Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model Inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 739 records · Page 41

Operational, gauge-free quantum tomography

As increasingly impressive quantum information processors are realized in laboratories around the world, robust and reliable characterization of these devices is now more urgent than ever. These diagnostics can take many forms, but one of the most popular categories is tomography, where an underlying parameterized model is proposed for a device and inferred by experiments. Here, we introduce and implement efficient operational tomography, which uses experimental observables as these model parameters. This addresses a problem of ambiguity in representation that arises in current tomographic approaches (the gauge problem). Solving the gauge problem enables us to efficiently implement operational tomography in a Bayesian framework computationally, and hence gives us a natural way to include prior information and discuss uncertainty in fit parameters. We demonstrate this new tomography in a variety of different experimentally-relevant scenarios, including standard process tomography, Ramsey interferometry, randomized benchmarking, and gate set tomography.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A forward modeling approach to analyzing galaxy clustering with S IM BIG

We present cosmological constraints from a simulation-based inference (SBI) analysis of galaxy clustering from the SimBIG forward modeling framework. SimBIG leverages the predictive power of high-fidelity simulations and provides an inference framework that can extract cosmological information on small nonlinear scales. In this work, we apply SimBIG to the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) CMASS galaxy sample and analyze the power spectrum, P ℓ (k), to k max = 0.5 h/Mpc. We construct 20,000 simulated galaxy samples using our forward model, which is based on 2,000 high-resolution Quijote N -body simulations and includes detailed survey realism for a more complete treatment of observational systematics. We then conduct SBI by training normalizing flows using the simulated samples and infer the posterior distribution of ΛCDM cosmological parameters: Ω m , Ω b , h, n s , σ 8 . We derive significant constraints on Ω m and σ 8 , which are consistent with previous works. Our constraint on σ 8 is 27% more precise than standard P ℓ analyses because we exploit additional cosmological information on nonlinear scales beyond the limit of current analytic models, k > 0.25 h/Mpc. This improvement is equivalent to the statistical gain expected from a standard P ℓ analysis of galaxy sample ~ 60% larger than CMASS. While we focus on P ℓ in this work for validation and comparison to the literature, SimBIG provides a framework for analyzing galaxy clustering using any summary statistic. We expect further improvements on cosmological constraints from subsequent SimBIG analyses of summary statistics beyond P ℓ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Assessment of the Laminar Hypersonic Double-Cone Experiments in the LENS-XX Tunnel

This is an investigation on two experimental datasets of laminar hypersonic flows, over a double-cone geometry, acquired in Calspan—University at Buffalo Research Center’s Large Energy National Shock (LENS)-XX expansion tunnel. These datasets have yet to be modeled accurately. A previous paper suggested that this could partly be due to mis-specified inlet conditions. The authors of this paper solved a Bayesian inverse problem to infer the inlet conditions of the LENS-XX test section and found that in one case they lay outside the uncertainty bounds specified in the experimental dataset. However, the inference was performed using approximate surrogate models. Here in this paper, the experimental datasets are revisited and inversions for the tunnel test-section inlet conditions are performed with a Navier–Stokes simulator. The inversion is deterministic and can provide uncertainty bounds on the inlet conditions under a Gaussian assumption. It was found that deterministic inversion yields inlet conditions that do not agree with what was stated in the experiments. An a posteriori method is also presented to check the validity of the Gaussian assumption for the posterior distribution. This paper contributes to ongoing work on the assessment of datasets from challenging experiments conducted in extreme environments, where the experimental apparatus is pushed to the margins of its design and performance envelopes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Non-stationary Geostatistical Modeling: A Case Study Comparing LVA Estimation Frameworks

Incorporating locally varying anisotropy (LVA) in geostatistical modeling improves estimates for structurally complex domains where a single set of anisotropic parameters modeled globally do not account for all geological features. In this work, the properties of two LVA-geostatistical modeling frameworks are explored through application to a complexly folded gold deposit in Ghana. The inference of necessary parameters is a significant requirement of geostatistical modeling with LVA; this work focuses on the case where LVA orientations, derived from expert geological interpretation, are used to improve the grade estimates. The different methodologies for inferring the required parameters in this context are explored. The results of considering different estimation frameworks and alternate methods of parameterization are evaluated with a cross-validation study, as well as visual inspection of grade continuity along select cross sections. Results show that stationary methodologies are outperformed by all LVA techniques, even when the LVA framework has minimal guidance on parameterization. Findings also show that additional improvements are gained by considering parameter inference where the LVA orientations and point data are used to infer the local range of anisotropy. Considering LVA for geostatistical modeling of the deposit considered in this work results in better reproduction of curvilinear geological features.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Methane Production by Co-Digesting Vinasse and Whey in an AnSBBR: Effect of Mixture Ratio and Feed Strategy

The most common approach to deal with vinasse (sugarcane stillage) is fertigation, but this technique compromises soil structure and surrounding water bodies. A possible solution is to transport vinasse to local cheese whey producers and perform the co-digestion of these wastewaters together, reducing their organic load and generating bioenergy. Therefore, this study investigated the application of an AnSBBR (anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor) operated in batch and fed-batch mode, co-digesting vinasse and whey at 30 °C. The effect of influent composition and feeding strategy was assessed. In all conditions, the system achieved high organic matter removal (approximately 83%). Increasing the percentage of vinasse from 0 to 100% in the influent resulted in a decrease in methane productivity (76.3 to 51.1 molCH{sub 4} m{sup −3} day{sup −1}) and yield (12.7 to 9.1 molCH{sub 4} kgCOD{sup −1}), but fed-batch mode operation improved reactor performance (73.0 molCH{sub 4} m{sup −3} day{sup −1} and 11.5 molCH{sub 4} kgCOD{sup −1}). From the kinetic metabolic model, it was possible to infer that, at the best condition, methane is produced in a similar way from the acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic routes. A scheme of four parallel reactors with a volume of 16,950 m{sup 3} each was proposed in the scale-up estimation, with an energy recovery estimated in 28,745 MWh per month.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

TensorBNN: Bayesian inference for neural networks using TensorFlow

We report that TensorBNN is a new package based on TensorFlow that implements Bayesian inference for modern neural network models. The posterior density of neural network model parameters is represented as a point cloud sampled using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. The TensorBNN package leverages TensorFlow's architecture and its ability to use modern graphics processing units in both the training and prediction stages.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A Generation-Storage Coordination Dispatch Strategy for Power System Based on Causal Reinforcement Learning

In the backdrop of global energy transformation, power systems integrating high proportions of renewable energy sources are facing unprecedented challenges in operational stability and dispatch efficiency. To address these challenges, this study introduces a generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch strategy based on Causal Power System Dynamic Reinforcement Learning (CPSDRL). Diverging from traditional reinforcement learning approaches, CPSDRL innovatively incorporates causal inference within the state prediction model - the crux of model-based reinforcement learning - thereby establishing the Power Causal Dynamic Model (PCDM). Assisted by the prior knowledge of power systems, the model significantly enhances prediction accuracy and reliability through a two-stage training process. Utilizing PCDM, this study further applies a direct policy search algorithm to optimize the real-time dispatch strategy. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method improves the stability of generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch and exhibits competitive advantages in sample efficiency and computational speed, compared to traditional model-based and model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. This method is expected to enhance the practicality and adaptability of causal reinforcement learning techniques in power system scheduling and control.

causal reinforcement learning↗

Revealing Local Structures through Machine-Learning-Fused Multimodal Spectroscopy

Atomistic structures of materials offer valuable insights into their functionality. Determining these structures remains a fundamental challenge in materials science, especially for systems with defects. While both experimental and computational methods exist, each has limitations in resolving nanoscale structures. Core-level spectroscopies, such as X-ray absorption (XAS) or electron energy-loss spectroscopies (EELS), have been used to determine the local bonding environment and structure of materials. Recently, machine learning (ML) methods have been applied to extract structural and bonding information from XAS/EELS data. However, frameworks relying solely on a single data stream, defined as characterization data derived from a single element using one technique, are often insufficient because multiple local environments can yield similar spectral features, making it challenging to differentiate between competing structural hypotheses. Here, in this work, we address this challenge by integrating multimodal ab initio simulations, experimental data acquisition, and ML techniques for structure characterization. Our goal is to determine local structures and properties using EELS and XAS data from multiple elements and edges. To showcase our approach, we use various lithium nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) oxide compounds which are used for lithium ion batteries, including those with oxygen vacancies and antisite defects, as the sample material system. We successfully inferred local element content, ranging from lithium to transition metals, with quantitative agreement with experimental data. Beyond local element inference, we find that ML model based on multimodal spectroscopic data is able to determine whether local defects such as oxygen vacancy and antisites are present, a task which is impossible for single mode spectra or other experimental techniques. Furthermore, our framework is able to provide physical interpretability, bridging spectroscopy with the local atomic and electronic structures.

battery↗

Observation of persistent species temperature separation in inertial confinement fusion mixtures

The injection and mixing of contaminant mass into the fuel in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions is a primary factor preventing ignition. ICF experiments have recently achieved an alpha-heating regime, in which fusion self-heating is the dominant source of yield, by reducing the susceptibility of implosions to instabilities that inject this mass. We report the results of unique separated reactants implosion experiments studying pre-mixed contaminant as well as detailed high-resolution three-dimensional simulations that are in good agreement with experiments. At conditions relevant to mixing regions in high-yield implosions, we observe persistent chunks of contaminant that do not achieve thermal equilibrium with the fuel throughout the burn phase. The assumption of thermal equilibrium is made in nearly all computational ICF modeling and methods used to infer levels of contaminant from experiments. We estimate that these methods may underestimate the amount of contaminant by a factor of two or more.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quality Quandaries: Predicting a Population of Curves

We present a random effects spline regression model based on splines that provides an integrated approach for analyzing functional data, i.e., curves, when the shape of the curves is not parametrically specified. An analysis using this model is presented that makes inferences about a population of curves as well as features of the curves.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Is flat fielding safe for precision CCD astronomy?

The ambitious goals of precision cosmology with wide-field optical surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) demand precision CCD astronomy as their foundation. This in turn requires an understanding of previously uncharacterized sources of systematic error in CCD sensors, many of which manifest themselves as static effective variations in pixel area. Such variation renders a critical assumption behind the traditional procedure of flat fielding—that a sensor's pixels comprise a uniform grid—invalid. In this work, we present a method to infer a curl-free model of a sensor's underlying pixel grid from flat-field images, incorporating the superposition of all electrostatic sensor effects—both known and unknown—present in flat-field data. We use these pixel grid models to estimate the overall impact of sensor systematics on photometry, astrometry, and PSF shape measurements in a representative sensor from the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) and a prototype LSST sensor. Applying the method to DECam data recovers known significant sensor effects for which corrections are currently being developed within DES. For an LSST prototype CCD with pixel-response non-uniformity (PRNU) of 0.4%, we find the impact of "improper" flat fielding on these observables is negligible in nominal .7'' seeing conditions. Furthermore, these errors scale linearly with the PRNU, so for future LSST production sensors, which may have larger PRNU, our method provides a way to assess whether pixel-level calibration beyond flat fielding will be required.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gearing up to handle the mosaic nature of life in the quest for orthologs

The Quest for Orthologs (QfO) is an open collaboration framework for experts in comparative phylogenomics and related research areas who have an interest in highly accurate orthology predictions and their applications. We here report highlights and discussion points from the QfO meeting 2015 held in Barcelona. Achievements in recent years have established a basis to support developments for improved orthology prediction and to explore new approaches. Central to the QfO effort is proper benchmarking of methods and services, as well as design of standardized datasets and standardized formats to allow sharing and comparison of results. Simultaneously, analysis pipelines have been improved, evaluated and adapted to handle large datasets. All this would not have occurred without the long-term collaboration of Consortium members. Meeting regularly to review and coordinate complementary activities from a broad spectrum of innovative researchers clearly benefits the community. Highlights of the meeting include addressing sources of and legitimacy of disagreements between orthology calls, the context dependency of orthology definitions, special challenges encountered when analyzing very anciently rooted orthologies, orthology in the light of whole-genome duplications, and the concept of orthologous versus paralogous relationships at different levels, including domain-level orthology. Furthermore, particular needs for different applications (e.g. plant genomics, ancient gene families and others) and the infrastructure for making orthology inferences available (e.g. interfaces with model organism databases) were discussed, with several ongoing efforts that are expected to be reported on during the upcoming 2017 QfO meeting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Strained bilayer WSe 2 with reduced exciton-phonon coupling

We explore excitonic absorption and emission in bilayer WSe 2 under tensile strain. We observe a redshift of 110 meV in the energy of the A exciton absorption peak (at the direct gap at the K point in the Brillouin zone) under 2.1% uniaxial tensile strain. In addition, under the same strain, the spectral linewidth of the A exciton at room temperature decreases by a factor of 2, from 70 to 36 meV. We show that this decrease is a result of suppression of phonon-mediated exciton scattering channels. This suppression is associated with the relative upshift under strain of the Q valley in the conduction band (involved in the indirect exciton emission), which is nearly degenerate with the K valley (involved in the A exciton). We analyze the strain-dependent absorption and photoluminescence spectra to determine the relative positions of these valleys and to infer intervalley scattering rates. Our model describes well the decrease and the distinct trends in the A exciton linewidth of monolayer and bilayer WSe 2 under strain. The findings show that strain can be used to tune, as well as to probe, the relative energies of band extrema and exciton scattering channels in two-dimensional semiconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Acoustic dark energy: Potential conversion of the Hubble tension

We discuss the ability of a dark fluid becoming relevant around the time of matter radiation equality to significantly relieve the tension between local measurements of the Hubble constant and CMB inference, within the $Λ$ CDM model. We show that the gravitational impact of acoustic oscillations in the dark fluid balance the effects on the CMB and result in an improved fit to CMB measurements themselves while simultaneously raising the Hubble constant. The required balance favors a model where the fluid is a scalar field that converts its potential to kinetic energy around matter radiation equality which then quickly redshifts away. We derive the requirements on the potential for this conversion mechanism and find that a simple canonical scalar with twofree parameters for its local slope and amplitude robustly improves the fit to the combined data by $Δχ2 ≈ 12.7$ over $Λ$CDM. We uncover the CMB polarization signatures that can definitively test this scenario with future data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probing Sizes and Shapes of Nobelium Isotopes by Laser Spectroscopy

Until recently, ground-state nuclear moments of the heaviest nuclei could only be inferred from nuclear spectroscopy, where model assumptions are required. Here, laser spectroscopy in combination with modern atomic structure calculations is now able to probe these moments directly, in a comprehensive and nuclear- model-independent way. In this work, we reported on unique access to the differential mean-square charge radii of 252,253,254 No, and therefore to changes in nuclear size and shape. State-of-the-art nuclear density functional calculations describe well the changes in nuclear charge radii in the region of the heavy actinides, indicating an appreciable central depression in the deformed proton density distribution in 252,254 No isotopes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Near-Complete Haplotype-Phased Genome of the Dikaryotic Wheat Stripe Rust Fungus Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici Reveals High Interhaplotype Diversity

A long-standing biological question is how evolution has shaped the genomic architecture of dikaryotic fungi. To answer this, high-quality genomic resources that enable haplotype comparisons are essential. Short-read genome assemblies for dikaryotic fungi are highly fragmented and lack haplotype-specific information due to the high heterozygosity and repeat content of these genomes. Here, we present a diploid-aware assembly of the wheat stripe rust fungus Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici based on long reads using the FALCON-Unzip assembler. Transcriptome sequencing data sets were used to infer high-quality gene models and identify virulence genes involved in plant infection referred to as effectors. This represents the most complete Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici genome assembly to date (83 Mb, 156 contigs, N 50 of 1.5 Mb) and provides phased haplotype information for over 92% of the genome. Comparisons of the phase blocks revealed high interhaplotype diversity of over 6%. More than 25% of all genes lack a clear allelic counterpart. When we investigated genome features that potentially promote the rapid evolution of virulence, we found that candidate effector genes are spatially associated with conserved genes commonly found in basidiomycetes. Yet, candidate effectors that lack an allelic counterpart are more distant from conserved genes than allelic candidate effectors and are less likely to be evolutionarily conserved within the P. striiformis species complex and Pucciniales. In summary, this haplotype-phased assembly enabled us to discover novel genome features of a dikaryotic plant-pathogenic fungus previously hidden in collapsed and fragmented genome assemblies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bayesian Approach for Characterizing and Mitigating Gate and Measurement Errors

Various noise models have been developed in quantum computing study to describe the propagation and effect of the noise that is caused by imperfect implementation of hardware. Identifying parameters such as gate and readout error rates is critical to these models. We use a Bayesian inference approach to identify posterior distributions of these parameters such that they can be characterized more elaborately. By characterizing the device errors in this way, we can further improve the accuracy of quantum error mitigation. Experiments conducted on IBM’s quantum computing devices suggest that our approach provides better error mitigation performance than existing techniques used by the vendor. Also, our approach outperforms the standard Bayesian inference method in some scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗