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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 739 records · Page 41

Substrate Utilization and Competitive Interactions Among Soil Bacteria Vary With Life-History Strategies

Microorganisms have evolved various life-history strategies to survive fluctuating resource conditions in soils. However, it remains elusive how the life-history strategies of microorganisms influence their processing of organic carbon, which may affect microbial interactions and carbon cycling in soils. Here, we characterized the genomic traits, exometabolite profiles, and interactions of soil bacteria representing copiotrophic and oligotrophic strategists. Isolates were selected based on differences in ribosomal RNA operon ( rrn ) copy number, as a proxy for life-history strategies, with pairs of “high” and “low” rrn copy number isolates represented within the Micrococcales, Corynebacteriales, and Bacillales. We found that high rrn isolates consumed a greater diversity and amount of substrates than low rrn isolates in a defined growth medium containing common soil metabolites. We estimated overlap in substrate utilization profiles to predict the potential for resource competition and found that high rrn isolates tended to have a greater potential for competitive interactions. The predicted interactions positively correlated with the measured interactions that were dominated by negative interactions as determined through sequential growth experiments. This suggests that resource competition was a major force governing interactions among isolates, while cross-feeding of metabolic secretion likely contributed to the relatively rare positive interactions observed. By connecting bacterial life-history strategies, genomic features, and metabolism, our study advances the understanding of the links between bacterial community composition and the transformation of carbon in soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Power demand risk models on milling machines

The measurement of power demand risks in manufacturing power systems will benefit manufacturers and the wider society. If the risks can be characterized using manufacturing parameters, manufacturers can better control risks originating in those parameters, select less power-risky production plans, and reduce utility costs and resource consumption. The measurement of risk can also help manufacturers and power suppliers to protect their power systems from unexpected disturbances. Existing measures of risk, however, do not consider time duration, and thus cannot accurately quantify the risks in manufacturing power systems; the risks of a period of high power demand must be evaluated with the duration of the surge. Therefore, new methods of measuring power demand risks are proposed, adapting measures drawn from the field of finance. With a focus on milling operations, processing power is shown to be a function of processing amount and processing time, and a power demand distribution is directly derived as a joint distribution of and A and T. A bivariate random variable model with copulas is applied to examine the correlation in the joint distribution. Then, based on evaluation of a probability distribution of power demand from and, new risk measures are introduced. Herein illustrative examples are provided to show how the proposed measures can quantify the power demand risks from milling machines, based on manufacturing parameters. Certain manufacturing parameters are found to affect overall power demand risks, including i) raw material type, ii) variability in processing time, and iii) correlation between and. In the examples, these three factors increase power demand risks by up to 108%, 67%, and 1% respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Miktoarm Star Polymers: Synthesis and Applications

Polymers with precisely controlled structure and function are in high demand across a diverse array of applications spanning the life sciences and nanotechnology. One prototypical example is a class of branched block copolymers known as miktoarm stars (μ-stars), which contain two or more arm compositions connected at a common junction. Miktoarm stars have attracted considerable attention since their physical properties can be different from conventional linear block copolymers. This perspective highlights the latest developments and historical context in the field of miktoarm star polymers, including design strategies, synthetic techniques, and advanced characterization tools used to avoid common preparation pitfalls and tailor properties for emerging applications. Furthermore, our contemporary perspective on μ-star polymers is a resource for inspiring future research into this exciting class of materials at the intersection of chemistry, physics, and advanced technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Applied Machine-Learning Models to Identify Spectral Sub-Types of M Dwarfs from Photometric Surveys

M dwarfs are the most abundant stars in the Solar Neighborhood and they are prime targets for searching for rocky planets in habitable zones. Consequently, a detailed characterization of these stars is in demand. The spectral sub-type is one of the parameters that is used for the characterization and it is traditionally derived from the observed spectra. However, obtaining the spectra of M dwarfs is expensive in terms of observation time and resources due to their intrinsic faintness. We study the performance of four machine-learning (ML) models—K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Probabilistic Random Forest (PRF), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)—in identifying the spectral sub-types of M dwarfs at a grand scale by deploying broadband photometry in the optical and near-infrared. We trained the ML models by using the spectroscopically identified M dwarfs from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release (DR) 7, together with their photometric colors that were derived from the SDSS, Two-Micron All-Sky Survey, and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. We found that the RF, PRF, and MLP give a comparable prediction accuracy, 74%, while the KNN provides slightly lower accuracy, 71%. We also found that these models can predict the spectral sub-type of M dwarfs with ~99% accuracy within ±1 sub-type. The five most useful features for the prediction are r - z, r - i, r - J, r - H , and g - z, and hence lacking data in all SDSS bands substantially reduces the prediction accuracy. However, we can achieve an accuracy of over 70% when the r and i magnitudes are available. Since the stars in this study are nearby (d ≲ 1300 pc for 95% of the stars), the dust extinction can reduce the prediction accuracy by only 3%. Finally, we used our optimized RF models to predict the spectral sub-types of M dwarfs from the Catalog of Cool Dwarf Targets for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite, and we provide the optimized RF models for public use.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Identification of Desulfobacterales as primary hydrogenotrophs in a complex microbial mat community

Hypersaline microbial mats have been shown to produce significant quantities of H 2 under dark, anoxic conditions via cyanobacterial fermentation. This flux of a widely accessible microbial substrate has potential to significantly influence the ecology of the mat, and any consumption will affect the net efflux of H 2 that might otherwise be captured as a resource. Here, we focus on H 2 consumption in a microbial mat from Elkhorn Slough, California, USA, for which H 2 production has been previously characterized. Active biologic H 2 consumption in this mat is indicated by a significant time-dependent decrease in added H 2 compared with a killed control. Inhibition of sulfate reduction, as indicated by a decrease in hydrogen sulfide production relative to controls, resulted in a significant increase in H 2 efflux, suggesting that sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) are important hydrogenotrophs. Low methane efflux under these same conditions indicated that methanogens are likely not important hydrogenotrophs. Analyses of genes and transcripts that encode for rRNA or dissimilatory sulfite reductase, using both PCR-dependent and PCR-independent metatranscriptomic sequencing methods, demonstrated that Desulfobacterales are the dominant, active SRB in the upper, H 2 -producing layer of the mat (0–2 mm). This hypothesis was further supported by the identification of transcripts encoding hydrogenases derived from Desulfobacterales capable of H 2 oxidation. Analysis of molecular data provided no evidence for the activity of hydrogenotrophic methanogens. Lastly, the combined biogeochemical and molecular data strongly indicate that SRB belonging to the Desulfobacterales are the quantitatively important hydrogenotrophs in the Elkhorn Slough mat.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nuclear Physics Network Requirements Review Report

The Energy Sciences Network (ESnet) is the Office of Science’s high-performance network user facility, delivering highly reliable data transport capabilities optimized for the requirements of data-intensive science. In essence, ESnet is the circulatory system that enables the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) science mission by connecting each and every DOE lab and its user facilities. ESnet is funded and stewarded by the Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Program and managed and operated by the Scientific Networking Division at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). ESnet is widely regarded as a global leader in the research and education networking community. ESnet connects DOE national laboratories, user facilities, and major experiments so scientists can use remote instruments and computing resources as well as share data with collaborators, transfer large data sets, and access distributed data repositories. While ESnet provides network connectivity, it cannot be characterized as an internet service provider as it is specifically built to provide a range of network services that are tailored to meet the unique requirements of DOE’s data-intensive science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Biomolecular and Characterization Imaging Science Program: 2023 Principal Investigator Meeting Proceedings

The 2023 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program’s Biomolecular Characterization and Imaging Science (BCIS) Principal Investigator Meeting expanded in scope from previous Bioimaging Science Program (BSP) meetings to include BER Structural Biology and Imaging Resources, which are located largely at DOE Office of Science national laboratories. The BCIS meeting was part of BER’s Biological Systems Science Division (BSSD) annual PI meeting, which was held April 17–19, 2023, and featured parallel meetings of the BCIS and Genomic Science programs (GSP). The meetings were held together to encourage networking and idea exchange across technologies and biological application areas, forging new multidisciplinary collaborations among researchers from adjacent BSSD programmatic areas. Two joint BCIS-GSP sessions were held: “BCIS Technologies for Investigating the Rhizosphere” and “Joint Emerging Topics and Technologies.” The rhizosphere session focused on scientific findings from BCIS and GSP PIs, including national laboratory collaborations. The intent was to identify new opportunities to measure and understand the complex community of microbes, roots, and soils that support plant growth under challenging environmental conditions. The emerging technologies session highlighted forward-looking approaches and tools to tackle challenges within the scope of BSSD research on investigating and modifying genomic and molecular function. A final interactive discussion of the BCIS program was led by plenary session chairs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Leaf-level physiological strategies related to productivity and plasticity of Populus in the Southeastern United States

Introduction: Populus and its hybrids are attractive bioenergy crops and the southeastern United States has broad ability to supply bioenergy markets with woody biomass. Breeding and hybridization have led to superior eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides W. Bartram ex Marshall) and hybrid poplars adapted to a wide variety of site types not suited for agricultural production. In order to maximize productivity and minimize inputs, genotypes need to efficiently use available site resources and tolerate environmental stresses. In addition, we need to determine plasticity of traits and their coordination across sites to select traits that will broadly characterize genotypes. Therefore, our study objectives were to determine (1) which leaf traits were correlated with growth, (2) if traits and genotypes exhibited significant plasticity across sites, and (3) how traits were coordinated within and across sites and Populus taxa. Methods: We measured trees at two sites in northeastern Mississippi, United States: one upland and one alluvial terrace site. Genotypes included eastern cottonwoods as well as F 1 crosses of eastern cottonwood and P. maximowiczii (Henry), P. nigra (L.) and P. trichocarpa (Torr. & Gray). Results: We found that sites differed in which leaf traits were correlated with productivity; with water use efficiency specifically being positively correlated with growth at an alluvial terrace site, but negatively correlated with growth at an upland site. Tree height growth, leaf isotope composition (δ 13 C and δ 15 N), as well as leaf mass per area (LMA) exhibited the least plasticity across sites, while physiological gas exchange parameters and leaf nitrogen concentration exhibited the highest plasticity. Broadly across taxa, leaf carbon isotope ratios were correlated with intrinsic water use efficiency, and stomatal conductance was positively correlated with photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency across sites, while leaf nitrogen isotope ratios exhibited contrasting relationships with leaf nitrogen concentration. Discussion: Overall, these results allow us to refine selections of productive genotypes based on site conditions and site-specific relationships with physiological parameters to better match Populus taxa with sites and landowner objectives.

bioenergy feedstocks↗

Phytozome Comparative Plant Genomics Portal

The Dept. of Energy Joint Genome Institute is a genomics user facility supporting DOE mission science in the areas of Bioenergy, Carbon Cycling, and Biogeochemistry. The Plant Program at the JGI applies genomic, analytical, computational and informatics platforms and methods to: 1. Understand and accelerate the improvement (domestication) of bioenergy crops 2. Characterize and moderate plant response to climate change 3. Use comparative genomics to identify constrained elements and infer gene function 4. Build high quality genomic resource platforms of JGI Plant Flagship genomes for functional and experimental work 5. Expand functional genomic resources for Plant Flagship genomes

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Basic Research Needs for Catalysis Science to Transform Energy Technologies: Report from the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Basic Energy Sciences Workshop May 8–10, 2017, in Gaithersburg, Maryland

Energy technologies affect virtually every aspect of life in modern societies—including transportation, utilities, agriculture, medicine, and the availability of a myriad of consumer products—and depend on human ability to accelerate and to guide chemical transformations. Controlling these transformations, which occur in the microscopic world of atoms and molecules, forms the basis of countless technologies such as production of fuels, fertilizers, plastics, pharmaceuticals and much more. At the very core of these chemical transformations are catalysts—specialized and often highly complex types of matter that allow chemical reactions to occur rapidly and produce specific products. Catalysts also have the remarkable ability to perform their tasks millions of times without themselves being consumed. The discovery of inexpensive and widely-deployable energy and chemical technologies, and their underpinning catalysis science, is critical to ensure the economic viability of U.S. energy and chemical industries. Over the past decade, remarkable new tools have been discovered that allow the observation of catalytic transformations in exquisite detail, and assembly of novel and elaborate catalytic architectures with atomic precision. Furthermore, increasingly sophisticated theoretical and computational tools allow understanding of the essential details of the catalytic processes, and this overall progress has led to the discovery of catalysts with superior performance and the associated economic benefit. In the next decade and beyond, science promises to revolutionize how catalysts and catalytic processes are designed, to enable the introduction of new energy resources, to provide routes to sustainable synthesis of chemicals and other valuable materials, and to create novel approaches to chemical energy storage. This report is the result of the Basic Energy Sciences Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Catalysis Science to Transform Energy Technologies that was held in May 2017, and was attended by more than 100 leading national and international scientific experts. The attendees were organized into four panels: 1. Diversified Energy Feedstocks and Carriers, 2. Novel Approaches to Energy Transformations, 3. Advanced Chemical Conversion Approaches, and 4. Crosscutting Capabilities and Challenges: Synthesis, Theory, and Characterization. The workshop identified five priority research directions (PRDs) that are aimed at harnessing complexity in catalysis to create next-generation energy technologies and realizing efficient catalytic processes to increase the diversity of resources for production of chemicals and energy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analytical Model to Detect Fault Permeability Alteration Induced by Fault Reactivation in Compartmentalized Reservoirs

Underground fluid injection induces changes in in situ stress condition of the target formation and local faults that can potentially lead to fault reactivation, which may result in the leakage of injected and/or native fluids into neighboring formations. In this paper, we introduce an analytical method to detect fault reactivation caused by fluid injection into deep faulted aquifers considering across-fault leakage. The fundamental assumption made in our model is that fault permeability will be altered upon fault slip. Therefore, we model fault reactivation as a sudden change in fault permeability at the onset of fault slip. The fault is modeled as a linear interface between two permeable formations with equal rock and fluid properties. The governing equations are coupled through the fault interface and are solved using the Laplace-Fourier integral transform technique. Based on the analytical solution, we find the characteristic bottomhole pressure and pressure derivative responses that enable detecting fault reactivation using diagnostic plots. We observe that pressure derivative undergoes a rapid change at the onset of fault slip followed by a late-time trend to attain a new equilibrium governed by the altered fault permeability. Furthermore, we discuss the evolution of the across-fault leakage rate upon and after fault slippage. Here, the results from this study are presented in the form diagnostic plots and type curves that may be used for reservoir and fault characterization purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Screening and Selection of Illinois Basin ROZs for Resource Assessment

This report summarizes the efforts to screen the seven candidate formations as well as the selection of three formations (Carper Sandstone [part of Borden Siltstone], Tar Springs Sandstone, and Geneva Dolomite/Dutch Creek Sandstone) for further characterization and detailed analysis.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Quantum-centric supercomputing for materials science: A perspective on challenges and future directions

Computational models are an essential tool for the design, characterization, and discovery of novel materials. Computationally hard tasks in materials science stretch the limits of existing high-performance supercomputing centers, consuming much of their resources for simulation, analysis, and data processing. Quantum computing, on the other hand, is an emerging technology with the potential to accelerate many of the computational tasks needed for materials science. In order to do that, the quantum technology must interact with conventional high-performance computing in several ways: approximate results validation, identification of hard problems, and synergies in quantum-centric supercomputing. Here in this paper, we provide a perspective on how quantum-centric supercomputing can help address critical computational problems in materials science, the challenges to face in order to solve representative use cases, and new suggested directions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pareto Optimization of Oligomer Polarizability and Dipole Moment Using a Genetic Algorithm

High-performance electronic components are highly sought after in order to produce increasingly smaller and cheaper electronic devices. Drawing inspiration from inorganic dielectric materials, in which both polarizability and polarization contribute, organic materials can also maximize both. For a large set of small molecules drawn from PubChem, a Pareto-like front appears between the polarizability and dipole moment, indicating the presence of an apparent trade-off between these two properties. We tested this balance in π-conjugated materials by searching for novel conjugated hexamers with simultaneously large polar- izabilities and dipole moments with potential use for dielectric materials. Using a genetic algorithm (GA) screening technique in conjunction with an approximate density functional tight-binding method for property calculations, we were able to efficiently search chemical space for optimal hexamers. Given the scope of chemical space, using the GA technique saves considerable time and resources by speeding up molecular searches compared to a systematic search. Here, we also explored the underlying structure–function relationships, including sequence and monomer properties, that characterize large polarizability and dipole moment regimes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model. We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g. land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Use of Data Libraries for IAEA Nuclear Security Assessment Methodologies (NUSAM) [section 5.4]

Data libraries are essential for the characterization of the facility and provide the documented input which enables the facility assessment results and subsequent conclusions. Data Libraries are historical, verifiable, quantified, and applicable collections of testing data on different types of barriers, sensors, cameras, procedures, and/or personnel. Data libraries are developed and maintained as part of any assessment program or process. Data is collected during the initial stages of facility characterization to aid in the model and/or simulation development process. Data library values may also be developed through the use of state testing centers and/or site resources by testing different types of barriers, sensors, cameras, procedures, and/or personnel. If no data exists, subject matter expert opinion and manufacturer's specifications/ testing values can be the basis for initially assigning values, but are generally less reliable and lack appropriate confidence measures. The use of existing data libraries that have been developed by a state testing organization reduces the assessment costs by establishing standard delay, detection and assessment values for use by multiple sites or facilities where common barriers and alarms systems exist.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Holistic Measurement Driven Resilience: Combining Operational Fault and Failure Measurements and Fault Injection for Quantifying Fault Detection, Propagation and Impact. Final report

For HPC systems to date, application resilience to faults and failures has been accomplished by the brute- force method of checkpoint/restart, which allows an application to make forward progress in the face of system and application faults, errors, and failures independent of root cause or end result. It has remained the primary resilience mechanism because we lack a way to identify faults and anticipate consequences early enough to take meaningful mitigating action. However, checkpoint/restart implementations put a tremendous burden on system resources and on the applications themselves and is becoming less feasible at scale. Because we have not yet operated at scales at which checkpoint/restart fails to provide forward progress, despite increasing costs, vendors have had little motivation to provide the instrumentation necessary for early identification of faults and failures. However, as we move from petascale to exascale, component mean time to failure (MTTF) will render the existing techniques ineffectual and/or too expensive. Furthermore, fault recovery mechanisms such as failover and/or error correction introduce performance inconsistency. Instrumentation allowing early indication of problems and tools to enable use of such information by systems, operating systems, and applications offer an alternative, more scalable and less costly solution. In the HMDR project, we built on our experience and expertise developed and accumulated over years of research on design, monitoring, measurement, and assessment of resilient computing systems. Analysis of field data on the current and past generations of extreme-scale systems revealed several challenges that, if not addressed in increasingly larger and more complex systems, may hinder the effectiveness of future exascale computing systems. Specifically, i) file systems and interconnects in current-generation large-scale systems already operate at the margins of resiliency, including consistent performance, and may not scale to larger deployments; ii) automated, software-based failover mechanisms are frequently inadequate and can introduce wider failures, such that failures during recovery may lead to system/application failures, including system-wide outages; and iii) silent data corruption represents a critical fault mode and will require efficient detection mechanisms if next-generation applications are to take full advantage of exascale hardware. To address the above challenges, we assembled a team of world-renowned experts in resilient extreme- scale computing from the University of Illinois (Electrical and Computer Engineering, Computer Science, and NCSA), SNL, LANL, NERSC, and Cray. Our team includes representatives from centers that house many of the largest HPC resources in the world, both today and over the coming years. The team has a unique track record of research in i) system and application failure characterization based on the analysis of field data, ii) data-driven design of fault/error detection mechanisms, and iii) experimental characterization of system/application resiliency. The team includes system owners/operators who provide continuous data collection and access and ensure installation of appropriate analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗