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V&V Framework

A Verification and Validation (V&V) framework is presented for the development and execution of coordinated modeling and experimental program s to assess the predictive capability of computational models of complex systems through focused, well structured, and formal processes. The elements of the framework are based on established V&V methodology developed by various organizations including the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, and the American Society of Mechanical Engineers. Four main topics are addressed: 1) Program planning based on expert elicitation of the modeling physics requirements, 2) experimental design for model assessment, 3) uncertainty quantification for experimental observations and computational model simulations, and 4) assessment of the model predictive capability. The audience for this document includes program planners, modelers, experimentalist, V &V specialist, and customers of the modeling results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Initial Demonstration of New Griffin Technologies for Simulating the Running-In Phase of Pebble Bed Reactors

Griffin is a reactor multiphysics modeling application based on MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) and specifically targeting transient modeling of advanced reactors. Griffin has been used recently to model pebble-bed reactors for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research and the Advanced Reactor Technology program. This modeling work has focused thus far on the direct calculation of equilibrium cores. This report documents an initial demonstration of a new running-in simulation capability. The new running-in capability is verified using the existing direct equilibrium core calculation capability. A simplified pebble-bed reactor model is then used to demonstrate the running-in simulation capability. This demonstration shows that Griffin is able to simulate years of operation during the running-in phase efficiently with each depletion step taking only several seconds. Two new technologies are also presented in this report which have been developed in Griffin that will be essential for improved accuracy both of the direct equilibrium core computation and the new running-in simulation capability. The first technology is an online cross section generation capability specifically targeted for pebble-bed reactors. This will improve the accuracy of the depletion calculation as the cross sections are generated at the exact core status. This also avoids the difficult step of pre-generating a separate standalone multigroup cross section set. Secondly, a newly implemented discretization for discontinuous finite element method (DFEM) SN transport in cylindrical (RZ) coordinates, which can be solved efficiently using the existing SN sweep solver, is discussed and some results are shown demonstrating the usefulness of the additional accuracy transport provides over a diffusion approximation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimization Model and Algorithm for Capacity Planning and Operation of Reliable and Carbon-neutral Power Systems with High Penetration of Renewable Generation

In this work, we propose a Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) model that optimizes both long-term capacity planning (such as the number and size of dispatchable/renewable generators, batteries, and transmission lines) and hourly operation (such as on/off schedules of dispatchable generators, power output from each generator, and power flow) to maximize power system reliability while minimizing total cost and CO2 emissions.

Cho, Seolhee↗

Simulative Prediction of Solar Illuminance and Application of the Du-Sharples Model in Estimating Adapted Daylighting Metrics for an Urban Environment

The practice of daylighting in indoor spaces can significantly reduce electricity consumption and carbon emissions, improve human productivity, and enhance mood and cognitive perception. This work discussed the recent developments in daylighting science and practice, computed the periodic variations in average diurnal daylight levels for each month, quantified in terms of global horizontal illuminance and diffuse horizontal illuminance, for Kolkata, India, a city with tropical wet and dry climate, with two empirical luminous efficacy models of estimating solar illuminance, and assessed daylighting metrics with the Du-Sharples model. A program was formulated that could compute and generate daylight data with monthly-hourly solar irradiation data and the Du-Sharples model was utilized to predict dirt-corrected daylighting metrics for three glazing transmittance values and five elemental carbon deposition levels on glazing material. The highest monthly average global horizontal illuminance is recorded in April (64.05 klx for Littlefair model and 66.82 klx for Muneer-Kinghorn model) and the highest monthly average diffuse horizontal illuminance is recorded in July (33.23 klx for Littlefair model and 30.63 klx for Muneer-Kinghorn model). Further, the computed yearly average global and diffuse horizontal illuminance levels agree well with a previous study that applied the Perez model. Yearly average horizontal work surface illuminance level remained >1.5 klx for window-towall area ratio >30 %. The approach adopted in this work and the temporal variation charts of computed exterior daylight level data may assist building service engineers, architects, and indoor lighting practitioners in making informed policy decisions at different stages of building planning.

Engineering↗

Modeling the Strategic Behavior of an Active Distribution Network in the ISO Markets

With increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs), active distribution networks (ADNs) can actively participate in the electricity markets by dispatching their DERs, which can change the existing electricity market paradigm. It is essential to investigate the strategic behaviors of ADNs and their DER dispatch when they participate in the wholesale market as price-makers. This paper proposes a bi-level optimization model to study the strategic behavior of an ADN in both energy and reserve markets. The optimal scheduling of DERs in the ADN is modeled as the upper level problem and the joint energy and reserve market-clearing of the ISO is modeled as the lower-level problem. The two-level optimization models exchange bidding information and energy/reserve prices with each other. The proposed bi-Ievel optimization problem is converted to a mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) by using Karush-Kuhn Tucker (KKT) conditions and strong duality theory. Further, the MPEC problem is reformulated as a computationally-solvable mixed integer second order cone programming (MISOCP) model. The simulation results on an illustrative case demonstrate the impact of the strategic bidding of the ADN on the day-ahead energy and reserve market prices.

Xue, Yaosuo↗

Gas Gun Model and Comparison to Experimental Performance of Pipe Guns Operating with Light Propellant Gases and Large Cryogenic Pellets

Injection of multiple large (~10 to 30 mm diameter) shattered pellets into ITER plasmas is presently part of the scheme planned to mitigate the deleterious effects of disruptions on the vessel components. To help in the design and optimize performance of the pellet injectors for this application, a model referred to as “the gas gun simulator” has been developed and benchmarked against experimental data. The computer code simulator is a Java program that models the gas-dynamics characteristics of a single-stage gas gun. Following a stepwise approach, the code utilizes a variety of input parameters to incrementally simulate and analyze the dynamics of the gun as the projectile is launched down the barrel. Using input data, the model can calculate gun performance based on physical characteristics, such as propellant-gas and fast-valve properties, barrel geometry, and pellet mass. Although the model is fundamentally generic, the present version is configured to accommodate cryogenic pellets composed of H2, D2, Ne, Ar, and mixtures of them and light propellant gases (H2, D2, and He). The pellets are solidified in situ in pipe guns that consist of stainless steel tubes and fast-acting valves that provide the propellant gas for pellet acceleration (to speeds ~200 to 700 m/s). The pellet speed is the key parameter in determining the response time of a shattered pellet system to a plasma disruption event. The calculated speeds from the code simulations of experiments were typically in excellent agreement with the measured values. With the gas gun simulator validated for many test shots and over a wide range of physical and operating parameters, it is a valuable tool for optimization of the injector design, including the fast valve design (orifice size and volume) for any operating pressure (~40 bar expected for the ITER application) and barrel length for any pellet size (mass, diameter, and length). Key design parameters and proposed values for the pellet injectors for the ITER disruption mitigation systems are discussed.

Combs, S. K.↗

Stan : A Probabilistic Programming Language

Stan is a probabilistic programming language for specifying statistical models. A Stan program imperatively defines a log probability function over parameters conditioned on specified data and constants. As of version 2.14.0, Stan provides full Bayesian inference for continuous-variable models through Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as the No-U-Turn sampler, an adaptive form of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling. Penalized maximum likelihood estimates are calculated using optimization methods such as the limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno algorithm. Stan is also a platform for computing log densities and their gradients and Hessians, which can be used in alternative algorithms such as variational Bayes, expectation propagation, and marginal inference using approximate integration. To this end, Stan is set up so that the densities, gradients, and Hessians, along with intermediate quantities of the algorithm such as acceptance probabilities, are easily accessible. Stan can also be called from the command line using the cmdstan package, through R using the rstan package, and through Python using the pystan package. All three interfaces support sampling and optimization-based inference with diagnostics and posterior analysis. rstan and pystan also provide access to log probabilities, gradients, Hessians, parameter transforms, and specialized plotting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stochastic Strategic Participation of Active Distribution Networks With High-Penetration DERs in Wholesale Electricity Markets

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs), traditional distribution networks as load-serving entities in wholesale electricity markets, now evolve towards active distribution networks (ADNs) which can proactively participate in wholesale markets by optimally controlling the DERs in their networks. A stochastic bilevel optimization model is proposed in this paper for the strategic participation of ADNs and DERs to provide energy and grid services in wholesale electricity markets. The bilevel optimization model can capture the interactions between the ADN and the wholesale energy and ancillary service markets, considering the uncertainties of DERs in the ADN. In the upper-level model, the ADN makes optimal decisions on energy and reserve bidding considering the availability, uncertainties, and flexibility of DERs. The joint energy and reserve market-clearing of the independent system operator (ISO) is modeled as the lower-level problem. Using strong duality theory and Karush-Kuhn Tucker (KKT) conditions, the proposed bilevel optimization problem is reformulated as mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) problem and further converted into a computationally-solvable mixed-integer second-order-cone programming (MISOCP) model. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and the interactions between an ADN and wholesale electricity markets.

active distribution network↗

Benders Decomposition Using Graph Modeling and Multi-Parametric Programming

Benders decomposition is a widely used method for solving large and structured optimization problems, but its performance is affected by the repeated solution of subproblems. We propose a flexible and modular algorithmic framework for accelerating Benders decomposition. Specifically, we express the problem structure by using a graph-theoretic modeling abstraction in which nodes represent optimization subproblems and edges represent connectivity between subproblems. A key innovation of our approach is that we embed multiparametric programming (mp) surrogates for node subproblems, which maps the exact analytical map of the subproblem solution space. The use of mp surrogates allows us to replace subproblem solves with fast look-ups and function evaluations for primal and dual variables during the iterative Benders process. We formally show the equivalence between classical Benders cuts and those derived from the mp solution. We implement our framework in the open-source PlasmoBenders.jl software package. To demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework, we apply it to a two-stage stochastic programming problem, which aims to make optimal capacity expansion decisions under market uncertainty. We evaluate both single-cut and multicut variants of Benders decomposition and show that the use of mp surrogates achieves substantial speedups in subproblem solve time, while preserving the convergence guarantees of Benders decomposition. We highlight advantages in solution analysis and interpretability that is enabled by mp critical region tracking; specifically, we show that these reveal how decisions evolve geometrically across the Benders search. Our results aim to demonstrate that combining surrogate modeling with graph modeling offers a promising and extensible foundation for structure-exploiting decomposition. In addition, by decomposing the problem into more tractable subproblems, the proposed approach also aims to overcome scalability issues of mp. Finally, the use of mp surrogates provides a unifying and modular optimization framework that enables the representation of heterogeneous node subproblems as modeling objects with a homogeneous structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Operations research modeling in support of the Hanford direct feed low activity waste program - 15538

Operations Research (OR) modeling is a supplemental system planning tool for the Hanford Tank Farm Contractor. OR models are designed to quantify the impact of equipment failures and other constraints on mission duration; to determine overall system performance; and to identify any potential bottleneck areas and identify any potential improvement areas. OR models are being developed to provide critical insights into the expected operational performance of current and planned facilities and to help identify any operational risks which impact performance of plant and equipment. This information is used to aid decision making on facility design and operations. A new OR model is being developed in support of the Direct Feed Low Activity Waste (DFLAW) Program and will be a valuable tool in the development of overall operational and management strategies as well as providing input to facility design. The OR model will identify predicted system availability, process bottlenecks, and key equipment influencing system performance. The OR model will also test proposed solutions to improve system availability by resolving process bottlenecks and provide this information to the design agent for incorporation into the DFLAW process design. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Monte Carlo Hauser-Feshbach computer code system to model nuclear reactions: YAHFC

A computer program framework, YAHFC, to model low-energy nuclear reactions is presented. The framework allows for reactions with incident particles ranging from protons/neutrons to alphas and is designed to address reactions that ultimately lead to the formation of compound nuclear systems that then decay statistically as outlined in concepts of Hauser and Feshbach. Additionally, instead of a reaction, it is also possible to model the decay of a nuclear system with an initial excitation and population. The code models nuclear decays with a Monte Carlo process that tracks the decay of each state. This allows for an exact representation of the spectra for all emitted particles in each of the final exit channels and the possibility of generating reaction data for simulation purposes. The program is interfaced with the optical model code system FRESCOX to calculate transmission coefficients as well as the effects of coupled channels and other direct excitations via the distorted wave Born approximation (DWBA). Modules are included to account for nuclear processes such as width corrections, pre-equilibrium emission, and fission. The program is controlled by a series of input commands and while a set of input parameters exists for each projectile and target, the input commands allow for complete control over each input parameter. Extensive data files are produced and a program is provided that converts YAHFC data files into nuclear data library entries in the generalized nuclear data structure (GNDS).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Routing Problem for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Patrolling Missions - A Progressive Hedging Algorithm

This paper presents a two-stage stochastic program to model a routing problem involving an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) in the context of patrolling missions. In particular, given a set of targets and a set of supplemental targets corresponding to each target, the first stage decisions involve finding the sequence in which the vehicle has to visit the set of targets. Upon reaching each target, the UAV collects information and if the operator of the UAV deems that the information collected is not of sufficient fidelity, then the UAV has to visit all the supplemental targets corresponding to that target to collect additional information before proceeding to visit the next target. The problem is solved using a progressive hedging algorithm and extensive computational results corroborating the effectiveness of the proposed model and the solution methodology is presented.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Exposing hidden alternative backbone conformations in X-ray crystallography using qFit

Proteins must move between different conformations of their native ensemble to perform their functions. Crystal structures obtained from high-resolution X-ray diffraction data reflect this heterogeneity as a spatial and temporal conformational average. Although movement between natively populated alternative conformations can be critical for characterizing molecular mechanisms, it is challenging to identify these conformations within electron density maps. Alternative side chain conformations are generally well separated into distinct rotameric conformations, but alternative backbone conformations can overlap at several atomic positions. Our model building program qFit uses mixed integer quadratic programming (MIQP) to evaluate an extremely large number of combinations of sidechain conformers and backbone fragments to locally explain the electron density. Here, we describe two major modeling enhancements to qFit: peptide flips and alternative glycine conformations. We find that peptide flips fall into four stereotypical clusters and are enriched in glycine residues at the n+1 position. The potential for insights uncovered by new peptide flips and glycine conformations is exemplified by HIV protease, where different inhibitors are associated with peptide flips in the “flap” regions adjacent to the inhibitor binding site. Our results paint a picture of peptide flips as conformational switches, often enabled by glycine flexibility, that result in dramatic local rearrangements. Our results furthermore demonstrate the power of large-scale computational analysis to provide new insights into conformational heterogeneity. Furthermore, improved modeling of backbone heterogeneity with high-resolution X-ray data will connect dynamics to the structure-function relationship and help drive new design strategies for inhibitors of biomedically important systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic Models for an Optimal Blending of Biomass under Cost, Quality and Uncertainty Considerations

Blending biomass materials of different physical or chemical properties provides an opportunity to passively adjust the quality of the feedstock to meet the specifications of the conversion platform. We propose a model which identifies the right mix of biomass to optimize the performance of the Thermochemical conversion process at the minimum cost. This is a chance-constraint programming (CCP) model which takes into account the stochastic nature of biomass availability and quality. The proposed CCP model takes as inputs the physical and chemical properties, and biomass availability. We use the sample average approximation (SAA) method to solve the problem. We develop a case study for South Carolina by using data provided by the Billion Ton Study. We conduct extensive numerical analysis to evaluate the quality of the solutions obtained.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Using Data-Driven Prediction of Downstream 1D River Flow to Overcome the Challenges of Hydrologic River Modeling

Methods for downstream river flow prediction can be categorized into physics-based and empirical approaches. Although based on well-studied physical relationships, physics-based models rely on numerous hydrologic variables characteristic of the specific river system that can be costly to acquire. Moreover, simulation is often computationally intensive. Conversely, empirical models require less information about the system being modeled and can capture a system’s interactions based on a smaller set of observed data. This article introduces two empirical methods to predict downstream hydraulic variables based on observed stream data: a linear programming (LP) model, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We apply both empirical models within the Colorado River system to a site located on the Green River, downstream of the Yampa River confluence and Flaming Gorge Dam, and compare it to the physics-based model Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) currently used by federal agencies. Results show that both proposed models significantly outperform the SSARR model. Moreover, the CNN model outperforms the LP model for hourly predictions whereas both perform similarly for daily predictions. Although less accurate than the CNN model at finer temporal resolution, the LP model is ideal for linear water scheduling tools.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Initial Fracture Propagation Modeling of Graphite Components with Grizzly

Graphite has historically been extensively used in power reactor cores and will be used in multiple types of advanced reactors currently under development. These graphite structural components can experience significant stresses due to nonuniform volumetric strains induced by irradiation and thermal expansion, which can lead to fracture. Robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components in nuclear reactors are important for evaluating component integrity, developing design standards, and interpreting experimental results to characterize graphite performance. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program has been developing degradation models for other structural components in nuclear reactors within the Grizzly and BlackBear codes. This report documents an effort to develop initial capabilities for modeling graphite fracture within these codes, building on prior efforts to model fracture in other materials. Major elements of this effort include developing a new system for modeling fracture nucleation and growth in two dimensions using the extended finite element method and incorporating a damage and plasticity model. These capabilities are applied here to model a representative graphite component and a splitting disc experiment used to obtain tensile strength.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of mechanistic, microstructure-informed BISON models for fission product-induced failure mechanisms in advanced nuclear fuels

The US continues to prioritize commercial deployment of advanced reactors—particularly those utilizing U-Zr metallic and TRISO particle fuels. Fission product-induced failure mechanisms for these systems include fuel–cladding chemical interaction in metallic fuel rods, which threatens cladding integrity, and Pd penetration in TRISO particles, which degrades SiC layer properties. Empirical models can be applied within the bounds of existing irradiation databases, but their utility is limited when considering new designs or investigating fundamental material behaviors. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program is therefore developing mechanistic models for these behaviors, which are expected to aid in fuel design, assist in development of failure mitigation strategies, and provide support for qualification and licensing. These efforts leverage multiscale capabilities to capture the microstructural features and processes that govern these behaviors. This talk summarizes past and ongoing efforts to develop and validate these models for the BISON fuel performance code.

FCCI↗

Development of a Fleet-Level Human Factors Engineering Program to Support the Digital Modernization of Multiple Turbine Control Systems

A number of years ago, Duke Energy and the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) entered into a collaboration to support Duke’s digital upgrade activities for the main control rooms at three of their commercial nuclear power stations. The collaboration specifically focused on the human factors engineering (HFE) aspects of Duke’s plans to upgrade the legacy turbine control systems (TCS) at their Brunswick, Robinson, and Harris plants. This TSC upgrade involved installing a common digital control system (DCS), or distributed instrumentation and control (I&C) system platform, which multiple digital plant control systems can be integrated onto as the control rooms are modernized over time. Given the breadth and depth of the scope of this upgrade, DOE researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) with expertise in human factors collaborated with Duke throughout the entire HFE life cycle to help ensure the upgrade was performed in a manner consistent with regulatory human factors review criteria, such as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) Human Factors Engineering Program Review Model (NUREG 0711, 2012). This paper describes the HFE researchers performed through the early and middle phases of these TCS upgrades. Specific HFE activities include: 1) the development of a human factors program management plan, 2) performing an operational experience review, 3) evaluating the design human system interface while it was still in the early stages of development, and 4) developing a framework to help map these HFE activities to NUREG-0711 to help understand and catalog the value of different types and phases of human performance data collection. These four HFE activities are described in more detail below.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗