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DOE OSTI2024

Development of Two-Step Method for Fast Chloride MSR Neutronics

This work presents neutronics models of a small and large fast-spectrum molten chloride-salt reactor. The models are similar to designs being pursued by industry, and they may serve as generic preconceptual and simplified neutronics models that provide information for decision making in licensing-related areas. Here, the two models were created using Serpent, a Monte Carlo neutron transport code, and Moltres, a neutron diffusion core simulator tool. Specifically, this study focused on exploring the applicability of diffusion theory to fast molten salt reactor (MSR) models, the capabilities of an open-source, MSR-oriented simulation tool (Moltres), and optimal energy-group structures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Phase-field modeling of solid-state metathesis reactions with the charge neutrality constraint

In this work, we present a phase-field model that captures the evolution of ionic concentrations and phase fractions during solid-state metathesis (SSM) reactions where diffusion limits the rate of transformation. The evolution of the mole fraction of each ion is obtained via governing equations that describe the reduction of a free energy, which includes an energy landscape with local minima located at compositions corresponding to stable products. We utilized two Lagrange multipliers to impose constraints of electroneutrality as well as on the sum of mole fractions, which were then eliminated to derive set of two partial differential equations that describe the dynamics of the mole fraction evolution. From these governing equations, the expressions for effective mobilities for the cations and the anions were obtained. We first study the effect of mobilities of ions on the reaction kinetics, using a simple model considering the ions with an identical absolute value of charge numbers. The simulation results show that the overall characteristic mobility, defined as the sum of the two effective ionic mobilities, provides an excellent measure of the rate at which reaction progresses and that the ratio of the effective mobilities of the anions and the cations signifies the manner by which the reaction progresses. We then generalize the model to consider ions with different charge numbers and tuned the mobility of ions based on their diffusion coefficients reported in the literature and experimental data from a thin-film experiment for the synthesis of FeS 2 to demonstrate the capability of the model to predict the phase evolution during SSM reactions. In particular, the simulation predicts nonplanar phase evolution, which is recently observed in thin-film reactions for the synthesis of FeS 2 via transmission electron microscopy. The approach can serve as a basis for models for phase transformations in other multiphase ionic mixtures, such as in all-solid-state batteries and in ionic liquids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fire and Thermal Experiments in Support of the Model Evaluation Protocol for LNG Facility Fires

The motivation for the experiments reported here pertains to the siting of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities which requires assessing the potential adverse radiant thermal impacts of accidental fires on the public. The objective is to obtain data on jet fires, pool fires, fireballs, and concrete walls that could serve as thermal barriers for model validation. The fuels tested include ethane, ethylene, propane, and isopentane.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1973

Space shuttle thermal scale modeling application study

The critical thermal control problems and verification of thermal mathematical model results for the space shuttle concept are discussed. The use of a small scale thermal model of the space shuttle is proposed. It was determined that a one-third scale model of the space shuttle would serve as a useful tool throughout the entire thermal design and verification program. The major considerations in modeling the conduction-radiation-convection fields, the level of detail for modeling various systems, preliminary test requirements, and potential applications of the thermal scale model are summarized.

Marshall, K. N.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Multibus-based parallel processor for simulation

A Multibus-based parallel processor simulation system is described. The system is intended to serve as a vehicle for gaining hands-on experience, testing system and application software, and evaluating parallel processor performance during development of a larger system based on the horizontal/vertical-bus interprocessor communication mechanism. The prototype system consists of up to seven Intel iSBC 86/12A single-board computers which serve as processing elements, a multiple transmission controller (MTC) designed to support system operation, and an Intel Model 225 Microcomputer Development System which serves as the user interface and input/output processor. All components are interconnected by a Multibus/IEEE 796 bus. An important characteristic of the system is that it provides a mechanism for a processing element to broadcast data to other selected processing elements. This parallel transfer capability is provided through the design of the MTC and a minor modification to the iSBC 86/12A board. The operation of the MTC, the basic hardware-level operation of the system, and pertinent details about the iSBC 86/12A and the Multibus are described.

Ogrady, E. P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of the Microcalorimeter Detector for Athena/X-IFU

The X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) will be a microcalorimeter instrument on ESA’s Athena X-ray observatory, set to launch around 2037. Athena recently underwent a reformulation exercise resulting in a simplified X-IFU architecture, with a new baseline configuration featuring fewer pixels and readout channels. Newly developed transition edge sensor pixels that are slower and have reduced magnetic field sensitivity have helped enable the new instrument design whilst maintaining flagship quality science. In this paper, we report on the status and plan for continued development of the X-IFU microcalorimeter array. We describe details of the current pixel architecture and performance specifications. We will present the design of the first full scale microcalorimeter arrays that have the necessary flight like electrical and mechanical interfaces for X-IFU. These arrays will undergo testing in a focal-plane assembly (FPA) Development Model (DM) in Europe later in 2024 and serve as a precursor to the X-IFU Engineering Model detector.

Stephen J Smith↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

Overview: Small Aircraft Transportation System Airborne Remote Sensing Fuel Droplet Evaporation

The NASA Nebraska Preparation Grant was designed to solidify relationships, intensify communication, and launch collaborative initiatives among Nebraska researchers and key contacts at NASA research centers and enterprises. In doing so, Nebraska was successful in laying the groundwork for the foundation for numerous long-term, mutually beneficial collaborations that were subsequently proposed and awarded in the NASA EPSCoR 2000 competition. The NASA Nebraska EPSCoR Preparation Grant was managed by the same administrative team that oversees Nebraska's NASA Space Grant and EPSCoR programs. An advisory board (later Technical Advisory Committee) made up of voting representatives from all affiliate and partner organizations regularly reviewed grant progress and direction. The University of Nebraska at Omaha's Aviation Institute, the host institution for all three programs, provided additional administrative oversight and program evaluation through established review mechanisms. This structure has served NASA well and has been cited as a model program. The second year of preparation grant funding served as a significant opportunity for Nebraska to lay the groundwork for the continued elevation and success of its NASA EPSCoR program. In anticipation of the NASA EPSCoR 2000 grant competition, Year 2 funding enabled funded researchers to further broaden and enhance the quality and quantity of collaborations with NASA Field Centers, Codes, and Enterprises. The plan set the stage for long-term research and outreach endeavors that have contributed significantly to the achievement of NASA's strategic objectives; the state of Nebraska's economic and aerospace development efforts; and have advanced Nebraska s aeronautics research efforts to a national leadership level. The overarching goal of the NASA Nebraska EPSCoR Preparation grant was met by facilitating research endeavors among Nebraska faculty that addressed research and technology priorities of the NASA Field Centers, Codes, and Strategic Enterprises. During the first year of funding, Nebraska established open and frequent lines of communication with university affairs officers and other key personnel at all NASA Centers and Enterprises, and facilitated the development of collaborations between and among junior faculty in the state and NASA researchers. As a result, Nebraska initiated a major research cluster, the Small Aircraft Transportation System Nebraska Implementation Template.

Bowen, Brent↗

NASA NTRS2008

Model Effects on GLAS-Based Regional Estimates of Forest Biomass and Carbon

ICESat/GLAS waveform data are used to estimate biomass and carbon on a 1.27 million sq km study area. the Province of Quebec, Canada, below treeline. The same input data sets and sampling design are used in conjunction with four different predictive models to estimate total aboveground dry forest biomass and forest carbon. The four models include nonstratified and stratified versions of a multiple linear model where either biomass or (square root of) biomass serves as the dependent variable. The use of different models in Quebec introduces differences in Provincial biomass estimates of up to 0.35 Gt (range 4.942+/-0.28 Gt to 5.29+/-0.36 Gt). The results suggest that if different predictive models are used to estimate regional carbon stocks in different epochs, e.g., y2005, y2015, one might mistakenly infer an apparent aboveground carbon "change" of, in this case, 0.18 Gt, or approximately 7% of the aboveground carbon in Quebec, due solely to the use of different predictive models. These findings argue for model consistency in future, LiDAR-based carbon monitoring programs. Regional biomass estimates from the four GLAS models are compared to ground estimates derived from an extensive network of 16,814 ground plots located in southern Quebec. Stratified models proved to be more accurate and precise than either of the two nonstratified models tested.

Nelson, Ross↗

NASA NTRS1982

Application of optimal control principles to describe the supervisory control behavior of AAA crew members

Supervisory decision making and control behavior within a C(3) oriented, ground based weapon system is being studied. The program involves empirical investigation of the sequence of control strategies used during engagement of aircraft targets. An engagement is conceptually divided into several stages which include initial information processing activity, tracking, and ongoing adaptive control decisions. Following a brief description of model parameters, two experiments which served as initial investigation into the accuracy of assumptions regarding the importance of situation assessment in procedure selection are outlined. Preliminary analysis of the results upheld the validity of the assumptions regarding strategic information processing and cue-criterion relationship learning. These results indicate that this model structure should be useful in studies of supervisory decision behavior.

Hale, C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Normal modes of the world's oceans: A numerical investigation using Proudman functions

The numerical modeling of the normal modes of the global oceans is addressed. The results of such modeling could be expected to serve as a guide in the analysis of observations and measurements intended to detect these modes. The numerical computation of normal modes of the global oceans is a field in which several investigations have obtained results during the past 15 years. The results seem to be model-dependent to an unsatisfactory extent. Some modeling areas, such as higher resolution of the bathymetry, inclusion of self-attraction and loading, the role of the Arctic Ocean, and systematic testing by means of diagnostic models are addressed. The results show that the present state of the art is such that a final solution to the normal mode problem still lies in the future. The numerical experiments show where some of the difficulties are and give some insight as to how to proceed in the future.

Sanchez, Braulio V.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A newly proposed isotherm model to predict Cs exchange with crystalline silicotitanate in tank waste simulants

The Zheng Anthony Miller (ZAM) computer model, a multicomponent ion exchange model used to predict the exchange of Group I metals onto crystalline silicotitanate (CST), has historically been used to predict Cs distribution coefficients from Hanford and Savannah River Site (SRS) tank waste simulants. Comparison of experimentally determined Cs distribution coefficients from tank waste simulants with ZAM isotherm model predictions indicate overprediction of Cs and K distribution coefficients for simple and complex simulants with the engineered form of CST. Additionally, recent changes in chemical composition/manufacturing of IONSIV TM R9140-B have resulted in increased Cs capacity from high-salt, highly alkaline solutions. Here, this work served to assess different isotherm models and refine equilibrium parameters to develop a model that can be applied to Hanford and SRS tank waste Cs removal efforts. Toward this goal, the Campbell Westesen Peterson (CWP) model was developed. This model utilized the experimentally determined Cs capacity, and simplified ZAM equilibria expressions to include only the binary substitution of Cs + or K + on the Na + sites. Equilibrium constants for these equations were refined using experimentally determined distribution coefficients. Overall, the CWP model significantly improved our ability to predict both Cs and K loading capacity from complex matrices.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗

DOE OSTI2024

REopt Model Overview and Example Use Cases [Slides]

REopt(R) is a mixed-integer optimization model that minimizes the lifecycle cost of serving energy loads at a site. This work provides and introduction to the model along with its key workflow, techno-economic inputs, key outputs, and key caveats for readers to understand REopt the when, why, how of using this model. This resource also includes helpful links related to REopt model and the data sources it uses during the optimization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1978

Control of wind turbine generators connected to power systems

A unique simulation model based on a Mode-O wind turbine is developed for simulating both speed and power control. An analytical representation for a wind turbine that employs blade pitch angle feedback control is presented, and a mathematical model is formulated. For Mode-O serving as a practical case study, results of a computer simulation of the model as applied to the problems of synchronization and dynamic stability are provided. It is shown that the speed and output of a wind turbine can be satisfactorily controlled within reasonable limits by employing the existing blade pitch control system under specified conditions. For power control, an additional excitation control is required so that the terminal voltage, output power factor, and armature current can be held within narrow limits. As a result, the variation of torque angle is limited even if speed control is not implemented simultaneously with power control. Design features of the ERDA/NASA 100-kW Mode-O wind turbine are included.

Hwang, H. H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Line Rating Models and Their Potential for a Cost‐Effective Transition to Carbon‐Neutral Power Systems

Most transmission system operators (TSOs) currently use seasonally steady-state models considering limiting weather conditions that serve as reference to compute the transmission capacity of overhead power lines. The use of dynamic line rating (DLR) models can avoid the construction of new lines, market splitting, false congestions, and the degradation of lines in a cost-effective way. DLR can also be used in the long run in grid extension and new power capacity planning. In the short run, it should be used to help operate power systems with congested lines. The operation of the power systems is planned to have the market trading into account; thus, it computes transactions hours ahead of real-time operation, using power flow forecasts affected by large errors. In the near future, within a “smart grid” environment, in real-time operation conditions, TSOs should be able to rapidly compute the capacity rating of overhead lines using DLR models and the most reliable weather information, forecasts, and line measurements, avoiding the current steady-state approach that, in many circumstances, assumes ampacities above the thermal limits of the lines. Here, this work presents a review of the line rating methodologies in several European countries and the United States. Furthermore, it presents the results of pilot projects and studies considering the application of DLR in overhead power lines, obtaining significant reductions in the congestion of internal networks and cross-border transmission lines.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elemental and Isotopic Yields from T Coronae Borealis: Predictions and Uncertainties

T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) is a symbiotic recurrent nova system expected to undergo its next outburst within the next 2 yr. Recent hydrodynamic simulations have predicted the nucleosynthetic yields for both carbon–oxygen (CO) and oxygen–neon (ONe) white-dwarf models, but without accounting for thermonuclear reaction rate uncertainties. We perform detailed Monte Carlo postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations based on updated thermonuclear reaction rates and uncertainties from the 2025 evaluation. We quantify the resulting abundance uncertainties and identify the key nuclear reactions that dominate them. Our results show that both the CO and ONe nova models robustly produce characteristic CNO isotopes. More pronounced abundance differences emerge for elements with A ≥ 20. Sulfur is the most robust observational discriminator between the CO and ONe nova models, with a model-to-model difference of a factor of ≈30 and minimal sensitivity to reaction rate uncertainties. Neon, silicon, and phosphorus exhibit even larger abundance differences (factors of ≈150–250), providing strong diagnostic potential. While their predicted yields are subject to larger uncertainties, these remain smaller than the model-to-model differences, allowing these elements to serve as useful, though less precise, tracers of white-dwarf composition. Chlorine, argon, and potassium also differ between models, but the 1σ-abundance ranges for the CO and ONe models overlap, reducing their present usefulness as composition tracers. We find that only nine nuclear reactions dominate the abundance uncertainties of the most diagnostically important isotopes, and their influence is largely independent of the underlying white-dwarf composition. These results provide guidance for future experimental efforts and for interpreting ejecta compositions in the next eruption of T CrB.

Chemical Abundances↗