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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Stand Age and Climate Change Effects on Carbon Increments and Stock Dynamics

Carbon assimilation and wood production are influenced by environmental conditions and endogenous factors, such as species auto-ecology, age, and hierarchical position within the forest structure. Disentangling the intricate relationships between those factors is more pressing than ever due to climate change’s pressure. We employed the 3D-CMCC-FEM model to simulate undisturbed forests of different ages under four climate change (plus one no climate change) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios from five Earth system models. In this context, carbon stocks and increment were simulated via total carbon woody stocks and mean annual increment, which depends mainly on climate trends. We find greater differences among different age cohorts under the same scenario than among different climate scenarios under the same age class. Increasing temperature and changes in precipitation patterns led to a decline in above-ground biomass in spruce stands, especially in the older age classes. On the contrary, the results show that beech forests will maintain and even increase C-storage rates under most RCP scenarios. Scots pine forests show an intermediate behavior with a stable stock capacity over time and in different scenarios but with decreasing mean volume annual increment. These results confirm current observations worldwide that indicate a stronger climate-related decline in conifers forests than in broadleaves.

Forestry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2016

Long-term observations of cloud condensation nuclei in the Amazon rain forest – Part 1: Aerosol size distribution, hygroscopicity, and new model parametrizations for CCN prediction

Size-resolved long-term measurements of atmospheric aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and hygroscopicity were conducted at the remote Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) in the central Amazon Basin over a 1-year period and full seasonal cycle (March 2014–February 2015). Our measurements provide a climatology of CCN properties characteristic of a remote central Amazonian rain forest site.The CCN measurements were continuously cycled through 10 levels of supersaturation ( S =0.11 to 1.10 %) and span the aerosol particle size range from 20 to 245 nm. The mean critical diameters of CCN activation range from 43 nm at S = 1.10 % to 172 nm at S = 0.11 %. Furthermore, the particle hygroscopicity exhibits a pronounced size dependence with lower values for the Aitken mode ( κ Ait = 0.14 ± 0.03), higher values for the accumulation mode ( κ Acc = 0.22 ± 0.05), and an overall mean value of κ mean = 0.17 ± 0.06, consistent with high fractions of organic aerosol.The hygroscopicity parameter, κ , exhibits remarkably little temporal variability: no pronounced diurnal cycles, only weak seasonal trends, and few short-term variations during long-range transport events. In contrast, the CCN number concentrations exhibit a pronounced seasonal cycle, tracking the pollution-related seasonality in total aerosol concentration. Here, we find that the variability in the CCN concentrations in the central Amazon is mostly driven by aerosol particle number concentration and size distribution, while variations in aerosol hygroscopicity and chemical composition matter only during a few episodes.For modeling purposes, we compare different approaches of predicting CCN number concentration and present a novel parametrization, which allows accurate CCN predictions based on a small set of input data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Sympathetic reaction tests and analyses

The critical separation distances for explosive reactions of a solid rocket propellant were measured. Explosive reactions included low order explosion, low order detonation, and high order detonation. The effects of sample size, shape, damage and temperature on sympathetic reaction were determined experimentally. The sympathetic detonation of small cubes of solid rocket propellant was modelled numerically, using the Eulerian reactive hydrodynamic code 2DE with Forest Fire burn rates. The model was applied to cubes of 2.54 - 7.62 cm (1 - 3 in.), with agreement between calculated and experimental results.

Ricardson, D. E.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluating the effect of alternative carbon allocation schemes in a land surface model (CLM4.5) on carbon fluxes, pools, and turnover in temperate forests

Abstract. How carbon (C) is allocated to different plant tissues (leaves, stem, and roots) determines how long C remains in plant biomass and thus remains a central challenge for understanding the global C cycle. We used a diverse set of observations (AmeriFlux eddy covariance tower observations, biomass estimates from tree-ring data, and leaf area index (LAI) measurements) to compare C fluxes, pools, and LAI data with those predicted by a land surface model (LSM), the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). We ran CLM4.5 for nine temperate (including evergreen and deciduous) forests in North America between 1980 and 2013 using four different C allocation schemes: i. dynamic C allocation scheme (named "D-CLM4.5") with one dynamic allometric parameter, which allocates C to the stem and leaves to vary in time as a function of annual net primary production (NPP); ii. an alternative dynamic C allocation scheme (named "D-Litton"), where, similar to (i), C allocation is a dynamic function of annual NPP, but unlike (i) includes two dynamic allometric parameters involving allocation to leaves, stem, and coarse roots; iii.–iv. a fixed C allocation scheme with two variants, one representative of observations in evergreen (named "F-Evergreen") and the other of observations in deciduous forests (named "F-Deciduous"). D-CLM4.5 generally overestimated gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, and underestimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE). In D-CLM4.5, initial aboveground biomass in 1980 was largely overestimated (between 10 527 and 12 897 g C m −2 ) for deciduous forests, whereas aboveground biomass accumulation through time (between 1980 and 2011) was highly underestimated (between 1222 and 7557 g C m −2 ) for both evergreen and deciduous sites due to a lower stem turnover rate in the sites than the one used in the model. D-CLM4.5 overestimated LAI in both evergreen and deciduous sites because the leaf C–LAI relationship in the model did not match the observed leaf C–LAI relationship at our sites. Although the four C allocation schemes gave similar results for aggregated C fluxes, they translated to important differences in long-term aboveground biomass accumulation and aboveground NPP. For deciduous forests, D-Litton gave more realistic C stem ∕ C leaf ratios and strongly reduced the overestimation of initial aboveground biomass and aboveground NPP for deciduous forests by D-CLM4.5. We identified key structural and parameterization deficits that need refinement to improve the accuracy of LSMs in the near future. These include changing how C is allocated in fixed and dynamic schemes based on data from current forest syntheses and different parameterization of allocation schemes for different forest types. Our results highlight the utility of using measurements of aboveground biomass to evaluate and constrain the C allocation scheme in LSMs, and suggest that stem turnover is overestimated by CLM4.5 for these AmeriFlux sites. Understanding the controls of turnover will be critical to improving long-term C processes in LSMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven framework for predicting machining stability: employing simulated data, operational modal analysis, and enhanced transfer learning

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, presents a significant challenge in machining operations, particularly in high-speed milling, where it can degrade tool life, reduce material removal efficiency, and compromise workpiece quality. Addressing this challenge requires a reliable predictive model that can accommodate the complex dynamics of various machining scenarios. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach to predicting machining stability, leveraging over 140,000 simulated datasets and employing advanced techniques such as operational modal analysis (OMA), enhanced transfer learning (TL), and receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA). By integrating these methodologies, the framework effectively classifies and predicts chatter across diverse operational modes, achieving robust and accurate outcomes. Our model utilizes a Random Forest (RF) classifier trained with the comprehensive dataset, which demonstrates substantial improvements in both predictive accuracy and robustness. Specifically, the RF model achieved an accuracy rate of 85%, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90, and an F1 score of 0.88, underscoring its capability to adapt to varying machining configurations. These results highlight the framework’s potential to enhance operational efficiency and machining quality by providing reliable chatter predictions across a broad range of machining parameters. In conclusion, this research thus offers a significant advancement in predictive maintenance for machining processes, enabling more stable and efficient manufacturing operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Machine Learning Predictions of a Multiresolution Climate Model Ensemble

Statistical models of high-resolution climate models are useful for many purposes, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, but building them can be computationally prohibitive. We generated a unique multiresolution perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. We use a novel application of a machine learning technique known as random forests to train a statistical model on the ensemble to make high-resolution model predictions of two important quantities: global mean top-of-atmosphere energy flux and precipitation. The random forests leverage cheaper low-resolution simulations, greatly reducing the number of high-resolution simulations required to train the statistical model. We demonstrate that high-resolution predictions of these quantities can be obtained by training on an ensemble that includes only a small number of high-resolution simulations. Finally, we also find that global annually averaged precipitation is more sensitive to resolution changes than to any of the model parameters considered.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting the spatial distribution of soil properties with a physically-based distributed hydrological model

Digital soil maps are commonly data-driven as the development of physically-based models for soil mapping is difficult due to the complexity of soils. However, physically-based hydrologic models have been successful in simulating water dynamics. Since water movement is a major driver of pedogenesis, the physical rules that govern water movement might help explain and predict the spatial variation of soil properties. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of a physically-based, distributed hydrologic model to inform the spatial distribution of soil properties. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was utilized to simulate soil moisture content (SM) and water table depth (WTD) in two hillslope catchments under pasture and forest management wherein hydrologic model outputs were then compared with soil properties measured in situ. SM sensors and wells were installed in both catchments to validate simulations of soil water movement via Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E). In-situ observations were made at 87 sites within both catchments to study the connection between simulated water movement (SM and WTD) and observed soil properties, namely the depth and thickness of the argillic (Bt), fragic (Btx), and C horizons, and the depth of redoximorphic features. The simulated time series of SM and WTD were also clustered per season using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), which identified similarity among time series at varying timescales. Model validation suggested that simulations of surficial SM (0–20 cm) were reasonable (E = 0.45), however, simulated subsurface SM (45–60 cm) and WTD were not sufficiently accurate. The thickness of Btx horizons were spatially grouped into different populations by SM clusters from every season except spring. For the other properties, only SM dynamics of specific seasons grouped into significantly different populations, suggesting that the explanatory power of simulated water movement varies seasonally and was greater during winter. Here, we show clusters of simulated SM separated soil properties into statistically different populations, showing that hydrologic models could inform areas that followed different water dynamics related to pedogenic trajectories and related biogeochemical processes not necessarily simulated by the model. As such, physically-based modeling of water dynamics can, therefore, inform and advance digital soil mapping by linking water movement patterns stemming from hydrologic model outputs to spatial patterns of soil properties and pedogenesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Models for Wall Temperature Predictions in Post-Critical Heat Flux Flow Regimes at Subcooled and Low-Quality Conditions

Accurately predicting post-critical heat flux (CHF) heat transfer is an important but challenging task in water-cooled reactor design and safety analysis. Although numerous heat transfer correlations have been developed to predict post-CHF heat transfer, these correlations are only applicable to relatively narrow ranges of flow conditions due to the complex physical nature of the post-CHF heat transfer regimes. In this paper, a large quantity of experimental data is collected and summarized from the literature for steady-state subcooled and low-quality film boiling regimes with water as the working fluid in vertical tubular test sections. In addition, a low-quality water film boiling (LWFB) database is consolidated with a total of 22,813 experimental data points, which cover a wide flow range of the system pressure from 0.1 to 9.0 MPa, mass flux from 25 to 2750 kg/m 2 s, and inlet subcooling from 1 to 70 °C. Two machine learning (ML) models, based on random forest (RF) and gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT), are trained and validated to predict wall temperatures in post-CHF flow regimes. The trained ML models demonstrate significantly improved accuracies compared to conventional empirical correlations. To further evaluate the performance of these two ML models from a statistical perspective, three criteria are investigated and three metrics are calculated to quantitatively assess the accuracy of these two ML models. For the full LWFB database, the root-mean-square errors between the measured and predicted wall temperatures by the GBDT and RF models are 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively, confirming the accuracy of the two ML models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tradeoffs and Synergies in Tropical Forest Root Traits and Dynamics for Nutrient and Water Acquisition: Field and Modeling Advances

Vegetation processes are fundamentally limited by nutrient and water availability, the uptake of which is mediated by plant roots in terrestrial ecosystems. While tropical forests play a central role in global water, carbon, and nutrient cycling, we know very little about tradeoffs and synergies in root traits that respond to resource scarcity. Tropical trees face a unique set of resource limitations, with rock-derived nutrients and moisture seasonality governing many ecosystem functions, and nutrient versus water availability often separated spatially and temporally. Root traits that characterize biomass, depth distributions, production and phenology, morphology, physiology, chemistry, and symbiotic relationships can be predictive of plants’ capacities to access and acquire nutrients and water, with links to aboveground processes like transpiration, wood productivity, and leaf phenology. In this review, we identify an emerging trend in the literature that tropical fine root biomass and production in surface soils are greatest in infertile or sufficiently moist soils. We also identify interesting paradoxes in tropical forest root responses to changing resources that merit further exploration. For example, specific root length, which typically increases under resource scarcity to expand the volume of soil explored, instead can increase with greater base cation availability, both across natural tropical forest gradients and in fertilization experiments. Also, nutrient additions, rather than reducing mycorrhizal colonization of fine roots as might be expected, increased colonization rates under scenarios of water scarcity in some forests. Efforts to include fine root traits and functions in vegetation models have grown more sophisticated over time, yet there is a disconnect between the emphasis in models characterizing nutrient and water uptake rates and carbon costs versus the emphasis in field experiments on measuring root biomass, production, and morphology in response to changes in resource availability. Closer integration of field and modeling efforts could connect mechanistic investigation of fine-root dynamics to ecosystem-scale understanding of nutrient and water cycling, allowing us to better predict tropical forest-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Relating seasonal patterns of the AVHRR vegetation index to simulated photosynthesis and transpiration of forests in different climates

Weekly AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values for 1983-1984 for seven sites of diverse climate in North America were correlated with results of an ecosystem simulation model of a hypothetical forest stand for the corresponding period at each site. The tendency of raw NDVI data to overpredict photosynthesis and transpiration on water limited sites was shown to be partially corrected by using an aridity index of annual radiation/annual precipitation. The results suggest that estimates of vegetation productivity using the global vegetation index are only accurate as annual integrations, unless unsubsampled local area coverage NDVI data can be tested against forest photosynthesis, transpiration and aboveground net primary production data measured at shorter time intervals.

Running, Steven W.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Role of Troposphere-Convection-Land Coupling in the Southwestern Amazon Precipitation Bias of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)

The Amazon forest plays an important role in the tropical circulation and global water and biogeochemical cycles. However, the common Amazon precipitation biases in global climate models undermine our ability to understand future changes in the Amazon and their global consequences. The Community Earth System Model exhibits a persistent wet season dry bias over the southwestern Amazon. The bias is also characterized by inaccurate diurnal timing and intensity of rainfall events. Analysis of a diverse set of simulations suggests that the bias originates from local processes. A known land model bias in the partitioning of surface energy fluxes is found not to contribute significantly to the rainfall bias. Key model processes are identified to be the low-level divergent circulation controlling horizontal moisture flow and the sensitivity of the modeled deep convection to the lower tropospheric moisture. The lower tropospheric moisture divergence dictates the spatiotemporal distributions of convective precipitation through parameterized entrainment mixing, which generally improves the rainfall diurnal cycle. However, it also limits convective precipitation over the areas with frequent and large-scale divergence in the lower troposphere. The southwestern Amazon is such an area, particularly in the late afternoon, although uncertainty exists in the low-level flow in the simulation and reanalyses. One way to sustain rainfall in the presence of low-level divergence is a convective trigger based on both the moisture and temperature changes by large-scale processes, which is shown to help in reducing the dry bias.

Sakaguchi, Koichi↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning-based prediction of enzyme substrate scope: Application to bacterial nitrilases

Predicting the range of substrates accepted by an enzyme from its amino acid sequence is challenging. Although sequenc- and structure-based annotation approaches are often accurate for predicting broad categories of substrate specificity, they generally cannot predict which specific molecules will be accepted as substrates for a given enzyme, particularly within a class of closely related molecules. Combining targeted experimental activity data with structural modeling, ligand docking, and physicochemical properties of proteins and ligands with various machine learning models provides complementary information that can lead to accurate predictions of substrate scope for related enzymes. Here we describe such an approach that can predict the substrate scope of bacterial nitrilases, which catalyze the hydrolysis of nitrile compounds to the corresponding carboxylic acids and ammonia. Each of the four machine learning models (logistic regression, random forest, gradient-boosted decision trees, and support vector machines) performed similarly (average ROC = 0.9, average accuracy = ~82%) for predicting substrate scope for this dataset, although random forest offers some advantages. Finally, this approach is intended to be highly modular with respect to physicochemical property calculations and software used for structural modeling and docking.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Modeling the Ecosystem Services Provided by Trees in Urban Ecosystems: Using Biome-BGC to Improve i-Tree Eco

As the world becomes increasingly urban, the need to quantify the effect of trees in urban environments on energy usage, air pollution, local climate and nutrient run-off has increased. By identifying, quantifying and valuing the ecological activity that provides services in urban areas, stronger policies and improved quality of life for urban residents can be obtained. Here we focus on two radically different models that can be used to characterize urban forests. The i-Tree Eco model (formerly UFORE model) quantifies ecosystem services (e.g., air pollution removal, carbon storage) and values derived from urban trees based on field measurements of trees and local ancillary data sets. Biome-BGC (Biome BioGeoChemistry) is used to simulate the fluxes and storage of carbon, water, and nitrogen in natural environments. This paper compares i-Tree Eco's methods to those of Biome-BGC, which estimates the fluxes and storage of energy, carbon, water and nitrogen for vegetation and soil components of the ecosystem. We describe the two models and their differences in the way they calculate similar properties, with a focus on carbon and nitrogen. Finally, we discuss the implications of further integration of these two communities for land managers such as those in Maryland.

Brown, Molly E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Responses of Boreal Forest Ecosystems and Permafrost to Climate Change and Disturbances: A Modeling Perspective

The north circumpolar region contains a large amount of carbon. This carbon storage is vulnerable due to permafrost degradation and wildfire disturbances under ongoing and projected climate change. Climate warming and wildfires change soil organic horizons gradually or abruptly, and modify permafrost thermal-hydrology and biogeochemistry, ecosystem structures, functions, and capability of sequestrating rising atmospheric CO2. Land models do not fully take accounts of these interactions and its complexity in the high latitude. This chapter describes a terrestrial ecosystem model with dynamic organic soil module (DOS-TEM) and its unique freezing-thawing algorithm, and presents key results of its applications mainly in boreal forests of Alaska. The DOS-TEM explicitly considers interactions of soil thermal and hydrological processes, permafrost degradation and the direct and indirect effects of wildfire disturbances, in addition to soil–plant C and N cycles. We first introduce four modules of DOS-TEM, focusing on its disturbance module and coupling with a dynamic organic soil module. Then we describe and validate DOS-TEM’s freezing-thawing algorithm and development based on two-directional Stefan algorithm (TDSA). Finally, we apply the DOS-TEM at site and region scales, with a focus on model ability to dynamically simulate soil organic thickness under warming and wildfires, and consequent impacts on permafrost in the Yukon River Basin. We conclude that land surface model development is urgently needed to include other critical landscape processes, such as thermalkarst and other disturbances, to synchronize thermal-hydrological-biogeochemical processes, and to incorporate an advanced understanding of biospheric feedbacks to atmosphere and ecosystems. Such a complexity of modeling scope is plausible with advancement of high performance computing.

Yi, Shuhua↗
DOE OSTI2014

Uncertainties of isoprene emissions in the MEGAN model estimated for a coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest in Southern China

Using local observed emission factor, meteorological data, vegetation 5 information and dynamic MODIS LAI, MEGANv2.1 was constrained to predict the isoprene emission from Dinghushan forest in the Pearl River Delta region during a field campaign in November 2008, and the uncertainties in isoprene emission estimates were quantified by the Monte Carlo approach. The results indicate that MEGAN can predict the isoprene emission reasonably during the campaign, and the mean value of isoprene emission is 2.35 mg m-2 h-1 in daytime. There are high uncertainties associated with the MEGAN inputs and calculated parameters, and the relative error can be as high as -89 to 111% for a 95% confidence interval. The emission factor of broadleaf trees and the activity factor accounting for light and temperature dependence are the most important contributors to the uncertainties in isoprene emission estimated for the Dinghushan forest during the campaign. The results also emphasize the importance of accurate observed PAR and temperature to reduce the uncertainties in isoprene emission estimated by model, because the MEGAN model activity factor accounting for light and temperature dependence is highly sensitive to PAR and temperature.

Situ, S.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Observed and modeled ecosystem isoprene fluxes from an oak-dominated temperate forest and the influence of drought stress

Ecosystem fluxes of isoprene emission were measured during the majority of the 2011 growing season at the University of Missouri's Baskett Wildlife Research and Education Area in centralMissouri, USA (38.7° N, 92.2° W). This broadleaf deciduous forest is typical of forests common in theOzarks region of the central United States. The goal of the isoprene flux measurements was to test ourunderstanding of the controls on isoprene emission from the hourly to the seasonal timescale using a state-of-the-art emission model, MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature). Isoprene emission rates were very high from the forest with a maximum of 50.9 mg m-2 hr-1 (208 nmol m-2 s-1), which to our knowledge exceeds all other reports of canopy-scale isoprene emission. The fluxes showed a clear dependence on the previous temperature and light regimes which was successfully captured by the existing algorithms in MEGAN. During a period of drought, MEGAN was unable to reproduce the time-dependent response of isoprene emission to water stress. Overall, the performance of MEGAN was robust and could explain 87% of the observed variance in the measured fluxes, but the response of isoprene emission to drought stress is a major source of uncertainty.

Potosnak, M.↗