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DOE OSTI2022

Coffee supply chain planning under climate change

The growing demand but uncertain supply makes the sustainability of the coffee industry a shared concern for all participants along the coffee supply chain. This study proposed a decision-making model that comprises the cultivation management, including shade management and annual agriculture management, and the supply chain logistics. A two-stage stochastic program is presented and used within a rolling horizon scheme that periodically updates input data information to deal with uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios. The program minimizes the total expected cost of the entire supply chain of arabica coffee. The study applied the model to the real case study of arabica coffee bean supply to the U.S. market, trying to answer whether arabica coffee supply can meet the U.S. demand from 2022 to 2050 and how to best mitigate any shortage through corporate-farmer partnerships. The results show that the coffee supply will have a 3% shortage in the future; medium-level shade management and more irrigation and fertilization are possible mitigation strategies. These results demonstrate the need for all participants to adopt suitable technologies for the sustainability of global coffee supply chains together.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

On the synchrotron emission in kinetic simulations of runaway electrons in magnetic confinement fusion plasmas

Developing avoidance or mitigation strategies of runaway electrons (REs) in magnetic confinement fusion (MCF) plasmas is of crucial importance for the safe operation of ITER. In order to develop these strategies, an accurate diagnostic capability that allows good estimates of the RE distribution function in these plasmas is needed. Synchrotron radiation (SR) of RE in MCF, besides of being one of the main damping mechanisms for RE in the high energy relativistic regime, is routinely used in current MCF experiments to infer the parameters of RE energy and pitch angle distribution functions. In the present paper we address the long standing question about what are the relationships between different REs distribution functions and their corresponding synchrotron emission simultaneously including: full-orbit effects, information of the spectral and angular distribution of SR of each electron, and basic geometric optics of a camera. We study the spatial distribution of the SR on the poloidal plane, and the statistical properties of the expected value of the synchrotron spectra of REs. Here we observe a strong dependence of the synchrotron emission measured by the camera on the pitch angle distribution of runaways, namely we find that crescent shapes of the spatial distribution of the SR as measured by the camera relate to RE distributions with small pitch angles, while ellipse shapes relate to distributions of runaways with larger the pitch angles. A weak dependence of the synchrotron emission measured by the camera with the RE energy, value of the q-profile at the edge, and the chosen range of wavelengths is observed. Furthermore, we find that oversimplifying the angular dependence of the SR changes the shape of the synchrotron spectra, and overestimates its amplitude by approximately 20 times for avalanching runaways and by approximately 60 times for mono-energetic distributions of runaways.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Self-consistent simulation of resistive kink instabilities with runaway electrons

A new fluid model for runaway electron simulation based on fluid description is introduced and implemented in the magnetohydrodynamics code M3D-C1, which includes self-consistent interactions between plasma and runaway electrons. The model utilizes the method of characteristics to solve the continuity equation for the runaway electron density with large convection speed, and uses a modified Boris algorithm for pseudo particle pushing. The model was employed to simulate magnetohydrodynamics instabilities happening in a runaway electron final loss event in the DIII-D tokamak. Nonlinear simulation reveals that a large fraction of runaway electrons get lost to the wall when kink instabilities are excited and form stochastic field lines in the outer region of the plasma. Plasma current converts from runaway electron current to Ohmic current, and get pinched at the magnetic axis. Here, given the good agreement with experiment, the simulation model provides a reliable tool to study macroscopic plasma instabilities in existence of runaway electron current, and can be used to support future studies of runaway electron mitigation strategies in ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Erosion of high-Z refractory coatings for helicon plasma source window

Proto-MPEX (Materials Plasma Exposure eXperiment), a linear plasma device (LPD), using a high power radio frequency (RF) (⩾100 kW, 13.56 MHz) helicon plasma source, has suffered RF sheath-induced window erosion. The sputtered impurities from the window surface transport toward the downstream target affecting plasma-material interaction studies. The rectified sheath voltage formed was high enough to cause window erosion by light ions due to its low-Z components (e.g. Si 3 N 4 and AlN). Hence, we are proposing impurity mitigation strategies, which involve the application of a Faraday screen to lower the rectified sheath voltage and the application of high-Z refractory coatings on the existing window plasma-facing surface. In this work, we report the erosion of two different coatings, i.e., tantalum oxide (Ta 2 O 5 ) and hafnium oxide (HfO 2 ) on a silicon nitride (Si 3 N 4 ) window material under conditions of low-energy deuterium (D) ion impact, well below the Ta 2 O 5 sputtering energy threshold (i.e. 250 eV). The test samples were RF-biased and exposed to a high D-ion fluence (∼10 26 m −2 ) in Plasma Interaction with Surface Component Experimental Station (PISCES-A) LPD. The experimentally measured sputtering yields of the high-Z refractory coatings below the sputtering energy threshold of Ta 2 O 5 indicate an increased erosion due to the plasma impurities, especially due to oxygen. Improving the vacuum level could reduce the oxygen impurities and increase the lifespan of the coated helicon window for plasma operation. Post-surface analysis indicates no preferential erosion of oxygen or enrichment of the high-Z surface component. This is likely due to an effective energy transfer from the impurity ion for sputtering of the high-Z component in the coating. With the reduced rectified sheath voltage at the window surface and improved vacuum conditions, the proposed high-Z refractory coatings offer a promising solution for reducing window erosion in future MPEX plasma operations at ORNL.

RF bias↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling neutrino-induced scale-dependent galaxy clustering for photometric galaxy surveys

Abstract The increasing statistical precision of photometric redshift surveys requires improved accuracy of theoretical predictions for large-scale structure observables to obtain unbiased cosmological constraints. In ΛCDM cosmologies, massive neutrinos stream freely at small cosmological scales, suppressing the small-scale power spectrum. In massive neutrino cosmologies, galaxy bias modeling needs to accurately relate the scale-dependent growth of the underlying matter field to observed galaxy clustering statistics. In this work, we implement a computationally efficient approximation of the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias (NISDB). Through simulated likelihood analyses of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DESY3) and Legacy Survey of Space and Time Year 1 (LSSTY1) synthetic data that contain an appreciable NISDB, we examine the impact of linear galaxy bias and neutrino mass modeling choices on cosmological parameter inference. We find model misspecification of the NISDB approximation and neutrino mass models to decrease the constraining power of photometric galaxy surveys and cause parameter biases in the cosmological interpretation of future surveys. We quantify these biases and devise mitigation strategies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2019

Overview of new MAST physics in anticipation of first results from MAST Upgrade

We report that the mega amp spherical tokamak (MAST) was a low aspect ratio device (R/a = 0.85/0.65 ~ 1.3) with similar poloidal cross-section to other medium-size tokamaks. The physics programme concentrates on addressing key physics issues for the operation of ITER, design of DEMO and future spherical tokamaks by utilising high resolution diagnostic measurements closely coupled with theory and modelling to significantly advance our understanding. An empirical scaling of the energy confinement time that favours higher power, lower collisionality devices is consistent with gyrokinetic modelling of electron scale turbulence. Measurements of ion scale turbulence with beam emission spectroscopy and gyrokinetic modelling in up-down symmetric plasmas find that the symmetry of the turbulence is broken by flow shear. Near the non-linear stability threshold, flow shear tilts the density fluctuation correlation function and skews the fluctuation amplitude distribution. Results from fast particle physics studies include the observation that sawteeth are found to redistribute passing and trapped fast particles injected from neutral beam injectors in equal measure, suggesting that resonances between the m = 1 perturbation and the fast ion orbits may be playing a dominant role in the fast ion transport. Measured D–D fusion products from a neutron camera and a charged fusion product detector are 40% lower than predictions from TRANSP/NUBEAM, highlighting possible deficiencies in the guiding centre approximation. Modelling of fast ion losses in the presence of resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) can reproduce trends observed in experiments when the plasma response and charge-exchange losses are accounted for. Measurements with a neutral particle analyser during merging-compression start-up indicate the acceleration of ions and electrons. Transport at the plasma edge has been improved through reciprocating probe measurements that have characterised a geodesic acoustic mode at the edge of an ohmic L-mode plasma and particle-in-cell modelling has improved the interpretation of plasma potential estimates from ball-pen probes. The application of RMPs leads to a reduction in particle confinement in L-mode and H-mode and an increase in the core ionization source. The ejection of secondary filaments following type-I ELMs correlates with interactions with surfaces near the X-point. Simulations of the interaction between pairs of filaments in the scrape-off layer suggest this results in modest changes to their velocity, and in most cases can be treated as moving independently. A stochastic model of scrape-off layer profile formation based on the superposition of non-interacting filaments is in good agreement with measured time-average profiles. Transport in the divertor has been improved through fast camera imaging, indicating the presence of a quiescent region devoid of filament near the X-point, extending from the separatrix to $ψ_n$ ~ 1.02. Simulations of turbulent transport in the divertor show that the angle between the divertor leg on the curvature vector strongly influences transport into the private flux region via the interchange mechanism. Coherence imaging measurements show counter-streaming flows of impurities due to gas puffing increasing the pressure on field lines where the gas is ionised. MAST Upgrade is based on the original MAST device, with substantially improved capabilities to operate with a Super-X divertor to test extended divertor leg concepts. SOLPS-ITER modelling predicts the detachment threshold will be reduced by more than a factor of 2, in terms of upstream density, in the Super-X compared with a conventional configuration and that the radiation front movement is passively stabilised before it reaches the X-point. 1D fluid modelling reveals the key role of momentum and power loss mechanisms in governing detachment onset and evolution. Analytic modelling indicates that long legs placed at large major radius, or equivalently low at the target compared with the X-point are more amenable to external control. With MAST Upgrade experiments expected in 2019, a thorough characterisation of the sources of the intrinsic error field has been carried out and a mitigation strategy developed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wind farm response to mesoscale-driven coastal low level jets: a multiscale large eddy simulation study

Realistic atmospheric turbulence–wind farm interactions during coastal low-level jet (LLJ) events are captured using high-fidelity, mesoscale-driven large eddy simulations (LES) to understand wind turbine loads, wakes and overall performance. The simulation has been carried out using the ExaWind aeroelastic solver, AMR-Wind. The simulations have been compared against a baseline unstable case matching the wind speed, wind direction and TI at hub-height location. Results indicate that the LLJ has negative impacts on the turbine hub and tower loads, and opens up potential avenues for design load mitigation strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Evaluation of commercial ADC radiation tolerance for accelerator experiments

Electronic components used in high energy physics experiments are subjected to a radiation background composed of high energy hadrons, mesons and photons. These particles can induce permanent and transient effects that affect the normal device operation. Ionizing dose and displacement damage can cause chronic damage which disable the device permanently. Transient effects or single event effects are in general recoverable with time intervals that depend on the nature of the failure. The magnitude of these effects is technology dependent with feature size being one of the key parameters. Analog to digital converters are components that are frequently used in detector front end electronics, generally placed as close as possible to the sensing elements to maximize signal fidelity. We report on radiation effects tests conducted on 17 commercially available analog to digital converters and extensive single event effect measurements on specific twelve and fourteen bit ADCs that presented high tolerance to ionizing dose. We discuss mitigation strategies for single event effects (SEE) for their use in the large hadron collider environment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulations of future particle accelerators: issues and mitigations

The ever increasing demands placed upon machine performance have resulted in the need for more comprehensive particle accelerator modeling. Computer simulations are key to the success of particle accelerators. Many aspects of particle accelerators rely on computer modeling at some point, sometimes requiring complex simulation tools and massively parallel supercomputing. Examples include the modeling of beams at extreme intensities and densities (toward the quantum degeneracy limit), and with ultra-fine control (down to the level of individual particles). In the future, adaptively tuned models might also be relied upon to provide beam measurements beyond the resolution of existing diagnostics. Much time and effort has been put into creating accelerator software tools, some of which are highly successful. However, there are also shortcomings such as the general inability of existing software to be easily modified to meet changing simulation needs. In this paper possible mitigating strategies are discussed for issues faced by the accelerator community as it endeavors to produce better and more comprehensive modeling tools. This includes lack of coordination between code developers, lack of standards to make codes portable and/or reusable, lack of documentation, among others.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterisation of signal-induced noise in Hamamatsu R11265 Multianode Photomultiplier Tubes

Signal-induced noise is observed in Hamamatsu R11265 Multianode Photomultiplier Tubes, manifesting up to several microseconds after the single photoelectron response signal and localised in specific anodes. The mean number of noise pulses varies between devices, and shows significant dependence on the applied high-voltage. The characterisation of this noise and the mitigation strategies to perform optimal single-photon counting at 40 MHz, as required by the LHCb Ring-Imaging Cherenkov detectors, are reported.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

The NEWS-G detector at SNOLAB

The New Experiments With Spheres-Gas (NEWS-G) collaboration intends to achieve sub-GeV/c 2 Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) detection using Spherical Proportional Counters (SPCs). SPCs are gaseous detectors relying on ionisation with a single ionization electron energy threshold. The latest generation of SPC for direct dark matter searches has been installed at SNOLAB in Canada in 2021. This article details the different processes involved in the fabrication of the NEWS-G experiment. Also outlined in this paper are the mitigation strategies, measurements of radioactivity of the different components, and estimations of induced background event rates that were used to quantify and address detector backgrounds.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Upgrade and characterization of the fast-channels of Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzers in the DIII-D tokamak

This publication presents the characterization of the recently upgraded fast (MHz) channels of the DIII-D Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzers. The new system allows for a phase space resolution of < 10 keV and < 10 cm. The main source of noise is due to the background radiation (neutrons and gammas) present in the diagnostic lab during experiments, which can hit the photomultipliers and generate large spikes in signal. Good linear correlations (r 2 > 0.9) are found between the average rate of noise spikes in the fast channels and the average neutron rate. Additional noise is caused by the scintillation of the optical fibers used to guide the signal to the acquisition system, which is induced by neutron and gamma impacts. A correlation factor r 2 > 0.6 between the baseline noise caused by this scintillation and the signals in the neutron diagnostic was found. Possible mitigation strategies, such as the use of shielding and filters, are discussed. These allow to reduce the noise spike rate by an order of magnitude and the noise baseline by a factor 4. Despite the noise, it is shown that the upgraded fast channels provide enough signal-to-noise ratio to observe coherent fluctuations of the energetic particle population.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the compound hazard of freezing rain and wind gusts across CONUS

Abstract The co-occurrence of freezing rain, ice accumulation and wind gusts (FZG) poses a significant hazard to infrastructure and transportation. However, quantification of the frequency and intensity of FZG is challenged by the lack of direct icing measurements. In this work, we evaluate and then apply an energy balance model to high-frequency data collected during 2005–2022 to derive hourly ice accumulation at 883 stations across the contiguous USA. These estimates are combined with wind gust observations to compute time series of hourly FZG hazard magnitude using the Sperry–Piltz Ice Accumulation (SPIA) index. Results are evaluated using Storm Reports of damage and economic disruption. The hourly SPIA estimates are also used to (i) derive a geospatial atlas of the hazard including the 50 yr return period event intensities for each US state derived using superstations, and (ii) describe storylines of significant events in terms of meteorological drivers and socioeconomic impacts. The highest values of SPIA during the 18 yr study period occur in a region extending from the Southern Great Plains over the Midwest into the densely populated Northeast. States in these regions also have high 50 yr return period maximum radial ice accumulation of 3–5 cm and co-occurring wind gusts >30 ms −1 . These values are comparable to past estimates for the 500 yr event which may imply this hazard has been previously underestimated. This atlas can be used to inform optimal FZG hazard mitigation strategies for each state/region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Life-cycle carbon footprint and total production potential of cross-laminated timber from California’s wildland-urban interface

The frequency, scale, and severity of wildfires are steadily increasing in the Western United States. Sustainable forest management practices through forest thinning could reduce the impact of wildfires and provide lumber for wood-based, long-lived, and low-carbon building materials. This study explores the potential for harvesting biomass in California (CA) to mitigate wildfire risk and provide multi-decade carbon storage in the form of cross-laminated timber (CLT) for use in buildings. First, we assessed biomass resource availability, finding that the total live hardwood and live softwood available in the wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) across CA sums to 14.1 million metric tons (MMT) and 34.9 MMT, respectively, which contains the equivalent of 90 MMT of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Then, we conducted a life cycle assessment of CLT considering softwood and hardwood sources to provide insights into emissions and energy demand associated with utilization of the wood removed for wildfire risk management. We found that the net life cycle carbon footprint of live hardwood and softwood when including biogenic carbon storage/emissions is 414 and 317 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. To incorporate the timing of these emissions and uptake, we have also conducted a cradle-to-grave time-dependent global warming potential (GWP) analysis. The time-adjusted GWP for live hardwood and live softwood is −227 and −104 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. In terms of total CLT production potential, 0.03 and 0.005 million m3 CLT can be sourced from live softwood and hardwood, respectively, in WUI on gentle slopes in CA. The resulting insights and approaches from this study are broadly applicable to other forested regions and WUIs across the US and the world, and provide a holistic approach to use forest thinning as a wildfire mitigation strategy in combination with a novel approach for life cycle assessment of building materials with a limited dataset.

Bose, Baishakhi↗

DOE OSTI2026

Meta-analysis of North American Arctic and boreal aboveground biomass datasets: assessing accuracy, dynamics, and similarities

The North American arctic and boreal regions (ABRs) are rapidly warming and experiencing intensifying disturbances. Accurately quantifying aboveground biomass (AGB) is critical for understanding the impacts of these changes on the carbon cycle and for designing climate change mitigation strategies. Several AGB maps have been developed for the North American ABRs, including recent contributions from National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) campaign. However, these maps differ widely in training data, methodology, and resulting AGB density estimates. Presently, a comprehensive comparative evaluation is lacking, making it difficult for users to select datasets suited to their research or management needs. Here, in this study, we conducted a comparative analysis of nine AGB density datasets across North American ABRs, specifically for Alaska and Canada. We (1) summarized AGB by ecoregion and Canadian provinces, (2) evaluated their accuracy against field-based measurements, (3) analyzed spatial and temporal similarities among datasets, and (4) assessed their ability to capture disturbance (fire and harvest) impacts on AGB. We found substantial variation in regional and local AGB estimates across datasets, with overall accuracy ranging from R 2 = 0.25–0.62 and Bias% from −47.8% to 69.9% when validated against field plots. Despite these differences, most datasets have comparatively consistent spatial patterns in AGB (r > 0.8 for most cases). In contrast, agreement on the temporal patterns of AGB change is generally low. We found datasets with spatial resolutions ⩽300 m are capable of capturing disturbance impacts on AGB dynamics, though sensitivity varies across products. Our findings and dataset summary provide guidance for selecting appropriate AGB datasets for different applications within our study area. Our analysis also highlights the need to decrease map bias and increase capability to detect temporal change to decrease uncertainty of AGB datasets potentially by using training data which is representative of major plant functional types within the mapped area.

ABoVE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Energy and Meteorological Impacts on Thanksgiving CO2 in Salt Lake City

Abstract Long-term, high-frequency atmospheric CO2 measurements at multiple sites in the Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah, reveal that annual and monthly CO2 variability aligns with a priori estimates of emissions from anthropogenic and biological sources. In this study, we investigate whether short-term fluctuations in anthropogenic emissions, as captured in the Vulcan3 dataset for the United States, can be detected in atmospheric CO2 observations. Specifically, we focus on Thanksgiving holidays, when traffic and energy usage patterns differ from the rest of November. Onroad CO2 emissions exhibit a double peak during weekday morning and evening rush hours but remain relatively low on weekends and Thanksgiving. Interestingly, CO2 mole fractions during Thanksgiving were higher than the rest of November at all SLC monitoring sites, particularly from 2008 to 2013. This increase is partially attributed to elevated energy-related emissions — especially residential sources — and meteorological factors such as weak wind speeds, cold temperature, and a low planetary boundary layer height (PBLH). While CO₂ emissions and mole fraction patterns align over time, notable spatial differences exist. For instance, the near-highway site in Murray shows the highest CO₂ mole fractions despite low local emissions, suggesting pollution transport via highways and wind advection. Random Forest model-based SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis reveals that onroad emissions dominate CO2 contributions on weekdays and weekends, while energy-related emissions play a larger role during Thanksgiving, alongside meteorological drivers such as wind speed and PBLH. Across six urban cities, CO2 emissions display a consistent pattern: residential and commercial (onroad) emissions peak during Thanksgiving (weekday) with substantial (minimal) year-to-year variability. These findings highlight that urban CO₂ variability is driven by the combined influence of emissions and meteorology, underscoring the need for integrated mitigation strategies. Additionally, multi-site measurements are essential for accurate source attribution and the development of effective policy interventions. 

Ryoo, Ju-Mee (ORCID:0000000234256296)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Iso-cost-performance of thermal energy storage

As thermal energy storage (TES) systems gain increasing recognition as next-generation energy storage solutions, evaluating their techno-economic performance is crucial. This perspective analyzes the cost-performance of latent heat-based TES systems and introduces the concept of iso-cost-performance—maintaining a constant cost per unit energy ($\$$/kWh) despite material degradation. Using an empirical degradation model, we show that after 1200 thermal cycles, the thermal conductivity and volumetric energy density of a paraffin-based phase change material (PCM) decreased by 36.0% and 26.1%, respectively, resulting in a 31.2% reduction in the figure of merit (FOM) and, consequently, the system cost-performance. However, by introducing thermally conductive additives to enhance effective thermal conductivity, the TES system can recover its initial FOM, achieving iso-cost-performance operation. This framework quantitatively demonstrates how degradation-mitigation strategies—such as improving thermal conductivity—can offset material degradations and maintain long-term cost-effectiveness. Beyond PCM-based TES, the proposed FOM-based approach provides a generalized pathway for cost-performance optimization across various TES technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discriminative versus generative approaches to simulation-based inference

Most of the fundamental, emergent, and phenomenological parameters of particle and nuclear physics are determined through parametric template fits. Simulations are used to populate histograms which are then matched to data. This approach is inherently lossy, since histograms are binned and low-dimensional. Deep learning has enabled unbinned and high-dimensional parameter estimation through neural likelihood(-ratio) estimation. We compare two approaches for neural simulation-based inference (NSBI): one based on discriminative learning (classification) and one based on generative modeling. These two approaches are directly evaluated on the same datasets, with a similar level of hyperparameter optimization in both cases. In addition to a Gaussian dataset, we study NSBI using a Higgs boson dataset from the FAIR Universe Challenge. We find that both the direct likelihood and likelihood ratio estimation are able to effectively extract parameters with reasonable uncertainties. For the numerical examples and within the set of hyperparameters studied, we found that the likelihood ratio method is more accurate and/or precise. Both methods have a significant spread from the network training and would require ensembling or other mitigation strategies in practice.

high energy physics↗