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At least 739 records · Page 41

Feasibility of Applying a Human Bio-signals Monitoring to Minimize Insider Threats

With the on-going global war on terror, a potential terrorist attack on a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is getting a lot of attention. In particular, the potential threat of an insider is a major concern as it could lead to the loss of a nationally critical asset and thus deserves serious consideration. The current approach to preventing an insider threat is the Insider Mitigation Program (IMP) based on periodic self-assessment or peer and manager review of specific employees. These are potentially biased and subjective assessments and are unreliable. Also, as the approach is reactive-based, identifying a problem employee could be too late to protect NPP assets (i.e., confidential information and nuclear materials). Thus, a new approach for detecting and predicting an insider is necessary. We propose a proactive approach based on using bio-signals as an alternative. To address the vulnerability of current insider detection systems, our studies investigated the possibility of insider detection and prediction by using biosignals (electroencephalogram (EEG), electrocardiogram (ECG), and galvanic skin response (GSR)). But one main question remained in the previous studies was: Is the method using key EEG indicators specific enough to discern the difference between a normal worker's motivation level change and being ready to commit a crime? This study examined the answer to the question.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Online Molten Salt and Gas Monitoring Using Combined Spectroscopic Methods

The nonproliferation of nuclear material and the development of safeguards technologies to sample and analyze fuel salt is a challenge for molten salt reactor (MSR) developers. We seek online monitoring using combined spectroscopic methods of two distinct material phases from MSR’s. Molten salt transformed to aerosol phase allows for Light Induced Breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) without adverse splashing (ARPA-E). Vaporized used nuclear fuel through chlorine-based volatility (CBV) allows for uranium separation based on boiling point differences

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A Workflow to Optimize Fast Neutron Irradiation in A Thermal Neutron Spectrum Test Reactor Leveraging Open-Source Tools

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is one of the key nuclear engineering research and testing facilities within the US Department of Energy (DOE). The ATR is one of few high-power research reactors in the world with different application including accelerated testing of nuclear fuel, materials irradiation in a very high neutron flux environment, and medical radioisotope production [1]. Also, the ATR offers opportunities for testing fast spectrum fission and fusion reactor materials. The key challenges in this area are in further detailing and optimizing a fast spectrum environment within a thermal test reactor. This challenge involves researching, developing, and testing novel concepts for the multiplying of neutron populations into ever higher energy spectra in high flux test reactors like ATR. The main objective of this work is to investigate candidate materials for establishing a fast neutron experiment irradiation in thermal neutron spectrum test reactors which can be accomplished by filtering thermal and epithermal neutrons and boosting fast neutrons at designated irradiation positions. However, adding these filters will render the neutron spectrum and the criticality of the system. The selection of the thickness and material layers should be accomplished by developing an optimization design algorithm that is applicable for ATR to enhance the fast neutron spectrum irradiation utilizing high-fidelity Monte Carlo methods along with advanced machine learning capabilities. This paper presents workflow for design optimization to enhance fast neutron irradiation in the ATR. The workflow leverages open-source tools to develop an algorithm that is viable to ATR and can be leveraged in other reactors. The following sections discuss the development of the experiment design optimization workflow and its application to ATR irradiation positions.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Management of Risks Associated with Application of Novel Materials in Novel Operating Environments in Novel Reactor Designs

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. These challenges are discussed in the paper, and a potentially applicable modeling approach based on cumulative damage rather than failure rates is briefly illustrated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quinone-mediated electrochemical O2 reduction accessing high power density with an off-electrode heterogeneous catalyst

New methods for interconversion of electrical and chemical energy are crucial to address emerging challenges in renewable energy storage and conversion. Dissolved redox mediators provide an effective means to transport electrons (and protons) between an electrode and catalysts that are not in direct physical contact with an electrode. Mediators are widely implemented in biofuel cells, but such devices typically exhibit low power densities. Here, we report the development of a tetrasubstituted quinone mediator that exhibits excellent stability under strongly acidic conditions and supports electrochemical reduction of O2 at an off-electrode heterogeneous cobalt catalyst contained within a packed-bed reactor. Efficient oxidation of the hydroquinone by O2 in the reactor provides the basis for mediator regeneration, and an integrated “flow cathode” system supports high fuel-cell power densities. These results establish the combination of organic mediators with off-electrode heterogeneous catalysts as a versatile platform for development of new electrode-driven chemical redox transformations.

Preger, Yuliya↗

Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway Technical Program Plan

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of nuclear power plants (NPPs). As the current Light Water Reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) degradations or failures that initiate safety-significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly “over-design” portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very high degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as “safety margin.” Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated, primarily based on “engineering judgment.” The ability to better characterize (i.e., describe and quantify) safety margin is important to improved decision making about LWR design and long-term operation. A systematic approach to characterizing safety margins and the subsequent risk informed margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development (R&D) in the LWRS Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs (and concurrently support technological advances in nuclear reactor fuels and plant instrumentation and control systems), needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety, economics, and performance will become known. The purpose of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs over periods of extended plant operations. The goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method that is coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of risk-informed margin management strategies; (2) create an advanced RISMC Toolkit that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margins. The methods and tools provided by RISMC are essential to a comprehensive and integrated risk-informed margin management approach that supports effective preservation of margin for both active and passive SSCs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Catalytic Upgrading of Ethanol to C8+ Distillate Range Ethers via Guerbet Coupling and Etherification

Guerbet coupling followed by etherification is a two step process for conversion of ethanol into distillate range molecules. This involves first alcohol oligomerization, followed by acid-catalyzed dehydration. As we will show in this presentation, ethanol can be converted to higher linear and α-branched alcohols by C-C coupling reactions (ethanol oligomerization) as well as to high molecular weight esters by C-O coupling reactions with Cu/MgxAlOy (CuHT) catalysts. Alcohols may be converted to ethers via bimolecular dehydration in a subsequent step. We have identified more than 160 number of species in the products including alcohols, esters, aldehydes, ketonces, and olefins. Alcohols range from C4 to C10. Both alcohols and esters follow a Schulz-Flory chain growth model. We show the relationship between the catalyst properties (BET surface area, acid and base site count and Cu loading and synthesis method) and the performance in the reactions. We also show that physical mixtures of CuHT and HT can have similar product selectivity of low loading CuHT catalysts. The selectivity towards diesel fuel precursor compounds (hereafter ‘DFPC’) increased with conversion until reaching a plateau at high ethanol conversion (~70%). Alcohol selectivity follows a Schultz-Flory distribution at all studied conversions, and that adsorbed ethanol-derived species may undergo surface oligomerization into 1-butanol and higher alcohols before desorbing in a chain-growth mechanism. Zeolite catalysts convert the C4+ alcohols into C8+ ethers in both batch and continuous flow reactors. Selectivities of up to 80% to C8+ ethers at around 70% conversion using a single pass continuous flow system are able to be achieved. The final product feedstocks obtained from etherification have been used in technoeconomic (TEA) and lifecycle analysis (LCA), which indicate a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 50% relative to conventional diesel. These final feedstocks are undergoing engine testing to elucidate the physiochemical properties and will be compared to diesel #2 ASTM standards as a reference and will serve as a basis to improve the final bio-diesel blendstocks from etherification.

Huber, George↗

Catalytic upgrading of ethanol to C8+ distillate range ethers via Guerbet coupling and etherification

In this presentation we describe the catalytic approaches for conversion of ethanol into diesel fuel ethers. This involves first alcohol oligomerization, followed by acid-catalyzed dehydration. As we will show in this presentation, ethanol can be converted to higher linear and α-branched alcohols by C-C coupling reactions (ethanol oligomerization) as well as to high molecular weight esters by C-O coupling reactions with Cu/MgxAlOy (CuHT) catalysts. Alcohols may be converted to ethers via bimolecular dehydration in a subsequent step. We have identified more than 160 number of species in the products including alcohols, esters, aldehydes, ketones, and olefins. Alcohols range from C4 to C10. Both alcohols and esters follow a Schulz-Flory chain growth model. We show the relationship between the catalyst properties (BET surface area, acid and base site count and Cu loading and synthesis method) and the performance in the reactions. We also show that physical mixtures of CuHT and HT can have similar product selectivity of low loading CuHT catalysts. The selectivity towards diesel fuel precursor compounds (hereafter ‘DFPC’) increased with conversion until reaching a plateau at high ethanol conversion (~70%). Alcohol selectivity follows a Schultz-Flory distribution at all studied conversions, and that adsorbed ethanol-derived species may undergo surface oligomerization into 1-butanol and higher alcohols before desorbing in a chain-growth mechanism. Zeolite catalysts convert the C4+ alcohols into C8+ ethers in both batch and continuous flow reactors. Selectivities of up to 80% to C8+ ethers at around 70% conversion using a single pass continuous flow system are achieved. The final product feedstocks obtained from etherification have been used in technoeconomic (TEA) and lifecycle analysis (LCA), which indicate a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 50% relative to conventional diesel and diesel fuel prices that are lower than biodiesel. These final feedstocks are undergoing engine testing to elucidate the physiochemical properties and compare well to diesel #2 ASTM standards.

Huber, George↗

Synthesis of Hyperbranched Polymers via PET-RAFT Self-Condensing Vinyl Polymerization in a Flow Reactor

Photoinduced polymerization techniques have been used in preparing various polymeric materials as they share several advantages with thermally-triggered processes using mild conditions, low catalyst concentrations, and easy-to-perform experimental conditions. By combining photoinduced eletrotransfer reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization with self-condensing vinyl polymerization (SCVP), in this work, a series of hyperbranched polymers is prepared in a flow reactor. Considered to be an alternative powerful method in improving scalability, reliability, and efficiency, the use of a flow reactor allowed us to synthesize hyperbranched poly(poly(ethylene glycol methyl ether)acrylate) (PPEGMEA) under extremely mild conditions–room temperature, open vessel, and use of LED light and water/methanol mixed solutions. Finally, the method also demonstrates considerable controllability in molecular weight and branching density by adjusting the feeding ratio of monomer to transmer, leading to the synthesis of block copolymers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The status of the Japanese material properties handbook and the challenge to facilitate structural design criteria for DEMO in-vessel components

This work summarizes the current status of the material properties handbook for a structural design using Japanese reduced-activation ferritic/martensitic steel F82H. Specifically, the key structural parameters, e.g. time-independent/dependent design stresses and fatigue design curves, were determined by following the French structural design code RCC-MRx. Moreover, under the Japan–U.S. collaboration, tensile data were newly added to the benchmark heavy irradiation data up to 80 dpa, as critical input information in the intermediate check and review in Japan. Furthermore, the status of structural material data and the near-term and long-term issues were clarified by the evaluation using the attribute guides. In parallel, the structural design approaches, which were newly introduced and extended to cope with the structural design issues under the complex environmental conditions peculiar to the DEMO reactor, were noted with the initial R&D results. Of the many design issues, the multi-axial loading conditions due to the complexity of the DEMO reactor as well as the coolant compatibility and the irradiation effect are mentioned. For example, in the paper, multi-axial fatigue–creep testing and evaluation using the modified universal slope method and brittle/ductile fracture testing and evaluation using the local approach are explained toward DEMO.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Update on the Benchmark Analysis of the Jupiter Experiments: Plutonium Moderated by Lead

The Jupiter experiment was a series of measurements in the summer of 2017 to analyze the effects of voids in lead moderated plutonium assemblies. This experiment was part of a larger campaign that took place at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) in collaboration with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) that also investigated assemblies with differing uranium enrichments. The purpose for this campaign was to provide data useful for a potential lead-bismuth cooled accelerator driven system. This data is needed due to the low number of benchmarks involving lead. Given the wide use of lead for shielding in addition to new reactor designs, there is a need for further benchmarking that this experiment could help fulfill. In addition, adding more benchmarks to the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) is helpful for further validation of simulation methods used for criticality safety. This summary is an update on the current progress of this analysis, and all results shown are preliminary.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Advanced Fabrication Techniques of Metal Hydrides for Science and Technology Applications (Abbreviated Final Report)

Lithium Hydride (LiH) atomic properties make it an excellent candidate for thermal energy storage, hydrogen storage, and nuclear reactor technology. High Energy Density (HED) experiments on LiH at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) can also provide critical Equation of State (EOS) and Hugoniot data. Density requirements for LiH vary per application and therefore physical and structural requirements for LiH are non-uniform. Historical production of LiH relies on casting processesthat are limited by density and grain-size control, which leads to unfavorable machinable characteristics. LiH manufacturing is further hindered due to its chemical reactivity and propensity to readily react with moisture. This work aimed at exploring advanced fabrication techniques for LiH such as 1) uniaxial powder pressing methods and 2) laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing. Uniaxial powder compaction offers advantageous tailorable mechanical and physical properties via density control, and L-PBF can produce net-shaped complex parts with unique microstructure. Uniaxial pressing proved successful in readily producing LiH with density control.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Lilith: An Enduring Plutonium Critical Assembly [Slides]

A design of an enduring Pu critical assembly has been produced. This is very important to DOE/NNSA missions. This assembly would result in advances/improvements in nuclear data validation, analytical methods validation, dosimetry, reactor kinetics, materials, and more.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Prediction of Performance of a Pilot Scale Dual Fluidized Bed System for Chemical Looping with Oxygen Uncoupling

Chemical looping with oxygen uncoupling (CLOU) is a variant of chemical looping combustion that involves spontaneous release of gaseous oxygen in the fuel reactor, which enables efficient combustion of solid fuel char. The University of Utah has constructed a pilot-scale dual fluidized bed chemical looping process development unit (PDU) with a nominal thermal input of 200 kW. The CLOU oxygen carrier uses copper as the active metal, cycling between cupric (CuO) and cuprous (Cu2O) oxides. As an aid for design, troubleshooting and evaluation of the pilot system, a CFD model has been developed using CPFD Software’s Barracuda VR software. The 3D model includes both reactors, as well as loop seals and cyclone separators. Mechanisms describing CLOU reaction kinetics for cuprous oxide oxidation in the air reactor and cupric oxide reduction in the fuel reactor were adapted from previously done experimental work. Coal char kinetics were based on the carbon-hydrogen-nitrogen-oxygen-sulfur, CHNOS, method. Submodels for devolatilization, gasification, and homogenous gas-phase reactions used preexisting relationships in the literature. Results predict temperature profiles, concentration profiles, product gas composition, and CO¬2 capture efficiency. This paper presents results of a parametric study in which key operational variables were adjusted to determine the influence on simulated performance of the PDU. The adjusted variables include fuel feed rate, fuel particle size, total oxygen carrier inventory, oxygen carrier copper oxide loading, and oxygen carrier particle physical properties.

Reinking, Zachary↗

Benchmarking of Different Inverse Point Kinetics Implementations for an Autocorrected Reactimeter Algorithm

In November 2017, the Transient Reactor Test Facility returned to operation. Since that time, many transient test series have been completed; each has provided valuable data for materials performance, reactor safety that can be applied in future designs. During each experimental series, detector count rates provided important information on the core behavior during transients. However, a limitation of these data is that variations in the neutron distribution during experiments cause errors when attempting to infer reactivity evolution from detector signals. Neutron physics codes can be used to compute the flux shape variations. However, this is a poor solution when the experimental data is used to do verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) on codes. Indeed, if the output of the code is used both as a reference and to correct what the reference is compared to, the circular dependency limits the quality of the VVUQ approach. To overcome this problem, an Autocorrected Reactimeter Algorithm (ACRA) has been developed. This approach infers time-dependent reactivity evolution by testing different spatial corrections and selecting the one that minimizes reactivity variations when the core is in a frozen configuration (i.e. when there is no variation in parameters affecting reactivity). However, the scope of this method was limited to transients where there were negligible thermal feedback. Indeed, the core is never in a frozen configuration when the fuel temperature varies during the whole transient. This is our motivation for the development of an improved version of the ACRA which does not require frozen configurations

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Study on the Comparison of International WTS for Integrated Management of Radioactive Waste - 19034

Domestic radioactive waste is generated by nuclear power plants, the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute and KEPCO Nuclear Fuel Company. These nuclear energy agencies have their own waste tracking system. To track waste more efficiently, it is necessary to build an integrated tracking system from the viewpoint of the final disposer. As for the korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, the decommissioning waste due to the decommissioning of research reactors No. 1 and 2, and the low and intermediate-level radioactive waste, generated by the operation of the High Flux Advanced Neutron Application Reactor(HANARO), account for the most. The solid waste from each facility and laboratory is sorted and collected according to radiation levels and the contents. For starters, according to the contents, the waste is divided into combustible, noncombustible compressible and non-compressible waste. The combustible waste, generated by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, is treated according to the low and intermediate-level radioactive waste delivery regulation of the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission and the acceptance criteria of the disposal facility. KEPCO Nuclear Fuel Company is making the nuclear fuel used in nuclear power plants. Radioactive waste is generated in the nuclear fuel manufacturing process, and it is classified into 8 types of waste according to the solid waste management procedure. Most of the radioactive waste, generated while KEPCO Nuclear Fuel Company processes the light-water reactor and heavy-water reactor nuclear fuel, is classified as low and intermediate-level radioactive waste. The radioactive liquid waste, generated in the radiation controlled area in nuclear fuel processing facilities, is divided into low-concentration liquid waste and high-concentration liquid waste. The miscellaneous solids, generated in the Hanbit NPP of Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., are classified in consideration of the physical properties, density and amount of the waste, and substances subject to restricted disposal. This paper investigated information on the structure, functions and maintenance of the systems implemented and operated by individual countries and IAEA, and the types of managed data, and analyzed the detailed configuration of the system and the characteristics of DBMS (Data Base Management System), and discovered during the analysis process the information on the waste management in each country or institution. This paper investigated the classification standards and treatment methods according to the characteristics of the radioactive substances handled by each agency. These classification and treatment methods can be applied to the database when the radioactive waste tracking system is implemented in the future. Also, this paper analyzed the radioactive waste tracking system of each country. Most overseas waste tracking systems are configured based on the ORACLE DBMS. The ORACLE DBMS is highly secure, and can manage large-scale databases. Also, Germany's ReVK and US IWTS are using the Bar-Code system that can track and manage all waste data, generated during decommissioning or transportation, in real time, and the real-time tracking system of web-based US CID can simply create and output reports quickly. If the advantages of overseas waste tracking systems are added to the domestic integrated waste tracking system, more efficient and safer management of radioactive waste will be possible.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Transitions From Stochastic to Point Kinetics Models In Fissile Solutions

Fissile solutions form an integral part of the fuel cycle, being used to store and process both fresh fuel and waste. Fissile solutions are also found within Aqueous Homogeneous Reactors (AHRs) including research reactors such as CRAC and SILENE and also potential future systems which could be used for the production of medical isotopes. In the case of fissile solutions in the fuel cycle, avoiding criticality is a priority but accidents have occurred in which a significant number of fissions occurred. In the case of AHRs, a sustained neutron population and fission rate is desired. In both cases the ability to simulate transients where changes in reactivity cause the neutron population to increase are important. A popular method for the simulation of such transients is the point kinetic method which allows the capture of the major features of a transient at a fraction of the computational runtime and code complexity of more comprehensive modelling technologies. A limitation of the point kinetics method and other mainstream methods of predicting neutron behaviour is that they assume the neutron population is large enough that the mean behaviour will be observed. When the neutron population is low, however, the deviation around the mean behaviour is expected to be relatively large as there is an aleatoric uncertainty arising from the uncertain fate of individual neutrons. Such limitations are of particular importance when the reactivity of a system is rapidly increasing while the neutron population is low, which is often true in accident scenarios involving fissile solutions. This provides the motivation for the coupling of point kinetics and a probabilistic models of fissile solutions. This summary aims to explore some of the behaviours resulting from a low neutron population and rising reactivity using a coupled probabilistic and point kinetics model of a fissile solution. As the effects of a low neutron population are the primary concern of this summary, the point kinetics and thermal hydraulic models used will be relatively simple but these models should be sufficient to capture the most important behaviours of the system in the first minute or so of a transient. This work is an extension of the work found in [1]. In that work the methodology was applied to fast pulses produced by systems such as Godiva and its results were found to compare favourably to experimental and analytical results, such as the burst wait time, in [2]. This work focuses on the application of this methodology to a fissile solution but the method could be applied to a number of criticality safety or reactor operation scenarios through suitable modification of the point kinetics model and would produce a more accurate prediction of the peak power obtained when a system first becomes critical compared to the use of a standard point kinetics model. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Use of Monte Carlo simulation to quantify CIPS risk

Crud Induced Power Shift (CIPS), caused by the accumulation of boron compounds in corrosion product deposits on high power fuel assemblies, is an important operational issue for Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs). The Boron-induced Offset Analysis (BOA) computer code has been developed by EPRI in collaboration with Westinghouse to help utility engineers avoid onset of CIPS. The code, used with an established procedure, predicts the maximum boron mass that will be accumulated in the upcoming cycle for a given core design and plant chemistry and operating program. The calculated boron mass above a given threshold predicts the risk of CIPS to the upcoming cycle. BOA has been successful in correctly predicting the risk for onset or lack of CIPS in many cycles. However, like most codes modeling complex physical phenomena, it is subject to uncertainties in several of the inputs used to describe these phenomena. The current BOA procedure results in a single 'best estimate' prediction, which has been judged to provide engineers with a practical way to assess CIPS risk. As such, however, there is a probability that the actual plant CIPS performance may be underestimated. This paper describes a method to assess the probability (with an associated confidence level) of no CIPS, mild to moderate CIPS, or severe CIPS using BOA for a given core design. This is accomplished through the use of a Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation is applied to several plant examples, and the results are evaluated in terms of the likelihood of mild or severe CIPS. A suggested set of criteria for decision making regarding CIPS risk is presented in the conclusion. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗