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DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2025

Power Quality and Load Capacity Evaluations of an Electric Vehicle for Multi-Robot System Applications

This paper evaluates the capability of a fully electric pickup truck, using the Ford F-150 Lightning as an example, to provide power to the circuit of a multi-robot system. The case study was conducted on a simulated INL Autonomous Pit Exploration System (APES) designed for the inspection of nuclear waste tank pits. Through a series of controlled tests, the vehicle’s power delivery consistency, load-handling capability, and battery performance were assessed under various conditions. First of all, the load test demonstrated that the vehicle provided stable power with low distortion and no unexpected interruptions. Second, during the operational limit test, the 240V system sustained loads up to 7.4 kW before tripping, providing insights into its operational limits. Last but not least, during a simulated full-scale APES operation, the vehicle’s battery depleted by only 6% over an hour, indicating sufficient capacity for extended use while retaining reserve power for transportation needs. This study highlights the potential of electric vehicles as reliable power sources for field operations, contributing to the advancement of sustainable technologies by reducing reliance on traditional fossil fuel generators and promoting the integration of clean energy solutions in remote and challenging environments.

Electric vehicle↗

DOE OSTI2025

IEEE SusTech 2025 Presentation

This paper evaluates the capability of a fully electric pickup truck, using the Ford F-150 Lightning as an example, to provide power to the circuit of a multi-robot system. The case study was conducted on a simulated INL Autonomous Pit Exploration System (APES) designed for the inspection of nuclear waste tank pits. Through a series of controlled tests, the vehicle’s power delivery consistency, load-handling capability, and battery performance were assessed under various conditions. First of all, the load test demonstrated that the vehicle provided stable power with low distortion and no unexpected interruptions. Second, during the operational limit test, the 240V system sustained loads up to 7.4 kW before tripping, providing insights into its operational limits. Last but not least, during a simulated full-scale APES operation, the vehicle’s battery depleted by only 6\% over an hour, indicating sufficient capacity for extended use while retaining reserve power for transportation needs. This study highlights the potential of electric vehicles as reliable power sources for field operations, contributing to the advancement of sustainable technologies by reducing reliance on traditional fossil fuel generators and promoting the integration of clean energy solutions in remote and challenging environments.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2013

Cultural Resource Investigations for the Resumption of Transient Testing of Nuclear Fuels and Material at the Idaho National Laboratory

The U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) has a need to test nuclear fuels under conditions that subject them to short bursts of intense, high-power radiation called ‘transient testing’ in order to gain important information necessary for licensing new nuclear fuels for use in U.S. nuclear power plants, for developing information to help improve current nuclear power plant performance and sustainability, for improving the affordability of new generation reactors, for developing recyclable nuclear fuels, and for developing fuels that inhibit any repurposing into nuclear weapons. To meet this mission need, DOE is considering alternatives for re-use and modification of existing nuclear reactor facilities to support a renewed transient testing program. One alternative under consideration involves restarting the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) reactor located at the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) on the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) site in southeastern Idaho. This report summarizes cultural resource investigations conducted by the INL Cultural Resource Management Office in 2013 to support environmental review of activities associated with restarting the TREAT reactor at the INL. These investigations were completed in order to identify and assess the significance of cultural resources within areas of potential effect associated with the proposed action and determine if the TREAT alternative would affect significant cultural resources or historic properties that are eligible for nomination to the National Register of Historic Places. No archaeological resources were identified in the direct area of potential effects for the project, but four of the buildings proposed for modifications are evaluated as historic properties, potentially eligible for nomination to the National Register of Historic Places. This includes the TREAT reactor (building #), control building (building #), guardhouse (building #), and warehouse (building #). The proposed re-use of these historic properties is consistent with original missions related to nuclear reactor testing and is expected to result in no adverse effects to their historic significance. Cultural resource investigations also involved communication with representatives from the Shoshone-Bannock Tribes to characterize cultural resources of potential tribal concern. This report provides a summary of the cultural resources inventoried and assessed within the defined areas of potential effect for the resumption of transient testing at the INL. Based on these analyses, proposed activities would have no adverse effects on historic properties within the APEs that have been defined. Other archaeological resources and cultural resources of potential concern to the Shoshone-Bannock Tribes and others that are located near the APEs are also discussed with regard to potential indirect impacts. The report concludes with general recommendations for measures to reduce impacts to all identified resources.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Power Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of PV Inverter Grid Support on Hawaiian Electric Feeders

As more grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) inverters become compliant with evolving interconnections requirements, there is increased interest from utilities in understanding how to best deploy advanced grid-support functions (GSF) in the field. One efficient and cost-effective method to examine such deployment options is to leverage power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) testing methods, which combine the fidelity of hardware tests with the flexibility of computer simulation. This paper summarizes a study wherein two Hawaiian Electric feeder models were converted to real-time models using an OPAL-RT real-time digital testing platform, and integrated with models of GSF capable PV inverters based on characterization test data. The integrated model was subsequently used in PHIL testing to evaluate the effects of different fixed power factor and volt-watt control settings on voltage regulation of the selected feeders using physical inverters. Selected results are presented in this paper, and complete results of this study were provided as inputs for field deployment and technical interconnection requirements for grid-connected PV inverters on the Hawaiian Islands.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Validation with EBR-II Tests Performed During the SHRT Testing Program (Rev. 2)

The EBR-II sodium-cooled fast reactor supported a wide range of fast reactor research activities. The final fifteen years of operations at EBR-II were used for experiments and tests to demonstrate the importance of passive safety in liquid metal reactors and the capability of such systems to provide strong passive responses during off-normal conditions. The Shutdown Heat Removal Test program at EBR-II provided test data supporting the validation of computer codes for design, licensing, and operation of LMRs, among other objectives. The program included nearly sixty tests, most of which were protected and unprotected loss of flow and loss of heat sink tests run at various initial powers and flow rates. This report documents the results of modeling and simulation of tests from the Shutdown Heat Removal Test program to support validation of Argonne’s SAS4A/SASSYS-1 fast reactor safety analysis code. SHRT-17 and SHRT-6 were protected loss of flow tests where a loss of electrical power to all sodium coolant pumps was simulated to demonstrate the effectiveness of natural circulation cooling characteristics. SHRT-45R, SHRT-39, and SHRT-43R were unprotected loss of flow tests where the control rod scram function of the plant protection system was disabled to demonstrate the effectiveness of EBR-II’s passive reactivity feedbacks. BOP-301 and BOP-302R were unprotected loss of heat sink tests that demonstrated how reactivity feedback effects driven by changes to the core inlet temperature can shut down the fission process. PICT-5/6 demonstrated how core power could be increased and decreased via changes in the intermediate sodium and feedwater flow rates. This validation activity leverages modeling and simulation efforts that originated under an International Atomic Energy Agency Coordinated Research Project for benchmark analysis of the EBR-II Shutdown Heat Removal Tests. The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 models originally developed for the CRP have been modernized to utilize new code features and modeling practices. Differences between the predicted and measured test data were explored and the causes of these differences were identified as being due to modeling approximations, uncertainty in transient component behavior, and instrumentation uncertainties. Overall, it was concluded that for all tests simulated there was good agreement between the flow, power, and temperature predictions and the measured data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Molten salt to supercritical CO2 diffusion-bonded heat exchanger testing to support component certification for advanced nuclear power systems

Commercial utilization of the diffusion-bonded heat exchanger (DBHE) for high-temperature applications has prompted an ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Case development effort to employ these components in Section III (nuclear plant) applications. As part of this effort, a series of DBHE have been fabricated. These heat exchangers will be among the first printed-circuit geometries to be tested for functionality in a molten salt environment. These 15-25kW test specimens will be evaluated under steady-state conditions to compare pressure drop and terminal temperatures measurements with those predicted by existing flow and heat transfer correlations. The test units will then be subjected to thermal transients similar to those expected in Generation IV reactor systems by varying the hot and cold fluid mass flow rates and by changing inlet temperatures. Data collected from these tests will narrow the technical gaps related to two-fluid PCHE and identify special design requirements of compact heat exchangers containing primary reactor coolant. Descriptions of one of two test units and the testing plan are discussed here.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Percolation connectivity, pore size, and gas apparent permeability: Network simulations and comparison to experimental data: Connectivity, Pore Size, and Gas Permeability

We modeled single-phase gas flow through porous media using percolation networks. Gas permeability is different from liquid permeability. The latter is only related to the geometry and topology of the pore space, while the former depends on the specific gas considered and varies with gas pressure. As gas pressure decreases, four flow regimes can be distinguished as viscous flow, slip flow, transition flow, and free molecular diffusion. Here we use a published conductance model presumably capable of predicting the flow rate of an arbitrary gas through a cylindrical pipe in the four regimes. We incorporated this model into pipe network simulations. We considered 3-D simple cubic, body-centered cubic, and face-centered cubic lattices, in which we varied the pipe radius distribution and the bond coordination number. Gas flow was simulated at different gas pressures. The simulation results showed that the gas apparent permeability k app obeys an identical scaling law in all three lattices, k app ~ (z-z c ) β , where the exponent β depends on the width of the pipe radius distribution, z is the mean coordination number, and z c its critical value at the percolation threshold. Surprisingly, (z-z c ) had a very weak effect on the ratio of the apparent gas permeability to the absolute liquid permeability, k app /k abs , suggesting that the Klinkenberg gas slippage correction factor is nearly independent of connectivity. We constructed models of k app and k app /k abs based on the observed power law and tested them by comparison with published experimental data on glass beads and other materials.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Prenatal planning of placenta previa: diagnostic accuracy of a novel MRI-based prediction model for placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) and clinical outcome

Purpose: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of MRI for placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) and clinical outcome prediction in women with placenta previa, using a novel MRI-based predictive model. Methods: Thirty-eight placental MRI exams performed on a 1.5T scanner were retrospectively reviewed by two radiologists in consensus. The presence of T2 dark bands, myometrial thinning, abnormal vascularity, uterine bulging, placental heterogeneity, placental protrusion sign, placental recess, and percretism signs was scored using a 5-point scale. Pathology and clinical intrapartum findings were the standard of reference for PAS, while intrapartum/peripartum bleeding and emergency hysterectomy defined the clinical outcome. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and discriminant function analysis were performed to test the predictive power of MRI findings for both PAS and clinical outcome prediction. Results: Abnormal vascularity and percretism signs were the two most predictive MRI features of PAS. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive function was 0.833 (cutoff 0.39, 67% sensitivity, 100% specificity, p = 0.001). Percretism signs and myometrial thinning were the two most predictive MRI features of poor outcome. AUC of the predictive function was 0.971 (cutoff − 0.55, 100% sensitivity, 77% specificity, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The diagnostic accuracy of MRI, especially considering the combination of the most predictive MRI findings, is higher when the target of the prediction is the clinical outcome rather than the PAS.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2024

3D Reconstruction of a High-Energy Diffraction Microscopy Sample Using Multi-modal Serial Sectioning with High-Precision EBSD and Surface Profilometry

High-energy diffraction microscopy (HEDM) combined with in situ mechanical testing is a powerful nondestructive technique for tracking the evolving microstructure within polycrystalline materials during deformation. This technique relies on a sophisticated analysis of X-ray diffraction patterns to produce a three-dimensional reconstruction of grains and other microstructural features within the interrogated volume. However, it is known that HEDM can fail to identify certain microstructural features, particularly smaller grains or twinned regions. Characterization of the identical sample volume using high-resolution surface-specific techniques, particularly electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), can not only provide additional microstructure information about the interrogated volume but also highlight opportunities for improvement of the HEDM reconstruction algorithms. In this study, a sample fabricated from undeformed “low solvus, high refractory” nickel-based superalloy was scanned using HEDM. The volume interrogated by HEDM was then carefully characterized using a combination of surface-specific techniques, including epi-illumination optical microscopy, zero-tilt secondary and backscattered electron imaging, scanning white light interferometry, and high-precision EBSD. Custom data fusion protocols were developed to integrate and align the microstructure maps captured by these surface-specific techniques and HEDM. The raw and processed data from HEDM and serial sectioning have been made available via the Materials Data Facility (MDF) at https://doi.org/10.18126/4y0p-v604 for further investigation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Nuclide Depletion Capabilities in the Shift Monte Carlo Code

A new depletion capability has been developed in the Exnihilo radiation transport code suite. This capability enables massively parallel domain-decomposed coupling between the Shift continuous-energy Monte Carlo solver and the nuclide depletion solvers in ORIGEN to perform high-performance Monte Carlo depletion calculations. This paper describes this new depletion capability and discusses its various features, including a multi-level parallel decomposition, high-order transport-depletion coupling, and energy-integrated power renormalization. Several test problems are presented to validate the new capability against other Monte Carlo depletion codes, and the parallel performance of the new capability is analyzed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated simulation of U-10Mo monolithic fuel swelling behavior

Here, a separate computational branch has been implemented within the DART (Dispersion Analysis Research Tool) computational code to simulate the swelling behavior of U-10Mo monolithic fuel under the operating conditions of high-power research and test reactors (RTRs). The monolithic branch of the DART code implements a mechanistic rate-theory-based fission-gas-behavior model for the calculation of fission gas swelling, as well as a suite of thermal, physical, and mechanical models to take into account various processes occurring in RTR fuels during irradiation. In order to accurately simulate and eventually predict U-10Mo monolithic fuel irradiation behavior, the code uses materials properties calculated with lower length-scale computational methods, such as gas atom diffusivity and U-Mo surface energy from atomic simulations and grain-morphology-specific recrystallization kinetics (recrystallized fuel volume fractions vs. fission density) predicted using the phase-field method. The remainder of fission gas behavior parameters used in the model were calibrated with measured intergranular bubble size distributions. With this integrated simulation approach, the swelling behavior of U-10Mo monolithic fuel was simulated for various initial grain sizes at different operating conditions and compared with measured data. Furthermore, because limited experimental data exist for parameter calibration detailed sensitivity studies for the important parameters used in the fission gas behavior model were performed in order to examine their impact on both intergranular gas bubble morphology at low fission density, and on total porosity at high fission density.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Status and performance of the GlueX DIRC

In support of the future physics program at Ce+BAF, we propose a prototype positron target. The prototype target consists of a tungsten disk mounted on a water-cooled copper support structure to enhance heat removal. The primary goals of this work are to benchmark CFD simulations, ensure vacuum integrity at the 10^-6 Pa level, achieve stable target rotation up to 10 Hz, and implement efficient water-based cooling for sustained high-power operation. To manage the thermal load, the target is designed to rotate, allowing the deposited heat to spread over a larger region, and thereby reducing localized thermal stress while maintaining the maximum temperature below 1000 K. To experimentally evaluate the thermal performance and structural stability of the target, we plan to conduct high-power laser heating tests at Laser Lab 5, LERF Building, JLab. These tests will serve as a stepping-stone for the positron production target at CEBAF.

Stevens, J.R. [College of William and Mary, Willia↗

DOE OSTI2012

Characterization and validation of an in silico toxicology model to predict the mutagenic potential of drug impurities*

Control and minimization of human exposure to potential genotoxic impurities found in drug substances and products is an important part of preclinical safety assessments of new drug products. The FDA's 2008 draft guidance on genotoxic and carcinogenic impurities in drug substances and products allows use of computational quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSAR) to identify structural alerts for known and expected impurities present at levels below qualified thresholds. This study provides the information necessary to establish the practical use of a new in silico toxicology model for predicting Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of drug impurities and other chemicals. We describe the model's chemical content and toxicity fingerprint in terms of compound space, molecular and structural toxicophores, and have rigorously tested its predictive power using both cross-validation and external validation experiments, as well as case studies. Consistent with desired regulatory use, the model performs with high sensitivity (81%) and high negative predictivity (81%) based on external validation with 2368 compounds foreign to the model and having known mutagenicity. A database of drug impurities was created from proprietary FDA submissions and the public literature which found significant overlap between the structural features of drug impurities and training set chemicals in the QSAR model. Overall, the model's predictive performance was found to be acceptable for screening drug impurities for Salmonella mutagenicity. -- Highlights: ► We characterize a new in silico model to predict mutagenicity of drug impurities. ► The model predicts Salmonella mutagenicity and will be useful for safety assessment. ► We examine toxicity fingerprints and toxicophores of this Ames assay model. ► We compare these attributes to those found in drug impurities known to FDA/CDER. ► We validate the model and find it has a desired predictive performance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Assessment of Pose Prediction Accuracy in RNA–Ligand Docking

Structure-based virtual high-throughput screening is used in early-stage drug discovery. Over the years, docking protocols and scoring functions for protein–ligand complexes have evolved to improve the accuracy in the computation of binding strengths and poses. In the past decade, RNA has also emerged as a target class for new small-molecule drugs. However, most ligand docking programs have been validated and tested for proteins and not RNA. Here, we test the docking power (pose prediction accuracy) of three state-of-the-art docking protocols on 173 RNA–small molecule crystal structures. The programs are AutoDock4 (AD4) and AutoDock Vina (Vina), which were designed for protein targets, and rDock, which was designed for both protein and nucleic acid targets. AD4 performed relatively poorly. For RNA targets for which a crystal structure of a bound ligand used to limit the docking search space is available and for which the goal is to identify new molecules for the same pocket, rDock performs slightly better than Vina, with success rates of 48% and 63%, respectively. However, in the more common type of early-stage drug discovery setting, in which no structure of a ligand–target complex is known and for which a larger search space is defined, rDock performed similarly to Vina, with a low success rate of ~27%. Further, Vina was found to have bias for ligands with certain physicochemical properties, whereas rDock performs similarly for all ligand properties. Thus, for projects where no ligand–protein structure already exists, Vina and rDock are both applicable. However, the relatively poor performance of all methods relative to protein–target docking illustrates a need for further methods refinement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Attention Network Forecasts Time-to-Failure in Laboratory Shear Experiments

Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought to contain predictive information that can be used for fault failure forecasting. Here, we present a method using unsupervised classification and an attention network to forecast labquakes using AE waveform features. Our data were generated in a laboratory setting using a biaxial shearing device with granular fault gouge intended to mimic the conditions of tectonic faults. Here, we analyzed the temporal evolution of AEs generated throughout several hundred laboratory earthquake cycles. We used a Conscience Self-Organizing Map (CSOM) to perform topologically ordered vector quantization based on waveform properties. The resulting map was used to interactively cluster AEs. We examined the clusters over time to identify those with predictive ability. Finally, we used a variety of LSTM and attention-based networks to test the predictive power of the AE clusters. By tracking cumulative waveform features over the seismic cycle, the network is able to forecast the time-to-failure (TTF) of lab earthquakes. Our results show that analyzing the data to isolate predictive signals and using a more sophisticated network architecture are key to robustly forecasting labquakes. In the future, this method could be applied on tectonic faults to monitor earthquakes and augment early warning systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Stackable bipolar pouch cells with corrosion-resistant current collectors enable high-power aqueous electrochemical energy storage

A critical bottleneck in the development of aqueous electrochemical energy storage systems is the lack of viable complete cell designs. Here, we report a metal-free, bipolar pouch cell designed with carbon black/polyethylene composite film (CBPE) current collectors as a practical cell architecture. The light-weight, corrosion-resistant CBPE provides stable operation in a variety of aqueous electrolytes over a ~2.5 V potential range. Because CBPE is heat-sealable, it serves simultaneously as both the pouch cell packaging and seal in addition to its use as a current collector. Although this non-metallic composite has a low electrical conductivity relative to metal foils, current travels only a short distance in the through-plane direction of the current collector in the bipolar cell configuration. This shorter path length lowers the effective electrical resistance, making the design suitable for high-power applications. We test the cell architecture using an aqueous ZnBr 2 battery chemistry and incorporate tetrabutylammonium cations to improve the intrinsic low Coulombic efficiency and fast self-discharge of non-flow ZnBr 2 cells. These devices demonstrate a cell-level energy density of 50 W h L -1 at a 10C rate (0.5 kW L -1 ), with less than 1% capacity loss over 500 cycles. A large-area (>6 cm 2 ) 4-cell stack is built to illustrate that the pouch cells are scalable to practical dimensions and stackable without sacrificing performance. The device operates in the range of 6–7 V and has an internal self-balancing mechanism that prevents any individual cell in the stack from overcharging. The results thus demonstrate both a conceptually new cell architecture that is broadly applicable to many aqueous electrolyte chemistries and a specific high-performance example thereof.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Nickel–copper supported on a carbon black hydrogen oxidation catalyst integrated into an anion-exchange membrane fuel cell

This work introduces the first practical platinum group metal-free (PGM-free) electrocatalyst for hydrogen oxidation reaction (HOR) in alkaline membrane fuel cells (AMFC), based on nickel-rich Ni 95 Cu 5 -alloy nanoparticles supported on Ketjenblack (KB) family carbon blacks. The catalyst synthesis is scalable and results in expected true alloy of NiCu, which is thoroughly characterized by XRD, microscopy and XPS. Reactivity of the catalyst towards HOR is studied by cyclic voltammetry and explained in view of its composition and structure. This catalyst showed highest specific activity compared to previously reported NiCu electrocatalysts and was successfully integrated into an AMFC membrane electrode assembly (MEA) using commercially available state-of-the-art membrane and ionomer. Single MEA fuel cell tests have demonstrated power density of 350 mWcm -2 at 80°C, which sets a technical record for a PGM-free anode in realistic operating conditions. The MEA with NiCu/KB anode catalysts layer were evaluated by in situ nano- and operando micro-X-ray computed tomography (CT) and results suggest that the nickel state in NiCu is hydrophobic in nature, where the NiCu surface may be isostructural with β-Ni(OH) 2 . The hydrophobic nature of electrocatalyst allows for improved water distribution in MEA and overall fuel cell as observed with operando micro X-ray CT.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗