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DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of rainfall variability and future change in Brazil across multiple timescales

Abstract Rainfall variability change under global warming is a crucial issue that may have a substantial impact on society and the environment, as it can directly impact biodiversity, agriculture, and water resources. Observed precipitation trends and climate change projections over Brazil indicate that many sectors of society are potentially highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The purpose of this study is to assess model projections of the change in rainfall variability at various temporal scales over sub‐regions of Brazil. For this, daily data from 30 CMIP5 models for historical (1900–2005) and future (2050–2100) experiments under a high‐emission scenario are used. We assess the change in precipitation variability, applying a band‐pass filter to isolate variability on daily, weekly, monthly, intra‐seasonal, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scales. For historical climate, simulated precipitation is evaluated against observations to establish model reliability. The results show that models largely agree on increases in variability on all timescales in all sub‐regions, except on ENSO timescales where models do not agree on the sign of future change. Brazil will experience more rainfall variability in the future that is, drier or more frequent dry periods and wetter wet periods on daily, weekly, monthly, and intra‐seasonal timescales, even in sub‐regions where future changes in mean rainfall are currently uncertain. This may provide useful information for climate change adaptation across, for example, the agriculture and water resource sectors in Brazil.

Alves, Lincoln M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Testing GFM and GFL Inverters Operating With Synchronous Condensers

Inverter-based resources (IBRs) are quickly evolving into a source of reliability services to the electric grid. Penetration levels of variable generation are rapidly increasing, ranging from 60% -70% in some systems. To go further, a fundamental shift is required to address challenges associated with grid stability. Synchronous condensers (SCs) are considered an important complementary technology in such transitions. This paper provides one-of-a-kind insights into real experimental results from operating a real MW-scale system consisting of a 2.2-MVA grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) battery energy storage system, 2.5-MVA SCs, and a 3-MVA load bank operating as a small, islanded grid. Challenges that are expected in larger systems were mimicked in this small but real system to demonstrate seamless transitions from one mode to another as well as stable operation with different combinations of GFM and GFM resources, including a "loss of last synchronous generator" case. The experimental results presented in this paper are a valuable resource to everyone involved in developing and validating models or developing controls of power systems consisting of inverters and synchronous condensers.

grid-following converter↗
DOE OSTI2012

Greater Sage-Grouse Habitat Use and Population Demographics at the Simpson Ridge Wind Resource Area, Carbon County, Wyoming

This study was conducted to obtain baseline data on use of the proposed Simpson Ridge Wind Resource Area (SRWRA) in Carbon County, Wyoming by greater sage-grouse. The first two study years were designed to determine pre-construction seasonally selected habitats and population-level vital rates (productivity and survival). The presence of an existing wind energy facility in the project area, the PacifiCorp Seven Mile Hill (SMH) project, allowed us to obtain some information on initial sage-grouse response to wind turbines the first two years following construction. To our knowledge these are the first quantitative data on sage-grouse response to an existing wind energy development. This report presents results of the first two study years (April 1, 2009 through March 30, 2011). This study was selected for continued funding by the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative Sage-Grouse Collaborative (NWCC-SGC) and has been ongoing since March 30, 2011. Future reports summarizing results of this research will be distributed through the NWCC-SGC. To investigate population trends through time, we determined the distribution and numbers of males using leks throughout the study area, which included a 4-mile radius buffer around the SRWRA. Over the 2-year study, 116 female greater sage-grouse were captured by spotlighting and use of hoop nets on roosts surrounding leks during the breeding period. Radio marked birds were located anywhere from twice a week to once a month, depending on season. All radio-locations were classified to season. We developed predictor variables used to predict success of fitness parameters and relative probability of habitat selection within the SRWRA and SMH study areas. Anthropogenic features included paved highways, overhead transmission lines, wind turbines and turbine access roads. Environmental variables included vegetation and topography features. Home ranges were estimated using a kernel density estimator. We developed resource selection functions (RSF) to estimate probability of selection within the SRWRA and SMH. Fourteen active greater sage-grouse leks were documented during lek surveys Mean lek size decreased from 37 in 2008 to 22 in 2010. Four leks located 0.61, 1.3, 1.4 and 2.5 km from the nearest wind turbine remained active throughout the study, but the total number of males counted on these four leks decreased from 162 the first year prior to construction (2008), to 97 in 2010. Similar lek declines were noted in regional leks not associated with wind energy development throughout Carbon County. We obtained 2,659 sage-grouse locations from radio-equipped females, which were used to map use of each project area by season. The sage-grouse populations within both study areas are relatively non-migratory, as radio-marked sage-grouse used similar areas during all annual life cycles. Potential impacts to sage-grouse from wind energy infrastructure are not well understood. The data rom this study provide insight into the early interactions of wind energy infrastructure and sage-grouse. Nest success and brood-rearing success were not statistically different between areas with and without wind energy development in the short-term. Nest success also was not influenced by anthropogenic features such as turbines in the short-term. Additionally, female survival was similar among both study areas, suggesting wind energy infrastructure was not impacting female survival in the short-term; however, further analysis is needed to identify habitats with different levels of risk to better understand the impact of wind energy development on survival. Nest and brood-rearing habitat selection were not influenced by turbines in the short-term; however, summer habitat selection occurred within habitats closer to wind turbines. Major roads were avoided in both study areas and during most of the seasons. The impact of transmission lines varied among study areas, suggesting other landscape features may be influencing selection. The data provided in this report are preliminary and are not meant to provide a basis for forming any conclusions regarding potential impacts of wind energy development on sage-grouse. Although the data collected during the initial phases of this study indicate that greater sage-grouse may continue to use habitats near wind-energy facilities, research conducted on greater sage-grouse response to oil and gas development has found population declines may not occur until 2-10 years after development. Therefore, long-term data from several geographic areas within the range of the sage-grouse will likely be required to adequately assess impacts of wind-energy development on greater sage-grouse.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Assessment of Spatiotemporal Variability of Evapotranspiration and Its Governing Factors in a Mountainous Watershed

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the water balance, which influences hydrometeorology, water resources, carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, and ecosystem diversity. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of ET at the East River watershed in Colorado and analyze the factors that control these variations. ET was acquired using the community land model (CLM) simulations and was compared with the values estimated using Fu’s equation and a watershed-scale water balance equation. The simulation results showed that 55% of annual precipitation in the East River is lost to ET, in which 75% of the ET comes from the summer months (May to September). We also found that the contribution of transpiration to the total ET was ~50%, which is much larger than that of soil evaporation (32%) and canopy evaporation (18%). Spatial analysis indicated that the ET is greater at elevations of 2950–3200 m and lower along the river valley (<2750 m) and at the high elevations (>3900 m). A correlation analysis of factors affecting ET showed that the land elevation, air temperature, and vegetation are closely correlated and together they govern the ET spatial variability. The results also suggested that ET in areas with more finely textured soil is slightly larger than regions with coarse-texture soil. This study presents a promising approach to the assessment of ET with a high spatiotemporal resolution over watershed scales and investigates factors controlling ET spatiotemporal variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stability and control of power systems with high penetrations of inverter-based resources: An accessible review of current knowledge and open questions

As power system renewable energy penetrations increase, the ways in which key renewable technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) differ from thermal generators become more apparent. Many studies have examined the variability and uncertainty of such generators and described how generation and load can be balanced for a wide variety of annual energy penetrations, at timescales from seconds to years. Another important characteristic of these resources is asynchronicity, the result of using inverters to interface the prime energy source with the power system as opposed to synchronous generators. Unlike synchronous generators, whose frequency of alternating current (AC) injection is physically coupled to the rotation of the machine itself, inverter based asynchronous generators do not share the same physical coupling with the generated frequency. These subtle differences impact the operations of power systems developed around the characteristics of synchronous generators. In this paper we review current knowledge and open research questions concerning the interplay between asynchronous inverter-based resources (IBRs) and cycle- to second-scale power system dynamics, with a focus on how stability and control may be impacted or need to be achieved differently when there are high instantaneous penetrations of IBRs across an interconnection. This work does not seek to provide a comprehensive review of the latest developments, but is instead intended to be accessible to any reader with an engineering background and an interest in power systems and renewable energy. As such, the paper includes basic material on power electronics, control schemes for IBRs, and power system stability; and uses this background material to describe potential impacts of IBRs on power system stability, operational challenges associated with large amounts of distributed IBR generation, and modern power system simulation trends driven by IBR characteristics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Probabilistic Approach to Quantifying the Contribution of Variable Generation and Transmission to System Reliability: Preprint

The increasing electrical load served by variable generation (VG), such as wind and solar energy, in the United States and many other countries has stimulated an interesting line of research to better quantify the capacity value of these resources. Methods applied traditionally to thermal units based on their average outage rates do not apply to VG because of their uncertain and non-dispatchablenature. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation's Integration of Variable Generation Task Force recently released a report that highlighted the need to develop and benchmark underlying loss-of-load expectation and related metrics that reasonably and fairly calculate the contribution to planning reserves, or capacity value, of solar and wind power. As the fraction of generation comingfrom VG becomes more significant, their estimated capacity value will have a larger impact on system planning. In this paper, we provide a method to include VG in traditional probabilistic-based adequacy methods. This method has been implemented in the Renewable Energy Probabilistic Resource Assessment tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Through an example based on the U.S. Western Interconnection, this method is applied to assess the effect that transmission can have on resource adequacy. We also analyze the interactions between available transmission and capacity value for VG.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics of locational uncertainty marginal price for correlated uncertainties of variable renewable generation and demands

With the rapid increase of variable renewable energy sources in power systems, how to manage and price the uncertainty of renewable resources’ power outputs is becoming an urgent issue. Current market designs considering the uncertainties are mainly based on the probabilistic scenario set of demand and renewable energy resources power outputs. This consideration makes market designs vulnerable to three significant challenges when put into practice. First, the accurate probability distribution of renewable generation is hard to obtain in real-time. Second, it is challenging to clear the market timely with many scenarios to guarantee accuracy. Third, generation cost recovery cannot be guaranteed for some scenarios. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a locational uncertainty marginal price model to price the uncertainty explicitly based on a scenario-free stochastic market-clearing model. Instead of using the probabilistic scenario set, the uncertainty of renewable energy sources and loads is modeled with distributionally-robust chance constraints. The correlation of uncertainties can be endogenously modeled in both the market-clearing and the locational uncertainty marginal price formation. Furthermore, this paper proves that generation cost recovery, revenue adequacy, and partial market equilibrium can be achieved using the locational uncertainty marginal price model. Numerical results from both the small and large systems simulations validate that the generation cost recovery is maintained no matter the generation participates in uncertainty mitigation or not. The transmission congestion surplus is also allocated appropriately among loads, renewable energy sources, and financial transmission right owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Framework for optimization of long-term, multi-period investment planning of integrated urban energy systems

In order to achieve stringent greenhouse gas emission reductions, a transition of our entire energy system from fossil to renewable resources needs to be designed. Such an energy transition brings two main challenges: most renewables generate variable electric energy, yet most demand is currently not electric (carrier mismatch) and does not always manifest at the same time as supply (temporal mismatch). Integrating multiple energy infrastructures can address both challenges by using the synergy between different energy carriers; building on existing infrastructure, while allowing a robust and flexible integration of the new. This paper proposes an optimization framework for long-term, multi-period investment planning of urban energy systems in an integrated manner. We formulate it as a mixed-integer linear program, combining a capacitated facility location with a multi-dimensional, capacitated network design problem. It includes generation and network expansion planning as well as interconnections between networks and storage infrastructure for each energy system. It can incorporate pathway effects like techno-economic developments, policy measures, and weather variations. The intended use is to support urban decision makers with long-term investment planning, though it can be tailored to fit other geographical or temporal scales. We demonstrate the model using two cases based on an average city in The Netherlands, which wants to reduce its CO 2 -emissions with 95% by 2050. In the first case, we include explicit carbon-emission constraints to study the effects of the carrier mismatch. In the second case, we implement interannual weather variations to analyze the temporal mismatch. The results give valuable insights into the energy transition design strategy for urban decision makers. They also show the future potential, as well as the computational challenges of the optimization framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Wind Energy Resource Potential for Future Human Missions to Mars

Energy sustainability and redundancy for surface habitats, life support systems and scientific instrumentation represent one of the highest-priority issues for future crewed missions to Mars. However, power sources utilized for the current class of robotic missions to Mars may be potentially dangerous near human surface habitats (for example, nuclear) or lack stability on diurnal or seasonal timescales (for example, solar) that cannot be easily compensated for by power storage. Here, we evaluate the power potential for wind turbines as an alternative energy resource on the Mars surface. Using a state-of-the-art Mars global climate model, we analyse the total planetary Martian wind potential and calculate its spatial and temporal variability. We find that wind speeds at some proposed landing sites are sufficiently fast to provide a stand-alone or complementary energy source to solar or nuclear power. While several regions show promising wind energy resource potential, other regions of scientific interest can be discarded based on the natural solar and wind energy potential alone. We demonstrate that wind energy compensates for diurnal and seasonal reductions in solar power particularly in regions of scientific merit in the midlatitudes and during regional dust storms. Critically, proposed turbines stabilize power production when combined with solar arrays, increasing the percent time that power exceeds estimated mission requirements from ~40% for solar arrays alone to greater than 60-90% across a broad fraction of the Mars surface. We encourage additional study aimed at advancing wind turbine technology to operate efficiently under Mars conditions and to extract more power from Mars winds.

atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2018

Development and evaluation of a variably saturated flow model in the global E3SM Land Model (ELM) version 1.0

Abstract. Improving global-scale model representations of near-surface soil moisture and groundwater hydrology is important for accurately simulating terrestrial processes and predicting climate change effects on water resources. Most existing land surface models, including the default E3SM Land Model (ELMv0), which we modify here, routinely employ different formulations for water transport in the vadose and phreatic zones. Clark et al. (2015) identified a variably saturated Richards equation flow model as an important capability for improving simulation of coupled soil moisture and shallow groundwater dynamics. In this work, we developed the Variably Saturated Flow Model (VSFM) in ELMv1 to unify the treatment of soil hydrologic processes in the unsaturated and saturated zones. VSFM was tested on three benchmark problems and results were evaluated against observations and an existing benchmark model (PFLOTRAN). The ELMv1-VSFM's subsurface drainage parameter, fd, was calibrated to match an observationally constrained and spatially explicit global water table depth (WTD) product. Optimal spatially explicit fd values were obtained for 79 % of global 1.9∘ × 2.5∘ grid cells, while the remaining 21 % of global grid cells had predicted WTD deeper than the observationally constrained estimate. Comparison with predictions using the default fd value demonstrated that calibration significantly improved predictions, primarily by allowing much deeper WTDs. Model evaluation using the International Land Model Benchmarking package (ILAMB) showed that improvements in WTD predictions did not degrade model skill for any other metrics. We evaluated the computational performance of the VSFM model and found that the model is about 30 % more expensive than the default ELMv0 with an optimal processor layout. The modular software design of VSFM not only provides flexibility to configure the model for a range of problem setups but also allows for building the model independently of the ELM code, thus enabling straightforward testing of the model's physics against other models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The value of hydropower flexibility for electricity system decarbonization

Hydropower is an abundant, dispatchable, clean energy resource that will play an important role in supporting the clean energy transition. In particular, dispatchable hydropower can provide the operational flexibility that will be required in future systems with high variable renewable energy penetrations. However, the theoretical operational flexibility of hydropower can be restricted in practice by various non-power constraints. In this paper, we quantify how increasing the operational flexibility of dispatchable hydropower resources with reservoirs impacts least-cost generation portfolios and supports power system decarbonization. Specifically, we conduct a capacity expansion analysis of a two-zone system: a hydro-dominated region and a neighboring region with aggressive decarbonization targets that are represented by the United States Pacific Northwest and California respectively. We then introduce a quantifiable index for characterizing the operational flexibility of reservoir hydropower and assess how changes in this metric impact the system-optimal generation portfolio. We find that increasing hydropower flexibility leads to more investment in wind generation, less investment in natural gas generation, lower system costs, and lower system emissions. We further demonstrate a substitution effect between the grid services provided by flexible hydropower operation, increased transmission capacity on a congested line, and energy storage resources. Finally, we show that increasing the operational flexibility of hydropower increases the effective load carrying capability of both hydropower and wind resources. This research supports a more nuanced understanding of how hydropower can support electricity system decarbonization and may motivate reassessing the cost-benefit tradeoffs of non-power constraints that restrict operational flexibility.

Capacity expansion modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clear Sky Tampa Bay: Project and Toolkit Overview - Resilience-Based Resources for Assessing Solar + Storage on Critical Facilities

The Clear Sky Tampa Bay Team, convened by the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council (TBRPC) and composed of county and city partners, private and public sector stakeholders, solar energy experts, and academic partners, collaboratively developed a set of resources to support the expanded use of solar + storage in the context of community resilience in Florida. Key questions guiding the project included: (1) What types of buildings and systems provide the maximum resilience benefits? (2) Where within our communities should we prioritize future solar + storage analysis or investment to mitigate the impacts of disasters? (3) How might other societal variables be incorporated into a site assessment when considering solar + storage for resilience? (4) Can a standardized process be developed that leverages existing resources to assist local governments with solar + storage for resilience research and decision-making?

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Architectural Approaches for Integrating ADMS and DERMS: Challenges, Comparisons, and Real-World Use Cases

The electrical distribution landscape is rapidly transforming due to the proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar panels, wind turbines, battery storage systems, combined heat and power units, and electric vehicles, introducing variability and uncontrollability that traditional grid operators are ill-equipped to manage. This transformation is further accelerated by advancements in Information and Communication Technology infrastructure that connects control centers with end devices, demanding automation and a deeper understanding of new technologies by utility personnel. Advanced grid control techniques using system-level optimization, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning at the enterprise level and distributed level are evolving to address these issues. There is also an opportunity to utilize the enormous data created by these new DER technologies in the grid. Advanced Distribution Management Systems (ADMS) and Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS) are critical in addressing these challenges by automating grid operations and enhancing reliability. Given the relatively recent development of ADMS and DERMS, and the still relatively low level of ADMS and DERMS deployment in the industry, there is a notable deficiency in the comprehensive understanding of the challenges and benefits associated with these new technologies, especially with their complementary natures and integration architectures. This paper aims to bridge the knowledge gap in ADMS and DERMS integration, presenting three distinct integration architectures currently available, and discussing the challenges and benefits of each architecture to guide utilities, industry professionals, and researchers in optimizing grid management and decision-making processes for a resilient and efficient energy future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beyond Expected Values Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geothermal Deep Direct Use for Turbine Inlet Cooling in East Texas

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory (SMU), Eastman Chemical (Longview, TX), and TAS (Houston, TX) evaluated the feasibility of using geothermal heat to improve the performance of a natural-gas power plant in East Texas. The area of interest is the Eastman Chemical plant in Longview, Texas, which is on the northwestern margin of a geologic region known as the Sabine Uplift. The feasibility study focused on determining the potential for accessing a subsurface hot-water geothermal resource within a 10-km radius of the site to provide thermal energy for absorption chillers. Wells within a 20-km radius are included for broader geological comparison to determine the heat flow, temperature-at-depth, field porosity and permeability. The lithologies of most interest are the Lower Cretaceous Trinity Group and Upper Jurassic Cotton Valley Group. The deeper Cotton Valley formations are hotter (averaging 117 to 130°C), yet permeability and porosity are low. The shallower Trinity Group contains more variability in permeability and porosity and lower temperatures averaging about 98 to 117°C. The shallower formations are considered despite the lower temperature because of increased ability to produce larger volumes of water and extract enough heat before reinjection. The complete SMU analysis is available in the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS). Tapping such deep geothermal sources for direct heating (as opposed to power generation) is known as geothermal deep direct use (DDU). Geothermal DDU has potential across a wide swath of the United States but is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for what are typically small-scale, variable-demand projects. This project examines the feasibility of geothermal energy integration in a natural-gas combined cycle power station in East Texas. The DDU resource is tapped to drive absorption chillers (24/7) for production of chilled water at 5-10°C (41-50°F). This chilled water is stored until needed, which allows for continuous operation with a relatively small-capacity geothermal/absorption chiller system. When conditions are favorable, the chilled water is dispatched to cool the air entering the compressor stage of a gas combustion turbine. This process, known as turbine inlet cooling (TIC), boosts power production during periods of high temperature and high-power demand. Such systems can enhance grid reliability and reduce the cost for peak-demand power. A simulation model of the power plant was developed in IPSEpro software and validated against operational data from the plant. This model allowed the team to estimate the additional power that could be produced by applying TIC under different operating and ambient conditions. Absorption chiller performance was estimated from vendor sources to determine the production rate of chilled water from the geothermal resource. Geothermal drilling and development costs were estimated using NREL's GEOPHIRES 2.0. The expected lower drilling costs in this region led to an estimated cost of geothermal heat of about $4/MMBtu (1.4 cents/kWh t ). The estimated cost for the absorption chillers and TIC hardware were obtained from literature sources and project partners. Hourly data were obtained for weather, natural gas and electricity prices, and plant operating state for 2017, which served as a representative year. NREL estimated the capital cost, operating cost, and additional electricity production and revenue for different combinations of geothermal capacity, chiller capacity, and water storage-tank size. The analysis drove toward smaller geothermal and chiller systems to reduce equipment cost. A relatively low-cost water storage tank accumulated the near-continuous chilled water output for later use when TIC was most valued.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗