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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of hybridization and forecast errors on the probabilistic capacity credit of batteries

Battery storage is increasingly identified as being among the least-cost mix of technologies in the evolving U.S. electricity mix. This study explores the marginal capacity credit of batteries using a probabilistic, reliability-based, effective firm capacity method, which we apply for multiple battery power ratings, durations, coupling types, deployment locations, and dispatch profiles within a test system that is based on the Texas Interconnection in the year 2024. We find that the capacity credits for all battery durations depend on their ability to predict the timing of reliability events. Even 1-2 h forecast errors - resulting in early or delayed battery discharging relative to the onset of a reliability event - lead pronounced capacity credit reductions, especially for 4-h duration batteries. Coupling batteries with solar mitigates the uncertainty associated with a shorter-duration battery's availability during reliability events, primarily due to the relatively high solar capacity credit in our test system. Coupled (or hybrid) system designs with oversized solar arrays, the ability to charge the coupled battery with grid energy, and larger batteries lead to the greatest capacity credit benefits of hybridization. We do not see evidence that the hybrid capacity credit exceeds the sum of the separate battery and solar capacity credits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Early Career Award: An Enabling Computational Framework for Uncertainty Assimilation and Propagation in Complex PDE Systems: Sparse and Low-rank Techniques (Final Report)

This project aims to develop a set of new theories, algorithms, and computational tools that enable ultra-scalable representation and propagation of high-dimensional uncertainties to circumvent the issue of curse-of-dimensionality. The research components are motivated by the fact that highly scalable algorithms are needed to achieve exascale performance for uncertainty quantification and predictive simulation at extreme scales. Although these developments are generic and applicable to a wide range of high-dimensional, complex, stochastic, partial-differential-equation (PDE) systems, this research effort will focus on predictive simulation of high-energy-density lithium batteries. To create knowledge about the precise failure mechanisms of these batteries and ultimately predict their performance and reliability, a truly data-driven, multi-scale, multi-physics framework is needed that allows studying (i) dominant sources of uncertainty in the governing physical models at all scales of relevance and (ii) the interface between the interchanging physics and scales. The impact of the planned mathematical and numerical advancements in prediction of high-dimensional uncertain systems will be broad across areas of engineering and science such as climate modeling, fusion energy, combustion, and nanoscience, among others.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

High pressure rinse simulations for PIP-II SRF cavities

The implementation of High Pressure Rinse (HPR) not only ensures thorough cleaning of the inner high purity niobium surface of Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) cavities but also unlocks their full potential for achieving peak performance. By effectively removing contaminants and impurities, HPR sets the stage for enhanced superconducting properties, improved energy efficiency, and superior operational stability. A simulation tool has been developed, facilitating the accurate prediction of both the quality and effectiveness of the rinsing process before its execution in the cleanroom. This tool, the focus of this paper, stands as a pivotal advancement in optimizing Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) cavity preparation. Furthermore, our paper will also present correlations with cavity cold testing results, demonstrating the practical applicability and reliability of the simulation predictions in real-world scenarios.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Results for Using Uncertainty and Out-of-distribution Detection to Identify Unreliable Predictions.

As machine learning (ML) models are deployed into an ever-diversifying set of application spaces, ranging from self-driving cars to cybersecurity to climate modeling, the need to carefully evaluate model credibility becomes increasingly important. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides important information about the ability of a learned model to make sound predictions, often with respect to individual test cases. However, most UQ methods for ML are themselves data-driven and therefore susceptible to the same knowledge gaps as the models themselves. Specifically, UQ helps to identify points near decision boundaries where the models fit the data poorly, yet predictions can score as certain for points that are under-represented by the training data and thus out-of-distribution (OOD). One method for evaluating the quality of both ML models and their associated uncertainty estimates is out-of-distribution detection (OODD). We combine OODD with UQ to provide insights into the reliability of the individual predictions made by an ML model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structure-aware Initialization via Numerical Continuation and Informed Priors

Scientific machine learning (SciML) often operates in ill-conditioned, weakly identifiable regimes due to limited data or indirect observations. In such settings, optimization and inference are highly sensitive to the starting point, making initialization--often under-reported--a consequential degree of freedom. Random initialization is not a neutral default as it induces an implicit prior over candidate solutions and can systematically bias the result, producing large run-to-run variability. Here, we formalize this view by treating initialization as a hidden confounder in SciML and develop a unifying theory for structure-aware initialization via numerical continuation, constructing warm starts from related problem instances. Across representative tasks, including physics-informed neural networks, maximum likelihood estimation, and variational inference, warm starts have been shown to consistently reduce optimization effort and improve reliability.

Data integrity↗
DOE OSTI2022

QRF4P-NRT: Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

Accurate and reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation estimation is of great importance for operational large-scale flood forecasting and drought monitoring. The state-of-the-art precipitation post-processing model is based on a deterministic approach to construct relationships between satellites estimates and ground observations. We propose a probabilistic postprocessor, the Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests (QRF4P-NRT), based on quantile modeling, yielding both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. The experimental design incorporates different solutions of near-real-time predictors to further improve the model performance. Using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals Early Run for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG-E) product as an example, we illustrate that the proposed method significantly improves the overall quality of the raw IMERG-E and is also superior to the bias-corrected product (IMERG Final Run, IMERG-F) at daily scale in a complex mountain basin. Evaluations of the corrected IMERG-E, raw IMERG-E, and IMERG-F using ground observation show that the corrected IMERG-E improves correlation coefficients (0.7), mean error (-0.14 mm/day) and root mean square error (3.3 mm/day) relative to the raw IMERG-E (0.31, -0.72 and 5.5 mm/day) and IMERG-F (0.34, -0.09 and 6.0 mm/day). The error decomposition further confirms that the QRF4P-NRT improves on the various deficiencies of the raw IMERG-E product. The ensemble assessment also demonstrates that the quantile outputs provide reliable prediction spread and sharp prediction intervals. The promising results indicate the great potential of the proposed method for probabilistic post-processing for near-real-time satellite precipitation estimates, and for further applications such as hydrological ensemble forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Prognostics and Health Management Framework for Wind

Operation and maintenance costs are a major driver for levelized cost of energy of wind power plants and can be reduced through optimized operation and maintenance practices accomplishable by various prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies. In recent years, the wind industry has become more open to adopting PHM solutions, especially those focusing on diagnostics. However, prognostics activities are, in general, still at the research and development stage. On the other hand, the industry has a request to estimate a component's remaining useful life (RUL) when it has faulted, and this is a key output of prognostics. Systematically presenting PHM technologies to the wind industry by highlighting the RUL prediction need potentially helps speed up its acceptance and provides more benefits from PHM to the industry. In this paper, we introduce a PHM for wind framework. It highlights specifics unique to wind turbines and features integration of data and physics domain information and models. The output of the framework focuses on RUL prediction. To demonstrate its application, a data domain method for wind turbine gearbox fault diagnostics is presented. It uses supervisory control and data acquisition system time series data, normalizes gearbox temperature measurements with reference to environmental temperature and turbine power, and leverages big data analytics and machine-learning techniques to make the model scalable and the diagnostics process automatic. Another physics-domain modeling method for RUL prediction of wind turbine gearbox high-speed-stage bearings failed by axial cracks is also discussed. Bearing axial cracking has been shown to be the prevalent wind turbine gearbox failure mode experienced in the field and is different from rolling contact fatigue, which is targeted during the bearing design stage. The method uses probability of failure as a component reliability assessment and RUL prediction metric, which can be expanded to other drivetrain components or failure modes. The presented PHM for wind framework is generic and applicable to both land-based and offshore wind turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Bayesian Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) plays a pivotal role in scientific machine learning, especially when surrogate models are used to approximate complex systems. Although multilayer perceptions (MLPs) are commonly employed as surrogates, they often suffer from overfitting due to their large number of parameters. Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs) offer an alternative solution with fewer parameters. However, gradient-based inference methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), may result in computational inefficiency when applied to KANs, especially for large-scale datasets, due to the high cost of back-propagation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach, combining the dropout Tikhonov ensemble Kalman inversion (DTEKI) with Chebyshev KANs. This gradient-free method effectively mitigates overfitting and enhances numerical stability. In addition, we incorporate the active subspace method to reduce the parameter-space dimensionality, allowing us to improve the accuracy of predictions and obtain more reliable uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in various test cases, including scenarios with large datasets and high noise levels. Our results show that the new method achieves comparable or better accuracy, much higher efficiency as well as stability compared to HMC, in addition to scalability. Moreover, by leveraging the low-dimensional parameter subspace, our method preserves prediction accuracy while substantially reducing further the computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Exosomes and Exosomal MicroRNAs in Prostate Cancer Radiation Therapy

Despite current risk stratification systems using traditional clinicopathologic factors, many localized and locally advanced prostate cancers fail radical treatment (ie, radical prostatectomy, radiation therapy with or without androgen deprivation therapy). Therefore, a pressing need exists for enhanced methods of disease stratification through novel prognostic and predictive tools that can reliably be applied in clinical practice. Exosomes are 50- to 150-nm small vesicles released by cancer cells that reflect the genetic and nongenetic materials of parent cancer cells. Cancer cells can contain distinct sets of microRNA profiles, the expression of which can change owing to stress such as radiation therapy. These alterations or distinctions in contents allow exosomes to be used as prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers and to monitor the treatment response. Additionally, microRNAs have been shown to influence multiple processes in prostate tumorigenesis, including cell proliferation, induction of apoptosis, migration, oncogene inhibition, and radioresistance. Thus, comparative exosomal microRNA profiling at different levels could help portray tumor aggressiveness and response to radiation therapy. Although technical challenges persist in exosome isolation and characterization, recent improvements in microRNA profiling have evolved toward in-depth analyses of the exosomal cargo and its functions. We have reviewed the role of exosomes and exosomal microRNAs in biologic processes of prostate cancer progression and radiation therapy response, with a particular focus on the development of clinical assays for treatment personalization.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Fiber optic instrumentation for nuclear fuels and materials irradiations

The ability to predict the safety and reliability of new and advanced nuclear fuels and materials requires high-fidelity measurements during instrumented irradiation experiments. Optical fiber-based sensors are promising candidates for instrumentation in high-temperature (300-1200 C. degrees) irradiation environments, provided that signal attenuation due to radiation damage and/or high-temperature operation is not prohibitively large. To determine the feasibility of using silica optical fibers in instrumented irradiation capsules, a computational model has been developed to predict broadband optical attenuation in fused silica fiber materials as a function of time, temperature, and dose. Defect concentrations are calculated using a set of 11 coupled differential equations that include neutron-induced displacement, radiation-induced bond cleavage at precursor sites, and thermally-assisted molecular diffusion and defect recombination at elevated temperatures. Defect concentrations are coupled with the known optical properties of the various defects in fused silica to predict optical attenuation. The effects of radiation-induced compaction (i.e., formation of the 'metamict' phase) on the optical attenuation are also included. Results show that elevated temperatures significantly reduce attenuation resulting from defect centers (attenuation below ∼750 nm) as well as attenuation resulting from radiation-induced compaction (attenuation above ∼800 nm). The predicted attenuation is acceptable for most fiber optic-based sensor systems with a dynamic range on the order of 20-50 dB for a reasonable length (1-2 meters) of fiber in the high-flux region. Many optical components use a wavelength of 850 nm, which lies in the low-attenuation window. An irradiation campaign has been initiated to provide temperature-dependent optical attenuation data at high dose to validate the predictive model. (author)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Based Analysis of Cell Imbalances and Aging in Lithium-Ion Battery Modules and Packs

Lithium-ion battery (LIB) packs are a key solution for grid-scale energy storage, enabling grid resilience and supporting critical infrastructure. LIB modules and packs experience current imbalances and uneven cell aging due to various design and operational factors, and require a battery management system (BMS) to continuously monitor and control. In this context, a physics-based modeling framework for LIB modules and packs (liionpack) was enhanced to identify design and control strategies that minimize current imbalance and improve module/pack operation. Simulations of an 8-cell parallel-connected module demonstrate that reducing current imbalance leads to more uniform cell aging and improved module/pack-level degradation predictions. The analysis shows that current imbalance are affected by the electrical resistances. Terminal location significantly affects imbalance, with opposite-end terminal connections at intermediate branches minimizing the imbalance, and the pack circuit construction influences the accuracy of physics-based analysis at the pack scale. This framework enables design optimization of modules and packs through a fast and easy evaluation of pack performance and aging, and supports the development of aging-informed balancing strategies compatible with BMS implementation. Thereby, offering practical pathways to improve reliability and cycle life predictions in large-scale battery energy storage systems.

Ayalasomayajula, Surya Mitra [Oak Ridge National L↗
DOE OSTI2019

Cp* Noninnocence Leads to a Remarkably Weak C–H Bond via Metallocene Protonation

Metallocenes, including their permethylated variants, are extremely important in organometallic chemistry. In particular, many are synthetically useful either as oxidants (e.g., Cp 2 Fe + ) or as reductants (e.g., Cp 2 Co, Cp* 2 Co, and Cp* 2 Cr). The latter have proven to be useful reagents in the reductive protonation of small-molecule substrates, including N 2 . As such, understanding the behavior of these metallocenes in the presence of acids is paramount. In the present study, we undertake the rigorous characterization of the protonation products of Cp* 2 Co using pulse electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) techniques at low temperature. We provide unequivocal evidence for the formation of the ring-protonated isomers Cp*(exo/endo-η 4 -C 5 Me 5 H)Co + . Variable temperature Q-band (34 GHz) pulse EPR spectroscopy, in conjunction with density functional theory (DFT) predictions, are key to reliably assigning the Cp*(exo/endo-η 4 -C 5 Me 5 H)Co + species. We also demonstrate that exo-protonation selectivity can be favored by using a bulkier acid and suggest this species is thus likely a relevant intermediate during catalytic nitrogen fixation given the bulky anilinium acids employed. Of further interest, we provide physical data to experimentally assess the C–H bond dissociation free energy (BDFE C–H ) for Cp*(exo-η 4 -C 5 Me 5 H)Co + . These experimental data support our prior DFT predictions of an exceptionally weak C–H bond (<29 kcal mol –1 ), making this system among the most reactive (with respect to C–H bond strength) to be thoroughly characterized. Furthermore, these data also point to the propensity of Cp*(exo-η 4 -C 5 Me 5 H)Co to mediate hydride (H – ) transfer. Our findings are not limited to the present protonated metallocene system. Accordingly, we outline an approach to rationalizing the reactivity of arene-protonated metal species, using decamethylnickelocene as an additional example.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Reliable and Efficient Distributed Checkpointing System for Grid Environments

In Fine-Grained Cycle Sharing (FGCS) systems, machine owners voluntarily share their unused CPU cycles with guest jobs, as long as their performance degradation is tolerable. However, unpredictable evictions of guest jobs lead to fluctuating completion times. Checkpoint-recovery is an attractive mechanism for recovering from such “failures”. Today’s FGCS systems often use expensive, high-performance dedicated checkpoint servers. However, in geographically distributed clusters, this may incur high checkpoint transfer latencies. Here we present a distributed checkpointing system called FALCON that uses available disk resources of the FGCS machines as shared checkpoint repositories. However, an unavailable storage host may lead to loss of checkpoint data. Therefore, we model the failures of a storage host and develop a prediction algorithm for choosing reliable checkpoint repositories. We experiment with FALCON in the university-wide Condor testbed at Purdue and show improved and consistent performance for guest jobs in the presence of irregular resource availability.

checkpoint↗
DOE OSTI2012

MBM fuel feeding system design and evaluation for FBG pilot plant

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A 1-5 g/s fuel feeding system for pilot scale FBG was designed, built and tested. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Multiple conveying stages improve pressure balancing, flow control and stability. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Secondary conveyor stage reduced output irregularity from 47% to 15%. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Pneumatic air sparging effective in dealing with poor flow ability of MBM powder. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Pneumatic injection port plugs with char at gasification temperature of 850 Degree-Sign C. - Abstract: A biomass fuel feeding system has been designed, constructed and evaluated for a fluidized bed gasifier (FBG) pilot plant at the University of Saskatchewan (Saskatoon, SK, Canada). The system was designed for meat and bone meal (MBM) to be injected into the gasifier at a mass flow-rate range of 1-5 g/s. The designed system consists of two stages of screw conveyors, including a metering stage which controlled the flow-rate of fuel, a rotary airlock and an injection conveyor stage, which delivered that fuel at a consistent rate to the FBG. The rotary airlock which was placed between these conveyors, proved unable to maintain a pressure seal, thus the entire conveying system was sealed and pressurized. A pneumatic injection nozzle was also fabricated, tested and fitted to the end of the injection conveyor for direct injection and dispersal into the fluidized bed. The 150 mm metering screw conveyor was shown to effectively control the mass output rate of the system, across a fuel output range of 1-25 g/s, while the addition of the 50 mm injection screw conveyor reduced the irregularity (error) of the system output rate from 47% to 15%. Although material plugging was found to be an issue in the inlet hopper to the injection conveyor, the addition of air sparging ports and a system to pulse air into those ports was found to successfully eliminate this issue. The addition of the pneumatic injection nozzle reduced the output irregularity further to 13%, with an air supply of 50 slpm as the minimum air supply to drive this injector. After commissioning of this final system to the FBG reactor, the injection nozzle was found to plug with char however, and was subsequently removed from the system. Final operation of the reactor continues satisfactorily with the two screw conveyors operating at matching pressure with the fluidized bed, with the output rate of the system estimated based on system characteristic equations, and confirmed by static weight measurements made before and after testing. The error rate by this method is reported to be approximately 10%, which is slightly better than the estimated error rate of 15% for the conveyor system. The reliability of this measurement prediction method relies upon the relative consistency of the physical properties of MBM with respect to its bulk density and feeding characteristics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Perspectives on Machine Learning-assisted Plasma Medicine: Towards Automated Plasma Treatment

Cold atmospheric plasmas (CAPs) have shown great promise for medical applications through their synergistic chemical, electrical, and thermal effects, which can induce therapeutic outcomes. However, safe and reproducible plasma treatment of complex biological surfaces poses a major hurdle to the widespread adoption of CAPs for medical applications. Predictive modeling of the mutual interactions between the plasma and biological surfaces and, thus, systematic approaches to quantify and predict plasma treatment outcomes remain largely elusive due to the lack of mechanistic understanding of plasma-surface interactions that can span across vastly different length-and time-scales. In addition, real-time sensing capabilities in biomedical CAP devices are often limited, which can be detrimental to plasma treatment due to the intrinsic plasma and surface variability during the treatment, as well as sensitivity to external perturbations. All of these challenges can make reproducible and effective plasma treatment of biological surfaces difficult to realize, which is further compounded by errors due to human operation of hand-held CAP devices. Machine learning and data-driven approaches can be particularly useful in addressing these challenges in three major ways: (i) data-driven modeling of hard-to-model plasma-surface interactions and plasma treatment outcomes; (ii) learning data analytics for plasma and surface diagnostics in real-time; and (iii) developing predictive controllers that enable reliable and effective CAP treatments. Furthermore, this paper discusses the promise of machine learning to accelerate plasma medicine research in these areas, toward machine learning-assisted and automated CAP treatment of complex biological surfaces.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A promising intersection of excited‐state‐specific methods from quantum chemistry and quantum Monte Carlo

Abstract We present a discussion of recent progress in excited‐state‐specific quantum chemistry and quantum Monte Carlo alongside a demonstration of how a combination of methods from these two fields can offer reliably accurate excited state predictions across singly excited, doubly excited, and charge transfer states. Both of these fields have seen important advances supporting excited state simulation in recent years, including the introduction of more effective excited‐state‐specific optimization methods, improved handling of complicated wave function forms, and ways of explicitly balancing the quality of wave functions for ground and excited states. To emphasize the promise that exists at this intersection, we provide demonstrations using a combination of excited‐state‐specific complete active space self‐consistent field theory, selected configuration interaction, and state‐specific variance minimization. These demonstrations show that combining excited‐state‐specific quantum chemistry and variational Monte Carlo can be more reliably accurate than either equation of motion coupled cluster theory or multi‐reference perturbation theory, and that it can offer new clarity in cases where existing high‐level methods do not agree. This article is categorized under: Electronic Structure Theory > Ab Initio Electronic Structure Methods Software > Quantum Chemistry

Otis, Leon↗
DOE OSTI2013

Simulating Ru L 3 -Edge X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy with Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory: Model Complexes and Electron Localization in Mixed-Valence Metal Dimers

Ruthenium L3-edge X-ray absorption (XA) spectroscopy probes unoccupied 4d orbitals of the metal atom and is increasingly being used to investigate the local electronic structure in ground and excited electronic states of Ru complexes. The simultaneous development of computational tools for simulating Ru L3-edge spectra is crucial for interpreting the spectral features at a molecular level. This study demonstrates that time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is a viable and predictive tool for simulating ruthenium L3-edge XA spectroscopy. We systematically investigate the effects of exchange correlation functional and implicit and explicit solvent interactions on a series of RuII and RuIII complexes in their ground and electronic excited states. The TDDFT simulations reproduce all of the experimentally observed features in Ru L3-edge XA spectra within the experimental resolution (0.4 eV). Our simulations identify ligand-specific charge transfer features in complicated Ru L3-edge spectra of [Ru(CN)6]4- and RuII polypyridyl complexes illustrating the advantage of using TDDFT in complex systems. We conclude that the B3LYP functional most accurately predicts the transition energies of charge transfer features in these systems. We use our TDDFT approach to simulate experimental Ru L3-edge XA spectra of transition metal mixed-valence dimers of the form [(NC)5MII-CN-RuIII(NH3)5] (where M = Fe or Ru) dissolved in water. Our study determines the spectral signatures of electron delocalization in Ru L3-edge XA spectra. We find that the inclusion of explicit solvent molecules is necessary for reproducing the spectral features and the experimentally determined valencies in these mixed-valence complexes. This study validates the use of TDDFT for simulating Ru 2p excitations using popular quantum chemistry codes and providing a powerful interpretive tool for equilibrium and ultrafast Ru L3-edge XA spectroscopy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Next Day Building Load Predictions based on Limited Input Features Using an On-Line Laterally Primed Adaptive Resonance Theory Artificial Neural Network.

Optimal integration of thermal energy storage within commercial building applications requires accurate load predictions. Several methods exist that provide an estimate of a buildings future needs. Methods include component-based models and data-driven algorithms. This work implemented a previously untested algorithm for this application that is called a Laterally Primed Adaptive Resonance Theory (LAPART) artificial neural network (ANN). The LAPART algorithm provided accurate results over a two month period where minimal historical data and a small amount of input types were available. These results are significant, because common practice has often overlooked the implementation of an ANN. ANN have often been perceived to be too complex and require large amounts of data to provide accurate results. The LAPART neural network was implemented in an on-line learning manner. On-line learning refers to the continuous updating of training data as time occurs. For this experiment, training began with a singe day and grew to two months of data. This approach provides a platform for immediate implementation that requires minimal time and effort. The results from the LAPART algorithm were compared with statistical regression and a component-based model. The comparison was based on the predictions linear relationship with the measured data, mean squared error, mean bias error, and cost savings achieved by the respective prediction techniques. The results show that the LAPART algorithm provided a reliable and cost effective means to predict the building load for the next day.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗