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At least 721 records · Page 40

Recent Climate and Ice-Sheet Changes in West Antarctica Compared with the Past 2,000 Years

Changes in atmospheric circulation over the past five decades have enhanced the wind-driven inflow of warm ocean water onto the Antarctic continental shelf, where it melts ice shelves from below1-3. Atmospheric circulation changes have also caused rapid warming4 over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and contributed to declining sea-ice cover in the adjacent Amundsen-Bellingshausen seas5. It is unknown whether these changes are part of a longer-term trend. Here, we use waterisotope (Delta O-18) data from an array of ice-core records to place recent West Antarctic climate changes in the context of the past two millennia. We find that the δ18O of West Antarctic precipitation has increased significantly in the past 50 years, in parallel with the trend in temperature, and was probably more elevated during the 1990s than at any other time during the past 200 years. However, Delta O-18 anomalies comparable to those of recent decades occur about 1% of the time over the past 2,000 years. General circulation model simulations suggest that recent trends in Delta O-18 and climate in West Antarctica cannot be distinguished from decadal variability that originates in the tropics. We conclude that the uncertain trajectory of tropical climate variability represents a significant source of uncertainty in projections of West Antarctic climate and ice-sheet change.

Ice-sheet↗

Atmospheric Trace Gas (NO2 and Ozone) Dynamics over Coastal Waters near Polluted Urban Regions

At the interface between the land, oceans, and atmosphere, coastal regions are highly dynamic environments, characterized by strong variability in both water and air quality. Variability in atmospheric composition is associated with highly variable anthropogenic emissions, as well as complex meteorological processes that influence the circulation and accumulation of atmospheric pollutants at the land-ocean interface. Assessing the spatial and temporal dynamics of atmospheric pollutants, aerosols, and absorbing trace gases in coastal areas is critical for improving modeling of coastal tropospheric air quality, developing accurate satellite retrievals of coastal ocean color and biological processes, determining impacts of atmospheric pollution on human health, and assessing the ecological implications of atmospheric pollutant deposition for coastal terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.Here, we present new measurements of atmospheric trace gas (NO2, and ozone) dynamics across a range of estuarine and coastal waters near urban regions. Measurements were conducted from research vessels using NASA's shipboard Pandora spectrometers, as part of recent multidisciplinary, multiplatform field campaigns, including the 2016 KORUS OC/AQ field campaign in the Yellow Sea and East Sea/Sea of Japan, the 2017/2018 OLWETS field campaign in the Chesapeake Bay estuary, and the 2018 LISTOS field campaign in the Long Island Sound. Shipboard measurements over these coastal waters were integrated with measurements from a ground-based Pandora network to examine differences in air quality over the land and over the ocean. Measurements were combined with air-parcel back-trajectory simulations to determine the origin of air masses over the coastal ocean. Comparisons with satellite retrievals of atmospheric composition reveal the benefits and limitations of polar-orbit satellite observations in capturing variability in atmospheric pollution gradients over land-water boundaries.

Tzortziou, Maria↗

Evolution of the Martian hydrosphere

The concept of the hydrological cycle is one of the greatest achievements in the understanding of nature. Leonardo da Vinci seems to have held two concurrent views of the cycle: an external process in which evaporation from ponded areas leads to precipitation and runoff from the land; and an internal process in which subsurface pressures from within the Earth force water upward. Endogenetic hypotheses for valley genesis on Mars maintain the necessary prolonged ground water flows by hydrothermal circulation associated with impact cratering or with volcanism. Ocean formation on Mars was episodic, mostly evidenced by the latest episodes. Coincident cataclysmic flood discharges to the northern plains, probably triggered by Tharsis volcanism, would lead to immense consequences. Potential volumes of ponded water are summarized. The outflow channels have a complex history of flooding events over a prolonged period of planetary history. It is hypothesized that episodic outbursts of concurrent discharge was triggered by planetary scale volcanism. The consequences of such episodes are summarized.

Baker, V.↗

Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

Source record↗

Insights into the Processing of Carbon by Early Microbial Ecosystems

Interactions between Earth and the biosphere that were crucial for early biological evolution also influenced substantially the processes that circulate C between its reservoirs in the atmosphere, ocean, crust and mantle. The C-13 C-12 values of crustal carbonates and organics have recorded changes both in biological discrimination and in the relative rates of burial of organics and carbonates. A full interpretation of these patterns needs further isotopic studies of microbial ecosystems and individual anaerobes. Thus we measured carbon isotope discrimination during autotrophic and heterotrophic growth of pure cultures of sulfate-reducing bacteria and archaea (SRB and SRA). Discrimination during CO2 assimilation is significantly larger than during heterotrophic growth on lactate or acetate. SRB grown lithoautotrophically consumed less than 3% of available CO2 and exhibited substantial discrimination, as follows: Desulfobacterium autotrophicum (alpha 1.0100 to 1.0123), Desulfobacter hydrogenophilus (alpha = 0.0138), and Desulfotomuculum acetoxidans (alpha = 1.0310). Mixotrophic growth of Desulfovibrio desulfuricans on acetate and CO2 resulted in biomass with delta C-13 composition intermediate to that of the substrates. We have recently extended these experiments to include the thermophilic SRA Archeoglobus spp. Ecological forces also influence isotopic discrimination. Accordingly, we quantified the flow of C and other constituents in modern marine cyanobacterial mats, whose ancestry extends back billions of years. Such ecosystem processes shaped the biosignatures that entered sediments and atmospheres. At Guerrero Negro, BCS, Mexico, we examined mats dominated by Microcoleus (subtidal) and Lyngbya (intertidal to supratidal) cyanobacteria. During 24 hour cycles, we observed the exchange of O2 and dissolved inorganic C (DIC) between mats and the overlying water. Microcoleus mats assimilated near-equal amounts of DIC during the day as they released at night, but Lyngbya mats typically showed net uptake of DIC over the diel cycle. Patterns of O2 daytime release and nighttime uptake mirrored these DIC trends in both mat types. Nighttime DIC effluxes from Microcoleus mats were equivalent in the presence versus absence of O2, whereas nighttime DIC effluxes from Lyngbya mats dropped markedly in the absence of O2. Thus aerobic diagenesis was more important in Lyngbya mats than in Microcoleus mats, perhaps because trapped O2 bubbles persist only in Lyngbya mats at night and thus sustain populations of aerbes. In both mat types, effluxes of H2, CH4 and short-chain fatty acids were much greater at night in the absence of 02, emphasizing the importance of fermentation. Differences observed between Microcoleus versus Lyngbya mats forecast differences in their microbial populations and in their patterns of gene expression.

DesMarais, D.↗

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Geosat observations of sea level response to barometric pressure forcing

Altimeter and sea level pressure data from the Geosat mission are analyzed for evidence of inverted barometer responses of sea level to atmospheric pressure forcing. Estimates of the inverted barometer coefficient are given for a variety of geographic regions and time scales using various orbit error removal strategies. There is some sensitivity to the orbit error removal method, but the estimated coefficients show a clear latitudinal dependence and are generally between -0.5 cm/mbar and -0.9 cm/mbar. The southern oceans respond slightly more like an inverted barometer than the northern oceans for similar latitudes. The regression exhibits significant geographic variability, particularly near major circulation features and in the northern hemisphere. The results suggest that the inverted barometer approximation is resonable over much of the oceans, but that some sea level variability may be correlated with barometric pressure by means other than the inverted barometer effect.

Hoar, Timothy J.↗

Spin-Down of the North Atlantic Subpolar Circulation

Dramatic changes have occurred in the mid-to-high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean as evidenced by TOPEX/Poseidon observations of sea surface height (SSH) in the subpolar gyre and the Gulf Stream. Analysis of altimeter data shows that subpolar SSH has increased during the 1990s and the geostrophic velocity derived from altimeter data shows a decline in the gyre circulation. Direct current-meter observations in the boundary current of the Labrador Sea support the trend in the 199Os, and, together with hydrographic data show that in the mid-late 1990s the trend extends deep in the water column. We find that buoyancy forcing over the northern North Atlantic has a dynamic effect consistent with the altimeter data and hydrographic observations: a weak thermohaline forcing and the subsequent decay of the domed structure of the subpolar isopycnals would give rise to the observed anticyclonic circulation trend.

Hakkinen, S.↗

Variability in Ozone in the Tropical Tropopause Region from the 1998-2000 SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) Data

The first view of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone variability in the southern hemisphere tropics is provided by a 3-year, 10-site record of ozone soundings from the Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network. Observations covering 1998-2000 were made over Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. Taking the TTL (tropical tropopause layer) as the region between 12 and 17 km, we examine ozone variability in this region on a week-to-week and seasonal basis. The TTL layer is lower in September-October-November than in March-April-May, when ozone is a minimum at most SHADOZ stations. A zonal wave-one pattern is apparent in column-integrated TTL ozone because ozone mixing ratios are greater over the Atlantic and adjacent continents than over the Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean. The wave-one persists all year with varying magnitude and appears to be due to general circulation - with subsidence over the Atlantic and frequent deep convection over the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The variability of deep convection - most prominent at Java, Fiji, Samoa and Natal - is explored in time-vs-altitude ozone curtains. Stratospheric incursions into the troposphere are most prominent in soundings at Irene and Reunion Island.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Process Drivers, Inter-model Spread, and a Path Forward: What Do We Know About Arctic Amplification?

Over the recent decades, rapid changes have been observed in the Arctic resulting from enhanced surface warming in the Arctic relative to the rest of the globe, a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. While surface-based amplification of Arctic warming in response to increased CO2 has been established. The driving mechanisms, relevant processes, and the relative roles of local and remote mechanisms to Arctic Amplification remain unclear. Research over the last decade has made it clear that coupling between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean play a key role in Arctic Amplification. This presentation summarizes recent research on the fundamental role that atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions and energy exchanges play in driving Arctic Amplification, how these interactions manifest as radiative climate feedbacks, and how these processes influence the differences in the projected Arctic climate change across CMIP5 and 6. We hypothesize that models that simulate larger warming do so by generating a larger local atmospheric circulation response that more effectively redistributes energy drawn from the ocean in sea ice retreat regions Arctic-wide and contributing to a larger increase in downwelling long wave radiation. This process is also fundamentally tied to the Arctic lapse rate feedback.

Patrick Charles Taylor↗

Process drivers, inter-model spread, and a path forward: What do we know about Arctic Amplification?

Over the recent decades, rapid changes have been observed in the Arctic resulting from enhanced surface warming in the Arctic relative to the rest of the globe, a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. While surface-based amplification of Arctic warming in response to increased CO2 has been established. The driving mechanisms, relevant processes, and the relative roles of local and remote mechanisms to Arctic Amplification remain unclear. Research over the last decade has made it clear that coupling between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean play a key role in Arctic Amplification. This presentation summarizes recent research on the fundamental role that atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions and energy exchanges play in driving Arctic Amplification, how these interactions manifest as radiative climate feedbacks, and how these processes influence the differences in the projected Arctic climate change across CMIP5 and 6. We hypothesize that models that simulate larger warming do so by generating a larger local atmospheric circulation response that more effectively redistributes energy drawn from the ocean in sea ice retreat regions Arctic-wide and contributing to a larger increase in downwelling long wave radiation. This process is also fundamentally tied to the Arctic lapse rate feedback.

Arctic amplification↗

Process drivers, inter-model spread, and a path forward: What do we know about Arctic Amplification?

Over the recent decades, rapid changes have been observed in the Arctic resulting from enhanced surface warming in the Arctic relative to the rest of the globe, a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. While surface-based amplification of Arctic warming in response to increased CO2 has been established. The driving mechanisms, relevant processes, and the relative roles of local and remote mechanisms to Arctic Amplification remain unclear. Research over the last decade has made it clear that coupling between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean play a key role in Arctic Amplification. This presentation summarizes recent research on the fundamental role that atmosphere-sea ice-ocean interactions and energy exchanges play in driving Arctic Amplification, how these interactions manifest as radiative climate feedbacks, and how these processes influence the differences in the projected Arctic climate change across CMIP5 and 6. We hypothesize that models that simulate larger warming do so by generating a larger local atmospheric circulation response that more effectively redistributes energy drawn from the ocean in sea ice retreat regions Arctic-wide and contributing to a larger increase in downwelling long wave radiation. This process is also fundamentally tied to the Arctic lapse rate feedback.

Patrick C. Taylor↗

Observation of mesoscale ocean features in the northeast Pacific using Geosat radar altimetry data

Mesoscale circulation in the Gulf of Alaska is studied by means of processed Geosat radar altimetry results with comparisons to observations of mesoscale eddies and surface circulation. The first set of Geosat data is treated by sea-surface height (SSH) binning in 1-deg latitude x 2-deg longitude boxes and analyzed by complex empirical orthogonal functions and 2D spectral analysis. The second set is taken from ascending Geosat tracks and analyzed as a time series. The Geosat data are compared to observational data including mesoscale eddies and fluctuations in mean surface circulation as well as sea-surface signals generated by numerical models. The data demonstrate the feasibility of a westward propagation of sea-level anomalies, and the Geosat SSH data are found to agree well with model solutions of seasonal variations in sea level in the northeast Pacific.

Matthews, Paul E.↗

The earth's radiation budget and its relation to atmospheric hydrology. III - Comparison of observations over the oceans with a GCM

The ability of the Colorado State University general circulation model (GCM) to simulate interactions between the hydrological cycle and the radiative processes on earth was examined by comparing various sensitivity relationships established by the model with those observed on earth, and the observed and calculated seasonal cycles of the greenhouse effect and cloud radiative forcing. Results showed that, although the GCM model used was able to simulate well some aspects of the observed sensitivities, there were many serious quantitative differences, including problems in the simulation of the column vapor in the tropics and an excessively strong clear-sky greenhouse effect in the mid-latitudes. These differences led to an underestimation by the model of the sensitivity of the clear-sky greenhouse to changes in sea surface temperature.

Stephens, Graeme L.↗

On the Origin of Monsoon

The notion that the continental-scale land-sea contrast is the main reason that monsoon circulation exists has been a long-held belief. The purpose of this paper is to point out that this notion should be substantially modified. The central idea of this notion states that in summer, radiative heating of the continent, say Asia, gives rise to a continental-scale thermal low and surrounding the thermal low in its southeast direction the low level wind flows in from south-west. This low-level inflow creates a convergence of moisture, which maintains the cumulus convection. And in winter, radiative cooling of continent gives rise to a thermal high and to its southeast the low-level wind is from northeast. The mechanism in this interpretation does undoubtedly exist. However, this mechanism, though believed to be the main driving force of monsoon, has not been tested in numerical experiments. There has been an increasing recognition in the recent years that monsoon is inextricably tied to the heating in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). We propose that the main cause of monsoon is ITCZ's being substantially away from the equator. A brief qualitative explanation of why the ITCZ can be a source of monsoon circulation can be offered based on the circulation field forced by the ITCZ heating. The existence of the ITCZ's does not always have to rely on land-sea contrast on the continental scale. This is hinted in the fact that in February the ITCZ close to Australia (and its associated monsoon circulation) covers a longitudinal range several times as long as that of Australia and thus cannot possibly be caused mainly by the land-sea contrast associated with Australia. Yet, this cannot be used as a proof that the ITCZ in the Asian summer monsoon is not mainly due to land-sea contrast. One of the purposes of this work is to provide a convincing proof. In this work the role of land-sea contrast in the origin of monsoon is examined through numerical simulation with the Goddard general circulation model. The Asian and Australian monsoon circulations are obtained in a four-year integration and then the integration is repeated with Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia replaced by ocean. The sea surface temperature (SST) at each affected grid is specified as the SST at the first grid to the east that is an ocean grid in the first experiment. The latter integration shows that the monsoon circulation pattern over where south Asia and Australia were and the surrounding region has largely remained. The results discount land-sea contrast as the main cause of Asian monsoon. A third experiment is the same as the first except that the topography of Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia is reduced to zero. This experiment reveals that the difference between the first two experiments is due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. August precipitation is shown averaged over the last three years of each of the three experiments. They show that the Asian monsoon rainy region is largely intact in the second experiment and the difference between the second and the third experiment is mainly in the longitudinal location of the maximum precipitation. Additionally, in Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a modifying role. Although land-sea contrast plays only a modifying role in Asian and Australian (and Central American including Mexican) monsoons, it is the main reason that ITCZ (and thus monsoon) exists in Africa and South America. Thus, monsoons can be classified into two groups depending on whether land-sea contrast plays a major role.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Prescribing Stratospheric Chemistry Overestimates Southern Hemisphere Climate Change During Austral Spring in Response to Quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Stratospheric ozone feedback↗