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At least 739 records · Page 41

Rates of Sea‐Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks

Glacier flow plays a major role in current and future rates of globally averaged sea-level rise. The viscosity of glacial ice, controlling the rate of flow, decreases as stress increases and is highly sensitive to the value of the stress exponent, $n$, in the constitutive equation for viscous flow. Glaciologists and climate modelers almost exclusively assume $n=3$ when modeling ice flow and projecting sea-level rise through forward modeling. However, recent work suggests that $n\approx 4$ better fits observations, prompting the question: How sensitive are projections of sea-level rise to the value of $n$? We use an established community ice flow model and standard benchmark experiments designed as an idealized representation of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. While initializing an $n=3$ model to match observations of an $n=4$ ice sheet is possible, we find that incorrectly assuming $n=3$ when in fact $n=4$ dramatically underestimates rates of sea-level rise. The scale of this error grows nonlinearly with the magnitude of the climate forcing, acting to increase projection uncertainties. Additionally, we find that models often account for this stress-dependent rheology mismatch during model initialization in a way that masks this rheological effect in the short term while leaving model outputs vulnerable to larger biases in longer-term projections. Initializations to observations of Pine Island Glacier display similar rheology-mismatch fingerprints to our idealized example.

climate sensitivity↗

Modeling of transitional flows

An effort directed at developing improved transitional models was initiated. The focus of this work was concentrated on the critical assessment of a popular existing transitional model developed by McDonald and Fish in 1972. The objective of this effort was to identify the shortcomings of the McDonald-Fish model and to use the insights gained to suggest modifications or alterations of the basic model. In order to evaluate the transitional model, a compressible boundary layer code was required. Accordingly, a two-dimensional compressible boundary layer code was developed. The program was based on a three-point fully implicit finite difference algorithm where the equations were solved in an uncoupled manner with second order extrapolation used to evaluate the non-linear coefficients. Iteration was offered as an option if the extrapolation error could not be tolerated. The differencing scheme was arranged to be second order in both spatial directions on an arbitrarily stretched mesh. A variety of boundary condition options were implemented including specification of an external pressure gradient, specification of a wall temperature distribution, and specification of an external temperature distribution. Overall the results of the initial phase of this work indicate that the McDonald-Fish model does a poor job at predicting the details of the turbulent flow structure during the transition region.

Lund, Thomas S.↗

Evaluation of Strain–Life Fatigue Curve Estimation Methods and Their Application to a Direct-Quenched High-Strength Steel

Methods to estimate the strain–life curve, which were divided into three categories: simple approximations, artificial neural network-based approaches and continuum damage mechanics models, were examined, and their accuracy was assessed in strain–life evaluation of a direct-quenched high-strength steel. All the prediction methods claim to be able to perform low-cycle fatigue analysis using available or easily obtainable material properties, thus eliminating the need for costly and time-consuming fatigue tests. Simple approximations were able to estimate the strain–life curve with satisfactory accuracy using only monotonic properties. The tested neural network-based model, although yielding acceptable results for the material in question, was found to be overly sensitive to the data sets used for training and showed an inconsistency in estimation of the fatigue life and fatigue properties. The studied continuum damage-based model was able to produce a curve detecting early stages of crack initiation. This model requires more experimental data for calibration than approaches using simple approximations. As a result of the different theories underlying the analyzed methods, the different approaches have different strengths and weaknesses. However, it was found that the group of parametric equations categorized as simple approximations are the easiest for practical use, with their applicability having already been verified for a broad range of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simulink Model of a New Energy EVG-005 5kW Hydropower Turbine

Simulink model for a New Energy 5kW hydropower turbine. ADCP data ("ds_streamwise_7_13.nc") and DC voltage, DC current, and rotor rotation observed from the New Energy EVG-005 Current Energy Converter (CEC) ("electrical_7_13_10ohms.nc") were collected at the Tanana River Test Site (TRTS) near Nenana Alaska. - Data was collected on July 13th, 2023 with a constant 10 ohms resistance applied with a DC load bank. - Simulink model is meant to resemble the electrical setup at the TRTS. - Model is initialized by running the "NewEnergy_2023_10hz.m" Matlab script. Then the Simulink model ("New_Energy_Model_PMSM.slx") can be run. - Results are processed with the "NewEnergy_2023_processing.m" Matlab code. The Matlab results are also saved in the "New_Energy_7_13_model_validation_results.mat" Matlab file. This can be directly loaded into the Matlab Workspace using the "Load()" command. - The timetable variables "electrical_model_downsampled" is the model results and the "electrical_limited" is the experimental data from the TRTS.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Evaluating human performance modeling for system assessment: Promise and problems

The development and evaluation of computational human performance models is examined. An intention is to develop models which can be used to interact with system prototypes and simulations to perform system assessment. Currently LR is working on a set of models emulating cognitive, psychomotor, auditory, and visual activity for multiple operator positions of a command and control simulation system. These models, developed in conjunction with BBN Systems and Technologies, function within the simulation environment and allow for both unmanned system assessment and manned (human-in-loop) assessment of system interface and team interactions. These are relatively generic models with built-in flexibility which allows modification of some model parameters. These models have great potential for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of system design, test, and evaluation. However, the extent of the practical utility of these models is unclear. Initial verification efforts comparing model performance within the simulation to actual human operators on a similar, independent simulation have been performed and current efforts are directed at comparing human and model performance within the same simulation environment.

Patterson, Robert W.↗

Polarization and wavelength diversities of Gulf Stream fronts imaged by AIRSAR

During the 1990 Gulf Stream Experiment, NASA/JPL AIRSAR imaged the north edge of the Gulf Stream near the coast of Virginia. Simultaneous in-situ measurements of currents, temperatures, salinities, etc. were made for several crossings of the north edge by the R/V Cape Henlopen. Measurements identified two fronts with shearing and converging flows. The polarimetric SAR images from the fronts showed two bright linear features. One of them corresponds to the temperature front, which separated the warm Gulf Stream water to the south from a cool, freshwater filament to the north. The other line, located about 8 km north of the temperature front, is believed to correspond to the velocity front between the filament and the slope water. At these fronts, wave-current interactions produced narrow bands of steep and breaking waves manifesting higher radar returns in polarimetric SAR images. In general, our AIRSAR imagery shows that the signal-to-clutter ratio of radar cross sections for the temperature front is higher than that of the velocity front. In this paper, we study the polarization and wavelength diversities of radar response of these two fronts using the P-, L-, and C-Band Polarimetric SAR data. The north-south flight path of the AIRSAR crossed the temperature front several times and provided valuable data for analysis. Three individual passes are investigated. We found that for the temperature front, the cross-pol (HV) responses are much higher than co-pol responses (VV and HH), and that P-Band HV has the highest signal to clutter ratio. For the velocity front, the ratio is the strongest in P-Band VV, and it is indistinguishable for all polarizations in C-Band. The radar cross sections for all three polarization (HH, HV, and VV) and for all three bands are modelled using an ocean wave model and a composite Bragg scattering model. In our initial investigations, the theoretical model agrees qualitatively with the AIRSAR observations.

Lee, J. S.↗

Heat Transfer in a Superelliptic Transition Duct

Local heat transfer measurements were experimentally mapped using a transient liquid-crystal heat transfer technique on the surface of a circular-to-rectangular transition duct. The transition duct had a length-to-diameter ratio of 1.5 and an exit-plane aspect ratio of 3. The crosssectional geometry was defined by the equation of a superellipse. The cross-sectional area was the same at the inlet and exit but varied up to 15 percent higher through the transition. The duct was preheated to a uniform temperature (nominally 64 C) before allowing room temperature air to be suddenly drawn through it. As the surface cooled, the resulting isothermal contours on the duct surface were revealed using a surface coating of thermochromic liquid crystals that display distinctive colors at particular temperatures. A video record was made of the surface temperature and time data for all points on the duct surfaces during each test. Using this surface temperature-time data together with the temperature of the air flowing through the model and the initial temperature of the model wall, the heat transfer coefficient was calculated by employing the classic one-dimensional, semi-infinite wall heat transfer conduction model. Test results are reported for inlet diameter-based Reynolds numbers ranging from 0.4x106 to 2.4x106 and two grid-generated freestream turbulence intensities of about 1 percent, which is typical of wind tunnels, and up to 16 percent, which may be more typical of real engine conditions.

Poinsatte, Philip↗

Sonora: A New Generation Model Atmosphere Grid for Brown Dwarfs and Young Extrasolar Giant Planets

Brown dwarf and giant planet atmospheric structure and composition has been studied both by forward models and, increasingly so, by retrieval methods. While indisputably informative, retrieval methods are of greatest value when judged in the context of grid model predictions. Meanwhile retrieval models can test the assumptions inherent in the forward modeling procedure. In order to provide a new, systematic survey of brown dwarf atmospheric structure, emergent spectra, and evolution, we have constructed a new grid of brown dwarf model atmospheres. We ultimately aim for our grid to span substantial ranges of atmospheric metallilcity, C/O ratios, cloud properties, atmospheric mixing, and other parameters. Spectra predicted by our modeling grid can be compared to both observations and retrieval results to aid in the interpretation and planning of future telescopic observations. We thus present Sonora, a new generation of substellar atmosphere models, appropriate for application to studies of L, T, and Y-type brown dwarfs and young extrasolar giant planets. The models describe the expected temperature-pressure profile and emergent spectra of an atmosphere in radiative-convective equilibrium for ranges of effective temperatures and gravities encompassing 200 less than or equal to T(sub eff) less than or equal to 2400 K and 2.5 less than or equal to log g less than or equal to 5.5. In our poster we briefly describe our modeling methodology, enumerate various updates since our group's previous models, and present our initial tranche of models for cloudless, solar metallicity, and solar carbon-to-oxygen ratio, chemical equilibrium atmospheres. These models will be available online and will be updated as opacities and cloud modeling methods continue to improve.

emergent spectra↗

Creating a Voyager Thermal Model 39 Years Into the Flight Mission, Along with Model Correlation and Application

After 39 years of continuous operation in space, the output of the Voyager 1 & 2 spacecraft RTG power systems has decreased to the point where managing the power margin and maintaining thermal control has become increasingly difficult. As the total power dissipation in the bus has decreased, propellant line temperatures and margin above minimum AFTs have decreased, creating risk of the hydrazine freezing (at 1.6°C). This is further complicated by the lack of existing thermal models that can be used to assess propellant tank and line temperatures. In 2014, an effort was begun to create a Voyager spacecraft thermal model for that purpose.A steady-state Thermal Desktop model has been created from scratch over the past two years. The initial thermal model development was started by Applied Sciences Laboratory (ASL) under contract to JPL. The effort relied primarily on archived manufacturing drawings, limited documentation, interviews of senior engineers who worked on the Voyager design and implementation, and the experience of the Voyager Flight Operations team.Data from the Voyager System Thermal Vacuum tests is no longer available, making it necessary to correlate the model to more recent flight data and small in-flight tests. Correlation was achieved to within ±5°C for a hot case and a cold case (both data sets from 2014). However, the flight system has very few temperature sensors directly on propellant lines. So the task remains to determine how best to use the model, in conjunction with flight data, to make sure the Voyagers can continue to fly successfully. How does one go about creating a thermal model for a spacecraft that is already launched, has limited existing mechanical description files, no thermal model in order to do a maneuver that was never planned when the spacecraft was designed?

Ledeboer, William C.↗

Mesoscale Simulations of a Florida Sea Breeze Using the PLACE Land Surface Model Coupled to a 1.5-Order Turbulence Parameterization

A sophisticated land-surface model, PLACE, the Parameterization for Land Atmospheric Convective Exchange, has been coupled to a 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) turbulence sub-model. Both have been incorporated into the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model MM5. Such model improvements should have their greatest effect in conditions where surface contrasts dominate over dynamic processes, such as the simulation of warm-season, convective events. A validation study used the newly coupled model, MM5 TKE-PLACE, to simulate the evolution of Florida sea-breeze moist convection during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). Overall, eight simulations tested the sensitivity of the MM5 model to combinations of the new and default model physics, and initialization of soil moisture and temperature. The TKE-PLACE model produced more realistic surface sensible heat flux, lower biases for surface variables, more realistic rainfall, and cloud cover than the default model. Of the 8 simulations with different factors (i.e., model physics or initialization), TKE-PLACE compared very well when each simulation was ranked in terms of biases of the surface variables and rainfall, and percent and root mean square of cloud cover. A factor separation analysis showed that a successful simulation required the inclusion of a multi-layered, land surface soil vegetation model, realistic initial soil moisture, and higher order closure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These were needed to realistically model the effect of individual, joint, and synergistic contributions from the land surface and PBL on the CAPE sea-breeze, Lake Okeechobee lake breeze, and moist convection.

Lynn, Barry H.↗

Spatiotemporal Super-Resolution with Generative Machine Learning for Creating Renewable Energy Resource Data Under Climate Change Scenarios

As we plan for a future with higher penetrations of renewables and increasing electrification, it becomes more important to understand how the electricity grid will operate under a variety of weather events. We must also consider that the weather our future grid will experience will be different and possibly more extreme than the historical weather that we have extensive data for. We can use data from global climate models (GCMs) to help understand how our climate may change over the next several decades, but there is often a significant gap between the low-resolution GCM data and the high-resolution weather data required to study power systems under specific weather events. Therefore, our objective in this work is to develop tools that can bridge this gap by using low-resolution GCM data to create realistic high-resolution weather datasets that can be used to study renewable energy generation and electricity demand. To accomplish this objective, we have developed a set of generative machine learning models that can rapidly downscale GCM daily average output data at an approximate grid resolution of 100km to hourly data at an approximate 4 km grid resolution. The models can be used to create high resolution data from nearly any GCM included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5 or 6. Our methods include all datasets regularly used to study the integration of wind and solar power plants as well as changes in electricity demand due to heating and cooling loads. These models and datasets enable power systems modelers to study climate change-influenced weather events and their impact on the grid. We have downscaled and validated wind, solar, temperature, and humidity data with very promising results. The generative machine learning methods are computationally efficient and produce data that has similar statistical characteristics to current state-of-the-art historical datasets. We have trained initial generative models and produced an initial dataset collectively referred to as Sup3rCC: Super-Resolved Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts. The data covers a (mostly) historical period from 2015-2025 and a future period from 2050-2059. We have also taken hypothetical high-electrification load data and scaled the heating and cooling loads with respect to the 2050-2059 high-resolution Sup3rCC meteorology. The results show how future levels of renewable energy generation and electrified load may be impacted by climate change, setting the stage for capacity expansion models to consider a dynamic climate through model years.

climate change↗

Constraining the initial stages of ultrarelativistic nuclear collisions

It is frequently supposed that quark-gluon plasma created in heavy-ion collisions undergoes free streaming at early times. Here, we examine this issue based on the assumption that a universal attractor dominates the dynamics already at the earliest stages, which offers a way to connect the initial state with the start of the hydrodynamic expansion in an approximate but conceptually transparent fashion. We demonstrate that the centrality dependence of the measured particle multiplicities can be used to quantitatively constrain the pressure anisotropy and find that it strongly depends on the model of the initial energy deposition. As an illustration, we compare three initial state models and show that they predict rather different early-time values of the pressure anisotropy. This suggests that while assuming free streaming prior to hydrodynamization may be compatible with some initial state models, in general, features of the prehydrodynamic flow need to be matched with the model of the initial state.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Examples of data assimilation in mesoscale models

The keynote address was the problem of physical initialization of mesoscale models. The classic purpose of physical or diabatic initialization is to reduce or eliminate the spin-up error caused by the lack, at the initial time, of the fully developed vertical circulations required to support regions of large rainfall rates. However, even if a model has no spin-up problem, imposition of observed moisture and heating rate information during assimilation can improve quantitative precipitation forecasts, especially early in the forecast. The two key issues in physical initialization are the choice of assimilating technique and sources of hydrologic/hydrometeor data. Another example of data assimilation in mesoscale models was presented in a series of meso-beta scale model experiments with and 11 km version of the MASS model designed to investigate the sensitivity of convective initiation forced by thermally direct circulations resulting from differential surface heating to four dimensional assimilation of surface and radar data. The results of these simulations underscore the need to accurately initialize and simulate grid and sub-grid scale clouds in meso- beta scale models. The status of the application of the CSU-RAMS mesoscale model by the NOAA Forecast Systems Lab for producing real-time forecasts with 10-60 km mesh resolutions over (4000 km)(exp 2) domains for use by the aviation community was reported. Either MAPS or LAPS model data are used to initialize the RAMS model on a 12-h cycle. The use of MAPS (Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System) model was discussed. Also discussed was the mesobeta-scale data assimilation using a triply-nested nonhydrostatic version of the MM5 model.

Carr, Fred↗

Cloud-Resolved Simulations of Lightning NOx in an Observed Hector Thunderstorm

Cloud chemistry simulations are being performed for a "Hector" storm observed on 16 November 2005 during the SCOUT-03lACTIVE campaigns based in Darwin, Australia. The primary objective of these simulations is to estimate the average production of NO per lightning flash during the storm. The 3-D WRF-AqChem model is being used for these calculations. This modeling package contains the WRF nonhydrostatic cloud-resolving model, online gas- and aqueous-phase chemistry, and a lightning algorithm (Barth et al., 2007). Early morning soundings of temperature, water vapor and winds are used to initialize the model. Surface heating of the Tiwi Islands is simulated in the model to induce convection. Observations from the Egrett, Falcon, Geophysica, and Dornier aircraft in air undisturbed by the storm are used to construct composite initial condition chemical profiles. Convective transport in the model is tested using tracer species such as CO and O3. Lightning flashes observed by the LINET network are input to the model and a lightning placement scheme is used to inject the resulting NO into the simulated cloud. Various scenarios of NO production per flash are used for cloud-to-ground and intracloud flashes in a series of simulations for the storm. Resulting NO, mixing ratios from each simulation are compared with upper tropospheric anvil observations (from the Geophysica and Egrett aircraft) to determine the best fit with the mean NOx at anvil altitudes, the profile shape, and the frequency distribution of NOx values. We will compare the results for lightning NO production from this tropical thunderstorm with similar analyses conducted for several midlatitude and subtropical convective events.

Pickering, Kenneth↗

The Impact of Variable Land-Atmosphere Coupling on Convective Cloud Populations Observed During the 2016 HI-SCALE Field Campaign

We use a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model with a nested domain configuration (297 and 120 km wide) and an interactive land surface parameterization to simulate the complex population of shallow clouds observed on August 30, 2016 during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign conducted in north-central Oklahoma. Shallow convective clouds first formed over southeast Oklahoma and then spread towards the northwest into southern Kansas. By the early afternoon, the relatively uniform shallow cloud field became more complex in which some regions became nearly cloud free and in other regions larger shallow clouds developed with some transitioning to deeper, precipitating convection. We show that the model reproduces the observed heterogeneity in the cloud populations only when realistic variations in soil moisture are used to initialize the model. While more variable soil moisture and to a lesser extend cool lake temperatures drive the initial spatial heterogeneity in the cloud populations, precipitation-driven cold pools become an important factor after 1300 CST. When smoother soil moisture variations are used in the model, more uniform shallow cloud populations are predicted with far fewer clouds that transition to deeper, precipitating convection that produce cold pools. An algorithm that tracks thousands of individual cumulus show that the more realistic soil moisture distributions produces clouds that are larger and have a longer lifetime. The results suggest that shallow and deep convection parameterizations used by mesoscale models need to account for the effects of variable land-atmosphere interactions and cold pools.

Fast, Jerome D.↗

IMPLEMENTATION OF TURBULENCE MODELING FOR THE COUPLED GRIFFIN-PRONGHORN SIMULATION OF THE MOLTEN SALT FAST REACTOR FOR THE VIRTUAL TEST BED

In support of the Virtual Test Bed (VTB) repository, the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) concept is modeled using MOOSE-based tools, notably Griffin and Pronghorn, employing newly implemented initial turbulence models and standard wall functions. The models are adapted to Pronghorn’s spirit of a multidimensional coarse-mesh intermediate fidelity code. Multiphysics simulations of a 2D axisymmetric model of an MSFR are carried out to study the coupling between the different physics.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Accelerating kinetic plasma simulations with machine-learning-generated initial conditions

Computational models of plasma technologies often solve for the system operating conditions by time-stepping an initial value problem to a quasi-steady solution. However, the strongly nonlinear and multi-timescale nature of plasma dynamics often necessitate millions, or even hundreds of millions, of steps to reach convergence, reducing the effectiveness of these simulations for computer-aided engineering. We consider acceleration of kinetic plasma simulations via data-driven machine-learning-generated initial conditions, which initialize the simulations close to their final quasi-steady-state, thereby reducing the number of steps to reach convergence. Three machine-learning models are developed to predict the density and ion kinetic profiles of capacitively coupled plasma discharges relevant to the microelectronics industry. The models are trained on kinetic simulations over a range of device operating frequencies and pressures. Best performance was observed when simulations were initialized with ion kinetic profiles generated by a convolutional neural network, reducing the mean number of steps to reach convergence by 17.1× when compared to initialization with a zero-dimensional global model. We also outline a workflow for continuous data-driven model improvement and simulation speedup, with the aim of generating sufficient data for full device digital twins.

Artificial neural networks↗

'Self-consistent' production of ion conics on return current region auroral field lines - A time-dependent, semi-kinetic model

We describe initial results from a time-dependent, semi-kinetic model of plasma outflow incorporating wave-particle interactions along current-carrying auroral field lines. Electrostatic waves are generated by the current driven ion cyclotron instability (CDICI), causing perpendicular velocity diffusion of ions plus electron heating via anomalous resistivity when and where the relative drift between electrons and ions exceeds certain critical velocities. Using the local bulk parameters we calculate these critical velocities, and so are able to self-consistently switch on and off the heating of the various particle species. Due to the dependence of these critical velocities on the bulk parameters of the species the heating effects exhibit quite complex spatial and temporal variations. A wide range of ion distribution functions are observed in these simulations, including conics with energies of a few electron volts and 'ring' distributions. The rings are seen to be a natural result of transverse heating and velocity filter effects and do not require coherent acceleration processes. We also observe the formation of a density depletion in hydrogen and enhanced oxygen densities at high altitudes.

Brown, David G.↗