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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Capturing Infrastructure Interdependencies for Power Outages Prediction During Extreme Events

As extreme weather events such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods grow in frequency and intensity, the disruption of power grid systems poses significant challenges, including widespread electrical outages, economic losses, and threats to public safety. This paper presents a forward-looking approach that leverages geographical graph-based machine learning models to predict county-level maximum power outages during such events. By capturing the intricate interdependencies within power system networks, our approach aims to provide precise and actionable predictions that can optimize emergency response efforts and enhance grid resilience. Through the integration of real-world data, including hurricane advisories and power outage records, we have trained and benchmarked multiple machine learning models, demonstrating the feasibility and potential of this method. While our initial results are promising, this paper also charts a course for advancing these models, addressing the remaining challenges, and ultimately transforming how we anticipate and respond to the impacts of extreme weather on power systems.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt) [ORNL] (ORCID:000000021317511↗
DOE OSTI2023

Perspectives on Artificial Intelligence for Predictions in Ecohydrology

Abstract In November 2021, the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop was held, which involved hundreds of researchers from dozens of institutions. There were 17 sessions held at the workshop, including one on ecohydrology. The ecohydrology session included various breakout rooms that addressed specific topics, including 1) soils and belowground areas; 2) watersheds; 3) hydrology; 4) ecophysiology and plant hydraulics; 5) ecology; 6) extremes, disturbance and fire, and land-use and land-cover change; and 7) uncertainty quantification methods and techniques. In this paper, we investigate and report on the potential application of artificial intelligence and machine learning in ecohydrology, highlight outcomes of the ecohydrology session at the AI4ESP workshop, and provide visionary perspectives for future research in this area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Learning to Predict Material Structure from Neutron Scattering Data

Understanding structural properties of materials and how they relate to its atomic structure, while extremely challenging, is a key scientific quest that has dominated the landscape of materials research for decades. Neutron and X-ray scattering is a state-of-the-art method to investigate material structure on the atomic scale. Traditional methods of processing neutron scattering data to decipher the structure of target materials have relied on computing scattering patterns using physics-based forward models and comparing them with experimentally gathered scattering profiles within a computationally expensive optimization loop. Here, we report an initial design of a data-driven machine learning pipeline for material structure prediction that is computationally faster (once trained) and potentially more accurate. We describe the architecture of the ML pipeline and a preliminary benchmarking study of shallow machine learning models in terms of their prediction accuracy and limitations. We show that material structure prediction from neutron scattering data using shallow learning models is feasible to within 90% prediction accuracy for certain classes of materials but deeper models are required for more general material structure predictions.

Garcia Cardona, Cristina↗
DOE OSTI2023

An finite element analysis surrogate model with boundary oriented graph embedding approach for rapid design

Abstract In this work, we present a boundary oriented graph embedding (BOGE) approach for the graph neural network to assist in rapid design and digital prototyping. The cantilever beam problem has been solved as an example to validate its potential of providing physical field results and optimized designs using only 10 ms. Providing shortcuts for both boundary elements and local neighbor elements, the BOGE approach can embed unstructured mesh elements into the graph and performs an efficient regression on large-scale triangular-mesh-based finite element analysis (FEA) results, which cannot be realized by other machine-learning-based surrogate methods. It has the potential to serve as a surrogate model for other boundary value problems. Focusing on the cantilever beam problem, the BOGE approach with 3-layer DeepGCN model achieves the regression with mean square error (MSE) of 0.011 706 (2.41% mean absolute percentage error) for stress field prediction and 0.002 735 MSE (with 1.58% elements having error larger than 0.01) for topological optimization. The overall concept of the BOGE approach paves the way for a general and efficient deep-learning-based FEA simulator that will benefit both industry and Computer Aided Design (CAD) design-related areas.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tackling Disorder in γ‐Ga 2 O 3

Abstract Ga 2 O 3 and its polymorphs are attracting increasing attention. The rich structural space of polymorphic oxide systems such as Ga 2 O 3 offers potential for electronic structure engineering, which is of particular interest for a range of applications, such as power electronics. γ‐Ga 2 O 3 presents a particular challenge across synthesis, characterization, and theory due to its inherent disorder and resulting complex structure–electronic‐structure relationship. Here, density functional theory is used in combination with a machine‐learning approach to screen nearly one million potential structures, thereby developing a robust atomistic model of the γ‐phase. Theoretical results are compared with surface and bulk sensitive soft and hard X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy, X‐ray absorption spectroscopy, spectroscopic ellipsometry, and photoluminescence excitation spectroscopy experiments representative of the occupied and unoccupied states of γ‐Ga 2 O 3 . The first onset of strong absorption at room temperature is found at 5.1 eV from spectroscopic ellipsometry, which agrees well with the excitation maximum at 5.17 eV obtained by photoluminescence excitation spectroscopy, where the latter shifts to 5.33 eV at 5 K. This work presents a leap forward in the treatment of complex, disordered oxides and is a crucial step toward exploring how their electronic structure can be understood in terms of local coordination and overall structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine‐Learning Spectral Indicators of Topology

Abstract Topological materials discovery has emerged as an important frontier in condensed matter physics. While theoretical classification frameworks have been used to identify thousands of candidate topological materials, experimental determination of materials’ topology often poses significant technical challenges. X‐ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a widely used materials characterization technique sensitive to atoms’ local symmetry and chemical bonding, which are intimately linked to band topology by the theory of topological quantum chemistry (TQC). Moreover, as a local structural probe, XAS is known to have high quantitative agreement between experiment and calculation, suggesting that insights from computational spectra can effectively inform experiments. In this work, computed X‐ray absorption near‐edge structure (XANES) spectra of more than 10 000 inorganic materials to train a neural network (NN) classifier that predicts topological class directly from XANES signatures, achieving F 1 scores of 89% and 93% for topological and trivial classes, respectively is leveraged. Given the simplicity of the XAS setup and its compatibility with multimodal sample environments, the proposed machine‐learning‐augmented XAS topological indicator has the potential to discover broader categories of topological materials, such as non‐cleavable compounds and amorphous materials, and may further inform field‐driven phenomena in situ, such as magnetic field‐driven topological phase transitions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Discovering charge density functionals and structure-property relationships with PROPhet: A general framework for coupling machine learning and first-principles methods

Modern ab initio methods have rapidly increased our understanding of solid state materials properties, chemical reactions, and the quantum interactions between atoms. However, poor scaling often renders direct ab initio calculations intractable for large or complex systems. There are two obvious avenues through which to remedy this problem: (i) develop new, less expensive methods to calculate system properties, or (ii) make existing methods faster. This paper describes an open source framework designed to pursue both of these avenues. PROPhet (short for PROPerty Prophet) utilizes machine learning techniques to find complex, non-linear mappings between sets of material or system properties. The result is a single code capable of learning analytical potentials, non-linear density functionals, and other structure-property or property-property relationships. These capabilities enable highly accurate mesoscopic simulations, facilitate computation of expensive properties, and enable the development of predictive models for systematic materials design and optimization. Here, this work explores the coupling of machine learning to ab initio methods through means both familiar (e.g., the creation of various potentials and energy functionals) and less familiar (e.g., the creation of density functionals for arbitrary properties), serving both to demonstrate PROPhet’s ability to create exciting post-processing analysis tools and to open the door to improving ab initio methods themselves with these powerful machine learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2024

Theoretical Prediction of Thermal Expansion Anisotropy for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 Environmental Barrier Coatings Using a Deep Neural Network Potential and Comparison to Experiment

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are an enabling technology for silicon carbide (SiC)-based ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in extreme environments such as gas turbine engines. However, development of new coating systems is hindered by the large design space and difficulty in predicting properties for these materials. Density Functional Theory (DFT) has successfully been used to model and predict some thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties of high-temperature ceramics for EBCs, although these calculations are challenging due to their high computational costs. In this work, we use machine learning to train a deep neural network potential (DNP) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 , which is then applied to calculate thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties at near-DFT accuracy much faster and using less computational resources than DFT. We use this DNP to predict phonon-based thermodynamic properties of Y 2 Si 2 O 7 with good agreement to DFT and experiments. We also utilize the DNP to calculate the anisotropic, lattice direction-dependent coefficients of thermal expansion (CTEs) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 . Molecular dynamics trajectories using the DNP correctly demonstrate accurate prediction of the anisotropy of the CTE in good agreement with diffraction experiments. In the future, this DNP could be applied to accelerate additional property calculations for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 compared to DFT or experiments.

rare earth silicates↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical Prediction of Thermal Expansion Anisotropy for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 Environmental Barrier Coatings Using a Deep Neural Network Potential and Comparison to Experiment

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are an enabling technology for silicon carbide (SiC)-based ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in extreme environments such as gas turbine engines. However, the development of new coating systems is hindered by the large design space and difficulty in predicting the properties for these materials. Density Functional Theory (DFT) has successfully been used to model and predict some thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties of high-temperature ceramics for EBCs, although these calculations are challenging due to their high computational costs. In this work, we use machine learning to train a deep neural network potential (DNP) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 , which is then applied to calculate the thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties at near-DFT accuracy much faster and using less computational resources than DFT. We use this DNP to predict the phonon-based thermodynamic properties of Y 2 Si 2 O 7 with good agreement to DFT and experiments. We also utilize the DNP to calculate the anisotropic, lattice direction-dependent coefficients of thermal expansion (CTEs) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 . Molecular dynamics trajectories using the DNP correctly demonstrate the accurate prediction of the anisotropy of the CTE in good agreement with the diffraction experiments. In the future, this DNP could be applied to accelerate additional property calculations for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 compared to DFT or experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nearest-Neighbor Machine Learning Feature Selection for Interpretation of Microbial Molecular Signatures from Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry Data

Mass spectrometry (MS) promises to be a powerful tool for potential biosignature detection during astrobiological missions on ocean worlds in our solar system. Accurate and generalizable machine learning methods could enhance science return on investment by predicting seawater chemistry and classifying isotopic biosignatures, either as a signature consistent with microbial life (biotic) or as a novelty (unclassified/unique). However, machine learning models are likely to be complex and involve interactions between MS features, making biosignatures difficult to interpret. Feature selection methods provide biological and chemical context that help interpret the mechanisms of machine learning models, but these methods also need the ability to detect complex interactions. Previously, we developed a machine learning feature selection algorithm called nearest-neighbor projected distance regression (NPDR) that has the ability to identify important model features that involve complex interactions and automatically reduce correlation and the dimensionality in a high-dimensional variable space. The standard distance metrics used in NPDR – Manhattan and Euclidean – assume the multivariate data are isotropic, which is often violated in real data due to differences in the covariance between variables. Thus, we extend NPDR to include a random forest distance, and other anisotropic distance metrics, for computing nearest neighbors. We also augment the isotope-ratio MS data with time-series features from the raw MS signal to improve biotic classification. We test NPDR on our novel experimental ocean world seawater analog MS data. We measure isotope fractionations of volatile CO 2 that could be measured in exospheres or plumes. Samples include baseline abiotic conditions using a range of possible seawater chemistry consistent with Europa and Enceladus, and biotic samples that include microbes in these seawaters. We use penalized NPDR with random forest proximity to identify interpretable microbial molecular signatures. We compare features with random forest importance, and we train a classifier that discriminates between biotic and abiotic samples with high accuracy. These ML-trained ocean-world analog MS data could be used to assist in identifying biosignatures during future missions.

geochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular Simulation of Lithium Carbonate Reactive Vapor–Liquid Equilibria Using a Deep Potential Model

We developed a first-principles machine learning model for the reactive vapor–liquid phase behavior of molten Li 2 CO 3 . The model was trained on ab initio electronic density functional theory data using the Deep Potential (DP) methodology, and its accuracy was evaluated by comparing model predictions of density and viscosity to experimental measurements. Direct coexistence simulations with the DP model over time scales of tens of nanoseconds were used to observe equilibrium dissociation of Li 2 CO 3 into CO 2 residing primarily in the vapor phase and Li 2 O which remains dissolved in the liquid. The simulations covered a range of temperatures, overall system sizes, and vapor-to-liquid volume ratios. Results were analyzed in terms of the observed chemical composition of the liquid and vapor phases, product structure, and CO 2 partial pressures. In addition, we calculated equilibrium constants for the dissociation reaction by assuming ideal-solution behavior for the liquid. As expected on the basis of thermodynamic arguments and prior experiments for this system, the observed partial pressure of CO 2 in the gas phase depends on both the temperature and the ratio of vapor to liquid volumes, while the calculated equilibrium constants only depend on temperature. DP model predictions for the equilibrium constant of the reaction are generally consistent with the available experimental measurements. Furthermore, the present study establishes the validity of the DP methodology for the description of reactive, multiphase equilibria from first principles, with possible applications to many other systems of scientific and technological interest even in the absence of relevant experimental measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Toward Fast and Reliable Potential Energy Surfaces for Metallic Pt Clusters by Hierarchical Delta Neural Networks

Data-driven machine learning force fields (MLF) are more and more popular in atomistic simulations, and exploit machine learning methods to predict energies and forces for unknown structures based on the knowledge learned from an existing reference database. The latter usually comes from density functional theory calculations. One main drawback of MLFs is that physical laws are not incorporated in the machine learning models and instead, MLFs are designed to be very flexible to simulate complex quantum chemistry potential energy surface (PES). In general, MLFs have poor transferability, and hence a very large trainset is required to span all the target feature space to get a reliable MLF. This procedure becomes more troublesome when the PES is complicated, with a large number of degrees of freedom, in which building a large database is inevitable and very expensive, especially when accurate but costly exchange-correlation functionals have to be used. In this manuscript, we exploit a high dimensional neural network potential (HDNNP) on Pt clusters of size 6 to 20 as one example. Furthermore, our standard level of energy calculation is DFT GGA (PBE) using a plane wave basis set. We introduce an approximate but fast level with the PBE functional and a minimal atomic orbital basis set, then a more accurate but expensive level, using a hybrid functional or non-local vdw functional and a plane wave basis set, is reliably predicted by learning the difference with HDNNP. Findings show that such a differential approach (named ΔHDNNP) can deliver very accurate predictions (error < 10 meV/atom) in reference to converged basis set energies as well as more accurate but expensive xc functional. The overall speedup can be as large as 900 for 20 atom Pt cluster. More importantly, ΔHDNNP shows much better transferability due to the intrinsic smoothness of delta potential energy surface, and accordingly one can use much smaller trainset data to obtain better accuracy than the conventional HDNNP. A multi-layer ΔHDNNP is thus proposed to obtain very accurate predictions versus expensive non-local vdW functional calculations in which the required trainset is further reduced. The approach can be easily generalized to any other machine learning methods and opens a path to study the structure and dynamics of Pt clusters and nanoparticles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis from Mesoscale Convective Systems using Machine Learning

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is a problem of great significance in climate and weather research. Although various environmental conditions necessary for TC genesis have been recognized for a long time, prediction of TC genesis remains a challenge due to complex and stochastic processes involved during TC genesis. Different from traditional statistical and dynamical modeling of TC genesis, in this research, a machine learning framework is developed to determine whether a mesoscale convective system (MCS) would evolve into a tropical cyclone. The machine learning models 1) are built upon a number of essential environmental predictors associated with MCS/TC, 2) predict whether MCSs can become TCs at different lead times, 3) provide information about the relative importance of each predictor, which can be conducive to discovering new aspects of TC genesis. The results indicate that the machine learning classifier, AdaBoost, is able to achieve a 97.2% F1-score accuracy in predicting TC genesis over the entire tropics at a 6-hour lead time using a comprehensive set of environmental predictors. A robust performance can still be attained when the lead time is extended to 12 hours, 24 hours, and 48 hours, and when this machine learning classifier is separately applied to the North Atlantic Ocean and the Western North Pacific Ocean. In contrast, the conventional approach based on genesis potential index can only have no more than 80% F1-score accuracy. Moreover, the machine learning classifier suggests that the low-level vorticity and genesis potential index are the most important predictors to TC genesis, which is consistent with previous discoveries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A CHIL Validation of Machine Learning-Assisted Methods for Real-Time Controls of Solar PV for Grid Services

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been proposed; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. This paper addresses this gap by designing and developing a controller-hardware-in-the-loop framework to evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. Simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional reference-control grouping-based approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗