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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

A MODIS Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) as an Estimator of Isoprene Emissions in a Temperate Deciduous Forest

The quantification of isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the ecosystem level with available models and field measurements is not entirely satisfactory. Remote-sensing techniques can extend the spatial and temporal assessment of isoprenoid fluxes. Detecting the exchange of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) using these techniques is, however, a very challenging goal. Recent evidence suggests that a simple remotely sensed index, the photochemical reflectance index (PRI), which is indicative of light-use efficiency, relative pigment levels and excess reducing power, is a good indirect estimator of foliar isoprenoid emissions. We tested the ability of PRI to assess isoprenoid fluxes in a temperate deciduous forest in central USA throughout the entire growing season and under moderate and extreme drought conditions. We then compared PRI time series calculated with MODIS bands to isoprene emissions measured with eddy covariance. MODIS PRI was correlated with isoprene emissions for most of the season, until emissions peaked. MODIS PRI was also able to detect the timing of the annual peak of emissions, even when it was advanced in response to drought conditions. PRI is thus a promising index to estimate isoprene emissions when it is complemented by information on potential emission. It may also be used to further improve models of isoprene emission under drought and other stress conditions. Direct estimation of isoprene emission by PRI is, however, limited, because PRI estimates LUE, and the relationship between LUE and isoprene emissions can be modified by severe stress conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

A geostatistical analysis of small-scale spatial variability in bacterial abundance and community structure in salt marsh creek bank sediments

Small-scale variations in bacterial abundance and community structure were examined in salt marsh sediments from Virginia's eastern shore. Samples were collected at 5 cm intervals (horizontally) along a 50 cm elevation gradient, over a 215 cm horizontal transect. For each sample, bacterial abundance was determined using acridine orange direct counts and community structure was analyzed using randomly amplified polymorphic DNA fingerprinting of whole-community DNA extracts. A geostatistical analysis was used to determine the degree of spatial autocorrelation among the samples, for each variable and each direction (horizontal and vertical). The proportion of variance in bacterial abundance that could be accounted for by the spatial model was quite high (vertical: 60%, horizontal: 73%); significant autocorrelation was found among samples separated by 25 cm in the vertical direction and up to 115 cm horizontally. In contrast, most of the variability in community structure was not accounted for by simply considering the spatial separation of samples (vertical: 11%, horizontal: 22%), and must reflect variability from other parameters (e.g., variation at other spatial scales, experimental error, or environmental heterogeneity). Microbial community patch size based upon overall similarity in community structure varied between 17 cm (vertical) and 35 cm (horizontal). Overall, variability due to horizontal position (distance from the creek bank) was much smaller than that due to vertical position (elevation) for both community properties assayed. This suggests that processes more correlated with elevation (e.g., drainage and redox potential) vary at a smaller scale (therefore producing smaller patch sizes) than processes controlled by distance from the creek bank. c2002 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impact of dilution on microbial community structure and functional potential: comparison of numerical simulations and batch culture experiments

A series of microcosm experiments was performed using serial dilutions of a sewage microbial community to inoculate a set of batch cultures in sterile sewage. After inoculation, the dilution-defined communities were allowed to regrow for several days and a number of community attributes were measured in the regrown assemblages. Based upon a set of numerical simulations, community structure was expected to differ along the dilution gradient; the greatest differences in structure were anticipated between the undiluted-low-dilution communities and the communities regrown from the very dilute (more than 10(-4)) inocula. Furthermore, some differences were expected among the lower-dilution treatments (e.g., between undiluted and 10(-1)) depending upon the evenness of the original community. In general, each of the procedures used to examine the experimental community structures separated the communities into at least two, often three, distinct groups. The groupings were consistent with the simulated dilution of a mixture of organisms with a very uneven distribution. Significant differences in community structure were detected with genetic (amplified fragment length polymorphism and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism), physiological (community level physiological profiling), and culture-based (colony morphology on R2A agar) measurements. Along with differences in community structure, differences in community size (acridine orange direct counting), composition (ratio of sewage medium counts to R2A counts, monitoring of each colony morphology across the treatments), and metabolic redundancy (i.e., generalist versus specialist) were also observed, suggesting that the differences in structure and diversity of communities maintained in the same environment can be manifested as differences in community organization and function.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2022

Impact of Growth Phase, Pigment Adaptation, and Climate Change Conditions on the Cellular Pigment and Carbon Content of Fifty‐One Phytoplankton Isolates

Owing to their importance in aquatic ecosystems, the demand for models that estimate phytoplankton biomass and community composition in the global ocean has increased over the last decade. Moreover, the impacts of climate change, including elevated carbon dioxide (CO2), increased stratification, and warmer sea surface temperatures, will likely shape phytoplankton community composition in the global ocean. Chemotaxonomic methods are useful for modeling phytoplankton community composition from marker pigments normalized to chlorophyll a (Chl a). However, photosynthetic pigments, particularly Chl a, are sensitive to nutrient and light conditions. Cellular carbon is less sensitive, so using carbon biomass instead may provide an alternative approach. To this end, cellular pigment and carbon concentrations were measured in 51 strains of globally relevant, cultured phytoplankton. Pigment-to-Chl a and pigment-to-carbon ratios were computed for each strain. For 25 strains, measurements were taken during two growth phases. While some differences between growth phases were observed, they did not exceed within class differences. Multiple strains of Amphidinium carterae, Ditylum brightwellii and Heterosigma akashiwo were measured to determine whether time in culture influenced pigment and carbon composition. No appreciable trends in cellular pigment or carbon content were observed. Lastly, the potential impact of climate change conditions on the pigment ratios was assessed using a multistressor experiment that included increased mean light, temperature, and elevated pCO2 on three species: Thalassiosira oceanica, Ostreococcus lucimarinus, and Synechococcus. The largest differences were observed in the pigment-to-carbon ratios, while the marker pigments largely covaried with Chl a. The implications of these observations to chemotaxonomic applications are discussed.

Pigments↗
DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass2021: Vera C. Rubin Observatory as a Flagship Dark Matter Experiment

Establishing that Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a flagship dark matter experiment is an essential pathway toward understanding the physical nature of dark matter. In the past two decades, wide-field astronomical surveys and terrestrial laboratories have jointly created a phase transition in the ecosystem of dark matter models and probes. Going forward, any robust understanding of dark matter requires astronomical observations, which still provide the only empirical evidence for dark matter to date. We have a unique opportunity right now to create a dark matter experiment with Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). This experiment will be a coordinated effort to perform dark matter research, and provide a large collaborative team of scientists with the necessary organizational and funding supports. This approach leverages existing investments in Rubin. Studies of dark matter with Rubin LSST will also guide the design of, and confirm the results from, other dark matter experiments. Supporting a collaborative team to carry out a dark matter experiment with Rubin LSST is the key to achieving the dark matter science goals that have already been identified as high priority by the high-energy physics and astronomy communities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA Fluid Lensing & MiDAR - Next-Generation Remote Sensing Technologies for Aquatic Remote Sensing

Piti's Tepungan Bay and Tumon Bay, two of five marine preserves in Guam, have not been mapped to a level of detail sufficient to support proposed management strategies. This project addresses this gap by providing high resolution maps to promote sustainable, responsible use of the area while protecting natural resources. Dr. Chirayath, a research scientist at the NASA Ames Laboratory, developed a theoretical model and algorithm called 'Fluid Lensing'. Fluid lensing removes optical distortions caused by moving water, improving the clarity of the images taken of the corals below the surface. We will also be using MiDAR, a next-generation remote sensing instrument that provides real-time multispectral video using an array of LED emitters coupled with NASA's FluidCam Imaging System, which may assist Guam's coral reef response team in understanding the severity and magnitude of coral bleaching events. This project will produce a 3D orthorectified model of the shallow water coral reef ecosystems in Tumon Bay and Piti marine preserves. These 3D models may be printed, creating a tactile diorama and increasing understanding of coral reefs among various audiences, including key decision makers. More importantly, the final data products can enable accurate and quantitative health assessment capabilities for coral reef ecosystems.

Aquatic↗
DOE OSTI2017

Nutrient Cycle Impacts on Forest Ecosystem Carbon Cycling: Improved Prediction of Climate Feedbacks from Coupled C–Nutrient Dynamics from Ecosystem to Regional Scales

One of the largest sources of uncertainty in the projected global mean temperature response to anthropogenic carbon (C) emissions is the role of the land surface in contributing to or mediating the rise in atmospheric CO2 [IPCC, 2007]. Development of ecosystem processes in global land surface models (LSMs) is far from complete, with major components such as the nitrogen (N) cycle only recently being implemented in some LSMs [Thornton et al., 2007; Sokolov et al., 2008; Xu-Ri and Prentice, 2008; Fisher et al., 2010]. Inclusion of the N cycle can reduce terrestrial C uptake by up to ~50 Pg C·y-1 globally [Figure 1: Fisher et al., 2010]. However, even these early representations of the N cycle in LSMs are missing critical plant–soil interactions that have been shown empirically to exert a major influence over ecosystem C fluxes. Here we propose to use a newly developed plant N model by PI Fisher as a theoretical and analytical framework for integrating novel field-based methods and long-term flux observations to quantify the impacts of belowground processes on fluxes of C, water and energy, from ecosystem to regional scales. Although the model (Fixation & Uptake of Nitrogen: FUN) is one of the more advanced global plant N models available, the model is dependent on theoretical C flux curves optimizing plant C allocation to root exudates, symbiotic bacteria and fungi, and retranslocation enzymes that have not been confirmed or validated with measurements—primarily because the measurement techniques had not been available, until recently. Parallel to the model developments by Fisher et al. were developments in in situ direct measurement techniques by Phillips et al. [2008; 2011], who were able to measure C fluxes from roots to soil. Not only do these techniques have the capacity to confirm and/or modify the modeling components in the Fisher et al. plant N model, but they also provide insight into how belowground C supply from roots couples the C–N cycles at the micro-site and ecosystem scales. Collectively, the integration of measurements and modeling provides empirical grounding for theoretical process behavior. Three critical components will enable us to successfully carry out this research: I) new methodological approaches developed by co-I Phillips for in situ measurement of root exudates, and belowground C fluxes that allow for testing and refinement of FUN [Phillips et al., 2008; Phillips et al., 2011]; II) an innovative research design that involves data integration across an ecological gradient, including a DOE-supported AmeriFlux tower operated by co-I Dragoni, which is essential to determining the ecosystem flux impacts [Dragoni et al., 2011]; and, III) new results from co-I Evans showing unique spectral signatures of trees in association with ectomycorrhizae (ECM) and arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) fungi from Landsat data using spectral mixture analysis (SMA), which is key to scaling up belowground processes to regional scales [Andersson et al., 2009]. Each component provides feedback to and is intimately linked with all other components; no part operates in isolation. Our team and approach combines expertise in modeling, remote sensing, ecosystem ecology, plant physiology, soil biogeochemistry, and micrometeorology to address these inherently interdisciplinary problems and questions. This proposal directly responds to the focused Science Area of the FOA: “The role of belowground processes and mechanisms across scales (e.g., soil carbon transformation, root dynamics, mycorrhizal interactions, and plant mediated (e.g., root exudates) biogeochemical transformations) associated with a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic global vegetation models underestimate net CO 2 flux mean and inter-annual variability in dryland ecosystems

Despite their sparse vegetation, dryland regions exert a huge influence over global biogeochemical cycles because they cover more than 40% of the world surface (Schimel 2010 Science 327 418–9). It is thought that drylands dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and long-term trend in the global carbon (C) cycle (Poulter et al 2014 Nature 509 600–3, Ahlstrom et al 2015 Science 348 895–9, Zhang et al 2018 Glob. Change Biol. 24 3954–68). Projections of the global land C sink therefore rely on accurate representation of dryland C cycle processes; however, the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) used in future projections have rarely been evaluated against dryland C flux data. Here, we carried out an evaluation of 14 DGVMs (TRENDY v7) against net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 dryland flux sites in the southwestern US encompassing a range of ecosystem types (forests, shrub- and grasslands). We find that all the models underestimate both mean annual C uptake/release as well as the magnitude of NEE IAV, suggesting that improvements in representing dryland regions may improve global C cycle projections. Across all models, the sensitivity and timing of ecosystem C uptake to plant available moisture was at fault. Spring biases in gross primary production (GPP) dominate the underestimate of mean annual NEE, whereas models' lack of GPP response to water availability in both spring and summer monsoon are responsible for inability to capture NEE IAV. Errors in GPP moisture sensitivity at high elevation forested sites were more prominent during the spring, while errors at the low elevation shrub and grass-dominated sites were more important during the monsoon. We propose a range of hypotheses for why model GPP does not respond sufficiently to changing water availability that can serve as a guide for future dryland DGVM developments. Our analysis suggests that improvements in modeling C cycle processes across more than a quarter of the Earth's land surface could be achieved by addressing the moisture sensitivity of dryland C uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Northern Hemisphere Growing Season Net Carbon Flux in Climate Models Using Aircraft Observations

Understanding terrestrial ecosystems and their response to anthropogenic climate change requires quantification of land-atmosphere carbon exchange. However, top-down and bottom-up estimates of large-scale land-atmosphere fluxes, including the northern extratropical growing season net flux (GSNF), show significant discrepancies. We developed a data-driven metric for the GSNF using atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration observations collected during the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations and Atmospheric Tomography Mission flight campaigns. This aircraft-derived metric is bias-corrected using three independent atmospheric inversion systems. We estimate the northern extratropical GSNF to be 5.7 ± 0.3 Pg C and use it to evaluate net biosphere productivity from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) models. While the model-to-model spread in the GSNF has decreased in the CMIP6 models relative to that of the CMIP5 models, there is still disagreement on the magnitude and timing of seasonal carbon uptake with most models underestimating the GSNF and overestimating the length of the growing season relative to the observations. We also use an emergent constraint approach to estimate annual northern extratropical gross primary productivity to be 56 ± 17 Pg C, heterotrophic respiration to be 25 ± 13 Pg C, and net primary productivity to be 28 ± 12 Pg C. The flux inferred from these aircraft observations provides an additional constraint on large-scale gross fluxes in prognostic Earth system models that may ultimately improve our ability to accurately predict carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating CO 2 fluxes through integrating spatial and temporal input layers via deep learning algorithms

Background Accurate estimation of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 fluxes (Fc) is essential for understanding carbon cycle processes and assessing ecosystem carbon budgets. However, conventional modeling approaches often emphasize temporal dynamics while overlooking the pronounced spatial heterogeneity within the footprint of eddy covariance (EC) towers, potentially limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability of Fc estimates. To address this challenge, we developed a spatiotemporal model that integrates high-resolution footprint-weighted spatial information with sequential environmental drivers. Results The integrated model combines a deeper graph convolutional network to characterize fine-scale spatial variability within EC footprints and a gated recurrent unit network to capture temporal dependencies in biophysical conditions. Using multi-year flux tower observations, remote sensing vegetation indices and footprint modeling, we evaluate the proposed method across three land cover types. This spatiotemporal model consistently outperforms temporal-only and spatial-only baselines, achieving the highest overall accuracy (R 2 = 0.9569) and the lowest RMSE (1.8128 μmol m −2 s −1 ) and MAE (1.1939 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Performance gains are particularly evident in ecosystems with strong vegetation heterogeneity, where spatial structure substantially modulates Fc variability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of joint modeling spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics for improving Fc estimation and provides a robust method for advancing footprint-based Fc estimates across diverse ecosystems, supporting refined assessments of terrestrial carbon fluxes, and enhancing scientific foundations for carbon studies.

CO2 flux estimate↗
DOE OSTI2026

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2009

Watershed and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Seagrasses in Mobile Bay

There is a continued need to understand how human activities along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are impacting the natural ecosystems. The gulf coast is experiencing rapid population growth and associated land cover/land use change. Mobile Bay, AL is a designated pilot region of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and is the focus area of many current NASA and NOAA studies, for example. This is a critical region, both ecologically and economically to the entire United States because it has the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the continental USA, is a vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreational important fisheries, and houses a working waterfront and port that is expanding. Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed for Mobile Bay to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on the aquatic ecosystem. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use Scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on observed trends. All land use scenarios were developed to a common land classification system developed by merging the 1992 and 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD). The LSPC model output provides changes in flow, temperature, sediments and general water quality for 22 discharge points into the Bay. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout the Bay s aquatic ecosystems. The models were calibrated using in-situ data collected at sampling stations in and around Mobile bay. This phase of the project has focused on sediment modeling because of its significant influence on light attenuation which is a critical factor in the health of submerged aquatic vegetation. The impact of land use change on sediment concentrations was evaluated by analyzing the LSPC and EFDC sediment simulations for the four land use scenarios. Such analysis was also performed for storm and non-storm periods. In- situ data of total suspended sediments (TSS) and light attenuation were used to develop a regression model to estimate light attenuation from TSS. This regression model was used to derive marine light attenuation estimates throughout Mobile bay using the EFDC TSS outputs. The changes in sediment concentrations and associated impact on light attenuation in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on seagreasses and Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) habitat. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of sediments due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Estes, Maurice G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗
DOE OSTI2018

Two key features influencing community assembly processes at regional scale: Initial state and degree of change in environmental conditions

Belowground microbial communities strongly influence ecosystem function such that predicting function may rely on understanding ecological processes that assemble communities. Uncertainty remains, however, in what governs the relative contributions of different ecological processes. To help fill this knowledge gap we test the general hypothesis that both initial state and degree of change in environmental conditions govern the relative contributions of different ecological assembly processes. To do so we leveraged regional-scale nutrient and organic matter addition experiments and used soil organic matter (SOM) as a proxy of integrated soil environmental conditions. Consistent with our hypothesis, we found that both the initial amount of SOM and the degree of change in SOM—in response to nutrient addition—influenced the relative contributions of different ecological assembly processes. These influences were most clearly observed at the regional scale, suggesting potential scale dependence. More specifically, nutrient additions homogenized bacterial community composition due to enhanced influences of homogenizing dispersal when SOM content was initially high. In contrast, nutrient additions led to divergence in community composition due to variable selection when initial SOM was low and/or when SOM increased significantly in response to nutrient additions. Our findings indicate important connections among initial conditions, degree of change in environmental variables, and microbial community assembly processes that may influence ecosystem processes. These conceptual inferences highlight a need to strengthen connections between ecological theory and biogeochemical modeling.

Feng, Youzhi↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

This study helps elucidate NASA’s future options for facilitating government-funded activities in the post–International Space Station (ISS) low-Earth orbit (LEO) ecosystem. NASA is preparing for the retirement of the ISS and transition of LEO activities to one or more Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) by 2030. This transition necessitates new models for connecting NASA and other users of the LEO environment to platforms and opportunities. As the LEO ecosystem evolves through growth of the commercial space industry and NASA’s strategic goal to support the development of a robust LEO economy in which many stakeholders on Earth can participate, so must the way NASA facilitates government activities to ensure citizens realize the highest return on their investment in LEO. Specifically, this study aims to answer the question: What are potential models for an ISS National Lab facilitating government-funded or -subsidized activities on a commercial LEO platform after the transition of the ISS to one or more private platforms?

Erica Rodgers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prior biosphere model impact on global terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated from OCO-2 retrievals

This study assesses the impact of different state of the art global biospheric CO2 flux models, when applied as prior information, on inverse model “top-down” estimates of terrestrial CO2 fluxes obtained when assimilating Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations. This is done with a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using synthetic CO2 column-average dry air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals sampled at the OCO-2 satellite spatiotemporal frequency. The OSSEs utilized a 4-D variational (4D-Var) assimilation system with the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) to estimate CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes using synthetic OCO-2 observations. The impact of biosphere models in inverse model estimates of NEE is quantified by conducting OSSEs using the NASA-CASA, CASA-GFED, SiB-4, and LPJ models as prior estimates and using NEE from the multi-model ensemble mean of the Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project as the “truth”. Results show that the assimilation of simulated XCO2 retrievals at OCO-2 observing modes over land results in posterior NEE estimates which generally reproduce “true” NEE globally and over terrestrial TransCom-3 regions that are well-sampled. However, we find larger spread among posterior NEE estimates, when using different prior NEE fluxes, in regions and seasons that have limited OCO-2 observational coverage and a large range in “bottom-up” NEE fluxes. Seasonally averaged posterior NEE estimates had standard deviations (SD) of ∼10 % to ∼50 % of the multi-model-mean NEE for different TransCom-3 land regions with significant NEE fluxes (regions/seasons with a NEE flux ≥0.5 PgC/yr). On a global average, the seasonally averaged residual impact of the prior model NEE assumption on the posterior NEE spread is ∼10 %–20 % of the posterior NEE mean. Additional OCO-2 OSSE simulations demonstrate that posterior NEE estimates are also sensitive to the assumed prior NEE flux uncertainty statistics, with spread in posterior NEE estimates similar to those when using variable prior model NEE fluxes. In fact, the sensitivity of posterior NEE estimates to prior error statistics was larger than prior flux values in some regions/times in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere where sufficient OCO-2 data were available and large differences between the prior and truth were evident. Overall, even with the availability of spatiotemporally dense OCO-2 data, noticeable residual differences (up to ∼20 %–30 % globally and 50 % regionally) in posterior NEE flux estimates remain that were caused by the choice of prior model flux values and the specification of prior flux uncertainties.

Sajeev Philip↗