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At least 739 records · Page 41

A Novel use of Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo to Model Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread

In this report, we evaluate a novel method for modeling the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. In this new approach we leverage methods and algorithms developed for fully-kinetic plasma physics simulations using Particle-In-Cell (PIC) Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo (DSMC) models. This approach then leverages Sandia-unique simulation capabilities, and High-Performance Computer (HPC) resources and expertise in particle-particle interactions using stochastic processes. Our hypothesis is that this approach would provide a more efficient platform with assumptions based on physical data that would then enable the user to assess the impact of mitigation strategies and forecast different phases of infection. This work addresses key scientific questions related to the assumptions this new approach must make to model the interactions of people using algorithms typically used for modeling particle interactions in physics codes (kinetic plasma, gas dynamics). The model developed uses rational/physical inputs while also providing critical insight; the results could serve as inputs to, or alternatives for, existing models. The model work presented was developed over a four-week time frame, thus far showing promising results and many ways in which this model/approach could be improved. This work is aimed at providing a proof-of-concept for this new pandemic modeling approach, which could have an immediate impact on the COVID-19 pandemic modeling, while laying a basis to model future pandemic scenarios in a manner that is timely and efficient. Additionally, this new approach provides new visualization tools to help epidemiologists comprehend and articulate the spread of this and other pandemics as well as a more general tool to determine key parameters needed in order to better predict pandemic modeling in the future. In the report we describe our model for pandemic modeling, apply this model to COVID-19 data for New York City (NYC), assess model sensitivities to different inputs and parameters and , finally, propagate the model forward under different conditions to assess the effects of mitigation and associated timing. Finally, our approach will help understand the role of asymptomatic cases, and could be extended to elucidate the role of recovered individuals in the second round of the infection, which is currently being ignored.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Coherent states, quantum gravity, and the Born-Oppenheimer approximation. III.: Applications to loop quantum gravity

In this article, the third of three, we analyse how the Weyl quantisation for compact Lie groups presented in the second article of this series fits with the projective-phase space structure of loop quantum gravity-type models. Thus, the proposed Weyl quantisation may serve as the main mathematical tool to implement the program of space adiabatic perturbation theory in such models. As we already argued in our first article, space adiabatic perturbation theory offers an ideal framework to overcome the obstacles that hinder the direct implementation of the conventional Born-Oppenheimer approach in the canonical formulation of loop quantum gravity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Modeling of transient conduction in building envelope assemblies: A review

As buildings age, retrofits are becoming an increasingly important topic for the ever-growing and aging existing building stock. To compare designs or evaluate in-service building envelopes, thermal modeling is utilized to evaluate the thermal performance of envelope assemblies; however, it can be difficult to model the thermal performance of as-built assemblies due to degradation or missing documentation. To address this issue, inverse modeling can be applied to infer the properties of as-built envelope assemblies. This paper presents a review of the literature and published methods to model and infer the transient conductive performance of building envelopes. This review serves as a survey of existing transient conduction algorithms to evaluate performance, computational speed, and relevance for inverse modeling applications. In addition to the literature review, this work also evaluates the computational performance of the most prevalent transient conduction algorithms against the ASHRAE 1052RP toolkit to assess inverse modeling potential. This methodology serves as a foundation for future research to characterize the transient thermal performance of as-built building envelope assemblies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling the Value Recovery of Rare Earth Permanent Magnets at End-of-Life

Permanent magnets containing rare earth elements (REEs) such as Dysprosium and Neodymium offer an advantage over non-REE containing magnets (e.g. ferrite or AlNiCo) in terms of power relative to size. However, REE availability has varied significantly in recent years leading to volatility in the cost of rare earth permanent magnets (REPMs). The supply of REEs can be increased by recycling consumer products and industrial machinery that contain REPMs at product end-of-life (EOL). This paper discusses the REE recovery process for EOL products. The optimal dismantling of products is examined with an emphasis placed on obtaining used REPMs. The challenge of collecting, managing, transporting, and processing used products is addressed through the development of a cost model for REPM recovery. This model is used to investigate several EOL strategies for recovering REPMs. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the key factors that influence value recovery economics. A hard disk drive serves as a case study for model demonstration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Principles of Bayesian Ensemble Creation: Theoretical and Empirical Observations

Bayesian methods are theoretically optimal given their underlying assumptions. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is generally considered the standard model for creating ensembles of learners using Bayesian methods, but this technique is often out-performed by more ad hoc methods in empirical studies. It has been proposed that Bayesian model averaging struggles in practice because it accounts for uncertainty about which model is the data-generating model but still operates under the assumption that only one of them is. Thus, BMA is unable to enrich the hypothesis space as effectively as other ensemble creation methods, serving as a form of optimal model selection, not optimal model combination. This work provides empirical verification for this hypothesis using both synthetic and real-world data. We propose several different approaches for Bayesian model combination, and demonstrate that they overcome this problem with BMA. We empirically show that even the most simplistic of Bayesian model combination strategies can compete with the traditional ad hoc techniques of bagging, boosting and stacking, as well as significantly outperforming BMA over a wide variety of cases. We also explore the implications of this observation as it relates to the effectiveness of ensemble learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Understanding the use of message passing interface in exascale proxy applications

The Exascale Computing Project (ECP) focuses on the development of future exascale-capable applications. Most ECP applications use the message passing interface (MPI) as their parallel programming model with mini-apps serving as proxies. This paper explores the explicit usage of MPI in such ECP proxy applications. We empirically analyze 14 proxy applications from the ECP Proxy Apps Suite. We use the MPI profiling interface (PMPI) to collect MPI usage patterns in ECP proxy apps. Our analysis shows that a small subset of features from MPI is commonly used in the proxies of exascale-capable applications, even when they reference third-party libraries. Overall, this study is intended to provide a better understanding of the use of MPI in current exascale applications. The findings can help focus software investments made for exascale systems in the MPI middleware including optimization, fault-tolerance, tuning, and hardware-offload.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) tracer transport test results for CAM‐SE

The Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) provides a set of tests and procedures designed to facilitate development and intercomparison of atmospheric dynamical cores in general circulation models (GCMs). Test category 1 examines the advective transport of passive tracers by three‐dimensional prescribed wind velocity fields, on the sphere. These tests are applied to the Spectral Element (SE) dynamical core of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), the default for high‐resolution simulations in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Test case results are compared with results from the CAM‐FV (Finite Volume) and MCore models where possible. This analysis serves both to evaluate the performance of CAM‐SE's spectral‐element tracer transport routines as well as to provide a baseline for comparison with other atmospheric dynamical cores and f or future improvements to CAM‐SE itself.

Hall, David M.↗

Di-Higgs production in the 4b channel and gravitational wave complementarity

We present a complementarity study of gravitational waves and double Higgs production in the 4 b channel, exploring the gauge singlet scalar extension of the SM. This new physics extension serves as a simplified benchmark model that realizes a strongly first-order electroweak phase transition necessary to generate the observed baryon asymmetry in the universe. In calculating the signal-to-noise ratio of the gravitational waves, we incorporate the effect of the recently discovered significant suppression of the gravitational wave signals from sound waves for strong phase transitions, make sure that supercooled phase transitions do complete and adopt a bubble wall velocity that is consistent with a successful electroweak baryogenesis by solving the velocity profiles of the plasma. The high-luminosity LHC sensitivity to the singlet scalar extension of the SM is estimated using a shape-based analysis of the invariant 4 b mass distribution. We find that while the region of parameter space giving detectable gravitational waves is shrunk due to the new gravitational wave simulations, the qualitative complementary role of gravitational waves and collider searches remain unchanged.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Electrochemical Reduction Selectivity of Crotonaldehyde on Copper

Lignocellulosic waste is a potential feedstock for the generation of fuels and commodity chemicals, but existing conversion methods are too cost-intensive to be viable long-term solutions. Electrochemical reductions are promising for decentralized biomass valorization due to their modular scaling and capacity to run intermittently and without high temperatures or pressures. Using crotonaldehyde as a multi-functional model compound for the many partially unsaturated oxygenates found in processed biomass, we here demonstrate the production of butanal, butanol, butene, and butane (variously useful as commodity chemicals and major components of liquified petroleum gas) under ambient conditions by reductive bulk electrolysis with a copper mesh working electrode. We identify an optimum potential for reduced organic production under the reaction conditions and compare product distributions from reductions of intermediate species to further propose branching reaction pathways. Though butanal is typically the most abundant product from crotonaldehyde reduction, most of the butene and butane appear to result from a pathway involving initial reduction of the aldehyde group. We discuss evidence that selectivity is driven by interplay between crotonaldehyde reduction, local pH shifts due to the hydrogen evolution reaction, and changes in site reactivity and availability due to electrode fouling. This demonstration of model electrochemical biomass valorization also serves to inform further exploration into reduction of multi-functional molecules and electrochemical biomass processing in general.

biomass↗

Simultaneous Production of Triacylglycerol and High-Value Carotenoids by the Astaxanthin-Producing Oleaginous Green Microalga Chlorella zofingiensis

The production of lipids and astaxanthin, a high-value carotenoid, by Chlorella zofingiensis was investigated under different culture conditions. Comparative analysis revealed a good correlation between triacylglycerol (TAG) and astaxanthin accumulation in C. zofingiensis. Stress conditions promoted cell size and weight and induced the accumulation of neutral lipids, especially TAG and astaxanthin, with a concomitant decrease in membrane lipids. The highest contents of TAG and astaxanthin achieved were 387 and 4.89 mg g-1 dry weight, respectively. A semi-continuous culture strategy was developed to optimize the TAG and astaxanthin productivities, which reached 297 and 3.3 mg L-1 day-1, respectively. Additionally, astaxanthin accumulation was enhanced by inhibiting de novo fatty acid biosynthesis. In summary, our study represents a pioneering work of utilizing Chlorella for the integrated production of lipids and high-value products and C. zofingiensis has great potential to be a promising production strain and serve as an emerging oleaginous model alga.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Multiphysics modeling of printed surface acoustic wave thermometers

Surface acoustic wave (SAW) transducers are a class of sensors and actuators that operate on the fundamental principle of piezoelectricity. Aerosol jet printing and other additive manufacturing techniques have resulted in the low-cost fabrication of low-power and small-footprint SAW devices that are suitable for sensing in high-temperature and radioactive environments. In this work, we developed a series of temperature-dependent finite element models for a SAW transducer consisting of printed silver interdigitated transducers (IDTs) deposited onto piezoelectric lithium niobate. Modeling accuracy was evaluated experimentally from room temperature to 200 °C using an aerosol-jet-printed SAW thermometer. A time-domain study enabled visualization of the wave propagation and successfully guided the denoising of the scattering parameter measurement. Additionally, frequency-domain models using traditional modal analysis or the unique port boundary condition feature in COMSOL Multiphysics accurately predicted the temperature-driven natural frequency drift in the SAW thermometer. The finite element models developed in this study serve to facilitate the computer-aided design of future SAW transducers for applications in harsh environments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The E3 ligase for metastasis associated 1 protein, TRIM25, is targeted by microRNA-873 in hepatocellular carcinoma

Highlights: • TRIM25 degrades pro-metastatic protein in hepatocellular carcinoma MTA-1. • TRIM25 expression is downregulated in HCC by miR-873. • Decreasing miR-873 expression can decrease metastasis in xenograft models. • MiR-873 thus can serve as a marker and therapeutic target in HCC patients. Tumor metastasis accounts for 90% of all cancer-related deaths. Epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) considered to be centrally important in acquired resistance to chemotherapy and in progression of tumors to secondary organs. One of the important mediators of metastatic progression in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the metastasis associated protein 1 (MTA-1). We have earlier shown that in the context of HCC and normal liver cell lines, MTA-1 protein is actively stabilized in HCC cell lines and actively degraded in normal liver cells. We have also shown that TRIM25 is the E3 ligase that interacts with and degrades MTA-1 protein. The identity of the factor regulating expression of TRIM25 in normal liver cells and HCC is unknown. In the current work we elucidate that microRNA (miR)− 873 targets TRIM25 in HCC cells. Both metagenomic analysis and quantification of miR-873 and TRIM25 in 25 HCC patients revealed an inverse correlation between the two in HCC patients with high miR-873 and low TRIM25 expression, respectively. The expression pattern was mimicked in the normal liver cells THLE-2 and the HCC cell line, HuH6. In vitro luciferase reporter assays confirmed TRIM25 as the target of miR-873. Transient transfection of HuH6 cells with an anti-miR-873 antagomir significantly decreased both transwell motility in these cells. Furthermore, in in vivo xenograft assays treatment with anti-miR-873 antagomir significantly decreased hepatic nodules formation. Cumulatively, our data indicate that suppression of TRIM25 expression by high levels of miR-873 dictates MTA1 protein upregulation in HCC.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of Nanocrystalline Graphite from Lignin Sources

Carbon composites are attractive to a variety of high-impact applications, such as carbon fibers, batteries, and vehicle parts, due to their multifunctional properties. The properties of carbon are highly dependent on the allotrope the carbon takes and the functionality, impurities, and defects contained within the structure. The increase in demand for sustainable carbon sources in energy storage devices motivates interest in understanding synthesis parameters of lignin value-added products. Also, as the dependence on oil for fuel decreases, alternative sources for carbon in many applications will be needed. In this work, the thermochemical conversion of lignin powders from different feedstocks was evaluated via small and wide-angle X-ray scattering techniques to resolve the amorphous, disordered, and crystalline domains present in the lignin carbons. Scattering analyses indicated an evolution of hierarchical structures along with an increase in ordered domains as a function of carbonization temperature. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used to describe isotropic scattering intensity profiles at multiple length scales. The use of power law models in the mesoscopic region served as the basis to describe morphological changes related to structural features, for example, graphene stacking, degree of roughness, and surface fractals. Kraft softwood and switchgrass produced carbon powder with the most crystalline domains and the least surface roughness. Softwoods reached the highest degree of crystallinity followed by switchgrass samples and had less variability in particle sizes. These results suggest lignin carbons extracted from softwoods and switchgrass are viable substitutes for graphite. Interpretation of X-ray scattering data from lignin carbon powders elucidates feedstock- and processing-dependent morphological features across multiple length scales providing a straightforward framework to evaluate the feasibility of leveraging lignin carbons for producing tunable application-specific materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cytosine monohydrate under mechanical stress

We report nanoindentation performed with a conospherical tip on the (100) face of cytosine monohydrate (CM) revealed a highly anisotropic response over a range of loads. Post-indent atomic force microscopy images identified an asymmetric deformation response owing to the pro-chiral structure of the surface. Activation of low rugosity slip planes induces movement of π-stacks rather than their displacement along the 1-dimensional hydrogen bonded ribbon direction. Anisotropy arises because slip can only propagate to one side of the indent, as the tip itself imparts a barrier to slip on the preferred plane thereby forcing the activation of secondary slip systems and pileup. The anisotropic deformation is of interest in relation to previous work which proposed a ribbon–rotation model to account for the topotactic conversion between CM and the product of its dehydration. The asymmetry in the nanomechanical properties exhibited by CM provides further support for the rotational model put forth and also serves to underscore the inherent relationship between a hydrate's mechanical properties and its solid state dehydration mechanism.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Well-ordered monolayers of alkali-doped coronene and picene: Molecular arrangements and electronic structures

Adsorptions of alkali metals (such as K and Li) on monolayers of coronene and picene realize the formation of ordered phases, which serve as well-defined model systems for metal-intercalated aromatic superconductors. Upon alkali-doping of the monolayers of coronene and picene, scanning tunneling microscopy and X-ray absorption spectroscopy revealed the rearrangement of the entire molecular layer. The K-induced reconstruction of both monolayers resulted in the formation of a structure with a herringbone-like arrangement of molecules, suggesting the intercalation of alkali metals between molecular planes. Upon reconstruction, a shift in both the vacuum level and core levels of coronene was observed as a result of a charge transfer from alkali metals to coronene. In addition, a new density of states near the Fermi level was formed in both the doped coronene and the doped picene monolayers. This characteristic electronic feature of the ordered monolayer has been also reported in the multilayer picene films, ensuring that the present monolayer can model the properties of the metal-intercalated aromatic hydrocarbons. It is suggested that the electronic structure near the Fermi level is sensitive to the molecular arrangement, and that both the strict control and determinations of the molecular structure in the doped phase should be important for the determination of the electronic structure of these materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

39th Lauriston S. Taylor Lecture

Since the early days of the Manhattan Engineer District, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has served to advance the dosimetry models used to set protection standards for radionuclides taken into the body. Throughout the years, this effort benefited significantly from ORNL staff's active participation in national and international scientific bodies. The first such interaction was in 1946 with the National Committee on Radiation Protection (NCRP), chaired by L.S. Taylor, which led to the 1949 to 1953 series of tripartite conferences of experts from Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These conferences addressed the need for standardization of dosimetry models and led to the establishment of an anatomic and physiologic model called “Standard Man,” a precursor of the reference worker defined in Publication 23 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Standard Man was used in setting the maximum permissible concentrations in air and water published in NBS Handbook 52 and subsequent reports by NCRP and ICRP. K.Z. Morgan, then director of the Health Physics Division at ORNL, participated in the tripartite conferences and subsequently established ORNL as a modeling and computational resource for development of radiation protection standards. ORNL’s role expanded with participation in the work of the Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD) Committee of the Society of Nuclear Medicine. Results of interactions with the MIRD Committee are evident in the radiation protection guidance for internal emitters in ICRP Publication 30. The annual limit on intake and derived air concentration values tabulated in Publication 30 were computed by an ORNL-based task group of ICRP Committee 2. A few years after the appearance of Publication 30, the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident made clear the need to develop standard dosimetry models for pre-adult ages as members of the public. In the late 1980s, ICRP began an effort to extend its reference worker concept to a reference family and develop dosimetric models for application to intake of radionuclides by members of the public. However, the modeling approach underlying the ICRP Publication 30 computational framework was not amenable to age and gender considerations. With support of U.S. federal agencies, ORNL had begun efforts in the early 1980s to develop age- and gender-specific dosimetric models, including physiologically informed biokinetic models and age-specific dosimetric phantoms. ORNL’s models and methods became the starting point for the ICRP’s series of reports on dose coefficients for radionuclide intake by the public. Currently ICRP Committee 2 is overseeing development of a second generation of post-Chernobyl models and methods, with updates of Publications 30 and 68 soon to appear and new models for members of the public in preparation. The goal of this Lauriston S. Taylor Lecture is to chronicle advancements in the dosimetry of internal emitters with some discussion of models and methods but with due deference to decisions within scientific bodies and stimulated by radiological events.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Geometries of edge and mixed dislocations in bcc Fe from first principles calculations

We use density functional theory (DFT) to compute the core structures of $a_0[100](010)$ edge, $a_0[100](011)$ edge, $a_0/2[\bar{1}\bar{1}1](1\bar{1}0)$ edge, and $a_0/2[111](1\bar{1}0)$ $71^{\circ}$ mixed dislocations in body-centered cubic (bcc) Fe. The calculations are performed using flexible boundary conditions (FBC), which effectively allow the dislocations to relax as isolated defects by coupling the DFT core to an infinite harmonic lattice through the lattice Green function (LGF). We use the LGFs of the dislocated geometries in contrast to most previous FBC-based dislocation calculations that use the LGF of the bulk crystal. The dislocation LGFs account for changes in the topology of the crystal in the core as well as local strain throughout the crystal lattice. A simple bulk-like approximation for the force constants in a dislocated geometry leads to dislocation LGFs that optimize the core structures of the $a_0[100](010)$ edge, $a_0[100](011)$ edge, and $a_0/2[111](1\bar{1}0)$ $71^{\circ}$ mixed dislocations. This approximation fails for the $a_0/2[\bar{1}\bar{1}1](1\bar{1}0)$ dislocation however, so in this case we derive the LGF from more accurate force constants computed using a Gaussian approximation potential. The standard deviations of the dislocation Nye tensor distributions quantify the widths of the dislocation cores. The relaxed cores are compact, and the local magnetic moments on the Fe atoms closely follow the volumetric strain distributions in the cores. We also compute the core structures of these dislocations using eight different classical interatomic potentials, and quantify symmetry differences between the cores using the Fourier coefficients of their Nye tensor distributions. Most of the core structures computed using the classical potentials agree well with the DFT results. Furthermore the DFT core geometries provide benchmarking for classical potential studies of work-hardening, as well as substitutional and interstitial sites for computing solute-dislocation interactions that serve as inputs for mesoscale models of solute strengthening and solute diffusion near dislocations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗