Data Used in Quantified Reliability Models - Comparison of Reported Data from Multiple Data Sources
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Kleinhammer, Roger K.↗
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Real-Time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-Resolution Model Implementation and Verification
NASA's Launch Services Program, Ground Systems Development and Operations, Space Launch System and other programs at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) use the daily and weekly weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) as decision tools for their day-to-day and launch operations on the Eastern Range (ER). Examples include determining if they need to limit activities such as vehicle transport to the launch pad, protect people, structures or exposed launch vehicles given a threat of severe weather, or reschedule other critical operations. The 45 WS uses numerical weather prediction models as a guide for these weather forecasts, particularly the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 1.67 km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Considering the 45 WS forecasters' and Launch Weather Officers' (LWO) extensive use of the AFWA model, the 45 WS proposed a task at the September 2013 Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Tasking Meeting requesting the AMU verify this model. Due to the lack of archived model data available from AFWA, verification is not yet possible. Instead, the AMU proposed to implement and verify the performance of an ER version of the high-resolution WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model configured by the AMU (Watson 2013) in real time. Implementing a real-time version of the ER WRF-EMS would generate a larger database of model output than in the previous AMU task for determining model performance, and allows the AMU more control over and access to the model output archive. The tasking group agreed to this proposal; therefore the AMU implemented the WRF-EMS model on the second of two NASA AMU modeling clusters. The AMU also calculated verification statistics to determine model performance compared to observational data. Finally, the AMU made the model output available on the AMU Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS II) servers, which allows the 45 WS and AMU staff to customize the model output display on the AMU and Range Weather Operations (RWO) AWIPS II client computers and conduct real-time subjective analyses.
Meteorology↗
Quantifying the Storm Time Thermospheric Neutral Density Variations Using Model and Observations
Accurate determination of thermospheric neutral density holds crucial importance for satellited rag calculations. The problem is twofold and involves the correct estimation of the quiet time climatology and storm time variations. In this work, neutral density estimations from two empirical and threephysics based models of the ionosphere thermosphere are compared with the neutral densities along the Challenging MicroSatellite Payload satellite track for six geomagnetic storms. Storm time variations are extracted from neutral density by (1) subtracting the mean difference between model and observation (bias),(2) setting climatological variations to zero, and (3) multiplying model data with the quiet time ratio between the model and observation. Several metrics are employed to evaluate the model performances. We find that the removal of bias or climatology reveals actual performance of the model in simulating the storm time variations. When bias is removed, depending on event and model, storm time errors in neutral density can decrease by an amount of 113% or can increase by an amount of 12% with respect to error in models with quiet time bias. It is shown that using only average and maximum values of neutral density to determine the model performances can be misleading since a model can estimate the averages fairly well but may not capture the maximum value or vice versa. Since each of the metrics used for determining model performances provides different aspects of the error, among these, we suggest employing mean absolute error, prediction efficiency, and normalized root mean square error together as a standard set ofmetrics for the neutral density.
Eyiguler, E. Ceren Kalafatoglu↗
Status of Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) Upgrades
Venus-GRAM Overview - Engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of Venus atmospheric properties - Outputs include atmospheric density, temperature, pressure, chemical composition, and wind components along a user-defined path - Widely used by the engineering community because of its ability to create realistic atmospheric dispersions - Can be integrated into high fidelity flight dynamic simulations of launch, entry, descent and landing (EDL), aerobraking and aerocapture - Has been used in multiple studies and proposals including NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Autonomous Aerobraking Study and various Discovery proposals - Optional trajectory input file consisting of time, height, latitude, and longitude can be used to provide the Venus-GRAM trajectory path - Optional auxiliary profile consisting of height, latitude, longitude, temperature, pressure, density, eastward wind, and northward wind may be used to replace model data in Venus-GRAM - Not a forecast model - GRAMs are also available for Earth, Mars, Titan, Neptune, Uranus, and Jupiter - Available through the NASA Software Catalog https://software.nasa.gov/software/MFS-33888-1
atmospheric models↗
[Global Atmospheric Chemistry/Transport Modeling and Data-Analysis]
This grant supported a global atmospheric chemistry/transport modeling and data- analysis project devoted to: (a) development, testing, and refining of inverse methods for determining regional and global transient source and sink strengths for trace gases; (b) utilization of these inverse methods which use either the Model for Atmospheric Chemistry and Transport (MATCH) which is based on analyzed observed winds or back- trajectories calculated from these same winds for determining regional and global source and sink strengths for long-lived trace gases important in ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect; (c) determination of global (and perhaps regional) average hydroxyl radical concentrations using inverse methods with multiple "titrating" gases; and (d) computation of the lifetimes and spatially resolved destruction rates of trace gases using 3D models. Important ultimate goals included determination of regional source strengths of important biogenic/anthropogenic trace gases and also of halocarbons restricted by the Montreal Protocol and its follow-on agreements, and hydrohalocarbons now used as alternatives to the above restricted halocarbons.
Prinn, Ronald G.↗
Model associated with: "Thermodynamic control on the decomposition of organic matter across different electron acceptors"
This model data package is associated with the publication “Thermodynamic control on the decomposition of organic matter across different electron acceptors” submitted to Soil Biology and Biochemistry (Zheng et al., 2023; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2024.109364).In this research, a thermodynamic modeling framework is built to flexibly incorporate both organic matter (OM) molecules and electron acceptors for estimating potential free energy release from various redox reactions and to further predict reaction rates based on Microbial Transition State Theory. The model package includes scripts for thermodynamic modeling and postprocessing. Input Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance (FTICR) data are from a previous experimental study (Boye et al., 2018), and model outputs are free energy predictions and stoichiometric coefficients associated with all possible redox reactions.This data package is associated with the project GitHub repository found at MM_bioenergetic_modeling.This data package contains four folders (Input_FTICR, Model, Output, and Output_processing), a file-level metadata (FLMD) csv, and a data dictionary (dd) csv. Please see Zheng_bioenergetic_modeling_flmd.csv for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The Zheng_bioenergetic_modeling_dd.csv file describes the csv column headers. The “Model” folder contains scripts to run energy balance calculations for each electron acceptor. The “Output” folder contains csv files with stoichiometric information from model simulations. And the "Output_processing" folder contains scripts for reaction rate calculations and to generate plots.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Application of ML/AI for Identifying Earth Science Datasets in Research Publications
NASA Data Active Archive Centers, or DAACs, ingest, store and distribute data acquired from satellites, ground systems as well as modelling data. These data are organized by the datasets, each presenting collection of files usually associated with the certain mission, instrument, processing level, parameter(s), algorithm and/or model. The number of datasets offered by a single DAAC to the public varies. GES DISC, for example, currently offers for public use approximately ~1,300 datasets. While each publicly offered dataset comes with supporting documentation, it is challenging for novice and even experienced scientists to navigate among the datasets that offer similar parameters to find the datasets for their particular research application. Supplying dataset documentation with the scientific paper citations that refer to that dataset provides means for the dataset users to educate themselves with the application research that dataset is being used in. Collecting citations of the papers that use the datasets for their research yield valuable insights into application areas of those datasets, information about usage of the dataset groups for specific applications and those application topics. It also gives insights into the “deep metrics” of the dataset usage, as opposed to the common metrics of the dataset usage such as number of users who downloaded the dataset files and volumes of downloaded data. Association of a certain scientific paper with the dataset(s) presents a challenge because most of the paper authors do not properly cite the datasets, datasets usually have cryptic names and Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) that are used for dataset identification were assigned to the datasets only few years ago. Simple Google or online library search do not provide even meaningful fraction of the results when performed by the dataset name or DOI, however they provide too many results when the search is done by more broader terms such as mission and instrument names. Attempts to create an AI system capable to identify dataset in the scientific papers have already been made using neural networks classifiers on the basis of the dataset mission, instrument and variable name. This method was applied to NASA SEDAC, which has 41 datasets in total. In GES DISC there can be as many as ~100 datasets per mission/instrument with some of the datasets consisting of multiple variables so there is a need for more differentiating parameters for dataset identification in the paper. The approach we are currently investigating is creating AI classifiers that are based on multiple dataset features, or keywords, extracted from the NASA Earthdata Common Dataset Repository (CMR). The features are weighted based on how precisely they can identify a dataset. The classifier uses preprocessed paper text as input and searches for the CMR datasets whose feature sets are the closest to the feature sets contained in the paper. The challenges of dataset identification include variety of ways the paper authors describe the datasets in their papers and incomplete tagging of the CMR dataset description (DIFs).
Irina Gerasimov↗
Development of physics-consistent conditional diffusion model to overcome data scarcity in critical heat flux
Deep generative modeling provides a powerful pathway to overcome data scarcity in energy-related applications where experimental data are often limited. By learning the underlying probability distribution of the training dataset, deep generative models, such as the diffusion model, can generate high-fidelity synthetic samples that statistically resemble the training data. Such synthetic data generation can significantly enrich the size and diversity of the available training data, and more importantly, improve the robustness of downstream machine learning models in predictive tasks. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of diffusion models for overcoming data scarcity in nuclear energy applications. By leveraging a public dataset on critical heat flux which covers a wide range of commercial nuclear reactor operational conditions, we developed a diffusion model that can generate an arbitrary amount of synthetic samples. Since a vanilla diffusion model can only generate samples randomly, we also developed a conditional diffusion model capable of generating targeted critical heat flux data under user-specified thermal-hydraulic conditions. The performance of the diffusion model was evaluated based on its ability to capture empirical feature distributions and pair-wise correlations, as well as to maintain physical consistency. The results showed that both the diffusion model and conditional diffusion model can successfully generate realistic and physics-consistent critical heat flux data. Furthermore, uncertainty quantification results demonstrate that the conditional diffusion model is highly effective in augmenting critical heat flux data while maintaining acceptable levels of uncertainty.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
A preliminary harmonic spline model from Magsat data
A preliminary main field model for 1980 derived from a carefully selected subset of Magsat vector measurements, using the method of harmonic splines, is presented. This model (PHS /80/) for preliminary harmonic splines is the smoothest model (in the sense that the rms radial field at the core surface is minimum) consistent with the measurements (with an rms misfit of 10 nT to account for crustal and external fields as well as noise in the measurement procedure). Therefore PHS (80) is more suitable for studies of the core than models derived with the traditional least squares approach (e.g., GSFC /9/80/). A comparison is conducted of the characteristics of the harmonic spline spectrum, topology of the core field and especially the null-flux curves (loci where the radial field is zero) and the flux through patches bounded by such curves. PHS (80) is less complex than GSFC (9/80) and is therefore more representative of that part of the core field that the data constrain.
Shure, L.↗
Identification of a coupled flapping/inflow model for the PUMA helicopter from flight test data
A model validation procedure is applied to a coupled flapping/inflow model of a PUMA helicopter blade. The structure of the baseline model is first established. Model structure and flight test data are checked for consistency. Parameters of the model are then identified from the flight test data.
Du Val, Ronald↗
The Ocean Carbon States Database: A Proof-of-Concept Application of Cluster Analysis in the Ocean Carbon Cycle
In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the 'ocean carbon states', as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical-subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air-sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown to be most important in the Southern Ocean flux bias.
carbon cycle↗
An experimental study of several wind tunnel wall configurations using two V/STOL model configurations
Experiments were conducted in the low speed wind tunnel using two V/STOL models, a jet-flap and a jet-in-fuselage configuration, to search for a wind tunnel wall configuration to minimize wall interference on V/STOL models. Data were also obtained on the jet-flap model with a uniform slotted wall configuration to provide comparisons between theoretical and experimental wall interference. A test section configuration was found which provided some data in reasonable agreement with interference-free results over a wide range of momentum coefficients.
Binion, T. W., Jr.↗
Development of mathematical techniques for the assimilation of remote sensing data into atmospheric models
The problem of the assimilation of remote sensing data into mathematical models of atmospheric pollutant species was investigated. The data assimilation problem is posed in terms of the matching of spatially integrated species burden measurements to the predicted three-dimensional concentration fields from atmospheric diffusion models. General conditions were derived for the reconstructability of atmospheric concentration distributions from data typical of remote sensing applications, and a computational algorithm (filter) for the processing of remote sensing data was developed.
Seinfeld, J. H.↗
Scaling Equations for Ballistic Modeling of Solid Rocket Motor Case Breach
This paper explores the development of a series of scaling equations that can take a known nominal motor performance and scale it for small and growing case failures. This model was developed for the Malfunction-Turn Study as part of Return to Flight activities for the Space Shuttle program. To verify the model, data from the Challenger accident (STS- 51L) were used. The model is able to predict the motor performance beyond the last recorded Challenger data and show how the failed right hand booster would have performed if the vehicle had remained intact.
McMillin, Joshua E.↗
Contribution of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center
As part of a special international effort, three nozzles were designed and tested on single nacelle models in wind tunnels of several nations belonging to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. All three of these nozzles were investigated in the Langley 16-foot transonic wind tunnel at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Langley Research Center. Langley Research Center also contributed theoretical calculations of the jet plume boundary and afterbody pressures. The calculations were obtained using an iterative solution which combined the inviscid Douglas Neumann method for the external flow with the method of characteristics for the flow in the jet plume. For the investigation, the nozzles were mounted on a single nacelle model 15.24 centimeters in diameter and 162.56 centimeters long. Tests were made at free stream Mach number from 0.4 to 1.2, and at Reynolds numbers per meter from 7.38 million to 13.78 million depending on the Mach number. Four types of data were recorded: afterbody pressure data, afterbody force data, model boundary layer data, and tunnel wall pressure data. The ratio of jet total pressure to free stream static pressure ranged up to 8.5. A description of the wind tunnel, model, and test procedure is included.
Compton, W. B., III↗
Thematic mapper flight model preshipment review data package. Volume 3, part C: System data
Failure reports for flight model-1 of the thematic mapper are summarized showing the symptom and cause of failure as well as the corrective action taken. Each report is keyed to the major subsystem against which the failure occurred. Requests for deviation/waiver are listed by number, description, and current status. Copies of engineering proposals are included.
Source record↗
Bayesian Hierarchical Air-Sea Interaction Modeling: Application to the Labrador Sea
The objectives are to: 1) Organize data from 26 MINIMET drifters in the Labrador Sea, including sensor calibration and error checking of ARGOS transmissions. 2) Produce wind direction, barometer, and sea surface temperature time series. In addition, provide data from historical file of 150 SHARP drifters in the Labrador Sea. 3) Work with data interpretation and data-modeling assimilation issues.
Niiler, Pearn P.↗
An initial model for estimating soybean development stages from spectral data
A model, utilizing a direct relationship between remotely sensed spectral data and soybean development stage, has been proposed. The model is based upon transforming the spectral data in Landsat bands to greenness values over time and relating the area of this curve to soybean development stage. Soybean development stages were estimated from data acquired in 1978 from research plots at the Purdue University Agronomy Farm as well as Landsat data acquired over sample areas of the U.S. Corn Belt in 1978 and 1979. Analysis of spectral data from research plots revealed that the model works well with reasonable variation in planting date, row spacing, and soil background. The R-squared of calculated U.S. observed development stage exceeded 0.91 for all treatment variables. Using Landsat data the calculated U.S. observed development stage gave an R-squared of 0.89 in 1978 and 0.87 in 1979. No difference in the models performance could be detected between early and late planted fields, small and large fields, or high and low yielding fields.
Henderson, K. E.↗