepancies between the analytical model and the experiment are explained using a simplified and a detailed finite element model.

Lee, Jeh Won↗

NASA NTRS2000

Application of Three-Component PIV to a Hovering Rotor Wake

The key to accurate predictions of rotorcraft aerodynamics, acoustics, and dynamics lies in the accurate representation of the rotor wake. The vortical wake computed by rotorcraft CFD analyses typically suffer from numerical dissipation before the first blade passage. With some a priori knowledge of the wake trajectory, grid points can be concentrated along the trajectory to minimize the dissipation. Comprehensive rotorcraft analyses based on lifting-line theory rely on classical vortex models and/or semi-empirical information about the tip vortex structure. Until the location, size, and strength of the trailed tip vortex can be measured over a range of wake ages, the analyses will continue to be adjusted on a trial and error basis in order to correctly predict blade airloads, acoustics, dynamics, and performance. Using the laser light sheet technique, tip vortex location can be acquired in a straightforward manner. Measuring wake velocities and vortex core size, however, has been difficult and tedious using point-measurement techniques such as laser velocimetry. Recently, the Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) technique has proven to be an efficient method for acquiring velocity measurements over relatively large areas and volumes of a rotor wake. The work reported to date, however, has been restricted to 2-component velocity measurements of the rotor wake. Three-component velocity measurements of a hovering rotor wake were acquired at NASA Ames Research Center in May 1999. This experiment represents a major step toward understanding the detailed structure of a rotor wake. This paper will focus primarily on the experimental technique used in acquiring this data. The accuracy and limitations of the current technique will also be discussed. Representative velocity field measurements will be included.

Yamauchi, Gloria K.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Optical Modeling Activities for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Project: Determining Image Motion and Wavefront Error Over an Extended Field of View with a Segmented Optical System - II

This is part two of a series on the optical modeling activities for JWST. Starting with the linear optical model discussed in part one, we develop centroid and wavefront error sensitivities for the special case of a segmented optical system such as JWST, where the primary mirror consists of 18 individual segments. Our approach extends standard sensitivity matrix methods used for systems consisting of monolithic optics, where the image motion is approximated by averaging ray coordinates at the image and residual wavefront error is determined with global tip/tilt removed. We develop an exact formulation using the linear optical model, and extend it to cover multiple field points for performance prediction at each instrument aboard JWST. This optical model is then driven by thermal and dynamic structural perturbations in an integrated modeling environment. Results are presented.

Howard, Joseph M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

The OpenSE Cookbook: A Practical, Recipe Based Collection of Patterns, Procedures, and Best Practices for Executable Systems Engineering for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The OpenSE Cookbook is an open-sourced collection of patterns, procedures, and best practices targeted for systems engineers who seek guidance on applying model-based and executable systems engineering (MBSE) using SysML. Its content has emerged from the system level modeling effort on the European Framework Program 6 (FP6) and the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). The TMT MBSE approach applied the Executable Systems Engineering Method (ESEM) and the open-source Engineering Environment (OpenMBEE) to specify, analyze, and verify requirements of TMT’s Alignment and Phasing System (APS) and the Narrow Field Infrared Adaptive Optics System (NFIRAOS). In these applications, implicit dependencies are made explicit in a formal model through the use of ESEM, OpenMBEE, and SysML modeling constructs. The value proposition for applying this MBSE approach was to establish precise requirements and fine-grained traceability to system designs, and to verify key requirements beginning early in development. The integration of ESEM and the OpenMBEE tooling infrastructure (providing linked-data and web-operability) is a significant added value for the MBSE approach. The APS is responsible for the overall pre-adaptive optics wavefront quality, using starlight to measure wavefront errors and align the TMT optics. In the formally integrated and executable SysML model, simulations are performed to analyze the impact of changed requirements and verify specified constraints for various operational scenarios. The APS team used several modeling patterns to capture information such as the requirements, the operational scenarios, involved subsystems and their interaction points, the estimated or required time durations, and the mass and power consumption. Adaptive optics systems are designed to sense real-time atmospheric turbulence and correct the telescope’s optical beam to remove its effect. The system model for the adaptive optics operational modes was developed to capture sequence behaviors and operational scenarios to run Monte-Carlo simulations for verifying acquisition time, observing efficiency, and operational behavior requirements. The model is particularly useful for investigating the effect of parallelization, identifying interface issues, and re-ordering sequence acquisition tasks. A former version of the Cookbook (which is now updated to MBSE challenges, goals, and lessons learned) included modeling guidelines and conventions for all system aspects, hierarchy levels, and views, which were developed during for the Active Phasing Experiment (APE), an opto-mechatronical system technology demonstrator for the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT). The Cookbook utilizes the above mentioned system models as real-world case-studies to demonstrate and document the applications of the recipes, providing also instructional examples and addressing the available tooling support. The Cookbook is accompanied by a number of SysML models and aodel libraries which facilitate model authoring and maintenance. The Cookbook covers the different aspects of Systems Engineering such as management of Requirements, Design (behavior and structure), Interfaces, Interdisciplinary Integration, Analysis, Trade Studies, and Technical Resources. This paper presents the background, motivation, architecture, and highlights some key content of the Cookbook. For example, interface management, error budget management, requirements verification, Monte Carlo driven analysis, and timing analysis of operational scenarios. The paper discusses how the capabilities of OpenMBEE contributed significantly to the adoption of executable systems engineering.

Brower, Eric↗

DOE OSTI2017

Adaptive time stepping for fluid-structure interaction solvers

In this work, a novel adaptive time stepping scheme for fluid-structure interaction (FSI) problems is proposed that allows for controlling the accuracy of the time-discrete solution. Furthermore, it eases practical computations by providing an efficient and very robust time step size selection. This has proven to be very useful, especially when addressing new physical problems, where no educated guess for an appropriate time step size is available. The fluid and the structure field, but also the fluid-structure interface are taken into account for the purpose of a posteriori error estimation, rendering it easy to implement and only adding negligible additional cost. The adaptive time stepping scheme is incorporated into a monolithic solution framework, but can straightforwardly be applied to partitioned solvers as well. The basic idea can be extended to the coupling of an arbitrary number of physical models. Accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are studied in a variety of numerical examples ranging from academic benchmark tests to complex biomedical applications like the pulsatile blood flow through an abdominal aortic aneurysm. Finally, the demonstrated accuracy of the time-discrete solution in combination with reduced computational cost make this algorithm very appealing in all kinds of FSI applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗