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Predicting resistive wall mode stability in NSTX through balanced random forests and counterfactual explanations
Abstract Recent progress in the disruption event characterization and forecasting framework has shown that machine learning guided by physics theory can be easily implemented as a supporting tool for fast computations of ideal stability properties of spherical tokamak plasmas. In order to extend that idea, a customized random forest (RF) classifier that takes into account imbalances in the training data is hereby employed to predict resistive wall mode (RWM) stability for a set of high beta discharges from the NSTX spherical tokamak. More specifically, with this approach each tree in the forest is trained on samples that are balanced via a user-defined over/under-sampler. The proposed approach outperforms classical cost-sensitive methods for the problem at hand, in particular when used in conjunction with a random under-sampler, while also resulting in a threefold reduction in the training time. In order to further understand the model’s decisions, a diverse set of counterfactual explanations based on determinantal point processes (DPP) is generated and evaluated. Via the use of DPP, the underlying RF model infers that the presence of hypothetical magnetohydrodynamic activity would have prevented the RWM from concurrently going unstable, which is a counterfactual that is indeed expected by prior physics knowledge. Given that this result emerges from the data-driven RF classifier and the use of counterfactuals without hand-crafted embedding of prior physics intuition, it motivates the usage of counterfactuals to simulate real-time control by generating the β N levels that would have kept the RWM stable for a set of unstable discharges.
Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cross-Correlation Redshifts - Methods and Systematics Characterization
We use numerical simulations to characterize the performance of a clustering-based method to calibrate photometric redshift biases. In particular, we cross-correlate the weak lensing (WL) source galaxies from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) sample with redMaGiC galaxies (luminous red galaxies with secure photometric red- shifts) to estimate the redshift distribution of the former sample. The recovered redshift distributions are used to calibrate the photometric redshift bias of standard photo-z methods applied to the same source galaxy sample. We also apply the method to three photo-z codes run in our simulated data: Bayesian Photometric Redshift (BPZ), Directional Neighborhood Fitting (DNF), and Random Forest-based photo-z (RF). We characterize the systematic uncertainties of our calibration procedure, and find that these systematic uncertainties dominate our error budget. The dominant systematics are due to our assumption of unevolving bias and clustering across each redshift bin, and to differences between the shapes of the redshift distributions derived by clustering vs photo-z's. The systematic uncertainty in the mean redshift bias of the source galaxy sample is z ≲ 0.02, though the precise value depends on the redshift bin under consideration. Here, we discuss possible ways to mitigate the impact of our dominant systematics in future analyses.
Phase Imaging: A Compressive Sensing Approach
Since Wolfgang Pauli posed the question in 1933, whether the probability densities |Ψ(r)|² (real-space image) and |Ψ(q)|² (reciprocal space image) uniquely determine the wave function Ψ(r) [1], the so called Pauli Problem sparked numerous methods in all fields of microscopy [2, 3]. Reconstructing the complete wave function Ψ(r) = a(r)e-iφ(r) with the amplitude a(r) and the phase φ(r) from the recorded intensity enables the possibility to directly study the electric and magnetic properties of the sample through the phase. In transmission electron microscopy (TEM), electron holography is by far the most established method for phase reconstruction [4]. Requiring a high stability of the microscope, next to the installation of a biprism in the TEM, holography cannot be applied to any microscope straightforwardly. Recently, a phase retrieval approach was proposed using conventional TEM electron diffractive imaging (EDI). Using the SAD aperture as reciprocal-space constraint, a localized sample structure can be reconstructed from its diffraction pattern and a real-space image using the hybrid input-output algorithm [5]. We present an alternative approach using compressive phase-retrieval [6]. Our approach does not require a real-space image. Instead, random complimentary pairs of checkerboard masks are cut into a 200 nm Pt foil covering a conventional TEM aperture (cf. Figure 1). Used as SAD aperture, subsequently diffraction patterns are recorded from the same sample area. Hereby every mask blocks different parts of gold particles on a carbon support (cf. Figure 2). The compressive sensing problem has the following formulation. First, we note that the complex-valued reciprocal-space wave-function is the Fourier transform of the (also complex-valued) real-space wave-function, Ψ(q) = F[Ψ(r)], and subsequently the diffraction pattern image is given by |Ψ(q)|2 = |F[Ψ(r)]|2. We want to find Ψ(r) given a few differently coded diffraction pattern measurements yn = |F[HnΨ(r)]|2, where the matrices Hn encode the mask structure of the aperture. This is a nonlinear inverse problem, but has been shown to be solvable even in the underdetermined case [6]. Since each diffraction pattern yn contains diffraction information from selected regions of the same sample, the differences in each pattern contain local phase information, which can be combined to form a full estimate of the real-space wave-function[7]. References: [1] W. Pauli in “Die allgemeinen Prinzipien der Wellenmechanik“, ed. H Geiger and W Scheel, (Julius Springer, Berlin). [2] A. Tonomura, Rev. Mod. Phys. 59 (1987), p. 639. [3] J. Miao et al, Nature 400 (1999), p. 342. [4] H. Lichte et al, Annu. Rev. Mater. Res. 37 (2007), p. 539. [5] J. Yamasaki et al, Appl. Phys. Lett. 101 (2012), 234105. [6] P Schniter and S Rangan. Signal Proc., IEEE Trans. on. 64(4), (2015), pp. 1043. [7] Supported by the Chemical Imaging, Signature Discovery, and Analytics in Motion initiatives at PNNL. PNNL is operated by Battelle Memorial Inst. for the US DOE; contract DE-AC05-76RL01830.
Statistical detection of differentially abundant ions in mass spectrometry-based imaging experiments with complex designs
Mass Spectrometry Imaging (MSI) characterizes changes in chemical composition between regions of biological samples such as tissues. This translates into a statistical goal of class comparison, i.e. determining analytes that change in abundance between conditions more systematically than as expected by random variation. To reach accurate and reproducible conclusions, statistical analysis must appropriately reflect the initial research question, the design of the MSI experiment, and all the associated sources of variation. This manuscript highlights the importance of following these general statistical principles. Using the example of two case studies with complex experimental designs, and with dierent strategies of data acquisition, we demonstrate the extent to which choices made at key points of this workflow impact the results, and provide suggestions for appropriate design and analysis of MSI experiments that aim at detecting dierentially abundant analytes.
Auxiliary-Field Quantum Monte Carlo Simulations of Strongly-Correlated Molecules and Solids
We propose a method of implementing projected wave functions for second-quantized auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC) techniques. The method is based on expressing the two-body projector as one-body terms coupled to binary Ising fields. To benchmark the method, we choose to study the two-dimensional (2D) one-band Hubbard model with repulsive interactions using the constrained-path MC (CPMC). The CPMC uses a trial wave function to guide the random walks so that the so-called fermion sign problem can be eliminated. The trial wave function also serves as the importance function in Monte Carlo sampling. As such, the quality of the trial wave function has a direct impact to the efficiency and accuracy of the simulations.
Collision-free poisson motion planning in ultra high-dimensional molecular conformation spaces
The function of protein, RNA, and DNA is modulated by fast, dynamic exchanges between three-dimensional conformations. Conformational sampling of biomolecules with exact and nullspace inverse kinematics, using rotatable bonds as revolute joints and noncovalent interactions as holonomic constraints, can accurately characterize these native ensembles. However, sampling biomolecules remains challenging owing to their ultra-high dimensional configuration spaces, and the requirement to avoid (self-) collisions, which results in low acceptance rates. In this paper, we present two novel mechanisms to overcome these limitations. First, we introduce temporary constraints between near-colliding links. The resulting constraint varieties instantaneously redirect the search for collision-free conformations, and couple motions between distant parts of the linkage. Second, we adapt a randomized Poisson-disk motion planner, which prevents local oversampling and widens the search, to ultra-high dimensions. Tests on several model systems show that the sampling acceptance rate can increase from 16% to 70%, and that the conformational coverage in loop modeling measured as average closeness to existing loop conformations doubled. Finally, correlated protein motions identified with our algorithm agree with those from MD simulations.
Noise reduction in X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy with convolutional neural networks encoder–decoder models
Abstract Like other experimental techniques, X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy is subject to various kinds of noise. Random and correlated fluctuations and heterogeneities can be present in a two-time correlation function and obscure the information about the intrinsic dynamics of a sample. Simultaneously addressing the disparate origins of noise in the experimental data is challenging. We propose a computational approach for improving the signal-to-noise ratio in two-time correlation functions that is based on convolutional neural network encoder–decoder (CNN-ED) models. Such models extract features from an image via convolutional layers, project them to a low dimensional space and then reconstruct a clean image from this reduced representation via transposed convolutional layers. Not only are ED models a general tool for random noise removal, but their application to low signal-to-noise data can enhance the data’s quantitative usage since they are able to learn the functional form of the signal. We demonstrate that the CNN-ED models trained on real-world experimental data help to effectively extract equilibrium dynamics’ parameters from two-time correlation functions, containing statistical noise and dynamic heterogeneities. Strategies for optimizing the models’ performance and their applicability limits are discussed.
Interactions Enhance Ramp Reversal Memory in Locally Phase Separated Materials
The ramp-reversal memory (RRM) effect in metal–insulator transition metal oxides (TMOs), a non-volatile resistance change induced by repeated temperature cycling, has attracted considerable interest in neuromorphic computing and non-volatile memory devices. Our previous defect motion model successfully explained RRM in vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ), capturing observed critical temperature shifts and memory accumulation throughout the sample. However, this approach lacked interactions between metallic and insulating domains. Here, we extend our model by combining a correlated Random Field Ising Model with defect diffusion-segregation, enabling accurate hysteresis modeling while predicting the relationship between RRM and domain interactions. Our simulations demonstrate that the maximum RRM occurs when the turnaround temperature approaches the inflection point. This peak in RRM vs. turnaround temperature is consistent with prior transport measurements, as well as our own optical measurements reported here. Significantly, we find that increasing nearest-neighbor interactions enhances the maximum memory effect, thus providing a clear mechanism for optimizing RRM performance. Since our model employs minimal assumptions, we predict that RRM should be a widespread phenomenon in materials exhibiting patterned phase coexistence of electronic domains. This work not only advances fundamental understanding of memory behavior in TMOs but also establishes a much-needed theoretical framework for optimizing device applications.
A combinatorial droplet microfluidic device integrated with mass spectrometry for enzyme screening
Mass spectrometry (MS) enables detection of different chemical species with a very high specificity; however, it can be limited by its throughput. Integrating MS with microfluidics has a tremendous potential to improve throughput and accelerate biochemical research. In this work, we introduce Drop-NIMS, a combination of a passive droplet loading microfluidic device and a matrix-free MS laser desorption ionization technique called nanostructure-initiator mass spectrometry (NIMS). This platform combines different droplets at random to generate a combinatorial library of enzymatic reactions that are deposited directly on the NIMS surface without requiring additional sample handling. The enzyme reaction products are then detected with MS. Drop-NIMS was used to rapidly screen enzymatic reactions containing low (on the order of nL) volumes of glycoside reactants and glycoside hydrolase enzymes per reaction. MS “barcodes” (small compounds with unique masses) were added to the droplets to identify different combinations of substrates and enzymes created by the device. We assigned xylanase activities to several putative glycoside hydrolases, making them relevant to food and biofuel industrial applications. Overall, Drop-NIMS is simple to fabricate, assemble, and operate and it has potential to be used with many other small molecule metabolites.
The H I content of red geyser galaxies
Red geysers are a specific type of quiescent galaxy, denoted by twin jets emerging from their galactic centres. These bisymmetric jets possibly inject energy and heat into the surrounding material, effectively suppressing star formation by stabilizing cool gas. In order to confirm the presence and evolutionary consequences of these jets, this paper discusses the scaling, stacking, and conversion of 21-cm H I flux data sourced from the H I -MaNGA survey into H I gas-to-stellar mass (G/S) spectra. Our samples were dominated by non-detections, or galaxies with weak H I signals, and consequently by H I upper limits. The stacking technique discussed successfully resolved emission features in both the red geyser G/S spectrum and the control sample G/S spectrum. From these stacked spectra, we find that on average, red geyser galaxies have G/S of 0.086 ± 0.011 (random) + 0.029 (systematic), while non-red geyser galaxies of similar stellar mass have a G/S ratio of 0.039 ± 0.018 (random) + 0.013 (systematic). Therefore, we find no statistically significant evidence that the H I content of red geysers is different from the general quiescent population.
SU-F-P-20: Predicting Waiting Times in Radiation Oncology Using Machine Learning
Purpose: Waiting times remain one of the most vexing patient satisfaction challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick or in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. These waiting periods are often difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided based on personal experience. This level of uncertainty leaves most patients unable to plan their calendar, making the waiting experience uncomfortable, even painful. In the present era of electronic health records (EHRs), waiting times need not be so uncertain. Extensive EHRs provide unprecedented amounts of data that can statistically cluster towards representative values when appropriate patient cohorts are selected. Predictive modelling, such as machine learning, is a powerful approach that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The application of a machine learning algorithm to waiting time data has the potential to produce personalized waiting time predictions such that the uncertainty may be removed from the patient’s waiting experience. Methods: In radiation oncology, patients typically experience several types of waiting (eg waiting at home for treatment planning, waiting in the waiting room for oncologist appointments and daily waiting in the waiting room for radiotherapy treatments). A daily treatment wait time model is discussed in this report. To develop a prediction model using our large dataset (with more than 100k sample points) a variety of machine learning algorithms from the Python package sklearn were tested. Results: We found that the Random Forest Regressor model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times. Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual value minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes. This means that the majority of our estimates are within 6.5 minutes of the actual wait time. Conclusion: The goal of this project was to define an appropriate machine learning algorithm to estimate waiting times based on the collective knowledge and experience learned from previous patients. Our results offer an opportunity to improve the information that is provided to patients and family members regarding the amount of time they can expect to wait for radiotherapy treatment at our centre. AJ acknowledges support by the CREATE Medical Physics Research Training Network grant of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Grant number: 432290) and from the 2014 Q+ Initiative of the McGill University Health Centre.
Earth microbial co-occurrence network reveals interconnection pattern across microbiomes
Microbial interactions shape the structure and function of microbial communities; microbial association networks in specic environments have been widely developed to explore these complex systems, but their wired pattern across microbiomes in various environments at the global scale remains unexplored. Here we have inferred an Earth microbial association network from a communal catalogue with 23,595 samples and 12,646 exact sequence variants from 14 environments in the Earth Microbiome Project dataset. Results: This non-random scale-free Earth microbial association network consisted of 8 taxonomy distinct modules linked with dierent environments, which featured environment specic microbial associations. Dierent topological features of subnetworks inferred from datasets trimmed into uniform size indicate distinct association patterns in the microbiomes of various environments. The proportions of specialist edges, which ranged from 43.0% to 65.7%, highlight that environmental specic microbial associations are essential features of microbiomes in various environments. Based on edge-overlap similarity, the microbiomes of various environments were clustered into two groups, which were mainly bridged by the microbiomes of plant and animal surface. Acidobacteria Gp2 and Nisaea were identied as hubs in most of subnetworks. Negative edges proportions ranged from 1.9% in the soil subnetwork to 48.9% the non-saline surface subnetwork, suggesting various environments experience distinct intensities of competition or niche dierentiation. Conclusion: This investigation provides a new resource for examining Earth microbial association patterns across environments and emphasizes the network perspective for comprehensively understanding unique microbiome features. Keywords: Association pattern; Earth microbiomes; Genelist edges; Network hubs; Negative associations; Specialist edges; Topological properties
Assessment of Potential Ergonomic Injury Risk in the Nuclear Material Processing Glovebox Environment [Capstone Project]
Gloveboxes are isolation barriers that are used within many different industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronic parts fabrication, nuclear, and biological. The research on glovebox ergonomics is currently limited with few ergonomic professionals that focusing exclusively on glovebox working environments. There is existing documentation on occupational injuries, such as musculoskeletal disorders (MSD), sustained as a direct result of working in gloveboxes. The main elements that pose ergonomic risks to glovebox workers are operational repetition, duration, force, vibration, lifting heavy (more than 15lbs with two hands) objects, and awkward postures. This paper examines a small sample of the potential causal or risk factors that lead to the ergonomic injuries. A meta-analysis utilizing a random effect model is used to examine data from several studies which focus on, dexterity and strength changes as result of glove thickness, and robotic assistive technology as a means to improve postural mechanics. With the meta-analysis technique, similar data sets from different research studies can be coalesced into a single weighted, statistically significant result for subsequent consideration. The results from the analysis show that increased glove thickness results in decreased dexterity for operators thus increasing ergonomic risk factors such as task duration. It is also shown that glove thickness decreases grip strength but a similar decrease in pinch strength is not definitively demonstrated. With decreased grip strength, operators will need to exert more force (a known ergonomic risk factor) on processing tools, etc. during operations thus increasing the risk of ergonomic injury. The use of robotic assistive technology as a means to improve operator posture (risk factor) was also examined. Although it may be intuitively assumed that human-robotic collaboration would be beneficial in reducing risk factors, the result from this study’s analysis was not statistically significant. It is inferred that with additional directed research on this topic another study/analysis could be statistically significant demonstrating the benefits of the technology.
100 GeV pgun collisions, Single particles type, PARTICLE GUN generator: pgun_pi04_100gev
Single particle gun for ITK (ATLAS) detector studies: A particle gun with single pions. One pion per event. Production at (x,y,z,t)=(0,0,0,0). Pi+ and Pi- are alternated. Momentum of pions is random in the range 0.4-100 GeV. Uniform distribution in Phi. Uniform distribution in in the range [-4.5, 4.5]. The sample was created by request of H.Gray for ATLAS ITK upgrade studies.
100 GeV pgun collisions, Single particles type, PARTICLE GUN generator: pgun_pi04_100gev_z150r4
Single particle gun for ITK (ATLAS) detector studies: A particle gun with single pions. One pion per event. Production origin is randomly distributed in a cylinder with the radius R=4 mm and -150<Z<150 mm size in Z. Pi+ and Pi- are alternated. Momentum of pions is random in the range 0.4-100 GeV. Uniform distribution in Phi. Uniform distribution in in the range [-4.5, 4.5]. The sample was created by request of H.Gray for ATLAS ITK upgrade studies.
30 GeV pgun collisions, Single particles type, PARTICLE GUN generator: pgun_elec_eta45_30gev
Single particle gun for detector studies: A particle gun with single electrons. One e+/e- per event. 5000 events per file. Production at (x,y,z,t)=(0,0,0,0). e+ and e- are alternated. Momentum is random from 0 to 30 GeV. Uniform distribution in Phi. Uniform distribution in the Eta (pseudorapidity) range [-4.5, 4.5]. This sample was prepared for the EIC detector studies (DIS)
Use of Uncertainty in Modeling DFLAW Treatment at Hanford - 17115
Average or mean is understood by most; standard deviation (SD) is understood by few. Certainty is easy to model; uncertainty is not. The flowsheet simulation, described in this paper, placed uncertainties in the G2 model of the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant's (WTP) Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) process for performance and sensitivity evaluations. G2 is a dynamic material balance model that starts and proceeds with operating logic until all the feed is processed. Dynamic material balance is achieved by tracking the flows, storage, and change of all materials within the plant as time increments. Processing equipment and limitations of the flowsheet are modeled (e.g., equipment types, piping, volumes, flowrates, efficiencies, and physical and chemical environments that impact separations, phase equilibriums, and chemical reactions). Operating logic represents the rules and strategies of a running plant. The G2 model simulated both certainty and uncertainty scenarios for comparison purposes. For the uncertainty scenarios, process decisions were made using presumed values to simulate various operational measurement errors and process variabilities. Presumed means that the known G2 values are adjusted to replicate measurement errors and variabilities. These include: 1) volume measurement, 2) sample analysis, 3) melter decontamination factor (DF), 4) glass former weighing, and 5) glass former composition variations. The errors were randomly generated in accordance with SD values of measurement devices, laboratory methods, and glass former composition ranges. The G2 model runs give insight on the DFLAW process' controllability and the expected range of glass properties. (authors)