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At least 739 records · Page 41

A century of genetic variation inferred from a persistent soil‐stored seed bank

Abstract Stratigraphic accretion of dormant propagules in soil can result in natural archives useful for studying ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change. Few attempts have been made, however, to use soil‐stored seed banks as natural archives, in part because of concerns over nonrandom attrition and mixed stratification. Here, we examine the persistent seed bank of Schoenoplectus americanus , a foundational brackish marsh sedge, to determine whether it can serve as a resource for reconstructing historical records of demographic and population genetic variation. After assembling profiles of the seed bank from radionuclide‐dated soil cores, we germinated seeds to “resurrect” cohorts spanning the 20th century. Using microsatellite markers, we assessed genetic diversity and differentiation among depth cohorts, drawing comparisons to extant plants at the study site and in nearby and more distant marshes. We found that seed density peaked at intermediate soil depths. We also detected genotypic differences among cohorts as well as between cohorts and extant plants. Genetic diversity did not decline with depth, indicating that the observed pattern of differentiation is not due to attrition. Patterns of differentiation within and among extant marshes also suggest that local populations persist as aggregates of small clones, likely reflecting repeated seedling recruitment and low immigration from admixed regional gene pools. These findings indicate that persistent and stratified soil‐stored seed banks merit further consideration as resources for reconstructing decadal‐ to century‐long records that can lend insight into the tempo and nature of ecological and evolutionary processes that shape populations over time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Human‐induced salinity changes impact marine organisms and ecosystems

Abstract Climate change is fundamentally altering marine and coastal ecosystems on a global scale. While the effects of ocean warming and acidification on ecology and ecosystem functions and services are being comprehensively researched, less attention is directed toward understanding the impacts of human‐driven ocean salinity changes. The global water cycle operates through water fluxes expressed as precipitation, evaporation, and freshwater runoff from land. Changes to these in turn modulate ocean salinity and shape the marine and coastal environment by affecting ocean currents, stratification, oxygen saturation, and sea level rise. Besides the direct impact on ocean physical processes, salinity changes impact ocean biological functions with the ecophysiological consequences are being poorly understood. This is surprising as salinity changes may impact diversity, ecosystem and habitat structure loss, and community shifts including trophic cascades. Climate model future projections (of end of the century salinity changes) indicate magnitudes that lead to modification of open ocean plankton community structure and habitat suitability of coral reef communities. Such salinity changes are also capable of affecting the diversity and metabolic capacity of coastal microorganisms and impairing the photosynthetic capacity of (coastal and open ocean) phytoplankton, macroalgae, and seagrass, with downstream ramifications on global biogeochemical cycling. The scarcity of comprehensive salinity data in dynamic coastal regions warrants additional attention. Such datasets are crucial to quantify salinity‐based ecosystem function relationships and project such changes that ultimately link into carbon sequestration and freshwater as well as food availability to human populations around the globe. It is critical to integrate vigorous high‐quality salinity data with interacting key environmental parameters (e.g., temperature, nutrients, oxygen) for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenically induced marine changes and its impact on human health and the global economy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Agricultural Management Legacy Effects on Switchgrass Growth and Soil Carbon Gains

Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) is a native North American grass currently considered a high-potential bioenergy feedstock crop. However, previous reports questioned its effectiveness in generating soil organic carbon (SOC) gains, with resultant uncertainty regarding the monoculture switchgrass's impact on the environmental sustainability of bioenergy agriculture. We hypothesize that the inconsistencies in past SOC accrual results might be due, in part, to differences in prior land management among the systems subsequently planted to switchgrass. To test this hypothesis, we measured SOC and other soil properties, root biomass, and switchgrass growth in an experimental site with a 30-year history of contrasting tillage and N-fertilization treatments, 7 years after switchgrass establishment. We determined switchgrass' monthly gross primary production (GPP) for six consecutive years and conducted deep soil sampling. Nitrogen fertilization expectedly stimulated switchgrass growth; however, a tendency for better plant growth was also observed under unfertilized settings in the former no-till soil. In topsoil, SOC significantly increased from 2007 to 2023 in fertilized treatments of both tillage histories, with the greatest increase observed in fertilized no-till. Fertilized no-till also had the highest particulate organic matter content in the topsoil, with no differences among the treatments observed in deeper soil layers. However, regardless of fertilization, the tillage history had a strong effect on stratification with depth of SOC, total N, and microbial biomass C. Results suggested that historic and ongoing N fertilization had a substantial impact on switchgrass growth and soil characteristics, while tillage legacy had a much weaker, but still discernible, effect.

bioenergy crop production system↗

Measured influence of overhead HVAC on exposure to airborne contaminants from simulated speaking in a meeting and a classroom

Tracer gas experiments were conducted in a 158 m 3 room with overhead supply diffusers to study dispersion of contaminants from simulated speaking in physically distanced meeting and classroom configurations. The room was contained within a 237 m 3 cell with open plenum return to the HVAC system. Heated manikins at desks and a researcher operating the tracer release apparatus presented 8-9 thermal plumes. Experiments were conducted under conditions of no forced air and neutral, cooled, or heated air supplied at 980-1100 cmh, and with/out 20% outdoor air. CO 2 was released at the head of one manikin in each experiment to simulate small (< 5 µm diameter) respiratory aerosols. The metric of exposure relative to perfectly mixed (ERM) is introduced to quantify impacts, based on measurements at manikin heads and at three heights in the center and corners of the room. Chilled or neutral supply air provided good mixing with ERMs close to one. Thermal stratification during heating produced higher ERMs at most manikins: 25% were ≥ 2.5 and the highest were > 5× perfectly mixed conditions. Operation of two within-zone air cleaners together moving ≥400 cmh vertically in the room provided enough mixing to mitigate elevated exposure variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shaler: in situ analysis of a fluvial sedimentary deposit on Mars

This article characterizes the detailed sedimentology of a fluvial sandbody on Mars for the first time and interprets its depositional processes and palaeoenvironmental setting. Despite numerous orbital observations of fluvial landforms on the surface of Mars, ground-based characterization of the sedimentology of such fluvial deposits has not previously been possible. Results from the NASA Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover provide an opportunity to reconstruct at fine scale the sedimentary architecture and palaeomorphology of a fluvial environment on Mars. This work describes the grain size, texture and sedimentary facies of the Shaler outcrop, reconstructs the bedding architecture, and analyses cross-stratification to determine palaeocurrents. On the basis of bedset geometry and inclination, grain-size distribution and bedform migration direction, this study concludes that the Shaler outcrop probably records the accretion of a fluvial barform. The majority of the outcrop consists of large-scale trough cross-bedding of coarse sand and granules. Palaeocurrent analyses and bedform reconstruction indicate that the beds were deposited by bedforms that migrated towards the north-east, across the surface of a bar that migrated south-east. Stacked cosets of dune cross-bedding suggest aggradation of multiple bedforms, which provides evidence for short periods of sustained flow during Shaler deposition. However, local evidence for aeolian reworking and the presence of potential desiccation cracks within the outcrop suggest that fluvial deposition may have been intermittent. The uppermost strata at Shaler are distinct in terms of texture and chemistry and are inferred to record deposition from a different sediment dispersal system with a contrasting provenance. The outcrop as a whole is a testament to the availability of liquid water on the surface of Mars in its early history.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Experimental Comparison of Cyclic Variations in Diesel–Natural Gas and POMDME–Natural Gas Dual Fuel Combustion

Abstract Cyclic variations in internal combustion engines are caused by various factors, including combustion mixture stratification, in-cylinder flows, local fluctuations in air-fuel ratio, etc. Cyclic variations have a profound impact on engine performance and emissions. In this study, cyclic variations in dual fuel combustion are analyzed, comparing diesel–natural gas (NG) and polyoxymethylene dimethyl ether (POMDME)-NG dual fuel combustion. Cyclic variability was initially quantified using the coefficient of variation of gross indicated mean effective pressure (IMEPg) computed from experimental cylinder pressure data. The cases analyzed in this study had a coefficient of variation (COV) of IMEPg greater than or around 5%, which was the lower limit of onset of instability for this engine. Experiments were performed at two fixed start of injection (SOI) of high-cetane fuel: 310 CAD and 350 CAD. For all experiments, a constant load of 5 bar IMEPg was maintained, and the intake boost pressure and rail pressure were fixed at 1.5 bar and 500 bar, respectively. For each case, 1000 cycles of cylinder pressure data were recorded, filtered, and processed using an in-house heat release analysis code for each cycle. A comparison between individual cycles and the “ensemble averaged cycle” was made for both diesel–NG and POMDME–NG combustion. For the early SOI of 310 CAD, the peak cylinder pressure fluctuations of individual cycle were found to be ± 15 bar for both fuel combinations, compared to the ensemble averaged cycle, and < 1/10th of the cycles had an IMEPg lower than 0.05 bar of the ensemble averaged cycle. However, the peak pressure fluctuations were found to be lower for POMDME–NG (±3 bar) than diesel–NG dual fuel combustion at 350 CAD SOI, indicating lower cyclic variations. The higher reactivity of POMDME helped reduce fluctuations in combustion phasing at the retarded SOI. The presence of cycles of deterioration and cycles of recovery were also observed with diesel–NG combustion for 310 CAD SOI, and the scatter in the IMEPg return map was similar for both fuel combinations. The IMEPg return map for POMDME–NG combustion was less scattered at the 350 CAD SOI.

Engineering↗

Evaluating Transfer and Pumping of Slurries from Pulsed Jet Mixed Vessels

Due to gravity, solids in slurries will settle if density differences between the solids and liquid are positive (i.e., particle has a negative buoyant force) unless rheological properties and flow conditions are adequate to overcome the gravitational effects. The rate of settling depends on the force balance of the particle, which includes the surface forces associated with fluid rheology. Given the same fluid and solid properties, particles that are larger and denser tend to settle faster. When pumping slurry into a vessel at concentrations precluding hindered settling with insufficient mixing, particle and density distributions can result in preferential settling, creating stratification in the solids concentration within the vessel. For vessels with transfer line inlets located in the lower portion of the tank, the stratified solids concentration may be detrimental to the transfer system performance. Elevated concentrations of solids in the slurry entrained at the inlet to the transfer line can result in the effective viscosity or slurry bulk density exceeding the design limits of the pump. These conditions could result in plugging of the transfer line or onset of cavitation of the pumps because of excessive pressure drop. These conditions can be exacerbated with periodic inlet conditions existing at the transfer line inlet. Periodic conditions can result when vessel mixing is intermittent such as with pulsed jet mixers (PJM). The transfer line inlet conditions are impacted by the periodic nature of the PJM operations with respect to suspension of solids and their transport to the inlet of the transfer line. A scaling approach is presented, and corresponding test requirements are developed for assessing the prevention of plugging the pipeline. Line plugging mechanisms are addressed that do not include plugging due to steady-state high-density slurry entering the transfer line and reducing the net positive suction head available (NPSHA) at the pump inlet to below that required for pump operation. Items considered include the transition to reduced relative flow velocities, such that the critical pipe velocity for solids deposition, Ucd, is not maintained, and segregation of heavy solids during the transport. The recommended requirements to prevent plugging include: • Limits for viscosity and density for entrained slurry to prevent the pressure drop in the pipeline from exceeding pump capacity. • Limits for viscosity and density for entrained slurry to prevent the net positive suction head available (NPSHA) from falling below the net positive suction head required (NPSHR) for operating the pump. • Transfer line velocity and flow rate requirements to maintain solids in suspension, while avoiding line plugging that results from deposition of solids within the transfer line. This paper describes the development of the scaling and testing requirements to verify that proposed approaches for transfer and pump out are appropriately developed

periodic flow, mixing, pipeline plugging, scaling,↗

A novel software and conceptual design of the hardware platform for intensity modulated radiation therapy

Purpose: To deliver high quality intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) using a novel generalized sparse orthogonal collimators (SOCs), the authors introduce a novel direct aperture optimization (DAO) approach based on discrete rectangular representation. Methods: A total of seven patients—two glioblastoma multiforme, three head & neck (including one with three prescription doses), and two lung—were included. 20 noncoplanar beams were selected using a column generation and pricing optimization method. The SOC is a generalized conventional orthogonal collimators with N leaves in each collimator bank, where N = 1, 2, or 4. SOC degenerates to conventional jaws when N = 1. For SOC-based IMRT, rectangular aperture optimization (RAO) was performed to optimize the fluence maps using rectangular representation, producing fluence maps that can be directly converted into a set of deliverable rectangular apertures. In order to optimize the dose distribution and minimize the number of apertures used, the overall objective was formulated to incorporate an L2 penalty reflecting the difference between the prescription and the projected doses, and an L1 sparsity regularization term to encourage a low number of nonzero rectangular basis coefficients. The optimization problem was solved using the Chambolle–Pock algorithm, a first-order primal–dual algorithm. Performance of RAO was compared to conventional two-step IMRT optimization including fluence map optimization and direct stratification for multileaf collimator (MLC) segmentation (DMS) using the same number of segments. For the RAO plans, segment travel time for SOC delivery was evaluated for the N = 1, N = 2, and N = 4 SOC designs to characterize the improvement in delivery efficiency as a function of N. Results: Comparable PTV dose homogeneity and coverage were observed between the RAO and the DMS plans. The RAO plans were slightly superior to the DMS plans in sparing critical structures. On average, the maximum and mean critical organ doses were reduced by 1.94% and 1.44% of the prescription dose. The average number of delivery segments was 12.68 segments per beam for both the RAO and DMS plans. The N = 2 and N = 4 SOC designs were, on average, 1.56 and 1.80 times more efficient than the N = 1 SOC design to deliver. The mean aperture size produced by the RAO plans was 3.9 times larger than that of the DMS plans. Conclusions: The DAO and dose domain optimization approach enabled high quality IMRT plans using a low-complexity collimator setup. The dosimetric quality is comparable or slightly superior to conventional MLC-based IMRT plans using the same number of delivery segments. The SOC IMRT delivery efficiency can be significantly improved by increasing the leaf numbers, but the number is still significantly lower than the number of leaves in a typical MLC.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

SU-F-R-36: Validating Quantitative Radiomic Texture Features for Oncologic PET: A Digital Phantom Study

Purpose: Radiomic texture features derived from the oncologic PET have recently been brought under intense investigation within the context of patient stratification and treatment outcome prediction in a variety of cancer types; however, their validity has not yet been examined. This work is aimed to validate radiomic PET texture metrics through the use of realistic simulations in the ground truth setting. Methods: Simulation of FDG-PET was conducted by applying the Zubal phantom as an attenuation map to the SimSET software package that employs Monte Carlo techniques to model the physical process of emission imaging. A total of 15 irregularly-shaped lesions featuring heterogeneous activity distribution were simulated. For each simulated lesion, 28 texture features in relation to the intensity histograms (GLIH), grey-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCOM), neighborhood difference matrices (GLNDM), and zone size matrices (GLZSM) were evaluated and compared with their respective values extracted from the ground truth activity map. Results: In reference to the values from the ground truth images, texture parameters appearing on the simulated data varied with a range of 0.73–3026.2% for GLIH-based, 0.02–100.1% for GLCOM-based, 1.11–173.8% for GLNDM-based, and 0.35–66.3% for GLZSM-based. For majority of the examined texture metrics (16/28), their values on the simulated data differed significantly from those from the ground truth images (P-value ranges from <0.0001 to 0.04). Features not exhibiting significant difference comprised of GLIH-based standard deviation, GLCO-based energy and entropy, GLND-based coarseness and contrast, and GLZS-based low gray-level zone emphasis, high gray-level zone emphasis, short zone low gray-level emphasis, long zone low gray-level emphasis, long zone high gray-level emphasis, and zone size nonuniformity. Conclusion: The extent to which PET imaging disturbs texture appearance is feature-dependent and could be substantial. It is thus advised that use of PET texture parameters for predictive and prognostic measurements in oncologic setting awaits further systematic and critical evaluation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-F-T-202: An Evaluation Method of Lifetime Attributable Risk for Comparing Between Proton Beam Therapy and Intensity Modulated X-Ray Therapy for Pediatric Cancer Patients by Averaging Four Dose-Response Models for Carcinoma Induction

Purpose: To examine how much lifetime attributable risk (LAR) as an in silico surrogate marker of radiation-induced secondary cancer would be lowered by using proton beam therapy (PBT) in place of intensity modulated x-ray therapy (IMXT) in pediatric patients. Methods: From 242 pediatric patients with cancers who were treated with PBT, 26 patients were selected by random sampling after stratification into four categories: a) brain, head, and neck, b) thoracic, c) abdominal, and d) whole craniospinal (WCNS) irradiation. IMXT was re-planned using the same computed tomography and region of interest. Using dose volume histogram (DVH) of PBT and IMXT, the LAR of Schneider et al. was calculated for the same patient. The published four dose-response models for carcinoma induction: i) full model, ii) bell-shaped model, iii) plateau model, and ix) linear model were tested for organs at risk. In the case that more than one dose-response model was available, the LAR for this patient was calculated by averaging LAR for each dose-response model. Results: Calculation of the LARs of PBT and IMXT based on DVH was feasible for all patients. The mean±standard deviation of the cumulative LAR difference between PBT and IMXT for the four categories was a) 0.77±0.44% (n=7, p=0.0037), b) 23.1±17.2%,(n=8, p=0.0067), c) 16.4±19.8% (n=8, p=0.0525), and d) 49.9±21.2% (n=3, p=0.0275, one tailed t-test), respectively. The LAR was significantly lower by PBT than IMXT for the the brain, head, and neck region, thoracic region, and whole craniospinal irradiation. Conclusion: In pediatric patients who had undergone PBT, the LAR of PBT was significantly lower than the LAR of IMXT estimated by in silico modeling. This method was suggested to be useful as an in silico surrogate marker of secondary cancer induced by different radiotherapy techniques. This research was supported by the Translational Research Network Program, JSPS KAKENHI Grant No. 15H04768 and the Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education (GI-CoRE), Hokkaido University, founded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TU-D-207B-02: Delta-Radiomics: The Prognostic Value of Therapy-Induced Changes in Radiomics Features for Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Purpose: To determine how radiomics features change during radiation therapy and whether those changes (delta-radiomics features) can improve prognostic models built with clinical factors. Methods: 62 radiomics features, including histogram, co-occurrence, run-length, gray-tone difference, and shape features, were calculated from pretreatment and weekly intra-treatment CTs for 107 stage III NSCLC patients (5–9 images per patient). Image preprocessing for each feature was determined using the set of pretreatment images: bit-depth resample and/or a smoothing filter were tested for their impact on volume-correlation and significance of each feature in univariate cox regression models to maximize their information content. Next, the optimized features were calculated from the intratreatment images and tested in linear mixed-effects models to determine which features changed significantly with dose-fraction. The slopes in these significant features were defined as delta-radiomics features. To test their prognostic potential multivariate cox regression models were fitted, first using only clinical features and then clinical+delta-radiomics features for overall-survival, local-recurrence, and distant-metastases. Leave-one-out cross validation was used for model-fitting and patient predictions. Concordance indices(c-index) and p-values for the log-rank test with patients stratified at the median were calculated. Results: Approximately one-half of the 62 optimized features required no preprocessing, one-fourth required smoothing, and one-fourth required smoothing and resampling. From these, 54 changed significantly during treatment. For overall-survival, the c-index improved from 0.52 for clinical factors alone to 0.62 for clinical+delta-radiomics features. For distant-metastases, the c-index improved from 0.53 to 0.58, while for local-recurrence it did not improve. Patient stratification significantly improved (p-value<0.05) for overallsurvival and distant-metastases when delta-radiomics features were included. The delta-radiomics versions of autocorrelation, kurtosis, and compactness were selected most frequently in leave-one-out iterations. Conclusion: Weekly changes in radiomics features can potentially be used to evaluate treatment response and predict patient outcomes. High-risk patients could be recommended for dose escalation or consolidation chemotherapy. This project was funded in part by grants from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the Cancer Prevention Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Metagenomic Characterization of Soil Microbial Communities in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (Puerto Rico) and Implications for Nitrogen Cycling

The phylogenetic and functional diversities of microbial communities in tropical rainforests and how these differ from those of temperate communities remain poorly described but are directly related to the increased fluxes of greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (N 2 O) from the tropics. Toward closing these knowledge gaps, in this study we analyzed replicated shotgun metagenomes representing distinct life zones and an elevation gradient from four locations in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF), Puerto Rico. These soils had a distinct microbial community composition and lower species diversity compared to those of temperate grasslands or agricultural soils. In contrast to the overall distinct community composition, the relative abundances and nucleotide sequences of N 2 O reductases (nosZ) were highly similar between tropical forest and temperate soils. However, respiratory NO reductase (norB) was 2-fold more abundant in the tropical soils, which might be relatable to their greater N 2 O emissions. Nitrogen fixation (nifH) also showed higher relative abundance in rainforest than in temperate soils, i.e., 20% versus 0.1 to 0.3% of bacterial genomes in each soil type harbored the gene, respectively. Finally, unlike temperate soils, LEF soils showed little stratification with depth in the first 0 to 30 cm, with ~45% of community composition differences explained solely by location. Collectively, these results advance our understanding of spatial diversity and metabolic repertoire of tropical rainforest soil communities and should facilitate future ecological studies of these ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sulfur Metabolites Play Key System-Level Roles in Modulating Denitrification

Competition between nitrate-reducing bacteria (NRB) and sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) for resources in anoxic environments is generally thought to be governed largely by thermodynamics. It is now recognized that intermediates of nitrogen and sulfur cycling (e.g., hydrogen sulfide, nitrite, etc.) can also directly impact NRB and SRB activities in freshwater, wastewater, and sediment and therefore may play important roles in competitive interactions. Here, through comparative transcriptomic and metabolomic analyses, we have uncovered mechanisms of hydrogen sulfide- and cysteine-mediated inhibition of nitrate respiratory growth for the NRB Intrasporangium calvum C5. Specifically, the systems analysis predicted that cysteine and hydrogen sulfide inhibit growth of I. calvum C5 by disrupting distinct steps across multiple pathways, including branched-chain amino acid (BCAA) biosynthesis, utilization of specific carbon sources, and cofactor metabolism. Here, we have validated these predictions by demonstrating that complementation with BCAAs and specific carbon sources relieves the growth inhibitory effects of cysteine and hydrogen sulfide. We discuss how these mechanistic insights give new context to the interplay and stratification of NRB and SRB in diverse environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Climate impact on fluvial-lake system evolution, Eocene Green River Formation, Uinta Basin, Utah, USA

In light of a modern understanding of early Eocene greenhouse climate fluctuations and new highly seasonal fluvial system faces models, the role of climate in the evolution of one classically-cited continental, terminal lake system is re-examined. Detailed stratigraphic description and elemental abundance data from fifteen cores and seven outcrop regions of the Green River Formation were used to construct a ~150 km cross section across the Uinta Basin, Utah, USA. Lake Uinta in the Uinta Basin is divided into five lake phases: (1) post-Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum, (2) peak Eocene hyperthermal, (3) waning hyperthermal, Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), (4) post-hyperthermal, and (5) post-EECO regimes, based primarily on climatically driven changes in fluvial style in combination with sedimentary indicators of lacustrine carbonate deposition, organic matter preservation, salinity, and lake depth. Basinwide siliciclastic dominated intervals were deposited by highly seasonal fluvial systems and record negative organic carbon isotope excursions associated with early Eocene abrupt, transient global warming (hyperthermal) events. Carbonate dominated or organic rich intervals record stable, less seasonal climate periods between hyperthermals, with lower siliciclastic sediment supply allowing the development of carbonate and organic matter preservation. The stratigraphic progression from alternating organic rich and lean zones to the overlying organic rich Mahogany and R8 zones represents the global transition out of the pulsed early Eocene hyperthermal climate regime to a time of sediment starvation and lake stratification, sequestering sedimentary organic carbon. This study provides a novel approach to terrestrial paleoclimate reconstruction that relies largely on unique sedimentary indicators and secondarily on isotopic proxy records within the context of a large basin-wide sedimentologic and stratigraphic data set, thus setting the stage for future detailed geochemical terrestrial paleoclimate proxy development.

Geology↗

Desiccation cracks provide evidence of lake drying on Mars, Sutton Island member, Murray formation, Gale Crater

Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover data are used to describe the morphology of desiccation cracks observed in ancient lacustrine strata at Gale crater, Mars, and to interpret their paleoenvironmental setting. The desiccation cracks indicate subaerial exposure of lacustrine facies in the Sutton Island member of the Murray formation. In association with ripple cross-stratification and possible eolian cross-bedding, these facies indicate a transition from longer-lived perennial lakes recorded by older strata to younger lakes characterized by intermittent exposure. The transition from perennial to episodically exposed lacustrine environments provides evidence for local to regional climate change that can help constrain Mars climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Self-action of Bessel wave packets in a system of coupled light guides and formation of light bullets

The self-action of two-dimensional and three-dimensional Bessel wave packets in a system of coupled light guides is considered using the discrete nonlinear Schrödinger equation. The features of the self-action of such wave fields are related to their initial strong spatial inhomogeneity. The numerical simulation shows that for the field amplitude exceeding a critical value, the development of an instability typical of a medium with the cubic nonlinearity is observed. Various regimes are studied: the self-channeling of a wave beam in one light guide at powers not strongly exceeding a critical value, the formation of the “kaleidoscopic” picture of a wave packet during the propagation of higher-power radiation along a stratified medium, the formation of light bullets during competition between self-focusing and modulation instabilities in the case of three-dimensional wave packets, etc. In the problem of laser pulse shortening, the situation is considered when the wave-field stratification in the transverse direction dominates. This process is accompanied by the self-compression of laser pulses in well enough separated light guides. The efficiency of conversion of the initial Bessel field distribution to two flying parallel light bullets is about 50%.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Predictive analytics to direct clinical attention to complex patients with elevated suicide risk: enhancement of the Veterans Health Administration REACH VET model

Suicide is a major public health concern, particularly among Veterans. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employs the Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health–Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) model to prioritise high-risk patients for targeted clinical attention. REACH VET 1.0 (RV 1.0) was developed on 2008–2011 data. To reflect changes in clinical practice and populations, VHA updated it to REACH VET 2.0 (RV 2.0). This study describes its development and validation. RV 2.0 used longitudinal data from 7,248,170 VHA patients (4,967 suicide deaths) in 2018–2019, with 650 time-varying demographic, clinical and area-level predictors derived from a 2-year lookback (2016–2019). An ensemble of Elastic-Net logistic regression models was trained on 2018 data and evaluated monthly at the population level in 2019, focusing on the top 0.1% intervention risk tier. Analyses assessed model discrimination, suicide detection, risk concentration, subgroup consistency (sex, age and race/ethnicity) and performance relative to RV 1.0 using the same percentile-based risk strata. RV 2.0 outperformed RV 1.0 across all risk strata, with better discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.69) and consistent performance across demographic subgroups. Within the top 0.1% of predicted risk, RV 2.0 identified more deaths, higher suicide rates and greater mortality risk concentration both when averaged across the 12 monthly 2019 test sets (5.6 vs 3.6; 83.6 vs 53.7 per 100,000 person-years; 21.0 vs 14.1) and when annualised for 2019 (67 vs 43; 2.7% vs 1.7%; 1,003 vs 644 per 100,000 person-years; 26.7 vs 17.1). RV 2.0 improves suicide risk stratification among Veterans, demonstrating better performance and consistent prediction across subgroups and highlighting the need for regular model updates and evaluation.

Peluso, Alina [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

Stand validation of lidar forest inventory modeling for a managed southern pine forest

We evaluated area-based approaches (ABAs) to light detection and ranging (lidar) predictions of plot- and stand-level forest attributes (tree count, height, basal area, volume, aboveground biomass, broadleaf/conifer, and diameter at breast height — “diameter”). ABA methods included post-stratification (PS), ordinary least squares (OLSs) regression, k nearest neighbors ( kNN), and random forest (RF). This study was conducted on the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, USA. Plot- and stand-level predictions were validated against fixed-radius 0.04 ha (0.1 acre) plots in 49 ≈2.0 ha (5 acre) stands. Our findings demonstrate that lidar can be incorporated operationally into forest inventory systems to provide stand-level inferences for a wide range of forest attributes. Volume predictions for specific diameter classes, however, often fared poorly (root mean squared error (RMSE) > 100%) for the methods we explored, especially for larger (less common) diameter trees. Stand-level results were consistently better than pixel-level results (10–200+ percentage points). kNN and RF performed similarly and better than OLS and PS, but RF was the most robust to model configurations, while kNN has practical advantages such as simultaneous predictions of many attributes.

Forestry↗