Results for “Data fitting” — Page 41

DOE OSTI2014

A Method for the Quantification of Model Form Error Associated with Physical Systems

In the process of model validation, models are often declared valid when the differences between model predictions and experimental data sets are satisfactorily small. However, little consideration is given to the effectiveness of a model using parameters that deviate slightly from those that were fitted to data, such as a higher load level. Furthermore, few means exist to compare and choose between two or more models that reproduce data equally well. These issues can be addressed by analyzing model form error, which is the error associated with the differences between the physical phenomena captured by models and that of the real system. This report presents a new quantitative method for model form error analysis and applies it to data taken from experiments on tape joint bending vibrations. Two models for the tape joint system are compared, and suggestions for future improvements to the method are given. As the available data set is too small to draw any statistical conclusions, the focus of this paper is the development of a methodology that can be applied to general problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Extracting Cu Diffusion Parameters in Polycrystalline CdTe

It is well known that Cu plays an important role in CdTe solar cell performance as a dopant. In this work, a finite-difference method is developed and used to simulate Cu diffusion in CdTe solar cells. In the simulations, which are done on a two-dimensional (2D) domain, the CdTe is assumed to be polycrystal-line, with the individual grains separated by grain boundaries. When used to fit experimental Cu concentration data, bulk and grain boundary diffusion coefficients and activation energies for CdTe can be extracted. In the past, diffusion coefficients have been typically obtained by fitting data to simple functional forms of limited validity. By doing full simulations, the simplifying assumptions used in those analytical models are avoided and diffusion parameters can thus be determined more accurately.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Book of Extended Abstracts IWCE 2014

It is well known that Cu plays an important role in CdTe solar cell performance as a dopant. In this work, a finitedifference method is developed and used to simulate Cu diffusion in CdTe solar cells. In the simulations, which are done on a twodimensional (2D) domain, the CdTe is assumed to be polycrystalline, with the individual grains separated by grain boundaries. When used to fit experimental Cu concentration data, bulk and grain boundary diffusion coefficients and activation energies for CdTe can be extracted. In the past, diffusion coefficients have been typically obtained by fitting data to simple functional forms of limited validity. By doing full simulations, the simplifying assumptions used in those analytical models are avoided and diffusion parameters can thus be determined more accurately.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Modeling Copper Diffusion in Polycrystalline CdTe Solar Cells

It is well known that Cu plays an important role in CdTe solar cell performance as a dopant. In this work, a finite-difference method is developed and used to simulate Cu diffusion in CdTe solar cells. In the simulations, which are done on a two-dimensional (2D) domain, the CdTe is assumed to be polycrystalline, with the individual grains separated by grain boundaries. When used to fit experimental Cu concentration data, bulk and grain boundary diffusion coefficients and activation energies for CdTe can be extracted. In the past, diffusion coefficients have been typically obtained by fitting data to simple functional forms of limited validity. By doing full simulations, the simplifying assumptions used in those analytical models are avoided and diffusion parameters can thus be determined more accurately

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1986

Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) tracking and orbit determination

Analysis results were derived using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System to determine the orbit of TDRS-East. A batch weighted least-squares algorithm is used to fit the Bilateration Ranging Transponder system tracking measurements. Six state parameters (position and velocity components) and the solar radiation pressure coefficient are estimated. The solutions are obtained by fitting the data over 34 hr arcs that overlap by 10 hr. Ephemerides are generated over the 34 hr arcs and then compared over the overlapping regions. The position differences indicate the consistency of the solutions and give a measure of their accuracy. The effect of the modeling of perturbative forces (solar radiation pressure, nonspherical geopotential field) on these results are studied. Error analysis is performed using the ORAN program to estimate the effect of force-model errors and measurement-related errors on the TDRS-East ephemeris.

Teles, J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Heterogeneous multiphase flow properties of volcanic rocks and implications for noble gas transport from underground nuclear explosions

Of interest to the Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment are patterns and timing of explosion-generated noble gases that reach the land surface. The impact of potentially simultaneous flow of water and gas on noble gas transport in heterogeneous fractured rock is a current scientific knowledge gap. This article presents field and laboratory data to constrain and justify a triple continua conceptual model with multimodal multiphase fluid flow constitutive equations that represents host rock matrix, natural fractures, and induced fractures from past underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) at Aqueduct and Pahute Mesas, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA. Capillary pressure from mercury intrusion and direct air–water measurements on volcanic tuff core samples exhibit extreme spatial heterogeneity (i.e., variation over multiple orders of magnitude). Petrographic observations indicate that heterogeneity derives from multimodal pore structures in ash-flow tuff components and post-depositional alteration processes. Comparisons of pre- and post-UNE samples reveal different pore size distributions that are due in part to microfractures. Capillary pressure relationships require a multimodal van Genuchten (VG) constitutive model to best fit the data. Relative permeability estimations based on unimodal VG fits to capillary pressure can be different from those based on bimodal VG fits, implying the choice of unimodal vs. bimodal fits may greatly affect flow and transport predictions of noble gas signatures. The range in measured capillary pressure and predicted relative permeability curves for a given lithology and between lithologies highlights the need for future modeling to consider spatially distributed properties.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2012

Global fits of the cMSSM including the first LHC and XENON100 data

We present updated global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM), including the most recent constraints from the ATLAS and CMS detectors at the LHC, as well as the most recent results of the XENON100 experiment. Our robust analysis takes into account both astrophysical and hadronic uncertainties that enter in the calculation of the rate of WIMP-induced recoils in direct detection experiment. We study the consequences for neutralino Dark Matter, and show that current direct detection data already allow to robustly rule out the so-called Focus Point region, therefore demonstrating the importance of particle astrophysics experiments in constraining extensions of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. We also observe an increased compatibility between results obtained from a Bayesian and a Frequentist statistical perspective. We find that upcoming ton-scale direct detection experiments will probe essentially the entire currently favoured region (at the 99% level), almost independently of the statistical approach used. Prospects for indirect detection of the cMSSM are further reduced.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving resbos for the precision needs of the LHC

The resummation calculation (esos) is a widely used tool for the simulation of single vector boson production at colliders. In this work, we develop a significant improvement over the esos code by increasing the accuracy from NNLL + NLO to N 3 LL + NNLO and release the esos v2.0 code. Furthermore, we propose a new nonperturbative function that includes information about the rapidity of the system (IFY). The IFY functional form was fitted to data from fixed target experiments, the Tevatron, and the LHC. We find that the nonperturbative function has mild rapidity dependence based on the results of the fit. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Gross primary production responses to warming, elevated CO 2 , and irrigation: quantifying the drivers of ecosystem physiology in a semiarid grassland

Determining whether the terrestrial biosphere will be a source or sink of carbon (C) under a future climate of elevated CO2 (eCO2) and warming requires accurate quantification of gross primary production (GPP), the largest flux of C in the global C cycle. We evaluated six years (2007-2012) of flux-derived GPP data from the Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment, situated in a mixed prairie grassland in Wyoming (USA). The GPP data were fitted to a mixed effects model that extended a light response model to include the effects of environmental (soil water content, vegetation greenness, nitrogen) and meteorological data (air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, photosynthetically active radiation) at current and past times. The stimulation of the cumulative six-year GPP by warming (20%, P=0.06) and eCO2 (19%, P=0.14) were primarily driven by enhanced C uptake during spring (96%, P=0.003) and fall (115%, P=0.001), respectively. These enhancements were consistent across each year, suggesting mechanisms for extending the growing season. Vapor pressure deficit from 1-3 days prior was the most significant predictor of temporalvariability in GPP and for explaining treatment differences in GPP, suggesting that atmospheric drought plays an important role for predicting GPP now and under future climate conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Results for Using Uncertainty and Out-of-distribution Detection to Identify Unreliable Predictions.

As machine learning (ML) models are deployed into an ever-diversifying set of application spaces, ranging from self-driving cars to cybersecurity to climate modeling, the need to carefully evaluate model credibility becomes increasingly important. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides important information about the ability of a learned model to make sound predictions, often with respect to individual test cases. However, most UQ methods for ML are themselves data-driven and therefore susceptible to the same knowledge gaps as the models themselves. Specifically, UQ helps to identify points near decision boundaries where the models fit the data poorly, yet predictions can score as certain for points that are under-represented by the training data and thus out-of-distribution (OOD). One method for evaluating the quality of both ML models and their associated uncertainty estimates is out-of-distribution detection (OODD). We combine OODD with UQ to provide insights into the reliability of the individual predictions made by an ML model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1972

The lunar conductivity profile and the nonuniqueness of electromagnetic data inversion.

A review of the theory for the electromagnetic functional used to date to determine the lunar conductivity profile from spectral analyses of lunar magnetometer data. The 'hard' boundary condition used by Sonett et al. (1971) and others appears to be a good approximation for the sunlit lunar hemisphere. The use of the spectral data in conjunction with the functional to find a least squares conductivity profile is examined from the point of view of the nonuniqueness of nonlinear estimation. An unsuccessful search was carried out to find models that were both geophysically reasonable and consistent with the data. It is asserted that the failure to find these models is due to the inadequacy of the functional. Of the models generated, those that best fit the data all have a conductivity peak at a depth of 240 km similar to that of the model discussed by Sonett et al. However, all of these models are quite distinct elsewhere in the profile. It is shown how such models are dependent on both the nature of the functional as well as the initial guess in the least squares procedure. A correlation analysis shows that the only resolvable features from this type of model are a low conductivity crust, a high conductivity peak of limited radial extent, and a low conductivity zone beneath the peak.

Phillips, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Iron line emission from a high temperature plasma in Cas A

The X-ray spectrum of Cassiopeia A was observed for several days by the proportional counter experiment on board OSO-8. The high energy ( 5 keV) data are fit well by a thermal spectrum. A narrow iron line which is predicted by the thermal model is also observed. The low energy (2-5 keV) data show an excess over the high temperature component which is consistent with the presence of an additional low temperature thermal component. Iron abundance in the source relative to normal cosmic abundance is discussed, as in the relation of this observation to shock wave and multi-component thermal models for supernova remnants.

Pravdo, S. H.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Bayesian Revision of Residual Detection Power

This paper addresses some issues with quality assessment and quality assurance in response surface modeling experiments executed in wind tunnels. The role of data volume on quality assurance for response surface models is reviewed. Specific wind tunnel response surface modeling experiments are considered for which apparent discrepancies exist between fit quality expectations based on implemented quality assurance tactics, and the actual fit quality achieved in those experiments. These discrepancies are resolved by using Bayesian inference to account for certain imperfections in the assessment methodology. Estimates of the fraction of out-of-tolerance model predictions based on traditional frequentist methods are revised to account for uncertainty in the residual assessment process. The number of sites in the design space for which residuals are out of tolerance is seen to exceed the number of sites where the model actually fails to fit the data. A method is presented to estimate how much of the design space in inadequately modeled by low-order polynomial approximations to the true but unknown underlying response function.

DeLoach, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2022

Method for determining a histogram of variable sample rate waveforms

A computer-implemented method comprises receiving a plurality of sampled data points, each data point including a y value and a t value; defining a plurality of bins; defining an array of elements; dividing the sampled data points into a plurality of sections; assigning a plurality of polynomial equations, one polynomial equation to each section, each polynomial equation having a waveform that fits the data points of the associated section; determining a plurality of section bin times, one section bin time for each bin in each section, each section bin time determined using the polynomial equation and indicating an amount of time that the waveform has values in the range of one of the bins; and adding the section bin time for each bin in each section to the histogram data in the array element pointed to by the number of the bin.

Tohlen, Michael Aaron↗

DOE OSTI2026

High Pressure X-ray Diffraction and Equation of State of Hydrazine

Synchrotron X-ray diffraction has been used to investigate the structure and equation of state (EOS) of hydrazine (N 2 H 4 ) up to 54.3 GPa at 298 K. The diffraction patterns could be fit to a monoclinic unit-cell structure and put strong constraints on previously reported phase transitions documented by vibrational spectroscopy over this pressure range. Pressure–volume ( P–V ) data were fit using a Vinet EOS, yielding parameters: V 0 = 45.2 Å 3 /molecule (fixed), K 0 = 11.8(7) GPa, and K 0 ′ = 6.5(2). Previously measured high-pressure vibrational frequency shifts were used to estimate the vibrational free energy and model P–V–T isotherms from 0 to 1200 K. The results of the P–V–T isotherms are compared to existing shock Hugoniot data on hydrazine and 298 K isotherms for assemblages of possible decomposition products. This comparison suggests dissociation at high density under shock loading. Good correspondence was found between the static lattice EOS as calculated by the model and the previously reported EOS as calculated by density functional theory. Finally, these results resolve existing uncertainties about the EOS and crystal symmetry of hydrazine at high pressure and provide valuable baseline information on this important energetic material.

diffraction↗

DOE OSTI2014

From kinetic to collective behavior in thermal transport on semiconductors and semiconductor nanostructures

We present a model which deepens into the role that normal scattering has on the thermal conductivity in semiconductor bulk, micro, and nanoscale samples. Thermal conductivity as a function of the temperature undergoes a smooth transition from a kinetic to a collective regime that depends on the importance of normal scattering events. We demonstrate that in this transition, the key point to fit experimental data is changing the way to perform the average on the scattering rates. We apply the model to bulk Si with different isotopic compositions obtaining an accurate fit. Then we calculate the thermal conductivity of Si thin films and nanowires by only introducing the effective size as additional parameter. The model provides a better prediction of the thermal conductivity behavior valid for all temperatures and sizes above 30 nm with a single expression. Avoiding the introduction of confinement or quantum effects, the model permits to establish the limit of classical theories in the study of the thermal conductivity in nanoscopic systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2015

WE-F-304-05: Cranial TCP/NTCP Modeling Insights and Caveats

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) was introduced clinically more than twenty years ago, and many subsequent publications have reported safety and efficacy data. The AAPM Working Group on Biological Effects of Hypofractionated Radiotherapy/SBRT (WGSBRT) extracted published treatment outcomes data from extensive literature searches to summarize and construct tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for six anatomical regions: Cranial, Head and Neck, Thoracic, Abdominal, Pelvic, and Spinal. In this session, we present the WGSBRT’s work for cranial sites, and recurrent head and neck cancer. From literature-based data and associated models, guidelines to aid with safe and effective hypofractionated radiotherapy treatment are being determined. Further, the ability of existing and proposed radiobiological models to fit these data is considered as to the ability to distinguish between the linear-quadratic and alternative radiobiological models such as secondary cell death from vascular damage, immunogenic, or bystander effects. Where appropriate, specific model parameters are estimated. As described in “The lessons of QUANTEC,” (1), lack of adequate reporting standards continues to limit the amount of useful quantitative information that can be extracted from peer-reviewed publications. Recommendations regarding reporting standards are considered, to enable such reviews to achieve more complete characterization of clinical outcomes. 1 Jackson A, Marks LB, Bentzen SM, Eisbruch A, Yorke ED, Ten Haken RK, Constine LS, Deasy JO. The lessons of QUANTEC: recommendations for reporting and gathering data on dose-volume dependencies of treatment outcome. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 2010 Mar 1;76(3 Suppl):S155–60. Learning Objectives: Describe the techniques, types of cancer and dose schedules used in treating recurrent H&N cancers with SBRT List the radiobiological models that compete with the linear-quadratic model in explaining the results of hypofractionated RT Describe the dose/volume metrics that are considered safe in SBRT treatment of tumors near the optic structures. Discuss the efficacy of hypofractionation and dosing schedules used in treating vestibular schwannomas Identify some difficulties in modeling TCP and NTCP for cranial tumors treated with hypofractionation. One moderator, Dr. Grimm, designed and holds intellectual property rights to the DVH Evaluator software tool which is an FDA-cleared product in commercial use, and can analyze some of this data. No others have relevant conflicts of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

WE-F-304-00: Outcomes of Hypofractionated Treatments - Results of the WGSBRT

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) was introduced clinically more than twenty years ago, and many subsequent publications have reported safety and efficacy data. The AAPM Working Group on Biological Effects of Hypofractionated Radiotherapy/SBRT (WGSBRT) extracted published treatment outcomes data from extensive literature searches to summarize and construct tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for six anatomical regions: Cranial, Head and Neck, Thoracic, Abdominal, Pelvic, and Spinal. In this session, we present the WGSBRT’s work for cranial sites, and recurrent head and neck cancer. From literature-based data and associated models, guidelines to aid with safe and effective hypofractionated radiotherapy treatment are being determined. Further, the ability of existing and proposed radiobiological models to fit these data is considered as to the ability to distinguish between the linear-quadratic and alternative radiobiological models such as secondary cell death from vascular damage, immunogenic, or bystander effects. Where appropriate, specific model parameters are estimated. As described in “The lessons of QUANTEC,” (1), lack of adequate reporting standards continues to limit the amount of useful quantitative information that can be extracted from peer-reviewed publications. Recommendations regarding reporting standards are considered, to enable such reviews to achieve more complete characterization of clinical outcomes. 1 Jackson A, Marks LB, Bentzen SM, Eisbruch A, Yorke ED, Ten Haken RK, Constine LS, Deasy JO. The lessons of QUANTEC: recommendations for reporting and gathering data on dose-volume dependencies of treatment outcome. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 2010 Mar 1;76(3 Suppl):S155–60. Learning Objectives: Describe the techniques, types of cancer and dose schedules used in treating recurrent H&N cancers with SBRT List the radiobiological models that compete with the linear-quadratic model in explaining the results of hypofractionated RT Describe the dose/volume metrics that are considered safe in SBRT treatment of tumors near the optic structures. Discuss the efficacy of hypofractionation and dosing schedules used in treating vestibular schwannomas Identify some difficulties in modeling TCP and NTCP for cranial tumors treated with hypofractionation. One moderator, Dr. Grimm, designed and holds intellectual property rights to the DVH Evaluator software tool which is an FDA-cleared product in commercial use, and can analyze some of this data. No others have relevant conflicts of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗